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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Estimation of the groundwater resources of the bedrock aquifers at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery, Sheboygan County, Wisconsin

Groundwater resources information was needed to understand regional aquifer systems and water available to wells and springs for rearing important Lake Michigan fish species at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery in Sheboygan County, Wisconsin. As a basis for estimating the groundwater resources available, an existing groundwater-flow model was refined, and new groundwater-flow models were developed for the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery area using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) finite-difference code MODFLOW. This report describes the origin and construction of these groundwater-flow models and their use in testing conceptual models and simulating the hydrogeologic system. The study area is in the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands geographical province of Wisconsin, and the hatchery property is situated on the southeastern edge of the Kettle Moraine, a north-south trending topographic high of glacial origin. The bedrock units underlying the study area consist of Cambrian, Ordovician, and Silurian units of carbonate and siliciclastic lithology. In the Sheboygan County area, the sedimentary bedrock sequence reaches a thickness of as much as about 1,600 feet (ft). Two aquifer systems are present at the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. A shallow system is made up of Silurian bedrock, consisting chiefly of dolomite, overlain by unconsolidated Quaternary-age glacial deposits. The glacial deposits of this aquifer system are the typical source of water to local springs, including the springs that have historically supplied the hatchery. The shallow aquifer system, therefore, consists of the unconsolidated glacial aquifer and the underlying bedrock Silurian aquifer. Most residential wells in the area draw from the Silurian aquifer. A deeper confined aquifer system is made up of Cambrian- and Ordovician-age bedrock units including sandstone formations. Because of its depth, very few wells are completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system (COAS) near the Kettle Moraine Springs State Fish Hatchery. Three groundwater-flow models were used to estimate the water resources available to the hatchery from bedrock aquifers under selected scenarios of well placement and seasonal water requirements and subject to constraints on the effects of pumping on neighboring wells, local springs, and creeks. Model input data (recharge, water withdrawal, and boundary conditions) for these models were compiled from a number of data and information sources. The first model, named the “KMS model,” (KMS stands for Kettle Moraine Springs) is an inset model derived from a published USGS regional Lake Michigan Basin model and was constructed to simulate groundwater pumping from the semiconfined Silurian aquifer. The second model, named the “Pumping Test model,” was constructed to evaluate an aquifer pumping test conducted in the COAS as part of this project. The Pumping Test model was also used to simulate the local effects of 20 years of groundwater pumping from this deep bedrock aquifer for future hatchery operations. The third model, named the “LMB modified model,” is a version of the published Lake Michigan Basin (LMB) model that was modified with aquifer parameters refined in an area around the hatchery (approximately a 5-mile radius circle, corresponding to the area stressed by the aquifer pumping test). This LMB modified model was applied to evaluate regional effects of pumping from the confined COAS. The available Silurian aquifer groundwater resource was estimated using the KMS model with three scenarios—named “AllConstraints,” “Constraints2,” and “Constraints3”—that specified local water-level and flow constraints such as drawdown at nearby household wells, water levels inside pumping well boreholes, and flow in local streams and springs. Each scenario utilized the MODFLOW Groundwater Management Process (GWM) to select three locations from six candidate locations that provided the greatest combined flow while satisfying the constraints. The three constraint scenarios provided estimates of 430 gallons per minute (gal/min), 480 gal/min, and 520 gal/min pumping from three wells—AllConstraints, Constraints2, and Constraints3, respectively. The same three wells were selected for the scenarios that estimated 480 gal/min and 520 gal/min; the scenario that estimated 430 gal/min shared two of these same wells, but the third selected well was different. The available COAS groundwater resource was estimated by two scenarios with each conducted over a period of 20 years with the Pumping Test model and the LMB modified model . The Pumping Test model was used to simulate local effects of pumping, and the LMB modified model was used to simulate regional effects of pumping. The scenarios simulate a range of total and seasonal pumping rates potentially linked to site activities. Scenario 1 simulates two wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system, each pumping for 8 months at 300 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 600 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 1 is 800 gal/min. Scenario 2 simulates three wells completed in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system pumping for 8 months at 200 gal/min, followed by pumping for 4 months at 500 gal/min. The average yearly pumping rate of Scenario 2 is 900 gal/min. The Pumping Test model simulations confirmed that drawdown in the boreholes of the pumping wells at the selected 2-well or 3-well rates will meet the desired condition that the pumping water level remains at least 100 ft above the highest Cambrian-Ordovician unit open to the well. The LMB modified model was used to evaluate the regional drawdown of the pumping from the confined COAS under the same 2-well and 3-well scenarios. At the nearest known existing COAS well, Campbellsport production well #4, the simulated drawdown for Scenario 1 after 20 years of cyclical pumping with two pumping wells averaging a total of 800 gal/min is 16.9 ft, whereas the simulated drawdown for Scenario 2 after 20 years of pumping with three pumping wells averaging a total of 900 gal/min is 19.0 ft. The total deep aquifer thickness at the Campbellsport location is on the order of 620 ft, meaning that the simulated drawdown for either scenario is about 3 percent of the confined aquifer thickness. The models developed as part of this project are archived in the project data release. The archive includes the model input and output files as well as MODFLOW source code and executables. ( Haserodt and others, 2017 ).

