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USGS2024

Identifying indicators of polar bear population status

Monitoring trends in large mammal populations is a fundamental component of wildlife management and conservation. However, direct estimates of population size and vital rates of large mammals can be logistically challenging and expensive. Indicators that reflect trends in abundance, therefore, can be valuable tools for supporting population monitoring. Polar bears have a relatively simple life history such that a few key variables may be effective indicators for tracking changes in body condition and recruitment that affect abundance. Direct estimates of polar bear abundance are difficult to obtain due to their large home ranges in remote Arctic habitats. Changes in abundance associated with environmental conditions appear to affect polar bears largely via effects on female body condition which influence reproduction and cub survival (i.e., recruitment). Loss of sea ice habitat is further limiting researcher access for population monitoring creating a need for alternative approaches. Here we used relationships established from eight years (2008–2017) of data collected on 439 polar bears in the Chukchi Sea, to transform previously published individual-based relationships with annually available sea ice, atmospheric circulation, and prey body condition variables to predict annual mean body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022. Although annual sample sizes were limited for verifying predicted body condition and recruitment via techniques such as cross-validation, in most cases predicted annual means were closely correlated with observed means for 2008–2017. Summer sea ice and prey body condition remained within or increased relative to levels observed during 2008–2017 and predicted polar bear body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022 were largely within or above observed annual means during 2008–2017. A lack of trend in environmental and ecological variables or polar bear body condition and recruitment metrics during 2008–2022 is suggestive that the Chukchi Sea polar bear population was likely stable during this time. Our results provide support for developing models that predict important population parameters of large mammals based on environmental and ecological indicators. Given that trend information is lacking for 10 of the 19 recognized polar bear populations and is outdated for others, the use of environmental and ecological indicators may be particularly useful for augmenting direct estimates of polar bear vital rates in between periods of data collection. Although demographic assessments for polar bears have primarily focused on correlations with sea ice availability, our study and others highlight that prey health is also an important indicator of polar bear population status.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2021

Until It's a regulation it's not my fight: Complexities of a voluntary nonlead hunting ammunition program

Wildlife and human health are at risk of lead exposure from spent hunting ammunition. Lead exposure persists for bald eagles due to bullet fragments in game animal gut piles and unretrieved carcasses, and is also a human health risk when wild game is procured using lead ammunition. Programs encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition have become a popular approach mitigating these effects. This study explored attitudes and experiences of United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) staff implementing an outreach program encouraging deer hunters to voluntary use nonlead ammunition on 54 National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the Upper Midwest, U.S. to understand factors affecting program implementation. We conducted 29 semi-structured interviews of USFWS staff along with 60 responses from an open-ended survey question. Twelve themes emerged from the data and were grouped into three broad categories: (1) challenges of dealing with complex issues, (2) importance of messengers and messages, and (3) resistance from staff. Challenges of dealing with complex issues included administrative restraint and uncertainty, scope and scale of program, human health not an agency responsibility, contextual political influences, and public-private collaborations. Importance of messengers and messages included the importance of experience, and salience of human health risk. Finally, resistance from staff included skepticism of the science and motives behind the program, competing priorities for refuge staff, differing perceptions of regulatory and voluntary approaches, cost and availability of nonlead ammunition, and disregard by some about lead ammunition and human health risks. Staff identified numerous challenges implementing the program, many of which were external factors beyond the control of the participants. Understanding the factors affecting program implementation may help guide future efforts encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition.

Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2017

Long-term spatial heterogeneity in mallard distribution in the Prairie pothole region

