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Ground-Water Resource Assessment in the Rio Grande de Manati Alluvial Plain, Rio Arriba Saliente Area, Puerto Rico

The alluvial aquifer within a 160-acre area of the Rio Grande de Manati alluvial plain was investigated to evaluate its potential as a water-supply source for the Barrios Rio Arriba Saliente and Pugnado Afuera, municipio of Manati, Puerto Rico. Analysis of well boring samples and the results of electric resistivity surveys indicate that the average thickness of the unconsolidated alluvial deposits in the study area is about 100 to 110 feet. The alluvium is a mixture of sand and gravel, which generally has a porosity of 0.2 to 0.35. Short-duration pump tests in small-diameter piezometers indicate that the alluvial aquifer has a hydraulic conductivity of about 200 feet per day and a transmissivity of about 7,900 feet squared per day. Analyses of water levels in piezometers, combined with stage measurements at a series of surveyed reference points along the Rio Grande de Manati channel, indicate that the water-table gradient in the alluvial aquifer is about 0.001, and that ground-water flow is generally from south to north, in the general direction of river flow. The water-table data indicate that the Rio Grande de Manati is the principal source of ground-water recharge to the alluvial aquifer in the study area. Because base flow for the Rio Grande de Manati is usually greater than 44 cubic feet per second, a continuous withdrawal rate of 0.5 to 1.0 cubic foot per second (225 to 450 gallons per minute) from a production well is possible. Chemical analysis of a ground-water sample indicates that the alluvial aquifer water meets U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary standards for selected constituents. Bacteriological analysis of ground-water samples indicates that the ground water contains little or no fecal coliform or fecal streptococcus bacteria. Although long-term data from upstream of the study area indicate high levels of fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus prior to 1996, bacteriological analyses of Rio Grande de Manati water samples obtained during the present study indicate that fecal coliform and fecal streptococcus concentrations are within the standards for surface water intended for use (or with the potential for use) as a raw source of public water supply in Puerto Rico. If a production well were constructed in the study area, it would be located close to the river channel (within 500 to 800 feet). Pumping from the porous and permeable alluvial aquifer close to the river channel could substantially enhance recharge from the Rio Grande de Manati channel to the aquifer. Enhanced recharge could shorten travel times for ground water in the aquifer, which might not allow sufficient time to attenuate bacteria and viruses. Travel times for bacteria moving from the river channel to a hypothetical production well were estimated using the numerical transport model MODFLOW/MT3DMS with an uncalibrated model of the alluvial aquifer. The model assumes a well pumping at 1 cubic foot per second. The transport of particles from the river to the well is most sensitive to the porosity of the aquifer and the pumping rate of the well. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a decrease in pumpage will increase the time of travel for particles to move from the river to the pumping well. The model indicates that the leading edge of a plume would reach the production well in about 40 days assuming a porosity of 0.20, 60 days assuming a porosity of 0.275, and about 70 days assuming a porosity of 0.35. If the well were moved 50 feet further from the river, the leading edge of the plume would reach the well in about 50 days assuming a porosity of 0.20 and about 70 days assuming a porosity of 0.275. These estimates are considered worse case estimates because no decay rate was included in the simulation, and because the hypothetical well was located in the center of the alluvial plain rather than further eastward, away from the river channel.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Conjunctive-use optimization model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is a water-bearing assemblage of gravels and sands that underlies about 32,000 square miles of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Because of the heavy demands placed on the aquifer, several large cones of depression have formed in the potentiometric surface, resulting in lower well yields and degraded water quality in some areas. A ground-water flow model of the alluvial aquifer was previously developed for an area covering 3,826 square miles, extending south from the Arkansas River into the southeastern corner of Arkansas, parts of northeastern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. The flow-model results indicated that continued ground-water withdrawals at rates commensurate with those of 1997 could not be sustained indefinitely without causing water levels to decline below half the original saturated thickness of the aquifer. Conjunctive-use optimization modeling was applied to the flow model of the alluvial aquifer to develop withdrawal rates that could be sustained relative to the constraints of critical ground-water area designation. These withdrawal rates form the basis for estimates of sustainable yield from the alluvial aquifer and from rivers specified within the alluvial aquifer model. A management problem was formulated as one of maximizing the sustainable yield from all ground-water and surface-water withdrawal cells within limits imposed by plausible withdrawal rates, and within specified constraints involving hydraulic head and streamflow. Steady-state conditions were selected because the maximized withdrawals are intended to represent sustainable yield of the system (a rate that can be maintained indefinitely).One point along the Arkansas River and one point along Bayou Bartholomew were specified for obtaining surface-water sustainable-yield estimates within the optimization model. Streamflow constraints were specified at two river cells based on average 7-day low flows with 10-year recurrence intervals. Sustainable-yield estimates were affected by the allowable upper limit on withdrawals from wells specified in the optimization model. Withdrawal rates were allowed to increase to 200 percent of the withdrawal rate in 1997. As the overall upper limit is increased, the sustainable yield generally increases. Tests with the optimization model show that without limits on pumping, wells adjacent to sources of water, such as large rivers, would have optimal withdrawal rates that were orders of magnitude larger than rates corresponding to those of 1997. Specifying an upper withdrawal limit of 100 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 70.3 million cubic feet per day, which is about 96 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997 (73.5 million cubic feet per day). If the upper withdrawal limit is increased to 150 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 80.6 million cubic feet per day, which is about 110 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997. If the upper withdrawal limit is increased to 200 percent of the 1997 withdrawal rate, the sustainable yield from ground water for the entire study area is 110.2 million cubic feet per day, which is about 150 percent of the amount withdrawn in 1997. Total sustainable yield from the Arkansas River and Bayou Bartholomew is about 4,900 million cubic feet per day, or about 6,700 percent of the amount of ground-water withdrawn in 1997. The large, sustainable yields from surface water represent a potential source of water that could supplement ground water and meet the total water demand. Unmet demand (defined as the difference between the optimized withdrawal rate or sustainable yield, and the anticipated demand) was calculated using different demand rates based on multiples of the 1997-withdrawal rate. Assuming that demand is the 1997 withdrawal rate, and that sustainable-

