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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources

USGS2011

A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the Southeast United States: assessment of precipitation variability in dynamically downscaled reanalyses

We present an analysis of the seasonal, subseasonal, and diurnal variability of rainfall from COAPS Land- Atmosphere Regional Reanalysis for the Southeast at 10-km resolution (CLARReS10). Most of our assessment focuses on the representation of summertime subseasonal and diurnal variability.Summer precipitation in the Southeast United States is a particularly challenging modeling problem because of the variety of regional-scale phenomena, such as sea breeze, thunderstorms and squall lines, which are not adequately resolved in coarse atmospheric reanalyses but contribute significantly to the hydrological budget over the region. We find that the dynamically downscaled reanalyses are in good agreement with station and gridded observations in terms of both the relative seasonal distribution and the diurnal structure of precipitation, although total precipitation amounts tend to be systematically overestimated. The diurnal cycle of summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses is in very good agreement with station observations and a clear improvement both over their "parent" reanalyses and over newer-generation reanalyses. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is particularly well simulated in the Florida; this we attribute to the ability of the regional model to provide a more accurate representation of the spatial and temporal structure of finer-scale phenomena such as fronts and sea breezes. Over the northern portion of the domain summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses remains, as in the "parent" reanalyses, overestimated. Given the degree of success that dynamical downscaling of reanalyses demonstrates in the simulation of the characteristics of regional precipitation, its favorable comparison to conventional newer-generation reanalyses and its cost-effectiveness, we conclude that for the Southeast United states such downscaling is a viable proxy for high-resolution conventional reanalysis.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2013

Litter quality versus soil microbial community controls over decomposition: a quantitative analysis

The possible effects of soil microbial community structure on organic matter decomposition rates have been widely acknowledged, but are poorly understood. Understanding these relationships is complicated by the fact that microbial community structure and function are likely to both affect and be affected by organic matter quality and chemistry, thus it is difficult to draw mechanistic conclusions from field studies. We conducted a reciprocal soil inoculum × litter transplant laboratory incubation experiment using samples collected from a set of sites that have similar climate and plant species composition but vary significantly in bacterial community structure and litter quality. The results showed that litter quality explained the majority of variation in decomposition rates under controlled laboratory conditions: over the course of the 162-day incubation, litter quality explained nearly two-thirds (64 %) of variation in decomposition rates, and a smaller proportion (25 %) was explained by variation in the inoculum type. In addition, the relative importance of inoculum type on soil respiration increased over the course of the experiment, and was significantly higher in microcosms with lower litter quality relative to those with higher quality litter. We also used molecular phylogenetics to examine the relationships between bacterial community composition and soil respiration in samples through time. Pyrosequencing revealed that bacterial community composition explained 32 % of the variation in respiration rates. However, equal portions (i.e., 16 %) of the variation in bacterial community composition were explained by inoculum type and litter quality, reflecting the importance of both the meta-community and the environment in bacterial assembly. Taken together, these results indicate that the effects of changing microbial community composition on decomposition are likely to be smaller than the potential effects of climate change and/or litter quality changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations or atmospheric nutrient deposition.

Oecologia↗

USGS2014

Ecological consequences of the expansion of N 2 -fixing plants in cold biomes

Research in warm-climate biomes has shown that invasion by symbiotic dinitrogen (N 2 )-fixing plants can transform ecosystems in ways analogous to the transformations observed as a consequence of anthropogenic, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition: declines in biodiversity, soil acidification, and alterations to carbon and nutrient cycling, including increased N losses through nitrate leaching and emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). Here, we used literature review and case study approaches to assess the evidence for similar transformations in cold-climate ecosystems of the boreal, subarctic and upper montane-temperate life zones. Our assessment focuses on the plant genera Lupinus and Alnus , which have become invasive largely as a consequence of deliberate introductions and/or reduced land management. These cold biomes are commonly located in remote areas with low anthropogenic N inputs, and the environmental impacts of N 2 -fixer invasion appear to be as severe as those from anthropogenic N deposition in highly N polluted areas. Hence, inputs of N from N 2 fixation can affect ecosystems as dramatically or even more strongly than N inputs from atmospheric deposition, and biomes in cold climates represent no exception with regard to the risk of being invaded by N 2 -fixing species. In particular, the cold biomes studied here show both a strong potential to be transformed by N 2 -fixing plants and a rapid subsequent saturation in the ecosystem’s capacity to retain N. Therefore, analogous to increases in N deposition, N 2 -fixing plant invasions must be deemed significant threats to biodiversity and to environmental quality.