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of north-central United States and south-central Canada supports greater than half of all breeding mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) annually counted in North America and is the focus of widespread conservation and research efforts. Allocation of conservation resources for this socioeconomically important population would benefit from an understanding of the nature of spatiotemporal variation in distribution of breeding mallards throughout the 850,000 km 2 landscape. We used mallard counts from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey to test for spatial heterogeneity and identify high- and low-abundance regions of breeding mallards over a 50-year time series. We found strong annual spatial heterogeneity in all years: 90% of mallards counted annually were on an average of only 15% of surveyed segments. Using a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation, we found a relatively static distribution of low-count clusters in northern Montana, USA, and southern Alberta, Canada, and a dynamic distribution of high-count clusters throughout the study period. Distribution of high-count clusters shifted southeast from northwestern portions of the PPR in Alberta and western Saskatchewan, Canada, to North and South Dakota, USA, during the latter half of the study period. This spatial redistribution of core mallard breeding populations was likely driven by interactions between environmental variation that created favorable hydrological conditions for wetlands in the eastern PPR and dynamic land-use patterns related to upland cropping practices and government land-retirement programs. Our results highlight an opportunity for prioritizing relatively small regions within the PPR for allocation of wetland and grassland conservation for mallard populations. However, the extensive spatial heterogeneity in core distributions over our study period suggests such spatial prioritization will have to overcome challenges presented by dynamic land-use and climate patterns in the region, and thus merits additional monitoring and empirical research to anticipate future population distribution. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2022

A framework for prioritizing contaminants in retrospective ecological assessments: Application in the Milwaukee Estuary (Milwaukee, WI)

Watersheds are subjected to diverse anthropogenic inputs, exposing aquatic biota to a wide range of chemicals. Detection of multiple, different chemicals can challenge natural resource managers who often have to determine where to allocate potentially limited resources. Here, we describe a weight-of-evidence framework for retrospectively prioritizing aquatic contaminants. To demonstrate framework utility, we used data from 96-h caged fish studies to prioritize chemicals detected in the Milwaukee Estuary (WI, USA; 2017–2018). Across study years, 77/178 targeted chemicals were detected. Chemicals were assigned prioritization scores based on spatial and temporal detection frequency, environmental distribution, environmental fate, ecotoxicological potential, and effect prediction. Chemicals were sorted into priority bins based on the intersection of prioritization score and data availability. Data-limited chemicals represented those that did not have sufficient data to adequately evaluate ecotoxicological potential or environmental fate. Seven compounds (fluoranthene, benzo[ a ]pyrene, pyrene, atrazine, metolachlor, phenanthrene, and DEET) were identified as high or medium priority and data sufficient and flagged as candidates for further effects-based monitoring studies. Twenty-one compounds were identified as high or medium priority and data limited and flagged as candidates for further ecotoxicological research. Fifteen chemicals were flagged as the lowest priority in the watershed. One of these chemicals (2-methylnaphthalene) displayed no data limitations and was flagged as a definitively low-priority chemical. The remaining chemicals displayed some data limitations and were considered lower-priority compounds (contingent on further ecotoxicological and environmental fate assessments). The remaining 34 compounds were flagged as low or medium priority. Altogether, this prioritization provided a screening-level (non-definitive) assessment that could be used to focus further resource management and risk assessment activities in the Milwaukee Estuary. Furthermore, by providing detailed methodology and a practical example with real experimental data, we demonstrated that the proposed framework represents a transparent and adaptable approach for prioritizing contaminants in freshwater environments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–21. © 2022 SETAC

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Exposure to the Polychlorinated biphenyl mixture Aroclor 1254 elicits neurological and cardiac developmental effects in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio)

The goal of this study was to compare the bioaccumulation of the PCB mixture Aroclor 1254 in zebrafish to cardiac and neurologic outcomes. The establishment of effect concentrations (ECs) for cardiac and neurotoxic effects of PCBs in early life stage fish is challenging due to a lack of measured PCB concentrations in test media (e.g., fish tissue), the lack of standard exposure methods, and the propensity of PCBs to adsorb to test glassware and materials resulting in discrepancies in ECs from different studies with similar endpoints. Reporting tissue concentrations in test organisms will allow for standardization across different tests and thus may improve estimations of effect thresholds. Early life stage zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) are a common environmental toxicological model well represented within the literature, making them ideal for comparisons across multiple studies. Embryos were exposed at 6 h post fertilization (hpf) to aqueous Aroclor 1254 for 96 h with or without renewal in addition to a PCB 126 positive control for cardiotoxicity. PCB concentrations were measured in both exposure solutions and tissue samples. Measured concentrations of Aroclor 1254 in test solutions ranged from 8.7% to 870% of nominal concentrations. Heart rate, pericardial edema, and neurological endpoints (eye tremors) were measured in 102 hpf larvae. Pericardial edema was not present in Aroclor 1254-treated zebrafish but was observed in those exposed to PCB-126. Concentration-dependent bradycardia was observed in zebrafish exposed to Aroclor 1254 and PCB-126. Similarly, a concentration-dependent increase in eye tremor behavior was observed in embryos exposed to Aroclor 1254. Data produced by this study demonstrate novel toxicological effects of Aroclor 1254 and highlight the importance of measuring PCBs in both exposure and receptor media.

