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USGS2012

Variance of discharge estimates sampled using acoustic Doppler current profilers from moving boats

This paper presents a model for quantifying the random errors (i.e., variance) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving boats for different sampling times. The model focuses on the random processes in the sampled flow field and has been developed using statistical methods currently available for uncertainty analysis of velocity time series. Analysis of field data collected using ADCP from moving boats from three natural rivers of varying sizes and flow conditions shows that, even though the estimate of the integral time scale of the actual turbulent flow field is larger than the sampling interval, the integral time scale of the sampled flow field is on the order of the sampling interval. Thus, an equation for computing the variance error in discharge measurements associated with different sampling times, assuming uncorrelated flow fields is appropriate. The approach is used to help define optimal sampling strategies by choosing the exposure time required for ADCPs to accurately measure flow discharge.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗

USGS2011

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Williston Basin Province of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota, 2010

Using a geology-based assessment method, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 3.8 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, 3.7 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 0.2 billion barrels of undiscovered natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin Province, North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a comprehensive oil and gas assessment of the Williston Basin, which encompasses more than 90 million acres in parts of North Dakota, eastern Montana, and northern South Dakota. The assessment is based on the geologic elements of each total petroleum system (TPS) defined in the province, including hydrocarbon source rocks (source-rock maturation, hydrocarbon generation, and migration), reservoir rocks (sequence stratigraphy and petrophysical properties), and hydrocarbon traps (trap formation and timing). Using this geologic framework, the USGS defined 11 TPS and 19 Assessment Units (AU).

South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2008

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Williston Basin Province of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota, 2008

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2005

Using tracers to evaluate streamflow gain-loss characteristics of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area, Delta County, Colorado, water year 2003

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, initiated a study to characterize streamflow gainloss in a reach of Terror Creek, in the vicinity of a mine-permit area planned for future coal mining. This report describes the methods of the study and includes results from a comparison of two sets of streamflow measurements using tracer techniques following the constant-rate injection method. Two measurement sets were used to characterize the streamflow gain-loss associated with reservoir-supplemented streamflow conditions and with natural base-flow conditions. A comparison of the measurement sets indicates that the streamflow gain-loss characteristics of the Terror Creek study reach are consistent between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. A substantial streamflow gain occurs between measurement locations 4 and 5 in both measurement sets, and streamflow is lost between measurement locations 5 and 7 (measurement set 1, measurement location 6 not visited) and 5 and 6 (measurement set 2). A comparison of the measurement sets above and below the mine-permit area (measurement locations 3 and 7) shows a consistent loss of 0.37 and 0.31 cubic foot per second (representing 5- and 12-percent streamflow losses normalized to measurement location 3) for measurement sets 1 and 2, respectively. This indicates that similar streamflow losses occur both during reservoir-supplemented and natural base-flow conditions, with a mean streamflow loss of 0.34 cubic foot per second for measurement sets 1 and 2. Findings from a previous investigation support the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 3 and 7 in this study. The findings from the previous investigation indicate a streamflow loss of 0.59 cubic foot per second occurs between these measurement locations. Statistical testing of the differences in streamflow between measurement locations 3 and 7 indicates that there is a discernible streamflow loss. The p-value of 0.0236 for the parametric paired t-test indicates that there is a 2.36-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference of 0.34 cubic foot per second if the population mean is zero. The p-value of 0.125 for the nonparametric exact Wilcoxon signed rank test indicates that there is a 12.5-percent probability of observing a sample mean difference this large if the population mean is zero. The similarity in streamflow gain-loss between measurement sets indicates that the process controlling streamflow may be the same between the two hydrologic conditions evaluated. Gains between measurement locations 4 and 5 may be related to hyporheic flow from tributaries that were dry during the study. No other obvious sources of surface water were identified during the investigation. The cause for the observed streamflow loss between measurement locations 5 and 6 is unknown but may be related to mapped local faulting, 100 years of coal mining in the area, and aquifer recharge.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Surface-water quantity and quality, aquatic biology, stream geomorphology, and groundwater-flow simulation for National Guard Training Center at Fort Indiantown Gap, Pennsylvania, 2002-05

