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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

Ground-coupled acoustic airwaves from Mount St. Helens provide constraints on the May 18, 1980 eruption

The May 18, 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption perturbed the atmosphere and generated atmosphere-to-ground coupled airwaves, which were recorded on at least 35 seismometers operated by the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN). From 102 distinct travel time picks we identify coherent airwaves crossing Washington State primarily to the north and east of the volcano. The travel time curves provide evidence for both stratospheric refractions (at 200 to 300 km from the volcano) as well as probable thermospheric refractions (at 100 to 350 km). The very few first-hand reports of audible volcano sounds within about 80 km of the volcano coincide with a general absence of ground-coupled acoustic arrivals registered within about 100 km and are attributed to upward refraction of sound waves. From the coherent refracted airwave arrivals, we identify at least four distinct sources which we infer to originate 10 s, 114 s, ∼ 180 s and 319 s after the onset of an 8:32:11 PDT landslide. The first of these sources is attributed to resultant depressurization and explosion of the cryptodome. Most of the subsequent arrivals also appear to be coincident with a source located at or near the presumed volcanic conduit, but at least one of the later arrivals suggests an epicenter displaced about 9 km to the northwest of the vent. This dislocation is compatible with the direction of the sector collapse and lateral blast. We speculate that this concussion corresponds to a northern explosion event associated with hot cryptodome entering the Toutle River Valley.

Washington↗

The failure of earthquake failure models

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Land use and land cover digital data

The discipline of cartography is undergoing a number of profound changesthat center on the emerging influence ofdigital manipulation and analysis ofdata for the preparation of cartographic materials and for use in geographic information systems. Operational requirements have led to the development by the USGS National Mapping Division of several documents that establish in-house digital cartographic standards. In an effort to fulfill lead agency requirements for promulgation of Federal standards in the earth sciences, the documents have been edited and assembled with explanatory text into a USGS Circular. This Circular describes some of the pertinent issues relative to digital cartographic data standards, documents the digital cartographic data standards currently in use within the USGS, and details the efforts of the USGS related to the definition of national digital cartographic data standards. It consists of several chapters; the first is a general overview, and each succeeding chapter is made up from documents that establish in-house standards for one of the various types of digital cartographic data currently produced. This chapter 895-E, describes the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System that is used in conjunction with the USGS land use and land cover classification system to encode, edit, manipuate, and analyze land use and land cover digital data.

Open-File Report↗

Construction ages of the Upton Stone Chamber: Preliminary findings and suggestions for future luminescence research

The Upton Chamber in Massachusetts, an earth-covered stone structure 3.4 meters (m) in diameter, with a corbelled stone dome, and a 4.3 m long entrance passageway, is studied with the aim of determining whether optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods can be used to establish the approximate construction date of the entranceway. Three samples, taken from soil behind the lowest stones in the wall of the entrance passageway, returned OSL ages between 385 and 660 years ago (or from 1625 A.D. to 1350 A.D.; using the year 2011 as the 0 year). One sample, taken below the bottom of the artifact layers in an archeological test pit in front of the chamber entrance, returned OSL ages between 650 and 880 years ago. A modern sample collected from a nearby fluvial channel returned an age between 55 and 175 years. The Upton Chamber OSL sampling results are challenging to interpret because there are mixtures in the samples of both younger and older grains that likely result from human modification, root or soil processes, animal bioturbation (i.e. ants and worms), and/or partial bleaching. The ages were determined using the lowest component of the finite mixture model as applied to a distribution of quartz grains. Further research may enable us to determine whether older components are of anthropomorphic or geological origin.

