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USGS2013

Fate of geothermal mercury from Yellowstone National Park in the Madison and Missouri Rivers, USA

Mercury is a worldwide contaminant derived from natural and anthropogenic sources. River systems play a key role in the transport and fate of Hg because they drain widespread areas affected by aerial Hg deposition, transport Hg away from point sources, and are sites of Hg biogeochemical cycling and bioaccumulation. The Madison and Missouri Rivers provide a natural laboratory for studying the fate and transport of Hg contributed by geothermal discharge in Yellowstone National Park and from the atmosphere for a large drainage basin in Montana and Wyoming, United States of America (USA). Assessing Hg in these rivers also is important because they support fishery-based recreation and irrigated agriculture. During 2002 to 2006, Hg concentrations were measured in water, sediment, and fish from the main stem, 7 tributaries, and 6 lakes. Using these data, the geothermal Hg load to the Madison River and overall fate of Hg along 378 km of the Missouri River system were assessed. Geothermal Hg was the primary source of elevated total Hg concentrations in unfiltered water (6.2–31.2 ng/L), sediment (148–1100 ng/g), and brown and rainbow trout (0.12– 1.23 µg total Hg/g wet weight skinless filet) upstream from Hebgen Lake (the uppermost impoundment). Approximately 7.0 kg/y of geothermal Hg was discharged from the park via the Madison River, and an estimated 87% of that load was lost to sedimentation in and volatilization from Hebgen Lake. Consequently, Hg concentrations in water, sediment, and fish from main-stem sites downstream from Hebgen Lake were not elevated and were comparable to concentrations reported for other areas affected solely by atmospheric Hg deposition. Some Hg was sequestered in sediment in the downstream lakes. Bioaccumulation of Hg in fish along the river system was strongly correlated (r 2 =0.76–0.86) with unfiltered total and methyl Hg concentrations in water and total Hg in sediment.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS1981

Results of a modeling workshop concerning preservation and protection of wetlands in North Dakota

In a recently signed letter, the Governor of North Dakota and the Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks charged a joint state-federal study group with examination of two separate questions: 1) mitigation for the Garrison Diversion Project; and 2) planning for long-range protection and preservation of fish and wildlife habitat in North Dakota. The cochair for this study group (the Secretary of the Interior's Field Representative, Denver, Colorado, and the Natural Resources Coordinator for North Dakota) further articulated the charge concerning the second of these two questions to include three steps: 1) development of a general plan for preservation and protection of migratory waterfowl and their associated wetland habitat; 2) a comprehensive analysis of alternative strategies, including opportunities and constraints, for achieving the goals articulated in Step 1; and 3) design of a coordinated state-federal public information program to assist in plan implementation. In order to obtain input from a variety of interests, the joint study group initiated step 2 activities with a five-day workshop in Bismarck, N. D.; December 8-12, 1980. The objectives of the workshop were: 1) to identify alternative strategies for preserving and enhancing waterfowl production habitat in North Dakota; 2) to identify opportunities and constraints associated with those alternatives; and 3) to promote communication and understanding of the implications of those alternatives for all affected parties. To achieve these objectives, the workshop utilized a group of concepts and techniques collectively known as Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA). Developed by Dr. C. S. Holling and his co-workers at the University of British Columbia, the AEA process involves planners, managers, scientists, and other interested parties in a structures atmosphere whose focus is the construction and examination of a computerized simulation model of the resource system under consideration. The modeling process is used to promote communication, identify pertinent issues, identify key data gaps and uncertainties, direct research efforts to fill those gaps, and explore the possible consequences of various management alternatives. The workshop, which was facilitated by the AEA Group of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), was attended by approximately 25 invited participants representing a variety of interests concerned with the wetlands protection issue in North Dakota. During the week workshop participants conceptualized and constructed a computerized simulation model incorporating many of the hydrologic, agricultural, and wildlife aspects of the wetlands issue. During the process of constructing this model and examining its behavior, participants identified several interesting alternative strategies that may prove useful in an overall wetland protection program, along with a variety of constraints associated with each. Perhaps the most interesting of these alternatives revolve around the idea that there may be a variety of cases in which water can be retained on the land, with concommitant benefits both for wildlife and flood control, without detriment to agricultural productivity. Examples of this kind of activity include flooding of previously drained Type I wetlands in summer fallow areas, installation of smaller drains in Type I and III wetlands to reduce the rate at which water runs off in the spring, and use of strategically located gates in drainage channels associated with the state highway system to slow runoff and create wetland habitat. Several other alternatives discussed at the workshop are related to the notion of using available, uncommitted water supplied to enhance or create wetlands. Several cases were cited in which more certain water supplies would be useful in increasing waterfowl production or reducing disease problems, especially in dry years. Water for such purposes might come from a variety of current of proposed water development projects, both large and small scale. Finally, the potential for re-establishment of "unsuccessfully" drained (i.e., not consistently usable for agricultural purposes) wetlands was discussed at some length. There are apparently substantial acreages of such wetlands in North Dakota and a program to acquire and rehabilitate them might be of considerable utility. The workshop was thus successful in accomplishing its first two objectives--identification of alternative strategies, opportunities, and constraints. However, it would be naive to suppose that any of the alternatives discussed offers a complete, simple solution to the wetlands issue in North Dakota. The most important result of the workshop may therefore be that which was accomplished relative to the third objective--promotion of communication and understanding. It was gratifying and encouraging to see the spirit of communication and cooperation that developed by the end of the workshop. The fact that representatives of many of the interests concerned with the wetlands issue participated in an open exchange of ideas and information marks an important step forward. We believe that it is imperative that this cooperative attitude be maintained, and that there are a variety of ways in which this might be accomplished. Perhaps the simplest would be a small-scale pilot project and research effort to determine the effects of wetland maintenance on summer fallow areas. Such a research program would provide not only useful information, but an opportunity for many of the affected interests to begin working toward mutually acceptable solutions to the overall wetlands issue.

