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Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

Land↗

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

RINHewS: Newsletter of the Rhode Island Natural Hi↗

Fire effects on aquatic ecosystems: An assessment of the current state of the science

Fire is a prevalent feature of many landscapes and has numerous and complex effects on geological, hydrological, ecological, and economic systems. In some regions, the frequency and intensity of wildfire have increased in recent years and are projected to escalate with predicted climatic and landuse changes. In addition, prescribed burns continue to be used in many parts of the world to clear vegetation for development projects, encourage desired vegetation, and reduce fuel loads. Given the prevalence of fire on the landscape, authors of papers in this special series examine the complexities of fire as a disturbance shaping freshwater ecosystems and highlight the state of the science. These papers cover key aspects of fire effects that range from vegetation loss and recovery in watersheds to effects on hydrology and water quality with consequences for communities (from algae to fish), food webs, and ecosystem processes (e.g., organic matter subsidies, nutrient cycling) across a range of scales. The results presented in this special series of articles expand our knowledge of fire effects in different biomes, water bodies, and geographic regions, encompassing aquatic population, community, and ecosystem responses. In this overview, we summarize each paper and emphasize its contributions to knowledge on fire ecology and freshwater ecosystems. This overview concludes with a list of 7 research foci that are needed to further our knowledge of fire effects on aquatic ecosystems, including research on: 1) additional biomes and geographic regions; 2) additional habitats, including wetlands and lacustrine ecosystems; 3) different fire severities, sizes, and spatial configurations; and 4) additional response variables (e.g., ecosystem processes) 5) over long (>5 y) time scales 6) with more rigorous study designs and data analyses, and 7) consideration of the effects of fire management practices and policies on aquatic ecosystems.

Freshwater Science↗

The future of nearshore processes research

The nearshore is the transition region between land and the continental shelf including (from onshore to offshore) coastal plains, wetlands, estuaries, coastal cliffs, dunes, beaches, surf zones (regions of wave breaking), and the inner shelf (Figure ES-1). Nearshore regions are vital to the national economy, security, commerce, and recreation. The nearshore is dynamically evolving, is often densely populated, and is under increasing threat from sea level rise, long-term erosion, extreme storms, and anthropogenic influences. Worldwide, almost one billion people live at elevations within 10 m of present sea level. Long-term erosion threatens communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and habitat. Extreme storms can cause billions of dollars of damage. Degraded water quality impacts ecosystem and human health. Nearshore processes, the complex interactions between water, sediment, biota, and humans, must be understood and predicted to manage this often highly developed yet vulnerable nearshore environment. Over the past three decades, the understanding of nearshore processes has improved. However, societal needs are growing with increased coastal urbanization and threats of future climate change, and significant scientific challenges remain. To address these challenges, members of academia, industry, and federal agencies (USGS, USACE, NPS, NOAA, FEMA, ONR) met at the “The Past and Future of Nearshore Processes Research: Reflections on the Sallenger Years and a New Vision for the Future” workshop to develop a nearshore processes research vision where societal needs and science challenges intersect. The resulting vision is comprised of three broad research themes: Long-term coastal evolution due to natural and anthropogenic processes: As global climate change alters the rates of sea level rise and potentially storm patterns and coastal urbanization increases over the coming decades, an understanding of coastal evolution is critical. Improved knowledge of long-term morphological, ecological, and societal processes and their interactions will result in an improved ability to simulate coastal change. This will enable proactive solutions for resilient coasts and better guidance for reducing coastal vulnerability. Extreme Events: Flooding, erosion, and the subsequent recovery: Hurricane Sandy caused flooding and erosion along hundreds of miles of shoreline, flooded New York City, and impacted communities and infrastructure. Overall U.S. coastal extreme event related economic losses have increased substantially. Furthermore, climate change may cause an increase in coastal extreme events and rising sea levels could increase the occurrence of extreme events. Addressing this research theme will result in an improved understanding of the physical processes during extreme events, leading to improved models of flooding, erosion, and recovery. The resulting societal benefit will be more resilient coastal communities. The physical, biological and chemical processes impacting human and ecosystem health: Nearshore regions are used for recreation, tourism, and human habitation, and provide habitat and valuable ecosystem services. These areas must be sustained for future generations, however overall coastal water quality is declining due to microbial pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metal contamination, threatening ecosystem and human health. To ensure sustainable nearshore regions, predictive real-time water- and sediment-based based pollutant modeling capabilities must be developed, which requires expanding our knowledge of the physics, chemistry, and biology of the nearshore. The resulting societal benefits will include better beach safety, healthier ecosystems, and improved mitigation and regulatory policies. The scientists and engineers of the U.S. nearshore community are poised to make significant progress on these research themes, which have significant societal impact. The U.S. nearshore community, including academic, government, and industry colleagues, recommends multi-agency investment into a coordinated development of observational and modeling research infrastructure to address these themes, as discussed in the whitepaper. The observational infrastructure should include development of new sensors and methods, focused observational programs, and expanded nearshore observing systems. The modeling infrastructure should include improved process representation, better model coupling, incorporation of data assimilation techniques, and testing of real-time models. The observations will provide test beds to compare and improve models.

