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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C 4 perennial grasses and C 3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C 4 grasslands and C 3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C 4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland persisted near their present northern limits throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. By contrast, key C 3 desert shrubs appeared somewhat abruptly after 5000cal.yrBP. Bioclimatic envelopes for select C 4 and C 3 species are mapped to interpret the glacial-interglacial persistence of desert grassland and the mid-to-late Holocene expansion of desert shrublands. The envelopes suggest relatively warm Pleistocene temperatures with moist summers allowed for persistence of C 4 grasses, whereas winters were probably too cold (or too wet) for C 3 desert shrubs. Contrary to climate model results, core processes associated with the North American Monsoon and moisture transport to the northern Chihuahuan Desert remained intact throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Mid-latitude effects, however, truncated midsummer (July-August) moisture transport north of 35° N. The sudden expansion of desert shrublands after 5000cal.yrBP may be a threshold response to warmer winters associated with increasing boreal winter insolation, and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.

Arizona, New Mexico, Texas↗

Population dynamics of the Cui-ui of Pyramid Lake, Nevada: A Potamodromous catostomid subject to failed reproduction

Fishes of the Truckee River basin (California and Nevada) evolved in an aquatic system that has been episodically diminished by extended drought. For potamodromous species, such as the endangered Cui-ui endemic to Pyramid Lake, Nevada, prehistoric episodic severe drought presumably led to periods of failed reproduction due to restricted access to spawning habitat. The response of the Cui-ui population to more recent failed reproduction caused by anthropogenic activity was studied to learn how to manage this species through periods of spawning disruption. Adult Cui-ui survival averaged 91% and 89% for females and males, respectively, in drought years when spawning migrations were either precluded or few fish migrated because of no or low stream flow. In each of 2 years when stream access was precluded, the adult survival was nearly 100% suggesting that Cui-ui survival is extended in the absence of a spawning migration. Survival averaged 62% and 60% for females and males, respectively, in years of spawning migrations. Strong predominant year-classes developed in the year immediately following a period of failed reproduction, indicating the species’ capacity for population rebound. Year-class predominance persisted for 6–10 years and through years of low survival associated with migration years, and this predominance is probably due, in part, to a diverse age at maturity. Contemporary water diversions from the Truckee River provided the opportunity to study the response of the Cui-ui population to years of failed reproduction. A projected drier Truckee River basin associated with global climate change will test the Cui-ui’s adaptive capacity to endure periods of reproductive failure. This study is aimed at assisting Cui-ui managers in conserving the species in this highly regulated and changing system. The study also adds insight into the prehistoric population dynamics of a potamodromous species in the arid western United States subject to wide fluctuations in annual precipitation and water availability.

California, Nevada↗

Stress gradients interact with disturbance to reveal alternative states in salt marsh: Multivariate resilience at the landscape scale

Stress gradients influence many ecosystem processes and properties, including ecosystem recovery from and resistance to disturbance. While recent analytical approaches have advanced multivariate metrics of ecosystem resilience that allow quantification of conceptual resilience models and identification of thresholds of state change, these approaches are not often translated to landscape scales. Using natural and restored salt marshes in Louisiana, USA, we quantified plant community recovery and resistance metrics along flooding stress gradients. n ‐dimensional hypervolumes of plant community biomass and structure were simulated using field data collected from disturbance‐recovery experiments. The relationships between multivariate resilience metrics and flooding stress gradients were then mapped at community‐ and landscape‐relevant scales by scaling with airborne‐derived data across the region. Greater pre‐disturbance abiotic stress decreased live belowground, but not aboveground, biomass, and ultimately led to lower post‐disturbance total recovery, recovery rates, and resistance of plant communities. Vegetated plots flooded >52% of the time transitioned to an alternative, unvegetated state after disturbance. Mapping revealed differences in spatial patterns of resilience‐ highlighting low, interior marsh edges as especially vulnerable to the combination of chronic flooding stress and acute disturbance. At the landscape scale, approximately half of the area (48%) is vulnerable to state change after pulse disturbances. Synthesis . Ultimately, we quantify the ball‐and‐cup conceptual model for a salt marsh ecosystem and its alternative state, mudflat. We find that increasing abiotic stress due to climate change diminishes ecosystem resilience, but the interaction with common episodic disturbances is necessary to reveal transitions to alternative states and quantify state change thresholds. Quantifying and mapping resilience and where alternative states may exist in this fashion improves ecologists’ ability to investigate the mechanisms of stress gradient control on emergent ecosystem properties, while providing spatially explicit resources for managing ecosystems according to their projected resilience.

Louisiana↗

Palynological composition of a Lower Cretaceous South American tropical sequence: Climatic implications and diversity comparisons with other latitudes.