Chemosphere↗

USGS2026

Microplastics undergo fragmentation during pressurized membrane filtration

Low-micrometer microplastics (<10 μm) have been detected in drinking water, driving growing interest in using pressure-driven membrane filtration to remove these particles and ensure drinking water safety. However, little attention is paid to the fate of microplastics concentrated in the filtration byproduct. In this study, using well-defined polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) microspheres as model particles, we observed microplastic fragmentation during nanofiltration and the subsequent release of smaller fragments. After operating for 3 h at 20 bar, 67.9 ± 8.0% of the PS spheres in the concentrate, based on particles counted in selected fields of view, were transformed into fractured particles. The characteristic Raman band signals of microplastics were significantly weakened after fragmentation, leading to detection challenges. To address this, a data processing algorithm was developed to identify PS fragments as small as 1 μm. Preliminary statistical analysis reveals that within the tested pressure range, operation time has a stronger influence on fragmentation than pressure magnitude alone and that fragmentation is further governed by the intrinsic mechanical properties of the tested model polymers. This work provides direct evidence that pressure-driven membrane processes induce microplastic fragmentation and highlights the environmental risks associated with the discharge of fragmented microplastics into the concentrate.

Environmental Science & Technology Letters↗

USGS2006

Linking the concept of scale to studies of biological diversity: evolving approaches and tools.

Although the concepts of scale and biological diversity independently have received rapidly increasing attention in the scientific literature since the 1980s, the rate at which the two concepts have been investigated jointly has grown much more slowly. We find that scale considerations have been incorporated explicitly into six broad areas of investigation related to biological diversity: (1) heterogeneity within and among ecosystems, (2) disturbance ecology, (3) conservation and restoration, (4) invasion biology, (5) importance of temporal scale for understanding processes, and (6) species responses to environmental heterogeneity. In addition to placing the papers of this Special Feature within the context of brief summaries of the expanding literature on these six topics, we provide an overview of tools useful for integrating scale considerations into studies of biological diversity. Such tools include hierarchical and structural-equation modelling, kriging, variable-width buffers, k -fold cross-validation, and cascading graph diagrams, among others. Finally, we address some of the major challenges and research frontiers that remain, and conclude with a look to the future.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2012

Foreword: Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses of organisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, the congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for examples, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife Internationals and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis of proportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, of a species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans. Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions. PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approached to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic and boreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Estimating the effects of wetland conservation practices in croplands: Approaches for modeling in CEAP–Cropland Assessment

Quantifying the current and potential benefits of conservation practices can be a valuable tool for encouraging greater practice adoption on agricultural lands. A goal of the CEAP-Cropland Assessment is to estimate the environmental effects of conservation practices that reduce losses (exports) of soil, nutrients, and pesticides from farmlands to streams and rivers. The assessment approach combines empirical data on reported cropland practices with simulation modeling that compares field-level exports for scenarios “with practices” and “without practices.” Conserved, restored, and created wetlands collectively represent conservation practices that can influence sediment and nutrient exports from croplands. However, modeling the role of wetlands within croplands presents some challenges, including the potential for negative impacts of sediment and nutrient inputs on wetland functions. This Science Note outlines some preliminary solutions for incorporating wetlands and wetland practices into the CEAP-Cropland modeling framework. First, modeling the effects of wetland practices requires identifying wetland hydrogeomorphic type and accounting for the condition of both the wetland and an adjacent upland zone. Second, modeling is facilitated by classifying wetland-related practices into two functional categories (wetland and upland buffer). Third, simulating practice effects requires alternative field configurations to account for hydrological differences among wetland types. These ideas are illustrated for two contrasting wetland types (riparian and depressional).