North Dakota↗

USGS1995

Simulation of the water-table altitude in the Biscayne Aquifer, southern Dade County, Florida, water years 1945-89

A digital model of the flow system in the highly permeable surficial Biscayne aquifer of southern Dade County, Florida, was constructed for the purposes of better understanding processes that influence the flow system and of supporting the construction of a subregional model of the transport of brackish water from a flowing artesian well. Problems that needed resolution in this endeavor included the development of methods to represent the influence of flowing surface water in seasonally inundated wetlands and the influence of a network of controlled canals developed in stages during the simulation time period (water years 1945-89). An additional problem was the general lack of natural aquifer boundaries near the boundaries of the study area. The model construction was based on a conceptual description of the Biscayne aquifer developed from the results of previous U.S. Geological Survey investigations. Modifications were made to an existing three-dimensional finite-difference simulator of ground-water flow to enable an upper layer of the grid to represent seasonally occurring overland sheetflow in a series of transient simulations of water levels from 1945 to 1989. A rewetting procedure was developed for the simulator that permitted resaturation of cells in this layer when the wet season recurred. An "equivalent hydraulic conductivity" coefficient was assigned to the overland flow layer that was analogous, subject to various approximations, to the use of the Manning equation. The surficial semiconfining peat and marl layers, levees, canals, and control structures were also represented as part of the model grid with the appropriate choices of hydraulic coefficient values. For most of the Biscayne aquifer grid cells, the value assigned to hydraulic conductivity for model calibration was 30,000 feet per day and the value assigned to porosity was 20 percent. Boundary conditions were specified near data sites having long-term records of surface-water stages or water-table altitudes, and modifications to the simulator permitted the specification of time-varying pressures at boundary grid cells. Rainfall data from a station in Homestead generally were used as an areally uniform rainfall specification throughout the modeled region. Maximum evapotranspiration rates ranged seasonally from a minimum of 0.08 inch per day in January to a maximum of 0.21 inch per day between June and October. Shallow-root and deep-root zone depths for the evapotranspiration calculation were 3 and 20 feet in the coastal ridge and were 0.10 and 5 feet in the glades regions where peat and marl covers occurred. Results of sensitivity analyses indicated that the simulations of stages and water levels were relatively unresponsive to 50 percent changes in aquifer hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and the equivalent hydraulic conductivity of overland flow. However, 20 percent changes in rainfall and maximum evapotranspiration rates produced significantly different water levels, as did interchange of coastal ridge and glades deep-root zone (extinction) depths. Water levels were simulated very well at most measurement sites. Sensitivity analyses illustrated the significant influence of the uncontrolled agricultural drainage canals on pre-1968 regional water levels and the further influence of Black Creek Canal in draining a region of high water after 1961. Other analyses indicated that the flood-control system of 1968-82 lowered peak water levels in the affected region by as much as 1.5 feet in the wet summers of 1968, 1969, and 1981, and that Levee 67 Extended channeled flows from the S-12 spillway structures and raised overland flow stages in Shark River Slough. Hypothetical scenarios of well-field pumping in the vicinity of Levee 31N indicated that the pumping induced a significant amount of recharge from the adjacent borrow canal, the degree of which depended on the distance between the canal and the well field. The computed ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall recharge ranged from 88 to 94 percent during water years 1945-82. The ratio increased to about 97.9 percent during water years 1983-89, possibly because of changing water-management practices and deficient rainfall.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Characterizing mauka-to-makai connections for aquatic ecosystem conservation on Maui, Hawaiʻi

