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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Nodal seismic deployment on Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii: Dataset and preliminary insights

Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on Earth, comprising ∼51% of the Island of Hawai‘i’s landmass and posing significant risks to the island’s communities, infrastructure, and natural environment. Historical eruptions have produced lava flows that have reached the ocean in as little as 3 hr. The timing and location of such lava flows in the past 200 yr underscore how critical determination of the location and geometry of magma storage and structure is for volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Now, after nearly 38 yr of volcanic quiescence, Mauna Loa has erupted again. On 27 November 2022, fissures initiated within the summit caldera and then migrated to the northeast rift zone, where they generated a large lava flow that threatened a major highway. To improve our understanding of the geometry of this magma system, we deployed a temporary nodal array on Mauna Loa in the summer of 2024. This increased our seismic coverage sufficiently to image this magmatic system. This nodal array consists of 33 seismometers distributed on and around the volcano and was deployed for over three months to record seismic signals. The primary objective of this project is to resolve the high‐resolution seismic velocity structure and characterize seismic features associated with magma storage and ascent pathways. In this article, we present an overview of the deployment, evaluate the quality of the data, and show example recordings to evaluate the suitability of the data set for future seismic investigations, including earthquake relocation, seismic tomography, and receiver function analysis. Comparisons with nearby permanent broadband and short‐period seismic stations demonstrate that the nodal array recorded high‐quality waveforms, making it a valuable resource for constraining the magmatic system beneath Mauna Loa at multiple scales.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Rare-earth elements

The rare-earth elements (REEs) are 15 elements that range in atomic number from 57 (lanthanum) to 71 (lutetium); they are commonly referred to as the “lanthanides.” Yttrium (atomic number 39) is also commonly regarded as an REE because it shares chemical and physical similarities and has affinities with the lanthanides. Although REEs are not rare in terms of average crustal abundance, the concentrated deposits of REEs are limited in number. Because of their unusual physical and chemical properties, the REEs have diverse defense, energy, industrial, and military technology applications. The glass industry is the leading consumer of REE raw materials, which are used for glass polishing and as additives that provide color and special optical properties to the glass. Lanthanum-based catalysts are used in petroleum refining, and cerium-based catalysts are used in automotive catalytic converters. The use of REEs in magnets is a rapidly increasing application. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets, which are the strongest known type of magnets, are used when space and weight are restrictions. Nickel-metal hydride batteries use anodes made of a lanthanum-based alloys. China, which has led the world production of REEs for decades, accounted for more than 90 percent of global production and supply, on average, during the past decade. Citing a need to retain its limited REE resources to meet domestic requirements as well as concerns about the environmental effects of mining, China began placing restrictions on the supply of REEs in 2010 through the imposition of quotas, licenses, and taxes. As a result, the global rare-earth industry has increased its stockpiling of REEs; explored for deposits outside of China; and promoted new efforts to conserve, recycle, and substitute for REEs. New mine production began at Mount Weld in Western Australia, and numerous other exploration and development projects noted in this chapter are ongoing throughout the world. The REE-bearing minerals are diverse and often complex in composition. At least 245 individual REE-bearing minerals are recognized; they are mainly carbonates, fluorocarbonates, and hydroxylcarbonates (n = 42); oxides (n = 59); silicates (n = 85); and phosphates (n = 26). Many of the world’s significant REE deposits occur in carbonatites, which are carbonate igneous rocks. The REEs also have a strong genetic association with alkaline magmatism. The systematic geologic and chemical processes that explain these observations are not well understood. Economic or potentially economic REE deposits have been found in (a) carbonatites, (b) peralkaline igneous systems, (c) magmatic magnetite-hematite bodies, (d) iron oxide-copper-gold (IOCG) deposits, (e) xenotime-monazite accumulations in mafic gneiss, (f) ion-absorption clay deposits, and (g) monazite-xenotime-bearing placer deposits. Carbonatites have been the world’s main source for the light REEs since the 1960s. Ion-adsorption clay deposits in southern China are the world’s primary source of the heavy REEs. Monazite-bearing placer deposits were important sources of REEs before the mid-1960s and may be again in the future. In recent years, REEs have been produced from large carbonatite bodies mined at the Mountain Pass deposit in California and, in China, at the Bayan Obo deposit in Nei Mongol Autonomous Region, the Maoniuping deposit in Sichuan Province, the Daluxiang deposit in Sichuan Province, and the Weishan deposit in Anhui Province. Alkaline igneous complexes have recently been targeted for exploration because of their enrichments in the heavy REEs. Information relevant to the environmental aspects of REE mining is limited. Little is known about the aquatic toxicity of REEs. The United States lacks drinking water standards for REEs. The concentrations of REEs in environmental media are influenced by their low abundances in crustal rocks and their limited solubility in most groundwaters and surface waters. The scarcity of sulfide minerals, including pyrite, minimizes or eliminates concerns about acid-mine drainage for carbonatite-hosted deposits and alkaline-intrusion-related REE deposits. For now, insights into environmental responses of REE mine wastes must rely on predictive models.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2018

