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USGS2024

Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk?

One of the flagship products from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Since 1976, the NSHM has been periodically updated to reflect newly published earthquake science and provide probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard for the United States. During each update cycle, alternative models are deliberated, analyzed, and documented through logic trees and their corresponding logic tree branch weights. For example, the decision to modify a logic tree branch weight may be influenced by sensitivity analyses of the logic tree branches in their effects on the mean hazard. However, do small changes in traditional measures of hazard imply small changes in risk? In this study, we make use of two update cycles of the USGS NSHMs and a National Bridge Inventory (NBI) from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to explore the preceding question. Specifically, we first identify geographic locations in the conterminous United States in which the change in hazard from one cycle to another is relatively small. Next, we model the seismic risk to highway bridges for these locations and for each update cycle, while simultaneously distinguishing low hazard environments from high hazard environments. These data enable quantitative analysis of how much changes in risk can be expected given small changes in hazard, investigating the importance of risk models in decision-making during development of the USGS NSHMs.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1977

Preliminary analysis of lineaments and engineering properties of bedrock, Penobscot Bay area, Maine

A remote sensing study of coastal and near coastal Maine was undertaken to identify bedrock features of possible importance to construction. Major lineaments were identified that separate the region into four distinct terrains. Within each terrain, smaller lineaments and other physiographic features show distinctive and consistent patterns, reflecting similarities in bedrock lithology and structure. The major linear features are given the following provisional geographic names: I. Lewiston line 2. Merrymeeting lineament 3. Dover-Foxcroft line 4. Orland lineament 5. Union lineament These linear or curvilinear trends are caused by lithologic contrasts, joints, faults, or foliation in the middle and lower Paleozoic phyllites, schists, gneisses, and granite intrusives. Initial field and laboratory results from a pilot study of bedrock engineering conditions indicate that variations in rock strength and fracture spacing are controlled by lithology, intensity of structural deformation, and alteration. At several locations in the study area faults and major joints are alined with a major lineament. Strength anisotropy ratios are as high as 10 in the foliated rocks but near 1 in the granites. The higher compressive strength direction commonly is perpendicular to foliation and to lineament trends which, in turn, are parallel to faults, major joints, or foliation. Fracture spacing in rocks in the field study area averages 0.5 m for granite and ranges from 0.2 cm to 0.75 m, with an average of 0.15 m, in metamorphic rocks. Diagnostic indications useful for estimating certain construction conditions are shown by point-load and uniaxial compressive strengths. Values for fresh rock range from less than 30 MN/m 2 for weakly bonded phyllite to more than 350 MN/m 2 for dense andesite and metasiltstone. Rock workability is directly related to compressive strength and spacing of joints.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1994

The genetic diversity and epizootiology of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is a rhabdovirus which causes a serious disease in salmondd fish. The T1 ribonuclease fingerprinttin method was used to compare the RNA genomes of 26 isolates of IHNV recovered from sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), and steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) throughout the enzootic portion of western North America. Most of the isolates as a source of genetic variation. In from a single year (1987) to limit time of isolation as a source of genetic variation. In addition, isolates from different years collected at three sites were analyzed to investigate genetic drift or evolution of IHNV within specific locations. All of the isolates examined by T1 fingerprint analysis contained less than a 50% variation in spot location and were represented by a single fingerprint group. The observed variation was estimated to correspond to less than 5% variation in the nucleic acid sequence. However, sufficient variation was detected to separate the isolates into four subgroups which appeared to correlate to different geographic regions. Host species appeared not to be a significant source of variation. The evolutionary and epizootiologic significance of these findings and their relationship to other evidence of genetic variation in IHNV isolates are discussed.

Virus Research↗

USGS2016

Using smooth sheets to describe groundfish habitat in Alaskan waters, with specific application to two flatfishes