Mauka-to-makai (mountain to sea in the Hawaiian language) hydrologic connectivity – commonly referred to as ridge-to-reef – directly affects biogeochemical processes and socioecological functions across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine systems. The supply of freshwater to estuarine and nearshore environments in a ridge-to-reef system supports the food, water, and habitats utilized by marine fauna . In addition, the ecosystem services derived from this land-to-sea connectivity support social and cultural practices (hereafter referred to as socio-cultural) including fishing, aquaculture, wetland agriculture, religious ceremonies, and recreational activities. To effectively guide island resource management, a better understanding of the linkages from ridge-to-reef across natural and social usages is critical, particularly in the context of climate change, with anticipated increasing temperature and shifting precipitation patterns. The objective of this study was to identify spatial linkages that promote multiple and diverse uses, following the ridge-to-reef concept, at an island-wide scale to identify regions of high conservation importance for aquatic resources. We selected the Island of Maui as a study representative of many Pacific islands. Diverse datasets, including agricultural lands within watersheds, wetland locations, presence of stream species, indicators of freshwater input from streams, coral cover, nearshore fish biomass, socio-cultural data such as fishpond locations, wetland taro cultivation, beach recreation use, and lastly the dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) future climate projections scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 & 8.5) were used to examine the spatial linkages through hydrological connectivity from land to the sea. Zonation spatial planning software was used to prioritize areas of high management and conservation value and to help inform aquatic resources management. The resulting prioritized areas included many minimally disturbed watersheds in east Maui and western nearshore and coastal zones that are adjacent to diverse coral reefs. These results are driven by the importance of fish biomass and coral reef distribution as well as traditional wetland taro cultivation and coastal access points for recreation. These results underline the importance of examining ridge-to-reef systems for aquatic resource management and including important social and cultural values in resource management upon planning adaptation strategies for climate change. Improving our understanding of diverse natural and socio-cultural influences on habitat conditions and their values in these areas provides an opportunity to strategically plan future management and conservation actions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Assessing the potential effects of fungicides on nontarget gut fungi (trichomycetes) and their associated larval black fly hosts

Fungicides are moderately hydrophobic and have been detected in water and sediment, particularly in agricultural watersheds, but typically are not included in routine water quality monitoring efforts. This is despite their widespread use and frequent application to combat fungal pathogens. Although the efficacy of these compounds on fungal pathogens is well documented, little is known about their effects on nontarget fungi. This pilot study, a field survey in southwestern Idaho from April to December 2010 on four streams with varying pesticide inputs (two agricultural and two reference sites), was conducted to assess nontarget impact of fungicides on gut fungi, or trichomycetes. Tissues of larval black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae), hosts of gut fungi, were analyzed for pesticide accumulation. Fungicides were detected in hosts from streams within agricultural watersheds but were not detected in hosts from reference streams. Gut fungi from agricultural sites exhibited decreased percent infestation, density and sporulation within the gut, and black fly tissues had elevated pesticide concentrations. Differences observed between the sites demonstrate a potential effect on this symbiotic system. Future research is needed to parse out the details of the complex biotic and abiotic relationships; however, these preliminary results indicate that impacts to nontarget organisms could have far-reaching consequences within aquatic ecosystems.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2013

Fatty acid composition at the base of aquatic food webs is influenced by habitat type and watershed land use

