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At least 721 records · Page 40Linked to original sources

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs.

Colorado, Georgia↗

Biomonitoring using invasive species in a large Lake: Dreissena distribution maps hypoxic zones

Due to cultural eutrophication and global climate change, an exponential increase in the number and extent of hypoxic zones in marine and freshwater ecosystems has been observed in the last few decades. Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, can produce strong negative ecological impacts and, therefore, is a management concern. We measured biomass and densities of Dreissena in Lake Erie, as well as bottom DO in 2014 using 19 high frequency data loggers distributed throughout the central basin to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological lake model. We found that a deep, offshore hypoxic zone was formed by early August, restricting the Dreissena population to shallow areas of the central basin. Deeper than 20 m, where bottom hypoxia routinely develops, only young of the year mussels were found in small numbers, indicating restricted recruitment and survival of young Dreissena . We suggest that monitoring Dreissena distribution can be an effective tool for mapping the extent and frequency of hypoxia in freshwater. In addition, our results suggest that an anticipated decrease in the spatial extent of hypoxia resulting from nutrient management has the potential to increase the spatial extent of profundal habitat in the central basin available for Dreissena expansion.

Lake Erie↗

Occurrence of Cyathocephalus truncatus (Cestoda) in fishes of the Great Lakes with emphasis on its occurrence in round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus) from Lake Huron

Cyathocephalus truncatus is a pathogenic cestode that is common in many Laurentian Great Lakes fish species, but the depth distribution of this cestode has not been studied. Cyathocephalus truncatus has been reported from 21 fish species and one hybrid representing seven orders and nine families in Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Ontario. We examined the intestinal contents of six species of fish collected in Michigan waters of Lake Huron, from DeTour to Harbor Beach, in 2001 to 2003 for the presence of this cestode species. Cyathocephalus truncatus was found in five native fish species and the exotic round goby. Prevalence (52%) and mean intensity (4.6 cestodes per infected fish) were highest in bloaters. This is the first reported occurrence of this cestode in round gobies from the Great Lakes. None of the gobies trawled from Lake Huron at depths of 27 to 46 m were infected, but prevalence and intensity of infection in round gobies increased significantly with depth from 55 to 73 m. Our diet study of round gobies indicated that they preyed heavily on amphipods ( Diporeia hoyi ) at depths of 55 to 73 m. Cyathocephalus truncatus was found in eight of 605 D. hoyi obtained by Ponar grab sampling. This suggests that C. truncatus eggs may be released from infected gobies and sink to deep basins with silt bottoms where D. hoyi occur.

Lake Huron↗

An integrated environmental tracer approach to characterizing groundwater circulation in a mountain block

The subsurface transfer of water from a mountain block to an adjacent basin (mountain block recharge (MBR)) is a commonly invoked mechanism of recharge to intermountain basins. However, MBR estimates are highly uncertain. We present an approach to characterize bulk fluid circulation in a mountain block and thus MBR that utilizes environmental tracers from the basin aquifer. Noble gas recharge temperatures, groundwater ages, and temperature data combined with heat and fluid flow modeling are used to identify clearly improbable flow regimes in the southeastern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and adjacent Wasatch Mountains. The range of possible MBR rates is reduced by 70%. Derived MBR rates (5.5–12.6 × 10 4 m 3 d −1 ) are on the same order of magnitude as previous large estimates, indicating that significant MBR to intermountain basins is plausible. However, derived rates are 50–100% of the lowest previous estimate, meaning total recharge is probably less than previously thought.

Water Resources Research↗

Magma intrusion and volatile ascent beneath Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

Recent activity has provided new insights into the causes of surface deformation in and around the Yellowstone Caldera, a topic that has been debated since the discovery of caldera floor uplift more than four decades ago. An episode of unusually rapid uplift (>15 cm/yr) centered near Norris Geyser Basin along the north caldera rim began in late 2013 and continued until a M w 4.9 earthquake on 30 March 2014; thereafter, uplift abruptly switched to subsidence. Uplift at rates of several centimeters per year resumed in 2016 and continued at least through the end of 2018. Modeling of Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data suggests an evolving process of deep magma intrusion during 1996–2001 followed by volatile ascent and accumulation at shallow levels, perhaps as shallow as a few hundred meters depth. The depth of shallow volatile accumulation appears to have shallowed from the 2014 to the 2016 deformation episode, and frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geyser since March 2018 are likely a surface manifestation of this ongoing process. Hydrothermal explosion features are prominent in the Norris Geyser Basin area, and the apparent shallow nature of the volatile accumulation implies an increased risk of hydrothermal explosions.

