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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Flow modification in the Nation’s streams and rivers

This report summarizes a national assessment of flowing waters conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project and addresses several pressing questions about the modification of natural flows in streams and rivers. The assessment is based on the integration, modeling, and synthesis of monitoring data collected by the USGS and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at more than 7,000 streams and rivers across the conterminous United States from 1980 to 2014. Key findings include the following. First, flow in many of the Nation’s streams and rivers is different from what it would be under natural conditions. In particular, low flows are more frequent, are of shorter duration, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. In addition, high flows have been reduced in magnitude, are of shorter duration, are less frequent, and vary less from one year to the next than they would naturally. Other characteristics of natural flows also have been modified. Second, over the last 60 years (1955–2014), climatic trends have caused a change of 50 percent or more in one or more streamflow attributes at two-thirds of climate-sensitive streamgaging sites. However, these climate-induced changes have been less influential on streamflow modification than have land and water-management practices. Third, in every region assessed, streamflow modification was associated with reduced ecological health, as indicated by two biological communities—invertebrates and fish. Biological communities were increasingly likely to be impaired (defined as having lost a statistically significant number of species) in streams with flows most different from natural conditions. Finally, several case studies are presented that illustrate viable management strategies for balancing the water needs of people and ecosystems.

Circular↗

USGS2001

Systems identification and the adaptive management of waterfowl in the United States

Waterfowl management in the United States is one of the more visible conservation success stories in the United States. It is authorized and supported by appropriate legislative authorities, based on large-scale monitoring programs, and widely accepted by the public. The process is one of only a limited number of large-scale examples of effective collaboration between research and management, integrating scientific information with management in a coherent framework for regulatory decision-making. However, harvest management continues to face some serious technical problems, many of which focus on sequential identification of the resource system in a context of optimal decision-making. The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation of adaptive harvest management, the approach currently in use in the United States for regulatory decision-making. We lay out the legal and institutional framework for adaptive harvest management and provide a formal description of regulatory decision-making in terms of adaptive optimization. We discuss some technical and institutional challenges in applying adaptive harvest management and focus specifically on methods of estimating resource states for linear resource systems.

Wildlife Biology↗

USGS2014

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1 mussel ) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1 discharge ; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1 mussel and PC1 discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Integrating multiple data sources and multi-scale land-cover data to model the distribution of a declining amphibian

Determining the spatial scale at which landscape features influence population persistence is an important task for conservation planning. One challenge is that sampling biases confound factors that influence species occurrence and survey effort. Recent developments in Point Process Models (PPMs) enable researchers to disentangle the sampling process from ecological drivers of species' distributions. Land-cover change is a driver of decline for the western spadefoot (Spea hammondii), which has been extirpated from much of its range in California. Assessing this species' status requires information on the current distribution of suitable habitat within its historical range, but little is known about the effect of the landscape surrounding breeding ponds on spadefoot occurrence. Critically, surveys for western spadefoots often occur along roads, potentially biasing data used to fit species distribution models. We created PPMs integrating historical presence/non-detection and presence-only data for western spadefoots and land-cover data at multiple spatial scales to model the distribution of this species while removing the influence of sampling bias. There was spatial sampling bias in presence-only data; records were more likely to be reported near roads and urban centers and PPMs that removed sampling bias outperformed models that ignored sampling bias. The occurrence of western spadefoots was positively related to the proportion of grassland within a 2000 m buffer. The remaining habitat for western spadefoots is largely found in the foothills surrounding California's Central Valley. Our study illustrates how PPMs can improve projections of habitat suitability and our understanding of the drivers of species' distributions.

California↗

USGS2013

Effects of sex pheromones and sexual maturation on locomotor activity in female sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus)

Synchronization of male and female locomotor rhythmicity can play a vital role in ensuring reproductive success. Several physiological and environmental factors alter these locomotor rhythms. As sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus, progress through their life cycle, their locomotor activity rhythm changes multiple times. The goal of this study was to elucidate the activity patterns of adult female sea lamprey during the sexual maturation process and discern the interactions of these patterns with exposure to male pheromones. During these stages, preovulated and ovulated adult females are exposed to sex pheromone compounds, which are released by spermiated males and attract ovulated females to the nest for spawning. The locomotor behavior of adult females was monitored in a natural stream with a passive integrated tag responder system as they matured, and they were exposed to a sex pheromone treatment (spermiated male washings) or a control (prespermiated male washings). Results showed that, dependent on the hour of day, male sex pheromone compounds reduce total activity (p < 0.05) and cause increases in activity during several daytime hours in preovulated and ovulated females. These results are one of the first examples of how sex pheromones modulate a locomotor rhythm in a vertebrate, and they suggest that the interaction between maturity stage and sex pheromone exposure contributes to the differential locomotor rhythms found in adult female sea lamprey. This phenomenon may contribute to the reproductive synchrony of mature adults, thus increasing reproductive success in this species.