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Recalibration of a ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas, 1918-1998, with simulations of water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals through 2049

A digital model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas was used to simulate ground-water flow for the period from 1918 to 2049. The model results were used to evaluate effects on water levels caused by demand for ground water from the alluvial aquifer, which has increased steadily for the last 40 years. The model results showed that water currently (1998) is being withdrawn from the aquifer at rates greater than what can be sustained for the long term. The saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer has been reduced in some areas resulting in dry wells, degraded water quality, decreased water availability, increased pumping costs, and lower well yields. The model simulated the aquifer from a line just north of the Arkansas-Missouri border to south of the Arkansas River and on the east from the Mississippi River westward to the less permeable geologic units of Paleozoic age. The model consists of 2 layers, a grid of 184 rows by 156 columns, and comprises 14,118 active cells each measuring 1 mile on a side. It simulates time periods from 1918 to 1998 along with further time periods to 2049 testing different pumping scenarios. Model flux boundary conditions were specified for rivers, general head boundaries along parts of the western side of the model and parts of Crowleys Ridge, and a specified head boundary across the aquifer further north in Missouri. Model calibration was conducted for observed water levels for the years 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998. The average absolute residual was 4.69 feet and the root-mean square error was 6.04 feet for the hydraulic head observations for 1998. Hydraulic-conductivity values obtained during the calibration process were 230 feet per day for the upper layer and ranged from 230 to 730 feet per day for the lower layer with the maximum mean for the combined aquifer of 480 feet per day. Specific yield values were 0.30 throughout the model and specific storage values were 0.000001 inverse-feet throughout the model. Areally specified recharge rates ranged from 0 to about 30 inches and total recharge increased from 1972 to 1998 by a factor of about four. Water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals were simulated using the calibrated model. Simulations represented a period of 50 years into the future in three scenarios with either unchanged pumpage, pumpage increased by historic trends, or pumpage increased by historic trends except in two areas of the Grand Prairie. If pumping remains at 1997 rates, this produces extreme water-level declines (areas where model cells have gone dry or where the water level in the aquifer is equal to or less than the original saturated thickness, assuming confined conditions in the aquifer everywhere in the formation in predevelopment times) in the aquifer in two areas of the aquifer (one in the Grand Prairie area between the Arkansas and White Rivers and the other west of Crowleys Ridge along the Cache River) with about 400 square miles going dry. Increasing the pumping rates to that which would be projected using historic data led to increased extreme water-level declines in both areas with about 1,300 square miles going dry. Declines in both scenarios generally occurred most rapidly between 2009 and 2019. Reducing the pumping rates to 90 percent of that used for projected historic rates in areas between the Arkansas and White Rivers relating to two diversion projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other agencies did little to decrease the extreme water-level declines. However, these pumpage reductions are small (amounting to about 16 percent of the reductions that could result from implementation of these diversion projects).

