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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2010

A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems

To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need an improvedunderstanding of how tidal marsh ecosystem services will respond to sea-level rise and increased nitrogen (N) loading to coastal areas. Here we review existing literature to better understand how these interacting perturbations s will likely impact N removal by tidal marshes. We propose that the keyy factors controlling long-term changes in N removal are plant-community changes, soil accretion rates, surface-subsurface flow paths, marsh geomorphology microbial communities, and substrates for microbial reactions. Feedbacks affecting relative elevations and sediment accretion ratess will serve as dominant controls on future N removal throughout the marsh. Given marsh persistence, we hypothesize that the processes dominating N removal will vary laterally across the marsh and longitudinallyalong the estuarine gradient. In salt marsh interiors, where nitrate reduction rates are often limited by delivery of nitrate to bacterial communities, reductions in groundwater discharge due to sea level rise may trigger a net reduction in N removal. In freshwater marshes, we expect a decreasee in N removal efficiency due to increased sulfide concentrations. Sulfide encroachment will increase the relative importance of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium and lead to greater bacterial nitrogen immobilization, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem that retains more N and is less effective at permanent N removal from the watershed. In contrast, we predict that sealevel–driven expansion of the tidal creek network and the degree of surface-subsurface exchange flux through tidal creek banks will result in greater N-removal efficiency from these locations.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2010

Climate change, cranes, and temperate floodplain ecosystems

Floodplain ecosystems provide important habitat to cranes globally. Lateral, longitudinal, vertical, and temporal hydrologic connectivity in rivers is essential to maintaining the functions and values of these systems. Agricultural development, flood control, water diversions, dams, and other anthropogenic activities have greatly affected hydrologic connectivity of river systems worldwide and altered the functional capacity of these systems. Although the specific effects of climate change in any given area are unknown, increased intensity and frequency of flooding and droughts and increased air and water temperatures are among many potential effects that can act synergistically with existing human modifications in these systems to create even greater challenges in maintaining ecosystem productivity. In this paper, I review basic hydrologic and geomorphic processes of river systems and use three North American rivers (Guadalupe, Platte, and Rio Grande) that are important to cranes as case studies to illustrate the challenges facing managers tasked with balancing the needs of cranes and people in the face of an uncertain climatic future. Each river system has unique natural and anthropogenic characteristics that will affect conservation strategies. Mitigating the effects of climate change on river systems necessitates an understanding of river/floodplain/landscape linkages, which include people and their laws as well as existing floodplain ecosystem conditions.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Impacts of land-use change to ecosystem services

Increasing human populations on the landscape and globe coincide with increasing demands for food, energy, and other natural resources, with generally negative impacts to wildlife habitat, air and water quality, and natural scenery. Here we define and describe the impacts of land-use change on ecosystem services – the services that ecosystems provide humans such as filtering air and water, providing food, resources, recreation, and esthetics. We show how the human footprint is rapidly expanding due to population growth, demand for resources, and globalization. Increased trade and transportation has brought all the continents back together, creating new challenges for conserving native species and ecosystems.

Book chapter↗
USGS2002

Distribution of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 1990-2000

The Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) has been expanding its range during the past 2 decades and now occupies historic habitats that had been vacant. A current understanding of the distribution of grizzly bears within the ecosystem is useful in the recovery process and to help guide the state and federal land management agencies and state wildlife agencies of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana as they prepare management plans. We used kernel estimators to develop distribution maps of occupied habitats based on initial sightings of unduplicated females (n = 300) with cubs-of-the-year, information from radiomarked bears (n = 105), and locations of conflicts, confrontations, and mortalities (n = 1,235). Although each data set was constrained by potential sampling bias, together they provided insight into areas within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) currently occupied by grizzly bears. The current distribution (1990-2000) extends beyond the recovery zone identified in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Recovery Plan. Range expansion is particularly evident in the southern portion of the ecosystem in Wyoming. A comparison of our results from the 1990s to previously published distribution maps show an approximate increase in occupied habitat of 48% and 34% from the 1970s and 1980s, respectively. We discuss data biases and problems implicit to the analysis.

