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USGS2025

Evaluating the performance of multiple precipitation datasets over the transboundary Ili River Basin between China and Kazakhstan

The Ili River Basin is characterized by complex topography and diverse climatic zones with limited in situ observations. This study evaluates the performance of six widely used precipitation datasets, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data), ERA5_Land (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ECMWF Reanalysis 5_Land), GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre), IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM), PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), and TerraClimate, against ground-based data from 2001 to 2023. The evaluation is conducted across multiple spatial scales and temporal resolutions. At the basin scale, most datasets exhibit strong correlations with in situ observations across all temporal scales (r > 0.7), except for PERSIANN, which demonstrates a relatively weaker performance during summer and winter (r < 0.6). All datasets except ERA5_ Land show low annual and monthly bias (<5%), although larger errors are observed during summer, particularly for IMERG and PERSIANN. Dataset performance generally declines with increasing elevation. Basin-wide gridded evaluations reveal distinct spatial variations across all elevation zones, with CHIRPS showing the strongest ability to capture orographic precipitation gradients throughout the basin. All datasets correctly identified 2008 as a drought year and 2016 as a wet year, even though the magnitude and spatial resolution of the anomalies varied among them. These findings highlight the importance of selecting precipitation datasets that are suited to the complex topographic and climatic characteristics of transboundary basins. Our study provides valuable insights for improving hydrological modeling and can be used for water sustainability and flood–drought mitigation support activities in the Ili River Basin.

Ili River Basin↗

USGS2025

Contribution of traffic emissions to PM2.5 concentrations at bus stops in Denver, Colorado

Individuals are routinely exposed to traffic-related air pollution on their commutes, which has significant health impacts. Mitigating exposure to traffic-related pollution is a key urban sustainability concern. In Denver, Colorado, low-income Americans are more likely to rely on buses and spend time waiting at bus stops. Evaluating the contribution of traffic emissions at bus stops can provide important information on risks experienced by these populations. We measured PM 2.5 constituents at eight bus stops and one background reference site in Denver, in the summer of 2023. Source profiles, including gasoline emissions from traffic, were estimated using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis of PM 2.5 constituents collected at a Chemical Speciation Network site in our study region. The contributions of the different sources at each bus stop were estimated by regressing the vector of species concentrations at each site (dependent variable) on the source-profile matrix from the PMF analysis (independent variables). Traffic-related emissions (~2.5–6.6 μg/m 3 ) and secondary organics (~3–5 μg/m 3 ) contributed to PM 2.5 at the bus stops in our dataset. The highest traffic-related emissions-derived PM 2.5 concentrations were observed at bus stops near local sources: a gas station and a car wash. The contribution of traffic-related emissions was lower at the background site (~1 μg/m 3 ).

Colorado↗

USGS2017

Remote sensing for wetland mapping and historical change detection at the Nisqually River Delta

Coastal wetlands are important ecosystems for carbon storage and coastal resilience to climate change and sea-level rise. As such, changes in wetland habitat types can also impact ecosystem functions. Our goal was to quantify historical vegetation change within the Nisqually River watershed relevant to carbon storage, wildlife habitat, and wetland sustainability, and identify watershed-scale anthropogenic and hydrodynamic drivers of these changes. To achieve this, we produced time-series classifications of habitat, photosynthetic pathway functional types and species in the Nisqually River Delta for the years 1957, 1980, and 2015. Using an object-oriented approach, we performed a hierarchical classification on historical and current imagery to identify change within the watershed and wetland ecosystems. We found a 188.4 ha (79%) increase in emergent marsh wetland within the Nisqually River Delta between 1957 and 2015 as a result of restoration efforts that occurred in several phases through 2009. Despite these wetland gains, a total of 83.1 ha (35%) of marsh was lost between 1957 and 2015, particularly in areas near the Nisqually River mouth due to erosion and shifting river channels, resulting in a net wetland gain of 105.4 ha (44%). We found the trajectory of wetland recovery coincided with previous studies, demonstrating the role of remote sensing for historical wetland change detection as well as future coastal wetland monitoring.

