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USGS2020

The recurrence interval of post-fire debris-flow generating rainfall in the southwestern United States

In the southwestern United States, post-fire debris flows commonly initiate during short bursts of intense rainfall. To date, the frequency of the rainfall rates has not been quantified. Here, we combine an existing database of debris-flow occurrences and corresponding peak storm intensities with a geospatial library of rainfall recurrence interval (RI) information and climate type to determine the distribution of the estimated frequencies of the rainfall associated with 316 observed post-fire debris flows in the southwestern United States. Our results indicate that a majority (77%) of the observed debris flows were triggered by rainfall intensities with RI less than 2 years. Climatic and geographic differences in RI were evident in our analysis. Debris flows in most of the analyzed climates within California, Colorado, and New Mexico were primarily associated with 1-year or less RI intensities, whereas debris flows in arid portions of Arizona, Colorado, and Utah tended to be generated during storms greater than 2-year RI. Event consequence, as defined by the impact on downstream communities and infrastructure, was not directly related to RI, as very destructive debris flows were initiated at a wide range of RI intensities. Our results highlight that post-fire debris-flow initiation can be expected during common rainstorms in the southwestern United States, therefore emergency management plans and risk mitigation efforts must focus on both extreme and frequent rainstorms.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2019

Life-history variation of two inland salmonids revealed through otolith microchemistry analysis

Increasingly, otolith microchemistry analysis is used as a tool to trace fish migrations, especially migrations of diadromous fishes. Yet, few studies have used otolith microchemistry to trace migrations in small inland watersheds, leaving major knowledge gaps in our understanding of inland fish spatial ecology. Here, we evaluate the use of tributary habitat for spawning and describe and compare fluvial brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) natal origin distribution, time spent in natal streams, and spawning site fidelity. 63% of rainbow trout and 57% of brown trout migrated after hatching. Brown trout showed greater variation in time spent in natal tributaries, suggesting that individuals are temporally distributing risk among offspring. By contrast, rainbow trout showed greater variation in natal origin, suggesting that individuals are spatially distributing risk among offspring. Our results indicate there is high inter- and intraspecific migration variation in inland salmonid populations, which may be linked to access to a mosaic of spawning and rearing habitat types.

Colorado, Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes Basin: A report on sediment, water, and fish tissue chemistry collected in 2010-2012

Despite being detected at low levels in surface waters and sediments across the United States, contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes Basin are not well characterized in terms of spatial and temporal occurrence. Additionally, although the detrimental effects of exposure to CECs on fish and wildlife have been documented for many CECs in laboratory studies, we do not adequately understand the implications of the presence of CECs in the environment. Based on limited studies using current environmentally relevant concentrations of chemicals, however, risks to fish and wildlife are evident. As a result, there is an increasing urgency to address data gaps that are vital to resource management decisions. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, is leading a Great Lakes Basin-wide evaluation of CECs (CEC Project) with the objectives to (a) characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of CECs; (b) evaluate risks to fish and wildlife resources; and (c) develop tools to aid resource managers in detecting, averting, or minimizing the ecological consequences to fish and wildlife that are exposed to CECs. This report addresses objective (a) of the CEC Project, summarizing sediment and water chemistry data collected from 2010 to 2012 and fish liver tissue chemistry data collected in 2012; characterizes the sampling locations with respect to potential sources of CECs in the landscape; and provides an initial interpretation of the variation in CEC concentrations relative to the identified sources. Data collected during the first three years of our study, which included 12 sampling locations and analysis of 134 chemicals, indicate that contaminants were more frequently detected in sediment compared to water. Chemicals classified as alkyphenols, flavors/ fragrances, hormones, PAHs, and sterols had higher average detection frequencies in sediment compared to water, while the opposite was observed for pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and plasticizers/flame retardants. The St. Louis River and Maumee River sampling locations had the most CEC detections in water and sediment, relative to other sites, as well as the largest number of maximum detected concentrations across all sites in the Basin. No consistent temporal CEC occurrence patterns were observed at locations sampled multiple times each day. Most appearances and increases in chemical concentrations in sediments occurred at sites immediately downstream from wastewater treatment plants and at sites with predominantly developed land use. The location with the most observed appearances and increases was the St. Louis River. Perfluorinated compounds were commonly detected in fish liver tissues with detections in 100% of both benthic and pelagic species. The occurrence of these chemicals in liver tissue of benthic and pelagic species was generally similar. Abstract