Oecologia↗

USGS2013

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Popocatépetl Volcano↗

USGS2020

Did ice-charging generate volcanic lightning during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska?

The 2016–2017 shallow submarine eruption of Bogoslof volcano in Alaska injected plumes of ash and seawater to maximum heights of ~ 12 km. More than 4550 volcanic lightning strokes were detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) over 9 months. Lightning assisted monitoring efforts by confirming ash-producing explosions in near-real time, but only 32 out of the 70 explosive events produced detectable lightning. What led to electrical activity within some of the volcanic plumes, but not others? And why did the lightning intensity wax and wane over the lifetime of individual explosions? We address these questions using multiparametric observations from ground-based lightning sensors, satellite imagery, photographs, acoustic signals, and 1D plume modeling. Detailed time-series of monitoring data show that the plumes did not produce detectable lightning until they rose higher than the atmospheric freezing level (approximated by − 20 °C temperatures). For example, on 28 May 2017 (event 40), the delayed onset of lightning coincides with modeled ice formation in upper levels of the plume. Model results suggest that microphysical conditions inside the plume rivaled those of severe thunderstorms, with liquid water contents > 5 g m −3 and vigorous updrafts > 40 m s −1 in the mixed-phase region where liquid water and ice coexist. Based on these findings, we infer that ‘thunderstorm-style’ collisional ice-charging catalyzed the volcanic lightning. However, charge mechanisms likely operated on a continuum, with silicate collisions dominating electrification in the near-vent region, and ice charging taking over in the upper-level plumes. A key implication of this study is that lightning during the Bogoslof eruption provided a reliable indicator of sustained, ash-rich plumes (and associated hazards) above the atmospheric freezing level.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Volcanic electrification: Recent advances and future perspectives

The electrification of volcanic plumes has been described intermittently since at least the time of Pliny the Younger and the 79 AD eruption of Vesuvius. Although sometimes disregarded in the past as secondary effects, recent work suggests that the electrical properties of volcanic plumes reveal intrinsic and otherwise inaccessible parameters of explosive eruptions. An increasing number of volcanic lightning studies across the last decade have shown that electrification is ubiquitous in volcanic plumes. Technological advances in engineering and numerical modelling, paired with close observation of recent eruptions and dedicated laboratory studies (shock-tube and current impulse experiments), show that charge generation and electrical activity are related to the physical, chemical, and dynamic processes underpinning the eruption itself. Refining our understanding of volcanic plume electrification will continue advancing the fundamental understanding of eruptive processes to improve volcano monitoring. Realizing this goal, however, requires an interdisciplinary approach at the intersection of volcanology, atmospheric science, atmospheric electricity, and engineering. Our paper summarizes the rapid and steady progress achieved in recent volcanic lightning research and provides a vision for future developments in this growing field.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2000

Ecosystem responses to nitrogen deposition in the Colorado Front Range

We asked whether 3–5 kg N y −1 atmospheric N deposition was sufficient to have influenced natural, otherwise undisturbed, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the Colorado Front Range by comparing ecosystem processes and properties east and west of the Continental Divide. The eastern side receives elevated N deposition from urban, agricultural, and industrial sources, compared with 1–2 kg N y −1 on the western side. Foliage of east side old-growth Englemann spruce forests have significantly lower C:N and lignin:N ratios and greater N:Mg and N:P ratios. Soil % N is higher, and C:N ratios lower in the east side stands, and potential net N mineralization rates are greater. Lake NO 3 concentrations are significantly higher in eastern lakes than western lakes. Two east side lakes studied paleolimnologically revealed rapid changes in diatom community composition and increased biovolumes and cell concentrations. The diatom flora is now representative of increased disturbance or eutrophication. Sediment nitrogen isotopic ratios have become progressively lighter over the past 50 years, coincident with the change in algal flora, possibly from an influx of isotopically light N volatilized from agricultural fields and feedlots. Seventy-five percent of the increased east side soil N pool can be accounted for by increased N deposition commensurate with human settlement. Nitrogen emissions from fixed, mobile, and agricultural sources have increased dramatically since approximately 1950 to the east of the Colorado Front Range, as they have in many parts of the world. Our findings indicate even slight increases in atmospheric deposition lead to measurable changes in ecosystem properties.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Assessing the magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming of a shallow aquifer: example from Virginia Beach, USA