In this analysis we demonstrate how preferred fish habitat can be predicted and mapped for juveniles of two Alaskan groundfish species – Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis ) and flathead sole ( Hippoglossoides elassodon ) – at five sites (Kiliuda Bay, Izhut Bay, Port Dick, Aialik Bay, and the Barren Islands) in the central Gulf of Alaska. The method involves using geographic information system (GIS) software to extract appropriate information from National Ocean Service (NOS) smooth sheets that are available from NGDC (the National Geophysical Data Center). These smooth sheets are highly detailed charts that include more soundings, substrates, shoreline and feature information than the more commonly-known navigational charts. By bringing the information from smooth sheets into a GIS, a variety of surfaces, such as depth, slope, rugosity and mean grain size were interpolated into raster surfaces. Other measurements such as site openness, shoreline length, proportion of bay that is near shore, areas of rocky reefs and kelp beds, water volumes, surface areas and vertical cross-sections were also made in order to quantify differences between the study sites. Proper GIS processing also allows linking the smooth sheets to other data sets, such as orthographic satellite photographs, topographic maps and precipitation estimates from which watersheds and runoff can be derived. This same methodology can be applied to larger areas, taking advantage of these free data sets to describe predicted groundfish essential fish habitat (EFH) in Alaskan waters.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

A model to locate potential areas for lake sturgeon spawning habitat construction in the St. Clair–Detroit River System

In response to a need for objective scientific information that could be used to help remediate loss of fish spawning habitat in the St. Clair River and Detroit River International Areas of Concern, this paper summarizes a large-scale geographic mapping investigation. Our study integrates data on two variables that many riverine fishes respond to in selecting where to spawn in these waters (water flow velocity and water depth) with available maps of the St. Clair–Detroit River System (SC–DRS). Our objectives were to locate and map these two physical components of fish habitat in the St. Clair and Detroit rivers and Lake St. Clair using a geographic information system (GIS) and to identify where, theoretically, fish spawning habitat could be remediated in these rivers. The target fish species to which this model applies is lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens), but spawning reefs constructed for lake sturgeon in this system have been used for spawning by 17 species of fish. Our analysis revealed areas in each river that possessed suitable water velocity and depth for fish spawning and therefore could theoretically be remediated by the addition of rock-rubble substrate like that used at two previously remediated sites in the Detroit River at Belle Isle and Fighting Island. Results of our analysis revealed that only 3% of the total area of the SC–DRS possesses the necessary combination of water depth and high flow velocity to be indicated by the model as potential spawning habitat for lake sturgeon.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2006

Spatial and Temporal Migration Patterns of Neotropical Migrants in the Southwest Revealed by Stable Isotopes

Executive Summary We used stable hydrogen isotopes (?D) to investigate both temporal and spatial patterns during spring migration for three warbler species, Wilson's Warbler (Wilsonia pusilla), MacGillivray's Warbler (Oporornis tolmiei), and Nashville Warbler (Vermivora ruficapilla), across multiple migration routes in southwest North America. A strong correlation between stable hydrogen isotope values of feathers and the local precipitation at sites where feathers where collected across the breeding range for all three species reaffirmed that stable hydrogen isotopes were a good predictor of breeding locations. For the Wilson's Warbler, we found a significant negative relationship between the date when warblers passed through the sampling station and ?D values of their feathers, indicating that warblers who bred the previous season at southern latitudes migrated through the migration stations earlier than did warblers that had previously bred at more northern latitudes. This pattern was consistent across their southwestern migration route (5 sites sampled) and was consistent between years. Comparing ?D values between migration stations also showed a shift towards more negative ?D values from the western to the eastern migration stations sampled in this study, which corresponded to different geographical regions of the Wilson's Warblers' western breeding range. For MacGillivray's Warbler we found the same temporal pattern as Wilson's Warbler, with warblers that bred the previous season at southern latitudes migrating through the migration stations earlier than warblers that had previously bred at more northern latitudes. This pattern was consistent at the Lower Colorado River and Arivaca Creek, the two sites where sample sizes were adequate to test these hypotheses. Comparison of the ?D between the two sites indicated that the majority of warblers migrating through these stations were breeding within a geographically limited area of MacGillivray's Warblers' overall breeding range. This is in contrast to the larger range of ?D values for Wilson's Warblers at these two sites, which corresponded to a broader area across their breeding range. Feathers were also collected across MacGillivray's Warblers' wintering range, and stable hydrogen isotope analysis indicated a significant positive relationship with wintering latitude. Because the ?D value of MacGillivray's Warblers' feathers reflects the ?D value of their breeding locations, with more negative values representing more northerly breeding latitudes, this positive relationship between feather ?D and wintering latitude indicated that warblers wintering at more southern latitudes bred at more northern latitudes. This supports a leapfrog migration system for MacGillivray's Warblers and is the first documentation of such a pattern. We did not find a temporal pattern to the spring migration of Nashville Warblers. This lack of temporal pattern could be due to the reduced size of the breeding and wintering ranges of Nashville Warblers, both of which could decrease the advantages of a temporal migration pattern. A small population of Nashville Warblers also breeds on the California coast and the sporadic nature of migration for Nashville Warblers in the southwest suggests that in some years more Nashville Warblers may winter along the California coast. The information in this study has increased our understanding of both spatial and temporal patterns of migration for three neotropical migrant birds and has important implications for understanding the ecology and evolution of migrants and factors influencing overall population dynamics.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Stream-channel and watershed delineations and basin-characteristic measurements using lidar elevation data for small drainage basins within the Des Moines Lobe landform region in Iowa