Quantifying and forecasting changes in the areal extent of river valley sediment in response to altered hydrology and land cover

In river valleys, sediment moves between active river channels, near-channel deposits including bars and floodplains, and upland environments such as terraces and aeolian dunefields. Sediment availability is a prerequisite for the sustained transfer of material between these areas, and for the eco-geomorphic functioning of river networks in general. However, the difficulty of monitoring sediment availability and movement at the reach or corridor scale has hindered our ability to quantify and forecast the response of sediment transfer to hydrologic or land cover alterations. Here we leverage spatiotemporally extensive datasets quantifying sediment areal coverage along a 28 km reach of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, southwestern USA. In concert with information on hydrologic alteration and vegetation encroachment resulting from the operation of Glen Canyon Dam (constructed in 1963) upstream of our study reach, we model the relative and combined influence of changes in (a) flow and (b) riparian vegetation extent on the areal extent of sediment available for transport in the river valley over the period from 1921 to 2016. In addition, we use projections of future streamflow and vegetation encroachment to forecast sediment availability over the 20 year period from 2016 to 2036. We find that hydrologic alteration has reduced the areal extent of bare sediment by 9% from the pre- to post-dam periods, whereas vegetation encroachment further reduced bare sediment extent by 45%. Over the next 20 years, the extent of bare sediment is forecast to be reduced by an additional 12%. Our results demonstrate the impact of river regulation, specifically the loss of annual low flows and associated vegetation encroachment, on reducing the sediment available for transfer within river valleys. This work provides an extendable framework for using high-resolution data on streamflow and land cover to assess and forecast the impact of watershed perturbation (e.g. river regulation, land cover shifts, climate change) on sediment connectivity at the corridor scale.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with>85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

Resources Policy↗

USGS2022

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews↗

USGS2025

Disease-driven collapse of the native Kauaʻi avifauna and the rise of introduced bird species

Hawaii hosts one of Earth’s most unique and threatened avifaunas. Upslope migration of mosquito-vectored avian malaria on Kauaʻi (maximum elevation 1,598 m) has likely caused its rapid loss of avifaunal diversity; only 8 of 13 historic forest bird species remain. We update the status and trends of Kauaʻi forest bird populations since the original (1981) surveys using the latest (2023) survey data and distance sampling. We fit detection functions to species-specific count data and stratified estimates across the Interior (since 1981) and Exterior (since 2000) survey areas, and between low (900–1,100 m), medium (1,100–1,300 m) and high (> 1,300 m) elevation bands (since 2000). Log-linear trends of ʻakekeʻe ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), ʻanianiau ( Magumma parva ), ʻiʻiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ), and Kauaʻi ʻamakihi ( Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri ) steeply declined across the timeseries, with extinction of ʻakekeʻe and ʻiʻiwi expected before 2050. Undetected in 2023, ʻakikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) were excluded from analysis. ʻApapane ( Himatione sanguinea ), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio ( Chasiempis sclateri ), Chinese hwamei ( Garrulax canorus ), and white-rumped shama ( Copsychus malabaricus ) were stable overall. Northern cardinal ( Cardinalis cardinalis ) steadily declined, whereas Japanese bush warbler ( Horornis diphone ) and warbling white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ) exponentially increased. Taxonomic and functional diversity did not vary greatly across our timeseries, while the proportion of introduced species in the Exterior increased from 34 to 59%. However, introduced species do not replace the losses of ecological functions from native species, whose populations are likely declining from avian malaria. Future monitoring can be used to evaluate forest bird population responses to mosquito suppression using the Incompatible Insect Technique.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Slipstream: an early Holocene slump and turbidite record from the frontal ridge of the Cascadia accretionary wedge off western Canada and paleoseismic implications

