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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

The progression of basaltic–rhyolitic melt storage at Yellowstone Caldera

Yellowstone Caldera is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth, hosting three major caldera-forming eruptions in the past two million years, interspersed with periods of less explosive, smaller-volume eruptions 1 . Caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone are sourced by rhyolitic melts stored within the mid- to upper crust. Seismic tomography studies have suggested that a broad region of rhyolitic melt extends beneath Yellowstone Caldera, with an estimated melt volume that is one to four times greater than the eruptive volume of the largest past caldera-forming eruption, and an estimated melt fraction of 6–28 per cent 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Seismic velocity is strongly influenced by temperature, pressure and melt; however, magnetotelluric data are primarily sensitive to the presence of melt, making these data ideal for constraining volcanic systems. Here we utilize magnetotelluric data to model the resistivity structure of Yellowstone Caldera’s crustal magma reservoir and constrain the region’s potential for producing major volcanic eruptions. We find that rhyolitic melts are stored in segregated regions beneath the caldera with low melt fractions, indicating that the reservoirs are not eruptible. Typically, these regions have melt volumes equivalent to small-volume post-caldera Yellowstone eruptions. The largest region of rhyolitic melt storage, concentrated beneath northeast Yellowstone Caldera, has a storage volume similar to the eruptive volume of Yellowstone’s smallest caldera-forming eruption. We identify regions of basalt migrating from the lower crust, merging with and supplying heat to the northeast region of rhyolitic melt storage. On the basis of our analysis, we suggest that the locus of future rhyolitic volcanism has shifted to northeast Yellowstone Caldera.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Landsat surface product validation instrumentation: The BigMAC exercise

Users of Earth remotely sensed optical imagery are increasingly demanding a surface reflectance or surface temperature product instead of the top-of-atmosphere products that have been produced historically. Validating the accuracy of surface products remains a difficult task since it involves assessment across a range of atmospheric profiles, as well as many different land surface types. Thus, standard approaches from the satellite calibration community do not apply and new technologies need to be developed. The Big Multi-Agency Campaign (BigMAC) was developed to assess current technologies that might be used for validation of surface products derived from satellite imagery, with emphasis on Landsat. Conducted in August, 2021, in Brookings, SD, USA, a variety of measurement technologies were fielded and assessed for accuracy, precision, and deployability. Each technology exhibited its strengths and weaknesses. Handheld spectroradiometers are capable of surface reflectance measurements with accuracies in the 0.01 - 0.02 absolute reflectance units, but are expensive to deploy. Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)-based radiometers have the potential of making measurements with similar accuracy, but are also difficult to deploy. Mirror-based empirical line methods showed improving accuracy potential, but deployment also remains an issue. However, there are inexpensive radiometers designed for long-term autonomous use that exhibited good accuracy and precision, as well as being easy to deploy. Thermal measurement technologies showed accuracy potential in the 1 - 2K range, and some easily deployable instruments are available. Results from BigMAC indicate there are technologies available today to begin making operational surface reflectance/temperature measurements and strong potential for improvements in the future.

Sensors↗

On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO 2 , lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO 2 . However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO 2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions

Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonally, and interannually). Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter shoreline change model to predict coastal erosion and uncertainty due to waves at a variety of time scales. We compare shoreline change projections, simulated with and without ensemble wave forcing conditions by applying ensemble wave time series produced by a computationally efficient statistical downscaling method. We demonstrate a sizable (site-dependent) increase in model uncertainty compared with the unrealistic case of model projections based on a single, deterministic realization (e.g., a single time series) of the wave forcing. We support model-derived uncertainty estimates with a novel mathematical analysis of ensembles of idealized process models. Here, the developed ensemble modeling approach is applied to a well-monitored beach in Tairua, New Zealand. However, the model and uncertainty quantification techniques derived here are generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world.

