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USGS2023

Variations in climate drive behavior and survival of small desert tortoises

In the Mojave Desert, timing and amounts of precipitation profoundly affect availability of water and annual plant foods necessary for the threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) to survive, especially during prolonged droughts. As part of recovery actions to increase declining populations, we translocated 83 juvenile and young desert tortoises raised in head-start pens for 4–10 years to a new location 15 km away during fall of 2013 and 2014. We tracked them for 9 years during a megadrought, during multiple years of low rainfall and a few years when precipitation neared or exceeded long-term norms. We evaluated behaviors and how precipitation and forage availability affected survival. At the end of the study, 21.6% of tortoises were alive and 6 had grown to adulthood. Annual models of survival indicated that tortoise size was the driving variable in most years, followed by number of repeatedly used burrows during periods of temperature extremes. Other variables affecting survival in ≥1 year were vegetation, movements during the first 2 years post-translocation, and condition index, a measure of health. Tortoises moved more, expanded home ranges, and grew rapidly in years when winter rainfall approached or exceeded long-term norms and annual plants were available to eat. During dry years, movements and growth were limited. Exceptions to this pattern occurred in the last year of study, a dry year: tortoises grew, moved more, and home ranges increased. The increase in size and approaching adulthood may have stimulated greater travelling. Some left the study area, indicating a need for large release areas. We may have aided survival by offering water twice yearly when handling, because some tortoises drank and increased in mass up to 40%. Prolonged droughts and hotter temperatures can limit recovery of populations, reduce survival of young tortoises, and increase the time to maturity.

California↗

USGS2014

Hillslope-scale experiment demonstrates role of convergence during two-step saturation

Subsurface flow and storage dynamics at hillslope scale are difficult to ascertain, often in part due to a lack of sufficient high-resolution measurements and an incomplete understanding of boundary conditions, soil properties, and other environmental aspects. A continuous and extreme rainfall experiment on an artificial hillslope at Biosphere 2's Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) resulted in saturation excess overland flow and gully erosion in the convergent hillslope area. An array of 496 soil moisture sensors revealed a two-step saturation process. First, the downward movement of the wetting front brought soils to a relatively constant but still unsaturated moisture content. Second, soils were brought to saturated conditions from below in response to rising water tables. Convergent areas responded faster than upslope areas, due to contributions from lateral subsurface flow driven by the topography of the bottom boundary, which is comparable to impermeable bedrock in natural environments. This led to the formation of a groundwater ridge in the convergent area, triggering saturation excess runoff generation. This unique experiment demonstrates, at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the role of convergence on subsurface storage and flow dynamics. The results bring into question the representation of saturation excess overland flow in conceptual rainfall-runoff models and land-surface models, since flow is gravity-driven in many of these models and upper layers cannot become saturated from below. The results also provide a baseline to study the role of the co-evolution of ecological and hydrological processes in determining landscape water dynamics during future experiments in LEO.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2003

Spring hunting changes the regional movements of migrating greater snow geese

1. Human-induced disturbance such as hunting may influence the migratory behaviour of long-distance migrants. In 1999 and 2000 a spring hunt of greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus occurred for the first time in North America since 1916, aimed at stopping population growth to protect natural habitats. 2. We evaluated the impact of this hunt on the staging movements of geese along a 600-km stretch of the St Lawrence River in southern Quebec, Canada. 3. We tracked radio-tagged female geese in three contiguous regions of the staging area from the south-west to the north-east: Lake St Pierre, Upper Estuary and Lower Estuary, in spring 1997 (n = 37) and 1998 (n = 70) before the establishment of hunting , and in 1999 (n = 60) and 2000 (n = 59) during hunting . 4. We used multi-state capture-recapture models to estimate the movement probabilities of radio-tagged females among these regions. To assess disturbance level, we tracked geese during their feeding trips and estimated the probability of completing a foraging bout without being disturbed. 5. In the 2 years without hunting , migration was strongly unidirectional from the south-west to the north-east, with very low westward movement probabilities. Geese gradually moved from Lake St Pierre to Upper Estuary and then from Upper Estuary to Lower Estuary. 6. In contrast, during the 2 years with hunting westward movement was more than four times more likely than in preceding years. Most of these backward movements occurred shortly after the beginning of the hunt, indicating that geese moved back to regions where they had not previously experienced hunting . 7. Overall disturbance level increased in all regions in years with hunting relative to years without hunting . 8. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that spring hunting changed the stopover scheduling of this long-distance migrant and might further impact population dynamics by reducing prenuptial fattening. The spring hunt may also have increased crop damage. We propose that staggered hunt opening dates could attenuate secondary effects of such management actions.