Wyoming↗

Baseflow age distributions and depth of active groundwater flow in a snow‐dominated mountain headwater basin

Deeper flows through bedrock in mountain watersheds could be important, but lack of data to characterize bedrock properties limits understanding. To address data scarcity, we combine a previously published integrated hydrologic model of a snow‐dominated, headwater basin of the Colorado River with a new method for dating baseflow age using dissolved gas tracers SF 6 , CFC‐113, N 2 , and Ar. The original flow model predicts the majority of groundwater flow through shallow alluvium (<8 m) sitting on top of less permeable bedrock. The water moves too quickly and is unable to reproduce observed SF 6 concentrations. To match gas data, bedrock permeability is increased to allow a larger fraction of deeper and older groundwater flow (median 112 m). The updated hydrologic model indicates interannual variability in baseflow age (3–12 years) is controlled by the volume of seasonal interflow and tightly coupled to snow accumulation and monsoon rain. Deeper groundwater flow remains stable (11.7 ± 0.7 years) as a function mean historical recharge to bedrock hydraulic conductivity (R/K). A sensitivity analysis suggests that increasing bedrock K effectively moves this alpine basin away from its original conceptualization of hyperlocalized groundwater flow (high R/K) with groundwater age insensitive to changes in water inputs. Instead, this basin is situated close to the precipitation threshold defining recharge controlled groundwater flow conditions (low R/K) in which groundwater age increases with small reductions in precipitation. Work stresses the need to explore alternative methods characterizing bedrock properties in mountain basins to better quantify deeper groundwater flow and predict their hydrologic response to change.

Colorado↗

Potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin over multiple centuries identified using tree-ring based multi-model streamflow reconstructions

The Missouri River basin (MRB), the largest river basin in the United States, presents major water management challenges due to its complex topology and extensive infrastructure designed to manage high annual flows. Severe hydroclimatic events, particularly floods in 1993, 2011, and 2019, have highlighted vulnerabilities, leading the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to enhance flood risk assessments in 2023. This study focuses on the full MRB, using tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to extend the Basin's historic streamflow perspective. We developed annual streamflow reconstructions for the Hermann, Missouri streamgage from water years 1360–1900 using K-nearest neighbor and principal component regression methods. These reconstructions incorporate 183 tree-ring chronologies (1360–2020) and modeled natural streamflow (1901–‍2020). Reconstructions were evaluated for consistency using statistical measures and wavelet analysis. Both methods produced similar results, confirming their reliability in reconstructing multi-century streamflows. This novel methodology, guided by wavelet analysis, was developed to identify potential flood events in the lower Missouri River basin (LMRB), resulting in the identification of 172 potential flood events from water years 1360–2020, with 126 events common to the two versions of the MRB reconstructions. The reconstructed streamflow records showed an increase in the number of events until the late-18th- or mid-19th-century. These findings provide insights into evolving flood characteristics in the LMRB. The novel methodology developed in this study can be used to identify potential flood events from tree-ring based annual streamflow reconstructions and generally be applicable to other river basins.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wyomin↗

Eolian transport, saline lake basins, and groundwater solutes

Eolian processes associated with saline lakes are shown to be important in determining solute concentration in groundwater in arid and semiarid areas. Steady state mass balance analyses of chloride in the groundwater at Double Lakes, a saline lake basin in the southern High Plains of Texas, United States, suggest that approximately 4.5 × 10 5 kg of chloride is removed from the relatively small (4.7 km 2 ) basin floor each year by deflation. This mass enters the groundwater down the wind gradient from the lake, degrading the water quality. The estimates of mass transport were independently determined by evaluation of solutes in the unsaturated zone and by solute mass balance calculations of groundwater flux. Transport of salts from the lake was confirmed over a short term (2 years) by strategically placed dust collectors. Results consistent with those at Double Lake were obtained from dune surfaces collected upwind and downwind from a sabkha near the city of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The eolian transport process provides an explanation of the degraded groundwater quality associated with the 30–40 saline lake basins on the southern half of the southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico and in many other arid and semiarid areas.