CEAP-Wetlands Science Note↗

USGS2017

Ecology and space: A case study in mapping harmful invasive species

The establishment and invasion of non-native plant species have the ability to alter the composition of native species and functioning of ecological systems with financial costs resulting from mitigation and loss of ecological services. Spatially documenting invasions has applications for management and theory, but the utility of maps is challenged by availability and uncertainty of data, and the reliability of extrapolating mapped data in time and space. The extent and resolution of projections also impact the ability to inform invasive species science and management. Early invasive species maps were coarse-grained representations that underscored the phenomena, but had limited capacity to direct management aside from development of watch lists for priorities for prevention and containment. Integrating mapped data sets with fine-resolution environmental variables in the context of species-distribution models allows a description of species-environment relationships and an understanding of how, why, and where invasions may occur. As with maps, the extent and resolution of models impact the resulting insight. Models of cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) across a variety of spatial scales and grain result in divergent species-environment relationships. New data can improve models and efficiently direct further inventories. Mapping can target areas of greater model uncertainty or the bounds of modeled distribution to efficiently refine models and maps. This iterative process results in dynamic, living maps capable of describing the ongoing process of species invasions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Dynamic environments generate geographic fluctuations in population structure of an inland shorebird

Species distributions depend on fine-scale ecological processes and population growth trajectories and are influenced by climate and weather changes. However, the characterization of inter-population dynamics underlying the geographic distributions of migratory organisms remains challenging. We adopted a stable isotope approach to investigate the dynamic population geography of a terrestrial migratory bird across multiple generations. We found that the age-specific geographic source of Mountain Plovers sampled during winter shifted over four years across a latitudinal gradient. Moreover, our results show that differential effects of climate on the probability of occurrence at the wintering ground could be a driver of population turnover in a migratory species adapted to extreme environmental stochasticity (i.e., drought occurrence). We propose a framework for the identification of spatial and temporal climate and weather components and respective effects on population composition and recruitment into migratory wintering populations. Our approach is useful to reveal population compositional shifts through hydrogen stable isotope analysis while accounting for cumulative drought effects.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2019

Assessment of operational and structural factors influencing performance of fish collectors in forebays of high-head dams

Providing efficient downstream passage is critical for improving populations of migratory fishes in impounded river systems. High‐head dams, such as those used for water storage or flood‐risk management, pose unique passage challenges requiring unique solutions. Systems to collect fish in dam forebays (“forebay collectors”) for transport to downstream release locations have been used at some high‐head dams in the western United States since the 1950s. Collection efficiency of these facilities has ranged from nearly 0% to 100%, suggesting the need for a better understanding of factors affecting performance in these complex environments if they are to be designed and deployed at new sites. We compiled information on environmental, structural, and performance characteristics of seven existing forebay collectors to quantify factors affecting their performance based on a meta‐analysis using a data set containing 52 separate collection estimates. Covariates included species type (steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha, Coho Salmon O. kisutch, and Sockeye Salmon O. nerka), collector inflow, collector entrance area, relative size of the dam forebay, and whether or not nets were used to enhance collection. We found that inflow, the use of lead nets, the size of the collector entrance area, the relative size of the dam forebay, and the interaction between collector entrance and forebay areas were significant predictors of collection performance. There was also evidence for differences between species. Chinook Salmon exhibited the lowest collection rates among the projects we examined, while steelhead collection rates were highest. These results provide guidance to design more efficient forebay collectors and improve the success of existing systems.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee↗

USGS2008

Elevated CO 2 enhances biological contributions to elevation change in coastal wetlands by offsetting stressors associated with sea-level rise

1. Sea-level rise, one indirect consequence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , poses a major challenge to long-term stability of coastal wetlands. An important question is whether direct effects of elevated CO 2 on the capacity of marsh plants to accrete organic material and to maintain surface elevations outweigh indirect negative effects of stressors associated with sea-level rise (salinity and flooding). 2. In this study, we used a mesocosm approach to examine potential direct and indirect effects of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, salinity and flooding on elevation change in a brackish marsh community dominated by a C 3 species, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a C 4 grass, Spartina patens. This experimental design permitted identification of mechanisms and their role in controlling elevation change, and the development of models that can be tested in the field. 3. To test hypotheses related to CO 2 and sea-level rise, we used conventional anova procedures in conjunction with structural equation modelling (SEM). SEM explained 78% of the variability in elevation change and showed the direct, positive effect of S. americanus production on elevation. The SEM indicated that C 3 plant response was influenced by interactive effects between CO 2 and salinity on plant growth, not a direct CO 2 fertilization effect. Elevated CO 2 ameliorated negative effects of salinity on S. americanus and enhanced biomass contribution to elevation. 4. The positive relationship between S. americanus production and elevation change can be explained by shoot-base expansion under elevated CO 2 conditions, which led to vertical soil displacement. While the response of this species may differ under other environmental conditions, shoot-base expansion and the general contribution of C 3 plant production to elevation change may be an important mechanism contributing to soil expansion and elevation gain in other coastal wetlands. 5. Synthesis. Our results revealed previously unrecognized interactions and mechanisms contributing to marsh elevation change, including amelioration of salt stress by elevated CO 2 and the importance of plant production and shoot-base expansion for elevation gain. Identification of biological processes contributing to elevation change is an important first step in developing comprehensive models that permit more accurate predictions of whether coastal marshes will persist with continued sea-level rise or become submerged. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2018

