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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources

USGS2009

Nitrogen attenuation of terrestrial carbon cycle response to global environmental factors

Nitrogen cycle dynamics have the capacity to attenuate the magnitude of global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources driven by CO 2 fertilization and changes in climate. In this study, two versions of the terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycle components of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) are used to evaluate how variation in nitrogen availability influences terrestrial carbon sinks and sources in response to changes over the 20th century in global environmental factors including atmospheric CO 2 concentration, nitrogen inputs, temperature, precipitation and land use. The two versions of ISAM vary in their treatment of nitrogen availability: ISAM-NC has a terrestrial carbon cycle model coupled to a fully dynamic nitrogen cycle while ISAM-C has an identical carbon cycle model but nitrogen availability is always in sufficient supply. Overall, the two versions of the model estimate approximately the same amount of global mean carbon uptake over the 20th century. However, comparisons of results of ISAM-NC relative to ISAM-C reveal that nitrogen dynamics: (1) reduced the 1990s carbon sink associated with increasing atmospheric CO 2 by 0.53 PgC yr −1 (1 Pg = 1015g), (2) reduced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in temperature and precipitation of 0.34 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s, (3) an enhanced sink associated with nitrogen inputs by 0.26 PgC yr −1 , and (4) enhanced the 1990s carbon source associated with changes in land use by 0.08 PgC yr −1 in the 1990s. These effects of nitrogen limitation influenced the spatial distribution of the estimated exchange of CO 2 with greater sink activity in high latitudes associated with climate effects and a smaller sink of CO 2 in the southeastern United States caused by N limitation associated with both CO 2 fertilization and forest regrowth. These results indicate that the dynamics of nitrogen availability are important to consider in assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2022

Reducing uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes: A decision-path approach

Climate change will continue to be an important consideration for conservation practitioners. However, uncertainty in identifying appropriate management strategies, particularly for understudied species and regions, constrains the implementation of science-based solutions and adaptation strategies. Here, we share a decision-path approach to reduce uncertainty in climate change responses of inland fishes to inform conservation and adaptation planning. With the Fish and Climate Change database (FiCli), a comprehensive, online, public database of peer-reviewed literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fishes, users can identify relevant studies and associated management recommendations via geographic regions, response types (i.e., fish assemblage dynamics, demographic, distributional, evolutionary, phenological), fish taxa, and traits (e.g., thermal guilds, feeding type, parental care, habitat type) and use a suite of summary tools to make more informed decisions. For both data-rich and data-poor scenarios, we demonstrate that this approach can reduce uncertainty in understanding climate change responses. Using thermal sensitivity as an example, we also establish the utility of FiCli database to address other user-defined, management-relevant questions via supplementary analyses. This decision-path approach can be applied to rapid assessments, management decisions, and policy development and may serve as a model for other conservation decision-making processes.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2014

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N 2 O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2007

Spatial and temporal patterns of net primary productivity in the duration of 1981-2000 in Guangdong, China

The knowledge of net primary production (NPP) dynamics at regional scale will help to understand terrestrial carbon cycling, especially with respect to land use and global climate change. Guangdong province has high plant growth potential because of plenty of light, heat, and water resources in this region. Forest coverage increased significantly from less than 30% in the early l980s to approximately 60% in 2000 owing to the launching of the "Greening Guangdong in 10 years", a provincial afforestation and reforestation project started in 1985. Meanwhile, economy growth has been fast in Guangdong province during the past 20 years. Long-term spatial and temporal NPP dynamics in Guangdong province are not well-known. To fill this knowledge gap, the spatial and temporal patterns of annual NPP from 1981 to 2000, derived from the global production efficiency model (GLO-PEM), were analyzed in this study. NPP patterns were compared at three spatial scales (i. e. , province, region, and city) and among three major forest types (i. e. , broadleaf, coniferous, and mixed). The results showed that for the entire province annual NPP varied between (1360 ±431) and (1626 ± 471) g/(m^2•a), with a mean value of (1480 ±407)g/(m^2•a). NPP increased to the maximum value (1534 ±121 g/(m^2•a)) in late 1980s (1986~1990) while decreased in early 1990s (1991~1995), and then recovered slightly in late 1990s (1996~2000). NPP differed distinctly across geographic regions, with the highest in the southwest coastal region, followed by the southeast coastal region, and the lowest in the inner land region. The differences were probably caused by vegetation composition, heat and water resources, and the distribution of the cropland. NPP dynamics of 21 cities were divided into three types. NPP kept stable in 12 cities including Shaoguan, Qingyuan, and Meizhou etc. NPP increased in Chaozhou, Shanwei, Zhanjiang and Jieyang, and decreased significantly (p<0.05) in 5 cities (i. e. , Foshan, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai). The decrease of NPP in these 5 cites can partly be explained by land cover and land use changes (e. g. , urbanization) driven by the economy development in the Pearl River Delta. NPP varied among the three major forest types. The mixed forest had the highest NPP, followed by the broadleaf forest and the conifer forest. Long-term mean NPP were (1364 ± 390) g/(m^2•a), (1391 ± 372) g/(m^2•a), and (1704 ± 450) g/(m^2•a) in the conifer, the broadleaf, and the mixed forest, respectively.