JGR Earth Surface↗

Sorted bed forms as self-organized patterns: 2. complex forcing scenarios

We employ a numerical model to study the development of sorted bed forms under a variety of hydrodynamic and sedimentary conditions. Results indicate that increased variability in wave height decreases the growth rate of the features and can potentially give rise to complicated, a priori unpredictable, behavior. This happens because the system responds to a change in wave characteristics by attempting to self-organize into a patterned seabed of different geometry and spacing. The new wavelength might not have enough time to emerge before a new change in wave characteristics occurs, leading to less regular seabed configurations. The new seabed configuration is also highly dependent on the preexisting morphology, which further limits the possibility of predicting future behavior. For the same reasons, variability in the mean current magnitude and direction slows down the growth of features and causes patterns to develop that differ from classical sorted bed forms. Spatial variability in grain size distribution and different types of net sediment aggradation/degradation can also result in the development of sorted bed forms characterized by a less regular shape. Numerical simulations qualitatively agree with observed geometry (spacing and height) of sorted bed forms. Also in agreement with observations is that at shallower depths, sorted bed forms are more likely to be affected by changes in the forcing conditions, which might also explain why, in shallow waters, sorted bed forms are described as ephemeral features. Finally, simulations indicate that the different sorted bed form shapes and patterns observed in the field might not necessarily be related to diverse physical mechanisms. Instead, variations in sorted bed form characteristics may result from variations in local hydrodynamic and/or sedimentary conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Geodetic and seismic constraints on some seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica

New seismic and geodetic data from Costa Rica provide insight into seismogenic zone processes in Central America, where the Cocos and Caribbean plates converge. Seismic data are from combined land and ocean bottom deployments in the Nicoya peninsula in northern Costa Rica and near the Osa peninsula in southern Costa Rica. In Nicoya, inversion of GPS data suggests two locked patches centered at 14 ± 2 and 39 ± 6 km depth. Interplate microseismicity is concentrated in the more freely slipping intermediate zone, suggesting that small interseismic earthquakes may not accurately outline the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, the rupture zone for future large earthquakes, at least over the short (∼1 year) observation period. We also estimate northwest motion of a coastal “sliver block” at 8 ± 3 mm/yr, probably related to oblique convergence. In the Osa region to the south, convergence is orthogonal to the trench. Cocos-Caribbean relative motion is partitioned here, with ∼8 cm/yr on the Cocos-Panama block boundary (including a component of permanent shortening across the Fila Costeña fold and thrust belt) and ∼1 cm/yr on the Panama block–Caribbean boundary. The GPS data suggest that the Cocos plate–Panama block boundary is completely locked from ∼10–50 km depth. This large locked zone, as well as associated forearc and back-arc deformation, may be related to subduction of the shallow Cocos Ridge and/or younger lithosphere compared to Nicoya, with consequent higher coupling and compressive stress in the direction of plate convergence.

Nicoya Peninsula, Osa Peninsula↗

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments ( Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Global and Planeatary Change↗

Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010)

In 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a global topographic elevation model designated as GTOPO30 at a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds for the entire Earth. Because no single source of topographic information covered the entire land surface, GTOPO30 was derived from eight raster and vector sources that included a substantial amount of U.S. Defense Mapping Agency data. The quality of the elevation data in GTOPO30 varies widely; there are no spatially-referenced metadata, and the major topographic features such as ridgelines and valleys are not well represented. Despite its coarse resolution and limited attributes, GTOPO30 has been widely used for a variety of hydrological, climatological, and geomorphological applications as well as military applications, where a regional, continental, or global scale topographic model is required. These applications have ranged from delineating drainage networks and watersheds to using digital elevation data for the extraction of topographic structure and three-dimensional (3D) visualization exercises (Jenson and Domingue, 1988; Verdin and Greenlee, 1996; Lehner and others, 2008). Many of the fundamental geophysical processes active at the Earth's surface are controlled or strongly influenced by topography, thus the critical need for high-quality terrain data (Gesch, 1994). U.S. Department of Defense requirements for mission planning, geographic registration of remotely sensed imagery, terrain visualization, and map production are similarly dependent on global topographic data. Since the time GTOPO30 was completed, the availability of higher-quality elevation data over large geographic areas has improved markedly. New data sources include global Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTEDRegistered) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Canadian elevation data, and data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). Given the widespread use of GTOPO30 and the equivalent 30-arc-second DTEDRegistered level 0, the USGS and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) have collaborated to produce an enhanced replacement for GTOPO30, the Global Land One-km Base Elevation (GLOBE) model and other comparable 30-arc-second-resolution global models, using the best available data. The new model is called the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010, or GMTED2010 for short. This suite of products at three different resolutions (approximately 1,000, 500, and 250 meters) is designed to support many applications directly by providing users with generic products (for example, maximum, minimum, and median elevations) that have been derived directly from the raw input data that would not be available to the general user or would be very costly and time-consuming to produce for individual applications. The source of all the elevation data is captured in metadata for reference purposes. It is also hoped that as better data become available in the future, the GMTED2010 model will be updated.