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of ground-water flow and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the New Jersey coastal plain

The confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain are sands that range in thickness from 50 to 600 feet and are separated by confining units. The confining units are composed of silts and clays that range in thickness from 500 to 1,000 feet. The aquifers are recharged by precipitation on their outcrop areas. This water then flows laterally downdip and vertically to the deeper confined aquifers. The confined aquifers ultimately discharge to the Raritan and Delaware Bays and to the Atlantic Ocean. In 1988, ground-water withdrawals from confined and unconfined New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers were approximately 345 million gallons per day, more than 75 percent of which was pumped from the confined aquifers. These withdrawals have created large cones of depression in several Coastal Plain aquifers near populated areas, particularly in Camden and Monmouth Counties. The continued decline of water levels in confined aquifers can cause saltwater intrusion, reduce stream discharge near the outcrop areas, and threaten the quality of the ground-water supply. SHARP, a quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference computer model that can simulate freshwater and saltwater flow, was used to simulate the ground-water flow system in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, including the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface in nine aquifers and eight intervening confining units. The freshwater-saltwater interface is defined as the hypothetical line seaward of which the chloride concentration is equal to or greater than 10,000 milligrams per liter. Model simulations were used to estimate the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface resulting from (1) eustatic sea-level changes over the past 84,000 years, (2) ground-water withdrawals from 1896 through 1988, (3) and future ground-water withdrawals from 1988 to 2040 from Coastal Plain aquifers. Simultion results showed that the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface are more dependent on the historical sea level than on the stresses imposed on the flow system by ground-water withdrawals from the Coastal Plain aquifers from 1896 to 1988. Results of a predictive simulation in which pumpage from existing wells was increased by 30 percent indicate that additional withdrawals from each of the eight confined aquifers in the Coastal Plain would broaden and deepen the existing cones of depression and result in significant drawdowns from the 1988 potentiometric surfaces. Drawdowns of 30 feet were simulated at the center of the cone of depression in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers in Camden and Ocean Counties. Simulated drawdowns exceeded 80 feet at the center of the cone of depression in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel and Englishtown aquifers in Monmouth County. Drawdowns of 30 feet were simulated in the lower Kirkwood-Cohansey and confined Kirkwood aquifers in Cape May County. Simulation results showed that the increase in ground-water withdrawals would result in only minimal movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface by 2040, despite large drawdowns.

New Jersey↗

Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system. The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 Underground Test Areas. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work. The methods presented in this report are used in three ways. (1) The ratings for individual observations are obtained by manipulating the measures of prediction uncertainty, and do not involve recalibrating the model. In this analysis, observation locations are each omitted individually and the resulting increase in uncertainty in the predictions is calculated. The uncertainty is quantified as standard deviations on the simulated advective transport. The increase in uncertainty is quantified as the percent increase in the standard deviations caused by omitting the one observation location from the calculation of standard deviations. In general, observation locations associated with larger increases are rated as more important. (2) Ratings for largely geographically based groups are obtained using a straightforward extension of the method used for individual observation locations. This analysis is needed where observations are clustered to determine whether the area is important to the predictions of interest. (3) Finally, the method is used to evaluate omitting a set of 100 observation locations. The locations were selected because they had low individual ratings and were not one of the few locations at which hydraulic heads from deep in the system were measured. The major results of the three analyses, when applied to the three-layer DVRFS ground-water flow system, are described in the following paragraphs. The discussion is labeled using the numbers 1 to 3 to clearly relate it to the three ways the method is used, as listed above. (1) The individual observation location analysis indicates that three observation locations are most important. They are located in Emigrant Valley, Oasis Valley, and Beatty. Of importance is that these and other observations shown to be important by this analysis are far from the travel paths considered. This displays the importance of the regional setting within which the transport occurs, the importance of including some sites throughout the area in the monitoring network, and the importance of including sites in these areas in particular. The method considered in this report indicates that the 19 observation locations that reflect hydraulic heads deeper in the system (in model layers 1, 2, and 3) are not very important. This appears to be because the locations of these observations are in the vicinity of shallow observation locations that also generally are rated as low importance, and because the model layers are hydraulically well connected vertically. The value of deep observations to testing conceptual models, however, is stressed. As a result, the deep observations are rated higher than is consistent with the results of the analysis presented, and none of these observations are omitted in the scenario discussed under (3) below. (2) The geographic grouping of th

California, Nevada↗

Projected effects of proposed chloride-control projects on shallow ground water– Preliminary results for the Wichita River basin, Texas