Modeling resource selection of bobcats (Lynx rufus) and vertebrate species distributions in Orange County, southern California

For nature reserves in urban settings, wildlife and wildlife habitats may be affected by recreational activities and intensive, adjacent development. Sustaining biodiversity in such reserves is a challenge for land and natural resource managers, but identification of core areas and key resources for wildlife species may help in planning for current and emerging threats. To help identify core areas and resources, we conducted spatial analyses and predictive modeling of vertebrate distributions for a network of nature reserves in densely populated Orange County, California. We primarily focused on bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), a species with a strong association with natural habitat. Bobcat space use has been correlated with broad, simple land-use categories, but relatively little is known about the influence of greater landscape complexity on habitat suitability for bobcats. To examine habitat selection by bobcats, we developed spatial data layers representing environmental factors that might influence this species, and we used previously collected Global Positioning System tracking data for 30 male and 21 female bobcats to indicate bobcat response to complex landscape factors. We examined these inputs using Resource Selection Function (RSF) modeling and developed spatially explicit models of the probability of bobcat use (selection or avoidance) of landscape characteristics. RSF models highlighted the general importance of reserve habitat for bobcats, but suggested that female bobcats were more dependent that male bobcats on habitat within designated reserves. Male bobcats, which range more widely than female bobcats, were associated with undeveloped areas both within and outside reserves. Small areas were present outside reserves that seemed to provide additional suitable habitat or movement areas for bobcats, potentially through restoration, connectivity, or reduced edge effects. Although bobcat RSFs suggested areas of high value to this species and potentially other species, taxa can differ greatly in their resource-selection and spatial requirements. Thus, for several species of reptiles, amphibians, and birds, we adapted species distribution models based on occurrence data to examine the response of other vertebrates to the landscape. To identify potential High-Value Areas (HVAs) for single or multiple species, we then developed a step-wise filtering process that can be applied to a series of spatial data layers. We provide examples of alternative decision models for HVAs that capture different elements of biodiversity and a range of management considerations. As landscape and management challenges change, these spatial layers and decision rules can be adjusted based on new information. Our approach thus establishes a general framework for identifying high-value habitat that can be used for current management decisions and refined in the future, depending on management interests and goals and the availability of suitable quality data or adequate surrogate information.

California↗

USGS2023

Science to support conservation action in a large river system: The Willamette River, Oregon, USA

Management and conservation efforts that support the recovery and protection of large rivers are daunting, reflecting the complexity of the challenge and extent of effort (in terms of policy, economic investment, and spatial extent) needed to afford measurable change. These large systems have generally experienced intensive development and regulation, compromising their capacity to respond to disturbances such as climate change or wildfire. Functionally, large river and basin management require insights gained from social, ecological, geophysical, and hydrological sciences. This multi-disciplinary perspective can unveil the integrated relationship between a river network's biotic community and seasonally variable environmental conditions that are often influenced by human activities. Large rivers and their basins are constantly changing due to anthropogenic influences and as climate modifies patterns of temperature and precipitation. Because of these factors, the state of knowledge must advance to address changing conditions. The Willamette River, in western Oregon, USA, is a prime example of a basin that has experienced significant degradation and investment in rehabilitation in recent decades. Innovative science has facilitated development of fine-scale, spatially extensive datasets and models that can generate targeted conservation and rehabilitation actions that are prioritized across the entire river network. This prioritization allows investment decisions to be driven by site-specific conditions while simultaneously considering potentials for ecological improvement. Here, we review hydrologic, geomorphic, ecologic, and social conditions in the Willamette River basin through time—including pre-settlement, river development, and contemporary periods—and offer a future vision for consideration. Currently, detailed information about fish populations and habitat, hydrologic conditions, geomorphology, water quality, and land use can be leveraged to make informed decisions about protection, rehabilitation, and development. The time is ripe for strategic management and goal development for the entire Willamette River, and these efforts can be informed by comprehensive science realized through established institutions (e.g., public agencies, non-profit watershed groups, Tribes, and universities) focused on conservation and management. The approaches to science and social-network creation that were pioneered in the Willamette River basin offer insights into the development of comprehensive conservation-based planning that could be implemented in other large river systems globally.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Trust Species and Habitat Branch: using the innovative approaches of today to conserve biodiversity for tomorrow

