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Preliminary report on engineering and geological effects of the July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence

The Ridgecrest Earthquake sequence included a foreshock event on July 4 2019 (M6.4) and a M7.1 mainshock event on July 5 2019. These events occurred in the Eastern California Shear Zone, near Indian Wells Valley, south of China Lake and west of Searles Valley. GEER has partnered with several organizations to collect perishable data and document the important impacts of these events, including the US Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey, the US Navy, the Southern California Earthquake Center, and local utilities. Critical geotechnical features of this event are extensive left-lateral (M6.4 event) and right-lateral (M7.1 event) surface ruptures over fault segments of variable complexity and width as well as across extensional and compressive step-over zones. We also document lifeline performance at fault crossings (gas, water, electrical), mainshock slip and afterslip, liquefaction and lateral spreading features, and liquefaction effects on structures. These effects are documented using field (ground) mapping and aerial imagery that will support subsequent development of high-resolution digital elevation models. Over 750 ground motions were recorded from the foreshock and mainshock alone, with many additional aftershock records. The data demonstrate significant impacts of site response and rupture directivity on ground motion attributes.

Report↗

Development of the next generation of seismic design value maps for the 2020 NEHRP Provisions

During the period January 2015 through August 2018, a joint committee of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) representatives and National Institute of Building Sciences Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) volunteers and staff formed a committee to conduct Project 17. The purpose of Project 17 was to formulate recommendations for the rules by which next-generation seismic design value maps, derived from USGS national seismic hazard models, will be developed for adoption by the 2020 National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations of New Buildings and Other Structures (NEHRP Provisions), ASCE 7-22 and the 2024 International Building Code. Two similar projects, Project 97 and Project 07, had been conducted in the past. Each of these projects established, for a period of approximately ten years, the rules by which design ground motion values referenced by the building codes would be developed both by USGS and by private consultants engaged in site-specific studies. Project 17 was originally commissioned in response to issues identified in adopting the 2014 edition of the USGS national seismic hazard model and the design procedures that reference them for use, including the NEHRP Provisions, building codes and referenced standards. Specific issues included: the engineering profession’s discontent with the fluctuating design values portrayed by successive map editions; discovery that the standard spectral shape referenced by the design provisions did not adequately represent ground motion amplitude and spectral character on some sites; and a change in seismologic characterization of the possible size of earthquakes originating on various faults and source zones. Project 17 was funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and supported by the USGS with some collaborating experts. An initial planning committee met throughout calendar year 2015 to identify key issues to be considered and to develop a work plan for addressing these as part of the 2020 NEHRP Provisions update cycle. The planning committee recommended an effort of approximately 30-months duration during which the USGS would develop draft design maps based on the rules proposed, to allow evaluation and refinement of the recommendations. A Project 17 Committee (P17C) was empaneled and four task subcommittees were formed, each charged with evaluating one of the key issues identified in the planning effort: Stabilizing mapped values; Definition of Acceptable Risk; Development of multi-period spectral parameter data; and, Definition of procedures for computing deterministic caps, should it be necessary to continue use of such caps in development of the maps. A fifth task subcommittee was formed in 2017 to look at ways to stabilize the seismic design category as an extended effort to stabilize mapped values. The P17C met three times per year throughout 2016, 2017 and 2018 to resolve these issues and develop recommendations for an updated technical basis and procedures to be followed in preparing next-generation seismic design value maps for inclusion in the NEHRP Provisions. The P17C documented these in the form of draft proposals for revision of the NEHRP Provisions. In August 2018, the P17C passed these recommendations to the Provisions Update Committee (PUC) for completion, development of consensus and adoption as appropriate.