Acta Ecologica Sinica↗

USGS2014

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Nonstructural leaf carbohydrates dynamics of Pinus edulis during drought-induced tree mortality reveal role for carbon metabolism in mortality mechanism

* Vegetation change is expected with global climate change, potentially altering ecosystem function and climate feedbacks. However, causes of plant mortality, which are central to vegetation change, are understudied, and physiological mechanisms remain unclear, particularly the roles of carbon metabolism and xylem function. * We report analysis of foliar nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) and associated physiology from a previous experiment where earlier drought-induced mortality of Pinus edulis at elevated temperatures was associated with greater cumulative respiration. Here, we predicted faster NSC decline for warmed trees than for ambient-temperature trees. * Foliar NSC in droughted trees declined by 30% through mortality and was lower than in watered controls. NSC decline resulted primarily from decreased sugar concentrations. Starch initially declined, and then increased above pre-drought concentrations before mortality. Although temperature did not affect NSC and sugar, starch concentrations ceased declining and increased earlier with higher temperatures. * Reduced foliar NSC during lethal drought indicates a carbon metabolism role in mortality mechanism. Although carbohydrates were not completely exhausted at mortality, temperature differences in starch accumulation timing suggest that carbon metabolism changes are associated with time to death. Drought mortality appears to be related to temperature-dependent carbon dynamics concurrent with increasing hydraulic stress in P. edulis and potentially other similar species.

New Phytologist↗

USGS2026

Temperature and precipitation source variability and glacial dynamics in the southwestern United States at Fish Lake, Utah, since late MIS 4

An improved understanding of hydroclimate response to natural climate forcings is needed to evaluate impacts of changing seasonal circulation patterns on current and future drought in the southwestern United States (‘the Southwest’). However, few terrestrial records from the Southwest preserve changes in moisture availability continuously prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼24.5 ka). Fish Lake, in the Upper Colorado River Basin, preserves a long (∼67 ka), continuous, high-resolution (∼3.3 cm/century) sedimentary record spanning from late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 to present. Here, we investigate the relative contributions of seasonal precipitation and moisture source using the hydrogen isotope value of the n -C 29 leaf wax alkane and changes in temperature using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). During the warm post glacial period (14 ka to present), a greater contribution of annual precipitation is sourced from the North American Monsoon (NAM) in response to declining winter insolation and rising greenhouse gases, weakening westerly storms and shifting them northward. MIS 3 (∼61 to 29 ka) is also influenced by NAM inputs, however, to a smaller magnitude than during the post glacial period when temperatures were warmer. However, stadial periods (MIS 2, 29 to 14.1 ka) show 2 H-enriched values, suggesting warm conditions and large contributions of NAM precipitation during the LGM, contradicting other proxies and regional records. The LGM is the only period in the record where glaciers are present in the catchment, thus we hypothesize glacial erosion reworked pre-LGM aged soil organic matter and biased the record during this time.