Water Resources Research↗

Distribution of late Cenozoic volcanic vents in the Cascade Range: Volcanic arc segmentation and regional tectonic considerations

Spatial, temporal, and compositional distributions of approximately 4000 volcanic vents formed since 16 Ma in Washington, Oregon, northern California, and northwestern Nevada illustrate the evolution of volcanism related to subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate system and extension of the Basin and Range province. Vent data were obtained from published map compilations and include monogenetic and small polygenetic volcanoes in addition to major composite centers. On the basis of the distribution of 2821 vents formed since 5 Ma, the Cascade Range is divided into five segments, with vents of the High Lava Plains along the northern margin of the Basin and Range province in Oregon forming a sixth segment. Some aspects of the Cascade Range segmentation can be related to gross structural features of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The orientation of the volcanic front of segments one and two changes from NW in northern Washington to NE in southern Washington, paralleling the strike of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Segments one and two are separated by a 90-km volcanic gap between Mount Rainier and Glacier Peak that is landward of the portion of the subducting plate having the least average dip to a depth of 60 km. A narrow, N-S trending belt of predominantly andesitic vents in Oregon constitutes a third segment, which is landward of the seismically quiet portion of the subduction zone. The narrowness of this segment may indicate steep dip of the subducting plate beneath the Cascade arc in Oregon. Vents are sparse between segment four (containing the Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake centers) and segment five (containing Lassen Peak), where the Juan de Fuca and Gorda North plates are characterized by differing age, amounts of subcrustal seismicity, and probably geometry. From the relation between seismicity at depth of 60 km and the position of the volcanic front of vents formed since 5 Ma, transitions between subducting-plate segments of varying geometry likely occur near boundaries between independently defined volcanic segments in northern Oregon and northern California. In the Basin and Range province east of the Cascade arc, volcanism migrated into the region adjacent to the Cascade Range during the interval 5–10 Ma. Since 5 Ma, the impingement of the two provinces is characterized by cessation of basin-range volcanism in southern Oregon, continuation of basaltic volcanism in northeastern California where the impingement process may not yet be complete, and contraction of the area of mafic volcanism around Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, and Lassen Peak. In central Oregon where the northern margin of basin-range volcanism (the High Lava Plains) intersects the Cascade arc, impingement of basin-range extensional volcanism approximately coincides in time and space with the development of the High Cascade graben between Three Sisters and Mount Jefferson.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Effect of rainfall variability on streamflow simulation

Three recording rain gages in a 9.7‐square‐mile basin in southern California were used with a deterministic rainfall‐runoff model to simulate flood hydrographs and peaks and to assess the effects of data errors on simulation results. Bias in the estimation of effective basin rainfall seemed to result in curve fitting parameter adjustments which compensated for the bias. The combined effects for a storm of both difference in the time distribution of rainfall at different points and spatial variability of rainfall volume over the basin limit the possible accuracy of simulation results. The use of a single rain gage on a basin with this hydrology can at best be expected to predict peak discharge with a standard error of estimate on the order of 20%.

California↗

Ground-motion amplification in Cook Inlet region, Alaska from intermediate-depth earthquakes, including the 2018 MW=7.1 Anchorage earthquake

We measure pseudospectral and peak ground motions from 44 intermediate‐depth M w &#x2265; 4.9 "> M w ≥ 4.9 earthquakes in the Cook Inlet region of southern Alaska, including those from the 2018 M w "> M w 7.1 earthquake near Anchorage, to identify regional amplification features ( ⁠ 0.1 &#x2013; 5 &#x2009;&#x2009; s "> 0.1 – 5 s period). Ground‐motion residuals are computed with respect to an empirical ground‐motion model for intraslab subduction earthquakes, and we compute bias, between‐, and within‐event terms through a linear mixed‐effects regression. Between‐event residuals are analyzed to assess the relative source characteristics of the Cook Inlet earthquakes and suggest a difference in the scaling of the source with depth, relative to global observations. The within‐event residuals are analyzed to investigate regional amplification, and various spatial patterns manifest, including correlations of amplification with depth of the Cook Inlet basin and varying amplifications east and west of the center of the basin. Three earthquake clusters are analyzed separately and indicate spatial amplification patterns that depend on source location and exhibit variations in the depth scaling of long‐period basin amplification. The observations inform future seismic hazard modeling efforts in the Cook Inlet region. More broadly, they suggest a greater complexity of basin and regional amplification than is currently used in seismic hazard analyses.