Premise of the study : Reconstruction of floristic patterns during the early diversification of angiosperms is impeded by the scarce fossil record, especially in tropical latitudes. Here we collected quantitative palynological data from a stratigraphic sequence in tropical South America to provide floristic and climatic insights into such tropical environments during the Early Cretaceous. Methods : We reconstructed the floristic composition of an Aptian-Albian tropical sequence from central Colombia using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance) and used it to infer its predominant climatic conditions. Additionally, we compared our results with available quantitative data from three other sequences encompassing 70 floristic assemblages to determine latitudinal diversity patterns. Key results : Abundance of humidity indicators was higher than that of aridity indicators (61% vs. 10%). Additionally, we found an angiosperm latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) for the Aptian, but not for the Albian, and an inverted LDG of the overall diversity for the Albian. Angiosperm species turnover during the Albian, however, was higher in humid tropics. Conclusions : There were humid climates in northwestern South America during the Aptian-Albian interval contrary to the widespread aridity expected for the tropical belt. The Albian inverted overall LDG is produced by a faster increase in per-sample angiosperm and pteridophyte diversity in temperate latitudes. However, humid tropical sequences had higher rates of floristic turnover suggesting a higher degree of morphological variation than in temperate regions.

American Journal of Botany↗

Mars reconnaissance orbiter's high resolution imaging science experiment (HiRISE)

The HiRISE camera features a 0.5 m diameter primary mirror, 12 m effective focal length, and a focal plane system that can acquire images containing up to 28 Gb (gigabits) of data in as little as 6 seconds. HiRISE will provide detailed images (0.25 to 1.3 m/pixel) covering ∼1% of the Martian surface during the 2‐year Primary Science Phase (PSP) beginning November 2006. Most images will include color data covering 20% of the potential field of view. A top priority is to acquire ∼1000 stereo pairs and apply precision geometric corrections to enable topographic measurements to better than 25 cm vertical precision. We expect to return more than 12 Tb of HiRISE data during the 2‐year PSP, and use pixel binning, conversion from 14 to 8 bit values, and a lossless compression system to increase coverage. HiRISE images are acquired via 14 CCD detectors, each with 2 output channels, and with multiple choices for pixel binning and number of Time Delay and Integration lines. HiRISE will support Mars exploration by locating and characterizing past, present, and future landing sites, unsuccessful landing sites, and past and potentially future rover traverses. We will investigate cratering, volcanism, tectonism, hydrology, sedimentary processes, stratigraphy, aeolian processes, mass wasting, landscape evolution, seasonal processes, climate change, spectrophotometry, glacial and periglacial processes, polar geology, and regolith properties. An Internet Web site (HiWeb) will enable anyone in the world to suggest HiRISE targets on Mars and to easily locate, view, and download HiRISE data products.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Factors affecting the thermal environment of Agassiz’s Desert Tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) cover sites in the Central Mojave Desert during periods of temperature extremes

Agassiz's Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) spend >95% of their lives underground in cover sites that serve as thermal buffers from temperatures, which can fluctuate >40°C on a daily and seasonal basis. We monitored temperatures at 30 active tortoise cover sites within the Soda Mountains, San Bernardino County, California, from February 2004 to September 2006. Cover sites varied in type and structural characteristics, including opening height and width, soil cover depth over the opening, aspect, tunnel length, and surficial geology. We focused our analyses on periods of extreme temperature: in summer, between July 1 and September 1, and winter, between November 1 and February 15. With the use of multivariate regression tree analyses, we found cover-site temperatures were influenced largely by tunnel length and subsequently opening width and soil cover. Linear regression models further showed that increasing tunnel length increased temperature stability and dampened seasonal temperature extremes. Climate change models predict increased warming for southwestern North America. Cover sites that buffer temperature extremes and fluctuations will become increasingly important for survival of tortoises. In planning future translocation projects and conservation efforts, decision makers should consider habitats with terrain and underlying substrate that sustain cover sites with long tunnels and expanded openings for tortoises living under temperature extremes similar to those described here or as projected in the future.

California↗

Decadal changes in phenology of peak abundance patterns of woodland pond salamanders in northern Wisconsin