Open-File Report↗

Archive of post-Hurricane Isabel coastal oblique aerial photographs collected during U.S. Geological Survey Field Activity 03CCH01 from Ocean City, Maryland, to Fort Caswell, North Carolina and Inland from Waynesboro to Redwood, Virginia, September 21 - 23, 2003

On September 21 - 23, 2003, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey along the Atlantic coast from Ocean City, Md., to Fort Caswell, N.C., and inland oblique aerial photographic survey from Waynesboro to Redwood, Va., aboard a Navajo Piper twin-engine airplane. The coastal survey was conducted at an altitude of 500 feet (ft) and approximately 1,000 ft offshore. For the inland photos, the aircraft tried to stay approximately 500 ft above the terrain. These coastal photos were used to document coastal changes like beach erosion and overwash caused by Hurricane Isabel, while the inland photos looked for potential landslides caused by heavy rains. The photos may also be used as baseline data for future coastal change analysis. The USGS and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) surveyed the impact zone of Hurricane Isabel to better understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation’s coasts to extreme storms (Morgan, 2009). This report serves as an archive of photographs collected during the September 21 - 23, 2003, post-Hurricane Isabel coastal and inland oblique aerial survey along with associated survey maps, KML files, navigation files, digital Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Refer to the Acronyms page for expansions of all acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, 03CCH01 tells us the data were collected in 2003 for the Coastal Change Hazards (CCH) study and the data were collected during the first field activity for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the ID number. The photographs provided here are Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) scanned images of the analog 35 millimeter (mm) color positive slides. The photograph locations are estimates of the location of the plane (see the Navigation page). The metadata values for photo creation time, GPS latitude, GPS longitude, GPS position (latitude and longitude), keywords, credit, artist, caption, copyright, and contact were added to each photograph's EXIF header using EXIFtool (Subino and others, 2012). Photographs can be opened directly with any JPEG-compatible image viewer by clicking on a thumbnail on the contact sheet, or, when viewing the Google Earth KML file, by clicking on the marker and then clicking on either the thumbnail or the link below the thumbnail. Nathaniel Plant (USGS - St. Petersburg, Fla.), and Ann Marie Ascough (formerly contracted at the USGS - St. Petersburg, Fla.) helped with the creation of KML files. To view the photos and survey maps, proceed to the Photos and Maps page.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia↗

Adaptation and response in drylands: A dryland research agenda and campaign strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth's land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

Global Change Biology↗

Preliminary report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector mine, California, earthquake