Alaska↗

Habitat and prey availability attributes associated with juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon occurrence in the Missouri River, USA

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a federally endangered species native to the Missouri and lower Mississippi Rivers, USA. As part of recovery efforts, over 360000 pallid sturgeon have been stocked into the Missouri River since 1994, and a standardized, long-term monitoring program was initiated in 2003. Understanding the distribution and habitat requirements of juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon (fork length <720 mm, age <10 yr) is an important goal of the monitoring and recovery programs. In this study, we collected information on habitat characteristics and prey availability from the upper Missouri River along the Nebraska-South Dakota border and compared these attributes between capture (present) and non-capture (absent) locations (N = 59). To evaluate the relative influence of habitat and prey availability on pallid sturgeon occurrence, we examined several candidate models using an information-theoretic approach. A prey availability model had the most support and included site-specific information on Diptera and Ephemeroptera abundance. A habitat-based model showed that juveniles and early adults were found in relatively deeper water and avoided areas where bottom velocities were greater than 1.2 m s −1 . Although not as well supported as the prey-effects model (evidence ratio = 6.4), habitat features also provided a plausible model for predicting occurrence. The models developed here could be used to evaluate pallid sturgeon habitat potential in the Missouri River basin and help guide future monitoring and conservation management of this endangered species.

Missouri River↗

Silurian and Devonian miogeosynclinal and transitional rocks of the Fish Creek Reservoir window, central Idaho

Documentation of Devonian continental-shelf shallow-water carbonate rocks in the core of the Fish Creek Reservoir window shifts the known westernmost limit of the Devonian miogeosyncline 50 km (30 mi) southwest across the structural grain from the well-known miogeosynclinal sequence in the Lost River Range. The miogeosynclinal carbonate sequence in the window has a minimum thickness of 450 m (1,500 ft). It comprises the upper Lower Devonian (Emsian) and lower Middle Devonian (Eifelian) Carey Dolomite (new), the upper Middle Devonian (Givetian) and Upper Devonian Jefferson Formation, and the Upper Devonian Picabo Formation (new). Conodont faunas precisely date the Carey. The Picabo Formation, composed of interbedded sandy dolomite-pebble conglomerate and dolomitic quartzose sandstone, is unlike any previously described formation of Late Devonian or Early Mississippian age in central Idaho. It resembles parts of the Stansbury, Beirdneau, Leatham, and Victoria Formations, which reflect areas of local Late Devonian uplift and erosion of older shelf rocks in northern Utah and southeastern Idaho. Transitional (continental-slope) rocks of the Roberts Mountains Formation representing reef and offreef facies are thrust over the Devonian shelf sequence within the Fish Creek Reservoir window. The Roberts Mountains Formation here is precisely dated as latest Silurian (Pridolian, eosteinhornensis Zone) through earliest Devonian (Lochkovian) by a sequence of conodont faunas. The easternmost known exposures of possible Devonian siliceous facies rocks assigned to the Milligen(?) Formation are present less than 4.8 km (3 mi) southwest of the shelf sequence. Structural relations and paleotectonic reconstructions suggest that they have a minimum eastward translation of 32 km (20 mi). The Devonian continent-ocean basin interface, along which the Antler orogenic belt developed at this latitude, probably was located near the east edge of the present Idaho batholith.

Idaho↗

Incremental evolution of modeling a prognosis for polar bears in a rapidly changing Arctic

Updating predictions of the response of high-profile, at-risk species to climate change and anthropogenic stressors is vital for informing effective conservation action. Here, we review two prior generations of Bayesian network probability models predicting changes in global polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) population status, and provide a contemporary update based on recent research findings and sea-ice projections by newer climate models. We compare predictions of polar bear population response from all 3 models among four circumpolar Arctic ecoregions, using sea ice projections based on three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Consistent with the previous two model generations, polar bears will continue to experience increasing probability of declining or greatly declining populations throughout the 21st century, varying by emission scenario. Populations within the Polar Basin Divergent Ice Ecoregion have the highest predicted probability of declines, but predictions were slightly less dire relative to the previous model generation. Most of the influence, denoted by model sensitivity analysis, is from expected degradation and loss of sea ice and reduced access to marine prey. The lack of terrestrial prey adequate to substitute for loss of access to marine prey, as well as human-caused bear morality associated with hunting and defense of life and property encountered when polar bears are increasingly forced ashore also contributed to predicted declines. Although some tidewater glacial fjords and other localized onshore resources may provide local refugia, their benefit is transient. Our findings continue to inform priorities for inventory, monitoring, and research needs, and suggest that similar updates to models of other at-risk species can capitalize on the comparison framework we present here.