Wyoming↗
USGS2002

Impacts of aquatic nonindigenous invasive species on the Lake Erie ecosystem

Lake Erie is particularly vulnerable to the introduction and establishment of aquatic nonindigenous invasive species (NIS) populations. A minimum of 144 aquatic NIS have been recorded in the Lake Erie basin including several species [e.g., Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum ); zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha ); quagga mussel (Dreissena bugensis); an amphipod (Echinogammarus ischnus); round goby (Neogobius melanostomus); and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus )] that have had discernible impacts on the lake's ecology. NIS pose threats to the Lake Erie ecosystem for a variety of reasons including their ability to proliferate quickly, compete with native species, and transfer contaminants (e.g., PCBs) and disease through the food web. Six of the 14 beneficial use impairments listed in Annex 2 of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement are impaired in Lake Erie, in part as a result of the introduction of NIS. The Lake Erie Lakewide Management Plan (LaMP) has adopted an ecosystem approach to restore beneficial use impairments in the lake. Furthermore, a research consortium, known as the Lake Erie Millennium Network, is working alongside the LaMP, to address research problems regarding NIS, the loss of habitat, and the role of contaminants in the Lake Erie ecosystem.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1995

USGS supports ecosystem management in the San Francisco bay and delta

In the past several years, the Department of the Interior has ,l?laced particular emphasis on "ecosystem management" - the integration of scientific knowledge of ecological relationships with resource management practices to sustain ecological, cultural, and economic systems in broad habitat areas; eg., forest, desert, and aquatic habitats. The goal of ecosystem management is to understand the habitat requirements of many species and thereby assess the impact of a variety of human activities on regional biodiversity rather than to manage for individual species. In support of the management of the natural resources of San Francisco Bay and the delta, the USGS is augmenting its ongoing research program to provide additional research, monitoring, and assessment information and to improve the availability of that information. Following a workshop with resource and regulatory agency representatives, hosted by the USGS in early 1994, USGS researchers identified specific areas where existing and new scientific information could contribute to resolving some of the critical bay and delta land and aquatic management issues. The "ecosystems initiative" effort now underway addresses questions in three areas: Freshwater flow, including sediment and contaminant transport. Wetlands. Information and data access. Following is a brief description of activities being supported by this initiative.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗
USGS2014

Status of whitebarkpine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: A step-trend analysis comparing 2004-2007 to 2008-2011