Slipstream Slump, a well-preserved 3 km wide sedimentary failure from the frontal ridge of the Cascadia accretionary wedge 85 km off Vancouver Island, Canada, was sampled during Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) John P. Tully cruise 2008007PGC along a transect of five piston cores. Shipboard sediment analysis and physical property logging revealed 12 turbidites interbedded with thick hemipelagic sediments overlying the slumped glacial diamict. Despite the different sedimentary setting, atop the abyssal plain fan, this record is similar in number and age to the sequence of turbidites sampled farther to the south from channel systems along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, with no extra turbidites present in this local record. Given the regional physiographic and tectonic setting, megathrust earthquake shaking is the most likely trigger for both the initial slumping and subsequent turbidity currents, with sediments sourced exclusively from the exposed slump face of the frontal ridge. Planktonic foraminifera picked from the resedimented diamict of the underlying main slump have a disordered cluster of 14 C ages between 12.8 and 14.5 ka BP. For the post-slump stratigraphy, an event-free depth scale is defined by removing the turbidite sediment intervals and using the hemipelagic sediments. Nine 14 C dates from the most foraminifera-rich intervals define a nearly constant hemipelagic sedimentation rate of 0.021 cm/year. The combined age model is defined using only planktonic foraminiferal dates and Bayesian analysis with a Poisson-process sedimentation model. The age model of ongoing hemipelagic sedimentation is strengthened by physical property correlations from Slipstream events to the turbidites for the Barkley Canyon site 40 km south. Additional modelling addressed the possibilities of seabed erosion or loss and basal erosion beneath turbidites. Neither of these approaches achieves a modern seabed age when applying the commonly used regional marine 14 C reservoir age of 800 years (marine reservoir correction Δ R = 400 years). Rather, the top of the core appears to be 400 years in the future. A younger marine reservoir age of 400 years (Δ R = 0 years) brings the top to the present and produces better correlations with the nearby Effingham Inlet paleo-earthquake chronology based only on terrestrial carbon requiring no reservoir correction. The high-resolution dating and facies analysis of Slipstream Slump in this isolated slope basin setting demonstrates that this is also a useful type of sedimentary target for sampling the paleoseismic record in addition to the more studied turbidites from submarine canyon and channel systems. The first 10 turbidites at Slipstream Slump were deposited between 10.8 and 6.6 ka BP, after which the system became sediment starved and only two more turbidites were deposited. The recurrence interval for the inferred frequent early Holocene megathrust earthquakes is 460 ± 140 years, compatible with other estimates of paleoseismic megathrust earthquake occurrence rates along the subduction zone.

Slipstream Slump↗

USGS2022

Mapping a magnetic superstorm: March 1989 geoelectric hazards and impacts on United States power systems

