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The response of the Iao aquifer to ground-water development, rainfall, and land-use practices between 1940 and 1998, Island of Maui, Hawaii

Ground water pumped from the Iao aquifer has been used for agricultural purposes since 1948, and domestic purposes since 1955. In 1990, the Hawaii State Commission on Water Resource Management established a value of 20 million gallons per day for the sustainable yield of the aquifer. Water-level data from observation wells throughout the aquifer and information on the depth to and thickness of the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater at the Waiehu deep monitor well indicate that pumping rates near the sustainable yield value of 20 million gallons per day could result in saltwater intrusion in some pumped wells. Since the introduction of pumpage in 1948 and the reduction of recharge in 1980, water levels have declined, chloride concentrations of the pumped water have increased, and the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater has risen. Water levels declined by about 18 feet between 1940 and 1998 in the area near Iao Stream, and by as much as 6 feet between 1977 and 1997 in the vicinity of the major well fields near Waiehu Stream. Chloride concentrations of pumped water have risen at all the well fields, but are presently below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended standard of 250 milligrams per liter. The chloride concentration of water pumped from Mokuhau 2, however, was 460 milligrams per liter in late 1996 when pumping was halted at this well. The midpoint of the transition zone, as measured at the Waiehu deep monitor well, rose by about 108 feet between 1985 and 1998.

Hawaii↗

Resilient riverine social–ecological systems: A new paradigm to meet global conservation targets

The United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity set forth the 30 × 30 target, an agenda for countries to protect at least 30% of their terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030. With <6 years to reach that goal, riverine conservation professionals are faced with the difficult decision of prioritizing which rivers or river segments should be conserved (protected and/or restored). While incorporating resilience into conservation planning is essential for enhancing, restoring, and maintaining the vital riverine ecosystem services (ES) most threatened by climate change and other environmental and human stresses, this paradigm is at odds with traditional conservation approaches that are either opportunistic or reactionary, where only unique and highly visible ecosystems have been prioritized. Barriers to implementing resilience-based riverine conservation planning include: (1) difficulties in conceptualizing and quantifying resilience; (2) insufficient consideration of the social components of riverine systems; (3) the inapplicability of terrestrial-only conservation models to aquatic systems; and (4) the traditional ad hoc and opportunistic approach to conservation. To overcome these barriers, we propose a resilience-based riverine conservation framework that includes: (1) assessing riverine resilience using indicator frameworks; (2) considering rivers as dynamically coupled social–ecological systems; (3) explicitly incorporating terrestrial–aquatic network connectivity into conservation decision-making; and (4) strategic systems planning using a novel resilience–conservation matrix as a tool. This framework has the potential to transform conservation practices around the globe to more effectively protect river systems and enhance their resilience to climate change and human development.

WIREs Water↗

New approaches to wildlife health

Recent environmental change and biodiversity loss have modified ecosystems, altering disease dynamics. For wildlife health, this trend has translated into increased potential for disease transmission and reduced capacity to overcome significant population-level impacts, which may place species at risk of extinction. Thus, current approaches to wildlife health focus not on the absence of disease but rather on the concept of health promotion. That is, wildlife populations will be more resilient to disease if they have the basic requirements for survival, as well as functioning ecosystems, within an enabling socio-economic environment. In this context, animal health programmes must adapt to design and implement wildlife health programmes that bridge knowledge gaps and fully integrate conservation goals. This article proposes new pathways and additions to the animal health management toolbox, including new approaches to surveillance and information management, partnerships and new wildlife health management practices. Solely because of risks to domesticated animals and human health, the traditional approach to disease surveillance in wild animals has now been replaced by a drive to recognise the intrinsic value of wildlife and the extended benefits of actively pursuing ecosystem health and associated life-sustaining ecosystem services. In this context, it is paramount to transition to holistic health programmes that embrace One Health as a pathway to set the health of all on equal footing.