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' plan to control the natural chloride pollution in the Wichita River basin includes the construction of Truscott Brine Lake on a tributary of the North Wichita River. In connection with the proposed brine lake, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to: (1) Define the existing ground-water conditions in the shallow fresh-water system of the project area; and (2) project the post-construction effects of the proposed lake on the fresh-water aquifer, especially in relation to hydraulic-head changes but also with respect to possible changes in the chemical quality of the ground water. The fresh-water aquifer in the project area is a shallow water-table system with relatively fresh water (generally a calcium sulfate type) that contains approximately 500 to 5,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The aquifer consists of Permian rocks with very small values of hydraulic conductivity and overlies a brine system (sodium chloride type) that is even less permeable. A thin transition zone separates the fresh-water aquifer and the brine system. Small quantities of infiltration from precipitation throughout the area's watershed constitute the recharge to the aquifer. Discharge from the aquifer consists of the small base flow along creeks; well discharge is negligible. Two-dimensional mathematical computer models were developed for aquifer simulation of: (1) Steady-state conditions in a fresh-water system and (2) transient conditions in a brine- fresh-water system where the density effects of the brine are considered. The main results 'of projecting the effects of the proposed Truscott Brine Lake on the fresh-water aquifer are: (1) Hydraulic head rises of 5 to 40 feet would be confined to areas near the proposed dam and along the lake shoreline, and (2) migration of salt water downstream from the dam generally would be limited to less than 1 mile and apparently would not reach equilibrium during the 100-year duration of the project. The modeling efforts did not include possible effects related to hydrodynamic dispersion in the brine- fresh-water system. Possible changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, due to physical and chemical interactions in the brine and fresh-water environments, also were not considered.

Texas↗

Hydrogeologic and geochemical characteristics of the Ogallala and White River aquifers, Cheyenne, Wyoming

The Ogallala aquifer and the underlying White River aquifer are important ground-water resources of public and private drinking water in the Cheyenne, Wyoming area. In 1997, as part of a cooperative project between the Cheyenne Board of Public Utilities and the U.S. Geological Survey, a well was installed to develop information for those two aquifers. Information provided for the Ogallala aquifer included core descriptions, geophysical logs, water levels, aquifer transmissivity, water quality, isotopic analysis, and geochemical modeling. Information for the White River aquifer was limited to core descriptions and geophysical logs.Evaluation of the core obtained from the drill hole showed the sediments to be primarily sands, silts, and clays. The thickness of the Ogallala Formation at the well site was estimated to be 246 feet. Water levels and precipitation from October 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999 indicated that water levels responded to precipitation. During that time, water levels ranged from 6,002.41 feet to 6,004.27 feet above mean sea level. The transmissivity was estimated to be 1.1 feet squared/day. The temperature differences between the municipal water and the Ogallala aquifer water were examined in relation to selected hydraulic conductivities and it was found that the warmer municipal water would slightly increase the hydraulic conductivity if the water were injected into the Ogallala aquifer.The water quality of a sample from the Ogallala 1 well indicated the predominant major ions were calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate. Isotopic analyses of hydrogen-2, tritium, chlorine-36, carbon-14, and carbon-13 indicated the water was a mixture of pre- and post-1953 recharge. A simple geochemical mixing model indicated there was the potential for dissolution of anhydrite, calcite, gypsum, and dolomite and precipitation of goethite, hematite, pyrolusite, and amorphous ferric hydroxide if municipal and Ogallala aquifer waters were mixed.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Application of digital profile modeling techniques to ground-water solute transport at Barstow, California

This study investigated the use of a two-dimensional profile-oriented water-quality model for the simulation of head and water-quality changes through the saturated thickness of an aquifer. The profile model is able to simulate confined or unconfined aquifers with nonhomogeneous anisotropic hydraulic conductivity, nonhomogeneous specific storage and porosity, and nonuniform saturated thickness. An aquifer may be simulated under either steady or nonsteady flow conditions provided that the ground-water flow path along which the longitudinal axis of the model is oriented does not move in the aquifer during the simulation time period. The profile model parameters are more difficult to quantify than are the corresponding parameters for an areal-oriented water-fluality model. However, the sensitivity of the profile model to the parameters may be such that the normal error of parameter estimation will not preclude obtaining acceptable model results. Although the profile model has the advantage of being able to simulate vertical flow and water-quality changes in a single- or multiple-aquifer system, the types of problems to which it can be applied is limited by the requirements that (1) the ground-water flow path remain oriented along the longitudinal axis of the model and (2) any subsequent hydrologic factors to be evaluated using the model must be located along the land-surface trace of the model. Simulation of hypothetical ground-water management practices indicates that the profile model is applicable to problem-oriented studies and can provide quantitative results applicable to a variety of management practices. In particular, simulations of the movement and dissolved-solids concentration of a zone of degraded ground-water quality near Barstow, Calif., indicate that halting subsurface disposal of treated sewage effluent in conjunction with pumping a line of fully penetrating wells would be an effective means of controlling the movement of degraded ground water.