Report↗

Volcanogenic uranium deposits: Geology, geochemical processes, and criteria for resource assessment

Felsic volcanic rocks have long been considered a primary source of uranium for many kinds of uranium deposits, but volcanogenic uranium deposits themselves have generally not been important resources. Until the past few years, resource summaries for the United States or the world generally include volcanogenic in the broad category of "other deposits" because they comprised less than 0.5 percent of past production or estimated resources. Exploration in the United States from the 1940s through 1982 discovered hundreds of prospects in volcanic rocks, of which fewer than 20 had some recorded production. Intensive exploration in the late 1970s found some large deposits, but low grades (less than about 0.10 percent U 3 O 8 ) discouraged economic development. A few deposits in the world, drilled in the 1980s and 1990s, are now known to contain large resources (>20,000 tonnes U 3 O 8 ). However, research on ore-forming processes and exploration for volcanogenic deposits has lagged behind other kinds of uranium deposits and has not utilized advances in understanding of geology, geochemistry, and paleohydrology of ore deposits in general and epithermal deposits in particular. This review outlines new ways to explore and assess for volcanogenic deposits, using new concepts of convection, fluid mixing, and high heat flow to mobilize uranium from volcanic source rocks and form deposits that are postulated to be large. Much can also be learned from studies of epithermal metal deposits, such as the important roles of extensional tectonics, bimodal volcanism, and fracture-flow systems related to resurgent calderas. Regional resource assessment is helped by genetic concepts, but hampered by limited information on frontier areas and undiscovered districts. Diagnostic data used to define ore deposit genesis, such as stable isotopic data, are rarely available for frontier areas. A volcanic environment classification, with three classes (proximal, distal, and pre-volcanic structures), permits use of geologic features on 1:500,000 to 1:100,000 scale maps. Geochemical databases for volcanic rocks are postulated to be more effective than databases for stream sediments or surface radioactivity, both of which tend to be inconsistent because of variable leaching of uranium from soils. Based on empirical associations, spatial associations with areas of wet paleoclimate, adjacent oil and gas fields, or evaporite beds are deemed positive. Most difficult to estimate is the location of depositional traps and reduction zones, in part because they are mere points at regional scale. Grade and tonnage data are reviewed and discussed for 32 deposits in the world. Experience of mining engineers and geologists in Asia suggests that tonnages could be higher than presently known in the Western Hemisphere. Geological analysis, and new data from Asia, suggest a typical or median deposit tonnage of about 5,000 tonnes U 3 O 8 , and an optimistic forecast of discoveries in the range of 5,000 to 20,000 tonnes U 3 O 8 . The likely grade of undiscovered deposits could be about 0.15 percent U 3 O 8 , based on both western and eastern examples. Volcanic terrane is under-explored, relative to other kinds of uranium deposits, and is considered a favorable frontier area for new discoveries.

Open-File Report↗

Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is to reduce this time gap to more rapidly and effectively mobilize response. We present here a procedure to rapidly and approximately ascertain the economic impact immediately following a large earthquake anywhere in the world. In principle, the approach presented is similar to the empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed and implemented by Jaiswal and others (2009). In order to estimate economic losses, we need an assessment of the economic exposure at various levels of shaking intensity. The economic value of all the physical assets exposed at different locations in a given area is generally not known and extremely difficult to compile at a global scale. In the absence of such a dataset, we first estimate the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exposed at each shaking intensity by multiplying the per-capita GDP of the country by the total population exposed at that shaking intensity level. We then scale the total GDP estimated at each intensity by an exposure correction factor, which is a multiplying factor to account for the disparity between wealth and/or economic assets to the annual GDP. The economic exposure obtained using this procedure is thus a proxy estimate for the economic value of the actual inventory that is exposed to the earthquake. The economic loss ratio, defined in terms of a country-specific lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity, is derived and calibrated against the losses from past earthquakes. This report describes the development of a country or region-specific economic loss ratio model using economic loss data available for global earthquakes from 1980 to 2007. The proposed model is a potential candidate for directly estimating economic losses within the currently-operating PAGER system. PAGER's other loss models use indirect methods that require substantially more data (such as building/asset inventories, vulnerabilities, and the asset values exposed at the time of earthquake) to implement on a global basis and will thus take more time to develop and implement within the PAGER system.