Scientific and Technical Review↗

Evaluation of selected wells in Pennsylvania's observation-well program as of 1993

In 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey operated 62 observation wells in 60 of Pennsylvania's 67 counties in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources. These wells attempt to monitor an aerial extent of 45,000 square miles and penetrate 39 geologic formations or water-bearing units of 14 physiographic provinces. Some wells were drilled specifically for the observation-well program, some were drilled for other U.S. Geological Survey projects, and some were drilled for other purposes and were no longer used. Approximately 3 percent of the network wells have less than 5 years of record, 5 percent have 5 to 15 years of record, and 92 percent have greater than 15 years of record. The older the observation well, the greater the possibility of water levels being affected by physical deterioration of the borehole. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically conduct a series of physical, chemical, and hydraulic tests to determine changes in the physical condition of the well and local land-use practices that may affect water-level response. Nineteen wells were selected for evaluation on the basis of past questionable water-level responses. These wells were evaluated for functionality by analyzing historical water-level fluctuations, geophysical logs, single-well aquifer tests, and water-quality analyses. These parameters indicated that well Je-23 (Jefferson County) is affected by coal-mine pumpage, well Bt-311 (Butler County) is periodically affected by strip mine activities, well Gr-118 (Greene County) and Mc-110 (McKean County exhibit unexplained fluctuations not desirable for an observation well, and 15 wells show no obvious problems or degradation that would affect their functionality to monitor natural water-level fluctuations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Active coral restoration typically involves two interventions: crossing gametes to facilitate sexual larval propagation; and fragmenting, growing, and outplanting adult colonies to enhance asexual propagation. From an evolutionary perspective, the goal of these efforts is to establish self‐sustaining, sexually reproducing coral populations that have sufficient genetic and phenotypic variation to adapt to changing environments. Here, we provide concrete guidelines to help restoration practitioners meet this goal for most Caribbean species of interest. To enable the persistence of coral populations exposed to severe selection pressure from many stressors, a mixed provenance strategy is suggested: genetically unique colonies (genets) should be sourced both locally as well as from more distant, environmentally distinct sites. Sourcing three to four genets per reef along environmental gradients should be sufficient to capture a majority of intraspecies genetic diversity. It is best for practitioners to propagate genets with one or more phenotypic traits that are predicted to be valuable in the future, such as low partial mortality, high wound healing rate, high skeletal growth rate, bleaching resilience, infectious disease resilience, and high sexual reproductive output. Some effort should also be reserved for underperforming genets because colonies that grow poorly in nurseries sometimes thrive once returned to the reef and may harbor genetic variants with as yet unrecognized value. Outplants should be clustered in groups of four to six genets to enable successful fertilization upon maturation. Current evidence indicates that translocating genets among distant reefs is unlikely to be problematic from a population genetic perspective but will likely provide substantial adaptive benefits. Similarly, inbreeding depression is not a concern given that current practices only raise first‐generation offspring. Thus, proceeding with the proposed management strategies even in the absence of a detailed population genetic analysis of the focal species at sites targeted for restoration is the best course of action. These basic guidelines should help maximize the adaptive potential of reef‐building corals facing a rapidly changing environment.

Ecological Applications↗

Overview of environmental and hydrogeologic conditions at Barrow, Alaska

To assist the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in evaluating the potential effects of environmental contamination at their facility in Barrow, Alaska, a general assessment was made of the hydrologic system is the vicinity of the installation. The City of Barrow is located approximately 16 kilometers southwest of Point Barrow, the northernmost point in Alaska, and therefore lies within the region of continuous permafrost. Migration of surface or shallow- subsurface chemical releases in this environ- ment would be largely restricted by near-surface permafrost to surface water and the upper, suprapermafrost zone of the subsurface. In the arctic climate and tundra terrain of the Barrow area, this shallow environment has a limited capacity to attenuate the effects of either physical disturbances or chemical contamination and is therefore highly susceptible to degradation. Esatkuat Lagoon, the present drink- ing water supply for the City of Barrow, is located approximately 2 kilometers from the FAA facility. This lagoon is the only practical source of drinking water available to the City of Barrow because alternative sources of water in the area are (1) frozen throughout most of the year, (2) insufficient in volume, (3) of poor quality, or (4) too costly to develop and distribute.