Wisconsin↗
USGS2014

Particle-tracking investigation of the retention of sucker larvae emerging from spawning grounds in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

This study had two objectives: (1) to use the results of an individual-based particle-tracking model of larval sucker dispersal through the Williamson River delta and Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, to interpret field data collected throughout Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, and (2) to use the model to investigate the retention of sucker larvae in the system as a function of Williamson River flow, wind, and lake elevation. This is a follow-up study to work reported in Wood and others (2014) in which the hydrodynamic model of Upper Klamath Lake was combined with an individual-based, particle-tracking model of larval fish entering the lake from spawning areas in the Williamson River. In the previous study, the performance of the model was evaluated through comparison with field data comprising larval sucker distribution collected in 2009 by The Nature Conservancy, Oregon State University (OSU), and the U.S. Geological Survey, primarily from the (at that time) recently reconnected Williamson River Delta and along the eastern shoreline of Upper Klamath Lake, surrounding the old river mouth. The previous study demonstrated that the validation of the model with field data was moderately successful and that the model was useful for describing the broad patterns of larval dispersal from the river, at least in the areas surrounding the river channel immediately downstream of the spawning areas and along the shoreline where larvae enter the lake. In this study, field data collected by OSU throughout the main body of Upper Klamath Lake, and not just around the Williamson River Delta, were compared to model simulation results. Because the field data were collected throughout the lake, it was necessary to include in the simulations larvae spawned at eastern shoreline springs that were not included in the earlier studies. A complicating factor was that the OSU collected data throughout the main body of the lake in 2011 and 2012, after the end of several years of larval drift collection in the Williamson River by the U.S. Geological Survey. Those larval drift data provided necessary boundary-condition information for the earlier studies, but there were no measured boundary conditions for larval input into model simulations during the years of this study (2011−12). Therefore, we developed a method to estimate a time series of larval drift in the Williamson River, and of the emergence of larvae from the gravel at the eastern shoreline springs, that captured the approximate timing of the larval pulse of the Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose sucker (Chasmistes brevirostris) and the relative magnitude of the pulses by species and spawning location. The method is not able to predict larval drift on any given day, but it can reasonably predict the approximate temporal progression of the larval drift through the season, based on counts of adult suckers returning to spawn. The accuracy in the timing of the larval pulses is not better than about plus or minus 5 days. Model results and field data were consistent in the basic progression of both catch per unit effort (CPUE) and larval length through time. The model simulation results also duplicated some of the characteristics of the spatial patterns of density in the field data, notably the tendency for high larval densities closer to the eastern and western shorelines. However, the model simulations could not explain high densities in the northern part of the lake or far into Ball Bay, locations that are far from the source of larvae in the Williamson River or eastern shoreline springs (as measured along the predominant transport pathways simulated in the model). This suggests the possibility of unaccounted-for spawning areas in the northern part of the lake and also that the period during which larvae are transported passively by the currents is shorter than the 46 days simulated in the model. Similarly, the progression of larval lengths in the field data is not a simple progression from smaller to larger fish away from sources in the river and springs, as simulated by the particle-tracking model; the smallest fish were caught at different times near the Williamson River, in the northwestern part of the lake, and in the southernmost part of the lake. This again suggests that fish may be spawning at places other than the river and eastern springs, that our understanding of larval transport is incomplete, or both. The model was used to run 96 numerical “experiments” in which lake elevation, river discharge, and wind forcing were varied systematically in order to investigate the sensitivity of particle retention to each variable, and with particular emphasis on the idea of managing lake elevation to control emigration. The estimates of particle retention cannot be equated directly to retention of fish larvae, primarily because there was no mortality included in the simulations, but the relative comparison of retention and emigration around the matrix of experimental conditions provided several “big picture” results: - Variables that cannot be controlled—winds and discharge—had the largest effect on retention. For example, at the lowest river discharge (20 cubic meters per second), simulated retention was high regardless of wind or lake elevation, whereas at the highest river discharge (100 cubic meters per second), retention was low regardless of wind or lake elevation. - When river discharge and wind were held constant, a higher elevation delayed the onset of the most rapid exit of particles by 1 (from the springs) to 4 (from the river) days, but did not determine overall retention. Only under the combination of conditions consisting of low discharge (50 cubic meters per second or less) and strong wind reversals for several days was there a consistent effect of lake elevation on overall retention several weeks into the simulation, and, under those conditions, retention was at the high end of the possible range regardless of lake elevation. - Under most combinations of conditions tested, after particles had been in the system for several days, the complex interaction between wind, elevation, and river discharge resulted in particle pathways, and therefore retention, being highly variable and unpredictable, at which point controlling lake elevation could not produce a predictable result. Therefore, on the basis of the model predictions, managing lake elevation probably is not a way to reliably provide any particular level of retention.