Groundwater temperature measurements in a shallow coastal aquifer in Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA, suggest groundwater warming of +4.1 °C relative to deeper geothermal gradients. Observed warming is related to timing and depth of influence of two potential thermal drivers—atmospheric temperature increases and urbanization. Results indicate that up to 30 % of groundwater warming at the water table can be attributed to atmospheric warming while up to 70 % of warming can be attributed to urbanization. Groundwater temperature readings to 30-m depth correlate positively with percentage of impervious cover and negatively with percentage of tree canopy cover; thus, these two land-use metrics explain up to 70 % of warming at the water table. Analytical and numerical modeling results indicate that an average vertical groundwater temperature profile for the study area, constructed from repeat measurement at 11 locations over 15 months, is consistent with the timing of land-use change over the past century in Virginia Beach. The magnitude of human-induced warming at the water table (+4.1 °C) is twice the current seasonal temperature variation, indicating the potential for ecological impacts on wetlands and estuaries receiving groundwater discharge from shallow aquifers.

Virginia↗

USGS1998

Chlorine-36 and the initial value problem

Chlorine-36 is a radionuclide with a half-life of 3.01×10 5 a. Most 36 Cl in the hydrosphere originates from cosmic radiation interacting with atmospheric gases. Large amounts were also produced by testing thermonuclear devices during 1952–58. Because the monovalent anion, chloride, is the most common form of chlorine found in the hydrosphere and because it is extremely mobile in aqueous systems, analyses of both total Cl – as well as 36 Cl have been important in numerous hydrologic studies. In almost all applications of 36 Cl, a knowledge of the initial, or pre-anthropogenic, levels of 36 Cl is useful, as well as essential in some cases. Standard approaches to the determination of initial values have been to: (a) calculate the theoretical cosmogenic production and fallout, which varies according to latitude; (b) measure 36 Cl in present-day precipitation and assume that anthropogenic components can be neglected; (c) assume that shallow groundwater retains a record of the initial concentration; (d) extract 36 Cl from vertical depth profiles in desert soils; (e) recover 36 Cl from cores of glacial ice; and (f) calculate subsurface production of 36 Cl for water that has been isolated from the atmosphere for more than one million years. The initial value from soil profiles and ice cores is taken as the value that occurs directly below the depth of the easily defined bomb peak. All six methods have serious weaknesses. Complicating factors include 36 Cl concentrations not related to cosmogenic sources, changes in cosmogenic production with time, mixed sources of chloride in groundwater, melting and refreezing of water in glaciers, and seasonal groundwater recharge that does not contain average year-long concentrations of 36 Cl.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2004

The helium isotopic chemistry of Lake Bonney, Taylor Valley, Antarctica: Timing of late holocene climate change in Antarctica

To better understand the long-term climate history of Antarctica, we studied Lake Bonney in Taylor Valley, Southern Victoria Land (78?? S). Helium isotope ratios and He, Ne, Ar and N2 concentration data, obtained from hydrocasts in the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobesof Lake Bonney, provided important constraints on the lake's Holocene evolution. Based on very low concentrations of Ar and N2 in the ELB bottom waters, ELB was free of ice until 200 ?? 50 years ago. After which, low salinity water flowing over the sill from WLB to ELB, covered ELB and formed a perennial ice cover, inhibiting the exchange of gases with the atmosphere. In contrast to the ELB, the WLB retained an ice cover through the Holocene. The brine in the WLB bottom waters has meteoric N2 and Ar gas concentrations indicating that it has not been significantly modified by atmospheric exchange or ice formation. The helium concentrations in the deep water of WLB are the highest measured in non-thermal surface water. By fitting a diffusional loss to the 3He/4He, helium, and Cl profiles, we calculate a time of ???3000 years for the initiation of flow over the sill separating the East and West Lobes. To supply this flux of helium to the lake, a helium-rich sediment beneath the lake must be providing the helium by diffusion. If at any time during the last million years the ice cover left WLB, there would be insufficient helium available to provide the current flux to WLB. The variations in water levels in Lake Bonney can be related to climatic events that have been documented within the Southern Victoria Land region and indicate that the lakes respond significantly to regional and, perhaps, global climate forcing. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Aquatic Geochemistry↗

USGS2013

A unified assessment of hydrological and biogeochemical responses in research watersheds in Eastern Puerto Rico using runoff-concentration relations