Great Lakes Basin↗
USGS2011

Modelling the distribution of domestic ducks in Monsoon Asia

Domestic ducks are considered to be an important reservoir of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), as shown by a number of geospatial studies in which they have been identified as a significant risk factor associated with disease presence. Despite their importance in HPAI epidemiology, their large-scale distribution in Monsoon Asia is poorly understood. In this study, we created a spatial database of domestic duck census data in Asia and used it to train statistical distribution models for domestic duck distributions at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The method was based on a modelling framework used by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to produce the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, and relies on stratified regression models between domestic duck densities and a set of agro-ecological explanatory variables. We evaluated different ways of stratifying the analysis and of combining the prediction to optimize the goodness of fit of the predictions. We found that domestic duck density could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (mean RMSE and correlation coefficient between log-transformed observed and predicted densities being 0.58 and 0.80, respectively), using a stratification based on livestock production systems. We tested the use of artificially degraded data on duck distributions in Thailand and Vietnam as training data, and compared the modelled outputs with the original high-resolution data. This showed, for these two countries at least, that these approaches could be used to accurately disaggregate provincial level (administrative level 1) statistical data to provide high resolution model distributions.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗
USGS2023

A conceptual framework for estimation of initial emergency food and water resource requirements in disasters

Many households lack the necessary food and water supplies to sustain themselves for more than three days during a disaster. Community vulnerability assessments can be used to identify households with more pressing needs for emergency food and water resources. It is critical that these assessments include the interaction between physical impacts to lifeline infrastructure and the social vulnerabilities of food and water insecurity to prioritize, allocate, and distribute emergency resources. In this paper, we review and synthesize relevant literature to propose a new multidisciplinary conceptual framework of community vulnerability assessment for estimating initial emergency food and water resource requirements in a developed country. Using the framework as a guide, we illustrate its practical application through a simplified, deterministic model of initial resource requirements in disaster response, and offer a quantitative, comprehensive description of its application within the geophysical hazard context of the “ShakeOut” scenario—a major M w 7.8 earthquake on California's San Andreas fault , occurring within the Los Angeles Basin, CA (USA) region. Model results estimate that 999,027 households (2,947,130 residents) will require initial emergency food and water resource requirements. Estimates include about 6 million meals and 9 million liters of water, concentrated in Lancaster-Palmdale, El Monte-Baldwin Park, East Los Angeles-Downey in Los Angeles County, the Coachella Valley (Riverside County), and in populated areas of San Bernardino County. A sensitivity analysis of social vulnerability interactions with utility service outages investigates the influence of food insecurity on the amplification of resource needs. This study establishes fundamental knowledge at the nexus of natural hazards, critical infrastructure disruptions, and social vulnerability by providing initial estimates of emergency resource demand while advancing the understanding of social inequity in emergency resource access.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2021

Rapid monitoring of the abundance and spread of exotic annual grasses in the western United States using remote sensing and machine learning