Oregon↗
USGS2006

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Water Quality in the High Plains Aquifer, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1999-2004

This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2004 assessment of water quality in the High Plains aquifer. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings for principal and other aquifers and major river basins across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is discussed in terms of local, regional, State, and national issues. Conditions in the aquifer system are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies, universities, public interest groups, or the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as drinking-water quality, the effects of agricultural practices on water quality, source-water protection, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of ground water in areas near where they live and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the region and the Nation. The water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer summarized in this report are discussed in greater detail in other reports that can be accessed in Appendix 1 of http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, collection and analytical methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report in addition to reports in this series from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa). This report accompanies the detailed and technical report of water-quality conditions in the High Plains aquifer 'Water-quality assessment of the High Plains aquifer, 1999-2004' (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1749/)

Circular↗
USGS2003

MODFLOW-2000 ground-water model-user guide to the Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction (SUB) Package

This report documents a computer program, the Subsidence and Aquifer-System Compaction (SUB) Package, to simulate aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000. The SUB Package simulates elastic (recoverable) compaction and expansion, and inelastic (permanent) compaction of compressible fine-grained beds (interbeds) within the aquifers. The deformation of the interbeds is caused by head or pore-pressure changes, and thus by changes in effective stress, within the interbeds. If the stress is less than the preconsolidation stress of the sediments, the deformation is elastic; if the stress is greater than the preconsolidation stress, the deformation is inelastic. The propagation of head changes within the interbeds is defined by a transient, one-dimensional (vertical) diffusion equation. This equation accounts for delayed release of water from storage or uptake of water into storage in the interbeds. Properties that control the timing of the storage changes are vertical hydraulic diffusivity and interbed thickness. The SUB Package supersedes the Interbed Storage Package (IBS1) for MODFLOW, which assumes that water is released from or taken into storage with changes in head in the aquifer within a single model time step and, therefore, can be reasonably used to simulate only thin interbeds. The SUB Package relaxes this assumption and can be used to simulate time-dependent drainage and compaction of thick interbeds and confining units. The time-dependent drainage can be turned off, in which case the SUB Package gives results identical to those from IBS1. Three sample problems illustrate the usefulness of the SUB Package. One sample problem verifies that the package works correctly. This sample problem simulates the drainage of a thick interbed in response to a step change in head in the adjacent aquifer and closely matches the analytical solution. A second sample problem illustrates the effects of seasonally varying discharge and recharge to an aquifer system with a thick interbed. A third sample problem simulates a multilayered regional ground-water basin. Model input files for the third sample problem are included in the appendix.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Final report: Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and Western Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis) surveys and habitat availability modeling on the Santa Clara River, California, 26 March 2020