Journal of Biological Rhythms↗

USGS2004

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects

A long‐standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non‐native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense‐free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non‐native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century. Using a census of all 58 non‐native conifer‐specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects). We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non‐native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non‐native herbivorous insects. Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non‐native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2012

The macroecology of sustainability

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

PLoS Biology↗

USGS2005

GIS compilation of data collected from the Pulley Ridge Deep Coral Reef region

Pulley Ridge is a chain of drowned barrier islands that extends almost 200 km in 60-90 m water depths (Fig. 1). This drowned ridge is located on the Florida Platform in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico about 250 km west of Cape Sable, Florida (Jarrett and others, 2005). These islands formed during the early Holocene marine transgression approximately 12,000 - 14,000 years before present, and were then submerged by sea level rise and preserved near the outer edge of the Florida Platform. The southern portion of Pulley Ridge is the focus of this study. This area hosts zooxanthellate scleractinian corals, green, red and brown macro algae, and a mix of deep and typically shallow-water tropical fishes. This largely photosynthetic community is unique in that it thrives with less than 5% of the light typically associated with shallow-water reefs with similar fauna. Several factors help to account for the existence of this unique deep-water community. First, the underlying drowned barrier islands provide both elevated topography and lithified substrate for the establishment of the hardbottom community. Second, the region is commonly bathed by the Loop Current, which brings relatively clear and warm water to this area. Third, the ridge's position on the continental shelf places it within the thermocline which provides nutrients to the reef during upwelling (Halley and others, 2003). The USGS has made two proposals to resource managers for the designation of marine protected areas based on the geophysical and photographic data in this report. The proposals describe areas that may require some regulatory protection of marine life utilizing the sea floor (Fig. 1). The first proposal is that the area of greatest hermatypic coral cover (Fig. 1) is considered for future management actions and designated a Habitat Area of Particular Concern (HAPC) by the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council. HAPCs are identified on the basis of habitat level considerations: The importance of the ecological function provided by the habitat. The extent to which the habitat is sensitive to human-induced environmental degradation. Whether and to what extent development activities are or will be stressing the habitat. The rarity of the habitat type. The second proposed area is for Coral Essential Fish Habitat (CEFH, Fig. 1). CEFHs are defined as "those waters and substrate necessary to corals for spawning, breeding, feeding, or growth to maturity." The following definitions are provided for clarification: waters is defined as "aquatic areas and their associated physical, chemical, and biological properties that are used by corals" substrate means "sediment, hard bottom, structures underlying the waters, and associated biological communities" necessary means "the habitat required to support a sustainable population and the managed species' contribution to a healthy ecosystem" spawning,breeding, feeding, or growth to maturity covers the full life cycle of a species. The CEFH shown in Figure 1 is the greatest coral cover in the region as determined by the bottom photo and video transects acquired during this study. This report presents the geophysical and photographic data that were collected to describe the surficial and shallow subsurface geologic framework of the area where these deep-water corals are known to occur. The data types include multibeam bathymetry, sidescan-sonar imagery, images of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom photographs. In addition, the tracklines for the seismic data, locations of bottom photographs and camera drifts, and tracklines along which submersible and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) observations were made are contained in the GIS files accompanying this report. Unfortunately, video footage from the camera drifts, submersible, and ROV cruises is not available on this DVD due to the quantity of data. The bottom photograph data set has been previously published (Cross and others, 2004), however it is included in this publication in an effort to integrate the varying data sets in one location. This integration is accomplished through the GIS data included on this DVD.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on water quality in the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds Aquifer, south-central Kansas, 2011–14

The Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas is aprimary water source for the city of Wichita. The Equus Beds aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project was developed to help the city of Wichita meet increasing current (2016) and future water demands. The Equus Beds ASR project pumps water out of the Little Arkansas River during above-base flow conditions, treats it using drinking-water quality standards as a guideline, and recharges it into the Equus Beds aquifer for later use. Phase II of the Equus Beds ASR project currently (2016) includes a river intake facility and a surface-water treatment facility with a 30 million gallon per day capacity. Water diverted from the Little Arkansas River is delivered to an adjacent presedimentation basin for solids removal. Subsequently, waste from the surface-water treatment facility and the presedimentation basin is returned to the Little Arkansas River through a residuals return line. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, developed and implemented a hydrobiological monitoring program as part of the ASR project to characterize and quantify the effects of aquifer storage and recovery activities on the Little Arkansas River and Equus Beds aquifer water quality. Data were collected from 2 surface-water sites (one upstream and one downstream from the residuals return line), 1 residuals return line site, and 2 groundwater well sites (each having a shallow and deep part): the Little Arkansas River upstream from the ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (upstream surface-water site 375350097262800), about 0.03 mile (mi) upstream from the residuals return line site; the Little Arkansas River near Sedgwick, Kans. (downstream surface-water site 07144100), about 1.68 mi downstream from the residuals return line site; discharge from the Little Arkansas River ASR facility near Sedgwick, Kansas (residuals return line site 375348097262800); 25S 01 W 07BCCC01 SMW–S11 near CW36 (MW–7 shallow groundwater well site 375327097285401); 25S01 W 07BCCC02 DMW–S10 near CW36 (MW–7 deep groundwater well site 375327097285402); 25S 01W 07BCCA01 SMW–S13 near CW36 (MW–8 shallow groundwater well site 375332097284801); and 25S 01W 07BCCA02 DMW–S14 near CW36 (MW–8 deep groundwater well site 375332097284802). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, assessed the effects of the ASR Phase II facility residuals return line discharges on stream quality of the Little Arkansas River by measuring continuous physicochemical properties and collecting discrete water-quality and sediment samples for about 2 years pre- (January 2011 through April 2013) and post-ASR (May 2013 through December 2014) Phase II facility operation upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility. Additionally, habitat variables were quantified and macroinvertebrate and fish communities were sampled upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility during the study period. To assess the effects of aquifer recharge on Equus Beds groundwater quality, continuous physicochemical properties were measured and discrete water-quality samples were collected before and during the onset of Phase II aquifer recharge in two (shallow and deep) groundwater wells. Little Arkansas River streamflow was about 10 times larger after the facility began operating because of greater rainfall. Residuals return line release volumes were a very minimal proportion (0.06 percent) of downstream streamflow volume during the months the ASR facility was operating. Upstream and downstream continuously measured water temperature and dissolved oxygen median differences were smaller post-ASR than pre-ASR. Turbidity generally was smaller at the downstream site throughout the study period and decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging despite a median residuals return line turbidity that was about an order of magnitude larger than the median turbidity at the downstream site. Upstream and downstream continuously measured turbidity median differences were larger post-ASR than pre-ASR. Median post-ASR continuously measured nitrite plus nitrate and continuously computed total suspended solids and suspended-sediment concentrations were smaller than pre-ASR likely because of higher streamflows and dilution; whereas, median continuously computed dissolved and total organic carbon concentrations were larger likely because of higher streamflows and runoff conditions. None of the discretely measured water-quality constituents (dissolved and suspended solids, primary ions, suspended sediment, nutrients, carbon, trace elements, viral and bacterial indicators, and pesticides) in surface water were significantly different between the upstream and downstream sites after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging; however, pre-ASR calcium, sodium, hardness, manganese, and arsenate concentrations were significantly larger at the upstream site, which indicates that some water-quality conditions at the upstream and downstream sites were more similar post-ASR. Most of the primary constituents that make up dissolved solids decreased at both sites after the ASR Phase II facility began operation. Discretely collected total suspended solids concentrations were similar between the upstream and downstream sites before the facility began operating but were about 27 percent smaller at the downstream site after the facility began operating, despite the total suspended solids concentrations in the residuals return line being 15 times larger than the downstream site. Overall habitat scores were indicative of suboptimal conditions upstream and downstream from the ASR Phase II facility throughout the study period. Substrate fouling and sediment deposition mean scores indicated marginal conditions at the upstream and downstream sites during the study period, demonstrating that sediment deposition was evident pre- and post-ASR and no substantial changes in these habitat characteristics were noted after the ASR Phase II facility began discharging. Macroinvertebrate community composition (evaluated using functional feeding, behavioral, and tolerance metrics) generally was similar between sites during the study period. Fewer macroinvertebrate metrics were significant between the upstream and downstream sites post-ASR (6) than pre-ASR (14), which suggests that macroinvertebate communities were more similar after the ASR facility began discharging. Upstream-downstream comparisons in macroinvertebrate aquatic-life-support metrics had no significant differences for the post-ASR time period and neither site was fully supporting for any of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment aquatic-life-support metrics (Macroinvertebrate Biotic Index; Kansas Biotic Index with tolerances for nutrients and oxygen-demanding substances; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EPT] richness; and percentage of EPT species). Overall, using macroinvertebrate aquatic life-support criteria from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, upstream and downstream sites were classified as partially supporting before and after the onset of ASR facility operations. Fish community trophic status and tolerance groups generally were similar among sites during the study period. Fish community Little Arkansas River Basin Index of Biotic Integrity scores at the upstream and downstream sites were indicative of fair-to-good conditions before the facility began operating and decreased to fair conditions after the facility began operating. Groundwater physicochemical changes concurrent with the beginning of recharge operations at the Sedgwick basin were more pronounced in shallow groundwater. No constituent concentrations in the pre-recharge period in comparison to the post-recharge period increased to concentrations exceeding drinking water regulations; however, nitrate decreased significantly from a pre-recharge exceedance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level to a post recharge nonexceedance. Shallow groundwater chemical concentrations or rates of detection increased after artificial recharge began for the ions potassium, chloride, and fluoride; phosphorus and organic carbon species; trace elements barium, manganese, nickel, arsenate, arsenic, and boron; agricultural pesticides atrazine, metolachlor, metribuzin, and simazine; organic disinfection byproducts bromodichloromethane and trichloromethane; and gross beta levels. Additionally, water temperature, and pH were larger after recharge began; and total solids and slime-forming bacteria concentrations and densities were smaller. Total solids, nitrate, and selenium significantly decreased; and potassium, chloride, nickel, arsenic, fluoride, phosphorus and carbon species, and gross beta levels significantly increased in shallow groundwater after artificial recharge. Results of biological activity reaction tests indicated that water quality microbiology was different before and after artificial recharge began; at times, these differences may lead to changes in dominant bacterial populations that, in turn, may lead to formation and expansion in populations that may cause bioplugging and other unwanted effects. Calcite, iron (II) hydroxide, hydroxyapatite, and similar minerals, had shifts in saturation indices that generally were from undersaturation toward equilibrium and, in some cases, toward oversaturation. These shifts toward neutral saturation indices might suggest reduced weathering of the minerals present in the Equus Beds aquifer. Chemical weathering in the shallow parts of the aquifer may be accelerated because of the increased water temperatures and the system is more vulnerable to clogged pores and mineral dissolution as the equilibrium state is affected by recharge and withdrawal. When oversaturation is indicated for iron minerals, plugging of aquifer materials may happen.