Some of the biggest challenges facing wildlife today are changes to their environment from both natural and anthropogenic causes. Natural resource managers, planners, policy makers, industry and private landowners must make informed decisions and policies regarding management, conservation, and restoration of species, habitats, and ecosystem function in response to these changes. Specific needs include (1) a better understanding of population status and trends; (2) understanding of species’ habitat needs and roles in supporting ecosystem functions; (3) the ability to assess species’ responses to environmental changes and predict future responses; and (4) the development of innovative techniques and tools to better understand, minimize or prevent any unintended consequences of environmental change. The Trust Species and Habitats Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center includes a diverse group of scientists encompassing both traditional and specialized expertise in wildlife biology, ecosystem ecology, quantitative ecology, disease ecology, molecular genetics, and stable isotope geochemistry. Using our expertise and collaborating with others around the world, our goal is to provide the information, tools, and technologies that our partners need to support conservation, management, and restoration of terrestrial vertebrate populations, habitats, and ecosystem function in a changing world.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of sensor types and environmental controls on mapping biomass of coastal marsh emergent vegetation

There is a need to quantify large-scale plant productivity in coastal marshes to understand marsh resilience to sea level rise, to help define eligibility for carbon offset credits, and to monitor impacts from land use, eutrophication and contamination. Remote monitoring of aboveground biomass of emergent wetland vegetation will help address this need. Differences in sensor spatial resolution, bandwidth, temporal frequency and cost constrain the accuracy of biomass maps produced for management applications. In addition the use of vegetation indices to map biomass may not be effective in wetlands due to confounding effects of water inundation on spectral reflectance. To address these challenges, we used partial least squares regression to select optimal spectral features in situ and with satellite reflectance data to develop predictive models of aboveground biomass for common emergent freshwater marsh species, Typha spp. and Schoenoplectus acutus , at two restored marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA. We used field spectrometer data to test model errors associated with hyperspectral narrowbands and multispectral broadbands, the influence of water inundation on prediction accuracy, and the ability to develop species specific models. We used Hyperion data, Digital Globe World View-2 (WV-2) data, and Landsat 7 data to scale up the best statistical models of biomass. Field spectrometer-based models of the full dataset showed that narrowband reflectance data predicted biomass somewhat, though not significantly better than broadband reflectance data [R 2 = 0.46 and percent normalized RMSE (%RMSE) = 16% for narrowband models]. However hyperspectral first derivative reflectance spectra best predicted biomass for plots where water levels were less than 15 cm (R 2 = 0.69, %RMSE = 12.6%). In species-specific models, error rates differed by species ( Typha spp.: %RMSE = 18.5%; S. acutus : %RMSE = 24.9%), likely due to the more vertical structure and deeper water habitat of S. acutus. The Landsat 7 dataset (7 images) predicted biomass slightly better than the WV-2 dataset (6 images) (R 2 = 0.56, %RMSE = 20.9%, compared to R 2 = 0.45, RMSE = 21.5%). The Hyperion dataset (one image) was least successful in predicting biomass (R 2 = 0.27, %RMSE = 33.5%). Shortwave infrared bands on 30 m-resolution Hyperion and Landsat 7 sensors aided biomass estimation; however managers need to weigh tradeoffs between cost, additional spectral information, and high spatial resolution that will identify variability in small, fragmented marshes common to the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta and elsewhere in the Western U.S.

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