Base-line and long-term monitoring of water resources of the National Guard Training Center at Fort Indiantown Gap in south-central Pennsylvania began in 2002. Results of continuous monitoring of streamflow and turbidity and monthly and stormflow water-quality samples from two continuous-record long-term stream sites, periodic collection of water-quality samples from five miscellaneous stream sites, and annual collection of biological data from 2002 to 2005 at 27 sites are discussed. In addition, results from a stream-geomorphic analysis and classification and a regional groundwater-flow model are included. Streamflow at the facility was above normal for the 2003 through 2005 water years and extremely high-flow events occurred in 2003 and in 2004. Water-quality samples were analyzed for nutrients, sediments, metals, major ions, pesticides, volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds, and explosives. Results indicated no exceedances for any constituent (except iron) above the primary and secondary drinking-water standards or health-advisory levels set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Iron concentrations were naturally elevated in the groundwater within the watershed because of bedrock lithology. The majority of the constituents were at or below the method detection limit. Sediment loads were dominated by precipitation due to the remnants of Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. More than 60 percent of the sediment load measured during the entire study was transported past the streamgage in just 2 days during that event. Habitat and aquatic-invertebrate data were collected in the summers of 2002-05, and fish data were collected in 2004. Although 2002 was a drought year, 2003-05 were above-normal flow years. Results indicated a wide diversity in invertebrates, good numbers of taxa (distinct organisms), and on the basis of a combination of metrics, the majority of the 27 sites indicated no or slight impairment. Fish-metric data from 25 sites indicated results similar to the invertebrate data. Stream classification based on evolution of the stream channels indicates about 94 percent of the channels were considered to be in equilibrium (type B or C channels), neither aggrading nor eroding. A regional, uncalibrated groundwater-flow model indicated the surface-water and groundwater-flow divides coincided. Because of folding of rock layers, groundwater was under confined conditions and nearly all the water leaves the facility via the streams.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Microgravity methods for characterization of groundwater-storage changes and aquifer properties in the karstic Madison aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota, 2009-12

A study of groundwater storage in the karstic Madison aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota using microgravity methods was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with West Dakota Water Development District, South Dakota Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and Lawrence County. Microgravity measurements from 2009 to 2012 were used to investigate groundwater-storage changes and effective porosity in unconfined areas of the Madison aquifer. Time-lapse microgravity surveys that use portable high-sensitivity absolute and relative gravimeters indicated temporal-gravity changes as a result of changing groundwater mass. These extremely precise measurements of gravity required characterization and removal of internal instrumental and external environmental effects on gravity from the raw data. The corrected data allowed groundwater-storage volume to be quantified with an accuracy of about plus or minus 0.5 foot of water per unit area of aquifer. Quantification of groundwater-storage change, coupled with water-level data from observation wells located near the focus areas, also was used to calculate the effective porosity at specific altitudes directly beneath gravity stations. Gravity stations were established on bedrock outcrops in three separate focus areas for this study. The first area, the Spring Canyon focus area, is located to the south of Rapid City with one gravity station on the rim of Spring Canyon near the area where Spring Creek sinks into the Madison aquifer. The second area, the Doty focus area, is located on outcrops of the Madison Limestone and Minnelusa Formation to the northwest of Rapid City, and consists of nine gravity stations. The third area, the Limestone Plateau focus area, consists of a single gravity station in the northwestern Black Hills located on an outcrop of the Madison Limestone. An absolute-gravity station, used to tie relative-gravity survey data together, was established on a relatively impermeable bedrock outcrop to minimize groundwater-storage change at the reference location. Data from the three focus areas allow for interpretation of groundwater-storage characteristics using microgravity measurements. Gravity measurements, together with water-level data from an observation well located 2 miles from the Spring Canyon focus area and measured streamflow in Spring Creek, provided evidence that rapid groundwater-storage change, responding to changes in sinking streamflow over the recharge area of the aquifer, occurred in the Madison aquifer directly beneath the gravity station at Spring Canyon. This phenomenon likely was a result of groundwater movement through caverns, conduits, and fractures, which are common in karst aquifers. Spatially and temporally separated microgravity data for the Doty focus area indicated horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of effective porosity for the Madison aquifer. One such example of this was indicated by water-level measurements at an observation well and gravity measurements at four gravity stations in the southeastern part of the Doty area, which were used to estimate effective porosity values ranging from greater than 0 to 0.18. A decrease in groundwater storage determined by microgravity measurements during the spring recharge period for five upgradient stations in the Doty focus area indicated the possibility of rapid release and downgradient cascading of perched groundwater. Evidence for similar phenomena was documented for Wind Cave and Brooks Cave in the Black Hills. Absolute-gravity measurements at the Limestone Plateau focus area confirmed the relation between water levels in an observation well and changes in groundwater storage. Comparison of these gravity measurements with water levels in a nearby observation well resulted in an effective porosity estimate of 0.02 for the Madison aquifer beneath the gravity station.