Kansas↗

USGS2023

Range-wide trends in tiger conservation landscapes, 2001 - 2020

Of all the ways human beings have modified the planet over the last 10,000 years, habitat loss is the most important for other species. To address this most critical threat to biodiversity, governments, non-governmental actors, and the public need to know, in near real-time, where and when habitat loss is occurring. Here we present an integrated habitat modelling system at the range-wide scale for the tiger ( Panthera tigris ) to measure and monitor changes in tiger habitat at range-wide, national, biome, and landscape scales, as often as the underlying inputs change. We find that after nearly 150 years of decline, effective potential habitat for the tiger seems to have stabilized at around 16% of its indigenous extent (1.817 million km 2 ). As of the 1st of January 2020, there were 63 Tiger Conservation Landscapes in the world, covering 911,920 km 2 shared across ten of the 30 modern countries which once harbored tiger populations. Over the last 20 years, the total area of Tiger Conservation Landscapes (TCLs) declined from 1.025 million km 2 in 2001, a range-wide loss of 11%, with the greatest losses in Southeast Asia and southern China. Meanwhile, we documented expansions of modelled TCL area in India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern China, and southeastern Russia. We find significant potential for restoring tigers to existing habitats, identified here in 226 Restoration Landscapes. If these habitats had sufficient prey and were tigers able to find them, the occupied land base for tigers might increase by 50%. Our analytical system, incorporating Earth observations, in situ biological data, and a conservation-oriented modelling framework, provides the information the countries need to protect tigers and enhance habitat, including dynamic, spatially explicit maps and results, updated as often as the underlying data change. Our work builds on nearly 30 years of tiger conservation research and provides an accessible way for countries to measure progress and report outcomes. This work serves as a model for objective, range-wide, habitat monitoring as countries work to achieve the goals laid out in the Sustainable Development Goals, the 30×30 Agenda, and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Frontiers in Conservation Science↗

