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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Climatic aridity shapes post-fire interactions between Ceanothus spp. and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) across the Klamath Mountains

Climate change is leading to increased drought intensity and fire frequency, creating early-successional landscapes with novel disturbance–recovery dynamics. In the Klamath Mountains of northwestern California and southwestern Oregon, early-successional interactions between nitrogen (N)-fixing shrubs ( Ceanothus spp.) and long-lived conifers (Douglas-fir) are especially important determinants of forest development. We sampled post-fire vegetation and soil biogeochemistry in 57 plots along gradients of time since fire (7–28 years) and climatic water deficit (aridity). We found that Ceanothus biomass increased, and Douglas-fir biomass decreased with increasing aridity. High aridity and Ceanothus biomass interacted with lower soil C:N more than either factor alone. Ceanothus biomass was initially high after fire and declined with time, suggesting a large initial pulse of N-fixation that could enhance N availability for establishing Douglas-fir. We conclude that future increases in aridity and wildfire frequency will likely limit post-fire Douglas-fir establishment, though Ceanothus may ameliorate some of these impacts through benefits to microclimate and soils. Results from this study contribute to our understanding of the effects of climate change and wildfires on interspecific interactions and forest dynamics. Management seeking to accelerate forest recovery after high-severity fire should emphasize early-successional conifer establishment while maintaining N-fixing shrubs to enhance soil fertility.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2020

Building loss in WUI disasters: Evaluating the core components of the wildland-urban interface definition

Accurate maps of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are critical for the development of effective land management policies, conducting risk assessments, and the mitigation of wildfire risk. Most WUI maps identify areas at risk from wildfire by overlaying coarse-scale housing data with land cover or vegetation data. However, it is unclear how well the current WUI mapping methods capture the patterns of building loss. We quantified the building loss in WUI disasters, and then compared how well census-based and point-based WUI maps captured the building loss. We examined the building loss in both WUI and non-WUI land-use types, and in relation to the core components of the United States Federal Register WUI definition: housing density, vegetation cover, and proximity to large patches of wildland vegetation. We used building location data from 70 large fires in the conterminous United States, which cumulatively destroyed 54,000 buildings from 2000 through to 2018. We found that: (1) 86% and 97% of the building loss occurred in areas designated as WUI using the census-based and point-based methods, respectively; (2) 95% and 100% of all of the losses occurred within 100 m and 850 m of wildland vegetation, respectively; and (3) WUI components were the most predictive of building loss when measured at fine scales.

Fire↗

USGS2020

Potential underestimation of satellite fire radiative power retrievals over gas flares and wildland fires

Fire Radiative Power (FRP) is related to fire combustion rates and is used to quantify the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. FRP over gas flares and wildfires can be retrieved remotely using satellites that observe in shortwave infrared (SWIR) to middle infrared (MIR) wavelengths. Heritage techniques to retrieve FRP developed for wildland fires using the MIR 4 μm radiances have been adapted for the hotter burning gas flares using the SWIR 2 μm observations. Effects of atmosphere, including smoke and aerosols, are assumed to be minimal in these algorithms because of the use of longer than visual wavelengths. Here we use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Landsat 8 observations acquired before and during emergency oil and gas flaring in eastern Saudi Arabia to show that dark, sooty smoke affects both 4 μm and 2 μm observations. While the 2 μm observations used to retrieve gas FRP may be reliable during clear atmospheric conditions, performance is severely impacted by dark smoke. Global remote sensing-based inventories of wildfire and gas flaring need to consider the possibility that soot and dark smoke can potentially lead to an underestimation of FRP over fires.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2021

Impacts of climate changes and amplified natural disturbance on global ecosystems

Natural disturbances maintain biological diversity and landscape heterogeneity and initiate ecosystem renewal and reorganization. However, the severity, frequency, and extent of many disturbances have increased substantially in recent decades as the result of anthropogenic climate change. Disturbances can be discrete, short-duration events, such as wildfires or hurricanes, or can exert persistent, cumulative stresses on an ecosystem (for example, ongoing warming of ocean or land surface temperatures). Landscape and ecosystem impacts can occur from a single disturbance, from several disturbances acting independently, or from the interactions of multiple, linked disturbances. Key, climate-related disturbances affecting global biomes and ecosystems include shifting temperature and hydrologic regimes (for example, warming surface temperatures and increasing aridity), increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as heatwaves, severe droughts, storms, and hurricanes, warming-induced permafrost thaw, and heightened wildfire activity and insect-caused tree mortality. For ecosystems and landscapes, the consequences of climate-amplified disturbance include forced poleward and upward movement of plant and animal species, widespread tree mortality and reduced forest productivity, changes in plant community structure and species distributions, reduced biodiversity, increased erosion, debris flows, wetland dynamism, declining sea ice extent, more frequent storm-driven tides and saltwater intrusion, and increased landscape flammability.