Water Supply Paper↗

Simulation of ground-water flow and pumpage in Kings and Queens Counties, Long Island, New York

The potential effects of using ground water as a supplemental source of supply in Kings and Queens Counties were evaluated through a 4-layer finite-difference ground-water-flow model with a uniform grid spacing of 1,333 feet. Hydraulic properties and boundary conditions of an existing regional ground-water-flow model of Long Island with a uniform grid spacing of 4,000 feet were refined for use in the finer grid model of Kings and Queens Counties. The model is calibrated to average pumping stresses that correspond to presumed steady-state conditions of 1983 and 1991. A transient-state simulation of the year-by- year transition between these two conditions was also conducted. Pumping scenarios representing public-supply withdrawals of 100, 150, and 400 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) were simulated to determine the duration of sustainable pumpage, defined as the length of time before a particular pumping rate induces landward hydraulic gradients from areas of salty ground water. The simulations indicate the following hydrologically feasible scenarios: (1) Pumpage of 100 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 10 months, followed by a 46-month period of pumping at reduced (1991) rates, to allow water levels to recover to 90 percent of 1991 levels. (2) Pumpage of 150 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 6 months, followed by a 79-month period of pumping at a reduced (1991) rate. (3) Pumpage of 400 Mgal/d could be sustained for about 3 months from an initial condition of maximum aquifer storage. Each of these scenarios could be modified by injecting surplus water from upstate reservoirs, available from January to May, into the proposed wells. Injection at half the pumpage rate during the recovery period reduces the recovery period to 14 months in scenario 1, 6 months in scenario 2, and 9 months in scenario 3.

New York↗

Geophysical framework investigations influencing ground-water resources in east-central Nevada and west-central Utah, with a section on geologic and geophysical basin by basin descriptions

A geophysical investigation was undertaken as part of an effort to characterize the geologic framework influencing ground-water resources in east-central Nevada and west-central Utah. New gravity data were combined with existing aeromagnetic, drill-hole, and geologic data to help determine basin geometry, infer structural features, estimate depth to pre-Cenozoic basement rocks, and further constrain the horizontal extents of exposed and buried plutons. In addition, a three-dimensional (3D) geologic model was constructed to help illustrate the often complex geometries of individual basins and aid in assessing the connectivity of adjacent basins. In general, the thirteen major valleys within the study area have axes oriented north-south and frequently contain one or more sub-basins. These basins are often asymmetric and typically reach depths of 2 km. Analysis of gravity data helped delineate geophysical lineaments and accommodation zones. Structural complexities may further compartmentalize ground-water flow within basins and the influence of tectonics on basin sedimentation further complicates their hydrologic properties. The horizontal extent of exposed and, in particular, buried plutons was estimated over the entire study area. The location and subsurface extents of these plutons will be very important for regional water resource assessments, as these features may act as either barriers or pathways for groundwater flow. A previously identified basement gravity low strikes NW within the study area and occurs within a highly extended terrane between the Butte and Confusion synclinoria. Evidence from geophysical, geologic, and seismic reflection data suggests relatively lower density plutonic rocks may extend to moderate crustal depths and rocks of similar composition may be the source of the entire basement gravity anomaly.

Nevada, Utah↗

Hydrogeology, water quality, and ground-water-development alternatives in the upper Wood River ground-water reservoir, Rhode Island

The 72.4-square-mile Upper Wood River study area is in the Pawcatuck River basin in southern Rhode Island. Stratified drift is the only principal geologic unit capable of producing yields greater than 0.5 Mgal/d. Transmissivity of the aquifer ranges from 7,600 to 49,200 sq ft/d. Water-table conditions prevail and the aquifer is in good hydraulic connection with perennial streams and ponds. Groundwater and surface water in the study area are generally suitable for most uses. Water is soft, slightly acidic, and contains less than 150 mg/L dissolved solids. Locally, however, groundwater has been contaminated with nitrate, chloride, and volatile organic compounds. A model of the groundwater-flow system was used to evaluate the effect of alternative schemes of groundwater development on water levels, pond levels, and streamflow. Till contacts were simulated as specified-flux boundaries, drainage divides as no-flow boundaries, and streams as leaky boundaries. The areas most favorable for development of 1 Mgal/d are along the Flat and Wood Rivers. From 50 to 65 percent of the water withdrawn from wells would be derived from induced recharge. Results of simulation of development alternatives indicate that the groundwater reservoir could sustain withdrawals of 6 to 12 Mgal/d from 11 wells under long-term average annual (1942-89) and simulated drought (1963-66) conditions without causing water-level declines of greater than 25 percent of the unstressed saturated thickness of the aquifer. Pumping 12 Mgal/d, however, would reduce flow of the Wood River at the basin outlet by an amount almost equal to the 7-day, 10-yr low flow of 20.4 cu ft/s.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Development, calibration, and testing of ground-water flow models for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas using one-square-mile cells

