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USGS1999

Climatic impact of glacial cycle polar motion: Coupled oscillations of ice sheet mass and rotation pole position

Precessional motion of Earth's rotation axis relative to its orbit is a well-known source of long-period climatic variation. It is less well appreciated that growth and decay of polar ice sheets perturb the symmetry of the global mass distribution enough that the geographic location of the rotation axis will change by at least 15 km and possibly as much as 100 km during a single glacial cycle. This motion of the pole will change the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of temperatures. We present calculations, based on a diurnal average energy balance, which compare the summer and winter temperature anomalies due to a 1° decrease in obliquity with those due to a 1° motion of the rotation pole toward Hudson Bay. Both effects result in peak temperature perturbations of about 1° Celsius. The obliquity change primarily influences the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, while the polar motion primarily changes the annual mean temperatures. The polar motion induced temperature anomaly is such that it will act as a powerful negative feedback on ice sheet growth. We also explore the evolution of the coupled system composed of ice sheet mass and pole position. Oscillatory solutions result from the conflicting constraints of rotational and thermal stability. A positive mass anomaly on an otherwise featureless Earth is in rotational equilibrium only at the poles or the equator. The two polar equilibria are rotationally unstable, and the equatorial equilibrium, though rotationally stable, is thermally unstable. We find that with a plausible choice for the strength of coupling between the thermal and rotational systems, relatively modest external forcing can produce significant response at periods of 10 4 –10 6 years, but it strongly attenuates polar motion at longer periods. We suggest that these coupled oscillations may contribute to the observed dominance of 100 kyr glacial cycles since the mid-Pleistocene and will tend to stabilize geographic patterns that are suitable to glaciations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the M w = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ∼470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate “fault-normal” compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (∼10°) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ∼15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a M L = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudogravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ∼3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San Andreas right stepover region and at least 15 km along-strike both to the SE and NW. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have nucleated within the San Andreas right stepover, which may help explain the bilateral nature of rupture of this event. Our analysis suggests two seismic hazards for the San Francisco Peninsula in addition to the hazard associated with a M = 7 to 8 strike-slip earthquake along the San Andreas fault: the potential for a M ≈ 6 normal-faulting earthquake just 5–8 km west of San Francisco and a M = 6+ thrust faulting event in the southern peninsula.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Analysis of stress-induced oval fractures in a borehole at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 504, eastern equatorial Pacific

Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Hole 504B is located in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and extends to a total depth of 2111 m beneath the seafloor (mbsf). Several acoustic televiewer logs have been obtained in this well during successive stages of drilling, and the resulting digital images have revealed numerous oval-shaped fractures seemingly etched into the borehole wall. A theoretical examination of these stress-induced features identifies a unique and ephemeral set of stress distributions and magnitudes that are necessary for their production. Consequently, the ovals provide a basis for quantifying the magnitudes and orientations of the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses, S H and S h at this site. Vertical, truncated breakouts and horizontal tensile fractures define the spatial boundaries of the ovals. Explicit criteria for their occurrence are combined with estimates for various physical properties of the rock to yield a range of possible values for the horizontal principal stresses. The conspicuous oval geometry is completed by a curved fracture that joins the vertical and horizontal components. Its degree of curvature is delineated by the modified Griffith failure criterion and is directly related to the principal stress difference ( S H − S h ). Matching a series of type curves corresponding to specific values for ( S H − S h ) with the actual undistorted well bore images allows the magnitude of the stress difference to be further constrained. With a value for ( S H − S h ) of 45 ± 5 MPa the individual magnitudes of S H and S h are determined more precisely. Final estimates for the horizontal principal stresses in DSDP Hole 504B at a depth of 1200 mbsf are 141 MPa ≤ S H ≤ 149 MPa and 91 MPa ≤ S h ≤ 109 MPa. Stress magnitudes derived from this approach rely heavily upon the values of a variety of physical properties, and complementary laboratory measurements performed on relevant rock samples provide critical information. Uncertainties in estimating these properties translate into less precise predictions of principal stresses.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ≥ 6 and M ≥ 7 mainshocks and M ≥ 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ∼20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ∼2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large ( M ≥ 8) earthquake following a potential ( M ≥ 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform distribution over the range of observation.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Measurements of Reynolds stress profiles in unstratified tidal flow