Exotic annual grasses (EAG) are one of the most damaging agents of change in western North America. Despite known socio-environmental effects of EAG there remains a need to enhance monitoring capabilities for better informing conservation and management practices. Here, we integrate field observations, remote sensing and climate data with machine-learning techniques to estimate and assess patterns of historical (1985–2019; R 2 = 0.86 ± 0.05; MAE = 6.7 ± 1.4%), present (2020), and future (2025–2040) EAG abundance (30-m) across much of the western United States. Trend analysis revealed that ∼8% and 1% of the landscape experienced significant rises and declines in historical EAG cover, respectively, with hotspots of invasion generally occurring near roads and along low-to-mid elevation gradients with warmer and drier conditions. Accurate simulations of the response of EAG to changing environmental conditions, disturbances and management treatments indicate that ecosystem resistance to invasion is largely controlled by long-term EAG abundance (surrogate for seed bank), time since and frequency of wildfire, and plant community interactions. Ecological thresholds associated with enhanced probabilities of wildfire occurrence and invasion rates indicate that relatively little (10%) EAG cover is needed to heighten these risks. Climate change is expected to push 8% of the landscape across invasion thresholds by 2040, impacting 6% of existing sage-grouse habitat, and we identify where fuel breaks may be placed to reduce wildfire risks and invasion. Spatially detailed, timely, and accurate depictions of past, present, and future EAG abundance are vital for the protection of life and property and the continued stewardship of sagebrush ecosystems.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah,↗
USGS2005

Effects of prescribed fire in the coastal prairies of Texas

Prescribed fire is widely applied for habitat management in coastal ecosystems. Fire management plans typically list a variety of objectives for prescribed burning, including succession management, promotion of native flora and fauna, providing habitat for species of importance, wildfire risk reduction (fuels management), as well as reduction and/or prevention of invasive species. In most cases, the information needed to determine the degree to which management objectives are met is not available. This study sought to provide an assessment of key objectives of fire management at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Texas Mid-coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex. The main purpose of this work was to provide information and recommendations that will support Region 2 of the USFWS in the conduct of their fire and habitat management activities in the Western Gulf coast region. There were four main components of this project: (1) a historical analysis of the role of fire in this ecosystem, (2) the development of standard methodology for assessing and monitoring fire effects in this system, (3) an evaluation of the effects of prescribed burning on the habitat being managed, and (4) an evaluation of the effects of burning on select fauna of special concern. A team of researchers, including some from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Southeast Missouri State University, and Louisiana State University were involved in the various components of this project. Extensive support by USFWS personnel, both at the Texas Mid-coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex and in the Regional Office (Region 2, USFWS), was a key component in this work. Data from the three years of this study were combined with the results of previous USGS studies performed at the site to strengthen our conclusions.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2005

Loss estimates for a Puente Hills blind-thrust earthquake in Los Angeles, California

Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000-18,000 fatalities, 142,000-735,000 displaced households, 42,000-211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000-99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ???3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2022

Mortality associated with extreme heat in Washington State: The historical and projected public health burden

Extreme heat is one of the most important pathways illustrating the connection between climate and human health, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this public health issue. This study first used a case-crossover analysis to characterize the historical (1980–2018) association between summertime heat and non-traumatic mortality in Washington State. A separate analysis was conducted for each of the state’s ten climate divisions to produce distinct exposure–response curves expressing odds of mortality as a function of humidex. Stratified analyses were used to assess the impact of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and select causes of death, and the reported results are pooled across all divisions using meta-analysis. The historical heat–mortality relationship was combined with climate projections to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2080 under two warming scenarios. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals of mortality at the 99th percentile of humidex compared to the 50th percentile did not include the null value in four climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, Northeastern, and Puget Sound Lowlands). The statewide odds of mortality are 8% higher (6%, 10%) on 99th percentile days compared to 50th percentile days, driven primarily by an OR of 1.09 (1.06, 1.11) in the Puget Sound Lowlands. Risk is higher for women than men and for Blacks than Whites. Risk increases with age and for diabetic, circulatory, cardiovascular, ischemic, cerebrovascular, and respiratory deaths. The 95% confidence intervals of projected heat-attributable mortality did not overlap with zero in three climate divisions (E Olympic Cascade Foothills, NE Olympic San Juan, and Puget Sound Lowlands). In these three divisions, the average percent increase in heat-attributable mortality across both warming scenarios is 35%, 35%, and 603% in 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively. This research is the most extensive study of heat-related mortality in Washington to date and can help inform public health initiatives aiming to improve present and future health outcomes in the state.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Acute toxicity, histopathology, and coagulopathy in American kestrels (Falco sparverius) following administration of the rodenticie diphacinone