The M w 7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake occurred at 9:46 GMT on 16 October 1999. The event caused minimal damage because it was located in a remote, sparsely populated part of the Mojave Desert, approximately 47 miles east-southeast of Barstow, with epicentral coordinates 34.59°N 116.27°W and a hypocentral depth of 5 ± 3 km. Twelve foreshocks, M 1.9-3.8, preceded the mainshock during the previous twelve hours. All of these events were located close to the hypocenter of the mainshock. The Hector Mine earthquake occurred within the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). By virtue of its remote location, the societal impact of the Hector Mine earthquake was, fortunately, minimal in spite of the event's appreciable size. The ECSZ is characterized by high seismicity, a high tectonic strain rate, and a broad, distributed zone of north-northwest-trending faults (ECSZ; Figure 1 ; Dokka and Travis, 1990 ; Sauber et al., 1986 ; Sauber et al., 1994 ; Sieh et al., 1993 ). Data regarding the slip rates of faults within the ECSZ suggest that on the order of 15% of the Pacific-North American plate motion occurs along this zone ( Sauber et al., 1986 ; Wesnousky, 1986 ). Most of the faults in the ECSZ have low slip rates and long repeat times for major earthquakes, on the order of several thousands to tens of thousands of years. The occurrence of the Hector Mine earthquake within seven years and only about 30 km east of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake suggests that the closely spaced surface faults in the ECSZ are mechanically related. The Hector Mine event involved rupture on two previously mapped fault zones—the Bullion Fault and an unnamed, more northerly-trending fault that is informally referred to in this paper as the Lavic Lake Fault (Dibblee, 1966 , 1967a , b ). Traces of the Bullion Fault exhibit evidence of Holocene displacement and were zoned as active in 1988 under California's Mquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act ( Hart and Bryant, 1997 ). The pattern of rupture along more than one named fault was also observed from the 1992 Landers earthquake ( Hauksson et al., 1993 ; Sieh et al., 1994). Much of the fault zone that produced the Hector Mine earthquake had been buried by relatively young stream deposits, and the fault scarps in bedrock have a subdued morphology. It appears that these faults have not experienced significant offset for perhaps 10,000 years or more ( Hart, 1987 ). Planned future investigations will refine the age of the last event on these faults. The portion of the Lavic Lake Fault that ruptured between the northern end of the Bullion Mountains and Lavic Lake had not previously been mapped. However, our field investigations have identified ancient, subdued fault scarps along portions of the 1999 rupture zone in this area. It thus appears that the entire segment of the Lavic Lake Fault that was involved in the 1999 event had ruptured in the past. As is typical for most faults within the Eastern California Shear Zone, the rate of movement along the Lavic Lake Fault may be quite slow (<1 mm/yr) and should produce earthquakes only infrequently. This event is a reminder that faults that have ruptured in late Quaternary time, but that lack evidence of Holocene displacement, can still produce earthquakes in this low-slip-rate tectonic setting. Additionally, the Hector Mine earthquake is noteworthy for a couple of other reasons. First, it clearly produced triggered seismicity over much of southern California, from the rupture zone toward the south-southwest in particular. Second, as we will discuss, the event may provide new data and insight into recently developed paradigms concerning earthquake interactions and the role of static stress changes. Questions such as these will, of course, be the subject of extensive detailed analyses in years to come. Fortunately, the Hector Mine sequence will provide one of the best data sets obtained to date for a significant earthquake in the United States. Because it occurred when major upgrades to both the regional seismic network (TriNet) and the regional geodetic network (SCIGN) were well underway, the Earth science community will have abundant high-quality data with which to explore the important and interesting questions that have been raised. In this paper, we present and discuss the basic data and preliminary results from the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi 2 ), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi 2 ) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi 2 ) in the United States. We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations. Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections. The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable. The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community. This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sina↗

Contaminant baselines and sediment provenance along the Puget Sound Energy Transport Corridor, 2015