Our project aimed to conduct population surveys for Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax trailii extimus; SWFL) and Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus; YBCU) in 2018 and 2019, apply existing habitat models to illustrate and predict past, current, and future habitat suitabilities for these two species, and update and standardize classification and mapping of riparian vegetation to reflect recent conditions along the lower 50 miles of the Santa Clara River. Models developed by Hatten and Paradzick (2003), Hatten, et al. (2010), Hatten (2016), and Johnson et al. (2016) were applied to the SCR to provide California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with useful tools for management of resources for SWFL and YBCU.

California↗
USGS2018

Interactive tool to estimate groundwater elevations in central and eastern North Dakota

This report describes an interactive tool (NDakGWtool) in which a statistical model is developed using locally weighted regression to estimate monthly mean groundwater elevations for a specified latitude and longitude, referred to as the “user-specified location.” For each user-specified location, seven models are developed for each month from April through October. Localized, high spatial-resolution maps of estimated monthly mean groundwater surface elevations are produced from the models. The tool was evaluated for glacial drift aquifers of the 32-county study area in central and eastern North Dakota. Although groundwater elevations from 1960 to 2017 were available to develop the tool, groundwater elevations from 1995 to 2015 were used for model testing and development of the model domain. There are 413 grid cells of 0.1-degree latitude by 0.1-degree longitude size in the model domain, and the tool produces maps of estimated monthly mean groundwater surface elevations for the cell containing the user-specified location. Additionally, the NDakGWtool produces maps of estimated groundwater depth below land surface and ArcGIS files of estimated groundwater surface elevations and groundwater depth below land surface. The tool is composed of four main components: data input, statistical model, output, and user-interactive process.

North Dakota↗
USGS1998

Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois

Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of impervious land cover in the watershed and errors in measuring rainfall for convective storms. Overall, the results of regional calibration and verification of the rainfall-runoff model indicate the simulated rainfall-runoff relations are adequate for stormwater-management planning and design for watersheds in Du Page County.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2025

Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Nort↗
USGS2011

Simulation of branched serial first-order decay of atrazine and metabolites in adapted and nonadapted soils

In the present study a branched serial first-order decay (BSFOD) model is presented and used to derive transformation rates describing the decay of a common herbicide, atrazine, and its metabolites observed in unsaturated soils adapted to previous atrazine applications and in soils with no history of atrazine applications. Calibration of BSFOD models for soils throughout the country can reduce the uncertainty, relative to that of traditional models, in predicting the fate and transport of pesticides and their metabolites and thus support improved agricultural management schemes for reducing threats to the environment. Results from application of the BSFOD model to better understand the degradation of atrazine supports two previously reported conclusions: atrazine (6-chloro- N -ethyl- N ′-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine) and its primary metabolites are less persistent in adapted soils than in nonadapted soils; and hydroxyatrazine was the dominant primary metabolite in most of the soils tested. In addition, a method to simulate BSFOD in a one-dimensional solute-transport unsaturated zone model is also presented.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2024