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (~500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (~5.3 kg C m −2 ), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (~0.1 kg C m −2 ). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ~3.3 kg C m −2 , whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1–2.2 kg C m −2 ). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ~6.1 kg C m −2 , whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ~5.6 kg C m −2 . A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ~5.4 kg C m −2 . Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2017

In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems

Characterization of permafrost, particularly warm and near-surface permafrost which can contain significant liquid water, is critical to understanding complex interrelationships with climate change, ecosystems, and disturbances such as wildfires. Understanding the vulnerability and resilience of permafrost requires an interdisciplinary approach, relying on (for example) geophysical investigations, ecological characterization, direct observations, remote sensing, and more. As part of a multi-year investigation into the impacts of wildfires to permafrost, we have collected in situ measurements of the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) response of active layer and permafrost in a variety of soil conditions, types, and saturations. In this paper, we summarize the NMR data and present quantitative relationships between active layer and permafrost liquid water content and pore sizes. Through statistical analyses and synthetic freezing simulations, we also demonstrate that borehole NMR can image the nucleation of ice within soil pore spaces.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit recovery planning through structured decision making

The endangered Columbia Basin pygmy rabbit (CBPR) faces multiple threats, particularly increasing risk of larger and more intense wildfires due to climate change, emerging disease, and sagebrush habitat loss due to agriculture and development. Through the use of conservation breeding, the CBPR wild population grew from a low of 16 individuals captured in 2001 to over 100 individuals in two subpopulations in 2024. However, these subpopulations are geographically proximate, with potential risk that both subpopulations could be affected by a single wildfire or disease event. Additionally, a succession of setbacks in the breeding program has prompted a natural re-evaluation point for the CBPR conservation program. We undertook a structured decision-making (SDM) process with participants from both Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to develop a strategy that is sustainable and implementable for guiding management in the coming decades across the range of the CBPR, taking into account changing conditions and updated information. A population model that incorporated both demographic and high impact event uncertainties was developed to test how alternative strategies – defined by conservation breeding program, vaccination, and translocation components – affect CBPR population growth and cost objectives. Based on analysis of the model results, we identified the following actions that appear to have the greatest potential to allow WDFW and USFWS to meet their conservation objectives for CBPR: Continue conservation breeding program, and possibly expand to include an island subpopulation (an isolated, unfenced area that can serve as a source for rabbits while requiring fewer management inputs) Continue Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV2) annual vaccinations in both breeding and wild populations When juveniles are available for translocation, prioritize recovery areas that are in the establishing phase In addition, while not analyzed explicitly in the model, discussions during the SDM process led to the identification of the following actions, which the group considered to have potential to benefit the CBPR either directly or indirectly: Increase the amount of suitable habitat available to pygmy rabbits Increase protections for existing and potential recovery areas Design future monitoring to better estimate survival and reproduction, with an emphasis on understanding how these vital rates vary between wild and semi-captive individuals, between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and as a function of habitat factors