USGS2021

Emerging control strategies for integrated pest management of invasive carps

Invasive carps are ecologically and economically problematic fish species in many large river basins in the United States and pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems throughout much of North America. Four species of invasive carps: black carp ( Mylopharyngodon piceus ), grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ), are particularly concerning for native ecosystems because they occupy and disrupt a variety of food and habitat niches. In response, natural resource agencies are developing integrated pest management (IPM) plans to mitigate invasive carps. Control tools are one key component within a successful IPM program and have been a focal point for development by governmental agencies and academic researchers. For example, behavioural deterrents and barriers that block migratory pathways could limit carps range expansion into new areas, while efficient removal methods could suppress established carp populations. However, control tools are sometimes limited in practice due to uncertainty with deployment, efficacy and availability. This review provides an overview of several emerging modelling approaches and control technologies that could inform and support future invasive carp IPM programs.

Journal of Vertebrate Biology↗

USGS2009

Using indirect methods to constrain symbiotic nitrogen fixation rates: A case study from an Amazonian rain forest

Human activities have profoundly altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle. Increases in anthropogenic N have had multiple effects on the atmosphere, on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, and even on human health. Unfortunately, methodological limitations challenge our ability to directly measure natural N inputs via biological N fixation (BNF)-the largest natural source of new N to ecosystems. This confounds efforts to quantify the extent of anthropogenic perturbation to the N cycle. To address this gap, we used a pair of indirect methods -analytical modeling and N balance-to generate independent estimates of BNF in a presumed hotspot of N fixation , a tropical rain forest site in central Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. Our objectives were to attempt to constrain symbiotic N fixation rates in this site using indirect methods , and to assess strengths and weaknesses of this approach by looking for areas of convergence and disagreement between the estimates. This approach yielded two remarkably similar estimates of N fixation . However, when compared to a previously published bottom-up estimate, our analysis indicated much lower N inputs via symbiotic BNF in the Rondônia site than has been suggested for the tropics as a whole. This discrepancy may reflect errors associated with extrapolating bottom-up fluxes from plot-scale measures, those resulting from the indirect analyses, and/or the relatively low abundance of legumes at the Rondônia site. While indirect methods have some limitations, we suggest that until the technological challenges of directly measuring N fixation are overcome, integrated approaches that employ a combination of model-generated and empirically-derived data offer a promising way of constraining N inputs via BNF in natural ecosystems.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2017

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

The Condor↗

USGS2024

Bayesian approaches to proxy uncertainty quantification in paleoecology: A mathematical justification and practical integration

Paleoenvironmental data are essential for reconstructing environmental conditions in the distant past, and these reconstructions strongly depend on proxies and age–depth models. Proxies are indirect measurements that substitute for variables that cannot be directly measured, such as past precipitation. Conversely, an age–depth model is a tool that correlates the observed proxy with a specific moment in time. Bayesian age–depth modelling has proved to be a powerful method for estimating sediment ages and their associated uncertainties. However, there remains considerable potential for further integration into proxy analysis. In this paper, we explore a mathematical justification and a computational approach that integrates uncertainty at the age–depth level and propagates it to the proxy scale in the form of a posterior predictive distribution. This method mitigates potential biases and errors by removing the need to assign a single age to a given proxy measurement. It allows for quantifying the likelihood that proxy data values correspond to modelled ages, thus enabling the quantification of uncertainty in both the temporal and proxy value domains. The use of Bayesian statistics in proxy analysis represents a relatively recent advancement. We aim to mathematically justify incorporating the Markov chain Monte Carlo output from age–depth models into proxy analysis and to present a novel methodology for constructing environmental reconstructions using this approach.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmen↗

USGS2001

Molluscan faunal distribution in Florida Bay, past and present: An integration of down-core and modern data