Calculation of a suspended-sediment concentration-turbidity regression model and flood-ebb suspended-sediment concentration differentials from marshes near Stone Harbor and Thompsons Beach, New Jersey, 2018–19 and 2022–23

The U.S. Geological Survey collected water velocity and water quality data from salt marshes in Great Channel, southwest of Stone Harbor, New Jersey, and near Thompsons Beach, New Jersey, to evaluate restoration effectiveness after Hurricane Sandy and monitor postrestoration marsh health. Time series data of turbidity and water velocity were collected from 2018 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023 at both sites. Water samples were collected and analyzed for suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), which was used to derive a regression model to estimate a time series of SSC data from turbidity data. The SSC time series data were then combined with the water velocity data to calculate the flood-ebb SSC differential. This report presents the data collection methods, the repeated median regression model used to estimate SSC from turbidity, and the flood-ebb SSC differential calculations.

New Jersey↗
USGS2025

Evaluating hydrologic data products for scientific and management applications related to potential future streamflow conditions in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers

The hydrology of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers is a fundamental driver of ecosystem patterns and processes across a large portion of the United States. Quantitative hydrologic data for the main stems of these rivers underlie numerous scientific investigations, statistical models, and decision-making processes for local, State, and Federal agencies involved in the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program. Although historical hydrologic data exist, data representing potential future conditions of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers lack the resolution necessary to anticipate biotic and abiotic responses to altered hydrology and to determine resilient management actions. A source of future hydrologic scenarios is the readily available LOCA–VIC–mizuRoute hydrologic data products (named for the chain of models the data are produced from—localized constructed analogs, Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model, and the mizuRoute hydrologic routing model—that we shorten further to LVM in this report) that include simulated discharges for historic and future timeframes. The objective of this study is to assess the reliability of the hydrologic data products for their use in Upper Mississippi River Restoration program applications. Key study questions are (1) do the hydrologic data products reproduce characteristics of hydrology necessary to support ecological modeling and restoration decision-making applications within the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program? and (2) are there geographic differences in the reliability of the hydrologic data products? Seven characteristics of river hydrology were selected related to flow magnitude, seasonality, and regime for evaluation. The seven characteristics were calculated using observed and historical simulated hydrologic data at 19 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages throughout the basins of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers; two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Mississippi River and two streamgages are located on the main stem of the Illinois River. Statistical comparisons between observed and historical simulated characteristics indicated that the hydrologic data products did not reliably represent historical hydrologic conditions in the basin or main stem. The hydrologic data products we evaluated could not reliably capture the overall hydrologic regime or flow magnitudes; the latter is evidenced by substantial underestimates of discharge at most streamgages. Seasonal hydrologic characteristics were captured more reliably than flow magnitude, but overall correspondence was low for most streamgages. A weak latitudinal pattern in seasonal characteristics indicated the hydrologic data products poorly represent streamflow timing in snow-affected regions of the basin. Discrepancies in magnitude, seasonality, and regime indicate the potential for multiple sources of error. Because poor correspondence was present across all 19 streamgages, it was not possible to identify specific drivers of poor performance (that is, drainage area or geography). The modeling chain should be evaluated for biases associated with meteorologic forcing data, as well as hydrologic model formulation and calibration. We conclude that the hydrologic data products we evaluated appear unsuitable for applications tied to habitat and ecosystem restoration and management in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Plans to develop a future hydrology dataset for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program would benefit from ongoing work to improve global climate model output downscaling methods, to improve hydrologic models, to make use of innovations in machine-learning approaches for projecting hydrology, and other efforts. The framework developed herein to evaluate hydrometeorological outputs generated using global climate models for a specific water resources application is a transferrable approach that could be applied to other data products and river systems.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Sout↗
USGS2012