Open-File Report↗

A Versatile Time-Lapse Camera System Developed by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory for Use at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Volcanoes can be difficult to study up close. Because it may be days, weeks, or even years between important events, direct observation is often impractical. In addition, volcanoes are often inaccessible due to their remote location and (or) harsh environmental conditions. An eruption adds another level of complexity to what already may be a difficult and dangerous situation. For these reasons, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) have, for years, built camera systems to act as surrogate eyes. With the recent advances in digital-camera technology, these eyes are rapidly improving. One type of photographic monitoring involves the use of near-real-time network-enabled cameras installed at permanent sites (Hoblitt and others, in press). Time-lapse camera-systems, on the other hand, provide an inexpensive, easily transportable monitoring option that offers more versatility in site location. While time-lapse systems lack near-real-time capability, they provide higher image resolution and can be rapidly deployed in areas where the use of sophisticated telemetry required by the networked cameras systems is not practical. This report describes the latest generation (as of 2008) time-lapse camera system used by HVO for photograph acquisition in remote and hazardous sites on Kilauea Volcano.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of shallow ground-water quality in recently urbanized areas of Sacramento, California, 1998

Evidence for anthropogenic impact on shallow ground-water quality beneath recently developed urban areas of Sacramento, California, has been observed in the sampling results from 19 monitoring wells in 1998. Eight volatile organic compounds (VOCs), four pesticides, and one pesticide transformation product were detected in low concentrations, and nitrate, as nitrogen, was detected in elevated concentrations; all of these concentrations were below National and State primary and secondary maximum contaminant levels. VOC results from this study are more consistent with the results from urban areas nationwide than from agricultural areas in the Central Valley, indicating that shallow ground-water quality has been impacted by urbanization. VOCs detected may be attributed to either the chlorination of drinking water, such as trichloromethane (chloroform) detected in 16 samples, or to the use of gasoline additives, such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), detected in 2 samples. Pesticides detected may be attributed to use on household lawns and gardens and rights-of-way, such as atrazine detected in three samples, or to past agricultural practices, and potentially to ground-water/surface-water interactions, such as bentazon detected in one sample from a well adjacent to the Sacramento River and downstream from where bentazon historically was used on rice. Concentrations of nitrate may be attributed to natural sources, animal waste, old septic tanks, and fertilizers used on lawns and gardens or previously used on agricultural crops. Seven sample concentrations of nitrate, as nitrogen, exceeded 3.0 milligrams per liter, a level that may indicate impact from human activities. Ground-water recharge from rainfall or surface-water runoff also may contribute to the concentrations of VOCs and pesticides observed in ground water. Most VOCs and pesticides detected in ground-water samples also were detected in air and surface-water samples collected at sites within or adjacent to the recently developed urban areas. Five arsenic sample concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) primary maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 milligrams per liter adopted in 2001. Measurements that exceeded USEPA or California Department of Health Services recommended secondary maximum contaminant levels include manganese, iron, chloride, total dissolved solids, and specific conductance. These exceedances are probably a result of natural processes. Variations in stable isotope ratios of hydrogen (2H/1H) and oxygen (18O/16O) may indicate different sources or a mixing of recharge waters to the urban ground water. These variations also may indicate recharge directly from surface water in one well adjacent to the Sacramento River. Tritium concentrations indicate that most shallow ground water has been recharged since the mid-1950s, and tritium/helium-3 age dates suggest that recharge has occurred in the last 2 to 30 years in some areas. In areas where water table depths exceed 20 meters and wells are deeper, ground-water recharge may have occurred prior to 1950, but low concentrations of pesticides and VOCs detected in these deeper wells indicate a mixing of younger and older waters. Overall, the recently urbanized areas can be divided into two groups. One group contains wells where few VOCs and pesticides were detected, nitrate mostly was not detected, and National and State maximum contaminant levels, including the USEPA MCL for arsenic, were exceeded; these wells are adjacent to rivers and generally are characterized by younger water, shallow (1 to 4 meters) water table, chemically reducing conditions, finer grained sediments, and higher organics in the soils. In contrast, the other group contains wells where more VOCs, pesticides, and elevated nitrate concentrations were detected; these wells are farther from rivers and are generally characterized by a mixture of young and old waters, intermediate to deep (7 to 35 meters) wate

