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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

Tritium migration from a low-level radioactive-waste disposal site near Chicago, Illinois

This paper describes the results of a study to determine the geologic and hydrologic factors that control migration of tritium from a closed, low-level radioactive-waste disposal site. The disposal site, which operated from 1943 to mid1949, contains waste generated by research activities at the world's first nuclear reactors. Tritium has migrated horizontally at least 1,300 feet northward in glacial drift and more than 650 feet in the underlying dolomite. Thin, gently sloping sand layers in an otherwise clayey glacial drift are major conduits for ground-water flow and tritium migration in a perched zone beneath the disposal site. Tritium concentrations in the drift beneath the disposal site exceed 100,000 nanocuries per liter. Regional horizontal joints in the dolomite are enlarged by solution and are the major conduits for ground-water flow and tritium migration in the dolomite. A weathered zone at the top of the dolomite also is a pathway for tritium migration. The maximum measured tritium concentration in the dolomite is 29.4 nanocuries per liter. Fluctuations of tritium concentration in the dolomite are the result of dilution by seasonal recharge from the drift.

Water Supply Paper↗

The new Landsat 8 potential for remote sensing of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM)

Due to a combination of factors, such as a new coastal/aerosol band and improved radiometric sensitivity of the Operational Land Imager aboard Landsat 8, the atmospherically-corrected Surface Reflectance product for Landsat data, and the growing availability of corrected fDOM data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations, moderate-resolution remote sensing of fDOM may now be achievable. This paper explores the background of previous efforts and shows preliminary examples of the remote sensing and data relationships between corrected fDOM and Landsat 8 reflectance values. Although preliminary results before and after Hurricane Sandy are encouraging, more research is needed to explore the full potential of Landsat 8 to continuously map fDOM in a number of water profiles.

Marine Pollution Bulletin↗

Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications

Habitat destruction and infectious disease are dual threats to nature and people. The potential to simultaneously advance conservation and human health has attracted considerable scientific and popular interest; in particular, many authors have justified conservation action by pointing out potential public health benefits . One major focus of this debate—that biodiversity conservation often decreases infectious disease transmission via the dilution effect—remains contentious. Studies that test for a dilution effect often find a negative association between a diversity metric and a disease risk metric, but how such associations should inform conservation policy remains unclear for several reasons. For one, diversity and infection risk have many definitions, making it possible to identify measures that conform to expectations. Furthermore, the premise that habitat destruction consistently reduces biodiversity is in question, and disturbance or conservation can affect disease in many ways other than through biodiversity change. To date, few studies have examined the broader set of mechanisms by which anthropogenic disturbance or conservation might increase or decrease infectious disease risk to human populations. Due to interconnections between biodiversity change, economics and human behaviour, moving from ecological theory to policy action requires understanding how social and economic factors affect conservation. This Theme Issue arose from a meeting aimed at synthesizing current theory and data on ‘biodiversity, conservation and infectious disease’ (4–6 May 2015). Ecologists, evolutionary biologists, economists, epidemiologists, veterinary scientists, public health professionals, and conservation biologists from around the world discussed the latest research on the ecological and socio-economic links between conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease, and the open questions and controversies in these areas. By combining ecological understanding with insights from the social and economic sciences, the papers in this Theme Issue address the complex relationships, patterns and ecological mechanisms that influence conservation, infectious disease, and the policy options available to protect nature and human health.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

Monograph for using paleoflood data in Water Resources Applications

The Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) Technical Committee on Surface Water Hydrology is sponsoring a Task Committee on Paleoflood Hydrology to prepare a monograph entitled, "Use of Paleoflood and Historical Data in Water Resources Applications." This paper introduces the subject of paleoflood hydrology and discusses the topics, which are expected to be included in the monograph. The procedure for preparing and reviewing the monograph will also be discussed. The paleoflood hydrology monograph will include a discussion of types of hydrologic and paleoflood data, paleostage indicators, flood chronology, modeling methods, interpretation issues, water resources applications and case studies, and research needs. Paleoflood data collection and analysis techniques will be presented, and various applications in water-resources investigations will be provided. An overview of several flood frequency analysis approaches, which consider historical and paleoflood data along with systematic streamflow records, will be presented. The monograph is scheduled for completion and publication in 2001. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Conference Paper↗