BioRxiv↗

USGS2018

Southeast

The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. While some climate change impacts, such as sea level rise and extreme downpours, are being acutely felt now, others, like increasing exposure to dangerous high temperatures, humidity, and new local diseases, are expected to become more significant in the coming decades. While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available to them, and economic situations. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Trends towards a more urbanized and denser Southeast are expected to continue, creating new climate vulnerabilities. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors, and the major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Infrastructure related to drinking water and wastewater treatment also has the potential to be compromised by climate-related events. Increases in extreme rainfall events and high tide coastal floods due to future climate change will impact the quality of life of permanent residents as well as tourists visiting the low-lying and coastal regions of the Southeast. Sea level rise is contributing to increased coastal flooding in the Southeast, and high tide flooding already poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the region. There have been numerous instances of intense rainfall events that have had devastating impacts on inland communities in recent years. The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. Reductions in the frequency and intensity of cold winter temperature extremes are already allowing tropical and subtropical species to move northward and replace more temperate species. Warmer winter temperatures are also expected to facilitate the northward movement of problematic invasive species, which could transform natural systems north of their current distribution. In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices. Many in rural communities are maintaining connections to traditional livelihoods and relying on natural resources that are inherently vulnerable to climate changes. Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impacting—and are projected to further impact—rural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges to human health. Increases in temperatures, water stress , freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems. Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5) suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Already poor regions, including those found in the Southeast, are expected to continue incurring greater losses than elsewhere in the United States.

Report↗

USGS2003

Fire in the west: It's no simple story

As scientists who have long grappled with the complexities of fire history in the West, we take issue with Ray Ring’s overreaching storyline that the recent spate of stand-replacing forest fires reflects wholly natural processes operating across all Western landscapes (HCN, 5/26/03: A losing battle). Ring further asserts that the main driver of recent crown fires must be climatic change, and not the extraordinary fuel accumulations of the 20th century. If we want to cope with huge wildfires over the long term, Ring concludes, we should focus less on thinning our forests and more on cutting greenhouse gas emissions to curtail global warming. We appreciate that Ring’s simple storyline was meant to be provocative. We insist, however, that the circumstances driving Western wildfires are actually quite varied and complex, involving interactions between climate and fuels.

High Country News↗

USGS2010

Observations of drainage network change in a recently burned watershed using terrestrial laser scanning

Wildfire enhances the geomorphic response of a watershed to precipitation events, effectively altering the form of the hillslope and channel drainage network. Typically, drainage networks expand following rainfall on a recently burned watershed. Expansion of drainage networks following wildfire increases in erosion and sediment transport rates, and the probability of flash-flooding and debris-flows at downstream locations. Observations of the response of hillslope and channel drainage to individual precipitation events are vital to unraveling the dynamics of erosion processes in recently burned watersheds. Here, we apply terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) methods to produce digital terrain models (DTMs) of a recently burned watershed at an unprecedented spatial resolution. The DTM data aid the quantification of changes in the hillslope and channel drainage networks at several spatial scales. Two TLS surveys were conducted, one survey between 28-30 September 2008 to document pre-rainfall conditions, and one between 18-21 December 2008, three days after 52 mm of rainfall over a period of 22 hours. A Leica Geosystems ScanStation 2 TLS was used to generate 1 cm resolution DTMs, from which the hillslope and channel drainage networks were derived. The location and magnitude of erosion and deposition for each pixel within the basin was determined by calculating the topographic differences between DTMs. Changes in the drainage network morphology were identified through the analysis of bifurcation ratio, drainage density (including rills), rill length, horizontal migration of rills, width-depth ratios and upstream migration of knickpoints. Comparisons of these measures were made between morphologically distinct sub-basins within the study area, and between surveys. Analyses of bifurcation ratios, and measures of rill position and gullyhead migration indicate an expansion of the rill network and upstream migration of knickpoints. These results suggest that expansion of the drainage network is a function of boundary conditions that exist at multiple spatial scales, including depth to bedrock, surface roughness, and contributing area. Additional predictive capability at this spatial and temporal resolution is going to require a physically-based model capable of combining high-resolution topographic changes and process information from in-situ measurements of flow dynamics.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2007

Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

The factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability has been examined. These factors are the following: forest legacies including logging, mining, agriculture, grazing, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire, and pollution; climate change and stream flow; altered disturbances such as frequency intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks as well as flood control; lastly, invasive species like forest pests and pathogens. An integrated approach quantifying the current and past condition trends can be combined with spatial and temporal modeling to develop future change in forest structures and water supply. The key is a combination of geographic information system technologies with climate and land use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.