Washington↗

USGS2022

Salinification of coastal wetlands and freshwater management to support resilience

Climates are rapidly changing in wetland ecosystems around the world and historical land-use change is not always given enough consideration in climate adaptation discussions. Historical changes to hydrology and other key environments can exacerbate vegetation stress; e.g., recent drought and flood episodes are likely more extreme because of climate change. The contributions of global and regional changes that affect groundwater and surface water availability all need consideration in conservation planning including sea-level rise, coastal subsidence and compaction, fluid extraction, and floodplain reengineering. Where subsidence is not too extreme, healthy coastal vegetation often can keep ahead of sea-level rise by accreting elevation through sedimentary and/or biogenic processes. Better water conservation and minimum water delivery during drought may support foundational species and avoid wetland collapse. Local approaches have been developed to rewet inland floodplains decades after their reengineering for agricultural and urban development to support biodiversity in salinified coastal wetlands. The purpose of this paper is to describe inland wetland remediation techniques that may also be useful to increase freshwater delivery to coastal wetlands experiencing salinification. While some salinified coastal ecosystems may transition in the future, attempts can be made to remediate salinification related to historical land use in support of wetland conservation, health, and sustainability.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗

USGS1998

Flooding and forest succession in a modified stretch along the Upper Mississippi River

This research examines the effect of a rare flood on floodplain forest regeneration in a 102-km stretch of the Mississippi River beginning 21 km above the mouth of the Ohio River. The river has been restricted by levees and navigation structures and subjected to sediment dredging to maintain a stable navigation channel. Because the bank erosion–accretion process has been slowed or eliminated, cottonwood ( Populus spp.) and willow ( Salix spp . ) communities regenerate poorly in the modified river environment. An unusually large flood in 1993 destroyed the entire ground vegetation layer, killing 77.2% of the saplings and 32.2% of the trees. The flood created an alternative mechanism for cottonwood and willow to regenerate under canopy openings, enabling the community type composition of the present-day forest to be sustained for the next 50 years. Over time, however, the forest will likely exhibit considerable compositional fluctuation.

Mississippi River↗

USGS2014

Suspended particulate layers and internal waves over the southern Monterey Bay continental shelf: an important control on shelf mud belts?

Physical and optical measurements taken over the mud belt on the southern continental shelf of Monterey Bay, California documented the frequent occurrence of suspended particulate matter features, the majority of which were detached from the seafloor, centered 9–33 m above the bed. In fall 2011, an automated profiling mooring and fixed instrumentation, including a thermistor chain and upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profiler, were deployed at 70 m depth for 5 weeks, and from 12 to 16 October a long-range autonomous underwater vehicle performed across-shelf transects. Individual SPM events were uncorrelated with local bed shear stress caused by surface waves and bottom currents. Nearly half of all observed SPM layers occurred during 1 week of the study, 9–16 October 2011, and were advected past the fixed profiling mooring by the onshore phase of semidiurnal internal tide bottom currents. At the start of the 9–16 October period, we observed intense near-bed vertical velocities capable of lifting particulates into the middle of the water column. This “updraft” event appears to have been associated with nonlinear adjustment of high-amplitude internal tides over the mid and outer shelf. These findings suggest that nonlinear internal tidal motions can erode material over the outer shelf and that, once suspended, this SPM can then be transported shoreward to the middle and shallow sections of the mud belt. This represents a fundamental broadening of our understanding of how shelf mud belts may be built up and sustained.

California↗

USGS2014

Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2015

Glaciological and marine geological controls on terminus dynamics of Hubbard Glacier, southeast Alaska

Hubbard Glacier, located in southeast Alaska, is the world's largest non-polar tidewater glacier. It has been steadily advancing since it was first mapped in 1895; occasionally, the advance creates an ice or sediment dam that blocks a tributary fjord (Russell Fiord). The sustained advance raises the probability of long-term closure in the near-future, which will strongly impact the ecosystem of Russell Fiord and the nearby community of Yakutat. Here, we examine a 43-year record of flow speeds and terminus position to understand the large-scale dynamics of Hubbard Glacier. Our long-term record shows that the rate of terminus advance has increased slightly since 1895, with the exception of a slowed advance between approximately 1972 and 1984. The short-lived closure events in 1986 and 2002 were not initiated by perturbations in ice velocity or environmental forcings, but were likely due to fluctuations in sedimentation patterns at the terminus. This study points to the significance of a coupled system where short-term velocity fluctuations and morainal shoal development control tidewater glacier terminus position.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Quantitative attribution of major driving forces on soil organic carbon dynamics