South Dakota↗

USGS2003

Numerical simulation of ground-water flow in La Crosse County, Wisconsin, and into nearby pools of the Mississippi River

This report describes a two-dimensional regional screening model and two associated three-dimensional ground-water flow models that were developed to simulate the ground-water flow systems in La Crosse County, Wisconsin, and Pool 8 of the Mississippi River. Although the geographic extents of the three-dimensional models were slightly different, both were derived from the same geologic interpretation and regional screening model, and their calibrations were performed concurrently. The objectives of the La Crosse County (LCC) model were to assess the effects of recent (1990s) and potential future ground-water withdrawals and to provide a tool suitable to evaluate the effects of proposed water-management programs. The Pool 8 model objectives were to quantify the magnitude and distribution of ground-water flow into the Pool. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey developed the models cooperatively. The report describes: 1) the conceptual hydrogeologic model; 2) the methods used in simulating flow; 3) model calibration and sensitivity analysis; and 4) model results, such as simulation of predevelopment conditions and location and magnitude of ground-water discharge into Pool 8 of the Mississippi. Three aquifer units underlie the model area: 1) a shallow unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifer; 2) an upper bedrock aquifer, composed of Cambrian and Ordovician sandstone and dolomite; and 3) a lower bedrock aquifer composed of Cambrian sandstone of the Eau Claire Formation and the Mount Simon Formation. A shale layer that is part of the Eau Claire Formation forms a confining unit separating the upper and lower bedrock aquifers. This confining unit is absent in the Black River and parts of the La Crosse and Mississippi River valleys. Precambrian crystalline basement rock forms the lower base of the ground-water flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey ground-water flow model code, MODFLOW, was used to develop the La Crosse County (LCC) and Pool 8 ground-water flow models. Boundary conditions for the MODFLOW model were extracted from an analytic element screening model of the regional flow system surrounding La Crosse County. Model input was obtained from previously published and unpublished geologic and hydrologic data. Pumpages from municipal and high-capacity wells were also simulated. Model calibration included a comparison of modeled and field-measured water levels and field-measured base flows to simulated stream flows. At calibration, most measured water levels compared favorably to model-calculated water levels. Simulated streamflows at two targets were within 3 percent of estimated measured base flows. Mass balance results from the LCC and Pool 8 models indicated that 63 to 74 percent of ground water was from recharge and 19 to 26 percent was from surface-water sources. Ground-water flow out of the model was to rivers and streams (85 to 87 percent) and pumping wells (11 and 13 percent). The model demonstrates the effects of development on ground water in the study area. The maximum simulated water-level decline in the city of La Crosse metropolitan area is 9.3 feet. Simulated stream losses are similar to the amount of ground water pumped by wells. This indicates that ground water withdrawn by La Crosse County wells is water that under predevelopment conditions discharged to streams and lakes. The models provide estimates of the locations and amount of ground-water flow into Pool 8 and the southern portion of Pool 7 of the Mississippi River. Ground-water discharges into all areas of the pools, except along the eastern shore in the vicinity of the city of La Crosse and immediately downgradient from lock and dam 7 and 8. Ground-water flow into the pools is generally greatest around the perimeter with decreasing amounts away from the perimeter. An area of relatively high ground-water discharge extends out towards the center of Pool 7 from the upper reaches of the pool and may

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Converting nonstandard fish sampling data to standardized data