The Grouse & Grazing Project: Effects of cattle grazing on demographic traits of greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) were once widespread within sagebrush -grassland ecosystems of western North America, but populations have declined since the mid-1960s. Though sage-grouse were not listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), when examined in 2015, they remain a species of interest and concern. Roughly half of the sage-grouse’s remaining habitat is on federal land, most of it managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Livestock grazing is the most extensive land use within sage-grouse habitat and the effects of livestock grazing on sage-grouse are often debated. The extensive decade-long research project summarized in this report was initiated to provide rigorous experimental research to inform the debate regarding the relationship between livestock grazing and sage-grouse. In 2012, the Idaho Grouse & Grazing Project was started with several partners including the University of Idaho, BLM, Idaho Department of Fish and Game (IDFG), and other partners to evaluate the effects of cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates. Many additional supporters have provided resources to this research effort including the Public Lands Council, Idaho Cattle Association, Idaho Governor’s Office of Species Conservation, Western Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, USFS, and numerous grazing associations and ranchers in Idaho. This 10-year research project was a scientifically rigorous and replicated experiment, occurring across five study sites in Idaho. This document is intended to provide a summary of the findings of this unprecedented study. Annual reports are available on the project’s website: https://idahogrousegrazing.org and scientific papers are being prepared and submitted to journals. The project focused on the influence of spring cattle grazing on sage-grouse vital rates across five study sites in Idaho including 21 BLM grazing pastures. From 2014-2023, we captured 1,343 grouse, documented the fate of 1,285 nests, and tracked 399 broods. Vegetation was characterized at 4,777 plots and grazing utilization levels were recorded at >30,000 locations. Because insects are an important food source for sage-grouse hens and their chicks, insect biomass and diversity were also examined in this study. We collected arthropods in 12,151 pitfall samples and 6,217 sweep-net samples across 786 plots within our five study sites. At each study site, three or four grazing treatments were implemented after two years of pre-treatment field investigations. These controlled cattle grazing treatments included spring-grazing in even years, spring-grazing in odd years, spring-and-fall grazing in alternating years, and a no grazing (or rested) control. Once grazing treatments were implemented at a study site, we measured sage-grouse demographic traits for 4-8 years post-treatment. Stocking rate (grazing intensity) was assessed across pastures each year and was influenced by vegetation communities, topography, and water sources. Grazed pastures exhibited lower grass cover and height compared to the no grazing pastures, and the extent of this difference varied based on annual precipitation levels. Rested pastures maintained higher grass cover and grass height, but the differences in habitat structure did not consistently translate to differences in sage-grouse demographic traits. Apparent nesting success varied annually and by site, ranging from 24% to 44% over the study period. Like some other studies, results from this research show that successful (i.e., hatched) sage-grouse nests have taller grass heights than failed nests. The average grass height surrounding successful nests in grazed pastures was shorter than that surrounding successful nests in non-grazed (i.e., rested) pastures. It is well documented that grazing reduces grass height, and these observations have led to widely held assumptions that livestock grazing reduces grass height which negatively affects sage-grouse nesting habitat. At the pasture scale, this study has found that sage-grouse nesting success is no greater in pastures that were rested for 4-8 years than those currently or recently grazed. This study gives no indication that removing cattle from pastures affected nesting success. We found some evidence that nest density varied among the grazing treatments, but we did not see compelling evidence of increases in density of nesting hens following cessation of grazing in the no grazing treatments. Brood survival varied by site and year but showed no strong effect of grazing treatment. Climatic conditions, particularly drought in 2021, had a greater effect on brood survival than grazing metrics. We also found no differences in hen survival among the grazing treatments. Results of this study suggest that hens nesting in spring and fall grazed pastures had similar or even slightly higher brood survival than hens in the rested pastures or the spring grazed pastures. Arthropod biomass and species diversity varied among our study sites and the differences between grazed and rested pastures also varied among study sites. Average biomass and diversity of arthropods was higher in the spring grazed pastures on two of three sites examined but higher in the rested pastures on the other site examined. Some taxa of arthropods were more abundant in grazed pastures while other taxa were more abundant in rested pastures. For example, Carabidae (Ground Beetles) and Formicidae (Ants) had higher biomass in grazed pastures, while Tenebrionidae (Darkling Beetles) and Acrididae (Grasshoppers) had higher biomass in non-grazed pastures. Results indicate that grazing effects on arthropod biomass and arthropod diversity are study site-dependent, suggesting a need to better quantify the most important prey taxa for sage-grouse chicks and to better control for other factors that influence arthropod abundance. Based on results of this research, livestock grazing, when properly managed, does not appear to negatively impact sage-grouse nest survival or brood success. This study provides critical insights for land managers balancing livestock production with sage-grouse conservation, supporting adaptive grazing strategies that maintain both economic and ecological objectives.