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage plays a major role in the global carbon cycle and is affected by many factors including land use/management changes (e.g., biofuel production-oriented changes). However, the contributions of various factors to SOC changes are not well understood and quantified. This study was designed to investigate the impacts of changing farming practices, initial SOC levels, and biological enhancement of grain production on SOC dynamics and to attribute the relative contributions of major driving forces (CO 2 enrichment and farming practices) using a fractional factorial modeling design. The case study at a crop site in Iowa in the United States demonstrated that the traditional corn-soybean (CS) rotation could still accumulate SOC over this century (from 4.2 to 6.8 kg C/m 2 ) under the current condition; whereas the continuous-corn (CC) system might have a higher SOC sequestration potential than CS. In either case, however, residue removal could reduce the sink potential substantially. Long-term simulation results also suggested that the equilibrium SOC level may vary greatly (∼5.7 to ∼11 kg C/m 2 ) depending on cropping systems and management practices, and projected growth enhancement could make the magnitudes higher (∼7.8 to ∼13 kg C/m 2 ). Importantly, the factorial design analysis indicated that residue management had the most significant impact (contributing 49.4%) on SOC changes, followed by CO 2 Enrichment (37%), Tillage (6.2%), the combination of CO 2 Enrichment-Residue removal (5.8%), and Fertilization (1.6%). In brief, this study is valuable for understanding the major forces driving SOC dynamics of agroecosystems and informative for decision-makers when seeking the enhancement of SOC sequestration potential and sustainability of biofuel production, especially in the Corn Belt region of the United States.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems↗

USGS2016

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2015

Source mechanism of small long-period events at Mount St. Helens in July 2005 using template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion

Long-period (LP, 0.5-5 Hz) seismicity, observed at volcanoes worldwide, is a recognized signature of unrest and eruption. Cyclic LP “drumbeating” was the characteristic seismicity accompanying the sustained dome-building phase of the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH), WA. However, together with the LP drumbeating was a near-continuous, randomly occurring series of tiny LP seismic events (LP “subevents”), which may hold important additional information on the mechanism of seismogenesis at restless volcanoes. We employ template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion to image the source mechanism of one multiplet of these LP subevents at MSH in July 2005. The signal-to-noise ratios of the individual events are too low to produce reliable waveform-inversion results, but the events are repetitive and can be stacked. We apply network-based template matching to 8 days of continuous velocity waveform data from 29 June to 7 July 2005 using a master event to detect 822 network triggers. We stack waveforms for 359 high-quality triggers at each station and component, using a combination of linear and phase-weighted stacking to produce clean stacks for use in waveform inversion. The derived source mechanism pointsto the volumetric oscillation (~10 m 3 ) of a subhorizontal crack located at shallow depth (~30 m) in an area to the south of Crater Glacier in the southern portion of the breached MSH crater. A possible excitation mechanism is the sudden condensation of metastable steam from a shallow pressurized hydrothermal system as it encounters cool meteoric water in the outer parts of the edifice, perhaps supplied from snow melt.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO 2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

California↗

USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2016

Variation of energy and carbon fluxes from a restored temperate freshwater wetland and implications for carbon market verification protocols

