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USGS2023

A spatially explicit modeling framework to guide management of subsidized avian predator densities

Anthropogenic resource subsidization across western ecosystems has contributed to widespread increases in generalist avian predators, including common ravens ( Corvus corax ; hereafter, raven). Ravens are adept nest predators and can negatively impact species of conservation concern. Predation effects from ravens are especially concerning for greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), which have experienced prolonged population decline. Our objectives were to quantify spatiotemporal patterns in raven density, evaluate sage-grouse nest success concurrent with fluctuating raven densities, and demonstrate a spatially explicit decision support tool to guide management applications to appropriate conflict areas. We combined ~28,000 raven point count surveys with data from more than 900 sage-grouse nests between 2009 and 2019 within the Great Basin, USA. We modeled variation in raven density using a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling approach with environmental covariates on detection and abundance. Concurrently, we modeled sage-grouse nest survival using a hierarchical frailty model as a function of raven density and other environmental covariates that influence the risk of nest failure. Raven density commonly exceeded 0.5 ravens km −2 and increased at low elevations with more anthropogenic development and/or agriculture. Reduced sage-grouse nest survival was strongly associated with elevated raven density (e.g., >0.5 ravens km −2 ) and varied with topographic ruggedness, shrub cover, and burned areas. For conservation application, we developed a spatially explicit planning tool that predicts nest survival under current and reduced raven numbers within the Great Basin to help direct management actions to localized areas where sage-grouse nests are at highest risk of failure. Our modeling framework can be generalized to multiple species where spatially registered abundance and demographic data are available.

Nevada↗

USGS2007

Ecological Investigations of the Federally Endangered Shivwits Milk-Vetch (Astragalus ampullarioides)--2006 Annual Report

Astragalus ampullarioides (Welsh) Welsh, the Shivwits milk-vetch, is an herbaceous perennial legume that was listed as federally endangered in September 2001. Known populations of this edaphic endemic species are restricted to Washington County, Utah, with the majority of occurrences found on gently sloping outcrops of the Triassic Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation at the edge of the Mojave Desert. At the time of listing in 2001, surveys estimated a total of 1000 individuals for the species. In April-May 2006, surveys estimated approximately 4205 individuals distributed among six populations. Of the total number of individuals estimated in spring 2006, over 75 percent were distributed among three subpopulations in Zion National Park and approximately 60 percent occurred at a single 0.3-ha site in the Park. In addition to small population sizes and limited geographic distributions, the species is threatened to varying degrees by urbanization, livestock grazing, off-road vehicle use, and invasive exotic plants. In April 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated ecological investigations of the Shivwits milk-vetch to support conservation management and recovery of the species by the National Park Service (NPS; Zion National Park), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Shivwits Band of the Paiute Tribe, and other cooperators such as The Nature Conservancy of Utah (TNC). To date, funding for this research has been provided by the Southwest Biological Science Center of the USGS Biological Resources Discipline, the USGS-NPS Park-Oriented Biological Support Project, and the Earth Surface Dynamics Program of the USGS Geologic Discipline. Additional logistical support has been provided by the Bureau of Land Management, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. General objectives of this research are (1) to develop a better understanding of species-environment relations to support habitat modelling, future surveys for additional recovery populations, and potential efforts to establish new recovery populations; and (2) to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on habitat conditions and measures of milk-vetch performance. Specific objectives are to: Describe the distribution and abundance of milk-vetch populations and associated invasive exotic plant species within and outside of Zion National Park (Zion NP) in relation to geologic / geomorphic setting, soil properties, and plant community composition. In a field setting in Zion NP, conduct experiments to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on reproductive output and seedling establishment of A. ampullarioides across a gradient of exotic species biomass. Conduct greenhouse studies and analyze soils to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on soil biological properties (including mycorrhizal inocculation potential) that affect cycling and plant uptake of essential mineral nutrients. Based on environmental characteristics of known population locations, use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to prepare a predictive habitat model that can be used to guide future surveys and efforts to evaluate sites for reintroduction efforts. This report describes 2006 progress and future plans for achieving these four objectives.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Avian foods, foraging and habitat conservation in world rice fields