Utah↗

USGS2001

Temporal coherence of two alpine lake basins of the Colorado Front Range, USA

1. Knowledge of synchrony in trends is important to determining regional responses of lakes to disturbances such as atmospheric deposition and climate change. We explored the temporal coherence of physical and chemical characteristics of two series of mostly alpine lakes in nearby basins of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Using year-to-year variation over a 10-year period, we asked whether lakes more similar in exposure to the atmosphere be-haved more similarly than those with greater influence of catchment or in-lake processes. 2. The Green Lakes Valley and Loch Vale Watershed are steeply incised basins with strong altitudinal gradients. There are glaciers at the heads of each catchment. The eight lakes studied are small, shallow and typically ice-covered for more than half the year. Snowmelt is the dominant hydrological event each year, flushing about 70% of the annual discharge from each lake between April and mid-July. The lakes do not thermally stratify during the period of open water. Data from these lakes included surface water temper-ature, sulphate, nitrate, calcium, silica, bicarbonate alkalinity and conductivity. 3. Coherence was estimated by Pearson's correlation coefficient between lake pairs for each of the different variables. Despite close geographical proximity, there was not a strong direct signal from climatic or atmospheric conditions across all lakes in the study. Individual lake characteristics overwhelmed regional responses. Temporal coherence was higher for lakes within each basin than between basins and was highest for nearest neighbours. 4. Among the Green Lakes, conductivity, alkalinity and temperature were temporally coherent, suggesting that these lakes were sensitive to climate fluctuations. Water tem-perature is indicative of air temperature, and conductivity and alkalinity concentrations are indicative of dilution from the amount of precipitation flushed through by snowmelt. 5. In Loch Vale, calcium, conductivity, nitrate, sulphate and alkalinity were temporally coherent, while silica and temperature were not. This suggests that external influences are attenuated by internal catchment and lake processes in Loch Vale lakes. Calcium and sulphate are primarily weathering products, but sulphate derives both from deposition and from mineral weathering. Different proportions of snowmelt versus groundwater in different years could influence summer lake concentrations. Nitrate is elevated in lake waters from atmospheric deposition, but the internal dynamics of nitrate and silica may be controlled by lake food webs. Temperature is attenuated by inconsistently different climates across altitude and glacial meltwaters. 6. It appears that, while the lakes in the two basins are topographically close, geologically and morphologically similar, and often connected by streams, only some attributes are temporally coherent. Catchment and in-lake processes influenced temporal patterns, especially for temperature, alkalinity and silica. Montane lakes with high altitudinal gradients may be particularly prone to local controls compared to systems where coherence is more obvious.

Colorado↗

USGS2006

Climate scenarios for California

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). As part of the scenarios assessment, a statistical technique using properties of historical weather data was employed to correct model biases and “downscale” the global-model simulation of future climates to a finer level of detail, onto a grid of approximately 7 miles (12 kilometers), which is more suitable for impact studies at the scales needed by California decision makers. In current climate-change simulations, temperatures over California warm significantly during the twenty-first century, with temperature increases from approximately +3ºF (1.5ºC) in the lower emissions scenario (B1) within the less responsive model (PCM1) to +8ºF (4.5ºC) in the higher emissions scenario (A2) within the more responsive model (CM2.1). Three of the simulations (all except the low-emission scenario run of the low-response model) exhibit more warming in summer than in winter. In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.

California↗

USGS2009

Adaptation of farming practices could buffer effects of climate change on northern prairie wetlands

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America are vulnerable to climate change. Adaptation of farming practices to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change on wetland water levels is a potential watershed management option. We chose a modeling approach (WETSIM 3.2) to examine the effects of changes in climate and watershed cover on the water levels of a semi-permanent wetland in eastern South Dakota. Land-use practices simulated were unmanaged grassland, grassland managed with moderately heavy grazing, and cultivated crops. Climate scenarios were developed by adjusting the historical climate in combinations of 2??C and 4??C air temperature and ??10% precipitation. For these climate change scenarios, simulations of land use that produced water levels equal to or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate were judged to have mitigative potential against a drier climate. Water levels in wetlands surrounded by managed grasslands were significantly greater than those surrounded by unmanaged grassland. Management reduced both the proportion of years the wetland went dry and the frequency of dry periods, producing the most dynamic vegetation cycle for this modeled wetland. Both cultivated crops and managed grassland achieved water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 2??C rise in air temperature, and the 2??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenarios. Managed grassland also produced water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 4??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenario. Although these modeling results stand as hypotheses, they indicate that amelioration potential exists for a change in climate up to an increase of 2??C or 4??C with a concomitant 10% increase in precipitation. Few empirical data exist to verify the results of such land-use simulations; however, adaptation of farming practices is one possible mitigation avenue available for prairie wetlands. ?? 2009, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Wetlands↗

USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2007

Climate Change Research at USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)

Research and development projects at EROS apply unique resources to support the USGS mission of developing understanding, monitoring, and modeling of climate variability and change and their human, physical, and biological impacts. Remote sensing resources, both new and archived, form the core of our ability to determine changes in the state or condition of the Earth’s surface and its dynamic landscape and ecosystem processes. This rich resource provides powerful biophysical information for local to global areas. Archival data form the basis for assessing human and climate impacts on the land surface, trends of land use, and an understanding of climate and management impacts. Biophysical information from satellite data is assimilated into quantitative models that allow all disciplines of the USGS to understand impacts on ecosystem processes. Major processes and problems we address include: carbon fluxes, hydrological processes, albedo changes and regional climates, mangroves and wetland protection of coastal environments, natural and manmade hazards (e.g., fire and drought), ecosystem change and succession, land use and land cover change, and more. The integration of remote sensing, modeling, and multidisciplinary approaches fosters international scientific leadership across all disciplines for the USGS.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2018

Recent advances in environmental flows science and water management—Innovation in the Anthropocene

The implementation of environmental flow regimes offers a promising means to protect and restore riverine, wetland and estuarine ecosystems, their critical environmental services and cultural/societal values. This Special Issue expands the scope of environmental flows and water science in theory and practice, offering 20 papers from academics, agency researchers and non‐governmental organisations, each with fresh perspectives on the science and management of environmental water allocations. Contributions confront the grand challenge for environmental flows and water management in the Anthropocene—the urgent need for innovations that will help to sustain the innate resilience of social–ecological systems under dynamic and uncertain environmental and societal futures. Basin‐scale and regional assessments of flow requirements mark a necessary advance in environmental water science in the face of rapid changes in water‐resource management activities worldwide (e.g. increases in dams, diversions, retention and reuse). Techniques for regional‐scale hydrological and ecohydrological modelling support ecological risk assessment and identification of priority flow management and river restoration actions. Changing flood–drought cycles, long‐term climatic shifts and associated effects on hydrological, thermal and water quality regimes add enormous uncertainty to the prediction of future ecological outcomes, regardless of environmental water allocations. An improved capacity to predict the trajectories of ecological change in rivers degraded by legacies of past impact interacting with current conditions and future climate change is essential. Otherwise, we risk unrealistic expectations from restoration of river and estuarine flow regimes. A more robust, dynamic and predictive approach to environmental water science is emerging. It encourages the measurement of process rates (e.g. birth rate, colonisation rate) and species traits (e.g. physiological requirements, morphological adaptations) as well as ecosystem states (e.g. species richness, assemblage structure), as the variables representing ecological responses to flow variability and environmental water allocations. Another necessary development is the incorporation of other environmental variables such as water temperature and sedimentary processes in flow–ecological response models. Based on contributions to this Special Issue, several recent compilations and the wider literature, we identify six major scientific challenges for further exploration, and seven themes for advancing the management of environmental water. We see the emerging frontier of environmental flows and water science as urgent and challenging, with numerous opportunities for reinvigorated science and methodological innovation in the expanding enterprise of environmental water linked to ecological sustainability and social well‐being.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2018

The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS)—Development and application of a systems model for prairie-pothole wetlands

The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeability glacial till and a landscape dotted with millions of depressions known today as prairie potholes. The wetlands that subsequently formed in these depressions, prairie-pothole wetlands, provide critical migratory-bird habitat and support dynamic aquatic communities. Extensive grasslands and productive agricultural systems surround these wetland ecosystems. In prairie-pothole wetlands, the compositions of plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate communities are highly dependent on hydrogeochemical conditions. Regional climate shifts between wet and dry periods affect the length of time that wetlands contain ponded surface water and the chemistry of that ponded water. Land-use change can exacerbate or reduce the effects of climate on wetland hydrology and water chemistry. A mechanistic understanding of the relation among climate, land use, hydrology, chemistry, and biota in prairie-pothole wetlands is needed to better understand the complex, and often interacting, effects of climate and land use on prairie-pothole wetland systems and to facilitate climate and land-use change adaptation efforts. The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model was developed to address this need. The model simulates water-surface elevation dynamics in prairie-pothole wetlands and quantifies changes in salinity. The PHyLiSS model is unique among other wetland models because it accommodates differing sizes and morphometries of wetland basins, is not dependent on a priori designations of wetland class, and allows for functional changes associated with dynamic shifts in ecohydrological states. The PHyLiSS model also has the capability to simulate wetland salinity, and potential future iterations will also simulate the effects of changing hydrology and geochemical conditions on biota. This report documents the development of the hydrological and geochemical components of the PHyLiSS model and provides example applications.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Study region Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes. Study focus Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent. New hydrological insights for the region Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