The acute oral toxicity of the anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone was found to be over 20 times greater in American kestrels (Falco sparverius; median lethal dose 96.8 mg/kg body weight) compared with Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Modest evidence of internal bleeding was observed at necropsy, although histological examination of heart, liver, kidney, lung, intestine, and skeletal muscle revealed hemorrhage over a wide range of doses (35.1-675 mg/kg). Residue analysis suggests that the half-life of diphacinone in the liver of kestrels that survived was relatively short, with the majority of the dose cleared within 7 d of exposure. Several precise and sensitive clotting assays (prothrombin time, Russell's viper venom time, thrombin clotting time) were adapted for use in this species, and oral administration of diphacinone at 50 mg/kg increased prothrombin time and Russell?s viper venom time at 48 and 96 h postdose compared with controls. Prolongation of in vitro clotting time reflects impaired coagulation complex activity, and generally corresponded with the onset of overt signs of toxicity and lethality. In view of the toxicity and risk evaluation data derived from American kestrels, the involvement of diphacinone in some raptor mortality events, and the paucity of threshold effects data following short-term dietary exposure for birds of prey, additional feeding trials with captive raptors are warranted to characterize more fully the risk of secondary poisoning.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2024

Developing and implementing an International Macroseismic Scale (IMS) for earthquake engineering, earthquake science, and rapid damage assessment

Executive Summary Macroseismic observations and analysis connect our collective seismological past with the present and the present to the future by facilitating hazard estimates and communicating the effects of ground shaking to a wide variety of audiences across the ages. Invaluable ground shaking and building damage information is gained through standardized, systematic approaches for assigning intensities and, importantly, sharing and archiving those assignments in a reproducible form. The applications for these assignments are far reaching. Traditional macroseismic surveys provide vital constraints on critical aspects of earthquakes and their effects on society, whereas internet-based macroseismic datasets are extremely valuable for real-time earthquake situational awareness, and they contribute to later engineering loss and risk analyses. These important applications of macroseismic observations would be helped by revisiting traditional macroseismic surveys for modern environments, standardizing internet-based collection strategies, and ensuring compatibility between traditional and internet-based approaches of macroseismic data collection. Even with best practices, we have identified several limitations with modern macroseismic data collection approaches, particularly from the U.S. Geological Survey's perspective. First, whereas crowdsourced, internet-based intensities such as “Did You Feel It?” are robust and definitive for lower intensities, they are poorly defined above intensity VII, where damage observations may require expert knowledge of each building’s structural system. Second, in the United States, we use the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale, which is consistent with—yet inferior to—the more recently developed European Macroseismic Scale (EMS–98; Grünthal and others, 1998). Similarly, New Zealand uses the New Zealand MMI Scale (Dowrick and others, 2008), which lacks detail on how to assign intensities above MMI VIII. The EMS–98 fundamentally advanced the science of macroseismic intensity assignment by requiring quantitative assessments at each location through consistent application on statistical ranges of well-defined damage grades to building-specific vulnerability classes. Lastly, the United States and New Zealand no longer have professionals dedicated to conducting traditional macroseismic field surveys, so a strategy is needed for allowing postearthquake building inspectors and insurance loss assessors to contribute to intensity assignments. The goals of our International Macroseismic Scale workshop were thus twofold. First, harmonize the MMI Scale with EMS–98 for the United States and New Zealand—which share several similar building types—by considering those structures and associated damage grades that are not well represented in the current EMS–98 building vulnerability class table. Second, begin to formalize the process of augmenting EMS–98 with new regional building classes and damage grades toward the development of a macroseismic scale that can be used globally, beyond the United States and New Zealand. Such an effort necessarily requires reviewing and expanding the original EMS–98 explanatory documents and consideration of any required revisions. We can build on the shoulders of giants in that a few of the original EMS–98 developers and experts participated in and were integral to our workshop. Their background and guidance were key in moving forward toward an international scale. We agreed that additional building vulnerability classes, damage grades, and written and pictorial descriptions are necessary and ideally accompanied by a detailed paper trail for other nations to follow. If we can improve the macroseismic assignment process in both nations, we can also aim to refine the process of collecting postearthquake impact data, a boon to many engineering and financial concerns. The benefits of a truly International Macroseismic Scale are considerable for both the engineering and seismology communities. A modern macroseismic scale requires more deliberate archival damage data collection, motivating more consistent and accessible postevent datasets that would have applications beyond the specific event. Applying field-collected building damage data toward macroseismic assignments would allow for increased coordination between engineering reconnaissance teams and local inspectors in collecting such data for official purposes. In addition, rapid and consistent intensity assignments globally would enable more accurate ShakeMaps—and thus improved earthquake engineering and geotechnical forensics, loss and risk estimates, and correlations between macroseismic intensity and ground motion parameters. A brief summary of the Powell Center IMS workshop was published by Wald and others (2023) in the magazine Eos. This Open-File Report describes the workshop, its discussions, and its outcomes in detail. In summarizing the workshop, we have added important background material and reflections for proper context.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2008

