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Strategic directions for U.S. Geological Survey water science, 2012-2022 - Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that was begun in the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). The report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Strategic Science Plan is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences . The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 130-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report. Priority actions focus on the following: Improve integrated science planning for water. Expand and enhance water-resource monitoring networks. Characterize the water cycle through development of state-of-the-art 3-D/4-D hydrogeologic framework models at multiple scales. Clarify the linkage between human water use (engineered hydrology) and the water cycle (natural hydrology). Advance ecological flow science. Provide flood-inundation science and information. Develop rapid deployment teams for water-related emergencies. Conduct integrated watershed assessment, research, and modeling. Deliver water data and analyses to the Nation. The body of the report is presented as a hierarchal set of 5 goals, 14 objectives, and 27 strategic actions that the USGS should undertake to advance water science through year 2022. The goals deal with: Providing society the information it needs regarding the amount and quality of water in all components of the water cycle at high temporal and spatial resolution, nationwide; Advancing our understanding of processes that determine water availability; Predicting changes in the quantity and quality of water resources in response to changing climate, population, land use, and management scenarios; Anticipating and responding to water-related emergencies and conflicts; and Delivering timely hydrologic data, analyses, and decision-support tools seamlessly across the Nation to support water-resource decisions. Scientific information produced on water resources would be without value if it were not communicated to society in a fashion that can inform decisions and actions. Therefore, the chapter following the goals describes how the USGS should inform, involve, and educate society about the science it produces. This includes discussions on local outreach and the use of social media for effective communication. This report concludes with a chapter devoted to the crosscutting science issues of the Water Mission Area with the other USGS Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals, Environmental Health Science, and Natural Hazards. Not one of these Mission Areas stands alone—all must work together and integrate their actions to fulfill the USGS science mission for the future. This final chapter identifies the important linkages that must be realized and maintained for this integration to occur.

Open-File Report

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada

Seismic experiment ross ice shelf 1990/91: Characteristics of the seismic reflection data

The Transantarctic Mountains, with a length of 3000-3500 km and elevations of up to 4500 m, are one of the major Cenozoic mountain ranges in the world and are by far the most striking example of rift-shoulder mountains. Over the 1990-1991 austral summer Seismic Experiment Ross Ice Shelf (SERIS) was carried out across the Transantarctic Mountain front, between latitudes 82 degrees to 83 degrees S, in order to investigate the transition zone between the rifted area of the Ross Embayment and the uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. This experiment involved a 140 km long seismic reflection profile together with a 96 km long coincident wide-angle reflection/refraction profile. Gravity and relative elevation (using barometric pressure) were also measured along the profile. The primary purpose was to examine the boundary between the rift system and the uplifted rift margin (represented by the Transantarctic Mountains) using modern multi-channel crustal reflection/refraction techniques. The results provide insight into crustal structure across the plate boundary. SERIS also represented one of the first large-scale and modern multi-channel seismic experiments in the remote interior of Antarctica. As such, the project was designed to test different seismic acquisition techniques which will be involved in future seismic exploration of the continent. This report describes the results from the analysis of the acquisition tests as well as detailing some of the characteristics of the reflection seismic data. (auths.)

Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences Science

Agencies collaborate, develop a cyanobacteria assessment network

Cyanobacteria are a genetically diverse group of photosynthetic microorganisms that occupy a broad range of habitats on land and water all over the world. They release toxins that can cause lung and skin irritation, alter the taste and odor of potable water, and cause human and animal illness. Cyanobacteria blooms occur worldwide, and climate change may increase the frequency, duration, and extent of these bloom events. Rapid detection of potentially harmful blooms is essential to protect humans and animals from exposure. Information about potential for exposure, such as bloom duration, frequency, and extent, is especially critical for developing environmental management decisions during periods of limited resources and funding. The National Research Council (NRC) report Exposure Science in the 21st Century suggested that effectively assessing and mitigating exposures requires techniques for rapid measurement of a stressor, such as an algal bloom, across diverse geographic, temporal, and biologic scales (e.g., various bloom concentrations) and an enhanced infrastructure to address threats [ NRC , 2012]. The report specifically calls for approaches that use diverse information, such as satellite remote sensing, to identify and understand exposures that may pose a threat to ecosystems or human health. A collaborative effort integrates the work of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide an approach for using satellite ocean color capabilities in U.S. fresh and brackish water quality management decisions. The overarching goal of this collaborative project is to detect and quantify cyanobacteria blooms using satellite data records in order to support the environmental management and public use of U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Satellite remote sensing tools may enable policy makers and environmental managers to assess the sustainability of watershed ecosystems and the services they provide, now and in the future. Satellite technology allows us to develop early-warning indicators of cyanobacteria blooms at the local scale while maintaining continuous national coverage.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

U.S. Geological Survey water science strategy—Observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the Nation

Executive Summary This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history.