The transport of coal and oil can result in contaminated soil, water, and organisms from unintended releases. Trains carrying coal and crude oil regularly pass through Puget Sound, Washington, and an increase in the number of coal and oil trains is expected in the future. This study characterized levels of potentially toxic contaminants in sediment in September 2015: arsenic, metals, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at four sites with fine-grained sediment (Chuckanut Bay, Padilla Bay, Snohomish River Delta, Nisqually River Delta) adjacent to the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) rail line in the Puget Sound region. Arsenic (As) and metals levels were compared to those measured at a fifth site, urban Saltwater State Park, which was expected to show contaminants associated with urbanization but not rail transport of coal and oil because it is not adjacent to the BNSF rail line. Knowledge about current properties of soil and sediment is essential for quantifying impacts of spills and other releases, and for setting remediation or restoration targets. For the sampling effort and timing of this study, all five sites had fine sediment contents of cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) below minimal effects levels. Pb and Zn appeared to be urban sourced. Median As, chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), and nickel (Ni) levels were in the range where adverse biological effects would possibly occur; however, Cr and Ni were geologically sourced and unlikely to be bioavailable to organisms. As, Cu, and antimony (Sb) levels were highly correlated, an association that is characteristic of legacy smelting operations; however, total sediment contents of these three elements, along with Hg and As/Sb ratios, were near natural levels and could indicate river-borne inputs. Median total PAH concentrations were highest at Snohomish River Delta, but were below minimal effects levels at all sites. Diagnostic PAH ratios were indicative of PAHs sourced from petroleum combustion and coal/biomass burning, rather than from spilled petroleum or coal. Rare earth element patterns were distinct among watersheds with Cascade volcanoes, granitic rocks, or non-volcanic sediments, making them promising sediment provenance indicators. Knowledge about sediment sources and contaminant distributions could provide unique insights about sediment-bound contaminant sourcing, delivery, and dispersal in nearshore regions.

Washington↗

Role of future reef growth on morphological response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise

Coral reefs are widely recognised for providing a natural breakwater effect that modulates erosion and flooding hazards on low‐lying sedimentary reef islands. Increased water depth across reef platforms due sea‐level rise (SLR) can compromise this breakwater effect and enhance island exposure to these hazards, but reef accretion in response to SLR may positively contribute to island resilience. Morphodynamic studies suggest that reef islands can adjust to SLR by maintaining freeboard (island crest elevation above still water level) through overwash deposition and island accretion, but the impact of different future reef accretion trajectories on the morphological response of islands remain unknown. Here we show, using a process‐based morphodynamic model, that, although reef growth significantly affects wave transformation processes and island morphology, it does not lead to decreased coastal flooding and island inundation. According to the model, reef islands evolve during SLR by attuning their elevation to the maximum wave runup and islands fronted by a growing reef platform attain lower elevations than those without reef growth, but have similar overwash regimes. The mean overwash discharge Q over across the island crest plays a key role in the ability of islands to keep up with SLR and maintain freeboard, with a Q over value of O (10 l m ‐1 s ‐1 ) separating island construction from destruction. Islands, therefore, can grow vertically to keep up with SLR via flooding and overwash if specific forcing and sediment supply conditions are met, offering hope for uninhabited and sparely populated islands. However, this physical island response will negatively impact infrastructure and assets on developed islands.

Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface↗

Detectability of thermal signatures associated with active formation of ‘chaos terrain’ on Europa

A recent study by Schmidt et al. (2011) suggests that Thera Macula, one of the &ldquo;chaos regions&rdquo; on Europa, may be actively forming over a large liquid water lens. Such a process could conceivably produce a thermal anomaly detectable by a future Europa orbiter or flyby mission, allowing for a direct verification of this finding. Here, we present a set of models that quantitatively assess the surface and subsurface temperatures associated with an actively resurfacing chaos region using constraints from Thera Macula. The results of this numerical study suggest that the surface temperature over an active chaos region can be as high as &sim;200 K. However, low-resolution Galileo Photo-Polarimeter Radiometer (PPR) observations indicate temperatures below 120 K over Thera Macula. This suggests that Thera Macula is not currently active unless an insulating layer of at least a few centimeters in thickness is present, or activity is confined to small regions, reducing the overall intensity of the thermal signature. Alternatively, Thera may have been cooling for at least 10&ndash;100 yr and still contain a subsurface lake, which can take &sim;300,000 yr to crystallize. According to the present study, a more sensitive instrument capable of detecting anomalies &sim;5 K above ambient could detect activity at Thera Macula even if an insulating layer of &sim;50 cm is present.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Urban growth in American cities : glimpses of U.S. urbanization