Open-File Report↗

Chapter B. The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 - Highway Systems

This paper summarizes the impact of the Loma Prieta earthquake on highway systems. City streets, urban freeways, county roads, state routes, and the national highway system were all affected. There was damage to bridges, roads, tunnels, and other highway structures. The most serious damage occurred in the cities of San Francisco and Oakland, 60 miles from the fault rupture. The cost to repair and replace highways damaged by this earthquake was $2 billion. About half of this cost was to replace the Cypress Viaduct, a long, elevated double-deck expressway that had a devastating collapse which resulted in 42 deaths and 108 injuries. The earthquake also resulted in some positive changes for highway systems. Research on bridges and earthquakes began to be funded at a much higher level. Retrofit programs were started to upgrade the seismic performance of the nation's highways. The Loma Prieta earthquake changed earthquake policy and engineering practice for highway departments not only in California, but all over the world.

Professional Paper↗

High resolution seismic-reflection imaging of shallow deformation beneath the northeast margin of the Manila high at Big Lake, Arkansas

The Manila high, an elliptical area 19 km long (N-S) by 6 km wide (E-W) located west-southwest of Big Lake. Arkansas, has less than 3 m of topographic relief. Geomorphic, stratigraphic and chronology data indicate that Big Lake formed during at least two periods of Holocene uplift and subsequent damming of the south-flowing Little River. Age data of an organic mat located at the base of an upper lacustrine deposit indicates an abrupt, possibly tectonic, formation of the present Big Lake between AD 1640 and 1950. We acquired 7 km of high-resolution seismic-reflection data across the northeastern margin of the Manila high to examine its near-surface bedrock structure and possible association with underlying structures such as the Blytheville arch. Sense of displacement and character of imaged faults support interpretations for either a northwest trending, 1.5 km-wide, block of uplifted strata or a series of parallel northeast-trending faults that bound horst and graben structures. We interpret deformation of the Manila high to result from faulting generated by the reactivation of right-lateral strike-slip fault motion along this portion of the Blytheville arch. The most recent uplift of the Manila high may have occurred during the December 16, 1811, New Madrid earthquake. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Engineering Geology↗

Texture-based automated lithological classification using aeromagnetic anomaly images

This report consists of a thesis submitted to the faculty of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Graduate College, The University of Arizona, 2004 Aeromagnetic anomaly images are geophysical prospecting tools frequently used in the exploration of metalliferous minerals and hydrocarbons. The amplitude and texture content of these images provide a wealth of information to geophysicists who attempt to delineate the nature of the Earth's upper crust. These images prove to be extremely useful in remote areas and locations where the minerals of interest are concealed by basin fill. Typically, geophysicists compile a suite of aeromagnetic anomaly images, derived from amplitude and texture measurement operations, in order to obtain a qualitative interpretation of the lithological (rock) structure. Texture measures have proven to be especially capable of capturing the magnetic anomaly signature of unique lithological units. We performed a quantitative study to explore the possibility of using texture measures as input to a machine vision system in order to achieve automated classification of lithological units. This work demonstrated a significant improvement in classification accuracy over random guessing based on a priori probabilities. Additionally, a quantitative comparison between the performances of five classes of texture measures in their ability to discriminate lithological units was achieved.

Arizona↗

Satellite imagery of the earth

Photography of the Earth from spacecraft has application to both atmospheric and Earth sciences. Gemini and Apollo photographs have furnished information on sea surface roughness, areas of potential upwelling and oceanic current systems. Regional geologic structures and geomorphologic features are also recorded in orbital photographs. Infrared satellite imagery provides meteorological and hydrological data and is potentially useful for locating fresh water springs along coastal areas, sources of geothermal power and volcanic activity. Ground and airborne surveys are being undertaken to create a basis for the interpretation of data obtained from future satellite systems.