Worldwide, rice (Oryza sativa) agriculture typically involves seasonal flooding and soil tillage, which provides a variety of microhabitats and potential food for birds. Water management in rice fields creates conditions ranging from saturated mud flats to shallow (<30 cm) water, thereby attracting different guilds of birds. Grain not collected during harvest (i.e. waste rice) is typically the most abundant potential food of birds in rice fields, with estimates of seed mass from North America ranging from 66672 kg/ha. Although initially abundant after harvest, waste rice availability can be temporally limited. Few abundance estimates for other foods, such as vertebrate prey or forage vegetation, exist for rice fields. Outside North America, Europe and Japan, little is known about abundance and importance of any avian food in rice fields. Currently, flooding rice fields after harvest is the best known management practice to attract and benefit birds. Studies from North America indicate specific agricultural practices (e.g. burning stubble) may increase use and improve access to food resources. Evaluating and implementing management practices that are ecologically sustainable, increase food for birds and are agronomically beneficial should be global priorities to integrate rice production and avian conservation. Finally, land area devoted to rice agriculture appears to be stable in the USA, declining in China, and largely unquantified in many regions. Monitoring trends in riceland area may provide information to guide avian conservation planning in rice-agriculture ecosystems.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey science strategy to address highly pathogenic avian influenza and its effects on wildlife health 2025–29

Executive Summary Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an ecologically and economically important animal disease that can also directly affect humans (a “zoonotic” disease). HPAI was once limited almost exclusively to domestic poultry but has rapidly adapted to diverse animal hosts. Viruses causing HPAI now appear to be maintained and dispersed by wild birds largely independent of poultry, though HPAI continues to cause considerable economic losses and supply chain disruptions in the domestic poultry trade. Coincident with the adaptation of HPAI viruses to wild birds, particularly waterfowl and gulls, increasingly diverse wild bird hosts are becoming exposed to HPAI, often resulting in disease and death. More sporadically, HPAI has caused mass mortality events, particularly among seabirds. Furthermore, viral spillover to wild and domestic mammals has become more common. Spillover to wild mammals has resulted in mortality among diverse terrestrial and marine taxa, including episodic losses of such scale as to represent potential conservation challenges. Since approximately March 2024, HPAI has also affected dairy cows, which represents a new threat to the agricultural economy. Lastly, HPAI has increasingly affected humans through domestic animal exposures, exemplifying the considerable implications of this disease beyond animal health. Rapid changes in the ecology of HPAI are currently outpacing research efforts. For example, it is not entirely clear which newly established hosts may become reservoirs for HPAI viruses (in other words, capable of maintaining HPAI viruses within a broad population indefinitely) and how this may influence viral evolution and dissemination. As a result, there are considerable information gaps regarding HPAI in wildlife that, if filled, would improve the ability of scientists, managers, agricultural industry representatives, and healthcare professionals to understand and to anticipate the effects of HPAI on wild animal, domestic animal, environmental, and human health (“One Health”). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the lead Federal agency providing scientific research on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including HPAI viruses, that affect wildlife for which the Department of the Interior (DOI) has management authority. States have jurisdiction over wildlife on Federal lands within their borders (43 CFR § 24.3), so the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area (EMA) coordinates with State natural resource management agencies. The EMA focuses its research on HPAI through priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team ( app. 1 ). Priorities identified by the USGS Avian Influenza Science Team are based on Administration priorities, Congressional direction, and discussions with State, Federal, and Tribal natural resource management agencies that identify specific scientific gaps that need to be filled to inform sound wildlife management decisions. Notable non-DOI Federal partners include the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lead for the HPAI regulatory response in poultry and livestock, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the lead agency for the HPAI response pertaining to human health. The USGS offers unique expertise and capacity pertaining to research on diseases affecting free-ranging wildlife populations. This expertise has been critical to interjurisdictional surveillance and capacity-building efforts, including programs administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the CDC. The USGS also provides resources, guidance, and tools to inform surveillance and interventions conducted by natural resource management agencies. More specifically, the USGS EMA provides objective and rigorous scientific data for inferring (1) the utility of new methods to detect and characterize AIVs, including those maintained in wildlife and the environment; (2) effects of HPAI on wildlife; (3) spatiotemporal patterns of wildlife host and AIV dispersal; (4) the presence and persistence of AIVs in the environment; (5) how HPAI in wildlife influences consumptive and nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife; (6) how new tools and scientific methods may promote sound management decisions for HPAI-affected wildlife, particularly species of conservation concern; and (7) the combined effects of HPAI and other stressors on ecosystem health and resiliency. This science strategy builds upon research outlined in a previous USGS science strategy for HPAI (2016–20) by Harris and others (2016) . This strategy also details research priorities identified by the Administration (for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2025 ) and others based on USGS Avian Influenza Science Team discussions with natural resource management agencies to address HPAI and wildlife health over the next 5 years (2025–29). This strategy presents 7 goals and 26 objectives that focus USGS and partner efforts on priorities that will fill data gaps regarding the effects of HPAI on wildlife managed by or co-managed with the U.S. Department of the Interior such that agencies and partners might anticipate or limit adverse effects on public resources. This strategy also identifies research priorities intended to address HPAI in wildlife and wildlife habitat that are anticipated to support interjurisdictional One Health efforts.

