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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Photogrammetry-based body condition for monitoring an Arctic marine mammal experiencing habitat loss

Monitoring animal body condition can provide insight on population responses to environmental change. Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) are experiencing loss of their sea ice habitat which has decreased the time that females spend foraging during a critical period of pregnancy and lactation. Here we investigate the potential for body condition to track demographic change and be monitored via two-dimensional aerial imagery by (1) examining whether walrus somatic growth and body mass data tracked estimated historic demographic changes, (2) collecting morphometric and body mass data and aerial imagery of walruses in human care to determine if sex, age group, and body size and condition can be determined from imagery, and (3) examining aerial imagery from a large coastal haulout used primarily by females and young to estimate potential sample sizes of measurable walruses. Body mass and growth in body length decreased between the last 1970s and early 1980s concurrent with a period when the population apparently approached carrying capacity and subsequently declined. Measures from aerial imagery (1) accurately distinguished reproductive age females from subadults and adult males and (2) enabled body mass estimates with 6-7% error using either areal footprint or a combination of length and width. We found a mean of 216 ± 77 walruses appropriately positioned for measurement from aerial surveys of the haulout enabling measurements of ≥7000 individuals annually via repeated daily imagery. Our results suggest that body mass of reproductive age females and growth of dependent young may be useful indicators to augment monitoring of the Pacific walrus population and can be achieved via non-invasive aerial imagery collections.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Climatic variation drives growth potential of juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) along a sub-Arctic boreal riverscape

Climatic variation is a key driver of freshwater physical processes that in turn control stream fish growth and population dynamics at fine spatial scales and species distributions across broad landscapes. A recent downturn in Chinook Salmon returns across the Yukon River basin, Alaska, USA, and Yukon Territories, Canada, has led to hardship among user groups and increased interest in understanding how freshwater processes affect population persistence within this important commercial, recreational, and subsistence fishery. Here we present results for the Chena River basin, interior Alaska, where we used field observations and riverscape-scale spatially-explicit models to assess the influence of stream temperature on juvenile Chinook Salmon growth potential among years (2003 2015) and across 438 stream-km. We ran bioenergetic simulations for warm and cool year scenarios and contrasted temperature model precision and growth among different habitat types (small and large tributaries, main stem, side channels) based on field estimates of growth, size, and diet, and measured stream temperatures. Stream temperature regimes predicted from remotely-sensed land surface temperature were precise during the open water season (R2 > 0.87; RMSE < 1.1 C) although the relationship was weakest in groundwater-mediated tributary habitats. Field observations revealed salmon were 67% larger by mass (g) in September during a warm year versus a cool year from main stem sites. Bioenergetic simulations predicted that, on average, growth potential was 42% higher in warm years, although growth potential varied across the riverscape as much as 60% between cool upstream and warm downstream habitats. Climate variability is clearly an important driver of freshwater habitat conditions and has a large role in controlling freshwater growth of juvenile salmon. A better understanding of how climate influences growth conditions in different habitat types and across broad landscapes will be critical for conservation and management of Alaskan Chinook Salmon stocks under an expected warmer and more variable climate.

Alaska, Yukon↗
USGS2019

Beneath the arctic greening: Will soils lose or gain carbon or perhaps a little of both?

Ecosystem shifts related to climate change are anticipated for the next decades to centuries based on a number of conceptual and experimentally derived models of plant structure and function. Belowground, the potential responses of soil systems are less well known. We used geochemical steady state models, soil density fractionation, and soil radiocarbon data to constrain changes in soil carbon based on measurements from detrital (free light), aggregate-bound (occluded) and complexed or chemically bound (mineral associated) carbon pools and for bulk soil. We explored a space-for-time sequence of soils along a cold-to-warm climatic gradient from Alaskan Black Spruce forest soil with permafrost (Gelisols; 50 cm Mean Annual Temperature −1.5 ºC), Alaskan White Spruce forest soil lacking permafrost (Inceptisols; 50 cm MAT +3 ºC ), and Iowa Grassland soil lacking permafrost (Mollisols; 50 cm MAT +9 ºC) developed on similar geologic substrates (wind-blown loess deposits). These temperature ranges were also representative of temperatures at 50 cm soil depth from model output by the Community Land Model for the years 2014, 2100, and 2300 for Interior Alaska. Fitting an exponential equation to depth trends in soil C down to 2 m depths, we found that depth distributions of organic C were related mainly to depths of rooting and changes in bulk density. Using output from the geochemical steady state model, the direction and magnitude of the C loss or gain upon ecosystem shift was dictated by the C stocks of initial and final ecosystems. Radiocarbon measurements specific to each soil fraction (free light, occluded, and mineral associated) allowed us to constrain the timing of the potential loss or gain of C in each fraction driven by climatic shifts. Thawing from the Gelisol to Inceptisol in loess parent materials from present day to year 2100 resulted in small net gains to soil C, reflecting the net balance between loss of detrital and gain into occluded and mineral associated C. Greater warming and shifts from Inceptisol to Mollisol analogous to predicted warming from circa 2100 to 2300 resulted in net C losses from both occluded and mineral associated C, although small gains to the free light C fraction occurred throughout the depth profile. Gains to occluded and mineral associated C post- thaw likely reflect aggregate formation and physical protection of C as well as formation of organo-mineral compounds that accompany microbial processing. Greater warming and shifts from Inceptisol to Mollisol, which are analogous to predicted warming circa 2100 to 2300, resulted in net C losses from both occluded and mineral associated C resulting from enhanced decomposition, small gains to the free light C fraction occurred throughout the transition to Mollisol reflecting deeper rooting of the tallgrass prairie system.

SOIL↗
USGS2015

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS1999

Antibodies against Pasteurella multocida in snow geese in the western arctic

To determine if lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) are a potential reservoir for the Pasteurella multocida bacterium that causes avian cholera, serum samples and/or pharyngeal swabs were collected from > 3,400 adult geese breeding on Wrangel Island (Russia) and Banks Island (Canada) during 1993-1996. Pharyngeal swab sampling rarely (> 0.1%) detected birds that were exposed to P. multocida in these populations. Geese with serum antibody levels indicating recent infection with P. multocida were found at both breeding colonies. Prevalence of seropositive birds was 3.5% at Wrangel Island, an area that has no recorded history of avian cholera epizootics. Prevalence of seropositive birds was 2.8% at Banks Island in 1994, but increased to 8.2% during 1995 and 1996 when an estimated 40,000-60,000 snow geese were infected. Approximately 50% of the infected birds died during the epizootic and a portion of the surviving birds may have become carriers of the disease. This pattern of prevalence indicated that enzootic levels of infection with P. multocida occurred at both breeding colonies. When no avian cholera epizootics occurred (Wrangel Island, Banks Island in 1994), female snow geese (4.7%) had higher antibody prevalence than males (2.0%).

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