Quebec↗

USGS2013

Wildlife connectivity approaches and best practices in U.S. state wildlife action plans

As habitat loss and fragmentation threaten biodiversity on large geographic scales, creating and maintaining connectivity of wildlife populations is an increasingly common conservation objective. To assess the progress and success of large-scale connectivity planning, conservation researchers need a set of plans that cover large geographic areas and can be analyzed as a single data set. The state wildlife action plans (SWAPs) fulfill these requirements. We examined 50 SWAPs to determine the extent to which wildlife connectivity planning, via linkages, is emphasized nationally. We defined linkage as connective land that enables wildlife movement. For our content analysis, we identified and quantified 6 keywords and 7 content criteria that ranged in specificity and were related to linkages for wide-ranging terrestrial vertebrates and examined relations between content criteria and statewide data on focal wide-ranging species, spending, revenue, and conserved land. Our results reflect nationwide disparities in linkage conservation priorities and highlight the continued need for wildlife linkage planning. Only 30% or less of the 50 SWAPs fulfilled highly specific content criteria (e.g., identifying geographic areas for linkage placement or management). We found positive correlations between our content criteria and statewide data on percent conserved land, total focal species, and spending on parks and recreation. We supplemented our content analysis with interviews with 17 conservation professionals to gain specific information about state-specific context and future directions of linkage conservation. Based on our results, relevant literature, and interview responses, we suggest the following best practices for wildlife linkage conservation plans: collect ecologically meaningful background data; be specific; establish community-wide partnerships; and incorporate sociopolitical and socioeconomic information.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2023

Effects of sucker gigging on fish populations in Oklahoma scenic rivers

Suckers (Catostomidae) are ecologically important, and some support popular fisheries, despite not being considered ‘sport fish’ in most states. Gigging suckers is a popular and culturally significant pastime in the Ozark Highlands, but little is known about the effect of gigging harvest on population dynamics of suckers. Therefore, research is needed to determine safe levels of sucker harvest that ensure sustainability of sucker gigging and protect overall ecosystem function. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine the spatial distribution of common sucker species during spawning season (when sucker gigging is most effective), 2) determine the population size, age structure , and total mortality rate for common sucker species, and 3) model the effects of different harvest rates on sucker populations to determine the harvest rate at which growth overfishing and recruitment overfishing begin. Suckers were sampled using electrofishing, modified fyke netting, gillnetting, hoop netting, and seining and marked with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to provide information about population size, demographics, and coarse-scale movement patterns. A subset of fish sampled using the above gears and additional fish collected during gigging tournaments in 2017-2019 and 2021-2022 (no tournament was held in 2020) were used for age analyses. Tournament data collected prior to the initiation of this project were obtained from the state agency. Data from gigging tournaments indicated Golden Redhorse Moxostoma erythrurum, Black Redhorse M. duquesnei, White Sucker Catostomus commersonii, and Spotted Sucker Minytrema melanops were vulnerable to gigging harvest. Selection by giggers for larger individuals was apparent for all species except Golden Redhorse in 2019. Spotted Suckers constituted most fish harvested, but the proportion of each species harvested still varied among years. A total of 943 fish were aged from samples obtained from 2017 to 2022 and results from subsequent analyses indicated a high degree of variation in growth rates within and among species. Over 4,700 suckers were tagged with PIT tags and over 400 recaptures of these tagged fish were made since autumn 2018. Preliminary analyses indicate survival was consistent across samples and species, and detection rates varied by sampling event (3-month periods). Our most likely top multistrata model suggested that a large portion of fish within the upper Spavinaw, lower Spavinaw, and reservoir sections remain in these locations year-round (means: 0.46 – 0.67). Despite this, transition probabilities are still high for movement from upper Spavinaw to lower Spavinaw (mean: 0.32) and from lower Spavinaw to upper Spavinaw (mean: 0.38). Likewise, transition probabilities were high for movement from lower Spavinaw to the reservoir (mean: 0.15) and from the reservoir to lower Spavinaw (mean: 0.32). Transition probabilities between upper Spavinaw and the reservoir were low in both directions (means < 0.01). Population sizes, growth trajectories and length-weight relationships varied among species. Preliminary harvest models suggest species-specific regulation may be scientifically appropriate; however, it may be difficult for giggers to identify species while gigging. Based on our model results, there appears to be little risk of recruitment or growth overfishing for any species at current exploitation levels.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2017

Can ozone be used to control the spread of freshwater Aquatic Invasive Species?