Fishery biologists spend considerable effort over multiple years collecting data on fish population and community status using a particular sampling method or set of methods. However, new (and often more effective) sampling methods and technologies are continuously being developed. To incorporate these new sampling techniques, fishery biologists need a means for converting sample data collected using old methods so they can be compared with data collected using new methods. Similarly, fishery biologists often need a means to compare fish sample data collected using the same method over time (e.g., from year to year) and space (e.g., between sample sites). If fish abundance, species presence, or richness are estimated using an unbiased statistical estimator, the estimates can be validly compared, even if the fish sample data were collected with different methods. However, if unbiased statistical estimators were not used, biologists need methods for adjusting fish sampling data collected using different methods or using the same method collected under different sampling conditions. In this chapter, we describe and provide examples of statistical techniques for converting nonstandard fish sampling data to standardized data and for making comparisons of fish sampling data collected at different times or at different locations. We define standard fish sampling data as data collected using the standardized fish sampling methods described throughout this book. Any other sampling methods and associated data are thus defined as nonstandard. Before delving into the details of the statistical modeling techniques, we describe the nature of fish sample data, their uses, and their limitations. Catch-effort measures, such as relative abundance and catch per unit effort (CPUE), are more formally described as indices. Here, we define an index as any measure or count of a species or community (e.g., species richness) based on direct observation without an estimate of the ability to count individuals or species. Indices have some very desirable characteristics for use in fisheries research and management. In general (but not always), indices require less effort to collect and are usually more precise than unbiased population estimators (e.g., CPUE versus capture–recapture estimates of abundance). The proper use of indices for assessment of fish populations or communities, however, requires that the relationship between an index and the true value (e.g., fish density, species richness) is relatively constant (1) across the observable range of true values, (2) through time when evaluating trends at a single location, and (3) across space when making comparisons among locations.

Book chapter↗

USGS2008

Using open hole and cased-hole resistivity logs to monitor gas hydrate dissociation during a thermal test in the mallik 5L-38 research well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada

Gas hydrates, which are naturally occurring ice-like combinations of gas and water, have the potential to provide vast amounts of natural gas from the world's oceans and polar regions. However, producing gas economically from hydrates entails major technical challenges. Proposed recovery methods such as dissociating or melting gas hydrates by heating or depressurization are currently being tested. One such test was conducted in northern Canada by the partners in the Mallik 2002 Gas Hydrate Production Research Well Program. This paper describes how resistivity logs were used to determine the size of the annular region of gas hydrate dissociation that occurred around the wellbore during the thermal test in the Mallik 5L-38 well. An open-hole logging suite, run prior to the thermal test, included array induction, array laterolog, nuclear magnetic resonance and 1.1-GHz electromagnetic propagation logs. The reservoir saturation tool was run both before and after the thermal test to monitor formation changes. A cased-hole formation resistivity log was run after the test.Baseline resistivity values in each formation layer (Rt) were established from the deep laterolog data. The resistivity in the region of gas hydrate dissociation near the wellbore (Rxo) was determined from electromagnetic propagation and reservoir saturation tool measurements. The radius of hydrate dissociation as a function of depth was then determined by means of iterative forward modeling of cased-hole formation resistivity tool response. The solution was obtained by varying the modeled dissociation radius until the modeled log overlaid the field log. Pretest gas hydrate production computer simulations had predicted that dissociation would take place at a uniform radius over the 13-ft test interval. However, the post-test resistivity modeling showed that this was not the case. The resistivity-derived dissociation radius was greatest near the outlet of the pipe that circulated hot water in the wellbore, where the highest temperatures were recorded. The radius was smallest near the center of the test interval, where a conglomerate section with low values of porosity and permeability inhibited dissociation. The free gas volume calculated from the resistivity-derived dissociation radii yielded a value within 20 per cent of surface gauge measurements. These results show that the inversion of resistivity measurements holds promise for use in future gas hydrate monitoring. ?? 2008 Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log Analysts. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1990

Computational open-channel hydraulics for movable-bed problems

As a major branch of computational hydraulics, notable advances have been made in numerical modeling of unsteady open-channel flow since the beginning of the computer age. According to the broader definition and scope of 'computational hydraulics,' the basic concepts and technology of modeling unsteady open-channel flow have been systematically studied previously. As a natural extension, computational open-channel hydraulics for movable-bed problems are addressed in this paper. The introduction of the multimode method of characteristics (MMOC) has made the modeling of this class of unsteady flows both practical and effective. New modeling techniques are developed, thereby shedding light on several aspects of computational hydraulics. Some special features of movable-bed channel-flow simulation are discussed here in the same order as given by the author in the fixed-bed case.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2005