A study is made of the relationships between geomagnetic and geoelectric field variation, Earth-surface impedance, and operational interference (anomalies) experienced on electric-power systems across the contiguous United States during the March 13-14, 1989 magnetic storm. For this, a 1-minute-resolution sequence of geomagnetic field maps is constructed from magnetometer time series acquired at ground-based observatories. Induced geoelectric field maps are calculated by convolving the geomagnetic maps with magnetotelluric impedance tensors. During the storm, anomalies were concentrated where the lithosphere is electrically resistive, and when and where geoelectric field amplitudes were high. This was particularly true in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and the upper Midwest. Few anomalies were experienced in other parts of the Midwest and across much of the West, where the lithosphere is more conductive, and when and where geoelectric field amplitudes were low. Peak 1-minute-resolution geoelectric field amplitude ranged from 21.66 V/km in Maine and 19.02 V/km in Virginia to < 0.02 V/km in Idaho. Latitude-dependent organization of geoelectric hazards by auroral-zone electrojet currents is detectable, but it is much weaker than geographic organization due to surface impedance. Hazardous geoelectric fields were induced during different storm phases, at different local times, and, by inference, by a variety of ionospheric currents. Compared to geoelectric field amplitudes realized across the United States during March 1989, hazard maps used by utility companies to estimate systems exposure have much less geographic detail and a much smaller maximum-to-minimum range in geoelectric field amplitude. Future research will benet from denser geomagnetic monitoring, additional magnetotelluric surveying, and access to power-system impact data.

Space Weather↗

USGS2008

Wind, waves, and wing loading: Morphological specialization may limit range expansion of endangered albatrosses

Among the varied adaptations for avian flight, the morphological traits allowing large-bodied albatrosses to capitalize on wind and wave energy for efficient long-distance flight are unparalleled. Consequently, the biogeographic distribution of most albatrosses is limited to the windiest oceanic regions on earth; however, exceptions exist. Species breeding in the North and Central Pacific Ocean (Phoebastria spp.) inhabit regions of lower wind speed and wave height than southern hemisphere genera, and have large intrageneric variation in body size and aerodynamic performance. Here, we test the hypothesis that regional wind and wave regimes explain observed differences in Phoebastria albatross morphology and we compare their aerodynamic performance to representatives from the other three genera of this globally distributed avian family. In the North and Central Pacific, two species (short-tailed P. albatrus and waved P. irrorata) are markedly larger, yet have the smallest breeding ranges near highly productive coastal upwelling systems. Short-tailed albatrosses, however, have 60% higher wing loading (weight per area of lift) compared to waved albatrosses. Indeed, calculated aerodynamic performance of waved albatrosses, the only tropical albatross species, is more similar to those of their smaller congeners (black-footed P. nigripes and Laysan P. immutabilis), which have relatively low wing loading and much larger foraging ranges that include central oceanic gyres of relatively low productivity. Globally, the aerodynamic performance of short-tailed and waved albatrosses are most anomalous for their body sizes, yet consistent with wind regimes within their breeding season foraging ranges. Our results are the first to integrate global wind and wave patterns with albatross aerodynamics, thereby identifying morphological specialization that may explain limited breeding ranges of two endangered albatross species. These results are further relevant to understanding past and potentially predicting future distributional limits of albatrosses globally, particularly with respect to climate change effects on basin-scale and regional wind fields.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Identifying sources of aeolian mineral dust: Present and past

Aeolian mineral dust is an important component of the Earth’s environmental systems, playing roles in the planetary radiation balance, as a source of fertilizer for biota in both terrestrial and marine realms and as an archive for understanding atmospheric circulation and paleoclimate in the geologic past. Crucial to understanding all of these roles of dust is the identification of dust sources. Here we review the methods used to identify dust sources active at present and in the past. Contemporary dust sources, produced by both glaciogenic and non-glaciogenic processes, can be readily identified by the use of Earth-orbiting satellites. These data show that present dust sources are concentrated in a global dust belt that encompasses large topographic basins in low-latitude arid and semiarid regions. Geomorphic studies indicate that specific point sources for dust in this zone include dry or ephemeral lakes, intermittent stream courses, dune fields, and some bedrock surfaces. Back-trajectory analyses are also used to identify dust sources, through modeling of wind fields and the movement of air parcels over periods of several days. Identification of dust sources from the past requires novel approaches that are part of the geologic toolbox of provenance studies. Identification of most dust sources of the past requires the use of physical, mineralogical, geochemical, and isotopic analyses of dust deposits. Physical properties include systematic spatial changes in dust deposit thickness and particle size away from a source. Mineralogy and geochemistry can pinpoint dust sources by clay mineral ratios and Sc-Th-La abundances, respectively. The most commonly used isotopic methods utilize isotopes of Nd, Sr, and Pb and have been applied extensively in dust archives of deep-sea cores, ice cores, and loess. All these methods have shown that dust sources have changed over time, with far more abundant dust supplies existing during glacial periods. Greater dust supplies in glacial periods are likely due to greater production of glaciogenic dust particles from expanded ice sheets and mountain glaciers, but could also include dust inputs from exposed continental and insular shelves now submerged. Future dust sources are difficult to assess, but will likely differ from those of the present because of global warming. Global warming could bring about shifts in dust sources by changes in degree or type of vegetation cover, changes in wind strength, and increases or decreases in the size of water bodies. A major uncertainty in assessing dust sources of the future is related to changes inhuman land use, which could affect land surface cover, particularly due to increased agricultural endeavors and water usage.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

