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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Using structured decision making to evaluate potential management responses to detection of dreissenid mussel (Dreissena spp.) environmental DNA

Environmental (e)DNA tools are sensitive and cost-effective for early detection of invasive species. However, the uncertainty associated with the interpretation of positive eDNA detections makes it challenging to determine appropriate natural resource management responses. Multiple sources of error can give rise to positive detections of eDNA in a sample when individuals of that species are not present at the site or a widespread infestation is not imminent. Acting on an erroneous eDNA inference could result in needless costs or reductions in desirable resources. Alternatively, failure to rapidly act on eDNA results that truly indicate invader presence could compound negative impacts and lead to high, long-term costs to manage infestations. We used a structured decision making (SDM) process, which incorporates tradeoffs and uncertainties, to evaluate appropriate response actions following hypothetical eDNA detections of invasive dreissenid mussel ( Dreissena spp.) eDNA in Jordanelle Reservoir, Utah (USA). We worked with decision-makers and stakeholders to identify objectives and discrete management action alternatives to assess consequences and tradeoffs. Alternatives ranged from no action to intensive and expensive control efforts. The best performing alternative was delayed containment described by immediate attempts to confirm the eDNA detections using non-molecular sampling techniques followed by mandatory watercraft exit inspections to prevent dreissenid mussel spread to regional water bodies. Non-molecular sampling increased public support for management by demonstrating a commitment to monitor the invasion state before action, whereas containment decreased likelihood of regional spread to other waters. Delayed containment had the lowest downside risk, and the highest upside gains relative to other alternative actions. Sensitivity analyses showed our results to be robust to parameter and outcome uncertainty.

Management of Biological Invasions↗
USGS2022

Both real-time and long-term environmental data perform well in predicting shorebird distributions in managed habitat

Highly mobile species, such as migratory birds, respond to seasonal and inter-annual variability in resource availability by moving to better habitats. Despite the recognized importance of resource thresholds, species distribution models typically rely on long-term average habitat conditions, mostly because large-extent, temporally-resolved, environmental data are difficult to obtain. Recent advances in remote sensing make it possible to incorporate more frequent measurements of changing landscapes; however, there is often a cost in terms of model building and processing and the added value of such efforts is unknown. Our study tests whether incorporating real-time environmental data increases the predictive ability of distribution models, relative to using long-term average data. We developed and compared distribution models for shorebirds in California's Central Valley based on high temporal resolution (every 16-days), and 17-year long-term average, surface water data. Using abundance-weighted boosted regression trees, we modeled monthly shorebird occurrence as a function of surface water availability, crop type, wetland type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. While modeling with both real-time and long-term average data provided good fit to withheld validation data (0.79 < AUC < 0.89 across taxa), there were small differences in model performance. The best models incorporated long-term average conditions and spatial pattern information for real-time flooding (e.g. perimeter-area ratio of real-time water bodies). There was not a substantial difference in the performance of real-time and long-term average data models within time periods when real-time surface water differed substantially from the long-term average (specifically during drought years 2013-2016) and in intermittently flooded months or locations. Spatial predictions resulting from the models differed most in the southern region of the study area where there is lower water availability, fewer birds, and lower sampling density. Prediction uncertainty in the southern region of the study area highlights the need for increased sampling in this area. Because both sets of data performed similarly, the choice of which data to use may depend on the management context. Real-time data may ultimately be best for guiding dynamic, adaptive conservation actions whereas models based on long-term averages may be more helpful for guiding permanent wetland protection and restoration.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2001

Identifying determinants of nations' wetland management programs using structural equation modeling: An exploratory analysis

Integrated management and policy models suggest that solutions to environmental issues may be linked to the socioeconomic and political Characteristics of a nation. In this study, we empirically explore these suggestions by applying them to the wetland management activities of nations. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate a model of national wetland management effort and one of national wetland protection. Using five predictor variables of social capital, economic capital, environmental and political characteristics, and land-use pressure, the multivariate models were able to explain 60% of the variation in nations' wetland protection efforts based on data from 90 nations, as defined by level of participation, in the international wetland convention. Social capital had the largest direct effect on wetland protection efforts, suggesting that increased social development may eventually lead to better wetland protection. In contrast, increasing economic development had a negative linear relationship with wetland protection efforts, suggesting the need for explicit wetland protection programs as nations continue to focus on economic development. Government, environmental characteristics, and land-use pressure also had a positive direct effect on wetland protection, and mediated the effect of social capital on wetland protection. Explicit wetland protection policies, combined with a focus on social development, would lead to better wetland protection at the national level.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2006