Massachusetts↗

Dinosaurs that did not die: Evidence for Paleocene dinosaurs in the Ojo Alamo Sandstone, San Juan Basin, New Mexico

Palynologic and paleomagnetic data confirm a Paleocene age for the Ojo Alamo Sandstone (and its contained dinosaurs) throughout the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. The recently reported discovery of 34 skeletal elements from a single hadrosaur in the Ojo Alamo provides unequivocal evidence that these bones were not reworked from underlying Cretaceous strata. Geochemical studies of samples from several single-dinosaur-bone specimens from the Paleocene Ojo Alamo Sandstone and the underlying Late Cretaceous (Campanian) Kirtland Formation show that mineralized bones from these two rock units contain distinctly different abundances of uranium and rare-earth elements and demonstrate that Cretaceous and Paleocene bones were mineralized at different times when mineralizing fluids had distinctly different chemical compositions. These findings indicate that the dinosaur bone from the Paleocene Ojo Alamo is indigenous and not reworked. These data show that a relatively diverse assemblage of dinosaurs survived the end-Cretaceous asteroid-impact extinction event of 65.5 Ma. The San Juan Basin’s Paleocene dinosaur fauna is herein named the Alamoan fauna. Magnetic-polarity chronology shows that these survivors lived for about one million years into the Paleocene and then became extinct around 64.5 Ma. We suggest that a plausible survival mechanism for this Lazarus fauna may have been the large numbers of buried dinosaur eggs, laid just before the asteroid impact occurred. These buried eggs would have provided a safe haven for developing dinosaur embryos for the first one to two years after the impact, thereby making it possible for them to survive the worst of the impact’s early devastation.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

Spatio-temporal mapping of plate boundary faults in California using geodetic imaging

The Pacific–North American plate boundary in California is composed of a 400-km-wide network of faults and zones of distributed deformation. Earthquakes, even large ones, can occur along individual or combinations of faults within the larger plate boundary system. While research often focuses on the primary and secondary faults, holistic study of the plate boundary is required to answer several fundamental questions. How do plate boundary motions partition across California faults? How do faults within the plate boundary interact during earthquakes? What fraction of strain accumulation is relieved aseismically and does this provide limits on fault rupture propagation? Geodetic imaging, broadly defined as measurement of crustal deformation and topography of the Earth’s surface, enables assessment of topographic characteristics and the spatio-temporal behavior of the Earth’s crust. We focus here on crustal deformation observed with continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) data and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA’s airborne UAVSAR platform, and on high-resolution topography acquired from lidar and Structure from Motion (SfM) methods. Combined, these measurements are used to identify active structures, past ruptures, transient motions, and distribution of deformation. The observations inform estimates of the mechanical and geometric properties of faults. We discuss five areas in California as examples of different fault behavior, fault maturity and times within the earthquake cycle: the M6.0 2014 South Napa earthquake rupture, the San Jacinto fault, the creeping and locked Carrizo sections of the San Andreas fault, the Landers rupture in the Eastern California Shear Zone, and the convergence of the Eastern California Shear Zone and San Andreas fault in southern California. These examples indicate that distribution of crustal deformation can be measured using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and high-resolution topography and can improve our understanding of tectonic deformation and rupture characteristics within the broad plate boundary zone.

California↗

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model. SNTEMP was used to simulate daily stream temperature in selected stream reaches in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2005. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the years 2010 through 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the simulation period showed increases in maximum and minimum air temperature. Scenarios of future precipitation, however, did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased with time for both temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snowmelt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions, with relatively less drying expected in groundwater-fed systems. Groundwater discharge in the current upper cold-water reaches of Black Earth Creek is expected to decrease; flooding in downstream reaches may appreciably increase. The magnitude of changes in forecasted flow and associated groundwater/surface-water interaction is dependent on the General Circulation Model and emission scenario chosen. Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Wisconsin↗

Subalkaline andesite from Valu Fa Ridge, a back-arc spreading center in southern Lau Basin: petrogenesis, comparative chemistry, and tectonic implications