Significant water-level declines in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer prompted the need to better understand the flow system in the aquifer which, in turn, led to the development of digital groundwater flow models of the alluvial aquifer. Two models were developed in the eastern Arkansas study area with the Arkansas River dividing the study area and functioning as a hydrologic boundary to the models. Both models simulate groundwater flow in one layer with recharge entering the aquifer from head-dependent surface infiltration through the overlying confining unit and from seepage through river beds. Digital models were used to simulate flow in the aquifer during seven stress periods between 1918 and 1987. Pumpage used in the simulations ranged from 83,400,000 to 412,000,000 cu ft/d in the north model and from 12,800,000 to 58,500,000 cu ft/d in the south model. Three different spatial and temporal pumpage scenarios were tested to simulate pumpage stress in the models. The pumpage distribution used in the calibrated model was based on a combination of all three scenarios. Several criteria were used during model development to determine how well the model simulated conditions in the aquifer. Potentiometric maps of model-computed water levels were compared to measured data to check the computed water levels and direction of flow. Hydrographs of observation wells were compared to computed water levels at corresponding model cells to assess the temporal distribution of pumpage. A root-mean-square error analysis was performed during calibration by comparing observation-well and model-computed water levels for 1972. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the effects of changes in input parameters on computed heads (water levels). Both models were sensitive to changes in recharge and pumpage but the south model generally was less sensitive than the north model.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeology and simulated effects of ground-water development on an unconfined aquifer in the Closed Basin Division, San Luis Valley, Colorado

Wells completed in an unconfined aquifer in the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley Project, Colorado, are expected to provide about 101,800 acre-ft of groundwater/year to the Rio Grande when this project is completed. Lowering of groundwater levels in the unconfined aquifer is expected to decrease the quantity of groundwater that is lost by evapotranspiration. The aquifer system, which consists of an unconfined aquifer that is 50 to 130 ft thick, overlies a thick, leaky confined aquifer. Groundwater moves from the edge of the valley toward a topographic low near the center of the Closed Basin Division, where it is lost by evapotranspiration. A two-dimensional groundwater flow model was used to evaluate the effects of projected withdrawal of about 141 cu ft/sec by 168 wells throughout a 20-year period. The simulated pumpage resulted in a projected drawdown greater than 0.1 ft in the water-levels of the unconfined aquifer over an area of about 370 sq mi. Maximum simulated drawdown was 25 ft. Simulations indicate that about 66 % of the water to be withdrawn from the unconfined aquifer would be derived from decreases of evapotranspiration, 26% from induced leakage from an underlying confined aquifer, and 8% from storage of the unconfined aquifer. Model simulations were based only on withdrawals from wells completed in the unconfined aquifer. Pumpage from the confined aquifer was not simulated. Upward leakage from the confined aquifer predicted by the model, results from the simulated declines of the potentiometric surface in the unconfined aquifer. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Regional analysis of ground-water recharge

A modeling analysis of runoff and ground-water recharge for the arid and semiarid southwestern United States was performed to investigate the interactions of climate and other controlling factors and to place the eight study-site investigations into a regional context. A distributed-parameter water-balance model (the Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) was used in the analysis. Data requirements of the BCM included digital representations of topography, soils, geology, and vegetation, together with monthly time-series of precipitation and air-temperature data. Time-series of potential evapotranspiration were generated by using a submodel for solar radiation, taking into account topographic shading, cloudiness, and vegetation density. Snowpack accumulation and melting were modeled using precipitation and air-temperature data. Amounts of water available for runoff and ground-water recharge were calculated on the basis of water-budget considerations by using measured- and generated-meteorologic time series together with estimates of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil geologic units. Calculations were made on a computational grid with a horizontal resolution of about 270 meters for the entire 1,033,840 square-kilometer study area. The modeling analysis was composed of 194 basins, including the eight basins containing ground-water recharge-site investigations. For each grid cell, the BCM computed monthly values of potential evapotranspiration, soil-water storage, in-place ground-water recharge, and runoff (potential stream flow). A fixed percentage of runoff was assumed to become recharge beneath channels operating at a finer resolution than the computational grid of the BCM. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1941 to 2004 were used to explore climatic variability in runoff and ground-water recharge. The selected approach provided a framework for classifying study-site basins with respect to climate and dominant recharge processes. The average climate for all 194 basins ranged from hyperarid to humid, with arid and semiarid basins predominating (fig. 6, chapter A, this volume). Four of the 194 basins had an aridity index of dry subhumid; two of the basins were humid. Of the eight recharge-study sites, six were in semiarid basins, and two were in arid basins. Average-annual potential evapotranspiration showed a regional gradient from less than 1 m/yr in the northeastern part of the study area to more than 2 m/yr in the southwestern part of the study area. Average-annual precipitation was lowest in the two arid-site basins and highest in the two study-site basins in southern Arizona. The relative amount of runoff to in-place recharge varied throughout the study area, reflecting differences primarily in soil water-holding capacity, saturated hydraulic conductivity of subsoil materials, and snowpack dynamics. Climatic forcing expressed in El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices strongly influenced the generation of precipitation throughout the study area. Positive values of both indices correlated with the highest amounts of runoff and ground-water recharge.