Recent U.S. Geological Survey applications of Lidar

As lidar (light detection and ranging) technology matures, more applications are being explored by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists throughout the Nation, both in collaboration with other Federal agencies and alone in support of USGS natural-hazards research (Crane et al., 2004). As the technology continues to improve and evolve, USGS scientists are finding new and unique methods to use and represent high-resolution lidar data, and new ways to make these data and derived information publicly available. Different lidar sensors and configurations have offered opportunities to use high-resolution elevation data for a variety of projects across all disciplines of the USGS. The following examples are just a few of the diverse projects in the USGS where lidar data is being used.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2003

Determining temperature and thermal properties for heat-based studies of surface-water ground-water interactions: Appendix A of Heat as a tool for studying the movement of ground water near streams (Cir1260)

Advances in electronics leading to improved sensor technologies, large-scale circuit integration, and attendant miniaturization have created new opportunities to use heat as a tracer of subsurface flow. Because nature provides abundant thermal forcing at the land surface, heat is particularly useful in studying stream-groundwater interactions. This appendix describes methods for obtaining the thermal data needed in heat-based investigations of shallow subsurface flow.

Report↗

USGS2021

Effectiveness of rapid 'ōhi'a death management strategies at a focal disease outbreak on Hawai'i Island

The ongoing spread of rapid ‘ōhi‘a death (ROD) in the Hawaiian Islands threatens the long-term sustainability of ‘ōhi‘a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha) forests throughout the state. First identified in the Puna district of Hawai‘i Island in 2014, the disease caused by the novel fungi Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia has now spread island-wide and was recently detected on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui. The leading hypothesis for the spread of ROD is through airborne ambrosia beetle frass particles that contain viable Ceratocystis propagules, thus management efforts focus on containing this frass. At the time of this study (2017–2018), the Waipunalei site was the northernmost outbreak of ROD on Hawai‘i Island. The focal nature of the outbreak and accessibility of the location provided the opportunity to monitor the effectiveness of two types of proposed management methods to reduce the airborne spread of potentially infective ambrosia beetle frass: tree felling and insecticide treatments. We placed 23 passive environmental samplers (PES), which monitored for airborne frass and wood particles containing C. lukuohia and C. huliohia in a grid that spanned the outbreak area over 22 weeks. Cross-vane panel traps with 1:1 methanol:ethanol lures were attached to nine of the PES to document wood-boring ambrosia and cerambycid beetle populations during the latter three months of the study. Monitoring with PES began three weeks before management and continued for one month after the last infected trees were felled. Glass microscope slides from the 23 PES were examined for airborne ambrosia beetle frass and wood particles by microscopy. DNA was extracted from the slides and tested by qPCR (quantitative polymerase chain reaction) for C. lukuohia and C. huliohia. We also investigated the correlation of beetle gallery counts with tree height and tested the efficacy of Bifen I/T insecticide (active ingredient: bifenthrin 7.9%) for preventing beetle attacks on the cut surface of ‘ōhi‘a bolts (tree stem sections). Beetle trapping data revealed that the area supports a diverse community of wood-boring beetles, some of which likely attack ‘ōhi‘a and may facilitate the spread of ROD. The number of beetle galleries on felled ‘ōhi‘a trees decreased linearly as tree height increased. We also observed significantly fewer beetle attacks on Bifen I/T treated ‘ōhi‘a bolts than non-treated bolts, but gallery formation nearly ceased in both treated and control bolts by week three. Ceratocystis lukuohia DNA was detected twenty-six times and C. huliohia was detected five times in the PES throughout this study. DNA detections were correlated to frass and wood counts, and the number of felled trees were correlated to wood particle counts but not frass counts. Both the timing and distribution of detections across the sampling grid indicate that tree felling may have reduced airborne detections of Ceratocystis DNA soon after tree felling was completed. A subsequent increase in detections after tree felling ceased may indicate that incomplete removal of infected trees and the appearance of new infections in previously asymptomatic trees could have allowed airborne detections of potentially infectious fungal propagules to once again increase.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Investigation of otolith microstructure and composition for identification of rearing strategies and associated Baker Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) smolt production, Washington, 2016–17