USGS environmental characterization of flood sediments left in the New Orleans area after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005 — Progress Report

Introduction: The flooding in the greater New Orleans area that resulted from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in September, 2005, left behind accumulations of sediments up to many centimeters thick on streets, lawns, parking lots, and other flat surfaces. These flood sediment deposits have been the focus of extensive study by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) due to concerns that the sediments may contain elevated levels of heavy metals, organic contaminants, and microbes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is characterizing a limited number of flood sediment samples that were collected on September 15-16 and October 6-7, 2005, from the greater New Orleans area by personnel from the USGS Louisiana Water Science Center in Baton Rouge. Small samples (< 3 pints each) of wet to dry flood sediment were collected from 11 localities around downtown New Orleans on September 15, 2005, and two large samples (40 pints each) of wet flood sediment were collected from the Chalmette area on September 16. Twelve additional samples (8-10 pints each) were collected from New Orleans, Slidell, Rigolets, and Violet on October 6 and 7. The USGS characterization studies of these flood sediments are designed to produce data and interpretations regarding how the sediments and any contained contaminants may respond to environmental processes. This information will be of use to cleanup managers and DoI/USGS scientists assessing environmental impacts of the hurricanes and subsequent cleanup activities.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Seed bank community and soil texture relationships in a cold desert

Sustainable dryland management depends on understanding environmental factors driving composition of current and future ecological communities. While there has been extensive research on aboveground plant communities, less is known about belowground soil seed bank communities, which can reflect both past and potential future communities. In the Colorado Plateau of the western United States, we explored aboveground and belowground plant communities and how they varied across sites with similar climate but contrasting soil textures. We found that aboveground vegetation and belowground seed bank community composition each varied significantly among sites. However, we also observed marked aboveground-belowground compositional dissimilarity across sites, suggesting that the two spatially-associated communities may respond differently to the same environmental gradient. Lastly, we found that cheatgrass seed prevalence (Bromus tectorum) – one of the region’s major exotic invasive plants – varied strongly by soil texture, a finding with potential implications for invasive species management. From our research findings, we highlight two general patterns for dryland managers. Firstly, we show aboveground and belowground plant communities will not always respond to the same environmental changes in a coordinated manner. Secondly, the data underscore a large potential role for soil texture in mediating the plant community responses to other environmental factors.

Utah↗
USGS2026

Quantifying avian resilience to habitat change to support conservation decision-making

Habitat loss and degradation are two of the main drivers of contemporary avian population declines. Wildlife managers are increasingly advocating for tools that provide decision support to set priorities for restoration or conservation efficiently. We demonstrate how to derive two species-specific management and resilience metrics: the greatest management impact point (GMIP) and the ecological resilience threshold (RT). The GMIP indicates the amount of environmental change in a landscape where habitat improvements are expected to have the greatest impact on species’ occurrence. The RT represents the amount of environmental change in a landscape that a species can tolerate before the steepest change in occupancy is expected to begin. We estimate species-specific metrics using the amount of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation as an index of environmental change, and demonstrate how multispecies patterns may suggest potential management strategies. We estimated occupancy models using 5 years of multispecies avian detection data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program in the State of Utah, USA (hereafter, Utah). Based on the estimated relationship between species’ occupancy and amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation, we derive RT and GMIP scores for 61 species breeding in Utah. We found wide interspecific variation in resilience to amounts of exotic vegetation, with species generally clustering at extreme values. Our results demonstrate that birds in Utah appear more resilient to amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation at coarser spatial resolution, showing greater variance and lower average RTs at finer spatial resolution. Species that are not fully resilient to the range of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation observed in this study are expected to respond most strongly, on average, to management actions in landscapes with high levels of exotic vegetation; however, early detection and rapid response is likely the most effective strategy. Quantified across many species, these metrics can be used to identify and prioritize landscapes where current environmental conditions could be maintained to avoid the greatest species’ declines, or which maximize expected biodiversity returns on investment in environmental restoration. Managers can consider either focal species’ resilience for tailored conservation planning or summarize species resilience to create efficient management plans that maximize outcomes for multiple species.