Tholeiitic andesite was dredged from two sites on Valu Fa Ridge (VFR), a back-arc spreading center in Lau Basin. Valu Fa Ridge, at least 200 km long, is located 40-50 km west of the active Tofua Volcanic Arc (TVA) axis and lies about 150 km above the subducted oceanic plate. One or more magma chambers, traced discontinuously for about 100 km along the ridge axis, lie 3-4 km beneath the ridge. The mostly aphyric and glassy lavas had high volatile contents, as shown by the abundance and large sizes of vesicles. An extensive fractionation history is inferred from the high SiO2 contents and FeO* MgO ratios. Chemical data show that the VFR lavas have both volcanic arc and back-arc basin affinities. The volcanic arc characteristics are: (1) relatively high abundances of most alkali and alkaline earth elements; (2) low abundances of high field strength elements Nb and Ta; (3) high U/Th ratios; (4) similar radiogenic isotope ratios in VFR and TVA lavas, in particular the enrichment of 87Sr 86Sr relative to 206Pb 204Pb; (5) high 238U 230Th, 230Th 232Th, and 226Ra 230Th activity ratios; and (6) high ratios of Rb/Cs, Ba/Nb, and Ba/La. Other chemical characteristics suggest that the VFR lavas are related to MORB-type back-arc basin lavas. For example, VFR lavas have (1) lower 87Sr 86Sr ratios and higher 143Nd 144Nd ratios than most lavas from the TVA, except samples from Ata Island, and are similar to many Lau Basin lavas; (2) lower Sr/REE, Rb/Zr, and Ba/Zr ratios than in arc lavas; and (3) higher Ti, Fe, and V, and higher Ti/V ratios than arc lavas generally and TVA lavas specifically. Most characteristics of VFR lavas can be explained by mixing depleted mantle with either small amounts of sediment and fluids from the subducting slab and/or an older fragment of volcanic arc lithosphere. The eruption of subalkaline andesite with some arc affinities along a back-arc spreading ridge is not unique. Collision of the Louisville and Tonga ridges probably activated back-arc extension that ultimately led to the creation and growth of Valu Fa Ridge. Some ophiolitic fragments in circum-Pacific and circum-Tethyan allochthonous terranes, presently interpreted to have originated in volcanic arcs, may instead be fragments of lithosphere that formed during early stages of seafloor spreading in a back-arc basin. ?? 1991.

Chemical Geology↗

Age-specific light preferences and vertical migration patterns of a Great Lakes invasive invertebrate, Hemimysis anomala

We use a combination of spectral sensitivity analyses, laboratory behavioral observations and field distributions of a vertically migrating invertebrate, Hemimysis anomala (a recent invasive species to the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America), to determine if light preference and timing of emergence has an ontogenetic component. Juvenile Hemimysis (< 4.5 mm) preferred light levels between 10 −3.4 and 10 −2.4 mylux— a Hemimysis -specific unit of brightness derived from visual pigment analyses (wavelength of maximum absorbance = 500 nm; 1 mylux ~ 159 lx). These preferred light levels are equivalent to those present during nautical twilight on the Earth's surface and were several orders of magnitude brighter than those most preferred by adults (> 4.5 mm) in the laboratory (10 −6.4 to 10 −7.4 mylux). Both size classes completely avoided light levels of 10 −0.4 mylux and greater, which are representative of daytime light levels at the Earth's surface. Net hauls taken at ~ 20-min intervals from sunset to the end of nautical twilight on two sampling occasions on Seneca Lake, New York (sampling depth = 2 m) revealed that juveniles emerged into the water column during civil twilight. Adult Hemimysis emerged later during nautical twilight when juveniles had already reached their maximum abundance in the water column. Laboratory-derived light preferences successfully predicted the timing of emergence and time of maximal abundance of both size classes on both sampling occasions. This study is one of the first to demonstrate that Hemimysis diel vertical migration has an ontogenetic component and to report the specific light levels likely to initiate and limit vertical movements.

Great Lakes↗

A fault‐based model for crustal deformation in the western United States based on a combined inversion of GPS and geologic inputs