Baker River (Washington, USA) sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) are a recovering Puget Sound stock that are aided by trap-and-haul and hatchery programs to mitigate for the presence of a high head dam. The relative contribution of hatchery and natural adults to overall production of smolts and recruits is unknown. The ability to identify three different sockeye production groups (natural production, artificial incubation, and artificial spawning beach) within the Baker system is crucial to moving forward with management goals. The examination of otoliths was proposed as a technical tool for improved understanding and management of Baker sockeye rebuilding efforts. Otoliths were chosen as they provide a chronological record on an individual fish basis and have been shown to identify fish origin through both otolith microstructure and chemistry. The goal of this pilot project was to determine the feasibility of assigning sockeye to their production source based on otolith analysis. A variety of methods were employed and compared for accuracy of group assignment. The maximum overall accuracy capable of attainment was 88.57 percent, however complete confidence (100 percent) in the separation of natural production from artificial production was reached through the analysis of trace elements alone. Some segregation of the two artificial production groups was reached through analysis of a few specific trace elements (magnesium, manganese, and zinc). This confidence in assignment for the artificial production groups was aided by a two-step process of combining trace elements with microstructure. The Sr isotope ratios supported the trace element findings but did not help to boost the overall level of confidence in the separation of production groups. Based upon the results from this preliminary investigation, one could choose a statistically sound, efficient, and cost-effective use of otoliths as a tool for discriminating between the sockeye production groups of the Baker Lake system.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Hydrogeologic characteristics of the St. Croix River basin, Minnesota and Wisconsin: Implications for the susceptibility of ground water to potential contamination

Population growth in the St. Croix River Basin in Minnesota and Wisconsin has intensified concerns of county resource managers and the National Park Service, which is charged with protecting the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway, about the potential for ground-water contamination in the basin. This report describes a previously developed method that was adapted to illustrate potential ground-water-contamination susceptibility in the St. Croix River Basin. The report also gives an estimate of ground-water-residence time and surface-water/ground-water interaction as related to natural attenuation and movement of contaminants in five tributary basins. A ground-water-contamination-susceptibility map was adapted from a state-wide map of Wisconsin to the St. Croix River Basin by use of well-driller construction records and regional maps of aquifer properties in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Measures of various subsurface properties were combined to generate a spatial index of susceptibility. The subjective index method developed for the State of Wisconsin by Schmidt (1987) 1 was not derived from analyses of water-quality data or physical processes. Nonetheless, it was adapted for this report to furnish a seamless map across state boundaries that would be familiar to many resource managers. Following this method, areas most susceptible to contamination appear to have coarse-grained sediments (sands or gravels) and shallow water tables or are underlain by carbonate-bedrock aquifers. The least susceptible areas appear to have fine-grained sediments and deep water tables. If an aquifer becomes contaminated, the ground-water-residence time can affect potential natural attenuation along the ground-water-flow path. Mean basin ground-water-residence times were computed for the Apple, Kettle, Kinnickinnic, Snake and Sunrise River Basins, which are tributary basins to the St. Croix Basin, by use of average aquifer properties of saturated thickness, porosity, and recharge rates. The Apple River Basin had the shortest mean ground-water-residence times (20–120 years), owing largely to the moderate saturated thickness and high recharge rate in the basin. The Kinnickinnic and Sunrise River Basins had the longest mean residence times (60–350 and 70–390 years, respectively) chiefly because of the relatively large saturated thickness of the basins. Owing to limitations of the residence-time calculations, actual ground-water-residence times will vary around the mean values within each basin and may range from days or weeks in karst carbonate aquifers to millennia in deep confined sandstone aquifers. Areas of relatively short residence time (less than the median residence time in each basin) were identified by use of ground-water-flow models for each of the five tributary basins. Results of simulations show that these areas, in which contaminants may have relatively less time for natural attenuation along the short flow paths, generally occur near streams and rivers where ground water discharges to the surface. Finally, the ground-water-flow models were used to simulate ground-water/surface-water interaction in the five tributary basins. Results of simulations show that some lakes and reservoirs leak surface water into the ground-water-flow system on their downgradient side, where the surface-water outflow has been restricted by a dam or a naturally constricted outlet. These locations are noteworthy because contaminated surface waters could potentially enter the ground-water-flow system at these locations.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations. The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area. The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