The introduction of aquatic invasive species to non-native habitats can cause negative ecological effects and also billions of dollars in economic damage to governments and private industries. Once aquatic invasive species are introduced, eradication may be difficult without adversely affecting native species and habitats, urging resource managers to find preventative methods to protect non-invaded areas. The use of ozone (O 3 ) as a non-physical barrier has shown promise as it is lethal to a wide range of aquatic taxa, requires a short contact time, and is relatively environmentally safe in aquatic systems when compared to other chemicals. However, before O 3 can be considered as an approach to prevent the spread of aquatic invasive species, its effects on non-target organisms and already established aquatic invasive species must be fully evaluated. A review of the current literature was conducted to summarize data regarding the effects of O 3 on aquatic taxa including fish, macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, phytoplankton, microbes, and pathogens. In addition, we assessed the practicality of ozone applications to control the movement of aquatic invasive species, and identified data gaps concerning the use of O 3 as a non-physical barrier in field applications.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

USGS2025

Fine-scale spatial risk models to predict avian collisions with power lines

1. Avian fatalities caused by collisions with overhead power lines are an important conservation issue worldwide. Although mitigation strategies can help reduce mortalities, given their considerable cost and the vast scale of power line infrastructure, cost-effective action requires that these efforts be prioritised to areas with the highest potential risk to birds. To date, this risk assessment has usually been guided by potentially biased information on the location of recorded fatalities. 2. Here we use five years of GPS tracking data from endangered Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles to develop an alternative approach to risk assessment: fine-scale spatial risk models based on behavioural analyses. We built and cross-validated a model that generates spatially explicit predictions of the probability that eagles would cross power lines at hazardous altitudes throughout the entire Tasmanian electricity distribution network. 3. In our model, probability of power line crossings was most strongly associated with the proportion of forest edges, wet forest, open habitat, freshwater sources, and rural residential developments in the area surrounding the power lines. Cross-validation indicated that the model effectively predicted where Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles cross power lines at low altitude. 4. Model validation suggested our approach was a powerful predictor of the locations of power line collisions involving eagles. The locations of almost all (94%) confirmed eagle fatalities were in the half of the total Tasmanian power line area assigned the higher risk by the model, and 50% of incidents occurred in the 30% of the power line area estimated to be highest risk. 5. Synthesis and applications . Our study illustrates a framework for using bird movement data to provide insights into avian behaviour and the risk they encounter around power line infrastructure. Electricity delivery industries can use these models to identify the electrical infrastructure that poses the highest risk to avian survival and prioritise mitigation efforts, thereby optimizing the benefit of investments to reduce detrimental effects on biodiversity. Our model can direct pre-emptive mitigation across Tasmania’s 20,310 km of distribution infrastructure to meet management targets aiming to reduce the negative effects of power lines on the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle.

Tasmania↗

USGS2025

Using GPS tracking data to validate the conservation value of bird migration counts

Effective conservation of migratory birds requires gathering of information about their population trends, often acquired using migratory bird counts. These schemes ideally operate at migratory bottlenecks, through which a significant portion of the counted migratory populations is funneled. Yet it is rare to validate the conservation value of the data from these counts. Here we perform this validation using GPS tracking data collected from two migratory species during their movement over two count schemes: the globally endangered steppe eagle counted in Eilat, Israel, and the black kite, counted in Batumi, Georgia. We use tracking data to answer two questions: which populations are counted and what affects the probability that a given individual will be counted. Our results illustrate variability in the effectiveness of these two migratory bird counting schemes. Considering the goal of estimating population trends, we show that Eilat does not represent a good location for understanding population trends of steppe eagles, while Batumi appears to provide better information on demographic trends of black kites. We further present differences in annual and individual variability, evidence regarding the breeding area origins of the counted populations and effects of environmental factors on the raptors' routes and, consequently, on the probabilities of being counted. Beyond the direct implications of our results, this study provides an example of using telemetry data to parameterize inference from bird counts. Further coupling of migratory bird count data and GPS data can improve our understanding of migration ecology and the conservation of migratory species.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2009

Disease, predation and demography: Assessing the impacts of bovine tuberculosis on African buffalo by monitoring at individual and population levels

Summary Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long‐lived host. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf ( P = 0·065). Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1·5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test‐positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AIC c model with BTB as a covariate [exp(β) = 0·49; 95% CI = (0·24–1·02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test‐negative individuals. Synthesis and applications . Test accuracy, time‐varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non‐linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods.