Low-Level detections of halogenated volatile organic compounds in groundwater: Use in vulnerability assessments

Concentrations of halogenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were determined by gas chromatography (GC) with an electron-capture detector (GC-ECD) and by gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS) in 109 groundwater samples from five study areas in the United States. In each case, the untreated water sample was used for drinking-water purposes or was from a monitoring well in an area near a drinking-water source. The minimum detection levels (MDLs) for 25 VOCs that were identified in GC-ECD chromatograms, typically, were two to more than four orders of magnitude below the GC-MS MDLs. At least six halogenated VOCs were detected in all of the water samples analyzed by GC-ECD, although one or more VOCs were detected in only 43% of the water samples analyzed by GC-MS. In nearly all of the samples, VOC concentrations were very low and presented no known health risk. Most of the low-level VOC detections indicated post-1940s recharge, or mixtures of recharge that contained a fraction of post-1940s water. Concentrations of selected halogenated VOCs in groundwater from natural and anthropogenic atmospheric sources were estimated and used to recognize water samples that are being impacted by nonatmospheric sources. A classification is presented to perform vulnerability assessments at the scale of individual wells using the number of halogenated VOC detections and total dissolved VOC concentrations in samples of untreated drinking water. The low-level VOC detections are useful in vulnerability assessments, particularly for samples in which no VOCs are detected by GC-MS analysis.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗
USGS2022

Anthropogenic vs. natural pollution: An environmental study of an industrial site under remediation (Naples, Italy)

Heavy metal concentrations and Pb isotopic composition were determined in the soils, slags, scums and landfill materials from a shut down industrial (brownfield) site. This was the second largest integrated steelworks in Italy, and is now under remediation by a Government project. It is located in the outskirts of Napoli on the Bagnoli-Fuorigrotta plain (BFP), which is part of the Campi Flegrei (CF) volcanic caldera, where many spas and geothermal springs occur. The purpose of this work is to distinguish the natural (geogenic) component, originated by hydrothermal activity, from anthropogenic contamination owing to industrial activity. 'In-situ sediments' (soils), slags, scums and landfill materials from 20 drill-cores were selected from a network of 197 drills carried out on a 100 ?? 100 m grid, covering the entire brownfield site. In general, heavy metal enrichments in the upper 3 m of the cores strongly suggest mixing between natural (geogenic) and anthropogenic components. Pb isotopic data are suggestive of three potential end members, and confirm the existence of a strong natural component in addition to contamination from anthropogenic activities. The slags, scums and landfill materials have been proved, through mineralogy and leachate experiments, to be geochemically stable; this shows that metal pollutants are not bio-available and, hence, do not pose a risk to future developments on this site. The natural contribution of hydrothermal fluids to soil pollution, in addition to the non-bio-availability of metal pollutants from industrial materials, indicate that heavy metal remediation of soils in this area would be of little use. Continuous discharge from mineralized hydrothermal solutions would cancel out any remediation effort.

Geochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis↗
USGS1996

Possible continuous-type (unconventional) gas accumulation in the Lower Silurian "Clinton" sands, Medina Group and Tuscarora Sandstone in the Appalachian Basin; a progress report of the 1995 project activities

INTRODUCTION: In the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) 1995 National Assessment of United States oil and gas resources (Gautier and others, 1995), the Appalachian basin was estimated to have, at a mean value, about 61 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas in sandstone and shale reservoirs of Paleozoic age. Approximately one-half of this gas resource is estimated to reside in a regionally extensive, continuous-type gas accumulation whose reservoirs consist of low-permeability sandstone of the Lower Silurian 'Clinton' sands and Medina Group (Gautier and others, 1995; Ryder, 1995). Recognizing the importance of this large regional gas accumulation for future energy considerations, the USGS initiated in January 1995 a multi-year study to evaluate the nature, distribution, and origin of natural gas in the 'Clinton' sands, Medina Group sandstones, and equivalent Tuscarora Sandstone. The project is part of a larger natural gas project, Continuous Gas Accumulations in Sandstones and Carbonates, coordinated in FY1995 by Ben E. Law and Jennie L. Ridgley, USGS, Denver. Approximately 2.6 man years were devoted to the Clinton/Medina project in FY1995. A continuous-type gas accumulation, referred to in the project, is a new term introduced by Schmoker (1995a) to identify those natural gas accumulations whose reservoirs are charged throughout with gas over a large area and whose entrapment does not involve a downdip gas-water contact. Gas in these accumulations is located downdip of the water column and, thus, is the reverse of conventional-type hydrocarbon accumulations. Commonly used industry terms that are more or less synonymous with continuous-type gas accumulations include basin- centered gas accumulation (Rose and others, 1984; Law and Spencer, 1993), tight (low-permeability) gas reservoir (Spencer, 1989; Law and others, 1989; Perry, 1994), and deep basin gas (Masters, 1979, 1984). The realization that undiscovered gas in Lower Silurian sandstone reservoirs of the Appalachian basin probably occurs in a continuous accumulation rather than in conventionally trapped, discrete accumulations represents a significant departure from the 1989 National Assessment (Mast and others, 1989; deWitt, 1993). In 1989, a direct assessment (field-size distributions required for play analysis were unavailable) of the Lower Silurian sandstone play gave, at a mean value, about 1.7 TCF of gas. The 1995 estimate (~30 TCF of gas) is so much greater than the 1989 estimate (~1.7 TCF of gas) because of the interpreted continuous nature of the accumulation and the assessment methodology applied. The methodology for continuous hydrocarbon accumulations assumes that the reservoirs in the accumulation are gas-saturated and takes into account: 1) estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well probability distributions, 2) optimum area that a well can drain (spacing), 3) number of untested drill sites having the appropriate spacing area, 4) success ratio of previously drilled holes, and 5) risk (Schmoker, 1995b). Davis (1984), Zagorski (1988, 1991), and Law and Spencer (1993) were among the first petroleum geologists to suggest that gas in the 'Clinton' sands and Medina Group sandstones was trapped in a basin-centered/deep basin accumulation. They recognized many of the earmarks of a basin-centered/deep basin accumulation such as low-permeability reservoirs, abnormally low formation pressure, coalesced gas fields, gas shows or production in most holes drilled, low water yields, and a general lack of structural control on entrapment. Ryder (1995) adopted this interpretation by defining four continuous-type gas plays (6728-6731) in the 'Clinton' sands-Medina Group interval (fig.1). Play 6728 (Clinton/Medina sandstone gas high potential) covers a 17,000 sq mi region of western New York, northwestern Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and a small part of westernmost West Virginia that is very favorable for future gas resources (fig.1). Also, this play includes a l

Open-File Report↗
USGS2003

The Role of Geoscience Information in Reducing Catastrophic Loss Using a Web-Based Economics Experiment