The use of MAGSAT data to determine secular variation

A combined spatial and secular variation model of the geomagnetic field, labeled M061581, is derived from a selection of Magsat data. Secular variation (SV) data computed from linear fits to midnight hourly values from 19 magnetic observatories were also included in the analysis but were seen to have little effect on the model. The SV patterns from this new model are compared with those from the 1980 IGRF and with those for 1970 computed by the DGRF and with the 1960 patterns computed using the GSFC(12/66) model. Most of the features of the M061581 are identical in location and level with those of the 1980 IGRF. Together they confirm that the reversals in sign of field change seen over Asia and North America between 1965 and 1975 are reverting to the pre-1965 states. The M061581 model gives −32 nT/yr for the dipole decay rate, larger than the 70% increase already reported since 1965. This abnormally high value is interpreted as being a defect of the model because it appears to result from a much larger (−100 nT/yr) drop in field over the polar regions not indicated by the 1980 IGRF. This north polar decrease is shown to be of external origin as the result of a combination of the seasonal effect of the north polar ionospheric (counterclockwise) afternoon Sq p cell increasing in intensity from the beginning (November 1979) to the end (June 1980) of the Magsat data collection period, coupled with an enhancement of its effect as the orbit lowered from the 350– 550 km initial altitudes to near 200 km just prior to burnup. This experiment indicates that secular variation can be obtained from satellite data for intervals of less than a full year if corrections can be made for seasonal effects and that ‘annual snapshots’ of the field by a satellite would allow easy and accurate models of secular change without the use of any surface data.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2001

Statistical compilation of NAPAP chemical erosion observations

In the mid 1980s, the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP), in cooperation with the National Park Service (NPS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a Materials Research Program (MRP) that included a series of field and laboratory studies with the broad objective of providing scientific information on acid rain effects on calcareous building stone. Among the several effects investigated, the chemical dissolution of limestone and marble by rainfall was given particular attention because of the pervasive appearance of erosion effects on cultural materials situated outdoors. In order to track the chemical erosion of stone objects in the field and in the laboratory, the Ca 2+ ion concentration was monitored in the runoff solution from a variety of test objects located both outdoors and under more controlled conditions in the laboratory. This report provides a graphical and statistical overview of the Ca 2+ chemistry in the runoff solutions from (1) five urban and rural sites (DC, NY, NJ, NC, and OH) established by the MRP for materials studies over the period 1984 to 1989, (2) subevent study at the New York MRP site, (3) in situ study of limestone and marble monuments at Gettysburg, (4) laboratory experiments on calcite dissolution conducted by Baedecker, (5) laboratory simulations by Schmiermund, and (6) laboratory investigation of the surface reactivity of calcareous stone conducted by Fries and Mossotti. The graphical representations provided a means for identifying erroneous data that can randomly appear in a database when field operations are semi-automated; a purged database suitable for the evaluation of quantitative models of stone erosion is appended to this report. An analysis of the sources of statistical variability in the data revealed that the rate of stone erosion is weakly dependent on the type of calcareous stone, the ambient temperature, and the H + concentration delivered in the incident rain. The analysis also showed that the rate of stone erosion is strongly dependent on the rain-delivery conditions and on the surface morphology and orientation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Hydrology and simulation of ground-water flow, Lake Point, Tooele County, Utah