Statistical comparison of modern molluscan fauna to down-core molluscan assemblages in four cores elucidates changes in the Florida Bay ecosystem during the past 100 to 200 years. Fluctuations within molluscan faunal dominance and diversity patterns suggest a response to changing environmental conditions. Faunal dominance patterns indicate an increase in salinity in the northern transitional zone, and possibly the eastern portion of Florida Bay. Distinctive faunal shifts recorded at Russell Bank occur approximately between 1913 and 1933 and at Bob Allen mudbank between approximately 1900 and 1910. The period from approximately 1930 to 1980 within these cores shows rapid and dramatic fluctuations in species dominance and faunal richness. Beginning around 1980, the mussel Brachidontes exustus , which can tolerate diminished water quality and a wide range of salinities, increases in percent abundance in the upper portion of all four cores and becomes the dominant species at Russell Bank and Bob Allen Mudbank. While these fluctuations within assemblages are distinctive, they are not so profound that they represent a major shift in estuarine zonations within northern, eastern, and central Florida Bay during the past 100 to 200 years. The majority of the molluscan fauna that are present at the core sites today are generally present throughout the period of deposition. Fluctuations in the molluscan faunal record down-core primarily express changes in dominance and diversity within assemblages and do not reflect substantial changes in overall assemblages. It is these fluctuations in dominance and the appearance or disappearance of critical indicator species that are indicative of salinity changes. Understanding the dynamics of an ecosystem and the natural range of variation in the system over an extended period of time is a critical component of effective restoration. Analysis of the modern environment provides a means to interpret biological data preserved in cores, and to determine the physical and chemical variations in the environment indicated by the biota. Knowledge of the past provides the best insight to predicting the impact of future change on the environment.

Florida↗

USGS2009

The needs of salmon and steelhead in balancing their conservation and use

Over the past 100 years, Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead trout O. mykiss populations in the Pacific Northwest have experienced dramatic declines as a result of human population growth and associated development of the region's natural resources. Any strategy to reverse those declines will depend on achieving consensus among a diverse group of stakeholders willing to (1) restore damaged habitats and watersheds; (2) consider the biological needs of salmonid fishes; and (3) understand, conserve, and manage existing levels of biodiversity within an ecosystem context. The objective of this chapter is to review and summarize the needs of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout from perspectives that promote their sustainability and perpetuity, and, within that context, provide a framework, for the development of a sustainable fisheries strategy. Although volumes of information are available on the life histories and habitat requirements of Pacific salmonids, new concepts have begun to address the importance of habitat complexity, genetic diversity among locally adapted populations, and the need for appropriate units of conservation. Habitat variability and complexity are the templates that produce diverse, locally adapted populations of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. Molded by conditions in the environments they colonized, salmon and steelhead have unique adaptations they may have taken hundred i?? perhaps thousands i?? of years to evolve. Any strategy to reverse the declines of salmon and steelhead must focus on conserving both current levels of genetic diversity as well as restoration and maintenance of habitats compatible with the specific needs of individual populations. An argument can be made that we know enough already about the needs of our salmon and steelhead to allow us to make appropriate decisions. There is strong need to integrate what we know about local salmonid adaptations and habitat needs with conservation and management strategies that address the problems we have created. It may be possible to have healthy, sustainable salmonid populations coastwide if we do not wait too long to make up our minds.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Terrestrial and marine trophic pathways support young-of-year growth in a nearshore Arctic fish

River discharge supplies nearshore communities with a terrestrial carbon source that is often reflected in invertebrate and fish consumers. Recent studies in the Beaufort Sea have documented widespread terrestrial carbon use among invertebrates, but only limited use among nearshore fish consumers. Here, we examine the carbon source and diet of rapidly growing young-of-year Arctic cisco ( Coregonus autumnalis ) using stable isotope values (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) from muscle and diet analysis (stomach contents) during a critical and previously unsampled life stage. Stable isotope values (δ 15 N and δ 13 C) may differentiate between terrestrial and marine sources and integrate over longer time frames (weeks). Diet analysis provides species-specific information, but only from recent foraging (days). Average δ 13 C for all individuals was −25.7 ‰, with the smallest individuals possessing significantly depleted δ 13 C values indicative of a stronger reliance of terrestrial carbon sources as compared to larger individuals. Average δ 15 N for all individuals was 10.4 ‰, with little variation among individuals. As fish length increased, the proportion of offshore Calanus prey and neritic Mysis prey increased. Rapid young-of-year growth in Arctic cisco appears to use terrestrial carbon sources obtained by consuming a mixture of neritic and offshore zooplankton. Shifts in the magnitude or phenology of river discharge and the delivery of terrestrial carbon may alter the ecology of nearshore fish consumers.

Polar Biology↗