Ecological Indicators↗

Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE): A modular framework to diagnose differences between hydrological models

The problems of identifying the most appropriate model structure for a given problem and quantifying the uncertainty in model structure remain outstanding research challenges for the discipline of hydrology. Progress on these problems requires understanding of the nature of differences between models. This paper presents a methodology to diagnose differences in hydrological model structures: the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE). FUSE was used to construct 79 unique model structures by combining components of 4 existing hydrological models. These new models were used to simulate streamflow in two of the basins used in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina). Results show that the new models produced simulations of streamflow that were at least as good as the simulations produced by the models that participated in the MOPEX experiment. Our initial application of the FUSE method for the Guadalupe River exposed relationships between model structure and model performance, suggesting that the choice of model structure is just as important as the choice of model parameters. However, further work is needed to evaluate model simulations using multiple criteria to diagnose the relative importance of model structural differences in various climate regimes and to assess the amount of independent information in each of the models. This work will be crucial to both identifying the most appropriate model structure for a given problem and quantifying the uncertainty in model structure. To facilitate research on these problems, the FORTRAN‐90 source code for FUSE is available upon request from the lead author.

Water Resources Research↗

Upper Cretaceous sequences and sea-level history, New Jersey Coastal Plain

We developed a Late Cretaceous sealevel estimate from Upper Cretaceous sequences at Bass River and Ancora, New Jersey (ODP [Ocean Drilling Program] Leg 174AX). We dated 11-14 sequences by integrating Sr isotope and biostratigraphy (age resolution ??0.5 m.y.) and then estimated paleoenvironmental changes within the sequences from lithofacies and biofacies analyses. Sequences generally shallow upsection from middle-neritic to inner-neritic paleodepths, as shown by the transition from thin basal glauconite shelf sands (transgressive systems tracts [TST]), to medial-prodelta silty clays (highstand systems tracts [HST]), and finally to upper-delta-front quartz sands (HST). Sea-level estimates obtained by backstripping (accounting for paleodepth variations, sediment loading, compaction, and basin subsidence) indicate that large (>25 m) and rapid (???1 m.y.) sea-level variations occurred during the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world. The fact that the timing of Upper Cretaceous sequence boundaries in New Jersey is similar to the sea-level lowering records of Exxon Production Research Company (EPR), northwest European sections, and Russian platform outcrops points to a global cause. Because backstripping, seismicity, seismic stratigraphic data, and sediment-distribution patterns all indicate minimal tectonic effects on the New Jersey Coastal Plain, we interpret that we have isolated a eustatic signature. The only known mechanism that can explain such global changes-glacio-eustasy-is consistent with foraminiferal ??18O data. Either continental ice sheets paced sea-level changes during the Late Cretaceous, or our understanding of causal mechanisms for global sea-level change is fundamentally flawed. Comparison of our eustatic history with published ice-sheet models and Milankovitch predictions suggests that small (5-10 ?? 106 km3), ephemeral, and areally restricted Antarctic ice sheets paced the Late Cretaceous global sea-level change. New Jersey and Russian eustatic estimates are typically one-half of the EPR amplitudes, though this difference varies through time, yielding markedly different eustatic curves. We conclude that New Jersey provides the best available estimate for Late Cretaceous sea-level variations. ?? 2004 Geological Society America.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (&ldquo;spring rises&rdquo;), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16&ndash;18 &deg;C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri&ndash;Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June&ndash;July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36&ndash;39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗

Identifying the molecular signatures of agricultural expansion in Amazonian headwater streams

Agricultural impacts on aquatic ecosystems are well-studied, however, most research has focused on temperate regions, whereas the forefront of agricultural expansion is currently in the tropics. At the vanguard of this growth is the boundary between the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in Brazil, driven primarily by expansion of soybean and corn croplands. Here we examine the impacts of cropland expansion on receiving lowland Amazon Basin headwater streams in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition via ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry. Streams draining croplands had lower DOC concentrations and DOM molecular signatures enriched in N- and S-containing formula in comparison to forested streams. Cropland streams were also enriched in aliphatic, peptide-like and highly unsaturated and phenolic (low O/C) compound categories in comparison to forest streams (enriched in polyphenolics, condensed aromatics and highly unsaturated and phenolic (high O/C) compound categories) indicative of the shifting of sources from organic-rich surface soils and litter layers to autochthonous and more microbial biomass. Distinct molecular assemblages were strongly correlated with cropland and forest catchments, highlighting headwater streams as sentinels for detecting change. On investigation of unique molecular formulae present in only cropland sites, four cropland markers provided the ability to track agricultural impacts in the region. Overall, these patterns indicate reduced organic matter inputs in croplands and greater microbial degradation at these sites leading to declining DOC concentrations, and DOM of more microbial character in receiving streams that is more biolabile, with clear ramifications for downstream ecology and biogeochemical cycles.

Amazon River basin, Tanguro Ranch, Xinga River↗