Utah↗
USGS2012

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion-PESTCommander, a graphical user interface for file and run management across networks

Models of environmental systems have become increasingly complex, incorporating increasingly large numbers of parameters in an effort to represent physical processes on a scale approaching that at which they occur in nature. Consequently, the inverse problem of parameter estimation (specifically, model calibration) and subsequent uncertainty analysis have become increasingly computation-intensive endeavors. Fortunately, advances in computing have made computational power equivalent to that of dozens to hundreds of desktop computers accessible through a variety of alternate means: modelers have various possibilities, ranging from traditional Local Area Networks (LANs) to cloud computing. Commonly used parameter estimation software is well suited to take advantage of the availability of such increased computing power. Unfortunately, logistical issues become increasingly important as an increasing number and variety of computers are brought to bear on the inverse problem. To facilitate efficient access to disparate computer resources, the PESTCommander program documented herein has been developed to provide a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates the management of model files ("file management") and remote launching and termination of "slave" computers across a distributed network of computers ("run management"). In version 1.0 described here, PESTCommander can access and ascertain resources across traditional Windows LANs: however, the architecture of PESTCommander has been developed with the intent that future releases will be able to access computing resources (1) via trusted domains established in Wide Area Networks (WANs) in multiple remote locations and (2) via heterogeneous networks of Windows- and Unix-based operating systems. The design of PESTCommander also makes it suitable for extension to other computational resources, such as those that are available via cloud computing. Version 1.0 of PESTCommander was developed primarily to work with the parameter estimation software PEST; the discussion presented in this report focuses on the use of the PESTCommander together with Parallel PEST. However, PESTCommander can be used with a wide variety of programs and models that require management, distribution, and cleanup of files before or after model execution. In addition to its use with the Parallel PEST program suite, discussion is also included in this report regarding the use of PESTCommander with the Global Run Manager GENIE, which was developed simultaneously with PESTCommander.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2011

Application of neural networks to prediction of fish diversity and salmonid production in the Lake Ontario basin

Diversity and fish productivity are important measures of the health and status of aquatic systems. Being able to predict the values of these indices as a function of environmental variables would be valuable to management. Diversity and productivity have been related to environmental conditions by multiple linear regression and discriminant analysis, but such methods have several shortcomings. In an effort to predict fish species diversity and estimate salmonid production for streams in the eastern basin of Lake Ontario, I constructed neural networks and trained them on a data set containing abiotic information and either fish diversity or juvenile salmonid abundance. Twenty percent of the original data were retained as a test data set and used in the training. The ability to extend these neural networks to conditions throughout the streams was tested with data not involved in the network training. The resulting neural networks were able to predict the number of salmonids with more than 84% accuracy and diversity with more than 73% accuracy, which was far superior to the performance of multiple regression. The networks also identified the environmental variables with the greatest predictive power, namely, those describing water movement, stream size, and water chemistry. Thirteen input variables were used to predict diversity and 17 to predict salmonid abundance.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2011

Proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference, Medford, Oregon, February 1-5, 2010

This report presents the proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference (February 2010). A primary purpose of the meeting was to inform and update Klamath Basin stakeholders about areas of scientific progress and accomplishment during the last 5 years. Secondary conference objectives focused on the identification of outstanding information needs and science priorities as they relate to whole watershed management, restoration ecology, and possible reintroduction of Pacific salmon associated with the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA). Information presented in plenary, technical, breakout, and poster sessions has been assembled into chapters that reflect the organization, major themes, and content of the conference. Chapter 1 reviews the major environmental issues and resource management and other stakeholder needs of the basin. Importantly, this assessment of information needs included the possibility of large-scale restoration projects in the future and lessons learned from a case study in South Florida. Other chapters (2-6) summarize information about key components of the Klamath Basin, support conceptual modeling of the aquatic ecosystem (Chapter 7), and synthesize our impressions of the most pressing science priorities for management and restoration. A wealth of information was presented at the conference and this has been captured in chapters addressing environmental setting and human development of the basin, hydrology, watershed processes, fishery resources, and potential effects from climate change. The final chapter (8) culminates in a discussion of many specific research priorities that relate to and bookend the broader management needs and restoration goals identified in Chapter 1. In many instances, the conferees emphasized long-term and process-oriented approaches to watershed science in the basin as planning moves forward.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2013