Idaho↗

Ferromanganese crust resources in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Ferromanganese crusts on raised areas of the ocean floor have joined abyssal manganese nodules and hydrothermal sulfides as potential marine resources. Significant volumes of cobalt-rich (about 1% Co) crusts have been identified to date within the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Central Pacific: in the NW Hawaiian Ridge and Seamount region and in the seamounts in the Johnston Island and Palmyra Island regions. Large volumes of lower grade crusts, slabs, and nodules are also present in shallow ( greater than 1000 m) waters on the Blake plateau, off Florida-South Carolina in the Atlantic Ocean. Data on ferromanganese crusts have been increased by recent German and USGS cruises, but are still sparse, and other regions having crust potential are under current investigation. The authors discuss economic potentials for cobalt-rich crusts in the Central Pacific and Western North Atlantic oceans, with special reference to US EEZ areas. Additional research is needed before more quantitative resource estimates can be made.

Conference Paper↗

US Costal Research Program: Fostering academic research

The US Coastal Research Program (USCRP) was founded in 2016 through a grassroots initiative of scientists, researchers, and practitioners to address nearshore coastal research priorities of greatest relevance to coastal communities and build a skilled US coastal workforce. The USCRP supports academic research to address challenges identified through thematic workshops and pair academic researchers with practitioners to ensure research findings and tools address relevant coastal management challenges. Through these partnerships, the USCRP addresses societally-relevant needs of coastal communities and nurtures the future U.S. coastal workforce. To date, the USCRP has conducted two thematic workshops and funded 13 academic research studies. Herein we provide an overview of the desired characteristics for USCRP’s academic research, summarize accomplishments from studies responding to challenges identified in the 2016 workshop on Dune Management, and provide an overview of ongoing research studies stemming from the 2018 workshop on Storm Processes and Impacts.

Conference Paper↗

Refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) Broadband Ground Motion Simulation Method