Scientific Investigations Report↗

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve Vegetation Mapping Project

The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate comprehensive information and analysis about natural resources and related topics concerning lands managed by the National Park Service. The series supports the advancement of science, informed decision-making, and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series also provides a forum for presenting lengthier results that may not be accepted by publications with page limitations. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. The peer review was led according to the Fundamental Science Practices of the U.S. Geological Survey. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available in digital format from the Gulf Coast Network website and the Natural Resource Publications Management website.

Louisiana↗

Hierarchical modeling of an invasive spread: The eurasian collared-dove streptopelia decaocto in the United States

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g., emphasize management efforts to prevent new colonization or to eradicate the species in places where it has already settled), it is essential to understand invasion mechanisms and dynamics. Quantifying and understanding what influences rates of spatial spread is a key research area for invasion theory. In this paper, we develop a model to account for occupancy dynamics of an invasive species. Our model extends existing models to accommodate several elements of invasive processes; we chose the framework of hierarchical modeling to assess site occupancy status during an invasion. First, we explicitly accounted for spatial structure and how distance among sites and position relative to one another affect the invasion spread. In particular, we accounted for the possibility of directional propagation and provided a way of estimating the direction of this possible spread. Second, we considered the influence of local density on site occupancy. Third, we decided to split the colonization process into two subprocesses, initial colonization and recolonization, which may be ground-breaking because these subprocesses may exhibit different relationships with environmental variations (such as density variation) or colonization history (e.g., initial colonization might facilitate further colonization events). Finally, our model incorporates imperfection in detection, which might be a source of substantial bias in estimating population parameters. We focused on the case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and its invasion of the United States since its introduction in the early 1980s, using data from the North American BBS (Breeding Bird Survey). The Eurasian Collared-Dove is one of the most successful invasive species, at least among terrestrial vertebrates. Our model provided estimation of the spread direction consistent with empirical observations. Site persistence probability exhibits a quadratic response to density. We also succeeded at detecting differences in the relationship between density and initial colonization vs. recolonization probabilities. We provide a map of sites that may be colonized in the future as an example of possible practical application of our work. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Use of terrestrial field studies in the derivation of bioaccumulation potential of chemicals

Field-based studies are an essential component of research addressing the behavior of organic chemicals, and a unique line of evidence that can be used to assess bioaccumulation potential in chemical registration programs and aid in development of associated laboratory and modeling efforts. To aid scientific and regulatory discourse on the application of terrestrial field data in this manner, this article provides practical recommendations regarding the generation and interpretation of terrestrial field data. Currently, biota-to-soil-accumulation factors (BSAFs), biomagnification factors (BMFs), and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) are the most suitable bioaccumulation metrics that are applicable to bioaccumulation assessment evaluations and able to be generated from terrestrial field studies with relatively low uncertainty. Biomagnification factors calculated from field-collected samples of terrestrial carnivores and their prey appear to be particularly robust indicators of bioaccumulation potential. The use of stable isotope ratios for quantification of trophic relationships in terrestrial ecosystems needs to be further developed to resolve uncertainties associated with the calculation of terrestrial trophic magnification factors (TMFs). Sampling efforts for terrestrial field studies should strive for efficiency, and advice on optimization of study sample sizes, practical considerations for obtaining samples, selection of tissues for analysis, and data interpretation is provided. Although there is still much to be learned regarding terrestrial bioaccumulation, these recommendations provide some initial guidance to the present application of terrestrial field data as a line of evidence in the assessment of chemical bioaccumulation potential and a resource to inform laboratory and modeling efforts.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