Spatial variation in food resources strongly influences many aspects of aquatic consumer ecology. Although large-scale controls over spatial variation in many aspects of food resources are well known, others have received little study. Here we investigated variation in the fatty acid (FA) composition of seston and primary consumers within (i.e., among habitats) and among tributary systems of Lake Michigan, USA. FA composition of food is important because all metazoans require certain FAs for proper growth and development that cannot be produced de novo, including many polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Here we sampled three habitat types (river, rivermouth and nearshore zone) in 11 tributaries of Lake Michigan to assess the amount of FA in seston and primary consumers of seston. We hypothesize that among-system and among-habitat variation in FAs at the base of food webs would be related to algal production, which in turn is influenced by three land cover characteristics: 1) combined agriculture and urban lands (an indication of anthropogenic nutrient inputs that fuel algal production), 2) the proportion of surface waters (an indication of water residence times that allow algal producers to accumulate) and 3) the extent of riparian forested buffers (an indication of stream shading that reduces algal production). Of these three land cover characteristics, only intense land use appeared to strongly related to seston and consumer FA and this effect was only strong in rivermouth and nearshore lake sites. River seston and consumer FA composition was highly variable, but that variation does not appear to be driven by the watershed land cover characteristics investigated here. Whether the spatial variation in FA content at the base of these food webs significantly influences the production of economically important species higher in the food web should be a focus of future research.

Michigan;Wisconsin↗

USGS2013

Drought and deluge: Effects of recent climate variability on groundwater levels in eastern Arkansas

Arkansas experienced wide extremes in climate variability during the period of 2005 to 2010, recording the largest annual precipitation ever recorded in the State (100.05 inches) in 2009. Many weather stations across the State reported between 80 to 90 inches of rainfall in 2009. For comparison, the average annual precipitation in Little Rock, Arkansas, for the period 1878 to 2010 was 47.1 inches. In contrast, 2005 and 2010 were the 7th and 14th driest years on record in Little Rock with 34.55 and 36.52 inches, respectively; both tied as the hottest years ever recorded in Arkansas. The wettest year on record in Little Rock (2009) was interspersed within these dry years, with a total of 81.79 inches. Fifteen weather stations within the State ranked 2009 as the wettest year on record. Extremes in annual precipitation rates may lead to greater variability in groundwater recharge rates and water use, particularly in the agricultural areas in eastern Arkansas that rely heavily on groundwater produced from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (hereafter referred to as the alluvial aquifer). How does this variability affect the groundwater system and water use therein? Are the effects of this variability discernable in measured water levels in wells? Czarnecki and Schrader examined these questions and provided some insights, the results of which are presented here.

Arkansas↗

USGS2016

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions. The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

USGS2023

Compound flood model for the lower Nooksack River and delta, western Washington—Assessment of vulnerability and nature-based adaptation opportunities to mitigate higher sea level and stream flooding

Higher sea level and stream runoff associated with climate change is expected to lead to greater lowland flooding across the Pacific Northwest. Increases in stream runoff that range from 20 to 32 percent by the 2040s and from 52 to 72 percent by the 2080s is expected to steadily increase flood risk. Flood risk is also expected to increase in response to the landward shift in high tides and storm surge, which will retard downstream conveyance. The combination of higher stream runoff, which is expected to drive greater fluvial sediment delivery to the coast, and more frequent, higher coastal waters relative to present-day (2023) levels, which will retard streamflow, is projected to cause more sedimentation across coastal and estuarine systems, exacerbating the flood risk. In the Nooksack River delta of western Washington, as in many Puget Sound deltas, resilient adaptation planning to mitigate impacts to community assets and infrastructure, nationally essential agricultural areas, and valued habitats and restoration investments that support endangered and threatened salmon recovery are underway but are in need of more informed projections of compound flood hazards. A Delft3D Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was constructed and used to assess changes in the extent, frequency, and timing of flood exposure associated with higher sea level and stream runoff projected to occur in the 2040s and 2080s. The model was also used to evaluate the change in and potential mitigating effects to flood exposure associated with individual and cumulative salmon-habitat-restoration strategies. Model simulations also evaluated the sensitivity of sedimentation to the individual and cumulative effects of higher fluvial delivery, trapping by sea-level rise, and changes in hydrodynamics associated with the rerouting of flows by proposed restoration strategies. The model performed well, having mean absolute errors for water levels below 1 foot (0.3 meters) when tested during a 2-year period for two recent flood events of record, the February 2, 2020, “Super Bowl flood” and the January 8, 2009, stream flood, both of which caused substantial flooding and damage across the study area. Fluvial discharge was found to dominate flood hazard at higher elevations in the study area, whereas near the coast, sea-level rise is computed to turn a less extreme 2-year (50 percent annual exceedance probability [AEP]) bankfull streamflow, which, at present (2023), causes nuisance flooding, into a more extreme 5-year (20 percent AEP) and 10 percent AEP stream-flood event by the 2050s and 2100, respectively. The February 2020 Super Bowl flood was calculated to be a 10-year or 10 percent AEP peak-flow event, and the January 2009 flood was calculated to be a 25-year (4 percent AEP) peak-flow event. Extreme events such as the February 2020 Super Bowl flood and the January 2009 flood caused extensive damage across the Nooksack River floodplain, and model computations predict these magnitudes of events would have notably greater effect in the 2040s and 2080s in response to higher projected sea level and stream runoff. The modeled January 2009 flood is predicted to transform into a flood event, causing flood exposure that is comparable to the 100-year or 1 percent AEP flood by the 2040s. The modeled January 2009 flood is also predicted to exceed the flood exposure of the recent November 16, 2021, flood, which caused substantial damage in the lower Nooksack River floodplain and restricted access for emergency-management efforts on important arterial roadways in the area; the measured peak discharge during the November 16, 2021, flood exceeded that of the January 2009 flood. Two of several identified alternative strategies that reroute floodwaters to restore salmon habitat were projected to reduce exposure to the increasingly impactful 10 and 4 percent AEP stream-flood events through the 2080s. The effects of the suggested alternatives, however, were found to reduce flow velocities, promote additional sedimentation, and reduce flow conveyance in the main-stem Nooksack River, a concern to flood-management efforts, navigation, and fishing. The model also suggests that main-stem channel sedimentation is likely, given projected climate change. Higher stream runoff that increases fluvial-sediment delivery and higher sea levels that retard downstream flow are expected to lead to greater sedimentation. Lastly, the model was used to assess the sensitivity of flood exposure to the individual and cumulative effects of climate changes, alternative strategies, and sedimentation, including recently observed decadal-scale aggradation patterns. These results indicate that sediment is likely to continue to be a challenge to flood-management efforts and that nature-based alternatives that benefit ecosystem restoration may also mitigate flood exposure for several decades.