Kruger National Park↗

USGS2005

Delineating priority habitat areas for the conservation of Andean bears in northern Ecuador

We sought to identify priority areas for the conservation of Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) habitat in the northern portion of the eastern Andean cordillera in Ecuador. The study area included pa??ramo and montane forest habitats within the Antisana and Cayambe-Coca ecological reserves, and unprotected areas north of these reserves with elevations ranging from 1,800 to 4,300 m. We collected data on bear occurrence along 53 transects during 2000-01 in the Oyacachi River basin, an area of indigenous communities within the Cayambe-Coca Ecological Reserve. We used those data and a set of 7 environmental variables to predict suitability of Andean bear habitat using Mahalanobis distance, a multivariate measure of dissimilarity. The Mahalanobis distance values were classified into 5 classes of habitat suitability and generalized to a resolution of 1,650-m ?? 1,650-m grid cells. Clusters of grid cells with high suitability values were delineated from the generalized model and denned as important habitat areas (IHAs) for conservation. The IHAs were ranked using a weighted index that included factors of elevation range, influence from disturbed areas, and current conservation status. We identified 12 IHAs, which were mainly associated with pa??ramo and cloud forest habitats; 2 of these areas have high conservation priorities because they are outside existing reserves and close to areas of human pressure. The distribution of the IHAs highlighted the role of human land use as the main source of fragmentation of Andean bear habitat in this region, emphasizing the importance of preserving habitat connectivity to allow the seasonal movements among habitat types that we documented for this species. Furthermore, the existence of areas with high habitat suitability close to areas of intense human use indicates the importance of bear-human conflict management as a critical Andean bear conservation strategy. We suggest that a promising conservation opportunity for this species is linked to its occurrence in highland habitats, which play a key role in the maintenance of long-term water supplies.

Ursus↗

USGS2018

Flyway structure in the circumpolar greater white‐fronted goose

Dispersal and migratory behavior are influential factors in determining how genetic diversity is distributed across the landscape. In migratory species, genetic structure can be promoted via several mechanisms including fidelity to distinct migratory routes. Particularly within North America, waterfowl management units have been delineated according to distinct longitudinal migratory flyways supported by banding data and other direct evidence. The greater white‐fronted goose ( Anser albifrons ) is a migratory waterfowl species with a largely circumpolar distribution consisting of up to six subspecies roughly corresponding to phenotypic variation. We examined the rangewide population genetic structure of greater white‐fronted geese using mtDNA control region sequence data and microsatellite loci from 23 locales across North America and Eurasia. We found significant differentiation in mtDNA between sampling locales with flyway delineation explaining a significant portion of the observed genetic variation (~12%). This is concordant with band recovery data which shows little interflyway or intercontinental movements. However, microsatellite loci revealed little genetic structure suggesting a panmictic population across most of the Arctic. As with many high‐latitude species, Beringia appears to have played a role in the diversification of this species. A common Beringian origin of North America and Asian populations and a recent divergence could at least partly explain the general lack of structure at nuclear markers. Further, our results do not provide strong support for the various taxonomic proposals for this species except for supporting the distinctness of two isolated breeding populations within Cook Inlet, Alaska ( A. a. elgasi ) and Greenland ( A. a. flavirostris ), consistent with their subspecies status.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Risky movements? Natal dispersal does not decrease survival of a large herbivore

Natal dispersal is assumed to be a particularly risky movement behavior as individuals transfer, often long distances, from birth site to site of potential first reproduction. Though, because this behavior persists in populations, it is assumed that dispersal increases the fitness of individuals despite the potential for increased risk of mortality. The extent of dispersal risk, however, has rarely been tested, especially for large mammals. Therefore, we aimed to test the relationship between dispersal and survival for both males and females in a large herbivore. Using a radio-transmittered sample of 398 juvenile male and 276 juvenile female white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) , we compared survival rates of dispersers and non-dispersers. We predicted that dispersing deer would experience greater overall mortality than philopatric deer due to direct transfer-related risks (e.g., vehicular collision), indirect immigration-related mortality attributable to colonization of unfamiliar habitat, and increased over-winter mortality associated with energetic costs of movement and unfamiliarity with recently colonized habitat. For both male and female yearlings, survival rates of dispersers (male = 49.9%, female = 64.0%) did not differ from non-dispersers (male = 51.6%, female = 70.7%). Only two individuals (both female) were killed by vehicular collision during transfer, and over-winter survival patterns were similar between the two groups. Although dispersal movement likely incurs energetic costs on dispersers, these costs do not necessarily translate to decreased survival. In many species, including white-tailed deer, dispersal is likely condition-dependent, such that larger and healthier individuals are more likely to disperse; therefore, costs associated with dispersal are more likely to be borne successfully by those individuals that do disperse. Whether low-risk dispersal of large mammals is the rule or the exception will require additional research. Further, future research is needed to evaluate non-survival fitness-related costs and benefits of dispersal (e.g., increased reproductive opportunities for dispersers).