This brief article describes refinements to the Graves and Pitarka (2010) broadband ground motion simulation methodology (GP2010 hereafter) that have been implemented in version 14.3 of the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP). The updated version of our method on the current SCEC BBP is referred to as GP14.3. Our simulation technique is a hybrid approach that combines low-­‐frequency and high-­‐frequency motions computed with different methods into a single broadband response. The separate low-­‐ and high-­‐frequency components have traditionally been called “deterministic” and “stochastic”, respectively; however, this nomenclature is an oversimplification. In reality, the low-­‐frequency approach includes many stochastic elements, and likewise, the high-­‐frequency approach includes many deterministic elements (e.g., Pulido and Kubo, 2004; Hartzell et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2006; Frankel, 2009; Graves and Pitarka, 2010; Mai et al., 2010). While the traditional terminology will likely remain in use by the broader modeling community, in this paper we will refer to these using the generic terminology “low-­‐frequency” and “high-­‐ frequency” approaches. Furthermore, one of the primary goals in refining our methodology is to provide a smoother and more consistent transition between the low-­‐ and high-­‐ frequency calculations, with the ultimate objective being the development of a single unified modeling approach that can be applied over a broad frequency band. GP2010 was validated by modeling recorded strong motions from four California earthquakes. While the method performed well overall, several issues were identified including the tendency to over-­‐predict the level of longer period (2-­‐5 sec) motions and the effects of rupture directivity. The refinements incorporated in GP14.3 are aimed at addressing these issues with application to the simulation of earthquakes in Western US (WUS). These refinements include the addition of a deep weak zone (details in following section) to the rupture characterization and allowing perturbations in the correlation of rise time and rupture speed with the specified slip distribution. Additionally, we have extended the parameterization of GP14.3 so that it is also applicable for simulating Eastern North America (ENA) earthquakes. This work has been guided by the comprehensive set of validation studies described in Goulet and Abrahamson (2014) and Dreger et al. (2014). The GP14.3 method shows improved performance relative to GP2010, and we direct the interested reader to Dreger et al. (2014) for a detailed assessment of the current methodology. In this paper, we concentrate on describing the modifications in more detail, and also discussing additional refinements that are currently being developed.

California↗

U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MARINE-MINERALS RESEARCH.

Summary form only given. The US Exclusive Economic Zone is an area approximately one and two-thirds the size of the land area of the United States. In this frontier area, US Geological Survey (USGS) research in marine minerals is aimed at three objectives: (1) defining geologic settings of potential mineral resources; (2) understanding the processes by which seafloor nonliving resources form; and (3) estimating the resource potential. Potential resources of primary interest are cobalt-rich manganese seafloor crusts, polymetallic sulfides in hydrothermal vent areas on the seafloor, and heavy-mineral placer deposits. Research activities include studies of manganese-crust samples from oceanographic-institution archives and a USGS research cruise through the central and southern Pacific. Preliminary results confirm that cobalt is concentrated by as much as 2. 5% in the manganese crusts at water depths of 1000-2600 m; further research on the precipitation processes and patterns of crust formation will be needed to understand the origin, occurrence patterns, and resource potential of these crusts. Research cruises have revealed a zone of polymetallic sulfide vent deposits a few hundred meters long in the Juan de Fuca spreading center.

Conference Paper↗

Dietary nitrate and cardiovascular health

Sep tember 17, 2014, Bethesda, Maryland The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened this workshop to discuss the results of recent research on the effects of inorganic nitrate and nitrite on the cardiovascular system, possible long term effects of these compounds in the diet and drinking water, and future research needs including population-wide effects examined through epidemiological studies.

Conference Paper↗

Federal Great Lakes fishery research objectives, priorities, and projects

Fishery productivity of the Great Lakes has declined drastically since settlement of the area. Premium quality fishes of the Great Lakes such as whitefish, lake trout, and walleyes have been replaced by less desired species. This change is attributed to selective overfishing, pollution, and the extreme instability of fish populations. Sea lamprey predation is still a vexing problem but progress is being made in controlling this parasite. The federal fishery research program with headquarters in Ann Arbor, Michigan, has the objective of providing baseline information, needed in resource use decisions, about the fishes of the Great Lakes. Studies of the habitat requirements of fish are high priority. The program includes fish population assessments, studies of the effects of mercury and other contaminants on fish, thermal effects studies, and general investigation of the impact of engineering projects on Great Lakes fisheries. The work is closely coordinated with state and Canadian agencies through the Great Lakes Fishery Commission. Four small research vessels and four field stations are utilized with a staff of 90 and an annual budget of about $1.5 million.