Washington↗

USGS2013

LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing refinement of the LANDFIRE vegetation and fuel data is necessary to improve the quality and usability of the data and to capture landscape disturbance. LANDFIRE relies on Landsat multi-spectral imagery to produce and update vegetation and fuel data. The deep Landsat archive provides data needed for vegetation classification, change analysis, and historical disturbance characterization, for which LANDFIRE has used more than 24,000 image scenes since the program’s inception. In addition, LF 2010 used airborne and spaceborne lidar, and spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map vegetation structure in areas where ground-based field information was lacking, including Alaska and U.S.-affiliated islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. The mapping of insular areas is new for the 2010 data release; previous versions of LANDFIRE were limited to the conterminous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.

Earthzine↗

USGS1981

The role of remotely sensed and other spatial data for predictive modeling: the Umatilla, Oregon example

The U. S. Geological Survey's Earth Resources Observations Systems Data Center, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, developed and tested techniques that used remotely sensed and other spatial data in predictive models to evaluate irrigation agriculture in the Umatilla River Basin of north-central Oregon. Landsat data and 1:24,000-scale aerial photographs were initially used to map he expansion of irrigate from 1973 to 1979 and to identify crops under irrigation in 1979. The crop data were then used with historical water requirement figures and digital topographic and hydrographic data to estimate water and power use for the 1979 irrigation season. The final project task involved production of a composite map of land suitability for irrigation development based on land cover (from Landsat), land-ownership, soil irrigability, slope gradient, and potential energy costs. The methods and data used in the study demonstrated the flexibility of remotely sensed and other spatial data as input for predictive models. When combined, they provided useful answers to complex questions facing resource managers.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Assessment of capacity-building activities for forest measurement, reporting, and verification, 2011–15