Preliminary stratigraphic and hydrogeologic cross sections and seismic profile of the Floridan aquifer system of Broward County, Florida

To help water-resource managers evaluate the Floridan aquifer system (FAS) as an alternative water supply, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study, in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Protection and Growth Management Department, to refine the hydrogeologic framework of the FAS in the eastern part of Broward County. This report presents three preliminary cross sections illustrating stratigraphy and hydrogeology in eastern Broward County as well as an interpreted seismic profile along one of the cross sections. Marker horizons were identified using borehole geophysical data and were initially used to perform well-to-well correlation. Core sample data were integrated with the borehole geophysical data to support stratigraphic and hydrogeologic interpretations of marker horizons. Stratigraphic and hydrogeologic units were correlated across the county using borehole geophysical data from multiple wells. Seismic-reflection data were collected along the Hillsboro Canal. Borehole geophysical data were used to identify and correlate hydrogeologic units in the seismic-reflection profile. Faults and collapse structures that intersect hydrogeologic units were also identified in the seismic profile. The information provided in the cross sections and the seismic profile is preliminary and subject to revision.

Florida↗
USGS1987

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, Coastal Plain Resource Assessment: Report and recommendation to the Congress of the United States and final legislative environmental impact statement

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in the northeastern corner of Alaska, was first established as the Arctic National Wildlife Range by Public Land Order 2214 in 1960, for the purpose of preserving unique wildlife, wilderness, and recreational values. The original 8.9-millionacre Range was withdrawn from all forms of appropriation under the public land laws, including mining laws but not including mineral leasing laws. This order culminated extensive efforts begun more than a decade earlier to preserve this unique part of Alaska. The following report analyzes the potential environmental consequences of five management alternatives for the coastal plain, ranging from opening for lease of the entire area for oil and gas development, to wilderness designation. A legislative environmental impact statement has been integrated into the report.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Management of surface water and groundwater withdrawals to maintain environmental stream flows in Michigan

In 2008, the State of Michigan enacted legislation requiring that new or increased high-capacity withdrawals (greater than 100,000 gallons per day) from either surface water or groundwater be reviewed to prevent Adverse Resource Impacts (ARI). Science- based guidance was sought in defining how groundwater or surface-water withdrawals affect streamflow and in quantifying the relation between reduced streamflow and changes in stream ecology. The implementation of the legislation led to a risk-based system based on a gradient of risk, ecological response curves, and estimation of groundwater-surface water interaction. All Michigan streams are included in the legislation, and, accordingly, all Michigan streams were classified into management types defined by size of watershed, stream-water temperature, and predicted fish assemblages. Different streamflow removal percentages define risk-based thresholds allowed for each type. These removal percentages were informed by ecological response curves of characteristic fish populations and finalized through a legislative workgroup process. The assessment process includes an on-line screening tool that may be used to evaluate new or increased withdrawals against the risk-based zones and allows withdrawals that are not likely to cause an ARI to proceed to water-use registration. The system is designed to consider cumulative impacts of high-capacity withdrawals and to promote user involvement in water resource management by the establishment of water-user committees as cumulative withdrawals indicate greater potential for ARI in the watershed.

Michigan↗
USGS2019

Environmental DNA as a tool to help inform zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, management in inland lakes

Zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ) are an aquatic invasive species that plague much of North America and are difficult to impossible to eradicate once they become established. Therefore, prevention and monitoring are key elements in the control of these organisms. Traditional microscopy is commonly used in monitoring but requires the presence of larval veligers. This limits the times when resource managers can monitor for the presence in northern lakes. A new monitoring tool, environmental DNA (eDNA), may allow for a more efficient and cost-effective monitoring program for zebra mussels. We developed and tested an environmental DNA assay in the fall and spring for zebra mussels in two Minnesota lakes, one heavily infested and another newly infested. We found that DNA copy numbers tended to be higher near the lake bottom and DNA was more concentrated in softer substrates. We also found that the amount of zebra mussel DNA sampling in winter resulted in similar results to when sampled in fall. This suggests that one could collect and analyze eDNA for zebra mussels during winter months to help inform future efforts in monitoring and control.