Photogrammetric Engineering↗

Seismic Station Installation Orientation Errors at ANSS and IRIS/USGS Stations

Many seismological studies depend on the published orientations of sensitive axes of seismic instruments relative to north (e.g., Li et al., 2011). For example, studies of the anisotropic structure of the Earth’s mantle through SKS‐splitting measurements (Long et al., 2009), constraints on core–mantle electromagnetic coupling from torsional normal‐mode measurements (Dumberry and Mound, 2008), and models of three‐dimensional (3D) velocity variations from surface waves (Ekström et al., 1997) rely on accurate sensor orientation. Unfortunately, numerous results indicate that this critical parameter is often subject to significant error (Laske, 1995; Laske and Masters, 1996; Yoshizawa et al., 1999; Schulte‐Pelkum et al., 2001; Larson and Ekström, 2002). For the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS; ANSS Technical Integration Committee, 2002), the Global Seismographic Network (GSN; Butler et al., 2004), and many other networks, sensor orientation is typically determined by a field engineer during installation. Successful emplacement of a seismic instrument requires identifying true north, transferring a reference line, and measuring the orientation of the instrument relative to the reference line. Such an exercise is simple in theory, but there are many complications in practice. There are four commonly used methods for determining true north at the ANSS and GSN stations operated by the USGS Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL), including gyroscopic, astronomical, Global Positioning System (GPS), and magnetic field techniques. A particular method is selected based on site conditions (above ground, below ground, availability of astronomical observations, and so on) and in the case of gyroscopic methods, export restrictions. Once a north line has been determined, it must be translated to the sensor location. For installations in mines or deep vaults, this step can include tracking angles through the one or more turns in the access tunnel leading to the vault (e.g., GSN station WCI in Wyandotte Cave, Indiana). Finally, the third source of error comes from the ability of field engineers to orient the sensor relative to the reference line. In order to quantify bounds on the errors in each step in the orientation process, we conducted a series of tests at the ASL using twelve GSN and ANSS field engineers. The results from this exercise allow us to estimate upper bounds on the precision of our ability to orient instruments, as well as identify the sources of error in the procedures. We are also able to identify systematic bias of various true‐north‐finding methods relative to one another. Although we are unable to estimate the absolute accuracy of our orientation measurements due to our inability to identify true north without some error, the agreement between independent methods for finding true north provides confidence in the different approaches, assuming no systematic bias. Finally, our study neglects orientation errors that are beyond the control of the field engineer during a station visit. These additional errors can arise from deviations in the sensitive axes of the instruments relative to the case markings, processing errors (Holcomb, 2002) when comparing horizontal orientations relative to other sensors (e.g., borehole installations), and deviations of the sensitive axes of instruments from true orthogonality (e.g., instruments with separate modules such as the Streckeisen STS‐1).