This report was written as a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, SilvaCarbon, and Wageningen University with funding provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development and the European Space Agency, respectively, to address a pressing need for enhanced result-based monitoring and evaluation of delivered capacity-building activities. For this report, the capacity-building activities delivered by capacity-building providers (referred to as “providers” hereafter) during 2011–15 (the study period) to support countries in building measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) were assessed and evaluated. Summarizing capacity-building activities and outcomes across multiple providers was challenging. Many of the providers did not have information readily available, which precluded them from participating in this study despite the usefulness of their information. This issue led to a key proposed future action: Capacity-building providers could establish a central repository within the Global Forestry Observation Initiative (GFOI; http://www.gfoi.org/ ) where data from past, current, and future activities of all capacity-building providers could be stored. The repository could be maintained in a manner to continually learn from previous lessons. Although various providers monitored and evaluated the success of their capacity-building activities, such evaluations only assessed the success of immediate outcomes and not the overarching outcomes and impacts of activities implemented by multiple providers. Good monitoring and evaluation should continuously monitor and periodically evaluate all factors affecting the outcomes of a provided capacity-building activity. The absence of a methodology to produce quantitative evidence of a causal link between multiple capacity-building activities delivered and successful outcomes left only a plausible association. A previous publication argued that plausible association, although not a precise measurement of cause and effect, was a realistic tool. Our review of the available literature on this subject did not find another similar assessment to assess capacity-building activities for supporting the countries in building MRV system for REDD+. Four countries from the main forested regions of Africa, the Americas, and Asia were chosen as subjects for this report based on the length of time SilvaCarbon and other providers have provided capacity-building activities toward MRV system for REDD+: Colombia (the Americas), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC; Africa), Peru (the Americas), and the Republic of the Philippines (referred to as “the Philippines” hereafter; Asia). Several providers were contacted for information to include in this report, but, because of various constraints, only SilvaCarbon, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) participated in this study. These three providers supported various targeted capacity-building activities through-out Africa, the Americas, and Asia, including the following: technical workshops at national and regional levels (referred to as “workshops” hereafter), hands on training, study tours, technical details by experts, technical consultation between providers and recipients, sponsorship for travel, organizing network meetings, developing sampling protocols, assessing deforestation and degradation drivers, estimating carbon stock and flow, designing monitoring systems for multiple uses, promoting public-private partnerships to scale up investments on MRV system for REDD+, and assisting with the design of national forest monitoring systems. Their activities were planned in coordination with key partners in each country and region and with the support and assistance of other providers. Note that several other organizations and institutions assisted the providers to deliver capacity-building activities, including Boston University, Conservation International, Stanford University, University of Maryland, and Wageningen University & Research.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

The hydrogeology and hydrologic characteristics of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system were characterized as part of ongoing U.S. Geological Survey efforts to assess groundwater availability across the Nation. The need for such a study in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province (Ozark Plateaus) is highlighted by increasing demand on groundwater resources by the 5.3 million people of the Ozark Plateaus, water-level declines in some areas, and potential impacts of climate change on groundwater availability. The subject study integrates knowledge gained through local investigation within a regional perspective to develop a regional conceptual model of groundwater flow in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (Ozark system), a key phase of groundwater availability assessment. The Ozark system extends across much of southern Missouri and northwestern and north-central Arkansas and smaller areas of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. The region is one of the major karst landscapes in the United States, and karst aquifers are predominant in the Ozark system. Groundwater flow is ultimately controlled by aquifer and confining unit lithologies and stratigraphic relations, geologic structure, karst development, and the character of surficial lithologies and regolith mantle. The regolith mantle is a defining element of Ozark Plateaus karst, affecting recharge, karst development, and vulnerability to surface-derived contaminants. Karst development is more advanced—as evidenced by larger springs, hydraulic characteristics, and higher well yields—in the Salem Plateau and in the northern part of the Springfield Plateau (generally north of the Arkansas-Missouri border) as compared with the southern part of the Springfield Plateau in Arkansas, largely due to thinner, less extensive regolith and purer carbonate lithology. Precipitation is the ultimate source of all water to the Ozark system, and the hydrologic budget for the Ozark system includes inputs from recharge, losing-stream sections, and groundwater inflows and losses of water to gaining-stream sections, groundwater withdrawals, and surface-water and groundwater outflows to neighboring systems. Groundwater recharge, estimated by a soil-water-balance model, represents about 24 percent, or 11 inches, of 43.9 inches annual precipitation. Recharge is spatially variable, being greater in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau than in the southern Springfield Plateau (generally south of the Arkansas border) because of differences in regolith mantle extent and thickness and carbonate lithology and hydraulic properties. Increased precipitation and decreased agricultural land use during the period 1951 through 2011 increased recharge by approximately 5 percent. Although all Ozark streams have losing, neutral, and gaining sections, they are dominantly gaining and are a net sink for groundwater with nearly 90 percent of groundwater recharge returned to springs and streams. Groundwater pumping is a small but important loss of water in the Ozark system hydrologic budget; water-level declines and local cones of depression have been observed around pumping centers and strong concerns exist over potential effects on stream and spring flow. Data indicate that societal needs for freshwater resources in the Ozark Plateaus will continue to increase and will do so in the context of changing climate and hydrology. Groundwater will continue to be an important part of supporting these societal needs and also local ecosystems. The unique character and hydrogeologic variability across the Ozark system will control how the system responds to future stress. Groundwater of the Ozark system in the northern study area is more dynamic, has greater storage and larger flux, and has greater potential for further development than in the part of the study area south of the Arkansas-Missouri border. Further south in Arkansas, a line exists, roughly defined as 5 miles south of the Springfield Plateau-Boston Mountains boundary, beyond which further extensive municipal or commercial development appears unlikely under current economic and resource-need conditions. A small part of the Ozark system groundwater budget is currently drafted for use, leaving an apparently large component available for further development and use—particularly in the northern Springfield Plateau and Salem Plateau; however, the effects of increased pumping on groundwater’s role in maintaining ecosystems and ecosystem services are not quantitatively well understood, and the close relation between groundwater and surface water highlights the importance of further quantitative assessment.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS1965