The Earth's surface is changing rapidly. Changes are local, regional, national, and even global in scope. Some changes have natural causes, such as earthquakes or drought. Other changes, such as urban expansion, agricultural intensification, resource extraction, and water resources development, are examples of human-induced change that have significant impact upon people, the economy, and resources. The consequences that result from these changes are often dramatic and widespread (Buchanan, Acevedo, and Zirbes, 2002) It is the role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide useful and relevant scientific information both to the agencies within the Department of the Interior and to the Nation in general. In an effort to comply with this task, USGS scientists are assessing the status of, and the trends in, the Nation's land surface. This assessment provides useful information for regional and national land use decisionmaking. This knowledge can be used to deal with issues of significance to the Nation, such as quality-of-life, ecology of urban environments, ecosystem health, ecological integrity, water quality and quantity concerns, resource availability, vulnerability to natural hazards, safeguards to human health, air and land quality, and accessibility to scientific information. Results of these assessments can also be analyzed to reveal rates and trends in land use change. Results from urban growth studies provide a firm foundation for continuing research that explores the consequences of human modification of the landscape. The USGS seeks to illustrate and explain the spatial history of urban growth and corresponding land use change. Scientists are studying urban environments from a regional perspective and a time scale of decades to measure the changes that have occurred in order to help understand the impact of anticipated changes in the future. Within this booklet are pairs of images of selected urbanized regions from across the Nation. These image pairs illustrate the transformation that these areas have undergone over two decades. Specifically, they depict changes in the extent of urban land. Each change pair is composed of one image from the 1970s and one image from the 1990s. Accompanying each image pair is a brief historical geography of factors that helped facilitate major changes that have occurred since the founding of the main city and the consequences and challenges of regional urban growth. The goal of this publication is to provide an illustration of urban change that is easily understood by a broad audience. The images used throughout this booklet were generated from land cover data developed by the USGS. The data sources include the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System (GIRAS) for the 1970s images and the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) for the 1990s images. GIRAS digital maps are based on photointerpretations completed in the mid-1970s. The NLCD is a land cover dataset for the conterminous United States based on 1992 Landsat thematic mapper (TM) satellite imagery and supplemental data (fig. 1a and fig. 1b). The USGS distributes both of these land use and land cover digital datasets. The images were developed by using a geographic information system (GIS). The GIRAS and NLCD datasets were used to identify urban land within each region. In the final images all urban areas are shown in red. A shaded-relief map of each region was used to display the topographic context of the red polygon coverage. For all of these images, urban land is defined as areas transformed into a built-up environment for human use. It includes residential areas, commercial and industrial developments, transportation features, and institutions.

Circular↗

Geologic and hydrologic characterization and evaluation of the Basin and Range Province relative to the disposal of high-level radioactive waste: Part I, Introduction and guidelines