Seismological Research Letters↗

Hydrologic data and groundwater flow simulations in the vicinity of Long Lake, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Gary, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected data and simulated groundwater flow to increase understanding of the hydrology and the effects of drainage alterations to the water table in the vicinity of Long Lake, near Gary, Indiana. East Long Lake and West Long Lake (collectively known as Long Lake) make up one of the largest interdunal lakes within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore. The National Park Service is tasked with preservation and restoration of wetlands in the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore along the southern shoreline of Lake Michigan. Urban development and engineering have modified drainage and caused changes in the distribution of open water, streams and ditches, and groundwater abundance and flow paths. A better understanding of the effects these modifications have on the hydrologic system in the area will help the National Park Service, the Gary Sanitary District (GSD), and local stakeholders manage and protect the resources within the study area. This study used hydrologic data and steady-state groundwater simulations to estimate directions of groundwater flow and the effects of various engineering controls and climatic conditions on the hydrology near Long Lake. Periods of relatively high and low groundwater levels were examined and simulated by using MODFLOW and companion software. Simulated hydrologic modifications examined the effects of (1) removing the beaver dams in US-12 ditch, (2) discontinuing seepage of water from the filtration pond east of East Long Lake, (3) discontinuing discharge from US-12 ditch to the GSD sewer system, (4) decreasing discharge from US-12 ditch to the GSD sewer system, (5) connecting East Long Lake and West Long Lake, (6) deepening County Line Road ditch, and (7) raising and lowering the water level of Lake Michigan. Results from collected hydrologic data indicate that East Long Lake functioned as an area of groundwater recharge during October 2002 and a “flow-through” lake during March 2011, with the groundwater divide south of US-12. Wetlands to the south of West Long Lake act as points of recharge to the surficial aquifer in both dry- and wet-weather conditions. Among the noteworthy results from a dry-weather groundwater flow model simulation are (1) US-12 ditch does not receive water from East Long Lake or West Long Lake, (2) the filtration pond at the east end of East Long Lake, when active, contributed approximately 10 percent of the total water entering East Long Lake, and (3) County Line Road ditch has little effect on simulated water level. Among the noteworthy results from a wet-weather groundwater flow simulation are (1) US-12 ditch does not receive water from East Long Lake or West Long Lake, (2) when the seepage from the filtration pond to the surficial aquifer is not active, sources of inflow to East Long Lake are restricted to only precipitation (46 percent of total) and inflow from the surficial aquifer (54 percent of total), and (3) County Line Road ditch bisects the groundwater divide and creates two water-table mounds south of US-12. The results from a series of model scenarios simulating certain engineering controls and changes in Lake Michigan levels include the following: (1) The simulated removal of beaver dams in US-12 ditch during a wet-weather simulation increased discharge from the ditch to the Gary Sanitary system by 13 percent. (2) Discontinuation of seepage from the filtration pond east of East Long Lake decreased discharge from US-12 ditch to the Gary Sanitary system by 2.3 percent. (3) Simulated discontinuation of discharge from the US-12 ditch to the GSD sewer system increased the area where the water table was estimated to be above the land surface beyond the inundated area in the initial wet-weather simulation. (4) Simulated modifications to the control structure at the discharge point of US-12 ditch to the GSD sewer system can decrease discharge by as much as 61 percent while increasing the simulated inundated area during dry weather and decrease discharge as much as 6 percent while increasing the simulated inundated area during wet weather. (5) Deepening of County Line Road ditch can decrease the discharge from US-12 ditch by 26 percent during dry weather and 24 percent during wet weather, as well as decrease the extent of flooded areas south and east of the filtration pond near Ogden Dunes. (7) The increase of the Lake Michigan water level to match the historical maximum can increase the discharge from US-12 ditch by 14 percent during dry weather and by 9.6 percent during wet weather. (8) The decrease of the Lake Michigan water level to match the historical minimum can decrease the discharge from US-12 ditch by 7.4 percent during dry weather and by 3.1 percent during wet weather. The results of this study can be used by water-resource managers to understand how surrounding ditches affect water levels in East and West Long Lake and in the surrounding wetlands and residential areas. The groundwater model developed in this study can be applied in the future to answer questions about how alterations to the drainage system in the area will affect water levels in East and West Long Lake and surrounding areas. The modeling methods developed in this study provide a template for other studies of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the shallow surficial aquifer in northern Indiana, and in similar hydrologic settings that include surficial sand aquifers in coastal settings.

Indiana↗

Ozone-induced changes in natural organic matter (NOM) structure

Hydrophobic organic acids (combined humic and fulvic acids), obtained from an Antarctic Lake with predominantly microbially derived organic carbon sources and two US river systems with terrestrial organic carbon sources, were ozonated. Several analyses, including 13 C‐NMR, UV absorbance, fluorescence, hydrophobic/transphilic classification, and potentiometric titrations, were performed before and after ozonation. Ozonation reduced aromatic carbon content, selectively reducing phenolic carbon content. Ozonation of the samples resulted in increased aliphatic, carboxyl, plus acetal and ketal anomeric carbon content and shifted towards less hydrophobic compounds.

Ozone: Science and Engineering↗

Flood Study of Warren Brook in Alstead and Cold River in Alstead, Langdon, and Walpole, New Hampshire, 2005

This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles as determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady flow water-surface profiles were developed for two stream reaches: the Cold River from its confluence with the Connecticut River in Walpole, through Alstead to the McDermott Bridge in Langdon, NH, and Warren Brook from its confluence with the Cold River to Warren Lake in Alstead, NH. Flood events of a magnitude, which are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 10-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval), were modeled using HEC-RAS as these flood events are recognized as being significant for flood-plain management, determination of flood insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. These flood events are referred to as the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The recurrence intervals represent the long-term average between floods of a specific magnitude. The risk of experiencing rare floods at short intervals or within the same year increases when periods greater than one year are considered. The analyses in this study reflect the flooding potentials based on conditions existing in the communities of Walpole, Alstead and Langdon at the time of completion of this study.