Professional Paper↗

Potentiometric Surface of the Ozark Aquifer near Springfield, Missouri, 2006-07

INTRODUCTION A study of the water resources of the Springfield, Missouri, area in the 1970s determined that a cone of depression, formed by ground-water pumping, had developed in the Ozark aquifer beneath the city (Emmett and others, 1978). Continued ground-water usage in the 1970s and 1980s caused concern that ground-water resources would not be sufficient to meet the future needs of Springfield, Missouri, during periods of drought. As a result, a ground-water flow model of the Springfield area was developed by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) to assess the future role of ground water as a water source for the area (Imes, 1989). Results of the USGS model led to a decision by the City Utilities of Springfield to primarily rely on surface water from Stockton Lake as a source of city drinking water. Municipal and industrial ground-water usage continues in Springfield, but at lower rates than previously experienced (Jim Vandike, Missouri Department of Natural Resources, written commun., 2007). Rapid growth in the area has caused commercial, industrial, and domestic water use to increase. Population growth has been especially rapid in Nixa, Ozark, and Republic, and water use in the vicinity of these cities has grown an estimated 39 percent since 1990 (Dintelmann and others, 2006). Unlike Springfield, ground water is the primary source of water for these cities. The increased stress on the Ozark aquifer, the primary aquifer in the study area, has raised new concerns about possible further water-level declines in the areas of increased ground-water use. Although there continues to be new development in the Ozark aquifer, since 1987 no new water-supply wells that produce water from the Springfield Plateau aquifer have been allowed to be constructed in most of Greene and northern Christian counties (Jim Vandike, Missouri Department of Natural Resources, written commun., 2007). There is concern that if the potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer continues to decline, increased leakage of contaminants into the Ozark aquifer from the overlying Springfield Plateau aquifer could occur (Jim Vandike, Missouri Department of Natural Resources, written commun., 2007). To address this concern, the USGS, in cooperation with Greene County, Missouri, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, constructed a map of the potentiometric surface of the Ozark aquifer for 2006?2007. The map can be compared to previously constructed potentiometric-surface maps by Emmett and others (1978) and Imes (1989) to evaluate changes in ground-water flow directions, but the comparison is beyond the scope of this report.

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Ground-Water Availability in the Wailuku Area, Maui, Hawai'i

Most of the public water supply in Maui, Hawai'i, is from a freshwater lens in the Wailuku area of the island. Because of population growth, ground-water withdrawals from wells in this area increased from less than 10 Mgal/d during 1970 to about 23 Mgal/d during 2006. In response to increased withdrawals from the freshwater lens in the Wailuku area, water levels declined, the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater became shallower, and the chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells increased. These responses led to concern over the long-term sustainability of withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. A three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow and transport model was developed to simulate the effects of selected withdrawal and recharge scenarios on water levels, on the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater, and on surface-water/ground-water interactions. The model was constructed using time-varying recharge, withdrawals, and ocean levels. Hydraulic characteristics used to construct the model were initially based on published estimates but ultimately were varied to obtain better agreement between simulated and measured water levels and salinity profiles in the modeled area during the period 1926-2006. Scenarios included ground-water withdrawal at 2006 and 1996 rates and locations with average recharge (based on 2000-04 land use and 1926-2004 rainfall) and withdrawal at redistributed rates and locations with several different recharge scenarios. Simulation results indicate that continuing 1996 and 2006 withdrawal distributions into the future results in decreased water levels, a thinner freshwater lens, increased salinity from pumped wells, and higher salinity at several current withdrawal sites. A redistributed withdrawal condition in which ground-water withdrawal was redistributed to maximize withdrawal and minimize salinities in the withdrawn water was determined. The redistributed withdrawal simulates 27.1 Mgal/d of withdrawal from 14 wells or well fields in the Wailuku area. Simulation results from the five scenarios that include redistributed withdrawal conditions indicate the following for the Wailuku Aquifer Sector: (1) withdrawal during times of average recharge rates cause average water levels to decrease 2-3 ft and the transition zone to become more than 200 ft shallower after 150 years; (2) a 5-yr drought condition similar to the 1998-2002 drought results in additional salinity increases after 30 years (12.5 years of normal recharge after drought conditions) but only one well has salinity increases of concern; (3) additional recharge from restored streamflow significantly increases water levels, thickens the freshwater body, and decreases salinity at withdrawal sites in the Waihe'e and 'Iao Aquifer Systems; and (4) a complete removal of irrigation recharge decreases water levels and increases salinity in the central isthmus where irrigation is reduced, but recharge through restored streams still significantly increases water levels, thickens the freshwater body, and decreases salinity at withdrawal sites in the Waihe'e and 'Iao Aquifer Systems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Nutrient Loads and Ground-Water Residence Times in an Agricultural Basin in North-Central Connecticut