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2022

Industrial energy development decouples ungulate migration from the green wave

The ability to freely move across the landscape to track the emergence of nutritious spring green-up (termed ‘green-wave surfing’) is key to the foraging strategy of migratory ungulates. Across the vast landscapes traversed by many migratory herds, habitats are being altered by development with unknown consequences for surfing. Using a unique long-term tracking dataset, we found that when energy development occurs within mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) migration corridors, migrating animals become decoupled from the green wave. During the early phases of a coalbed natural gas development, deer synchronized their movements with peak green-up. But faced with increasing disturbance as development expanded, deer altered their movements by holding up at the edge of the gas field and letting the green wave pass them by. Development often modified only a small portion of the migration corridor but had far-reaching effects on behaviour before and after migrating deer encountered it, thus reducing surfing along the entire route by 38.65% over the 14-year study period. Our study suggests that industrial development within migratory corridors can change the behaviour of migrating ungulates and diminish the benefits of migration. Such disruptions to migratory behaviour present a common mechanism whereby corridors become unprofitable and could ultimately be lost on highly developed landscapes.

Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Science (PES) initiative to provide the ecological science required during Everglades restoration, we have integrated current regional hydrologic models with American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) research and monitoring data to create a model that assesses the potential impact of Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) efforts on the American crocodile. A list of indicators was created by the Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) component of CERP to help determine the success of interim restoration goals. The American crocodile was established as an indicator of the ecological condition of mangrove estuaries due to its reliance upon estuarine environments characterized by low salinity and adequate freshwater inflow. To gain a better understanding of the potential impact of CERP restoration efforts on the American crocodile, a spatially explicit crocodile population model has been created that has the ability to simulate the response of crocodiles to various management strategies for the South Florida ecosystem. The crocodile model uses output from the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) model, an application of the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. TIME has the capability to link to the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), which is the primary regional tool used to assess CERP restoration scenarios. A crocodile habitat suitability index and spatial parameter maps that reflect salinity, water depth, habitat, and nesting locations are used as driving functions to construct crocodile finite rate of increase maps under different management scenarios. Local stage-structured models are integrated with a spatial landscape grid to display crocodile movement behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Restoration efforts are expected to affect salinity levels throughout the habitat of the American crocodile. This modeling effort examines how CERP restoration alternatives will affect growth and survival rates of hatchling and juvenile crocodiles, hatchling dispersal to suitable nursery habitat, and relative abundance and distribution in response to changing salinity and water depth for all stage classes of crocodiles. The response of the American crocodile to restoration efforts will provide a quantifiable measure of restoration success. By applying the crocodile model to proposed restoration alternatives and predicting population responses, we can choose alternatives that approximate historical conditions, enhance habitat for multiple species, and identify future research needs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Influences of potential oil and gas development and future climate on Sage-grouse declines and redistribution

Multiple environmental stressors impact wildlife populations, but we often know little about their cumulative and combined influences on population outcomes. We generally know more about past effects than potential future impacts, and direct influences such as changes of habitat footprints than indirect, long-term responses in behavior, distribution, or abundance. Yet, an understanding of all these components is needed to plan for future landscapes that include human activities and wildlife. We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual-based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater Sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, USA, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes 50 years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we recalculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term Sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered a useful means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. The inclusion of movement and demographic responses to oil and gas infrastructure resulted in substantive changes in distribution and abundance when cumulated over several decades and throughout the regional population. When combined, additive development and climate-induced vegetation changes reduced abundance by up to half of the original size. In our example, the consideration of only a single population stressor the final possible population size by as much as 50%. Multiple stressors and their cumulative impacts need to be broadly considered through space and time to avoid underestimating the impacts of multiple gradual changes and overestimating the ability of populations to withstand change.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

The use of conceptual ecological models to identify critical data and uncertainties to support numerical modeling: The northern Gulf of Mexico eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica example