Open-File Report↗

Effect of uncertainty of discharge data on uncertainty of discharge simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana

Simulation models of watershed hydrology (also referred to as “rainfall-runoff models”) are calibrated to the best available streamflow data, which are typically published discharge time series at the outlet of the watershed. Even after calibration, the model generally cannot replicate the published discharges because of simplifications of the physical system embedded in the model structure and uncertainties of the input data and of the estimated model parameters, which, although optimized for the given calibration data, remain uncertain. The input data errors are caused by uncertainties in the forcing data, such as precipitation and other climatological data, and in the published discharges used for calibration. In the numerical algorithms used for calibration, the published discharges are often assumed to be without error, but they are themselves uncertain, typically having been computed using ratings, which are models fitted to uncertain discharge measurements. In this study, uncertainty of published daily discharge data and how the discharge uncertainty is transmitted to the parameter values of the Hydrological Simulation Program–FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model and to the simulated discharge at both calibration and prediction locations were investigated for the Lake Michigan diversion in northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. The HSPF model used in this study is used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of quantifying the diversion of water from Lake Michigan by the State of Illinois. In this study, the model is calibrated jointly at two watersheds in the study area; the resulting model is considered the base model in this study. Seven other gaged watersheds in the study area are used for testing predictive simulations. A Bayesian rating curve estimation (BaRatin) approach, the BaRatin stage-period-discharge (SPD) method, was used to estimate the uncertainty of the published discharge from the calibration watersheds. To characterize the effect of the discharge uncertainty on parameter values, the HSPF model parameters were recalibrated to 17 nonrandomly selected pairs of discharge series from the BaRatin SPD analysis. To provide an indicator of the effect of parameter uncertainty to compare to the effect of discharge uncertainty, 1,000 parameter sets also were randomly generated from the estimated parameter covariance matrix of the base model. The recalibrated and random parameter sets were then used in HSPF simulations of discharge at the two calibration watersheds and at the seven prediction watersheds. Selected discharge summary statistics—the period-of-study (POS, water years 1997 to 2015) mean discharge, selected flow-duration curve (FDC) quantiles, and water year mean discharges—are used to characterize the variability between simulated and published discharge. A normalized variability index ( V N ) is used as a measure of the uncertainty of flow statistics arising from the uncertainty of the sources considered in this study. When this index is at least 1, the variability of the simulations is large enough to explain the median error between simulated and published values, although offsetting errors from other sources are also likely. When the index is appreciably less than 1, the variability of the simulations is clearly insufficient to explain the median error between simulated and published values. At the two calibration watersheds and for results of the two simulation sets considered together, the V N values ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 for POS mean discharge, from 0.3 to 0.6 in the median for a set of FDC quantiles, and from 0.1 to 0.2 in the median for water year mean discharges. These values indicate that substantial uncertainty remains unexplained. Even though two watersheds were used in calibration, that calibration was highly constrained because it was applied to the watersheds simultaneously and was subject to parameter regularization that constrained the adjustment of the parameters from their initial values. These constraints were applied to avoid overfitting to the calibration watersheds and thus to increase the likelihood that the resulting parameters would give accurate results at watersheds not used in the calibration, but they created a parameter transfer error in the calibration watershed results shown by the balancing of errors between the two watersheds. Additional remaining error sources include model structural error and meteorological forcing error to the degree that the calibration was unable to adjust the parameters to account for these errors. At the prediction watersheds, the corresponding V N values were almost always substantially lower than those values at the calibration watersheds. This result is expected because the prediction watersheds have additional uncertainty, including parameter transfer error. The work described in this report provides preliminary estimates of a limited range of sources of error in predicted discharge uncertainty. Future work would be beneficial to obtain a better statistical characterization of the effect of the uncertainty of calibration discharge series and to address additional sources of uncertainty, such as from precipitation input data used in calibration and prediction and from structural (model) errors.