Nutrient loads from ground-water discharge were studied in Broad Brook Basin, a 15.8-square mile basin in north-central Connecticut, dominated by agricultural activity. Loads were calculated, along with the travel times of ground water from recharge to discharge areas, to estimate the time required for the effects of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be observed. Most concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in Broad Brook exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ecoregion XIV nutrient criteria for streams. During the study period (1993-2004), annual loads of nitrogen from Broad Brook Basin ranged from 117,000 to 270,000 pounds (lb), and yields were about 10 times larger than those from forested basins in Connecticut. Ground-water discharge from the aquifer to the streams (base flow) during the study period was estimated with hydrograph separation and accounted for 82 percent of the total runoff from the basin. Nitrate nitrogen in base flow averaged 71 percent of the annual load of total nitrogen discharged from the basin, indicating that the largest source of nitrogen was likely from ground-water discharge. Annual loads of total phosphorus from the basin ranged from 2,330 to 14,400 lb, and yields were about five times higher than those from forested basins in Connecticut. Dissolved phosphorus averaged about 71 percent of the total phosphorus load, and ground-water discharge accounted for only as much as 40 percent of the annual load of dissolved phosphorus; therefore, phosphorus loads are dominated by stormwater-runoff events. Ground-water samples collected from 11 wells in the basin contained elevated concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen. Dissolved gas analyses indicated that little denitrification was occurring in the aquifer. Apparent ages of the ground-water samples ranged from greater than 2 to more than 50 years based on sulfur hexafluoride, tritium, and tritium/helium-3 analyses. A three-dimensional ground-water-flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking program to determine advective travel times to streams from all subareas in the basin. The model simulations indicated that about half the discharge to Broad Brook and its tributaries was recharged more than 10 years ago, and that about 8 percent of the discharge was recharged prior to 1960. The effects of changes in nitrate nitrogen loading at the water table were evaluated by applying new loading rates from urban and agricultural land and the simulated advective ground-water travel times. Five scenarios were tested: reducing estimated nitrate nitrogen concentrations in recharging ground water under urban and agricultural land areas to concentrations in forested areas; reducing estimated nitrate nitrogen concentrations under urban and agricultural land areas to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended nutrient criteria for streams; and reducing estimated nitrate nitrogen concentrations under urban and agricultural land areas by 50 percent, 10 percent, and 5 percent. Under the first two scenarios, the base-flow load of nitrate nitrogen could be reduced by 25 percent in slightly more than 5 years, although the reduction required by these scenarios is likely unrealistic. A 25-percent reduction in base-flow load of nitrate nitrogen could be achieved in about 10 years under the third scenario (where concentrations from urban and agricultural areas were reduced by 50 percent). Under this scenario, a 46-percent reduction could be achieved in about 60 years. The scenarios indicate that in this basin, and in other similar basins in Connecticut underlain by extensive glacial stratified deposits, there can be a substantial time lag between activities at the land surface and effects on the quality of water discharged to streams from ground water. This finding may be important in the expectations for water-quality improvements from land-use changes or BMPs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ground-water hydrology of the Toppenish Creek basin, Yakima Indian Reservation, Washington

A groundwater flow model was constructed for the Toppenish Creek basin aquifer system in eastern Washington. Flow was simulated in three aquifer units: (1) the confined old valley fill and shallow basalt (unit 2); (2) the underlying primary basalt (unit 3); and (3) the deep basalt (unit 4). Water levels in the overlying unconfined alluvial aquifer (unit 1) were held fixed. Calibrated transmissivities ranged from 0.01 to 0.48 foot squared per second. Calibrated storage coefficients were 0.0004 to 0.006. The confining-bed leakance ranged from 2.0 x 10 to the minus 11th power to 2.5 x 10 to the minus 10th power feet per second per foot. Under steady-state conditions (1954) annual natural recharge was about 29,000 acre-ft underflow from adjacent basins. Annual pumpage increased from less than 500 acre-ft in 1954 to an average of 19,600 acre-ft for 1971 and 1972. Pumpage caused simulated declines in unit 3 of up to 95 ft for 1955-72. Projected annual declines from 1973-77 using 1971-72 pumpage were about 0.5-1.5 ft in unit 2 and 0.2-1.5 ft in unit 3. The corresponding declines from 1978-82 were 0.2-1.2 ft and 0.2-0.8 ft, respectively. Using 1971-72 pumpage plus 12 ,400 acre-ft per year from unit 3, the calculated annual declines from 1978-82 were 1-36 ft in unit 2 and 4-20 ft in unit 3. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