Vegetative response to water availability on the San Carlos Apache Reservation

On the San Carlos Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona, U.S.A., vegetation types such as ponderosa pine forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, and grasslands have significant ecological, cultural, and economic value for the Tribe. This value extends beyond the tribal lands and across the Western United States. Vegetation across the Southwestern United States is susceptible to drought conditions and fluctuating water availability. Remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to measure and monitor spatial and temporal vegetative response to fluctuating water availability conditions. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index II (MSAVI 2 ) to measure the condition of three dominant vegetation types (ponderosa pine forest, woodland, and grassland) in response to two fluctuating environmental variables: precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study period covered 2002 through 2014 and focused on a region within the San Carlos Apache Reservation. We determined that grassland and woodland had a similar moderate to strong, year-round, positive relationship with precipitation as well as with summer SPEI. This suggests that these vegetation types respond negatively to drought conditions and are more susceptible to initial precipitation deficits. Ponderosa pine forest had a comparatively weaker relationship with monthly precipitation and summer SPEI, indicating that it is more buffered against short-term drought conditions. This research highlights the response of multiple, dominant vegetation types to seasonal and inter-annual water availability. This research demonstrates that multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be an effective tool for the large scale detection of vegetation response to adverse impacts from climate change and support potential management practices such as increased monitoring and management of drought-affected areas. Different vegetation types displayed various responses to water availability, further highlighting the need for individual management plans for forest and woodland, especially considering the projected drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. and other arid or semi-arid regions around the world.

Arizona↗

Water-quality assessment of the Trinity River Basin, Texas - Nutrients in two coastal prairie streams draining agricultural areas, 1994-95

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began nationwide implementation of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Long-term goals of NAWQA are to describe the status of and trends in the quality of a large, representative part of the Nation?s surface- and ground-water resources and to provide a sound, scientific understanding of the primary natural and human factors affecting the quality of these resources (Leahy and others, 1990). The Trinity River Basin in east-central Texas (fig. 1) was among the first 20 hydrologic areas, called study units, to be assessed by this program. The first intensive data-collection phase for the Trinity River Basin NAWQA began in March 1993 and ended in September 1995. Streams in the Trinity River Basin were assessed by sampling water, bed sediment, and tissue of biota and characterizing the aquatic communities and their habitat. Aquifers were assessed by sampling water from wells. The coastal prairie is a small part of the Trinity River Basin, but it is environmentally important because of its proximity to Galveston Bay and the extensive use of agricultural chemicals on many irrigated farms. Galveston Bay (fig. 1) was selected by Congress as an estuary of national significance and was included on a priority list for the National Estuary Program. The Trinity River is especially important because its watershed dominates the total Galveston Bay drainage area and because its flow contributes substantial amounts of freshwater and water-quality constituents to the bay. Historically, measurements of the quantity and quality of water entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River Basin have been made using data from a station about 113 kilometers (70 miles) upstream from Trinity Bay, an inlet bay to Galveston Bay. With a focused objective of providing additional water-quality information in the intervening coastal prairie area and an overall objective of improving the understanding of the relations between farming practices and stream quality in the Trinity River Basin, a special study was conducted. This report provides a description of the occurrence and concentrations of nutrients in two streams in this intervening area. An earlier report by Brown (1996) describes the occurrence and concentrations of pesticides in these two streams. An overall analysis of nutrient data collected during 1974?91 in the Trinity River Basin is given by Van Metre and Reutter (1995).