An examination of the relation between runoff rate, R , and concentration, C , of twelve major constituents in four small watersheds in eastern Puerto Rico demonstrates a consistent pattern of responses. For solutes that are not substantially bioactive (alkalinity, silica, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and chloride), the log( R )–log( C ) relation is almost linear and can be described as a weighted average of two sources, bedrock weathering and atmospheric deposition. The slope of the relation for each solute depends on the respective source contributions to the total river load. If a solute were strictly derived from bedrock weathering, the slope would be −0.3 to −0.4, whereas if strictly derived from atmospheric deposition, the slope would be approximately −0.1. The bioactive constituents (dissolved organic carbon, nitrate, sulfate, and potassium), which are recycled by plants and concentrated in shallow soil, demonstrate nearly flat or downward-arched log( R )–log( C ) relations. The peak of the arch represents a transition from dominantly soil-matrix flow to near-surface macropore flow, and finally to overland flow. At highest observed R (80 to >90 mm/h), essentially all reactive surfaces have become wetted, and the input rate of C becomes independent of R (log( R )–log( C ) slope of –1). The highest R are tenfold greater than any previous study. Slight clockwise hysteresis for many solutes in the rivers with riparian zones or substantial hyporheic flows indicates that these settings may act as mixing end-members. Particulate constituents (suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon) show slight clockwise hysteresis, indicating mobilization of stored sediment during rising stage.

Aquatic Geochemistry↗

USGS2005

Identifying calcium sources at an acid deposition-impacted spruce forest: A strontium isotope, alkaline earth element multi-tracer approach

Depletion of calcium from forest soils has important implications for forest productivity and health. Ca is available to fine feeder roots from a number of soil organic and mineral sources, but identifying the primary source or changes of sources in response to environmental change is problematic. We used strontium isotope and alkaline earth element concentration ratios of trees and soils to discern the record of Ca sources for red spruce at a base-poor, acid deposition-impacted watershed. We measured 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and chemical compositions of cross-sectional stemwood cores of red spruce, other spruce tissues and sequential extracts of co-located soil samples. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and Sr/Ba ratios together provide a tracer of alkaline earth element sources that distinguishes the plant-available fraction of the shallow organic soils from those of deeper organic and mineral soils. Ca/Sr ratios proved less diagnostic, due to within-tree processes that fractionate these elements from each other. Over the growth period from 1870 to 1960, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and Sr/Ba ratios of stemwood samples became progressively more variable and on average trended toward values that considered together are characteristic of the uppermost forest floor. In detail the stemwood chemistry revealed an episode of simultaneous enhanced uptake of all alkaline earth elements during the growth period from 1930 to 1960, coincident with reported local and regional increases in atmospheric inputs of inorganic acidity. We attribute the temporal trends in stemwood chemistry to progressive shallowing of the effective depth of alkaline earth element uptake by fine roots over this growth period, due to preferential concentration of fine roots in the upper forest floor coupled with reduced nutrient uptake by roots in the lower organic and upper mineral soils in response to acid-induced aluminum toxicity. Although both increased atmospheric deposition and selective weathering of Ca-rich minerals such as apatite provide possible alternative explanations of aspects of the observed trends, the chemical buffering capacity of the forest floor-biomass pool limits their effectiveness as causal mechanisms.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2006

Effect of reduced winter precipitation and increased temperature on watershed solute flux, 1988-2002, Northern Michigan

Since 1987 we have studied weekly change in winter (December-April) precipitation, snowpack, snowmelt, soil water, and stream water solute flux in a small (176-ha) Northern Michigan watershed vegetated by 65-85 year-old northern hardwoods. Our primary study objective was to quantify the effect of change in winter temperature and precipitation on watershed hydrology and solute flux. During the study winter runoff was correlated with precipitation, and forest soils beneath the snowpack remained unfrozen. Winter air temperature and soil temperature beneath the snowpack increased while precipitation and snowmelt declined. Atmospheric inputs declined for H+, NO 3- , NH 4+ , dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and SO 42- . Replicated plot-level results, which could not be directly extrapolated to the watershed scale, showed 90% of atmospheric DIN input was retained in surface shallow (<15 cm deep) soils while SO 42- flux increased 70% and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) 30-fold. Most stream water base cation (C B), HCO 3- , and Cl- concentrations declined with increased stream water discharge, K+, NO 3- , and SO 42- remained unchanged, and DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) increased. Winter stream water solute outputs declined or were unchanged with time except for NO 3- and DOC which increased. DOC and DIN outputs were correlated with the percentage of winter runoff and stream discharge that occurred when subsurface flow at the plot-level was shallow (<25 cm beneath Oi). Study results suggest that the percentage of annual runoff occurring as shallow lateral subsurface flow may be a major factor regulating solute outputs and concentrations in snowmelt-dominated ecosystems. ?? Springer 2006.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2015