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a foundation and keystone species in upper subalpine environments of the northern Rocky Mountains that strongly influences the biodiversity and productivity of high-elevation ecosystems (Tomback et al. 2001, Ellison et al. 2005). Throughout its historic range, whitebark pine has decreased significantly as a major component of high-elevation forests. As a result, it is critical to understand the challenges to whitebark pine—not only at the tree and stand level, but also as these factors influence the distribution of whitebark pine across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In 2003, the National Park Service (NPS) Greater Yellowstone Inventory & Monitoring Network identified whitebark pine as one of twelve significant natural resource indicators or vital signs to monitor (Jean et al. 2005, Fancy et al. 2009) and initiated a long-term, collaborative monitoring program. Partners in this effort include the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Forest Service, and Montana State University with representatives from each comprising the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group. The objectives of the monitoring program are to assess trends in (1) the proportion of live, whitebark pine trees (>1.4-m tall) infected with white pine blister rust (blister rust); (2) to document blister rust infection severity by the occurrence and location of persisting and new infections; (3) to determine mortality of whitebark pine trees and describe potential factors contributing to the death of trees; and (4) to assess the multiple components of the recruitment of understory whitebark pine into the reproductive population. In this report we summarize the past eight years (2004-2011) of whitebark pine status and trend monitoring in the GYE. Our study area encompasses six national forests (NF), two national parks (NP), as well as state and private lands in portions of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho; this area is collectively described as the GYE here and in other studies. The sampling design is a probabilistic, twostage cluster design with stands of whitebark pine as the primary units and 10x50 m belt transects as the secondary units. Primary sampling units (stands) were selected randomly from a sample frame of approximately 10,770 mapped pure and mixed whitebark pine stands ≥2.0 hectares in the GYE (Dixon 1997, Landenburger 2012). From 2004 through 2007 (monitoring transect establishment or initial time-step), we established 176 permanent belt transects (secondary sampling units=176) in 150 whitebark pine stands and permanently marked approximately 4,740 individual trees >1.4 m tall to monitor long-term changes in blister rust infection and survival rates. Between 2008 and 2011 (revisit time-step), these same 176 transects were surveyed and again all previously tagged trees were observed for changes in blister rust infection and survival status. Objective 1. Using a combined ratio estimator, we estimated the proportion of live trees infected in the GYE in the initial time-step (2004-2007) to be 0.22 (0.031 SE). Following the completion of all surveys in the revisit time-step (2008-2011), we estimated the proportion of live trees infected with white pine blister rust as 0.23 (0.028 SE; Table 2). We detected no significant change in the proportion of trees infected in the GYE between the two time-steps. Objective 2. We documented blister rust canker locations as occurring in the canopy or bole. We compared changes in canker position between the initial time-step (2004-2007) and the revisit time-step (2008-2011) in order to assess changes in infection severity. This analysis included the 3,795 trees tagged during the initial time-step that were located and documented as alive at the end of the revisit time-step. At the end of the revisit time-step, we found 1,217 trees infected with blister rust. This includes the 287 newly tagged trees in the revisit time step of which 14 had documented infections. Of these 1,217 trees, 780 trees were infected with blister rust in both time steps. Trees with only canopy cankers made up approximately 43% (519 trees) of the total number of trees infected with blister rust at the end of the revisit time-step, while trees with only bole cankers comprised 20% (252 trees), and those with both canopy and bole cankers included 37% (446 trees) of the infected sample. A bole infection is considered to be more consequential than a canopy canker, as it compromises not only the overall longevity of the tree, but its functional capacity for reproductive output as well (Kendall and Arno 1990, Campbell and Antos 2000, McDonald and Hoff 2001, Schwandt and Kegley 2004). In addition to infection location, we also documented infection transition between the canopy and bole. Of the 780 live trees that were infected with blister rust in both time-steps, approximately 31% (242) maintained canopy cankers and 36% (281) retained bole infections at the end of the revisit time-step. Infection transition from canopy to bole occurred in 30% (234) of the revisit time-step trees while 3% (23) transitioned from bole to canopy infections during this period. Objective 3. To determine whitebark pine mortality, we resurveyed all belt transects to reassess the life status of permanently tagged trees >1.4 m tall. We compared the total number of live tagged trees recorded during monitoring transect establishment to the total number of resurveyed dead tagged trees recorded during the revisit time-step and identified all potential mortality-influencing conditions (blister rust, mountain pine beetle, fire and other). By the end of the revisit time-step, we observed a total of 975 dead tagged whitebark pine trees; using a ratio estimator, this represents a loss of approximately 20% (SE=4.35%) of the original live tagged tree population (GYWPMWG 2012). Objective 4. To investigate the proportion of live, reproducing tagged trees, we divided the total number of positively identified cone-bearing trees by the total number of live trees in the tagged tree sample at the end of the revisit time-step. To approximate the average density of recruitment trees per stand, trees ≤1.4 m tall were summed by stand (within the 500 m² transect area) and divided by the total number of stands. Reproducing trees made up approximately 24% (996 trees) of the total live tagged population at the end of the revisit time-step. Differentiating between whitebark pine and limber pine seedlings or saplings is problematic given the absence of cones or cone scars. Therefore, understory summaries as presented in this report may include individuals of both species when they are sympatric in a stand. The average density of small trees ≤1.4 m tall was 53 understory trees per 500 m². Raw counts of these understory individuals ranged from 0-635 small trees per belt transect. In addition, a total of 287 trees were added to the tagged tree population by the end of 2011. These newly tagged trees were individuals that upon subsequent revisits had reached a height of >1.4 m tall and subsequently added to the sample. Throughout the past decade in the GYE, monitoring has helped document shifts in whitebark pine forests; whitebark pine stands have been impacted by insect, pathogen, wildland fire, and other disturbance events. Blister rust infection is ubiquitous throughout the ecosystem and infection proportions are variable across the region. And while we have documented mortality of whitebark pine, we have also recorded considerable recruitment. We provide this first step-trend report as a quantifiable baseline for understanding the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Many aspects of whitebark pine health are highly variable across the range of its distribution in the GYE. Through sustained implementation of the monitoring program, we will continue efforts to document and quantify whitebark pine forest dynamics as they arise under periodic upsurges in insect, pathogen, fire episodes, and climatic events in the GYE. Since its inception, this monitoring program perseveres as one of the only sustained longterm efforts conducted in the GYE with a singular purpose to track the health and status of this prominent keystone species.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗
USGS2016

Science framework for the conservation and restoration strategy of DOI secretarial order 3336: Utilizing resilience and resistance concepts to assess threats to sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse, prioritize conservation and restoration actions, and inform management strategies

The Science Framework for the Conservation and Restoration Strategy of the Department of the Interior, Secretarial Order 3336 (SO 3336), Rangeland Fire Prevention, Management and Restoration, provides a strategic, multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies across the sagebrush biome. The emphasis of this version is on sagebrush ecosystems and greater sage-grouse. The Science Framework uses a six step process in which sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive annual grasses is linked to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. The predominant ecosystem and anthropogenic threats are assessed, and a habitat matrix is developed that helps decision makers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies at regional and local scales. Areas are prioritized for management action using a geospatial approach that overlays resilience and resistance, species habitat information, and predominant threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of priority areas for management and the most appropriate management actions at regional to local scales. The Science Framework and geospatial crosscut are intended to complement the mitigation strategies associated with the Greater Sage-Grouse Land Use Plan amendments for the Department of the Interior Bureaus, such as the Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Forest Service.