Report↗

Octocoral diseases in a changing ocean

Octocorals (Cnidaria, Octocorallia) constitute a geographically widely distributed and common group of marine invertebrates commonly referred to as “soft-corals,” “sea fans,” “horny corals,” “sea feathers,” and “sea plumes.” They are found from shallow coastal habitats to mesophotic and abyssal depths. Octocorals are important members of most Atlantic-Caribbean, Indo-Pacific, and Mediterranean coastal and mesophotic reef communities; however, information about their susceptibility to diseases, predation, and competition, and their relationship with changing environmental conditions is limited. At least 19 diseases have been observed in at least 42 common octocoral species throughout their range. Twelve of these have been reported in the wider Caribbean (CA), one in Brazil (BR), two in the Mediterranean (ME), one in the Eastern Pacific (EP), and three in the western Pacific (WP). Pathogenic and/or environmental causes have been identified for eight diseases, including viruses, terrestrial fungi, protozoans, bacteria and cyanobacteria, filamentous algae, parasitic copepods, and high temperature. Only a few of the suspected pathogens have been tested with Koch’s postulates. At least eight disease outbreaks have led to extensive octocoral mortalities in the CA, ME, BR, and EP with detrimental ecological consequences. The fungal disease Aspergillosis has produced the highest mortalities in the CA and the EP. Other fungi, protozoans, and the bacterium Vibrio coralliilyticus were identified as potential causes of the death of millions of colonies in two Mediterranean disease outbreaks. Bacterial and fungal agents seemed to be responsible for the mass mortalities in Brazil and the WP. Most outbreaks in all regions were linked to high thermal anomalies associated with climate change, which seems to be the major driver. Other biological stressors such as predation and/or competition produce injuries that may contribute to the spread of infections and mortality. Overfishing of common predators could lead to population explosions of octocoral-feeding species that produced mass mortalities in some Caribbean localities. Our lack of knowledge of causes and pathogenesis of octocoral diseases parallels that of hard corals. New diseases are being described almost every year concomitant with increasing seawater temperatures. The ecological and economic consequences could be significant, with drastic changes in the seascape of shallow coral reefs and other coastal marine habitats and reduction of their ecological services. Given our limited knowledge, our best options for recovery of octocorals and coral reefs in general include sound management of coastal fisheries, development and tourism; reduction of land- and sea-based pollution; and abating effects of climate change.

Book chapter↗

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Conservation Biology↗

Limnology of the Green Lakes Valley: Phytoplankton ecology and dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry at a long-term ecological research site

Background : Surface waters are the lowest points in the landscape, and therefore serve as excellent integrators and indicators of changes taking place in the surrounding terrestrial and atmospheric environment. Aims : Here we synthesise the findings of limnological studies conducted during the past 15 years in streams and lakes in the Green Lakes Valley, which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Site. Methods : The importance of these studies is discussed in the context of aquatic ecosystems as indicators, integrators, and regulators of environmental change. Specifically, investigations into climatic, hydrologic, and nutrient controls on present-day phytoplankton, and historical diatom, community composition in the alpine lake, Green Lake 4, are reviewed. In addition, studies of spatial and temporal patterns in dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry and reactive transport modelling that have taken place in the Green Lakes Valley are highlighted. Results and conclusions : The findings of these studies identify specific shifts in algal community composition and DOM biogeochemistry that are indicative of changing environmental conditions and provide a framework for detecting future environmental change in the Green Lakes Valley and in other alpine watersheds. Moreover, the studies summarised here demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring programmes such as the LTER programme.