Circular↗

USGS2019

Conserving transboundary wildlife migrations: Recent insights from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Animal migrations are ecologically, culturally, and economically important. Ungulate populations in many parts of Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas migrate long distances to access seasonally available resources, traversing vast landscapes in large numbers. Yet some migrations are declining, raising concerns among scientists and natural resource managers. We synthesize recent advances in ungulate migration ecology with relevance to management and policy. Using case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), we show how new tools can be applied to map ungulate migrations and assess threats across multiple seasonal habitats, serving as a conservation roadmap. To help conserve ungulate migrations, we also propose a transboundary science, policy, and management framework that could be adapted beyond the GYE and that encompasses the needs of multiple species. The key elements of this framework consist of more widespread mapping and assessment of migrations, improved federal and state coordination across jurisdictional lines, increased investment in private land conservation, and strong engagement of local stakeholders positioned to sustain conservation activities over the long term.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Satellite time series analysis to quantify changing climax ciénegas using a state and transition model approach

Ciénegas are rare wetlands in arid landscapes of the North American Southwest, historically providing critical ecological and hydrological functions but increasingly threatened by changing climate and land use pressures. This study quantifies changes in ciénega condition and floodplain dynamics using a state-and-transition model (STM) informed by expert knowledge and remote sensing. Key factors include woody plant encroachment, water availability, and soil aggradation. We mapped 31 ciénegas with high-resolution imagery and analyzed Landsat data (1985–2023) to assess vegetation health and moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). Results show substantial interannual variability in phenology, water stress, and soil moisture, with regional drying and elevation strongly influencing ciénega resilience. We classified ciénegas into three functional states—healthy, desiccated, and dormant—and mapped their 2023 condition. Trend analyses indicate most ciénegas exhibit greening despite drought, though localized variability underscores the need for site-specific management. None are in a stable climax (reference) state; rather, they transition among states in response to external drivers. Increasing woody plant cover and surface drying, likely linked to declining regional water tables, favor deep-rooted species over wetland grasses—a pattern mirrored in adjacent control plots. Spatially explicit analysis revealed intra-ciénega variability often masked by aggregated data, highlighting the importance of high-resolution monitoring. Seasonal and long-term trends provide context for understanding ciénega dynamics, including degradation and restoration pathways. This study emphasizes the importance of groundwater conservation and demonstrates how remote sensing supports long-term monitoring. The STM framework offers a practical tool for adaptive management to sustain freshwater resources in arid environments.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2014

Measuring and predicting abundance and dynamics of habitat for piping plovers on a large reservoir