Description and analysis of the geohydrologic system in western Pinal County, Arizona

Western Pinal County is between Phoenix and Tucson in the Basin and Range physiographic province of southern Arizona and consists of about 2,000 square miles of valley floor with low relief surrounded by mountains. It is the second largest agricultural area in the State, and about 25 percent of the ground water pumped in the State is from this area. The study area has been divided into four parts. Three of these--the Casa Grande-Florence area, the Eloy area, and the Stanfield-Maricopa area--are in the lower Santa Cruz basin; the fourth--the Gila River area--is a long narrow strip along the Gila River from the Ashurst-Hayden Dam to the confluence of the Gila and Santa Cruz Rivers. The project was undertaken to provide a better understanding of the ground-water supply in relation to the present and potential water use in this area of extensive ground-water development. The arid climate of western Pinal County--combining high temperatures and low humidity--causes most of the precipitation to be returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration, which leaves only a very small part for recharge to the ground-water reservoir. The computed potential evapotranspiration--44. 97 inches--is five times greater than the average precipitation. In general, the subsurface materials in western Pinal County are unconsolidated alluvial deposits underlain by consolidated alluvium and crystalline rocks and bounded by mountains consisting of crystalline and minor sedimentary rocks. The crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the mountains are not known to be water bearing in western Pinal County. The impermeable rocks underlying the basin are called the hydrologic bedrock unit in this report. Although the unit may consist of several different rock types, the distinction between them is relatively unimportant in this study because none of them yield appreciable amounts of water. The lower Santa Cruz basin in western Pinal County is divided into two sections by a buried ridge of the hydrologic bedrock unit, referred to in this report as the Casa Grande ridge. The ridge trends in a north-south direction from the Sacaton to the Silver Reef Mountains. The unconsolidated deposits constitute the main storage reservoir for ground water in western Pins/ County. The deposits are divided into four units---the local gravel unit, the lower sand and gravel unit, the silt and clay unit, and the upper sand and gravel unit--all of which are major water-yielding units except the silt and clay unit. The local gravel unit, which is present only in the western section of the lower Santa Cruz basin, ranges in thickness from 0 to nearly 1,000 feet and is generally a productive aquifer. The lower sand and gravel unit, Which is a heterogeneous mixture of sand, gravel, and clay, ranges in thickness from 0 to about 500 feet. Where the lower sand and gravel unit is overlain by the silt and clay unit, it generally contains water under artesian conditions; where it is not overlain by the silt and clay unit, it is indistinguishable from the upper sand and gravel unit, and the water is under water-table conditions. The silt and clay unit is the least permeable deposit of the unconsolidated alluvium, and ranges in thickness from 0 to about 2, 000 feet. Generally it is less productive than the other units of the unconsolidated alluvium, although it yields moderate amounts of water from numerous thin stringers and lenses of highly permeable sand and gravel. The upper sand and gravel unit is at the land surface in most of the area; it ranges in thickness from less than 50 to about 600 feet. The unit has the highest average permeability of all the unconsolidated alluvial units; however, the permeability of the unit varies vertically and laterally, which results in a wide range of well yields. As of 1964, the static water levels in most wells in the basin were still in the upper sand and gravel unit. However, the unit is being dewatered in most of the basin, and water levels in

Open-File Report↗

USGS1977

Reconnaissance of ground-water resources in the Mountain Home plateau area, southwest Idaho