Conference Paper↗

Real-time kinematic surveying at the Osage-Skiatook Petroleum Environmental Research sites, Osage County, Oklahoma

Highly accurate survey-grade Global Positioning System (GPS) technology was used at the two Osage-Skiatook petroleum environmental research sites to document the locations of observation wells, geoprobe holes, and other sampling sites of 15 research scientists. Real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS was the method used, because it is stable, fast, and accurate. Initially three survey monuments were installed one at each research site and one at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers headquarters for Skiatook Lake. The monument locations were established by static GPS surveys that occupied each of the sites for four hours. The data were submitted to the NOAA-National Geodetic Survey (NGS) Online Positioning User Service (OPUS) for processing. OPUS processes the data relative to three sites on the NGS continuously operating reference station network (CORS). CORS provides GPS carrier phase and code range measurements in support of three-dimensional positioning activities throughout the United States. OPUS enables positioning accuracies, both horizontally and vertically, that approach a few centimeters relative to the National Spatial Reference System and electronically mails the results to the sender. The usual turnaround time for a data set is 2-3 minutes, depending upon the file size. Static GPS surveys are highly accurate, but require post processing the data and longer occupation time. The RTK surveys require a GPS base station positioned over a known monument, a GPS rover, and a radio link between the base station and the rover. The radio link transmits the base station correction data to the rover. The rover combines the base station data with the rover GPS data to produce real-time coordinates. The rover must maintain lock on at least four of the same satellites that the base station is tracking. Each survey location is occupied for 3 minutes. Setup time at each location is less than a minute, if the rover maintains lock on the satellites and the radio link to the base station. Accuracy in the horizontal component is 1 centimeter (cm) plus 2 parts per million (ppm) times the baseline distance and in the vertical component is 2 cm plus 2 ppm times the baseline distance. The calculated accuracy for the initial static GPS surveys that occupied the survey monuments ranged from 1.2 to 1.4 cm for the horizontal component and 2.2 to 2.4 cm for the vertical component. Calculated accuracy for the RTK surveys at the research sites are about 2.2 to 2.4 cm for the horizontal component and 4.2 to 4.4 cm for the vertical component.

Oklahoma↗

Advancing monitoring approaches to enhance tidal Chesapeake Bay habitat assessment for submerged aquatic vegetation, water clarity, chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen

Water quality monitoring capacity has been declining for the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) at a time when information needs are growing, and data gaps exist to address critical decision-support for managers. The CBP Scientific Technical Assessment and Reporting Team is leading a Principal’s Staff Committee requested gap analyses toward understanding support needed to improve water quality monitoring and analysis programming. Advanced technologies and alternative monitoring approaches in the form of satellite-based measurements, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) algorithms for data interpretation, continuous water quality in-situ sensor arrays, and community science efforts offer a growing portfolio of valuable opportunities for expanding data collections and analysis program capacities. However, since 1985, each of these options are examples of growing opportunities to enhance water quality assessments yet has seen limited adoption into elements of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring programs. Where new technologies have been adopted (e.g., shallow water continuous water quality monitoring), such temporally rich data streams have supported Bay health insights yet had limited use in regulatory water quality criteria assessment. This Scientific Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) supported workshop provided the ideal forum for engaging our CBP partnership regarding the maturity of new and evolving monitoring and analysis capacities to address program information needs while appreciating limitations with adopting new tools and approaches. Improving natural resources monitoring efficiency and effectiveness will expand the scientific and technical foundations for making robust, strategic choices on decisions for CBP Partnership community-based priorities, policies, and management actions. Workshop findings and recommendations reflect progress in science, technology, and analyses addressing long-standing programmatic limitations in data collection and analysis capacities. State-of-the-science updates highlighted in the workshop span the spectrum of efforts representing improvements, successes, remaining challenges toward operationalizing protocols, and guidance toward research, or adoption and implementation by monitoring programs.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