Measuring habitat and understanding habitat dynamics have become increasingly important for wildlife conservation. Using remotely-sensed data, we developed procedures to measure breeding habitat abundance for the federally listed piping plover (Charadrius melodus) at Lake Sakakawea, North Dakota, USA. We also developed a model to predict habitat abundance based on past and projected water levels, vegetation colonization rates, and topography. Previous studies define plover habitat as flat areas (<10% slope) with ≤30% obstruction of bare substrate. Compared to ground-based data, remotely-sensed habitat classifications (≤30/>30% bare-substrate obstruction) were 76% correct and omission and commission errors were equal. Due to water level fluctuations, habitat abundance varied markedly among years (1986–2009) ranging from 9 to 5195 ha. The proportion bare substrate declined with the number of years since a contour was inundated until 5 years (β = -0.65, SE = 0.05), then it stabilized near zero, and the decline varied by shoreline segment (5, 50, and 95 percentile were β = -0.19, SE = 0.05, β = -0.63, SE = 0.05, and β = -0.91, SE = 0.05, respectively). Years since inundated predicted habitat abundance well at shoreline segments (R 2 = 0.77), but it predicted better for the whole lake (R 2 = 0.86). The vastness and dynamics of plover habitat on Lake Sakakawea suggest that this is a key area for conservation of this species. Model-based habitat predictions can benefit resource conservation because they can (1) form the basis for a sampling stratification, (2) help allocate monitoring efforts among areas, and (3) help inform management through simulations or what-if scenarios.

North Dakota↗

USGS2017

Using regional scale flow–ecology modeling to identify catchments where fish assemblages are most vulnerable to changes in water availability

Streamflow is essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Changes in climate, land use and water use practices may alter water availability. Understanding the potential effect of these changes on aquatic ecosystems is critical for long-term water management to maintain a balance between water for human consumption and ecosystem needs. Fish species data and streamflow estimates from a rainfall-runoff and flow routing model were used to develop boosted regression tree models to predict the relationship between streamflow and fish species richness (FSR) under plausible scenarios of (1) water withdrawal, (2) climate change and (3) increases in impervious surfaces in the Piedmont ecoregion of North Carolina, U.S.A. Maximum monthly flow, the fraction of total flow originating from impervious surface runoff, coefficient of monthly streamflow variability, and the specific river basin accounted for 50% of the variability in FSR. This model was used to predict FSR values for all twelve-digit Hydrological Unit Code catchments (HUC-12s) in the North Carolina Piedmont under current flow conditions and under water withdrawal, climate change and impervious surface scenarios. Flow–ecology modeling results indicate that predicted FSR declined significantly with increased water withdrawals. However, the magnitude of decline varied geographically. A “hot-spot” analysis was conducted based on predicted changes in FSR under each scenario to understand which HUC-12s were most likely to be affected by changes in water withdrawals, climate and impervious surfaces. Under the 20% withdrawal increase scenario, 413 of 886 (47%) HUC-12s in the study area were predicted to lose one or more species. HUC-12s in the Broad, Catawba, Yadkin and Cape Fear river basins were most susceptible to species loss. These findings may help decision making efforts by identifying catchments most vulnerable to changing water availability. Additionally, FSR-discharge modeling results can assist resource agencies, water managers and stakeholders in assessing the effect of water withdrawals in catchments to better support the protection and long-term conservation of species.

North Carolina↗

USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2017 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal year 2017 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS2020

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2018 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal year 2018 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2019–20 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal years 2019–20 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

North Dakota↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2021–23 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal years 2021–23 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