Georgia↗

USGS2025

Fluvial sediment dynamics in the Shoshone River and tributaries around Willwood Dam, Park County, Wyoming

Sedimentation affects many of the aging reservoirs in the United States. Dams and water diversions from rivers have been central elements of infrastructure supporting agricultural irrigation in the arid and semiarid regions of the Western United States for more than a century. The Willwood Irrigation District diversion dam (hereafter referred to as “Willwood Dam”) in Park County, Wyoming, is approximately 12 miles northeast of Cody, Wyo.; has a structural height of 70 feet; and impounds the Shoshone River for diversion into the Willwood Canal. Willwood Dam is part of a larger irrigation scheme supported by water storage in the much larger Buffalo Bill Dam, which is approximately 20 miles upstream. In October 2016, renovation construction activities at Willwood Dam and the Willwood Canal caused an unplanned evacuation of nearly 96,000 cubic yards of fine sediment. The fine sediment release in 2016 raised concerns that ongoing sediment management at Willwood Dam could impose limits on the long-term health of the aquatic ecosystem and fish populations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality and Willwood Work Groups 2 and 3, initiated an investigation of the dynamics of sediment transport in the Shoshone River and selected tributaries between Buffalo Bill Dam and Willwood Dam. The goal of the study was to quantify sediment transport into and out of Willwood Dam on an annual, seasonal, and event basis to better understand the relative quantities of sediment coming from natural sources and human activities on the landscape. The study ran from March 2019 through October 2021 and used observations of streamflow, turbidity, and acoustic backscatter collected at streamgages upstream and downstream from Willwood Dam to quantify suspended-sediment loads into and out of the dam during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation-runoff events, and deliberate sediment releases. Each tributary’s relative contribution to the sediment load upstream from Willwood Dam was examined using discrete measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and bedload during irrigation and fallow seasons, precipitation events, and stable conditions. Analysis of daily precipitation and temperature data indicated that conditions in the study area during the 2019 agricultural year were wetter and colder than period of record normal, and drier and near normal temperatures for the 2020 and 2021 agricultural years. Not all sediment load records between 2019 and 2021 are complete because of rejected observations (outliers), instrument failures or fouling, and instrument removal for calibrations. Statistical modeling of suspended-sediment concentration using paired values of turbidity and acoustic backscatter produced four models that, after refinement, had coefficients of determination indicating that more than 84 percent of the variance was explained by either turbidity or acoustic backscatter. A system of rules was developed to select the model predictions based on the seasonal operations of Willwood Dam, assumptions about the grain sizes mobilized during these operations, and assumed accuracy of the models at the downstream streamgage (Shoshone River below Willwood Dam, near Ralston, Wyo. [streamgage 06284010]) under different operational conditions. The sediment budget between upstream and downstream estimates of loads was interpreted using the mean predicted values bound by their respective model prediction intervals. When mean predicted loads of one streamgage were contained in the prediction intervals of the other streamgage, and vice-versa, difference in the sediment budget were interpreted as “indeterminate.” Modeled sediment load balances demonstrated the depositional and erosional behaviors expected from the conceptual model of dam operations whereby sediment tends to accumulate during irrigation seasons when the dam is spilling over the top, and sediment tends to evacuate during the fallow seasons when it is flowing through the sluice gates at the base of the dam. The sediment load calculations using the rules-based model criteria indicated that between 14,200 and 380,000 tons of suspended sediment moved through the Shoshone River around Willwood Dam during the irrigation seasons of 2019, 2020, and 2021; 380,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported during the cool, wet year of 2019, and 14,200 tons of suspended sediment were transported in 2020, which was relatively dry. During fallow seasons 2019, 2020, and 2021, which had fewer complete records, between 1,140 and 106,000 tons of suspended sediment was estimated to have moved through the river. For all seasons except fallow season 2022, the models estimated that more sediment was released from the dam than entered the dam, but the modeled mean loads at each streamgage were nearly always within the prediction intervals of each other, making the sediment balance indeterminant. Examination of suspended-sediment loads during irrigation seasons indicated that between 65 and 85 percent of fine sediment was transported during annual high flows and storm events, with the remainder transported during steady, lower streamflows. Examination of suspended loads during fallow seasons indicated that deliberate sediment releases through Willwood Dam accounted for between 39 and 67 percent of the total sediment moved during the fallow seasons. Deliberate sediment releases from Willwood Dam had estimated net exports of between 1,360 and 22,400 tons. Between August 2017 and July 