Some results from ModEM3DMT, the freely available OSU 3D MT inversion code

At the 3DEM-5 workshop in 2013, we presented a paper entitled "ModEM: developing 3D EM inversion for the masses", outlining our then recent development of a modular system for inversion of EM geophysical data, called ModEM. As promised in that presentation, we made a version of the code that is suitable for 3D modeling and inversion of magnetotelluric data freely available for academic use shortly thereafter. There are now over 250 registered users, of ModEM3DMT from around the globe. To date at least 50 publications cite use of ModEM for 3D inversion of real MT datasets to address diverse problems in applied and basic Earth Science research at a range of scales. Here we present an overview of some of these results, focusing on studies that the authors have been involved in, and are thus most familiar to us.

Conference Paper↗

Crowd-sourced SfM: Best practices for high resolution monitoring of coastal cliffs and bluffs

Structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry is an increasingly common technique for measuring landscape change over time by deriving 3D point clouds and surface models from overlapping photographs. Traditional change detection approaches require photos that are geotagged with a differential GPS (DGPS) location, which requires expensive equipment that can limit the ability of communities and researchers to perform frequent ( i.e. daily, weekly, and/or monthly) surveys. Crowd-sourced photos can lower the barrier to entry and substantially increase the frequency of surveys, although such photos often lack accurate location information and can vary in quality. This paper presents a SfM approach for monitoring environmental change in high relief coastal environments that does not require all photos have DGPS location information and does not require field survey data. A 1.5 km section of coastal bluffs near the Elwha River Delta (Washington state) is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach. Photos of the bluff were collected with a digital SLR camera or phone camera while either on foot along the beach or from a boat as part of monitoring following removal of two large dams along the Elwha River during 2011–2013. Only 33% of photos had DGPS location information, whereas most photos had no location information or locations that were accurate to a couple of meters. All photos were processed using 3D, 4D, and fixed-floating (FF) SfM alignment methods and the resulting dense point clouds are used to compare the different alignment approaches with crowd-sourced photo sets. Results demonstrate that 4D and FF approaches are more likely to reconstruct and are more accurate than the 3D approach. While the 4D and FF have comparable accuracies, the FF approach is several orders of magnitude more efficient, as this method can leverage camera location information from relatively few photos to improve the accuracy of all aligned and derived products. Effectively utilizing crowd-sourced photos in SfM change detection can improve the frequency of surveying a landscape in a more cost-effective approach that also has potential for citizen-science engagement and communication. This is especially important for data-poor environments such as high-relief coastal cliffs and bluffs, where near-nadir imagery and LIDAR may fail to accurately capture near-vertical cliffs or bluff faces. Based on the analysis of different photo alignment and filtering approaches, we present suggested best practices for engaging citizen scientists in coastal cliff and bluff monitoring efforts through collecting photos amenable for SfM reconstruction.