Unasylva↗

USGS2010

Effectiveness of post-fire seeding in desert tortoise Critical Habitat following the 2005 Southern Nevada Fire Complex

In June 2005, lightning strikes ignited multiple wildfires in southern Nevada. The Southern Nevada Fire Complex burned more than 32,000 acres of designated desert tortoise Critical Habitat and an additional 403,000 acres of Mojave Desert habitat characterized as potentially suitable for the tortoise. Mortalities of desert tortoises were observed after the fires, but altered habitat is likely to prolong and magnify the impacts of wildfire on desert tortoise populations. To accelerate the re-establishment of plants commonly used by tortoises for food and shelter, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) distributed seeds of native annual and perennial species in burned areas within desert tortoise Critical Habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established monitoring plots to evaluate broadcast seeding as a means to restore habitat and tortoise activity compared with natural recovery. Within the standard three-year Emergency and Stabilization Response (ESR) monitoring timeline, seeding augmented perennial seed banks by four to six-fold within a year of seed applications compared with unseeded areas. By the end of the three-year monitoring period, seedling densities of seeded perennial species were 33% higher in seeded areas than in unseeded areas, particularly for the disturbance-adapted desert globemallow (Sphaeralcea ambigua) and desert marigold (Baileya multiradiata). Seeded annuals, in contrast, did not increase significantly in seed banks or biomass production, likely due to low seeding rates of these species. Production of non-native annuals that helped carry the fires was not reduced by seeding efforts but instead was strongly correlated with site-specific rainfall, as were native annual species. The short-term vegetation changes measured in seeded areas were not yet associated with a return of tortoise activity to unburned levels. By focusing on a combination of native species that can withstand disturbance conditions, including species that are found in adjacent unburned areas, and increasing seeding rates, broadcast seeding has strong potential to provide herbaceous plants for forage and long-term perennial plant cover to support tortoise recovery in burned habitats.

Nevada↗

USGS1990

International decade for natural disaster reduction

Throughout history, humanity has found itself in conflict with naturally occurring events of geologic, hydrologic, and atmospheric origin. this conflict has been demonstrated repeatedly when people build urban centers at the water's edge, in or near active fault systems capable of generating earthquakes, on steep slopes, near active volcanoes, or at the urban-wilderness interface prone to wildfires. Naturally occurring, recurrent events such as floods, windstorms, tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires have tested human-engineered works many times and have often found them unable to withstand the forces generated by the event. In the past 20 years, for example, events like these throughout the world have claimed more than 2.8 million lives and adversely affected 820 million people; single disasters have caused economic losses of billions of dollars. Industrialized countries like the United States and Japan have been able to absorb the socioeconomic losses of past natural disasters, but the economics of many developing countries have been devastated by losses equal to a large percentage of their gross national product. Furthermore, the magnitude of the losses is increasing at a rapid rate as the building wealth of nations is expanded to meet the needs of rapidly increasing population, often without adequate consideration of the potential threat posed by the recurrent natural hazards and without implementing effective loss-reduction measures because of lack of knowledge or lack of technical capability.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

USGS2007

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

California Geographer↗

USGS2019

A 4000-year history of debris flows in north-central Washington State, U.S.A.: Preliminary results from trenching and surficial geologic mapping at the Pope Creek fan

Long-term records of the magnitude and frequency of debris flows on fans are rare, but such records provide critical information needed for debris-flow hazard and risk assessments. This study explores the history of debris flows on a fan with seasonally inhabited cabins at Pope Creek along the Entiat River about 48 km upstream from the town of Entiat, Washington. Motivation for this study was provided by the Duncan Fire, a wildfire which burned the Pope Creek basin in 2014 and resulted in debris flows and water-dominated floods on the fan between August 2014 and October 2016. We excavated and mapped seven 6-m long (2.4 m deep) trenches, mapped deposits on the surface of the fan, and constrained the ages of deposits using radiocarbon dating and the computer program OxCal. Preliminary results indicate that there have been at least 10 debris-flow events (DFEs) since 4000 cal yr BP. The mean recurrence interval between events was 433 +/-44 years, but intervals range from 724 to 20 years. The four most recent events have the shortest recurrence intervals. The largest event had an estimated sediment volume of 97,000 m3 and occurred at about 285 cal yr BP (1665 AD) during the Little Ice Age. The most recent debris-flow event that was triggered by rainstorms following the Duncan Fire was about 8x smaller than the largest event. These results may indicate that the largest DFE was triggered by an exceptional meteorological event that occurred during a cool, wet time, and that smaller DFEs were triggered by less exceptional meteorological events that occurred following wildfires.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Patterns of primary production and ecological drought in Yellowstone