What role can geoscience information play in the assessment of risk and the value of insurance, especially for natural hazard type risks? In an earlier, related paper Ganderton and others (2000) provided subjects with relatively simple geoscience information concerning natural hazard-type risks. Their research looked at how subjects purchase insurance when faced with relatively low probability but high loss risks of the kind that characterize natural hazards and now, increasingly, manmade disasters. They found evidence to support the expected utility theory (definitions of economics terms can be found in a glossary at the end of report), yet there remained the implication that subjects with excessive aversion to risk were willing to pay considerably more for insurance than the actuarially fair price plus any reasonable risk premium. Here, we report the results of additional experiments that provide further support for the basic postulates of expected utility theory. However, these new experiments add considerably to the decision environment facing subjects by offering an option to purchase geoscientific information that would assist them when calculating expected losses from hazards more accurately. Using an Internet-based mechanism to present information and gather data in an experimental setting, this research provided subjects with considerable textual and graphical information, and time to process it. Over a period of three months, almost 400 subjects participated in on-line experiments that generated approximately 22,000 usable data points for the empirical analysis discussed in this report. In the design of the experiment, we modeled the decisions to purchase (1) a detailed map giving subjects more information regarding the distribution of losses from a hazard and (2) insurance to indemnify them from any losses should they occur. On the basis of this design, we find strong evidence in support of the expected utility theory. Many of the findings reinforce those found in the early, similar study (Ganderton and others, 2000). However, this research also finds interactions between the decision to become better informed and the decision to insure. We chose an empirical framework that allows for both explicit and implicit (unobservable) correlations between the two decisions. The results suggest that at the end of the computer game subjects recognize the benefits of greater geoscience information. They take advantage of it, but are sensitive to its cost. When subjects use the more detailed information, they are more likely to purchase insurance when it offers a net benefit.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2003

Vulnerability of ground water to contamination, northern Bexar County, Texas

The Trinity aquifer, composed of Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks, largely controls the ground-water hydrology in the study area of northern Bexar County, Texas. Discharge from the Trinity aquifer recharges the downgradient, hydraulically connected Edwards aquifer one of the most permeable and productive aquifers in the Nation and the sole source of water for more than a million people in south-central Texas. The unconfined, karstic outcrop of the Edwards aquifer makes it particularly vulnerable to contamination resulting from urbanization that is spreading rapidly northward across an "environmentally sensitive" recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer and its upgradient "catchment area," composed mostly of the less permeable Trinity aquifer. A better understanding of the Trinity aquifer is needed to evaluate water-management decisions affecting the quality of water in both the Trinity and Edwards aquifers. A study was made, therefore, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System to assess northern Bexar County's vulnerability to ground-water contamination. The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in this area varies with the effects of five categories of natural features (hydrogeologic units, faults, caves and (or) sinkholes, slopes, and soils) that occur on the outcrop and in the shallow subcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone. Where faults affect the rates of recharge or discharge or the patterns of ground-water flow in the Glen Rose Limestone, they likewise affect the risk of water-quality degradation. Caves and sinkholes generally increase the vulnerability of ground water to contamination, especially where their occurrences are concentrated. The slope of land surface can affect the vulnerability of ground water by controlling where and how long a potential contaminant remains on the surface. Disregarding the exception of steep slopes which are assumed to have no soil cover the greater the slope, the less the risk of ground-water contamination. Because most soils in the study area are uniformly thin, they have only minimal effect on the vulnerability of ground water to contamination. The results of hydrogeologic mapping during the present study divide the outcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone into five mappable intervals, labeled (youngest to oldest) A through E. Of these intervals, only the middle (C) and the lowermost (E) generally provide appreciable permeability. The vulnerability assessment provided herein was determined by combining the presumed effects of selected natural features (with individual vulnerability ratings ranging from 0 through 35) using a grid-based, multilayer system of digital datasets and geographic information system analysis. The resulting vulnerability map comprises composite vulnerability ratings that range from 26 through 104. The relatively less vulnerable areas those containing no faults, sinkholes, or caves occupy about 92 percent of the study area. The most vulnerable areas are those containing both a fault and one or more caves. The distribution of the most vulnerable areas which trend from southwest to northeast, roughly parallel to the Balcones fault zone occur mainly where faults intersect caves.

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