Report↗
USGS2012

Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2017

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area: Loss of a pine barrens ecosystem

The Moquah Barrens Research Natural Area (RNA) was established by the Chequamegon National Forest and the Lakes States Forest Experiment Station in 1935 with a research objective well-suited to the needs of the Forest Service and the scientific understanding of ecosystem function prevalent at the time of establishment. The original research plan was never implemented, which led to a joint Forest-Station decision in 1956 to disestablish the RNA. However, that decision was never implemented. A series of management decisions made after 1956 led to the loss of the pine barrens ecosystem originally encompassed by the RNA. This loss is not irretrievable and the work necessary to recover the original ecosystem is possible under existing RNA management guidelines. The experience of the Moquah Barrens RNA can be used by the Forest Service to improve overall management of the entire system of research natural areas. Two main areas of opportunity are identified: 1) implement an improved approach to managing official records associated with RNAs; and 2) adopt a management framework suitable for long-term ecological projects.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2016

A Tour de Force by Hawaii's invasive mammals: establishment, takeover, ecosystem restoration through eradication

Invasive mammals, large and small, have irreversibly altered Hawaii's ecosystems in numerous cases through unnatural herbivory, predation, and the transmission of zoonotic diseases, thereby causing the disproportionate extinction of flora and fauna that occur nowhere else on Earth. The control and eradication of invasive mammals is the single most expensive management activity necessary for restoring ecological integrity to many natural areas of Hawai'i and other Pacific Islands, and has already advanced the restoration of native biota. Science applications supporting management efforts have been shaped by longstanding collaborative federal research programs over the past four decades. Consequently, feral goats have been removed from > l ,3 58 km2, and feral pigs have been removed from >723 km2 of lands in Hawai'i, bringing about the gradual recovery of forest ecosystems. The exclusion of other non-native ungulates and invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are now capable of excluding feral cats from large areas to protect endangered native waterfowl and nesting seabirds. Rodenticides that have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai'i have been used to eradicate rats from small offshore islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to montane environment of larger islands to protect forest birds. Forward-looking infrared radar is also being applied to locate cryptic wild ungulates that were more recently introduced to some islands. All invasive mammals have been eradicated from some smaller islands, resulting in the restoration of some ecosystem processes such as natural forest regeneration, but changes in other processes such as fire regimes and nutrient cycling remain more difficult to reverse at larger landscape scales. It may soon be possible to manage areas on larger islands to be free of invasive mammals at least during seasonally important periods for native species, but at the same time, new mammal introductions continue to occur.

Hawaii↗
USGS2018

Ecological resilience indicators for mangrove ecosystems

Mangrove ecosystems are coastal wetland ecosystems dominated by mangrove species that are typically found in the intertidal zone, characterized by frequently flooded saline soil conditions. The majority of the approximately 500,000 acres of mangrove ecosystem in the United States occurs in the NGoM, and almost all of that is in Florida, with over 90 percent in the four southern counties of Lee, Collier, Miami-Dade, and Monroe. Scattered stands and individuals occur north and westward into Louisiana and Texas (Osland et al., 2016). The three common mangrove species are: black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). The mangrove system described in this project includes Tidal Mangrove Shrubland and Tidal Mangrove Forest as classified in CMECS (FGDC, 2012). It is classified as Caribbean Fringe Mangrove (G004) in the USNVC (2016), with a variety of distinct associations, based on species dominance and ecological setting.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

User guide to the FireCLIME Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Tool: A rapid and flexible system for assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate-fire interactions

Decisionmakers need better methods for identifying critical ecosystem vulnerabilities to changing climate and fire regimes. Climate-wildfire-vegetation interactions are complex and hinder classification and projection necessary for development of management strategies. One such vulnerability assessment (VA) is FireCLIME VA, which allows users to compare management strategies under various climate scenarios and gauge the potential effectiveness of those strategies for reducing undesirable impacts of climate on wildfire regimes and resulting impacts of wildfire on natural ecosystems. Developed as part of the SW FireCLIME science-management partnership, FireCLIME is meant to be quick, flexible, and amendable to a range of data inputs (literature review, expert, and modeling or monitoring activities), allowing users to easily compare various fire-climate outcomes for one or more ecosystems of interest. Users can use literature, hypothetical scenarios, or quantitative data to implement the FireCLIME VA tool. This tool, unlike other vulnerability assessment, is best used iteratively to explore a range of possible scenarios and management strategies.