Soil organic matter regulates molybdenum storage and mobility in forests

The trace element molybdenum (Mo) is essential to a suite of nitrogen (N) cycling processes in ecosystems, but there is limited information on its distribution within soils and relationship to plant and bedrock pools. We examined soil, bedrock, and plant Mo variation across 24 forests spanning wide soil pH gradients on both basaltic and sedimentary lithologies in the Oregon Coast Range. We found that the oxidizable organic fraction of surface mineral soil accounted for an average of 33 %of bulk soil Mo across all sites, followed by 1.4 % associated with reducible Fe, Al, and Mn-oxides, and 1.4 % in exchangeable ion form. Exchangeable Mo was greatest at low pH, and its positive correlation with soil carbon (C) suggests organic matter as the source of readily exchangeable Mo. Molybdenum accumulation integrated over soil profiles to 1 m depth ( τMo Nb ) increased with soil C, indicating that soil organic matter regulates long-term Mo retention and loss from soil. Foliar Mo concentrations displayed no relationship with bulk soil Mo, and were not correlated with organic horizon Mo or soil extractable Mo, suggesting active plant regulation of Mo uptake and/or poor fidelity of extractable pools to bioavailability. We estimate from precipitation sampling that atmospheric deposition supplies, on average, over 10 times more Mo annually than does litterfall to soil. In contrast, bedrock lithology had negligible effects on foliar and soil Mo concentrations and on Mo distribution among soil fractions. We conclude that atmospheric inputs may be a significant source of Mo to forest ecosystems, and that strong Mo retention by soil organic matter limits ecosystem Mo loss via dissolution and leaching pathways.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO 2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2017

Critical zone properties control the fate of nitrogen during experimental rainfall in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range

Several decades of research in alpine ecosystems have demonstrated links among the critical zone, hydrologic response, and the fate of elevated atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition. Less research has occurred in mid-elevation forests, which may be important for retaining atmospheric N deposition. To explore the fate of N in the montane zone, we conducted plot-scale experimental rainfall events across a north–south transect within a catchment of the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory. Rainfall events mimicked relatively common storms (20–50% annual exceedance probability) and were labeled with 15 N-nitrate ( NO 3 − "> NO − 3 NO3− ) and lithium bromide tracers. For 4 weeks, we measured soil–water and leachate concentrations of Br − , 15 NO 3 − , "> 15 NO − 3 , 15NO3−, and NO 3 − "> NO − 3 NO3− daily, followed by recoveries of 15 N species in bulk soils and microbial biomass. Tracers moved immediately into the subsurface of north-facing slope plots, exhibiting breakthrough at 10 and 30 cm over 22 days. Conversely, little transport of Br − or 15 NO 3 − "> 15 NO − 3 15NO3− occurred in south-facing slope plots; tracers remained in soil or were lost via pathways not measured. Hillslope position was a significant determinant of soil 15 N- NO 3 − "> NO − 3 NO3− recoveries, while soil depth and time were significant determinants of 15 N recovery in microbial biomass. Overall, 15 N recovery in microbial biomass and leachate was greater in upper north-facing slope plots than lower north-facing (toeslope) and both south-facing slope plots in August; by October, 15 N recovery in microbial N biomass within south-facing slope plots had increased substantially. Our results point to the importance of soil properties in controlling the fate of N in mid-elevation forests during the summer season.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2013

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO 2 equivalent using 100-year CH 4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH 4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH 4 even though CH 4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2019

Resolving a paradox—high mercury deposition, but low bioaccumulation in northeastern Puerto Rico

At a “clean air” trade winds site in northeastern Puerto Rico, we found an apparent paradox: atmospheric total mercury (THg) deposition was highest of any site in the USA Mercury Deposition Network, but assimilation into the local food web was quite low. Avian blood THg concentrations (n = 31, from eight species in five foraging guilds) ranged widely from 0.2 to 32 ng g −1 (median of 4.3 ng g −1 ). Within this population, THg was significantly greater at a low-elevation site near a wetland compared to an upland montane site, even when the comparison was limited to a single species. Overall, however, THg concentrations were approximately an order of magnitude lower than comparable populations in the continental U.S. In surface soil and sediment, potential rates of demethylation were 3 to 9-fold greater than those for Hg(II)-methylation (based on six radiotracer amendment incubations), but rates of change of ambient MeHg pools showed a slight net positive Hg(II)-methylation. Thus, the resolution of the paradox is that MeHg degradation approximately keeps pace with MeHg production in this landscape. Further, any net production of MeHg is subject to frequent flushing by high rainfall on chronically wet soils. The interplay of these microbial processes and hydrology appears to shield the local food web from adverse effects of high atmospheric mercury loading. This scenario may play out in other humid tropical ecosystems as well, but it is difficult to evaluate because coordinated studies of Hg deposition, methylation, and trophic uptake have not been conducted at other tropical sites.

Puerto Rico↗