Proposed species extinction target fails to capture the diversity in biodiversity

We believe the 20 species extinction metric is a retrograde proposal, which does not adequately consider the lessons learnt from the 2020 Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Whilst having a single simple overarching target is appealing, we believe a positively-framed target will garner support, rather than one that aims to, at best, limit negative impacts. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s zero draft states that future targets should be clear, consistent and SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Timely). Extinction is problematic as a standalone target: it can take decades to demonstrate and therefore cannot be measured over a relevant time-period, and is biased towards terrestrial vertebrates. The proposal is not scalable across nations, nor is it equitable,one of the key aspirations of the zero draft. Many industrialised countries are unlikely to find the targets challenging because their most vulnerable species have largely gone extinct; tropical species-rich countries, where much biodiversity is yet to be catalogued, will find the targets demanding and unachievable in the short- or medium-term. Despite the authors’ statement to the contrary, species extinction is not necessarily relevant to other aspects of biodiversity, such as ecosystems or genetic diversity. A species may be reduced to a small fraction of its former extent without going extinct. However, its ecosystem will be altered, and its contribution to ecosystem functions and the socio-economic benefits it provided will be lost. The focus on extinction is not novel and has not been particularly successful to date, as demonstrated by the decline of emblematic species such as rhinoceroses. Alternatively, composite indicators can be used to capture biodiversity’s three fundamental components (ecosystems, species and genetic diversity). In conclusion, we cannot support a target that fails to represent the diversity in biodiversity and, in the authors’ words, could be met despite “wholesale and damaging changes to life on Earth.”

Science↗

USGS2025

The abiotic background as a central component of a Sample Safety Assessment Protocol for Mars Sample Return

Martian rock and regolith samples are being collected and cached by NASA’s Perseverance rover, with the goal of returning them to Earth as soon as the mid-2030s. Upon return, samples would be housed in a sample receiving facility under biological containment to prevent exposing Earth’s biosphere to any potential biohazards that might be present. Samples could be released from high containment for scientific investigations if they are found to be safe or are sterilized. The Sample Safety Assessment Protocol Tiger Team (SSAP-TT) was convened by the Sample Receiving Project between August 2023 and August 2024 and tasked with the development of a Sample Safety Assessment Protocol (SSAP). The result of this work is a proposed three-step protocol, supported by Bayesian statistical hypothesis testing, to assess the risk as to whether returned samples contain modern martian biology that could represent a biohazard. The proposed protocol outlines procedures to determine whether the samples could be safely released from high containment without sterilization or require a “hold and review” step. This article presents the central concept of the SSAP approach—comparing returned samples to the abiotic baseline. Organic molecules, which exist throughout the solar system, can have either biotic or abiotic origins. However, biotically produced organic molecules exhibit distinct complexity, distribution, and abundance characteristics that differentiate them from those formed through abiotic chemistry. The proposed protocol would examine the organic inventory of returned samples by using multiple techniques, including morphological and spectral assessments, to determine whether any signals exceed the abiotic baseline; that is, whether the organic molecular inventory could be explained solely by abiotic chemical synthesis. This approach provides a rigorous, yet feasible, safety assessment protocol by using modern techniques while minimizing sample consumption. We also identify key areas for future research and development, which include detection limits and further characterization of the martian abiotic background.