Washington↗

The fate of cyanide in leach wastes at gold mines: an environmental perspective

This paper reviews the basic chemistry of cyanide, methods by which cyanide can be analyzed, and aspects of cyanide behavior that are most relevant to environmental considerations at mineral processing operations associated with gold mines. The emphasis is on research results reported since 1999 and on data gathered for a series of U.S. Geological Survey studies that began in the late 1990s. Cyanide is added to process solutions as the CN − anion, but ore leaching produces numerous other cyanide-containing and cyanide-related species in addition to the desired cyanocomplex of gold. These can include hydrogen cyanide (HCN); cyanometallic complexes of iron, copper, zinc, nickel, and many other metals; cyanate (CNO − ); and thiocyanate (SCN − ). The fate of these species in solid wastes and residual process solutions that remain once gold recovery activities are terminated and in any water that moves beyond the ore processing facility dictates the degree to which cyanide poses a risk to aquatic organisms and aquatic-dependent organisms in the local environment. Cyanide-containing and cyanide-related species are subject to attenuation mechanisms that lead to dispersal to the atmosphere, chemical transformation to other carbon and nitrogen species, or sequestration as cyanometallic precipitates or adsorbed species on mineral surfaces. Dispersal to the atmosphere and chemical transformation amount to permanent elimination of cyanide, whereas sequestration amounts to storage of cyanide in locations from which it can potentially be remobilized by infiltrating waters if conditions change. From an environmental perspective, the most significant cyanide releases from gold leach operations involve catastrophic spills of process solutions or leakage of effluent to the unsaturated or saturated zones. These release pathways are unfavorable for two important cyanide attenuation mechanisms that tend to occur naturally: dispersal of free cyanide to the atmosphere and sunlight-catalyzed dissociation of strong cyanometallic complexes, which produces free cyanide that can then disperse to the atmosphere. The widest margins of environmental safety will be achieved where mineral processing operations are designed so that time for offgassing, aeration, and sunlight exposure are maximized in the event that cyanide-bearing solutions are released inadvertently.

Applied Geochemistry↗

Finite-element modelling of physics-based hillslope hydrology, Keith Beven, and beyond

Keith Beven is a voice of reason on the intelligent use of models and the subsequent acknowledgement/assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental simula-tion. With several books and hundreds of papers, Keith’s work is widespread, well known, and highly referenced. Four of Keith’s most notable contributions are the iconic TOPMODEL (Beven and Kirkby, 1979), classic papers on macropores and preferential flow (Beven and Germann, 1982, 2013), two editions of the rainfall-runoff modelling bible (Beven, 2000a, 2012), and the selection/commentary for the first volume from the Benchmark Papers in Hydrology series (Beven, 2006b). Remarkably, the thirty-one papers in his benchmark volume, entitled Streamflow Generation Processes, are not tales of modelling wizardry but describe measurements designed to better understand the dynamics of near-surface systems (quintessential Keith). The impetus for this commentary is Keith’sPhD research (Beven, 1975), where he developed a new finite-element model and conducted concept-development simu-lations based upon the processes identified by, for example, Richards (1931), Horton (1933), Hubbert (1940), Hewlett and Hibbert (1963), and Dunne and Black (1970a,b). Readers not familiar with the different mechanisms of streamflow generation are referred to Dunne (1978).

Hydrological Processes↗

Comment on RamaRao et al. [1995] and LaVenue et al. [1995]

A method for stochastic modeling of groundwater flow systems using a combination of pilot point parameterization and conditional simulation was presented by RamaRao et. al [1995] and LaVenue et. al [1995]. (We will collectively term these two papers RLMM and term the method developed in RLMM the CS method here.) RLMM (pp. 478-479) state that the CS method is intended to provide a frequency distribution of possible alternative spatial transmissivity T distributions that (1) are statistically similar to the observed T distribution, (2) are equally likely given the calibration data, and (3) closely reproduce the measured pressures. The frequency distribution of transmissivities is then used to form frequency distribution of derived functions, such as travel times, which are summarized in the form of uncertainty measures, such as (RLMM, p. 512) "confidence (or tolerance) intervals," on the actual values, which in the case of travels times, are values that could occur sometime in the future (RLMM, p.513). Cooley [2000] analyzes the RLMM method using linearization and bootstrap theory and concludes that that the method can yield accurate uncertainty estimates but only under some limited circumstances. In this comment we use Cooley's analysis to critique the method. We also identify and discuss some statements made my by RLMM about model calibration and their methodology that appear to be misleading. It is unusual to comment on a paper so long after publication. Subsequent work has expanded the method of RLMM, and the method was used advantageously in the testing documented by Zimmerman et. al [1998], so it is clear the method has significant strengths. We go back to the 1995 papers for this comment, however, because they display most clearly the methodological difficulties with which we are concerned.

Water Resources Research↗