The Mountain Home plateau area occupies approximately 1,220 square miles of the western Snake River Plain in southwestern Idaho. About 40,000 acres are presently (1977) irrigated with ground water, about 30,000 acres with surface water. An estimated 450,000 acres are potentially irrigable, if water is available. Development of ground-water re- sources has caused water-level declines in several places. Largest declines are south of Mountain Home, where water levels dropped more than 20 feet in the last 9 years. Ground water in the area occurs primarily under water-table conditions. Perched-water zones are present in several locations. The most productive aquifer in the eastern part of the plateau is basalt of the Bureau Formation of the Idaho Group. In the western part, the most productive aquifers are sand and gravel of the older terrace gravel lithologic unit and the Idaho Group. Recharge to the ground-water system is water from the Boise River drainage basin, precipitation on the plateau and adjacent mountains, and leakage from irrigation structures. Ground-water movement is generally south or southwest. Natural ground-water discharge from the plateau is about 18,000 acre-feet annually. The chemical composition of the ground water generally reflects water characteristics in the area of the source of recharge and, for the most part, is good. Deuterium and oxygen-18 isotope analyses suggest that the water at the lower end of the ground-water flow system underlying the plateau was recharged a long time ago, although climatic conditions then were similar to current conditions in the Boise River basin. Additional large-scale ground-water development will probably result in economically prohibitive pumping lifts, which also would consume excessive amounts of energy. Therefore, large-scale new agricultural development would depend heavily on the availability of surface water. However, one or several deep test holes, in selected places, could help answer some questions about the occurrence of ground water and perhaps encourage further exploration for untapped deep artesian aquifers. The occurrence of perched-water zones beneath lands irrigated by surface water suggests that more zones of this type could develop if water is imported into the area to irrigate additional lands, and if the efficiency of the present distribution systems remains unchanged.

Idaho↗

USGS2016

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in extent and intensity in the western basin of Lake Erie. The cyanobacteria Microcystis produces toxins that pose serious threats to animal and human health, resulting in beach closures and impaired water supplies, and have even forced a “do not drink” advisory for the City of Toledo water system for several days in the summer of 2014. The main driver of Lake Erie HABs is elevated phosphorus loading from watersheds draining to the western basin, particularly from the Maumee River watershed (Obenour et al. 2014). Through the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA), the U.S. and Canadian governments agreed to revise Lake Erie phosphorus loading targets to decrease HAB severity below levels representing a hazard to ecosystem and human health. New targets limit March-July loadings from the Maumee River to 186 metric tonnes of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and 860 metric tonnes of total phosphorus (TP) – a 40% reduction from 2008 loads (GLWQA 2016). The Great Lakes region must now determine what policy options are most effective and feasible for meeting those targets. While all sources are important, our focus is on agriculture because it overwhelms other sources. In a conservative ballpark estimate we found that 85% of the Maumee River’s load to Lake Erie comes from farm fertilizers and manures, even though this is only 10% of farmland fertilizer applications (Figure 1). Load targets will not be met without reductions from agriculture. Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2015

Land use structures fish assemblages in reservoirs of the Tennessee River

Inputs of nutrients, sediments and detritus from catchments can promote selected components of reservoir fish assemblages, while hindering others. However, investigations linking these catchment subsidies to fish assemblages have generally focussed on one or a handful of species. Considering this paucity of community-level awareness, we sought to explore the association between land use and fish assemblage composition in reservoirs. To this end, we compared fish assemblages in reservoirs of two sub-basins of the Tennessee River representing differing intensities of agricultural development, and hypothesised that fish assemblage structure indicated by species percentage composition would differ among reservoirs in the two sub-basins. Using multivariate statistical analysis, we documented inter-basin differences in land use, reservoir productivity and fish assemblages, but no differences in reservoir morphometry or water regime. Basins were separated along a gradient of forested and non-forested catchment land cover, which was directly related to total nitrogen, total phosphorous and chlorophyll- a concentrations. Considering the extensive body of knowledge linking land use to aquatic systems, it is reasonable to postulate a hierarchical model in which productivity has direct links to terrestrial inputs, and fish assemblages have direct links to both land use and productivity. We observed a shift from an invertivore-based fish assemblage in forested catchments to a detritivore-based fish assemblage in agricultural catchments that may be a widespread pattern among reservoirs and other aquatic ecosystems.

Tennessee River↗