In this paper we present a method for measuring profiles of turbulence quantities using a broadband acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP). The method follows previous work on the continental shelf and extends the analysis to develop estimates of the errors associated with the estimation methods. ADCP data was collected in an unstratified channel and the results of the analysis are compared to theory. This comparison shows that the method provides an estimate of the Reynolds stresses, which is unbiased by Doppler noise, and an estimate of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which is biased by an amount proportional to the Doppler noise. The noise in each of these quantities as well as the bias in the TKE match well with the theoretical values produced by the error analysis. The quantification of profiles of Reynolds stresses simultaneous with the measurement of mean velocity profiles allows for extensive analysis of the turbulence of the flow. In this paper, we examine the relation between the turbulence and the mean flow through the calculation of u * , the friction velocity, and C d the coefficient of drag. Finally, we calculate quantities of particular interest in turbulence modeling and analysis, the characteristic lengthscales, including a lengthscale which represents the stream-wise scale of the eddies which dominate the Reynolds stresses.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS1999

Estimates of bottom roughness length and bottom shear stress in South San Francisco Bay, California

A field investigation of the hydrodynamics and the resuspension and transport of particulate matter in a bottom boundary layer was carried out in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California, during March-April 1995. Using broadband acoustic Doppler current profilers, detailed measurements of turbulent mean velocity distribution within 1.5 m above bed have been obtained. A global method of data analysis was used for estimating bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress (or friction velocities u * ). Field data have been examined by dividing the time series of velocity profiles into 24-hour periods and independently analyzing the velocity profile time series by flooding and ebbing periods. The global method of solution gives consistent properties of bottom roughness length z o and bottom shear stress values (or friction velocities u * ) in South Bay. Estimated mean values of z o and u * for flooding and ebbing cycles are different. The differences in mean z o and u * are shown to be caused by tidal current flood-ebb inequality, rather than the flooding or ebbing of tidal currents. The bed shear stress correlates well with a reference velocity; the slope of the correlation defines a drag coefficient. Forty-three days of field data in South Bay show two regimes of z o (and drag coefficient) as a function of a reference velocity. When the mean velocity is >25–30 cm s −1 , the ln z o (and thus the drag coefficient) is inversely proportional to the reference velocity. The cause for the reduction of roughness length is hypothesized as sediment erosion due to intensifying tidal currents thereby reducing bed roughness. When the mean velocity is <25–30 cm s −1 , the correlation between z o and the reference velocity is less clear. A plausible explanation of scattered values of z o under this condition may be sediment deposition. Measured sediment data were inadequate to support this hypothesis, but the proposed hypothesis warrants further field investigation.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS1999

Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events

We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model, using boundary conditions based on the concept of a “canonical” Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by lowering of the LIS, then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive, whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign, suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets, and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1999

Early evolution of a stratospheric volcanic eruption cloud as observed with TOMS and AVHRR

This paper is a detailed study of remote sensing data from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite detectors, of the 1982 eruption of El Chichón, Mexico. The volcanic cloud/atmosphere interactions in the first four days of this eruption were investigated by combining ultraviolet retrievals to estimate the mass of sulfur dioxide in the volcanic cloud [ Krueger et al. , 1995] with thermal infrared retrievals of the size, optical depth, and mass of fine-grained (1–10 μm radius) volcanic ash [ Wen and Rose , 1994]. Our study provides the first direct evidence of gravitational separation of ash from a stratospheric, gas-rich, plinian eruption column and documents the marked differences in residence times of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide in volcanic clouds. The eruption column reached as high as 32 km [ Carey and Sigurdsson , 1986] and was injected into an atmosphere with a strong wind shear, which allowed for an observation of the separation of sulfur dioxide and volcanic ash. The upper, more sulfur dioxide-rich part of the cloud was transported to the west in the stratosphere, while the fine-grained ash traveled to the south in the troposphere. The mass of sulfur dioxide released was estimated at 7.1 × 10 9 kg with the mass decreasing by approximately 4% 1 day after the peak. The mass of fine-grained volcanic ash detected was estimated at 6.5 × 10 9 kg, amounting to about 0.7% of the estimated mass of the ash which fell out in the mapped ash blanket close to the volcano. Over the following days, 98% of this remaining fine ash was removed from the volcanic cloud, and the effective radius of ash in the volcanic cloud decreased from about 8 μm to about 4 μm.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1999