Basin-characteristic measurements related to stream length, stream slope, stream density, and stream order have been identified as significant variables for estimation of flood, flow-duration, and low-flow discharges in Iowa. The placement of channel initiation points, however, has always been a matter of individual interpretation, leading to differences in stream definitions between analysts. This study investigated five different methods to define stream initiation using 3-meter light detection and ranging (lidar) digital elevation models (DEMs) data for 17 streamgages with drainage areas less than 50 square miles within the Des Moines Lobe landform region in north-central Iowa. Each DEM was hydrologically enforced and the five stream initiation methods were used to define channel initiation points and the downstream flow paths. The five different methods to define stream initiation were tested side-by-side for three watershed delineations: (1) the total drainage-area delineation, (2) an effective drainage-area delineation of basins based on a 2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) 12-hour rainfall, and (3) an effective drainage-area delineation based on a 20-percent AEP 12-hour rainfall. Generalized least squares regression analysis was used to develop a set of equations for sites in the Des Moines Lobe landform region for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEPs. A total of 17 streamgages were included in the development of the regression equations. In addition, geographic information system software was used to measure 58 selected basin-characteristics for each streamgage. Results of the regression analyses of the 15 lidar datasets indicate that the datasets that produce regional regression equations (RREs) with the best overall predictive accuracy are the National Hydrographic Dataset, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, and profile curvature of 0.5 stream initiation methods combined with the 20-percent AEP 12-hour rainfall watershed delineation method. These RREs have a mean average standard error of prediction (SEP) for 4-, 2-, and 1-percent AEP discharges of 53.9 percent and a mean SEP for all eight AEPs of 55.5 percent. Compared to the RREs developed in this study using the basin characteristics from the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application, the lidar basin characteristics provide better overall predictive accuracy.

Iowa↗

USGS2004

Distribution of sea anemones (Cnidaria, Actiniaria) in Korea analyzed by environmental clustering

Using environmental data and the geospatial clustering tools LOICZView and DISCO, we empirically tested the postulated existence and boundaries of four biogeographic regions in the southern part of the Korean peninsula. Environmental variables used included wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, tidal amplitude, and the chlorophyll spectral signal. Our analysis confirmed the existence of four biogeographic regions, but the details of the borders between them differ from those previously postulated. Specimen-level distribution records of intertidal sea anemones were mapped; their distribution relative to the environmental data supported the importance of the environmental parameters we selected in defining suitable habitats. From the geographic coincidence between anemone distribution and the clusters based on environmental variables, we infer that geospatial clustering has the power to delimit ranges for marine organisms within relatively small geographical areas.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2005

Murre eggs ( Uria aalge and Uria lomvia ) as indicators of mercury contamination in the Alaskan marine environment

Sixty common murre ( Uria aalge ) and 27 thick-billed murre ( Uria lomvia ) eggs collected by the Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) in 1999−2001 from two Gulf of Alaska and three Bering Sea nesting colonies were analyzed for total mercury (Hg) using isotope dilution cold vapor inductively coupled mass spectrometry. Hg concentrations (wet mass) ranged from 0.011 μg/g to 0.357 μg/g (relative standard deviation = 76%), while conspecifics from the same colonies and years had an average relative standard deviation of 33%. Hg levels in eggs from the Gulf of Alaska (0.166 μg/g ± 0.011 μg/g) were significantly higher ( p < 0.0001) than in the Bering Sea (0.047 μg/g ± 0.004 μg/g). Within the Bering Sea, Hg was significantly higher ( p = 0.0007) in eggs from Little Diomede Island near the arctic than at the two more southern colonies. Although thick-billed and common murres are ecologically similar, there were significant species differences in egg Hg concentrations within each region ( p < 0.0001). In the Bering Sea, eggs from thick-billed murres had higher Hg concentrations than eggs from common murres, while in the Gulf of Alaska, common murre eggs had higher concentrations than those of thick-billed murres. A separate one-way analysis of variance on the only time−trend data currently available for a colony (St. Lazaria Island in the Gulf of Alaska) found significantly lower Hg concentrations in common murre eggs collected in 2001 compared to 1999 ( p = 0.017). Results from this study indicate that murre eggs may be effective monitoring units for detecting geographic, species, and temporal patterns of Hg contamination in marine food webs. The relatively small intracolony variation in egg Hg levels and the ability to consistently obtain adequate sample sizes both within and among colonies over a large geographic range means that monitoring efforts using murre eggs will have suitable statistical power for detecting environmental patterns of Hg contamination. The potential influences of trophic effects, physical transport patterns, and biogeochemical processes on these monitoring efforts are discussed, and future plans to investigate the sources of the observed variability are presented.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2022