Objective Increasing reliance on numerical simulation models to help inform management and restoration choices benefits from careful consideration of critical early steps in model development. Along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fulfills important ecological and economic roles. Using the eastern oyster as an example, we draw on several recent frameworks outlining best practices for model development and application for restoration, conservation, and management. Methods We identify priority model questions, outline a conceptual ecological model (CEM) to guide numerical model development, and use this framework to identify uncertainties and research needs. Result The CEM uses a nested design, identifying explicit vital rates, processes, attributes, and outcomes for the species (oysters), population, and metapopulation (i.e., network of populations) levels in response to drivers of species, population, and metapopulation changes and changing environmental factors. Most management actions related to oyster restoration and harvest affect population attributes directly, but many coastal management actions and changes (i.e., climate change and coastal and water resource engineering) impact environmental factors that alter vital rates and attributes of oysters, populations, and metapopulations. Conclusion Investment in studies targeting individual oyster‐ and population‐level multi‐stressor responses (filtration, respiration, growth, and reproduction) and improving hydrodynamic and environmental models targeting drivers that influence metapopulation vital rates and attributes (i.e., connectivity and substrate persistence) would contribute to reducing uncertainties. Development of numerical models covering the entire oyster life cycle and connectivity of populations using hydrodynamic models of current and predicted conditions to provide key abiotic and biotic factors influencing larval movement, recruitment, and on‐reef oyster vital rates would assist in balancing the goals of conservation, restoration, and fisheries management of this foundational estuarine species.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2017

Shifting brucellosis risk in livestock coincides with spreading seroprevalence in elk

Tracking and preventing the spillover of disease from wildlife to livestock can be difficult when rare outbreaks occur across large landscapes. In these cases, broad scale ecological studies could help identify risk factors and patterns of risk to inform management and reduce incidence of disease. Between 2002 and 2014, 21 livestock herds in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) were affected by brucellosis, a bacterial disease caused by Brucella abortus , while no affected herds were detected between 1990 and 2001. Using a Bayesian analysis, we examined several ecological covariates that may be associated with affected livestock herds across the region. We showed that livestock risk has been increasing over time and expanding outward from the historical nexus of brucellosis in wild elk on Wyoming’s feeding grounds where elk are supplementally fed during the winter. Although elk were the presumed source of cattle infections, occurrences of affected livestock herds were only weakly associated with the density of seropositive elk across the GYA. However, the shift in livestock risk did coincide with recent increases in brucellosis seroprevalence in unfed elk populations. As increasing brucellosis in unfed elk likely stemmed from high levels of the disease in fed elk, disease-related costs of feeding elk have probably been incurred across the entire GYA, rather than solely around the feeding grounds. Our results suggest that focused disease mitigation in areas where seroprevalence in unfed elk is high could reduce the spillover of brucellosis to livestock. We also highlight the need to better understand the epidemiology of spillover events with detailed histories of disease testing, calving, and movement of infected livestock. Finally, we recommend using case-control studies to investigate local factors important to livestock risk.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Occurrence, habitat, and movements of the endangered northern madtom ( Noturus stigmosus ) in the Detroit River, 2003-2011

The northern madtom ( Noturus stigmosus or NOM) is a small catfish, native to North America. It is globally vulnerable and endangered in Canada, Ontario, and Michigan. In 1994 and 1996, it was found in the St. Clair River and in Lake St. Clair, respectively. However, it had not been found downstream in the Detroit River since 1978. We report catches of 304 NOM from 2003 to 2011 and describe their mud and sand habitats in the deep (10 m), dark, Detroit River. We found adult NOM, including 3 ripe males (90–107 mm SL) in head waters of the river near Belle Isle in Michigan waters, and both adult and 4 juvenile NOM (21–30 mm SL) near Peche Island in Ontario waters. From 2009 to 2011, in the river's middle reach, we caught 7 adult NOM for the first time near Fighting Island in Ontario waters, but no NOM in the river's lower reach. Our mark–recapture results showed that within 6 weeks, 2 adult NOM moved east 2.0 km from Michigan waters near Belle Isle across the deep (10 m) Fleming Channel of the Detroit River to Canadian waters near Peche Island. Analysis of annuli from pectoral spines of 7 dead NOM revealed that they live to at least 6 years of age in the Detroit River. This is the first age data that we could find for a NOM population. Our findings extended our knowledge of habitat, reproductive ecology, age, and distribution of NOM in the Detroit River corridor.

Michigan, Ontario↗