Astrobiology↗

USGS2010

River solute fluxes reflecting active hydrothermal chemical weathering of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field, USA

In the past few decades numerous studies have quantified the load of dissolved solids in large rivers to determine chemical weathering rates in orogenic belts and volcanic areas, mainly motivated by the notion that over timescales greater than ~100kyr, silicate hydrolysis may be the dominant sink for atmospheric CO2, thus creating a feedback between climate and weathering. Here, we report the results of a detailed study during water year 2007 (October 1, 2006 to September 30, 2007) in the major rivers of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field (YPVF) which hosts Earth's largest "restless" caldera and over 10,000 thermal features. The chemical compositions of rivers that drain thermal areas in the YPVF differ significantly from the compositions of rivers that drain non-thermal areas. There are large seasonal variations in river chemistry and solute flux, which increases with increasing water discharge. The river chemistry and discharge data collected periodically over an entire year allow us to constrain the annual solute fluxes and to distinguish between low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components. The TDS flux from Yellowstone Caldera in water year 2007 was 93t/km2/year. Extensive magma degassing and hydrothermal interaction with rocks accounts for at least 82% of this TDS flux, 83% of the cation flux and 72% of the HCO3- flux. The low-temperature chemical weathering rate (17t/km2/year), calculated on the assumption that all the Cl- is of thermal origin, could include a component from low-temperature hydrolysis reactions induced by CO2 ascending from depth rather than by atmospheric CO2. Although this uncertainty remains, the calculated low-temperature weathering rate of the young rhyolitic rocks in the Yellowstone Caldera is comparable to the world average of large watersheds that drain also more soluble carbonates and evaporates but is slightly lower than calculated rates in other, less-silicic volcanic regions. Long-term average fluxes at Yellowstone are likely ~20% higher than those in the abnormally dry water year 2007, but the protocol used in this study can be easily adaptable to track future changes in low-temperature weathering and hydrothermal flux components, which could provide better monitoring of magmatic unrest. ?? 2010.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2008

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2010

Extraction of in situ cosmogenic 14C from olivine

Chemical pretreatment and extraction techniques have been developed previously to extract in situ cosmogenic radiocarbon (in situ 14C) from quartz and carbonate. These minerals can be found in most environments on Earth, but are usually absent from mafic terrains. To fill this gap, we conducted numerous experiments aimed at extracting in situ 14C from olivine ((Fe,Mg)2SiO4). We were able to extract a stable and reproducible in situ 14C component from olivine using stepped heating and a lithium metaborate (LiBO2) flux, following treatment with dilute HNO3 over a variety of experimental conditions. However, measured concentrations for samples from the Tabernacle Hill basalt flow (17.3 ?? 0.3 ka4) in central Utah and the McCarty's basalt flow (3.0 ?? 0.2 ka) in western New Mexico were significantly lower than expected based on exposure of olivine in our samples to cosmic rays at each site. The source of the discrepancy is not clear. We speculate that in situ 14C atoms may not have been released from Mg-rich crystal lattices (the olivine composition at both sites was ~Fo65Fa35). Alternatively, a portion of the 14C atoms released from the olivine grains may have become trapped in synthetic spinel-like minerals that were created in the olivine-flux mixture during the extraction process, or were simply retained in the mixture itself. Regardless, the magnitude of the discrepancy appears to be inversely proportional to the Fe/(Fe+Mg) ratio of the olivine separates. If we apply a simple correction factor based on the chemical composition of the separates, then corrected in situ 14C concentrations are similar to theoretical values at both sites. At this time, we do not know if this agreement is fortuitous or real. Future research should include measurement of in situ 14C concentrations in olivine from known-age basalt flows with different chemical compositions (i.e. more Fe-rich) to determine if this correction is robust for all olivine-bearing rocks. ?? 2010 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Radiocarbon↗

USGS2015

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Alteration, slope-classified alteration, and potential lahar inundation maps of volcanoes for the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Volcano Archive