Minnesota↗
USGS2017

Colorado River fish monitoring in Grand Canyon, Arizona; 2002–14 humpback chub aggregations

The humpback chub ( Gila cypha ) is an endangered cyprinid species endemic to the Colorado River. The largest remaining population of the species spawns and rears in the Little Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Construction and operation of Glen Canyon Dam has altered the main-stem Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Cold, clear water releases from the dam result in a river that is generally unsuitable for successful humpback chub reproduction. During the early 1990s, nine locations within the main-stem Colorado River were identified as humpback chub aggregations—areas with a consistent and disjunct group of fish with no significant exchange of individuals with other aggregations. We monitored main-stem Colorado River aggregations of humpback chub in Grand Canyon during 2010 to 2014 and compared our results to previous investigations. Relative abundance, as described by catch per unit effort (fish per hour) of adult humpback chub at most main-stem aggregations, generally increased from the 1990s to 2014. In addition, distribution of humpback chub in the main-stem Colorado River has increased since the 1990s. Movement of humpback chub between the Little Colorado River and other aggregations likely adds fish to those aggregations. There is clear evidence of reproduction near the 30-Mile aggregation, and reproduction at Middle Granite Gorge and downstream seems likely based on catches of gravid fish and captures of very young fish, especially during relatively warm water releases from Glen Canyon Dam, 2004 to 2011. Humpback chub relative abundance at Shinumo and Havasu Creek inflows increased following translocations of young humpback chub starting in 2009. In light of this information, we modify the original nine aggregations, combining two previously separate aggregations and dropping two locations to form six distinct aggregations of humpback chub. Trends in humpback chub abundance at main-stem aggregations, relative to management actions (for example, translocations) or changing environmental conditions (for example, river warming), informs management of the species across a riverscape scale within the Colorado River.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Defining oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana for restoration and aquaculture

Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) are a critical ecological and commercial resource in the northern Gulf of Mexico facing changing environmental conditions from river management and climate change. In Louisiana, USA, development of restored reefs, and off-bottom aquaculture would benefit from the identification of locations supportive of sustainable oyster populations ( i.e., metapopulations) and high consistent production. This study defines four oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana based on environmental conditions known to affect oyster survival, growth, and reproduction. Daily data from 2015 to 2019 were interpolated to generate salinity and temperature profiles across Louisiana's estuaries, which were then used to classify zones based on monthly and annual salinity mean and variance. Zones were classified as supportive of (1) broodstock sanctuary reefs (i.e., support reproductive populations), (2) productive reefs during dry (salty) years, (3) productive reefs during wet (fresh) years, and (4) off-bottom aquaculture development. Of the 38,000 km 2 investigated, over 11,000 km 2 of potential oyster zone area was identified across the Louisiana coast. The Broodstock Sanctuary Zone was the smallest (∼540 km 2 ), as salinity variance limited this zone in many areas, as it is driven largely by riverine inputs across many estuaries. Located up-estuary (Dry Restoration Zone) and down-estuary (Wet Restoration Zone) of the Broodstock Sanctuary Zone, Dry and Wet Restoration Zone areas covered ∼2400 km 2 and ∼3900 km 2 , respectively. Mapped reefs in Louisiana currently exist largely within the Dry Restoration zones, suggesting a potential strategy to focus reef development in Wet Restoration zones to ensure reef network sustainability through years with high precipitation and river inflow. The off-bottom Aquaculture Zone was the largest (∼6400 km 2 ) zone identified, with much of this area located more down-estuary and off-shore. Accounting for variable water quality conditions enables the development of a network of reefs resilient to environmental variability, and more stable areas for consistent off-bottom aquaculture production. Spatial planning and identification of oyster resource zones reduces focus on individual reef success and supports management of oyster metapopulation outcomes, while identifying zones supportive of off-bottom aquaculture.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