Colorado↗

Experimental changes in food and ectoparasites affect dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls

Natal dispersal is a key demographic trait that affects population dynamics, and intraspecific variation in dispersal affects gene flow among populations and source-sink dynamics. However, relatively little is known about the selective pressures and trade-offs that animals face when departing their natal area due to the logistical difficulties associated with monitoring animals during this critical life stage. We used a randomized block design to examine the selective pressure that influence dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia ) by experimentally altering both food and ectoparasites at 135 nests. We also examined the effects of local food abundance, ectoparasite loads, and parental departure on natal dispersal timing. Juvenile burrowing owls varied widely in natal dispersal timing, and phenotypic plasticity in dispersal timing was evident in juvenile owls’ response to our experimental treatments, local conditions, and their parents’ departure from the natal area. Moreover, juveniles responded differently than their parents to experimental manipulation of food and ectoparasite loads. Juveniles typically dispersed shortly after their parents departed the natal area, but delayed dispersing more than 2 weeks after parental departure if they did not receive experimental food supplements during a low-food year. In contrast, the experimental food supplements did not affect the migratory departure decisions of adult owls in either year. Juveniles at nests treated for ectoparasites initiated dispersal at a younger age (and prior to adults in the high-food year) compared to juveniles at control nests. In contrast, parents at nests treated for ectoparasites departed later than parents at control nests. Our results suggest that unfavorable conditions (low food or high ectoparasite loads) caused juveniles to delay dispersal, but prompted adults to depart sooner. Our results highlight the extent of intraspecific variation in natal dispersal timing, and demonstrate that ecological conditions affect dispersal decisions of parents and offspring differently, which can create important trade-offs that likely affect life history strategies and responses to climatic changes.

Washington↗

Evaluating and managing environmental water regimes in a water-scarce and uncertain future

While the number of environmental flows and water science programmes continues to grow across the globe, there remains a critical need to better balance water availability in support of human and ecological needs and to recognise the environment as a legitimate user of water. In water‐stressed areas, this recognition has resulted in friction between water users in the public and private sectors. An opportunity exists for practitioners to be on the forefront of the science determining best practices for supporting environmental water regimes. This Special Issue brings together a collection of environmental flows science and water management papers organised around three major themes: (1) method development and testing; (2) application case studies; and (3) efficacy evaluation. Contents of this Special Issue are intended to foster collaboration and broaden transferability of the information, technical tools, models and methods needed to support environmental water management programmes. The technical sophistication of methods and modelling tools, while important to the advancement of environmental water science, may come at the expense of easily interpretable outcomes that positively influence management decisions. Researchers need to be more proactive in translating the results of advanced modelling methodologies into user‐friendly tools and methods. This will allow stakeholders and water managers to proactively test alternative water allocation scenarios to help address growing human water demands in the face of droughts and changes in climatic patterns. The application of environmental flows science and water management strategies cannot be done in isolation. Implementation involves a complex decision‐making process that integrates ecological, hydrologic and social science across diverse multifaceted governance systems and requires active stakeholder involvement. Scientists and managers must strengthen partnerships at multiple scales to develop sensible science investment strategies so that collective knowledge can be translated into wise environmental water management decisions.

Freshwater Biology↗

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Parasite‐mediated competition limits dominant cervid competitor

Species interactions structure ecological communities through direct and indirect pathways with ecosystem-wide implications. Despite mounting interest in the importance of indirect interactions, empirical evidence remains limited. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of parasite-mediated competition in driving community outcomes in a multi-species system of conservation and management concern. We leveraged 2 years of detection/non-detection data of moose ( Alces alces ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and parasite loads in faecal samples within a hierarchical abundance-mediated interaction model to test hypotheses regarding interactions between these cervids and their shared parasites ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis , Fascioloides magna ). We demonstrate that moose occupancy was limited by parasite-mediated competition, with no evidence of population-level effects of direct competitive interactions between moose and white-tailed deer. Such evidence of the importance of indirect interactions and resulting community outcomes is critical for species conservation and managing range contractions due to increasing pressures from habitat loss, disease and climate change.

New York↗

Detection of deer at remote camera sites in relation to snow conditions

In the rain-snow transition zone of the Pacific Northwest, climate change is expected to alter the incidence of rain-on-snow and freeze-thaw events, which will change snow density and hardness dynamics. In winter, the ability of economically and ecologically important wildlife species, such as deer ( Odocoileus spp.), to efficiently move through the landscape and access forage is mediated by snow conditions. Therefore, snow properties such as density and hardness can directly affect how energetically costly it is for these animals to survive. However, little is known about whether and how ungulates use habitats based on snow density and hardness. We deployed a stratified network of remote camera stations in complex forested terrain in Latah County, Idaho, USA, to remotely measure snow depth and detect deer. We also collected snow density and hardness measurements throughout the winter. We used these data to determine the degree to which the probability of deer presence at cameras could be explained by snow conditions and air temperature. Snow depth and density had negative relationships with the probability of deer presence, while ram resistance (a proxy for snow hardness) had a marginal positive effect. We were able to estimate snow conditions important to deer in winter 2020–2021 primarily using data obtained from cameras. This provides an important proof-of-concept that can be applied at different sites and climate conditions to gain a deeper understanding of how deer are affected by snowpack properties. These methods can be used by managers to determine how ungulates are affected by snow depth, density, and hardness collectively and subsequently inform ungulate management in a changing climate.