USGS2015

U.S. conterminous wall-to-wall anthropogenic land use trends (NWALT), 1974–2012

This dataset provides a U.S. national 60-meter, 19-class mapping of anthropogenic land uses for five time periods: 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012. The 2012 dataset is based on a slightly modified version of the National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) that was recoded to a schema of land uses, and mapped back in time to develop datasets for the four earlier eras. The time periods coincide with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture data collection years. Changes are derived from (a) known changes in water bodies from reservoir construction or removal; (b) housing unit density changes; (c) regional mining/extraction trends; (d) for 1999–2012, timber and forestry activity based on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (Landfire) data; (e) county-level USDA Census of Agriculture change in cultivated land; and (f) establishment dates of major conservation areas. The data are compared to several other published studies and datasets as validation. Caveats are provided about limitations of the data for some classes. The work was completed as part of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and termed the NAWQA Wall-to-Wall Anthropogenic Land Use Trends (NWALT) dataset. The associated datasets include five 60-meter geospatial rasters showing anthropogenic land use for the years 1974, 1982, 1992, 2002, and 2012, and 14 rasters showing the annual extent of timber clearcutting and harvest from 1999 to 2012.

Data Series↗

USGS2013

Estimates of future inundation of salt marshes in response to sea-level rise in and around Acadia National Park, Maine

Salt marshes are ecosystems that provide many important ecological functions in the Gulf of Maine. The U.S. Geological Survey investigated salt marshes in and around Acadia National Park from Penobscot Bay to the Schoodic Peninsula to map the potential for landward migration of marshes using a static inundation model of a sea-level rise scenario of 60 centimeters (cm; 2 feet). The resulting inundation contours can be used by resource managers to proactively adapt to sea-level rise by identifying and targeting low-lying coastal areas adjacent to salt marshes for conservation or further investigation, and to identify risks to infrastructure in the coastal zone. For this study, the mapping of static inundation was based on digital elevation models derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topographic data collected in October 2010. Land-surveyed control points were used to evaluate the accuracy of the LiDAR data in the study area, yielding a root mean square error of 11.3 cm. An independent accuracy assessment of the LiDAR data specific to salt-marsh land surfaces indicated a root mean square error of 13.3 cm and 95-percent confidence interval of ± 26.0 cm. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and digital color aerial photography, taken during low tide conditions in 2008, with a pixel resolution of 0.5 meters, were used to identify the highest elevation of the land surface at each salt marsh in the study area. Inundation contours for 60-cm of sea-level rise were delineated above the highest marsh elevation for each marsh. Confidence interval contours (95-percent,± 26.0 cm) were delineated above and below the 60-cm inundation contours, and artificial structures, such as roads and bridges, that may present barriers to salt-marsh migration were mapped. This study delineated 114 salt marshes totaling 340 hectares (ha), ranging in size from 0.11 ha (marshes less than 0.2 ha were mapped only if they were on Acadia National Park property) to 52 ha, with a median size of 1.0 ha. Inundation contours were mapped at 110 salt marshes. Approximately 350 ha of low-lying upland areas adjacent to these marshes will be inundated with 60 cm of sea-level rise. Many of these areas are currently freshwater wetlands. There are potential barriers to marsh migration at 27 of the 114 marshes. Although only 23 percent of the salt marshes in the study are on ANP property, about half of the upland areas that will be inundated are within ANP; most of the predicted inundated uplands (approximately 170 ha) include freshwater wetlands in the Northeast Creek and Bass Harbor Marsh areas. Most of the salt marshes analyzed do not have a significant amount of upland area available for migration. Seventy-five percent of the salt marshes have 20 meters or less of adjacent upland that would be inundated along most of their edges. All inundation contours, salt marsh locations, potential barriers, and survey data are stored in geospatial files for use in a geographic information system and are a part of this report.

Maine↗

USGS2017

Annual changes in seasonal river water temperatures in the eastern and western United States

Changes in river water temperatures are anticipated to have direct effects on thermal habitat and fish population vital rates, and therefore, understanding temporal trends in water temperatures may be necessary for predicting changes in thermal habitat and how species might respond to such changes. However, many investigations into trends in water temperatures use regression methods that assume long-term monotonic changes in temperature, when in fact changes are likely to be nonmonotonic. Therefore, our objective was to highlight the need and provide an example of an analytical method to better quantify the short-term, nonmonotonic temporal changes in thermal habitat that are likely necessary to determine the effects of changing thermal conditions on fish populations and communities. To achieve this objective, this study uses Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) to examine seasonal trends in river water temperatures from sites located in the eastern and western United States, regions that have dramatically different riverine habitats and fish communities. We estimated the annual rate of change in water temperature and found little evidence of seasonal changes in water temperatures in the eastern U.S. We found more evidence of warming for river sites located in the western U.S., particularly during the fall and winter seasons. Use of DLMs provided a more detailed view of temporal dynamics in river thermal habitat compared to more traditional methods by quantifying year-to-year changes and associated uncertainty, providing managers with the information needed to adapt decision making to short-term changes in habitat conditions that may be necessary for conserving aquatic resources in the face of a changing climate.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2018