We develop a crustal deformation model to determine fault‐slip rates for the western United States (WUS) using the Zeng and Shen (2014) method that is based on a combined inversion of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geological slip‐rate constraints. The model consists of six blocks with boundaries aligned along major faults in California and the Cascadia subduction zone, which are represented as buried dislocations in the Earth. Faults distributed within blocks have their geometrical structure and locking depths specified by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map Project model. Faults slip beneath a predefined locking depth, except for a few segments where shallow creep is allowed. The slip rates are estimated using a least‐squares inversion. The model resolution analysis shows that the resulting model is influenced heavily by geologic input, which fits the UCERF3 geologic bounds on California B faults and ±one‐half of the geologic slip rates for most other WUS faults. The modeled slip rates for the WUS faults are consistent with the observed GPS velocity field. Our fit to these velocities is measured in terms of a normalized chi‐square, which is 6.5. This updated model fits the data better than most other geodetic‐based inversion models. Major discrepancies between well‐resolved GPS inversion rates and geologic‐consensus rates occur along some of the northern California A faults, the Mojave to San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas fault, the western Garlock fault, the southern segment of the Wasatch fault, and other faults. Off‐fault strain‐rate distributions are consistent with regional tectonics, with a total off‐fault moment rate of 7.2 &#xD7; 10 18 "> 7.2 × 10 18 and 8.5 &#xD7; 10 18 &#x2009;&#x2009; N &#xB7; m / year "> 8.5 × 10 18 N ⋅ m / year for California and the WUS outside California, respectively.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion: Chapter 28 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

The Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997), also known as the “Madrean Sky Islands” or “Sky Islands,” covers an area of approximately 40,536 km 2 (15,651 mi 2 ) in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico (fig. 1). The ecoregion is bounded on the west by the Sonoran Basin and Range Ecoregion, on the east by the Chihuahuan Deserts Ecoregion, and on the north by the Arizona/New Mexico Mountains Ecoregion. This area of basin-and-range topography is one of the most biologically diverse in the world (Koprowski, 2005; Skroch, 2008). Although the mountains in the ecoregion bridge the Rocky Mountains to the north and the Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico to the south (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997), the lower elevations act as a barrier to species dispersal. Nevertheless, the geographic convergence of these two major continental mountain ranges, as well as of the Chihuahuan Desert to the east and the Sonoran Desert to the west, forms the foundation for ecological interactions found nowhere else on Earth (Skroch, 2008).

Arizona;New Mexico↗

Advancements in satellite observations of inland and coastal waters: Building towards a global validation network

The use of satellite-based remote sensing imagery for water quality monitoring of inland and coastal waters has become widespread over the last few decades, with the expansion of, and investment in, operational Earth-observing missions. Satellite-based sensors are uniquely suited to provide synoptic, system-wide water quality parameter estimates that supplement traditional field-based sampling methods. The remote sensing of water quality parameter estimates is particularly valuable in systems with high temporal and spatial variability, as well as in areas that are difficult to access, or where agencies lack funding for routine monitoring. However, optically complex inland and coastal waters pose additional challenges for developing robust remote sensing retrieval models for optical properties and water quality parameters. One of the biggest challenges is collecting high quality field measurements that are used to calibrate and validate the retrieval algorithms. Here, we present the current status of satellite missions, field methods that include instruments used and commonly measured parameters, and repositories of historical field data that are relevant to inland and coastal water studies. We then present data requirements for model validation and highlight gaps in validation coverage. Finally, we provide suggestions for future field campaigns to improve coordination with remote sensing data collection and to ensure that field data is well suited for use in model or algorithm development.

Remote Sensing↗

Method for calculating self-noise spectra and operating ranges for seismographic inertial sensors and recorders