Report↗
USGS2019

Santa Barbara area coastal ecosystem vulnerability assessment

The Santa Barbara Area Coastal Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment (SBA CEVA) is a multidisciplinary research project that investigates future changes to southern Santa Barbara County climate, beaches, watersheds, wetland habitats and beach ecosystems. The target audience is local land use planners and decision makers. The main objective is to provide information that assists the Cities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, and Goleta, the County of Santa Barbara, and UC Santa Barbara in climate adaptation planning with a clear focus on coastal ecosystems. Led by California Sea Grant, SBA CEVA was developed from the work of three of the state’s leading ecological and climatological research programs: UCSB’s Santa Barbara Coastal Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program, the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) and their activities within the California and Nevada Applications Program Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (CNAP RISA), the California 4th Climate Assessment and the Southwest Climate Science Center Program, and USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

California↗
USGS2021

Informing future condition scenario planning for habitat specialists of the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem of South Florida

This project evaluated habitat conditions for two species found in the imperiled pine rockland ecosystem—the Rim Rock Crowned Snake ( Tantilla oolitica ) and the Key Ring-Necked Snake ( Diadophis punctatus acricus ). The Rim Rock Crowned Snake historically occurred in eastern Miami-Dade County (hereafter, mainland) as well as throughout the Florida Keys, whereas the Key Ring-Necked Snake occurs only in lower Florida Keys (Enge et al. 2004; Mays and Enge 2016). Both species are very elusive, small (< 20 cm in length) and primarily fossorial. Pine rockland habitat is rapidly disappearing in South Florida, with < 3 percent of its original extent remaining. Saltwater intrusion from hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), and human development pose the greatest threats to the longevity of this ecosystem which, in turn, places species that are endemic to this unique habitat at risk of extinction. The Rim Rock Crowned Snake and the Key Ringed-Necked Snake are being considered for listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). To aid the agency’s decision, it must be able to forecast species’ responses to potential future environmental conditions, as well as to different conservation and management actions. Yet, the information needed to complete these forecasts—such as population trends, life history traits, habitat use, and future land use and climate conditions—is often lacking for most rare species. This is especially problematic for assessments of species resiliency to changes in climate and land use. When these types of data are lacking, information on habitat quality can be used to help determine how a species will respond to change. First, this project gathered current and historical records for both species from various sources such as museum specimens, inventories, and other personal account. Then, we identified potential future changes in habitat that could result from different management actions, such as habitat acquisition or restoration, and environmental conditions, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and rates of SLR. Researchers then explored the potential impacts of these habitat condition changes on the Rim Rock Crowned Snake and Key Ring-Necked Snake. This information can be used by the USFWS to help make decisions about the need to protect these species under the Endangered Species Act and could inform the conservation, management, and recovery of other at-risk species found in the pine rockland ecosystem. This work supports the Secretary of Interior’s priority to create a conservation stewardship legacy by using science to identify best practices to manage land and water resource and adapt to changes in the environment.

Florida↗
USGS2007

Optimization of an ecosystem model through the assimilation of eddy flux observations using a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter

The parameters of ecosystem models are conventionally optimized through nonsequential inversion methods, which treat observations as a whole and lack the flexibility to investigate possible temporal evolution of the model parameters. This research developed a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) to assess to what extent the parameters and state variables of an ecosystem model can be simultaneously optimized through the assimilation of eddy flux observations. The performance of the SEnKF was demonstrated in one case study: the assimilation of measurements of carbon exchange between a mixed forest and the atmosphere at Niwot Ridge Forest (Colorado, USA) from 2000 to 2004 into a carbon flux partition model. Our analyses demonstrated that some model parameters, such as light use efficiency and respiration coefficients, were highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily to seasonal time scales. Light use efficiency was strongly seasonal. Model predictions based on parameters modified by the SEnKF were much improved, compared to predictions made without progressive data assimilation. The SEnKF reduced the variance of state variables that is caused by uncertainties of parameters and driving variables. The analysis of net ecosystem exchange of carbon between the forest and the atmosphere was improved.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