Water for new residential development in Lake Point, Utah may be supplied by public-supply wells completed in consolidated rock on the east side of Lake Point. Ground-water flow models were developed to help understand the effect the proposed withdrawal will have on water levels, flowing-well discharge, spring discharge, and ground-water quality in the study area. This report documents the conceptual and numerical ground-water flow models for the Lake Point area. The ground-water system in the Lake Point area receives recharge from local precipitation and irrigation, and from ground-water inflow from southwest of the area. Ground water discharges mostly to springs. Discharge also occurs to evapotranspiration, wells, and Great Salt Lake. Even though ground water discharges to Great Salt Lake, dense salt water from the lake intrudes under the less-dense ground water and forms a salt-water wedge under the valley. This salt water is responsible for some of the high dissolved-solids concentrations measured in ground water in Lake Point. A steady-state MODFLOW-2000 ground-water model of Tooele Valley adequately simulates water levels, ground-water discharge, and ground-water flow direction observed in Lake Point in 1969 and 2002. Simulating an additional 1,650 acre-feet per year withdrawal from wells causes a maximum projected drawdown of about 550 feet in consolidated rock near the simulated wells and drawdown exceeding 80 feet in an area encompassing most of the Oquirrh Mountains east of Lake Point. Drawdown in most of Lake Point ranges from 2 to 10 ft, but increases to more than 40 feet in the areas proposed for residential development. Discharge to Factory Springs, flowing wells, evapotranspiration, and Great Salt Lake is decreased by about 1,100 acre-feet per year (23 percent). The U.S. Geological Survey SUTRA variable-density ground-water-flow model generates a reasonable approximation of 2002 dissolved-solids concentration when simulating 2002 withdrawals. At most locations with measured dissolved-solids concentration in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter, the model simulates salt-water intrusion with similar concentrations. Simulating an additional 1,650 acre-feet per year withdrawal increased simulated dissolved-solids concentration by 200 to 1,000 milligrams per liter throughout much of Lake Point and near Fac­tory Springs at a depth of about 250 to 300 feet below land surface. The increase in dissolved-solids concentration with increased withdrawals is greater at a depth of about 700 to 800 feet and exceeds 1,000 milligrams per liter throughout most of Lake Point. At the north end of Lake Point, increases exceed 10,000 milligrams per liter.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Upper Mississippi River System hydrogeomorphic change conceptual model and hierarchical classification

Understanding the geomorphic processes and causes for long-term hydrogeomorphic changes along the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) is necessary for scientific studies ranging from habitat needs assessments, sediment transport, and nutrient processing, and making sound management decisions and prioritizing ecological restoration activities. From 2018 through 2020 the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers led a series of calls and meetings, and a workshop to develop a draft UMRS hydrogeomorphic change conceptual model and hierarchical classification scheme. This project was funded through an Upper Mississippi River Restoration 2018 science in support of restoration proposal entitled, “Conceptual Model and Hierarchical Classification of Hydrogeomorphic Settings in the Upper Mississippi River System.” This report documents the background leading up to and the major findings from the workshop. The resulting conceptual model focuses on the drivers and boundary conditions that affect the major hydrogeomorphic processes along the valley corridor using a continuum of spatial and temporal scales and resolutions. The draft hierarchical classification was based on three existing and three new nested geospatial datasets that ultimately can be used to characterize hydrogeomorphic settings that span the UMRS valley corridor. The conceptual model and hierarchical classification will help characterize recent (mid-1990s through mid-2010s) decadal-scale processes and sources for potential hydrogeomorphic change that span a range of spatial scales from watershed hydrology and sediment sources to channel hydraulics and sediment transport.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Sout↗
USGS1990

Sediment movement along the U.S. east coast continental shelf-II. Modelling suspended sediment concentration and transport rate during storms

Long-term near-bottom wave and current observations and a one-dimensional sediment transport model are used to calculate the concentration and transport of sediment during winter storms at 60-80 m water depth along the southern flank of Georges Bank and in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Calculations are presented for five stations, separated by more than 600 km alongshelf, that have different bottom sediment texture, bedforms and current conditions. A modified version of the sediment transport model presented by Grant and Glenn (1983, Technical Report to the American Gas Association), Glenn (1983, D.Sc. Thesis, M.I.T.), and Glenn and Grant (1987, Journal of Geophysical Research, 92, 8244-8264) is used to examine the influence of wave-current interaction, sediment stratification, and limitations on the erodibility of the bottom sediments on the concentration of sediment in the water column and on transport. Predicted suspended sediment concentrations are higher than observed, based on beam transmissometer measurements, unless an erosion limit of order a few millimeters for sediments finer than 94 ??m is imposed. The agreement between predicted and measured beam attenuation is better at stations that have significant amounts of silt plus clay in the surficial sediments than for stations with sandy sediments. Sediment concentrations during storms estimated by Moody et al. (1987, Continental Shelf Research, 7, 609-628) are within 50% of the model predictions. Sediment transport rates for sediments 94 ??m and finer are determined largely by the concentrations in the surficial sediment and the erosion depth limit. Large alongshelf transports in the direction of storm-driven currents are inferred for stations in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. During a 115-day period in winter 1979-1980, the net transport of sediment along the shelf was westward; benthic storms (defined as periods when the bottom wave stress exceeded the current stress by 2 dyn cm-2) occurred between 23 and 73% of the time, and greater than 91% of the net alongshelf transport was during storms. ?? 1990.