USGS2023

Effect of straying, reproductive strategies, and ocean distribution on the structure of American shad populations

The use of species distribution models has proliferated, providing insights for sustainable management of migratory species in a globally changing environment. However, many of these models are based on statistical relationships developed from historical conditions that may not perform well under changing or even analogous conditions caused by climate change. In this paper, we used a mechanistic species distribution model called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics for Diadromous Fish Distribution) to examine the integrated dynamics of American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) populations across their native range along the Eastern U.S. coast, where the species demonstrates latitudinal variations in life histories and reproductive strategies. The initial design of the model was adapted to incorporate region-specific parameterization to fit the species ecology. Then, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the influences of uncertain processes regarding American shad distribution at sea, straying and reproduction on key characteristics of the species distribution. The sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the Allee effect (i.e., “depensatory” process) and the homing rate (i.e., fidelity to the breeding sites) on the probability of presence and abundances among catchments and metapopulations estimated by the model. Contrary to the homing rate, the distance of straying did not change the estimated number of metapopulations or abundances. Homing strength, however, was quite influential. The integration of complex migration patterns during the marine phase (i.e., wintering and summering offshore areas) provided more likely estimates of the species' overall distribution. Overall, our study illustrated the utility of incorporating factors governing the large-scale distribution of migratory species to improve local management.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2014

Characterizing recent and projecting future potential patterns of mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

The recent widespread mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains presents an opportunity to investigate the relative influence of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical drivers that have shaped the spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to quantify the landscape-level drivers that explained the dynamic patterns of MPB mortality, and simulate areas with future potential MPB mortality under projected climate-change scenarios in Grand County, Colorado, USA. The outbreak patterns of MPB were characterized by analysis of a decade-long Landsat time-series stack, aided by automatic attribution of change detected by the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery algorithm (LandTrendr). The annual area of new MPB mortality was then related to a suite of anthropogenic, biologic, and physical predictor variables under a general linear model (GLM) framework. Data from years 2001–2005 were used to train the model and data from years 2006–2011 were retained for validation. After stepwise removal of non-significant predictors, the remaining predictors in the GLM indicated that neighborhood mortality, winter mean temperature anomaly, and residential housing density were positively associated with MPB mortality, whereas summer precipitation was negatively related. The final model had an average area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic plot value of 0.72 in predicting the annual area of new mortality for the independent validation years, and the mean deviation from the base maps in the MPB mortality areal estimates was around 5%. The extent of MPB mortality will likely expand under two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) in Grand County, which implies that the impacts of MPB outbreaks on vegetation composition and structure, and ecosystem functioning are likely to increase in the future.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

HyWaves: Hybrid downscaling of multimodal wave spectra to nearshore areas

Long-term and accurate wave hindcast databases are often required in different coastal engineering projects. The assessment of the nearshore wave climate is often accomplished by using downscaling techniques to translate offshore waves to coastal areas. However, dynamical downscaling approaches may incur huge computational cost. Additionally, the common use of bulk parameterizations are often not accurate for multidimensional waves. To overcome these limitations, we present a hybrid downscaling approach that combines mathematical algorithms (statistical downscaling) and numerical modeling (dynamical downscaling) over the individual spectral partitions. Every wave partition is downscaled and aggregated afterward by using principles of wave linear theory. By assuming linearity in the propagation of the wave celerity, the application of the method is limited from offshore to intermediate water depths. In addition, the method proposed uses a technique to simplify the spectral boundary conditions in complex domains. The methodology has been applied and validated in the island states of Samoa, American Samoa, Majuro, and Kwajalein, showing good skill at reproducing the spectral hourly time series of significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction. Moreover, an accurate representation of the observed energy spectrum was achieved. This study provides insight into the numerical approximation of the combined sea-swell states while improving the quality of fast spectral forecasting and early warning systems.

Ocean Modeling↗