Nonlinearities in transmission dynamics and efficient management of vector-borne pathogens

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is an approach to minimizing economic and environmental harm caused by pests, and Integrated Vector Management (IVM) uses similar methods to minimize pathogen transmission by vectors. The risk of acquiring a vector-borne infection is often quantified using the density of infected vectors. The relationship between vector numbers and risk of human infection is more or less linear when both vector numbers and pathogen prevalence in vectors are low, but the relationship is nonlinear when vector density and/or infection prevalence are high. Therefore, the density of infected vectors often does not accurately predict risk of human exposure to pathogens, and traditional estimates of % Control often overestimate the level of protection from infection resulting from management programs. We suggest a modified estimator, % Protection, which more accurately quantifies protection against human infection resulting from a management intervention. Cost-effectiveness of a management program is critical to protection of both public health and the environment, because the more efficiently available resources and funding are used, the fewer people get sick, and well-targeted efficient management programs minimize the need for poorly-targeted, expensive environmental interventions (e.g., broadscale pesticide applications) that tend to damage nontarget organisms and natural systems. Design of an efficient, cost-effective IVM program requires knowledge of the cost-effectiveness functions (the effectiveness of control methods at lowering vector bites and/or infection prevalence with different levels of application) of the various control methods to be applied. Alternative programs can be designed that optimize % Protection by integrating different control methods at different levels of investment, and environmental effects of these alternatives can be compared, allowing environmental considerations to be included explicitly in the decision process. IPM, IVM, and Adaptive Management share the characteristic that management decisions must be made with incomplete knowledge of the functioning of natural systems or the efficacies of interventions. IVM surveillance programs that assess the effects of individual control methods and of combinations of control methods on the numbers of vector bites and on infection prevalence in vectors, can increase knowledge of pathogen transmission dynamics and provide information to improve program effectiveness in subsequent applications.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2012

Examining the contradiction in 'sustainable urban growth': an example of groundwater sustainability

The environmental planning literature proposes a set of 'best management practices' for urban development that assumes improvement in environmental quality as a result of specific urban patterns. These best management practices, however, often do not recognise finite biophysical limits and social impacts that urban patterns alone cannot overcome. To shed light on this debate, we explore the effects of different degrees of urban clustering on groundwater levels using a coupled land-use change and groundwater-flow model. Our simulations show that specific urban forms only slow down the impact on groundwater. As population increases, the pattern in which it is accommodated ceases to matter, and widespread depletion ensues. These results are predictable, yet current planning practice tends to take growth for granted and is reluctant to envision either no-growth scenarios or the prospect of depletion. We propose to use simulations such as those presented here to aid in policy discussions that allow decision makers to question the assumption of sustainable growth and suggest alternative forms of development.

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management↗
USGS2014

Uncertainty, robustness, and the value of information in managing a population of northern bobwhites

The abundance of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) has decreased throughout their range. Managers often respond by considering improvements in harvest and habitat management practices, but this can be challenging if substantial uncertainty exists concerning the cause(s) of the decline. We were interested in how application of decision science could be used to help managers on a large, public management area in southwestern Florida where the bobwhite is a featured species and where abundance has severely declined. We conducted a workshop with managers and scientists to elicit management objectives, alternative hypotheses concerning population limitation in bobwhites, potential management actions, and predicted management outcomes. Using standard and robust approaches to decision making, we determined that improved water management and perhaps some changes in hunting practices would be expected to produce the best management outcomes in the face of uncertainty about what is limiting bobwhite abundance. We used a criterion called the expected value of perfect information to determine that a robust management strategy may perform nearly as well as an optimal management strategy (i.e., a strategy that is expected to perform best, given the relative importance of different management objectives) with all uncertainty resolved. We used the expected value of partial information to determine that management performance could be increased most by eliminating uncertainty over excessive-harvest and human-disturbance hypotheses. Beyond learning about the factors limiting bobwhites, adoption of a dynamic management strategy, which recognizes temporal changes in resource and environmental conditions, might produce the greatest management benefit. Our research demonstrates that robust approaches to decision making, combined with estimates of the value of information, can offer considerable insight into preferred management approaches when great uncertainty exists about system dynamics and the effects of management.

Florida↗