Woodland ponds are important landscape features that help sustain populations of amphibians that require this aquatic habitat for successful reproduction. Species abundance patterns often reflect site-specific differences in hydrology, physical characteristics, and surrounding vegetation. Large-scale processes such as changing land cover and environmental conditions are other potential drivers influencing amphibian populations in the Upper Midwest, but little information exists on the combined effects of these factors. We used Blue-spotted (Ambystoma laterale Hallowell) and Spotted Salamander (A. maculatum Shaw) monitoring data collected at the same woodland ponds thirteen years apart to determine if changing environmental conditions and vegetation cover in surrounding landscapes influenced salamander movement phenology and abundance. Four woodland ponds in northern Wisconsin were sampled for salamanders in April 1992-1994 and 2005-2007. While Blue-spotted Salamanders were more abundant than Spotted Salamanders in all ponds, there was no change in the numbers of either species over the years. However, peak numbers of Blue-spotted Salamanders occurred 11.7 days earlier (range: 9-14 days) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s; Spotted Salamanders occurred 9.5 days earlier (range: 3 - 13 days). Air and water temperatures (April 13- 24) increased, on average, 4.8°C and 3.7°C, respectively, between the decades regardless of pond. There were no discernible changes in canopy openness in surrounding forests between decades that would have warmed the water sooner (i.e., more light penetration). Our finding that salamander breeding phenology can vary by roughly 10 days in Wisconsin contributes to growing evidence that amphibian populations have responded to changing climate conditions by shifting life-cycle events. Managers can use this information to adjust monitoring programs and forest management activities in the surrounding landscape to avoid vulnerable amphibian movement periods. Considering direct and indirect stressors such as changing habitat and environmental conditions simultaneously to better understand trends in space and time can help improve monitoring programs for this taxa, which is at major risk of continued declines.

Wisconsin↗

Tropical wetlands in the Anthropocene: The critical role of wet-dry cycles

In the face of climate change and increasing human water demands for agriculture, industry, and cities, the fate of wetland ecosystems in tropical wet-dry climates is threatened. To maximize biodiversity and ecological resilience, the value of the ecosystem services provided by tropical wetlands can be incorporated into regional land use and water management decisions. Environmental planners and resource managers can work to protect both the “dry” and “wet” phases of the wet-dry hydrologic cycles. These cycles have shaped and maintained these ecosystems in the past and they can be used to maximize biodiversity and resilience in the future.

Solutions Journal↗

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck ( Anas fulvigula ). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Texas↗

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Journal of Mountain Science↗

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

Relating hydroclimatic change to streamflow, baseflow, and hydrologic partitioning in the Upper Rio Grande Basin, 1980 to 2015

Understanding how changing climatic conditions affect streamflow volume and timing is critical for effective water management. In the Rio Grande Basin of the southwest U.S., decreasing snowpack, increasing minimum temperatures, and decreasing streamflow have been observed in recent decades, but the effects of hydroclimatic changes on baseflow, or groundwater discharge to streams, have not been investigated. In this study, we determine how trends in precipitation, snowpack accumulation, and snowmelt rate relate to total streamflow, baseflow, and the hydrologic partitioning of baseflow and runoff at 12 sites in the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) during 1980 to 2015. Total streamflow was partitioned into baseflow and runoff components at a daily time step using conductivity-mass-balance hydrograph separation. Trends in annual total streamflow, baseflow, runoff, baseflow index, precipitation, snowmelt rate, and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) were evaluated from 1980 to 2015 using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test. Results indicate that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, contributing an average of 49% of total discharge upstream of Albuquerque, NM. During 1980 to 2015, decreasing trends in total streamflow occurred at 9 of 12 sites and were almost always associated with decreases in baseflow, suggesting that baseflow volumes can respond to changing climatic and anthropogenic conditions within decades. Decreasing snowmelt rates were more frequently associated with decreases in baseflow and total streamflow than were decreases in precipitation and peak SWE, highlighting the importance of snowmelt rate as a process controlling streamflow generation. If snow accumulation and snowmelt rates continue to decrease in the future, results indicate that total streamflow and baseflow volumes will decline, and that baseflow will become a larger fraction of total streamflow in the URGB.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

A synthesis of post-glacial diatom records from Lake Baikal

The biostratigraphy of fossil diatoms contributes important chronologic, paleolimnologic, and paleoclimatic information from Lake Baikal in southeastern Siberia. Diatoms are the dominant and best preserved microfossils in the sediments, and distinctive assemblages and species provide inter-core correlations throughout the basin at millennial to centennial scales, in both high and low sedimentation-rate environments. Distributions of unique species, once dated by radiocarbon, allow diatoms to be used as dating tools for the Holocene history of the lake. Diatom, pollen, and organic geochemical records from site 305, at the foot of the Selenga Delta, provide a history of paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic changes from the late glacial (15 ka) through the Holocene. Before 14 ka diatoms were very rare, probably because excessive turbidity from glacial meltwater entering the lake impeded productivity. Between 14 and 12 ka, lake productivity increased, perhaps as strong winds promoted deep mixing and nutrient regeneration. Pollen evidence suggests a cold shrub — steppe landscape dominated the central Baikal depression at this time. As summer insolation increased, conifers replaced steppe taxa, but diatom productivity declined between 11 and 9 ka perhaps as a result of increased summer turbidity resulting from violent storm runoff entering the lake via short, steep drainages. After 8 ka, drier, but more continental climates prevailed, and the modern diatom flora of Lake Baikal came to prominence. On Academician Ridge, a site of slow sedimentation rates, Holocene diatom assemblages at the top of 10-m cores reappear at deeper levels suggesting that such cores record at least two previous interglacial (or interstadial?) periods. Nevertheless, distinctive species that developed prior to the last glacial period indicate that the dynamics of nutrient cycling in Baikal and the responsible regional climatic environments were not entirely analogous to Holocene conditions. During glacial periods, the deep basin sediments of Lake Baikal are dominated by rapidly deposited clastics entering from large rivers with possibly glaciated headwaters. On the sublacustrine Academician Ridge (depth = 300 m), however, detailed analysis of the diatom biostratigraphy indicates that diastems (hiatuses of minor duration) and (or) highly variable rates of accumulation complicate paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic reconstructions from these records.