Exploring genetic variation and population structure in a threatened species, Noturus placidus, with whole-genome sequence data

The Neosho madtom ( Noturus placidus ) is a small catfish, generally less than 3 inches in length, unique to the Neosho-Spring River system within the Arkansas River Basin. It was federally listed as threatened in 1990, largely due to habitat loss. For conservation efforts, we generated whole-genome sequence data from 10 Neosho madtom individuals originating from 3 geographically separated populations to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure. A Neosho madtom genome was de novo assembled, and genome size and content were assessed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were assessed from de Bruijn graphs, and via reference alignment with both the channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus) reference genome and Neosho madtom reference genome. Principal component analysis and structure analysis indicated weak population structure, suggesting fish from the 3 locations represent a single population. Using a novel method, genome-wide conservation and divergence between the Neosho madtom, channel catfish, and zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) was assessed by pairwise contig alignment, which demonstrated that genes important to embryonic development frequently had conserved sequences. This research in a threatened species with no previously published genomic resources provides novel genetic information to guide current and future conservation efforts and demonstrates that using whole-genome sequencing provides detailed information of population structure and demography using only a limited number of rare and valuable samples.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2009

A tangled tale of two teal: Population history of the grey Anas gracilis and chestnut teal a. castanea of Australia

Two Australian species of teal (Anseriformes: Anatidae: Anas), the grey teal Anas gracilis and the chestnut teal A. castanea, are remarkable for the zero or near-zero divergence recorded between them in earlier surveys of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity. We confirmed this result through wider geographical and population sampling as well as nucleotide sampling in the more rapidly evolving mtDNA control region. Any data set where two species share polymorphism as is the case here can be explained by a model of gene flow through hybridization on one hand or by incomplete lineage sorting on the other hand. Ideally, analysis of such shared polymorphism would simultaneously estimate the likelihood of both phenomena. To do this, we used the underlying principle of the IMa package to explore ramifications to understanding population histories of A. gracilis and A. castanea. We cannot reject that hybridization occurs between the two species but an equally or more plausible finding for their nearly zero divergence is incomplete sorting following very recent divergence between the two, probably in the mid-late Pleistocene. Our data add to studies that explore intermediate stages in the evolution of reciprocal monophyly and paraphyletic or polyphyletic relationships in mtDNA diversity among widespread Australian birds. ?? 2009 J. Avian Biol.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2005

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression models in the region ranged from 65 to 68 percent. The basins that drain into the northern part of Tampa Bay and the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin are in Region 3, which had prediction errors ranging from 54 to 74 percent. Region 4, at the southern end of the study area, had prediction errors that ranged from 40 to 56 percent. Estimates of flood discharge become more accurate as longer periods of record are used for analyses; results of this study should be used in lieu of results from earlier U.S. Geological Survey studies of flood magnitude and frequency in west-central Florida. A comparison of current results with earlier studies indicates that use of a longer period of record with additional high-water events produces substantially higher flood-discharge estimates for many gaging stations. Another comparison indicates that the use of a computed, generalized skew in a previous study in 1979 tended to overestimate flood discharges.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1995

GIS for mapping waterfowl density and distribution from aerial surveys

We modified standard aerial survey data collection to obtain the geographic location for each waterfowl observation on surveys in Alaska during 1987-1993. Using transect navigation with CPS (global positioning system), data recording on continuously running tapes, and a computer data input program, we located observations with an average deviation along transects of 214 m. The method provided flexibility in survey design and data analysis. Although developed for geese nesting near the coast of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, the methods are widely applicable and were used on other waterfowl surveys in Alaska to map distribution and relative abundance of waterfowl. Accurate location data with GIS analysis and display may improve precision and usefulness of data from any aerial transect survey.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1995