This study identifies areas prone to lahars from hydrothermally altered volcanic edifices on a global scale, using visible and near infrared (VNIR) and short wavelength infrared (SWIR) reflectance data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and digital elevation data from the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) dataset. This is the first study to create a global database of hydrothermally altered volcanoes showing quantitatively compiled alteration maps and potentially affected drainages, as well as drainage-specific maps illustrating modeled lahars and their potential inundation zones. We (1) identified and prioritized 720 volcanoes based on population density surrounding the volcanoes using the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program database (GVP) and LandScan™ digital population dataset; (2) validated ASTER hydrothermal alteration mapping techniques using Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and ASTER data for Mount Shasta, California, and Pico de Orizaba (Citlaltépetl), Mexico; (3) mapped and slope-classified hydrothermal alteration using ASTER VNIR-SWIR reflectance data on 100 of the most densely populated volcanoes; (4) delineated drainages using ASTER GDEM data that show potential flow paths of possible lahars for the 100 mapped volcanoes; (5) produced potential alteration-related lahar inundation maps using the LAHARZ GIS code for Iztaccíhuatl, Mexico, and Mount Hood and Mount Shasta in the United States that illustrate areas likely to be affected based on DEM-derived volume estimates of hydrothermally altered rocks and the ~2x uncertainty factor inherent within a statistically-based lahar model; and (6) saved all image and vector data for 3D and 2D display in Google Earth ™ , ArcGIS ® and other graphics display programs. In addition, these data are available from the ASTER Volcano Archive (AVA) for distribution (available at http://ava.jpl.nasa.gov/recent_alteration_zones.php ). Using the GVP and the LandScan™ digital population dataset, 350 of the most densely populated stratovolcanoes were assessed for study. Of the 350 volcanoes, 250 volcanoes were not mapped due to excessive snow, ice, and (or) vegetation. Results from mapping the remaining 100 stratovolcanoes show that 87 contain slopes with hydrothermal alteration, and 49 have hydrothermally altered rocks on steep slopes situated above areas with populations >100 people per km 2 . Of these, 17 stratovolcanoes exhibit laterally extensive hydrothermal alteration on slopes >35° and cover an area >0.25 km 2 , which may pose a significant possibility of generating debris flows. This study was undertaken during 2012–2013 in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since completion of this study, a new lahar modeling program (LAHAR_pz) has been released, which may produce slightly different modeling results from the LAHARZ model used in this study. The maps and data from this study should not be used in place of existing volcano hazard maps published by local authorities. For volcanoes without hazard maps and (or) published lahar-related hazard studies, this work will provide a starting point from which more accurate hazard maps can be produced. This is the first dataset to provide digital maps of altered volcanoes and adjacent watersheds that can be used for assessing volcanic hazards, hydrothermal alteration, and other volcanic processes in future studies.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Landsat TM and ETM+ thermal band calibration

Landsat-5 has been imaging the Earth since March 1984, and Landsat-7 was added to the series of Landsat instruments in April 1999. The Landsat Project Science Office and the Landsat-7 Image Assessment System have been monitoring the on-board calibration of Landsat-7 since launch. Additionally, two separate university teams have been evaluating the on-board thermal calibration of Landsat-7 through ground-based measurements since launch. Although not monitored as closely over its lifetime, a new effort is currently being made to validate the calibration of Landsat-5. Two university teams are beginning to collect ground truth under Landsat-5, along with using other vicarious calibration methods to go back into the archive to validate the history of the calibration of Landsat-5. This paper considers the calibration efforts for the thermal band, band 6, of both the Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 instruments. Though stable since launch, Landsat-7 had an initial calibration error of about 3 K, and changes were made to correct for this beginning 1 October 2000 for data processed with the National Landsat Archive Production System (NLAPS) and beginning 20 December 2000 for data processed with the Landsat Product Generation System (LPGS). Recent results from Landsat-5 vicarious calibration efforts show an offset of 0.7 K over the lifetime of the instrument. This suggests that historical calibration efforts may have been detecting errors in processing systems rather than changes in the instrument. A correction to the Landsat-5 processing has not yet been implemented but will be in the near future.

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing↗