Late 20th century increase in South Pole snow accumulation

A compilation of the 37-year history of net accumulation at the South Pole [ Mosley-Thompson et al ., 1995] suggests an increase in net annual accumulation since 1965. This record is sporadic and its quality is compromised by spatially restricted observations and nonsystematic measurement procedures. Results from a new, spatially extensive network of 236 accumulation poles document that the current 5-year (1992–1997) average annual net accumulation at the South Pole is 84.5 ± 8.9 mm water equivalent (w.e.). This accumulation rate reflects a 30% increase since the 1960s when the best, although not optimal, records indicate that it was 65 mm w.e. Identification of two prominent beta radioactivity horizons (1954/1955 and 1964/1965) in six firn cores confirms an increase in accumulation since 1965. Viewed from a longer perspective of accumulation provided by ice cores and a snow mine study, the net accumulation of the 30-year period, 1965–1994, is the highest 30-year average of this millennium. Limited data suggest this recent accumulation increase extends beyond the South Pole region and may be characteristic of the high East Antarctic Plateau. Enhanced accumulation over the polar ice sheets has been identified as a potential early indicator of warmer sea surface temperatures and may offset a portion of the current rise in global sea level.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1999

Dark material in the polar layered deposits and dunes on Mars

Viking infrared thermal mapping and bistatic radar data suggest that the bulk density of the north polar erg material is much lower than that of the average Martian surface or of dark dunes at lower latitudes. We have derived a thermal inertia of 245–280 J m −2 s −1/2 K −1 (5.9–6.7×10 −3 cal cm −2 s −1/2 K −1 ) for the Proctor dune field and 25–150 J m −2 s −1/2 K −1 (0.6–3.6×10 −3 cal cm −2 s −1/2 K −1 ) for the north polar erg. The uniqueness of the thermophysical properties of the north polar erg material may be due to a unique polar process that has created them. The visible and near‐infrared spectral reflectance of the erg suggests that the dark material may be composed of basalt or ferrous clays. These data are consistent with the dark material being composed of basaltic ash or filamentary sublimate residue (FSR) particles derived from erosion of the layered deposits. Dark dust may be preferentially concentrated at the surface of the layered deposits by the formation of FSR particles upon sublimation of water ice. Further weathering and erosion of these areas of exposed layered deposits may form the dark, saltating material that is found in both polar regions. Dark FSR particles may saltate for great distances before eventually breaking down into dust grains, re‐mixing with the global dust reservoir, and being recycled into the polar layered deposits via atmospheric suspension.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

Soil-like deposits observed by Sojourner, the Pathfinder rover

Most of the soil-like materials at the Pathfinder landing site behave like moderately dense soils on Earth with friction angles near 34°-39° and are called cloddy deposits. Cloddy deposits appear to be poorly sorted with dust-sized to granule-sized mineral or rock grains; they may contain pebbles, small rock fragments, and clods. Thin deposits of porous, compressible drifts with friction angles near 26°-28° are also present. Drifts are fine grained. Cohesions of both types of deposits are small. There may be indurated soil-like deposits and/or coated or crusted rocks. Cloddy deposits may be fluvial sediments of the Ares-Tiu floods, but other origins, such as ejecta from nearby impact craters, should be considered. Drifts are probably dusts that settled from the Martian atmosphere. Remote-sensing signatures of the deposits inferred from rover observations are consistent with those observed from orbit and Earth.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) image calibration

The Imager for Mars Pathfinder returned over 16,000 high-quality images from the surface of Mars. The camera was well-calibrated in the laboratory, with <5% radiometric uncertainty. The photometric properties of two radiometric targets were also measured with 3% uncertainty. Several data sets acquired during the cruise and on Mars confirm that the system operated nominally throughout the course of the mission. Image calibration algorithms were developed for landed operations to correct instrumental sources of noise and to calibrate images relative to observations of the radiometric targets. The uncertainties associated with these algorithms as well as current improvements to image calibration are discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