Open-File Report↗

The effects of management practices on grassland birds—Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus )

Keys to Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) management are maintenance of expansive stands of sagebrush ( Artemisia species [spp.]), especially varieties of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) with abundant forbs in the understory, particularly during spring; undisturbed and somewhat open sites for leks; and healthy perennial grass and forb stands intermixed with sagebrush for brood rearing. Within suitable habitats, areas should have 15–25 percent canopy cover of sagebrush 30–80 centimeters (cm) tall for nesting and 10–25 percent canopy cover 40–80 cm tall for brood rearing. In winter habitats, shrubs should be exposed 25–35 cm above snow and have 10–30 percent canopy cover exposed above snow. In nesting and brood-rearing habitats, the understory should have at least 15 percent cover of grasses and at least 10 percent cover of forbs greater than or equal to 18 cm tall. Greater Sage-Grouse have been reported to use habitats with 5–110 cm average vegetation height, 5–160 cm visual obstruction reading, 3–51 percent grass cover, 3–20 percent forb cover, 3–69 percent shrub cover, 7–63 percent sagebrush cover, 14–51 percent bare ground, and 0–18 percent litter cover. Unless otherwise noted, this account refers to habitat requirements and environmental factors affecting Greater Sage-Grouse but not Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ). Habitats used by Gunnison Sage-Grouse are generally similar to habitats used by Greater Sage-Grouse, but some differences have been reported. The Greater Sage-Grouse is a game bird and is hunted throughout most of its current range. This account does not address harvest or its effects on populations; rather, this account focuses on the effects of habitat management.

Professional Paper↗

Nutrient, organic carbon, and chloride concentrations and loads in selected Long Island Sound tributaries—Four decades of change following the passage of the Federal Clean Water Act

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from 14 water-quality monitoring sites in Connecticut were evaluated for water years 1974&ndash;2013 and 2001&ndash;13, coinciding with implementation of the Clean Water Act of 1972 and the Connecticut Nitrogen Credit Exchange program, as part of an assessment of nutrient and chloride concentrations and loads discharged to Long Island Sound. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, data were evaluated using a recently developed methodology of weighted regressions with time, streamflow, and season. Trends in streamflow were evaluated using a locally weighted scatterplot smoothing method. Annual mean streamflow increased at 12 of the 14 sites averaging 8 percent during the entire study period, primarily in the summer months, and increased by an average of 9 percent in water years 2001&ndash;13, primarily during summer and fall months. Downward trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during both periods for most sites for total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon. Average flow-normalized loads of total nitrogen decreased by 23.9 percent for the entire period and 10.9 percent for the period of water years 2001‒13. Major factors contributing to decreases in flow-normalized loads and concentrations of these nutrients include improvements in wastewater treatment practices, declining atmospheric wet deposition of nitrogen, and changes in land management and land use. Loads of dissolved silica (DSi; flow-normalized and non-flow-normalized) increased slightly at most stations during the study period and were positively correlated to urbanized land in the basin and negatively correlated to area of open water. Concentrations and loads of chloride increased at 12 of the 14 sites during both periods. Increases likely are the result of an increase in the use of salt for deicing, as well as other factors related to urbanization and population growth, such as increases in wastewater discharge and discharge from septic systems.

Connecticut↗

The potential for species distribution models to distinguish source populations from sinks

1. While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict species occurrences to help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably predict intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source from sink populations. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for conservation science, as applications of SDMs for management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population or metapopulation dynamics. 2. Using regression, we associate previously published population level estimates of intrinsic growth and abundance derived from a Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data for 17 bird species found in the contiguous United States with SDM habitat suitability estimates fitted here to opportunistic data for these same species. We then use AUC to measure how well SDMs can distinguish populations categorized as sources and sinks, depending on their intrinsic growth rates estimated from the mark-recapture data. We built SDMs using two different approaches, boosted regression trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), and compared their predictive performance. Each SDM was built with presence points obtained from eBird and 10 environmental variables previously selected to model intrinsic growth rates and abundance for these species. 3. We show that SDMs built with opportunistic data are poor predictors of species demography in general; both BRT and GLM explained very little spatial variation of intrinsic growth rate and population abundance (median R2 across 17 species was close to 0.1 for both SDM methods). SDMs do, however, estimate higher suitability for source populations as compared to sinks. Out of 13 species which had both source and sink populations, both BRT and GLM had AUC values greater than 0.7 for 7 species when discriminating between sources and sinks. 4. Habitat suitability have the potential to be a useful measure to indicate a population’s ability to sustain itself as a source population, however more research on a diverse set of taxa is essential to fully explore this potential. This interpretation of habitat suitability can be particularly useful for conservation practice, and identification of explicit cases of when and how SDMs fail to match population demography can be informative for advancing ecological theory.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Periphyton biomass and community compositions as indicators of water quality in the Lower Grand River hydrologic unit, Missouri and Iowa, 2011–18