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2016 annual report

This is the ninth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In fiscal year (FY) 2016, there were 26 active USGS WLCI science-based projects. Of these 26 projects, one project was new for FY2016, and three were completed by the end of the fiscal year (though final products were still in preparation or review). USGS WLCI projects were grouped under five categories: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Long-Term Monitoring, (3) Effectiveness Monitoring, (4) Mechanistic Studies of Wildlife, and (5) Data and Information Management. Each of these topic areas is designed to address WLCI management needs: identifying key drivers of change, identifying the condition and distribution of key wildlife species and habitats and of species’ habitat requirements, development of an integrated inventory and monitoring strategy, use of emerging technologies and development and testing of innovative methods for maximizing the efficiency and efficacy of monitoring efforts, evaluating the effectiveness of habitat treatment projects, evaluating the responses of wildlife to development, and developing a data clearinghouse and information management framework to support and provide access to results of most USGS WLCI projects. In FY2016, we assisted with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan and associated databases as part of the Comprehensive Assessment, and we also assisted with the Bureau of Land Management 2015 WLCI annual report. By the end of FY2016, we completed or had nearly completed assessments of WLCI energy and mineral resources and had submitted a manuscript on modeled effects of oil and gas development on wildlife to a peer-reviewed journal. We also initiated a study on the effects of wind energy on wildlife in the WLCI region. A USGS circular on WLCI long-term monitoring was in review at the end of the fiscal year, and seven projects monitoring water and vegetation (including changes in sagebrush cover and patterns of sagebrush mortality) continued through the year. USGS scientists continued many projects in FY2016 that evaluate the effectiveness of habitat conservation actions (including sagebrush, cheatgrass, and aspen habitat treatments) and provide tools in support of mechanistic studies of wildlife. In FY2016, USGS scientists, along with university and State partners, continued work on five focal wildlife species/communities (pygmy rabbits [ Brachylagus idahoensis ], greater sage grouse , mule deer, sagebrush songbirds, and native fish). In FY2016, the USGS Information Management Team presented information to WLCI scientists on how USGS tools and resources can be used to fulfill the requirements of new USGS policies regarding data release, data management, and data visualization.

Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Conservation of greater sage-grouse- a synthesis of current trends and future management

Recent analyses of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations indicate substantial declines in many areas but relatively stable populations in other portions of the species? range. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitats neces-sary to support sage-grouse are being burned by large wildfires, invaded by nonnative plants, and developed for energy resources (gas, oil, and wind). Management on public lands, which con-tain 70% of sagebrush habitats, has changed over the last 30 years from large sagebrush control projects directed at enhancing livestock grazing to a greater emphasis on projects that often attempt to improve or restore ecological integrity. Never-theless, the mandate to manage public lands to provide traditional consumptive uses as well as recreation and wilderness values is not likely to change in the near future. Consequently, demand and use of resources contained in sagebrush land-scapes plus the associated infrastructure to sup-port increasing human populations in the western United States will continue to challenge efforts to conserve Greater Sage-Grouse. The continued widespread distribution of sage-grouse, albeit at very low densities in some areas, coupled with large areas of important sagebrush habitat that are relatively unaffected by the human footprint, sug-gest that Greater Sage-Grouse populations may be able to persist into the future. We summarize the status of sage-grouse populations and habitats, provide a synthesis of major threats and chal-lenges to conservation of sage-grouse, and suggest a roadmap to attaining conservation goals.

Book chapter↗