The U.S. Geological Survey's program for geologic and hydrologic evaluation of physiographic provinces to identify areas potentially suitable for locating repository sites for disposal of high-level nuclear wastes was announced to the Governors of the eight States in the Basin and Range Province on May 5, 1981. Representatives of Arizona, California, Idaho, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, and Utah, were invited to cooperate with the Federal Government in the evaluation process. Each Governor was requested to nominate an Earth scientist to represent the State in a province working group composed of State and U.S. Geological Survey representatives. This report, Part I of a three-part report, provides the background, introduction and scope of the study. This part also includes a discussion of geologic and hydrologic guidelines that will be used in the evaluation process and illustrates geohydrologic environments and the effect of individual factors in providing multiple natural barriers to radionuclide migration. Part II is a reconnaissance characterization of the geologic and hydrologic factors to be used in the initial screening of the Basin and Range Province. Part III will be the initial evaluation of the Province and will identify regions that appear suitable for further study. The plan for study of the Province includes a stepwise screening process by which successively smaller land units are considered in increasing detail. Each step involves characterization of the geology and hydrology and selection of subunits for more intensive characterization. Selection of subunits for further study is by evaluation of geologic and hydrologic conditions following a set of guidelines. By representation on the Province Working Group, the States participate in a consultation and review role in: (1) Establishing geologic and hydrologic guidelines, and (2) characterizing and evaluating the Province. The States also participate in compilation of geologic and hydrologic data used in characterizing the Province. The current (1983) needs for a high-level radioactive waste repository include: (1) Disposal in a mined repository; (2) retrievability of the waste for as much as 50 years; and (3) confidence of isolation of the waste from the accessible environment. Isolation of the waste needs to be assured using geologic and hydrologic conditions that: (1) Minimize risk of inadvertent future intrusions by man; (2) minimize the possibility of disturbance by processes that would expose the waste or increase its mobility; and (3) provide a system of natural barriers to the migration of waste by ground water. The guidelines adopted by the Province Working Group are designed to provide a standard with which these conditions can be compared. The guidelines can be grouped into four principal categories: (1) Potential host media, (2) ground-water conditions, (3) tectonic conditions, and. (4) occurrence of natural resources. Ideally the host medium constitutes the first natural barrier to migration of radionculides. The host medium ideally should be a rock type that prevents or retards dissolution and transport of radionuclides. Rocks in both the saturated and unsaturated zones may have desirable characteristics for host media. Rocks-other than the host-in the ground-water flow path from the repository ideally should be major barriers to radionuclide migration. Confining beds of low permeability might be present to retard the rate of flow between more permeable beds. Additionally, sorption of radionuclides by materials such as clays and zeolites in the flow path can further retard the flow of radionuclides by several orders of magnitude. Tectonic conditions in an area should not present a probable cause for exhumation or increased mobility of radioactive waste. Natural resources are a factor for consideration because of the problem of future human intrusion and exposure to radioactivity in the quest for minerals, oil, gas, water, and geothermal resources. The ultimate evaluation of the suitability of a geohydrologic environment for developing a mined repository needs to assess all geologic and hydrologic characteristics and their interaction in providing confidence that a geohydrologic environment will effectively isolate radionuclides from human access. Several hypothetical settings with typical geohydrologic conditions in the Basin and Range Province are used to illustrate the effect of multiple barriers in the isolation of radionuclides.

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Or↗

RestoreNet: An emerging restoration network reveals controls on seeding success across dryland ecosystems

Drylands are Earth's largest terrestrial biome and support one‐third of the global population. However, they are also highly vulnerable to land degradation. Despite widespread demand for dryland restoration and rehabilitation, little information is available to help land managers effectively re‐establish native perennial vegetation across drylands. RestoreNet is an emerging dryland restoration network that systematically tests revegetation techniques across environmental gradients. Using the RestoreNet experimental framework, we tested the effectiveness of restoration treatments (i.e. ConMod nurse plant structures, mulch, pits) that increase soil moisture and seed mixes with different climatic niches to achieve revegetation goals. Across sites, seedling recruitment was consistently influenced by treatment and seed mix type. Pit and mulch treatments increased total seedling density, with pits promoting the highest seeded species recruitment while limiting non‐native species establishment. Seeding increased total seedling density regardless of seed mix type, but cooler‐adapted seed mixes promoted greater seeded species density and resulted in lower density of unseeded (non‐native) species relative to warmer‐adapted mixes. Seedling recruitment was also controlled by the temporal and environmental context of restoration with the positive effect of high precipitation greatest in the weeks immediately following seeding. Above‐average precipitation during the study period across most of the sites may partially explain why the highest seeded species recruitment occurred in pit treatments and seed mixes with cooler, wetter niche requirements. Synthesis and applications . Results from the dryland restoration network, RestoreNet help to better understand variation in seeding and restoration treatment success across space and time in drylands. Relationships between restoration practices and environmental conditions in our study suggest the importance of anticipatory restoration strategies that forecast seasonal and sub‐seasonal weather conditions and select plant species with climate niche requirements appropriate for current and future climate conditions. This information is critical to land managers tasked with improving ecosystem conditions across degraded dryland regions.

Arizona↗