Digital photogrammetric analysis of the IMP camera images: Mapping the Mars Pathfinder landing site in three dimensions

This paper describes our photogrammetric analysis of the Imager for Mars Pathfinder data, part of a broader program of mapping the Mars Pathfinder landing site in support of geoscience investigations. This analysis, carried out primarily with a commercial digital photogrammetric system, supported by our in‐house Integrated Software for Imagers and Spectrometers (ISIS), consists of three steps: (1) geometric control: simultaneous solution for refined estimates of camera positions and pointing plus three‐dimensional (3‐D) coordinates of ∼10 3 features sitewide, based on the measured image coordinates of those features; (2) topographic modeling: identification of ∼3×10 5 closely spaced points in the images and calculation (based on camera parameters from step 1) of their 3‐D coordinates, yielding digital terrain models (DTMs); and (3) geometric manipulation of the data: combination of the DTMs from different stereo pairs into a sitewide model, and reprojection of image data to remove parallax between the different spectral filters in the two cameras and to provide an undistorted planimetric view of the site. These processes are described in detail and example products are shown. Plans for combining the photogrammetrically derived topographic data with spectrophotometry are also described. These include photometric modeling using surface orientations from the DTM to study surface microtextures and improve the accuracy of spectral measurements, and photoclinometry to refine the DTM to single‐pixel resolution where photometric properties are sufficiently uniform. Finally, the inclusion of rover images in a joint photogrammetric analysis with IMP images is described. This challenging task will provide coverage of areas hidden to the IMP, but accurate ranging of distant features can be achieved only if the lander is also visible in the rover image used.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

Digital mapping of the Mars Pathfinder landing site: Design, acquisition, and derivation of cartographic products for science applications

The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) acquired more than 16,000 images and provided panoramic views of the surface of Mars at the Mars Pathfinder landing site in Ares Vallis. This paper describes the stereoscopic, multispectral IMP imaging sequences and focuses on their use for digital mapping of the landing site and for deriving cartographic products to support science applications of these data. Two‐dimensional cartographic processing of IMP data, as performed via techniques and specialized software developed for ISIS (the U.S. Geological Survey image processing software package), is emphasized. Cartographic processing of IMP data includes ingestion, radiometric correction, establishment of geometric control, coregistration of multiple bands, reprojection, and mosaicking. Photogrammetric processing, an integral part of this cartographic work which utilizes the three‐dimensional character of the IMP data, supplements standard processing with geometric control and topographic information [ Kirk et al. , this issue]. Both cartographic and photogrammetric processing are required for producing seamless image mosaics and for coregistering the multispectral IMP data. Final, controlled IMP cartographic products include spectral cubes, panoramic (360° azimuthal coverage) and planimetric (top view) maps, and topographic data, to be archived on four CD‐ROM volumes. Uncontrolled and semicontrolled versions of these products were used to support geologic characterization of the landing site during the nominal and extended missions. Controlled products have allowed determination of the topography of the landing site and environs out to ∼60 m, and these data have been used to unravel the history of large‐ and small‐scale geologic processes which shaped the observed landing site. We conclude by summarizing several lessons learned from cartographic processing of IMP data.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

General geology and geomorphology of the Mars Pathfinder landing site

The Mars Pathfinder (MPF) spacecraft landed on relatively young (late Hesperian-early Amazonian; 3.1-0.7 Ga) plains in Chryse Planitia near the mouth of Ares Vallis. Images returned from the spacecraft reveal a complex landscape of ridges and troughs, large hills and crater rims, rocks and boulders of various sizes and shapes, and surficial deposits, indicating a complex, multistage geologic history of the landing site. After the deposition of one or more bedrock units, depositional and erosional fluvial processes shaped much of the present landscape. Multiple erosional events are inferred on the basis of observations of numerous channels, different orientations of many streamlined tails from their associated knobs and hills, and superposition of lineations and streamlines. Medium- and small-scale features, interpreted to be related to late-stage drainage of floodwaters, are recognized in several areas at the landing site. Streamlined knobs and hills seen in Viking orbiter images support this inference, as they seem to be complex forms, partly erosional and partly depositional, and may also indicate a series of scouring and depositional events that, in some cases, further eroded or partially buried these landforms. Although features such as these are cited as evidence for catastrophic flooding at Ares Vallis, some of these features may also be ascribed to alternative primary or secondary depositional processes, such as glacial or mass-wasting processes. Close inspection of the landing site reveals rocks that are interpreted to be volcanic in origin and others that may be conglomeratic. If such sedimentary rocks are confirmed, fluvial processes have had a greater significance on Mars than previously thought. For the last several hundred million to few billion years, eolian processes have been dominant. Dunes and dune-like features, ventifacts, and deflation and exhumation features around several rocks probably are the most recent landforms. The relatively pristine nature of the overall landscape at the MPF site suggests weathering and erosion processes on Mars are exceptionally slow.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS1999

Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were undamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50–100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was undamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Paleomagnetism of an east-west transect across the Cascade arc in southern Washington: Implications for regional tectonism

Paleomagnetic data from a transect across the Cascade arc in southern Washington were collected to test models of vertical axis rotations for this part of the Pacific Northwest and to provide information on the tectonic history of the St. Helens seismic zone. The 75 site-mean directions are divided into three groups based on isotopic, fission track, and stratigraphic ages. Group 1 consists of samples from rocks deposited between 39 and 30 Ma and shows a mean clockwise vertical axis rotation of 34° ± 13°, group 2 consists of samples from rocks deposited between 30 and 24 Ma and shows a mean clockwise rotation of 17° ± 11°, and group 3 consists of samples from rocks between 24 and 16 Ma and shows a mean clockwise rotation of 20° ± 12°. Although these three values of rotation are statistically indistinguishable at the 95% confidence level, we interpret them in combination with other data to indicate differential rotation across the St. Helens seismic zone (SHZ). The available paleomagnetic data for Eocene-Oligocene rocks west of the seismic zone show clockwise vertical axis rotations of 30° ± 8° and 35° ± 9° consistent with the value for group 1. The rotational values for groups 2 and 3 and the intrusive suite of Kidd Creek (13 Ma), despite their different ages, have similar values east of the SHZ. Comparing these groups of data east and west of the seismic zone indicates a differential rotation of 10° ± 3° across it. In addition, the rates of rotation in southern Washington are similar to those for rocks in the western Cascades of Oregon and indicate that rotational deformation of Miocene age extends northward into southern Washington and eastward into the axis of the arc.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Stress transfer by the 1988-1989 M=5.3 and 5.4 Lake Elsman foreshocks to the Loma Prieta fault: Unclamping at the site of peak mainshock slip

We study the stress transferred by the June 27, 1988, M = 5.3 and August 8, 1989, M = 5.4 Lake Elsman earthquakes, the largest events to strike within 15 km of the future Loma Prieta rupture zone during 74 years before the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. We find that the first Lake Elsman event brought the rupture plane of the second event 0.3–1.6 bars (0.03–0.16 MPa) closer to Coulomb failure but that the Lake Elsman events did not bring the future Loma Prieta hypocentral zone closer to failure. Instead, the Lake Elsman earthquakes are calculated to have reduced the normal stress on (or “undamped”) the Loma Prieta rupture surface by 0.5–1.0 bar (0.05–0.10 MPa) at the site where the greatest slip subsequently occurred in the Loma Prieta earthquake. This association between the sites of peak unclamping and slip suggests that the Lake Elsman events did indeed influence the Loma Prieta rupture process. Unclamping the fault would have locally lowered the resistance to sliding. Such an effect could have been enhanced if the lowered normal stress permitted fluid infusion into the undamped part of the fault. Although less well recorded, the M L = 5.0 1964 and M L = 5.3 1967 Corralitos events struck within 10 km of the southwest end of the future Loma Prieta rupture. No similar relationship between the normal stress change and subsequent Loma Prieta slip is observed, although the high-slip patch southwest of the Loma Prieta epicenter corresponds roughly to the site of calculated Coulomb stress increase for a low coefficient of friction. The Lake Elsman-Loma Prieta result is similar to that for the 1987 M = 6.2 Elmore Ranch and M = 6.7 Superstition Hills earthquakes, suggesting that foreshocks might influence the distribution of mainshock slip rather than the site of mainshock nucleation.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