Illinois, Indiana↗

Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project--Biological Resources

Riparian (streamside) vegetation communities are of interest in the context of the Front Range Infrastructure Resources Project (FRIRP) because they are often a focal point for conflicting societal demands. The cottonwoods and willows comprising these communities are structurally complex compared to the surrounding landscape and support diverse assemblages of mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. However, riparian areas are also primary sites for water development, agriculture, grazing, sand and gravel mining, and recreation, each of which may limit other uses. Direct and indirect impacts of these activities have led to exploration of new opportunities and techniques for restoring disturbed riparian habitats and to greater concern for some of the scarce species that inhabit them.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

Sediment cores and chemistry for the Kootenai River White Sturgeon Habitat Restoration Project, Boundary County, Idaho

The Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, in cooperation with local, State, Federal, and Canadian agency co-managers and scientists, is assessing the feasibility of a Kootenai River habitat restoration project in Boundary County, Idaho. This project is oriented toward recovery of the endangered Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) population, and simultaneously targets habitat-based recovery of other native river biota. Projects currently (2010) under consideration include modifying the channel and flood plain, installing in-stream structures, and creating wetlands to improve the physical and biological functions of the ecosystem. River restoration is a complex undertaking that requires a thorough understanding of the river. To assist in evaluating the feasibility of this endeavor, the U.S. Geological Survey collected and analyzed the physical and chemical nature of sediment cores collected at 24 locations in the river. Core depths ranged from 4.6 to 15.2 meters; 21 cores reached a depth of 15.2 meters. The sediment was screened for the presence of chemical constituents that could have harmful effects if released during restoration activities. The analysis shows that concentrations of harmful chemical constituents do not exceed guideline limits that were published by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 2006.

Idaho↗

Use of surrogate technologies to estimate suspended sediment in the Clearwater River, Idaho, and Snake River, Washington, 2008-10

Elevated levels of fluvial sediment can reduce the biological productivity of aquatic systems, impair freshwater quality, decrease reservoir storage capacity, and decrease the capacity of hydraulic structures. The need to measure fluvial sediment has led to the development of sediment surrogate technologies, particularly in locations where streamflow alone is not a good estimator of sediment load because of regulated flow, load hysteresis, episodic sediment sources, and non-equilibrium sediment transport. An effective surrogate technology is low maintenance and sturdy over a range of hydrologic conditions, and measured variables can be modeled to estimate suspended-sediment concentration (SSC), load, and duration of elevated levels on a real-time basis. Among the most promising techniques is the measurement of acoustic backscatter strength using acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) deployed in rivers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, evaluated the use of acoustic backscatter, turbidity, laser diffraction, and streamflow as surrogates for estimating real-time SSC and loads in the Clearwater and Snake Rivers, which adjoin in Lewiston, Idaho, and flow into Lower Granite Reservoir. The study was conducted from May 2008 to September 2010 and is part of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Lower Snake River Programmatic Sediment Management Plan to identify and manage sediment sources in basins draining into lower Snake River reservoirs. Commercially available acoustic instruments have shown great promise in sediment surrogate studies because they require little maintenance and measure profiles of the surrogate parameter across a sampling volume rather than at a single point. The strength of acoustic backscatter theoretically increases as more particles are suspended in the water to reflect the acoustic pulse emitted by the ADVM. ADVMs of different frequencies (0.5, 1.5, and 3 Megahertz) were tested to target various sediment grain sizes. Laser diffraction and turbidity also were tested as surrogate technologies. Models between SSC and surrogate variables were developed using ordinary least-squares regression. Acoustic backscatter using the high frequency ADVM at each site was the best predictor of sediment, explaining 93 and 92 percent of the variability in SSC and matching sediment sample data within +8.6 and +10 percent, on average, at the Clearwater River and Snake River study sites, respectively. Additional surrogate models were developed to estimate sand and fines fractions of suspended sediment based on acoustic backscatter. Acoustic backscatter generally appears to be a better estimator of suspended sediment concentration and load over short (storm event and monthly) and long (annual) time scales than transport curves derived solely from the regression of conventional sediment measurements and streamflow. Changing grain sizes, the presence of organic matter, and aggregation of sediments in the river likely introduce some variability in the model between acoustic backscatter and SSC.