Introduction: Photosynthesis converts sunlight into stored energy in millions of leaves, flowers and seeds that maintain the web of life in Yellowstone. This transformation of energy fixes carbon, supplies organic matter to soils, and can become fuel for wildfire. As the first link of the food chain, new plant biomass is called primary production and provides energy to consumers, including wildlife. While Yellowstone is a mountain environment with deep winter snowpack, the park can get very dry in some years as evidenced by massive wildfires in 1988 and 2016. Droughts like these not only contribute to fire potential, but they affect primary production, the food chain and likely will play an increasingly important role in transforming vegetation structure and composition in the future. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought have been assessed quantitatively for many years, but key indicators of drought in wildland ecosystems have not been formally defined until recently (Crausbay et al., 2017). One promising new method to do this is by measuring how vegetation responds to negative effects of drought, and positive effects of favorable conditions that offset negative effects of drought. The balance of drought stress and growth has important implications for future vegetation condition as the climate of Yellowstone changes. Monitoring primary production, and predicting future vegetation changes are needed to provide a comprehensive view of park health and anticipate future ecosystem changes (Crabtree et al. 2009, Nemani et al. 2009). Although an important indicator of ecosystem condition, primary production can be time and resource-intensive to monitor in wildland settings using traditional ground-based methods such as clipping and weighing. Fortunately, ground-based methods can be complemented and enhanced by monitoring primary production with satellite imagery. Measurements of solar radiation reflectance in visible and near infra-red wavelengths can indicate primary production at frequent weekly intervals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on satellites operated by NASA. The Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) uses this information to track changes in primary production across Yellowstone over time. They link these measurements to vegetation types, soils, and climate to understand where and when changes in production have occurred and may occur in the future.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2016

Fire and drought

Historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire have been well documented in much of North America, with forest fire occurrence and area burned clearly increasing in response to drought. Drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, and fire weather) to affect fire intensity and severity. Fire regime characteristics (area, frequency, severity) are the product of many individual fires, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important. It is worth noting, however, that the factors controlling fire events and fire regimes are complex and extend beyond drought and climate alone, and so fire regimes and wildfires are affected by other variables from local-to-global scales. Fire history evidence from diverse climate regimes and forest ecosystems suggests that North American forest fire regimes were moderately to strongly controlled by climate prior to Euro-American settlement and subsequent fire exclusion and fire suppression (Flatley and others 2013, Hessl and others 2004, Heyerdahl and others 2002, Heyerdahl and others 2008, Swetnam 1990, Swetnam and Betancourt 1998, Weisberg and Swanson 2003). These presettlement fire histories indicate a relationship between low precipitation anomalies and widespread fire activity, especially in the Western United States. This is consistent with a regional depletion of soil and atmospheric moisture, which leads to low moisture in foliage and surface fuels and ultimately to the potential for widespread fire (Swetnam and Betancourt 1998). Some fire histories in the American Southwest also demonstrate a lagged relationship with above-average antecedent precipitation (Swetnam and Betancourt 1998) and/or cooler temperatures (Veblen and others 2000) in the year(s) prior to years of widespread fire. Most of these records are derived from fire-scarred trees that survived fire events and thus are primarily indicative of low- or mixedseverity fire regimes, although some work has focused also on evidence from high-severity fire regimes (Heyerdahl and others 2002).

Book chapter↗

USGS2026

Helping California get ready for when the mud hits the fan

With frequent wildfires, powerful rainstorms, steep terrain, and dense population, California is particularly vulnerable to postfire hazards like flooding and debris flow. Major postfire flooding and debris-flow events can be more costly than the fire itself, causing dozens of fatalities and widespread damage (Chawner, 1934; Lancaster et al., 2021). Smaller events occur nearly every year in California and can locally damage structures and roads, affect water quality and storage, and result in injury or loss of life (e.g., Dow et al., 2024; Rodriguez, 2025; Swanson et al., 2024; Figure 1). To mitigate these threats, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed tools to assist local, state, and federal agencies in rapidly assessing postfire debris-flow risk across California’s diverse geology and geography. This article summarizes that effort and describes ongoing work by the USGS and partners to advance these methods and help California better prepare for future wildfires.

Caliornia↗