2023, suspended-sediment concentration and bedload sediment samples were collected from 9 tributaries to the Shoshone River during 137 sampling events, including stable and precipitation-runoff conditions. During irrigation season precipitation events, the mean total sediment yields ranged from 0.33 to 9.51 tons per day per square mile; during fallow season precipitation events, the mean total yields ranged from 0.04 to 0.95 ton per day per square mile. The mean total sediment yield per unit area across all samples at each tributary site ranged from 0.26 to 3.08 tons per day per square mile. Bedload was a minor fraction of the total load, constituting a mean of 4 percent across all samples; 3 and 6 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during irrigation season; and 3 and 1 percent for events and nonevents, respectively, during the fallow season. With the exception of one tributary, Dry Creek, these mean yield values were within the range of watershed-scale background sediment yield values estimated from reservoir surveys and previous suspended-sediment studies. Imagery from irrigation seasons 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2022 was used to determine the planimetric backwater extent of the pool area in the Shoshone River behind Willwood Dam to identify any changes in sediment storage. Active river channel widths in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam were all similar between years except 2015, which was determined to be statistically different from all other years. Bathymetric data taken in the pool behind Willwood Dam during three different surveys between November 2017 and April 2022 indicated no statistically significant differences in bed elevations between the years. Results from the planimetric and bathymetric survey data provide multiple lines of evidence indicating that sediment did not accumulate behind the dam within the error of the methods used. Examination of how precipitation affects sediment transport in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam indicated that accumulated rainfall from the natural runoff events captured during the study period varied from a trace to as much as 4.26 inches, with associated predicted suspended-sediment loads varying from 112 to 232,000 tons of suspended sediment. The behavior of the sediment loads relative to accumulated precipitation did not appear to change depending on irrigation or fallow season. A model of suspended-sediment concentrations relative to the 2-day accumulated precipitation indicated that suspended-sediment concentrations in the Shoshone River upstream from Willwood Dam increased exponentially for accumulations of 0.3 inch or more; such storms accounted for 10 percent or less of precipitation events observed during the 1981 to 2018 period of record. The gaps in records, precision of the instrumentation, and large variation in grain sizes in suspended-sediment mixtures downstream from the dam made closing the sediment budgets for most seasons unattainable. The biggest recent change in sediment storage measured using the planimetric area of deposits behind Willwood Dam took place between 2015 and 2017. The main event between these two measurements was the installation of new Willwood Canal gates in October 2016, which resulted in the large unplanned sediment release. Because the sediment budgets were nearly always indeterminate and the planimetric and bathymetric data indicated little change in the bed and bank material, it is likely that the change in sediment storage behind the dam during the study period was small relative to the precision of the statistical models and other uncertainties. This body of evidence suggests that, averaged during the 3-year study period, no major changes in storage took place, and that the current operations may be keeping storage at near-equilibrium. This condition could have been initiated because the middle sluice gate has now been operational since 2014, and the sediment release in October 2016 evacuated a large amount of legacy sediment from storage. Although the uncertainties are large, sluicing events allow for controlled releases of sediment that contributed to the near equilibrium conditions observed over an annual basis during this study.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor

Context Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Objectives (1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have higher or lower wildfire risk than existing WUI. Methods We projected the spatial pattern of the WUI and its associated wildfire risk from 2005 to 2050 at 90-m spatial resolution and 5-year intervals in Colorado Front Range using CHANGE, a landscape change model that simulates land cover and land use change, natural vegetation dynamics, and wildfire in a unified framework. A total of four scenarios from a factorial design with static versus changing WUI and static versus changing fire regimes were simulated to examine the effects of WUI expansion and climate-driven fire regime change on burned area in the WUI. Results Both WUI expansion and fire regime change contributed to the increase of burned WUI, but fire regime change had a stronger influence. The effects of WUI expansion and fire regime change had a combined influence greater than the sum of their individual effects. This interaction was a result of projected WUI expansion into regions of higher wildfire risk than existing WUI. Conclusions The human footprint will continue to expand into wildland areas and must be considered along with climate effects when assessing the impacts of changing fire regimes in future landscapes.

Landscape Ecology↗