Understanding the performance of sensors and recorders is prerequisite to making appropriate use of them in seismology and earthquake engineering. This paper explores a critical aspect of instrument performance, the “self” noise level of the device and the amplitude range it can usefully record. Self noise limits the smallest signals, while instrument clipping level creates the upper limit (above which it either cannot produce signals or becomes unacceptably nonlinear). Where these levels fall, and the “operating range” between them, determines much of the instrument's viability and the applications for which it is appropriate. The representation of seismic-instrument self-noise levels and their effective operating ranges (cf., dynamic range) for seismological inertial sensors, recorders (data acquisition units, or DAUs), and integrated systems of sensors and recorders (data acquisition systems, or DASs) forces one to address an unnatural comparison between transient finite-bandwidth signals, such as earthquake records, and the instrument's self noise, an effectively stationary signal of infinite duration. In addition to being transient, earthquakes and other records of interest are characterized by a peak amplitude and generally a narrow, peaked spectral shape. Unfortunately, any power spectrum computed for such transient signals is ill defined, since the maximum of that spectrum depends strongly upon signal and record durations. In contrast, the noise floor of an instrument is approximately stationary and properly described by a power spectral density (PSD) or its root (rPSD). Put another way, earthquake records have units of amplitude ( e.g. , m/s 2 ) while PSDs have units of amplitude-squared per hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 ) 2 /Hz) and the rPSD has units of amplitude per root of hertz ( e.g. , (m/s 2 )/Hz 1/2 ). Thus, this incompatability is a conflict between earthquake (amplitude) and PSD (spectral density) units that requires one to make various assumptions before they can be compared. For purposes of instrument operational performance, we provide a means of evaluating signal and noise and the range between them in a manner representative of time-domain instrument performance. We call these “operating range diagrams” (ORDs), plots of instrument self noise and clipping level; the “operating range” is the range between these values. For frequency-domain performance we elect to show self noise as an rPSD that may be compared to another instrument's noise or to ambient Earth noise ( e.g. , Peterson 1993); however, to limit the number of arbitrary choices required to merge transient and stationary signals we do not compare the rPSD to transient signals in the frequency domain. Our solution for a time-domain comparison is not new but rather builds upon the consensus of the first and second Guidelines for Seismometer Testing workshops (Hutt et al. 2009) and long established practice in acoustics. We propose this method as a standard for characterizing seismic instruments, and it has been endorsed by the second workshop (Hutt et al. 2009, 2010) and the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Working Group (2008) and recent ANSS procurement specifications.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Blind comparisons of shear-wave velocities at closely-spaced sites in San Jose, California: Proceedings of a Workshop held at the US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, May 3, 2004

Shear-wave velocities within several hundred meters of Earth's surface are important in specifying earthquake ground motions for engineering design. Not only are the shearwave velocities used in classifying sites for use of modern building codes, but they are also used in site-specific studies of particularly significant structures. Many are the methods for estimating sub-surface shear-wave velocities, but few are the blind comparisons of a number of the methods at a single site. The word "blind" is important here and means that the measurements and interpretations are done completely independent of one another. Stephen Hartzell of the USGS office on Golden, Colorado realized that such an experiment would be very useful for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the various methods, and he and Jack Boatwright of the USGS office in Menlo Park, California, in cooperation with Carl Wentworth of the Menlo Park USGS office found a convenient site in the city of San Jose, California. The site had good access and space for conducting experiments, and a borehole drilled to several hundred meters by the Santa Clara Valley Water District was made available for downhole logging. Jack Boatwright asked David Boore to coordinate the experiment. In turn, David Boore persuaded several teams to make measurements, helped with the local logistics, collected the results, and organized and conducted an International Workshop in May, 2004. At this meeting the participants in the experiment gathered in Menlo Park to describe their measurements and interpretations, and to see the results of the comparisons of the various methods for the first time. This Open-File Report describes the results of that workshop. One of the participants, Michael Asten, offered to help the coordinator prepare this report. Because of his lead role in pulling the report together, Dr. Asten is the lead author of the paper to follow and is also the lead Compiler for the Open-File Report. It is important to recognize that most of the participants in the experiments contributed at their own expense. It is gratifying that many people recognized the importance of the experiment and were willing to volunteer their time and resources. We thank them for this effort. This Report is organized in three parts: the first part is a paper summarizing the results of the Workshop, and presenting some conclusions regarding the various methods; the second part is a compilation of those documents describing the experiments that were presented at the meeting (a few of the reports have had minor post-meeting revisions, but with only one exception noted later, none of the models were changed). The final part of this Report is a compilation of the presentations from the meeting -- these are largely in the form of Powerpoint files. No attempt has been made by the compilers to edit the material in parts 2 and 3. It is included here as is for the benefit of the reader.