Georges Bank, Mid-Atlantic Bight↗
USGS2008

Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of a Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) for Spatially Distributed Modeling of Phosphorus in South Florida Peat Marsh Wetlands

Alterations to the predevelopment delivery of water and nutrients into the Everglades of southern Florida have been occurring for nearly a century. Major regional drainage projects, large-scale agricultural development, and changes to the hydrology of the Kissimmee River-Lake Okeechobee watershed have resulted in substantial phosphorus transport increases by surface waters. Excess phosphorus has accumulated in the soils of northern Everglades marshes to levels that have impaired the natural resources of the region. Regulations now limit the amount of phosphorous that enters the Everglades through an extensive network of water-control structures. This study involved the development and application of water-quality modeling components that may be applied to existing hydrologic models of southern Florida to evaluate the effects of different management scenarios. The result of this work is a spatially distributed water-quality model for phosphorus transport and cycling in wetlands. The model solves the advection-dispersion equation on an unstructured triangular mesh and incorporates a wide range of user-selectable mechanisms for phosphorus uptake and release parameters. In general, the phosphorus model contains transfers between stores; examples of stores that can be included are soil, water column (solutes), pore water, macrophytes, suspended solids (plankton), and biofilm. Examples of transfers are growth, senescence, settling, diffusion, and so forth, described with first order, second order, and Monod types of transformations. Local water depths and velocities are determined from an existing two-dimensional, overland-flow hydrologic model. The South Florida Water Management District Regional Simulation Model was used in this study. The model is applied to three case studies: intact cores of wetland soils with water, outdoor mesocosoms, and a large constructed wetland; namely, Cell 4 of Stormwater Treatment Area 1 West (STA-1W Cell 4). Different levels of complexity in the phosphorus cycling mechanisms were simulated in these case studies using different combinations of phosphorus reaction equations. Changes in water column phosphorus concentrations observed under the controlled conditions of laboratory incubations, and mesocosm studies were reproduced with model simulations. Short-term phosphorus flux rates and changes in phosphorus storages were within the range of values reported in the literature, whereas unknown rate constants were used to calibrate the model output. In STA-1W Cell 4, the dominant mechanism for phosphorus flow and transport is overland flow. Over many life cycles of the biological components, however, soils accrue and become enriched in phosphorus. Inflow total phosphorus concentrations and flow rates for the period between 1995 and 2000 were used to simulate Cell 4 phosphorus removal, outflow concentrations, and soil phosphorus enrichment over time. This full-scale application of the model successfully incorporated parameter values derived from the literature and short-term experiments, and reproduced the observed long-term outflow phosphorus concentrations and increased soil phosphorus storage within the system. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the model was performed using modern techniques such as a qualitative screening tool (Morris method) and the quantitative, variance-based, Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method. These techniques allowed an in-depth exploration of the effect of model complexity and flow velocity on model outputs. Three increasingly complex levels of possible application to southern Florida were studied corresponding to a simple soil pore-water and surface-water system (level 1), the addition of plankton (level 2), and of macrophytes (level 3). In the analysis for each complexity level, three surface-water velocities were considered that each correspond to residence times for the selected area (1-kilometer long) of 2, 10, and 20

Scientific Investigations Report↗