Temperate freshwater wetlands are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems, stimulating interest in using restored wetlands as biological carbon sequestration projects for greenhouse gas reduction programs. In this study, we used the eddy covariance technique to measure surface energy carbon fluxes from a constructed, impounded freshwater wetland during two annual periods that were 8 years apart: 2002–2003 and 2010–2011. During 2010–2011, we measured methane (CH 4 ) fluxes to quantify the annual atmospheric carbon mass balance and its concomitant influence on global warming potential (GWP). Peak growing season fluxes of latent heat and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were greater in 2002–2003 compared to 2010–2011. In 2002, the daily net ecosystem exchange reached as low as −10.6 g C m −2  d −1 , which was greater than 3 times the magnitude observed in 2010 (−2.9 g C m −2  d −1 ). CH 4 fluxes during 2010–2011 were positive throughout the year and followed a strong seasonal pattern, ranging from 38.1 mg C m −2  d −1 in the winter to 375.9 mg C m −2  d −1 during the summer. The results of this study suggest that the wetland had reduced gross ecosystem productivity in 2010–2011, likely due to the increase in dead plant biomass (standing litter) that inhibited the generation of new vegetation growth. In 2010–2011, there was a net positive GWP (675.3 g C m −2  yr −1 ), and when these values are evaluated as a sustained flux, the wetland will not reach radiative balance even after 500 years.

California↗

USGS2016

Component greenhouse gas fluxes and radiative balance from two deltaic marshes in Louisiana: Pairing chamber techniques and eddy covariance

Coastal marshes take up atmospheric CO 2 while emitting CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O. This ability to sequester carbon (C) is much greater for wetlands on a per-area basis than from most ecosystems, facilitating scientific, political, and economic interest in their value as greenhouse gas sinks. However, the greenhouse gas balance of Gulf of Mexico wetlands is particularly understudied. We describe the net ecosystem exchange (NEE c ) of CO 2 and CH 4 using eddy covariance (EC) in comparison with fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O using chambers from brackish and freshwater marshes in Louisiana, USA. From EC, we found that 182 g C m -2 y -1 was lost through NEE c from the brackish marsh. Of this, 11 g C m -2 y -1 resulted from net CH 4 emissions and the remaining 171 g C m -2 y -1 resulted from net CO 2 emissions. In contrast, -290 g C m 2 y -1 was taken up through NEE c by the freshwater marsh, with 47 g C m -2 y -1 emitted as CH 4 and -337 g C m -2 y -1 taken up as CO 2 . From chambers, we discovered that neither site had large fluxes of N 2 O. Sustained-flux greenhouse gas accounting metrics indicated that both marshes had a positive (warming) radiative balance, with the brackish marsh having a substantially greater warming effect than the freshwater marsh. That net respiratory emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 as estimated through chamber techniques were 2-4 times different from emissions estimated through EC requires additional understanding of the artifacts created by different spatial and temporal sampling footprints between techniques.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of ﬂexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identiﬁed as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workﬂows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2015

Identifying multiple timescale rainfall controls on Mojave Desert ecohydrology using an integrated data and modeling approach for Larrea tridentata

The perennial shrub Larrea tridentata is widely successful in North American warm deserts but is also susceptible to climatic perturbations. Understanding its response to rainfall variability requires consideration of multiple timescales. We examine intra-annual to multi-year relationships using model simulations of soil moisture and vegetation growth over 50 years in the Mojave National Preserve in southeastern California (USA). Ecohydrological model parameters are conditioned on field and remote sensing data using an ensemble Kalman filter. Although no specific periodicities were detected in the rainfall record, simulated leaf-area-index exhibits multi-year dynamics that are driven by multi-year (&sim;3-years) rains, but with up to a 1-year delay in peak response. Within a multi-year period, Larrea tridentata is more sensitive to winter rains than summer. In the most active part of the root zone (above &sim;80 cm), >1-year average soil moisture drives vegetation growth, but monthly average soil moisture is controlled by root uptake. Moisture inputs reach the lower part of the root zone (below &sim;80 cm) infrequently, but once there they can persist over a year to help sustain plant growth. Parameter estimates highlight efficient plant physiological properties facilitating persistent growth and high soil hydraulic conductivity allowing deep soil moisture stores. We show that soil moisture as an ecological indicator is complicated by bidirectional interactions with vegetation that depend on timescale and depth. Under changing climate, Larrea tridentata will likely be relatively resilient to shorter-term moisture variability but will exhibit higher sensitivity to shifts in seasonal to multi-year moisture inputs.

California↗