Idaho;Washington↗

U.S. Geological Survey Activities Related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal Year 2005

Introduction This report describes the activities that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, educational institutions, and individuals during Federal fiscal year (FY) 2005. Most of these USGS activities were collaborations with Tribes, Tribal organizations, or professional societies. Others were conducted cooperatively with the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) or other Federal entities. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). The USGS does not have regulatory or land management responsibilities. As described in this report, there are many USGS activities that are directly relevant to American Indians, Alaska Natives, and to Native lands. A USGS website, dedicated to making USGS more accessible to American Indians, Alaska Natives, their governments, and institutions, is available at www.usgs.gov/indian. This website includes information on how to contact USGS American Indian/Alaska Native Liaisons, training opportunities, and links to other information resources. This report and previous editions are also available through the website. The USGS realizes that Native knowledge and cultural traditions of living in harmony with nature result in unique Native perspectives that enrich USGS studies. USGS seeks to increase the sensitivity and openness of its scientists to the breadth of Native knowledge, expanding the information on which their research is based. USGS scientific studies include data collection, mapping, natural resource modeling, and research projects. These projects typically last 2 or 3 years, although some are parts of longer-term activities. Some projects are funded cooperatively, with USGS funds matched or supplemented by individual Tribal governments, or by the BIA. These projects may also receive funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Indian Health Service (part of the Department of Health and Human Services), or other Federal agencies. The USGS routinely works with its sister bureaus in the Department of the Interior to provide the scientific information and expertise needed to meet the Department's science priorities. Some USGS activities described in this report are conducted as collateral tasks that result from USGS employees identifying and responding to perceived needs. These endeavors are usually prompted by employee interests and frequently involve educational activities. The education is often a reciprocal learning and teaching experience for USGS employees and for Native participants. Through these activities, USGS employees help to fulfill a mission of the USGS - to demonstrate scientific relevance - while helping their fellow citizens. Increasingly, some of the educational activities are becoming parts of formal USGS projects. USGS employees also take initiative in assisting American Indians and Alaska Natives by participating in several organizations that promote awareness of science career opportunities among Native peoples and help build support and communication networks. One such group is the American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES). USGS employees join this organization on a voluntary basis, bringing the benefits of this expanded network to the USGS, as many employees do with other professional organizations. The studies briefly described in this report span subsistence issues, wildlife health, water quality, mineral resources, monitoring and modeling to gather information and predict what may happen in the future. Although each project description relates to Native Americans in some way, the projects vary widely, including who conducted the work, the goals and products, the duration of the study, and whether it was local or covered a broad area. Each major organizational unit of the USGS has identified an American Indian/Alaska Native liaison. The USGS has a regional organizational structure, with Western, Central,

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Beacon Hill end moraine, Boston: new explanation of an important urban feature

The usefulness of geology to engineers is in direct proportion to how well it helps us predict the subsurface; these predictions, in turn, depend on our knowledge of the geomorphic processes that molded the terrain. The uncertainties of interpretation are particularly great in glaciated terrain because our understanding of both glacial processes and history is so incomplete, a fact well illustrated in Beacon Hill. Recent construction activities in the eastern part of the hill, until now classified as a drumlin, have shown that it is better interpreted as an end moraine formed by a Wisconsonian glacial readvance. Instead of the firm till that was anticipated as foundation material, excavations exposed a complex of sand, gravel, and clay, with only minor zones of till. The structure of these deposits strongly suggests that originally they were plates of the glacial bed that froze to the glacier and were transported englacially. Thrust faulting and other deformations are glacial structures formed within the ice in the glacier's terminal zone. In spite of the complex englacial history, these deposits lost little of their original appearance and intergranular relationships. Upon deglaciation, the frozen moraine thawed, and slumping formed complex secondary structures on the ridge's lower flanks.

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