California↗

Phytoplankton primary production in the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Estuaries are biogeochemical hot spots because they receive large inputs of nutrients and organic carbon from land and oceans to support high rates of metabolism and primary production. We synthesize published rates of annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP) in marine ecosystems influenced by connectivity to land – estuaries, bays, lagoons, fjords and inland seas. Review of the scientific literature produced a compilation of 1148 values of APPP derived from monthly incubation assays to measure carbon assimilation or oxygen production. The median value of median APPP measurements in 131 ecosystems is 185 and the mean is 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , but the range is large: from −105 (net pelagic production in the Scheldt Estuary) to 1890 g C m −2 yr −1 (net phytoplankton production in Tamagawa Estuary). APPP varies up to 10-fold within ecosystems and 5-fold from year to year (but we only found eight APPP series longer than a decade so our knowledge of decadal-scale variability is limited). We use studies of individual places to build a conceptual model that integrates the mechanisms generating this large variability: nutrient supply, light limitation by turbidity, grazing by consumers, and physical processes (river inflow, ocean exchange, and inputs of heat, light and wind energy). We consider method as another source of variability because the compilation includes values derived from widely differing protocols. A simulation model shows that different methods reported in the literature can yield up to 3-fold variability depending on incubation protocols and methods for integrating measured rates over time and depth. Although attempts have been made to upscale measures of estuarine-coastal APPP, the empirical record is inadequate for yielding reliable global estimates. The record is deficient in three ways. First, it is highly biased by the large number of measurements made in northern Europe (particularly the Baltic region) and North America. Of the 1148 reported values of APPP, 958 come from sites between 30 and 60° N; we found only 36 for sites south of 20° N. Second, of the 131 ecosystems where APPP has been reported, 37% are based on measurements at only one location during 1 year. The accuracy of these values is unknown but probably low, given the large interannual and spatial variability within ecosystems. Finally, global assessments are confounded by measurements that are not intercomparable because they were made with different methods. Phytoplankton primary production along the continental margins is tightly linked to variability of water quality, biogeochemical processes including ocean–atmosphere CO 2 exchange, and production at higher trophic levels including species we harvest as food. The empirical record has deficiencies that preclude reliable global assessment of this key Earth system process. We face two grand challenges to resolve these deficiencies: (1) organize and fund an international effort to use a common method and measure APPP regularly across a network of coastal sites that are globally representative and sustained over time, and (2) integrate data into a unifying model to explain the wide range of variability across ecosystems and to project responses of APPP to regional manifestations of global change as it continues to unfold.

Biogeosciences↗

Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy

Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes? Early on the morning of 16 December 1811, an earthquake of about magnitude 7 shook the centre of the United States around a small town on the Mississippi called New Madrid. By 7 February 1812, it had triggered three more shocks of similar magnitude. The earthquakes broke a set of faults along the Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee state boundaries, apparently reactivating an ancient rift in the interior of a continental tectonic plate. On 31 August 1886, a magnitude-7 shock struck Charleston, South Carolina; low-level activity continues there today. One view of seismic hazard is that large earthquakes will return to New Madrid and Charleston at intervals of about 500 years. With expected ground motions that would be stronger than average, that prospect produces estimates of earthquake hazard that rival those at the plate boundaries marked by the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. The result is two large 'bull's-eyes' on the US National Seismic Hazard Maps &mdash; which, for example, influence regional building codes and perceptions of public safety.

Nature↗

The influence of sea level rise on the regional interdependence of coastal infrastructure

Sea level rise (SLR) is placing both immediate and long‐term pressures on coastal communities to take protective actions. Projects in the United States, and in many locations throughout the world, generally involve local jurisdictions raising the elevation of shoreline protection elements, with limited or no analysis of the feedback between shoreline management decisions and the impacts to water levels regionally. Our study examines the impact of local shoreline development on regional flood risk and considers SLR scenarios up to 1.5 m using a large‐scale numerical model, as an example, for San Francisco Bay. Here we show that measures to prevent flooding along an embayment shoreline in one location or subregion may increase inundation elsewhere in the system. The network of interactions occurs not only within subbasins of the Bay but also across the greater geographic extent from one end of the Bay to the other, and local jurisdiction may have either reciprocal relationships with or asymmetric impacts on one other. Importantly, the nature of the interaction network is seen to evolve with SLR: interactions are purely subregional at current sea level but with higher sea level (e.g., 1 m of SLR), not only do the subregional interdependencies strengthen but also regional interdependences emerge.

California↗

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Colorado Plateau↗