Idaho↗

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Texas↗

Climate-induced abrupt shifts in structural states trigger delayed transitions in functional states

Theoretical models suggest that ecosystems can be found in one of several possible alternative stable states, and a shift in structural stable state (SSS) can trigger a change in functional stable state (FSS). But we still lack the empirical evidence to confirm these states and transitions, and to inform the rates of change. Here, a 30-yr dataset from long-term ungrazed and grazed temperate grasslands was analyzed to determine whether abrupt transitions of SSS and FSS can occur. We found that the long-term ungrazed grassland experienced abrupt transitions in the dominant plant functional type (shift in SSS) that was followed by a transition between carbon sink and source 1–2 year later (shift in FSS). A directional shift in precipitation and temperature accounted for 40% of the variation in the SSS transition, while the SSS transition explained 20% of the variation in the FSS transition. In contrast, no abrupt transitions for SSS and FSS were observed in the long-term moderately grazed grassland. These findings provide important insight into the interacting effects of climate change and livestock grazing on ecosystem transitions in temperate grasslands. Moderate utilization of production in ecosystems that have co-evolved with herbivores can offset structural and functional transitions induced by climate change.

Xilin River watershed↗

Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use

Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (a) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios, (b) sensitivity, and (c) adaptive capacity. The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increases are expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Strong variation in predicted estuarine nutrient loads was observed as a function of climate model projections, while projected LULC changes were more consistently associated with elevated loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio-ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries.

Earth's Future↗

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths indicate effects of climate and lake morphology on growth patterns in Arctic lakes

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data-limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed-effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) otoliths ( N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual-level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow-through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate.

Alaska↗

Estimating the benefits of floodplain restoration to juvenile Chinook salmon in the upper San Francisco Estuary, United States, under future climate scenarios

Many river systems within the Central Valley of California have been disconnected from their floodplains, hypothesized to be partially responsible for declining Chinook salmon populations ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). The primary floodplain of the system, Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), offered an opportunity to examine whether improved connectivity between the floodplain and river could limit negative climate change effects on salmon populations. Specifically, the top of the floodplain (Fremont Weir) is being modified to provide Sacramento River Chinook salmon better access to floodplain rearing habitat. We estimated restoration effects on the Yolo By-Pass flood regime now and under future climate scenarios using flow rating curves. Additionally, we used temperature and flow-specific effects on Chinook salmon population dynamics within the Yolo By-Pass and Sacramento River complex to describe how the restoration project and climate change may interact to affect juvenile Chinook salmon biomass production. Our results indicate that the Fremont Weir restoration project will extend the frequency, timing, and duration of Yolo By-Pass flooding. Our production model indicates that the modification will result in greater salmon entrainment rates into the Yolo By-Pass, where salmon growth rates, survival rates, and biomass production were higher when compared to the Sacramento River main stem. The project appears to benefit all regional runs of Chinook salmon, which should help support life history diversity. Our results suggest that the weir modification should benefit native fish from the Central Valley that use floodplain habitat and that these benefits may be resilient to challenges created by a changing climate.

California↗

The anatomy and lethality of the Siberian Traps large igneous province

Emplacement of the Siberian Traps large igneous province (LIP) around 252 Ma coincided with the most profound environmental disruption of the past 500 million years. The enormous volume of the Siberian Traps, its ability to generate greenhouse gases and other volatiles, and a temporal coincidence with extinction all suggest a causal link. Patterns of marine and terrestrial extinction/recovery are consistent with environmental stresses potentially triggered by the Siberian Traps. However, the nature of causal links between the LIP and mass extinction remains enigmatic. Understanding the origins, anatomy, and forcing potential of the Siberian Traps LIP and the spatiotemporal patterns of resulting stresses represents a critical counterpart to high-resolution fossil and proxy records of Permian–Triassic environmental and biotic shifts. This review provides a summary of recent advances and key questions regarding the Siberian Traps in an effort to illuminate what combination of factors made the Siberian Traps a uniquely deadly LIP. Large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps are capable of triggering global environmental destabilization. Greenhouse gases generated by Siberian Traps magmatism played a major role in driving the climate changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction. The end-Permian extinction fundamentally altered the evolutionary trajectory of Earth's biosphere, creating ecological space for many of the organisms seen today. Determining the timing and patterns of end-Permian marine and terrestrial mortality and recovery and the timing and character of Siberian Traps magmatism is key in understanding the causal link between magmatism and extinction. Understanding the cause(s) of past extinction events informs hypotheses about current and future environmental destabilization.

Siberia↗