Biological communities, including periphyton, are continuously affected by chemical, physical, and other biological factors, and the health of these communities can reflect the overall health of the aquatic system. A diverse community is more robust, and communities with lower richness and evenness often indicate a degraded community dominated by few taxa tolerant to the degraded conditions, which makes the community more susceptible to ecological changes. Water-quality nutrient samples were collected at sites in the Lower Grand River during 2010 through 2018 and periphyton sample collections began in 2011 to describe the periphyton community and overall ecological health. Nutrient sample concentrations were generally elevated at these sites, which can lead to eutrophication, excessive plant and algae growth, drinking-water taste and odor problems, low dissolved-oxygen concentrations, and harmful algal blooms. Concentrations of total nitrogen were greater than acceptable as described by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and total phosphorus concentrations were greater than reference concentrations. Periphyton communities were dominated by taxa that are tolerant to or indicative of elevated nutrient concentrations; and nuisance algae, or harmful algal bloom producers, were identified at all sites, except one. The presence of these producers indicates that harmful algal blooms may have high potential during optimal conditions at these sites. Chlorophyll concentrations that exceed 100 milligrams per square meter are considered nuisance and were determined in 11 percent of the samples and at every site during September 2012. Samples were collected during low-flow conditions when nutrient concentrations are generally lower than during high-flow and runoff conditions. Elevated nutrient concentrations during low-flow conditions indicate nutrient concentrations are likely elevated throughout most of the year. Agriculture is the primary land use within the Lower Grand River and is likely a primary source of nutrients and sediments. Conservation practices intended to reduce nutrient loss from agriculture fields have increased because of the Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative and will potentially increase the ecological, chemical, and physical health of these waterways.

Iowa, Missouri↗

Monitoring and simulation of hydrology, suspended sediment, and nutrients in selected tributary watersheds of Lake Erie, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Erie County, New York, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, collected water-quality samples in nine selected New York tributaries to Lake Erie, computed estimates of suspended sediment and nutrient loads using the R scripting package rloadest and used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient loads from these tributaries. This project was undertaken to better understand the water quality of New York’s inputs into eastern Lake Erie. Water-quality samples for suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus were collected at 19 sampling sites in the Lake Erie Basin in New York. Daily and monthly suspended sediment and nutrient loads were computed with regressions of streamflow and suspended sediment and nutrient concentrations using rloadest. SWAT models of nine watersheds were created using publicly available data; and the loads calculated by rloadest. Twenty-six SWAT model scenarios were created to explore the effects that best management practices (BMPs; 21 scenarios), point source discharges (4 scenarios), and green infrastructure (1 scenario) can have on the water quality of the nine tributaries to Lake Erie. BMP scenarios for the watershed models included combinations of agricultural BMPs applied at varying implementation levels across the study watersheds, including cover crops, reduced tillage, nutrient management plans, and filter strips. The BMP scenarios showed small reductions of total nitrogen and total phosphorus. The scenarios have variable suspended sediment load results, with both increases and decreases of sediment modeled. The point source scenarios result in lower total phosphorus loads. The green infrastructure scenario shows only minimal reduction of suspended sediment and nutrient loads from the Buffalo River watershed but shows substantial reductions locally.

New York↗