Lake Baikal↗

Eruptive and environmental processes recorded by diatoms in volcanically-dispersed lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Late Pleistocene diatomaceous sediment was widely dispersed along with volcanic ash (tephra) across and beyond New Zealand by the 25.4 ka Oruanui supereruption from Taupo volcano. We present a detailed analysis of the diatom populations in the Oruanui tephra and the newly discovered floras in two other eruptions from the same volcano: the 28.6 ka Okaia and 1.8 ka Taupo eruptions. For comparison, the diatoms were also examined in Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake sediments from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ). Our study demonstrates how these microfossils provide insights into the lake history of the TVZ since the Last Glacial Maximum. Morphometric analysis of Aulacoseira valve dimensions provides a useful quantitative tool to distinguish environmental and eruptive processes within and between individual tephras. The Oruanui and Okaia diatom species and valve dimensions are highly consistent with a shared volcanic source, paleolake and eruption style (involving large-scale magma-water interaction). They are distinct from lacustrine sediments sourced elsewhere in the TVZ. Correspondence analysis shows that small, intact samples of erupted lake sediment (i.e., lithic clasts in ignimbrite) contain heterogeneous diatom populations, reflecting local variability in species composition of the paleolake and its shallowly-buried sediments. Our analysis also shows a dramatic post-Oruanui supereruption decline in Cyclostephanos novaezelandiae, which likely reflects a combination of (1) reorganisation of the watershed in the aftermath of the eruption, and (2) overall climate warming following the Last Glacial Maximum. This decline is reflected in substantially lower proportions of C. novaezelandiae in the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption deposits, and even fewer in post-1.8 ka sediments from modern (Holocene) Lake Taupo. Our analysis highlights how the excellent preservation of siliceous microfossils in volcanic tephra may fingerprint the volcanic source region and retain a valuable record of volcanically-influenced environmental change.

Taupo Volcanic Zone↗

Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

Currently, little is known about the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range of California or other mountainous regions of the world. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small alpine peat lands called fens can be used as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge through time. Fens are sustained by groundwater discharge and are highly sensitive to changes in groundwater flow due to hydrologic disturbance including climate change. Seven fens in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range were studied over a 50-80 year period using historic aerial photography. In each aerial photograph, fen areas were identified as open lawn and partially treed areas that exhibited (1) dark brownish-green coloring or various shades of gray and black in black and white imagery and (2) mottling of colors and clustering of vegetation, which signified a distinct moss canopy with overlying clumped sedge vegetation. In addition to the aerial photography study, a climate analysis for the study sites was carried out using both measured data (U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry system) and modeled data (a downscaled version of the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) for the period from 1951 to 2010. Over the study period, the five fens in the Sierra Nevada were found to be decreasing between 10% and 16% in delineated area. The climate analysis revealed significant increases through time in annual mean minimum temperature (T min ) between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. In addition, April 1 snow water equivalent and snowpack longevity also decreased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. For the fens in the Cascade Range, there were no discernible changes in delineated area. At these sites, increases in T min occurred only within the past 20-25 years and decreases in snowpack longevity were more subtle. A conceptual model is presented, which illustrates that basic differences in hydrogeology of the Sierra Nevada vs. the Cascade Range may control the threshold at which changes in delineated fen areas are discernible. Overall, the results from this study show that fens in the Sierra Nevada have strong potential as whole ecosystem gauges for determining long-term changes in groundwater recharge under climate change. Due to either more moderate climate change and/or hydrogeological differences, fens in the southern Cascade Range currently do not appear to have the same utility. A greater sample size of fens in the Sierra Nevada is needed to confirm the general applicability of this method. In addition, future work needs to focus on integrating fen monitoring with geochemical and/or isotopic process-level studies in order to quantify changes in groundwater recharge identified using this new approach.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Journal of Flood Risk Management↗

Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

Great Lakes Basin↗

Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

Aim Climate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana , a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results. Location Alpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Taxon Lednia tumana , a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae. Methods We generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results. Results Contemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation ( F ST ) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation. Main conclusions We identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana , this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

Montana↗