Locating waterfowl observations on aerial surveys

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2016

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

USGS2021

Poecivirus is present in individuals with beak deformities in seven species of North American birds

Avian keratin disorder (AKD), a disease of unknown etiology characterized by debilitating beak overgrowth, has increasingly affected wild bird populations since the 1990s. A novel picornavirus, poecivirus, is closely correlated with disease status in Black-capped Chickadees ( Poecile atricapillus ) in Alaska. However, our knowledge of the relationship between poecivirus and beak deformities in other species and other geographic areas remains limited. The growing geographic scope and number of species affected by AKD-like beak deformities require a better understanding of the causative agent to evaluate the population-level impacts of this epizootic. Here, we tested eight individuals from six avian species with AKD-consistent deformities for the presence of poecivirus: Mew Gull ( Larus canus ), Hairy Woodpecker ( Picoides villosus ), Black-billed Magpie ( Pica hudsonia ), American Crow ( Corvus brachyrhynchos ), Red-breasted Nuthatch ( Sitta canadensis ), and Blackpoll Warbler ( Setophaga striata ). The birds were sampled in Alaska and Maine (1999−2016). We used targeted PCR followed by Sanger sequencing to test for the presence of poecivirus in each specimen and to obtain viral genome sequence from virus-positive host individuals. We detected poecivirus in all individuals tested, but not in negative controls (water and tissue samples). Furthermore, we used unbiased metagenomic sequencing to test for the presence of other pathogens in six of these specimens (Hairy Woodpecker, two American Crows, two Red-breasted Nuthatches, Blackpoll Warbler). This analysis yielded additional viral sequences from several specimens, including the complete coding region of poecivirus from one Red-breasted Nuthatch, which we confirmed via targeted PCR followed by Sanger sequencing. This study demonstrates that poecivirus is present in individuals with AKD-consistent deformities from six avian species other than Black-capped Chickadee. While further investigation will be required to explore whether there exists a causal link between this virus and AKD, this study demonstrates that poecivirus is not geographically restricted to Alaska, but rather occurs elsewhere in North America.

Alaska, Maine↗

USGS2024

Synoptic analysis and WRF-Chem model simulation of dust events in the southwestern United States

Dust transported from rangelands of the Southwestern United States (US) to mountain snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin during spring (March-May) forces earlier and faster snowmelt, which creates problems for water resources and agriculture. To better understand the drivers of dust events, we investigated large-scale meteorology responsible for organizing two Southwest US dust events from two different dominant geographic locations: (a) the Colorado Plateau and (b) the northern Chihuahuan Desert. High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) simulations with the Air Force Weather Agency dust emission scheme incorporating a MODIS albedo-based drag-partition was used to explore land surface-atmosphere interactions driving two dust events. We identified commonalities in their meteorological setups. The meteorological analyses revealed that Polar and Sub-tropical jet stream interaction was a common upper-level meteorological feature before each of the two dust events. When the two jet streams merged, a strong northeast-directed pressure gradient upstream and over the source areas resulted in strong near-surface winds, which lifted available dust into the atmosphere. Concurrently, a strong mid-tropospheric flow developed over the dust source areas, which transported dust to the San Juan Mountains and southern Colorado snowpack. The WRF-Chem simulations reproduced both dust events, indicating that the simulations represented the dust sources that contributed to dust-on-snow events reasonably well. The representativeness of the simulated dust emission and transport in different geographic and meteorological conditions with our use of albedo-based drag partition provides a basis for additional dust-on-snow simulations to assess the hydrologic impact in the Southwest US.

southwestern United States↗

USGS1986

Southern California alluvial basins regional aquifer-systems analysis: A bibliography

A bibliography for the Southern California Alluvial Basins Regional Aquifer-Systems Analysis includes references for about 3,500 publications related to the geohydrology of the 75,000 sq-mi region, which encompasses all of southern California except the Central Valley, the Channel Islands and the Pacific Ocean floor off southern California, and parts of adjacent states and Mexico. The report indexes the publications in six geographic categories and induces a list of sources of publications. Because of the large number of references in the bibliography, a system was developed for computer storage and retrieval. References can be retrieved by geographic location, author, or geohydrologic discipline and subject. The computer system allows for updating and addition of references.

California↗