Circular

Biogeographical profiles of shorebird migration in midcontinental North America

The biogeographic information described here will help identify the uniqueness of different regions of the plains to migrating shorebirds. Although shorebirds migrating along Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas are capable of long jumps between refueling stops, there is evidence that some species move short rather than long distances between refueling sites. Maps of distribution patterns and chronology accounts can lend insight towards understanding migration strategies of the different shorebird species. This report focuses on the distribution patterns of enroute migrants that refuel in interior wetlands during migration. We provide information on the spatial and temporal occurrence and habitat requirements for individual species and groups of species with the intent that this information be used in guiding management efforts.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Montana, Wyoming,

Developing an Analytical Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making - Proceedings of a Workshop

The analytical framework for understanding ecosystem services in conservation, resource management, and development decisions is multidisciplinary, encompassing a combination of the natural and social sciences. This report summarizes a workshop on 'Developing an Analytical Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' which focused on the analytical process and on identifying research priorities for assessing ecosystem services, their production and use, their spatial and temporal characteristics, their relationship with natural systems, and their interdependencies. Attendees discussed research directions and solutions to key challenges in developing the analytical framework. The discussion was divided into two sessions: (1) the measurement framework: quantities and values, and (2) the spatial framework: mapping and spatial relationships. This workshop was the second of three preconference workshops associated with ACES 2008 (A Conference on Ecosystem Services): Using Science for Decision Making in Dynamic Systems. These three workshops were designed to explore the ACES 2008 theme on decision making and how the concept of ecosystem services can be more effectively incorporated into conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions. Preconference workshop 1, 'Developing a Vision: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' was held on April 15, 2008, in Cambridge, MA. In preconference workshop 1, participants addressed what would have to happen to make ecosystem services be used more routinely and effectively in conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions, and they identified some key challenges in developing the analytical framework. Preconference workshop 3, 'Developing an Institutional Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' was held on October 30, 2008, in Albuquerque, NM; participants examined the relationship between the institutional framework and the use of ecosystem services in decision making.

Open-File Report

A metapopulation strategy to support long term conservation of genetic diversity in Department of the Interior bison

Once numbering in the tens of millions, plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) were nearly driven to extinction with only a few hundred individuals remaining by the late 19th century. Plains bison have since recovered to approximately 20,000 animals managed in conservation herds throughout North America, yet substantial challenges to their recovery remain. The Department of the Interior (DOI) is working with diverse partners to steward approximately 11,000 bison in 18 conservation herds across 12 states. Most herds exist in areas without native predators, and removals are required to keep herd sizes at or below carrying capacity. The loss of genetic diversity within bison, and the fact that most DOI herds are relatively small and isolated from each other with no opportunity for natural gene flow, raises concerns about maintaining genetic diversity over the long term. Connecting populations through gene flow (i.e., creating a metapopulation) can minimize loss of genetic diversity, both within and across populations. Management of DOI bison conservation herds has historically varied across bureaus and conservation units. Adopting a national perspective on bison conservation was identified as a priority in the 2008 Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative (BCI). The concept of metapopulation management as a potential tool to maximize the conservation of genetic diversity among DOI herds was first described in this 2008 Initiative and was specifically encouraged in the 2010 DOI Bison Conservation Genetics Workshop report (Dratch and Gogan 2010). In the 2020 BCI, the DOI re-affirmed its commitment to conserving bison as native, North American wildlife. This document establishes a framework for a nationally coordinated strategy for bison managed by the DOI to support the genetic conservation goals outlined in the 2020 BCI. This is a decisionmaking framework that guides managers through the process of determining when and how to consider translocations. Decisions and actions within the framework are informed by analysis and interpretation of data housed in an integrated, relational database that will be initially populated with the most current data and updated annually thereafter. It provides science-based guidance on how to conserve DOI bison genetic diversity through strategic translocations, while also considering cattle introgression and bison health. We illustrate how this Strategy can be used to guide the establishment of new conservation herds and discuss what it means to be a DOI partner. Finally, this is intended to be used as a living document that will evolve as needs and technologies change.

Science Report

Mississippi/Alabama pinnacle trend ecosystem monitoring Final Synthesis Report

This Final Synthesis Report summarizes a four-year program to characterize and monitor carbonate mounds on the Mississippi/Alabama outer continental shelf (OCS). The study area is shown in Fig.ES.1. The study was conducted by Continental Shelf Associates, Inc. and the Geochemical and Environmental Research Group (GERG) of Texas A&M University (TAMU), for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Biological Resources Division.

Biological Science Report

The Altay falcon: Origin, morphology and distribution

The systematic position of the Altay falcon (Falco altaicus lorenzi) is perhaps the most enigmatic question lingering in falcon taxonomy. First reported to science in 1811, it has been treated as a race of the gyrfalcon (F. rusticolus), as a race of the saker (F. cherrug), as two separate species (F. lorenzi and F. altaicus), and as one to three color morphs of either the saker or the gyrfalcon. Ironically, two or even more of these explanations may be correct. Of 53 specimens examined, at least two are misidentified gyrfalcons, a score I dismiss as typical sakers, but a sizeable group (N = 34) is retained as representing what I consider to be the true Altay falcon type. Three adult color morphs exist: red, brown and grey. The red-backed morph closely resembles some eastern sakers. The chocolate morph resembles the black gyrfalcon from Labrador. The grey morph resembles the grey morph of the gyrfalcon. Ecological, geographical and morphological information contribute to the conclusion that this core group represents a gyrfalcon-saker hybrid that is very likely being swamped into obscurity through back crosses with the saker. The breeding range reported herein (Altay-Sayan Mountains) is greatly contracted from that previously reported. The true identify of the Altay falcon will be resolved by molecular genetics.

Book chapter

Mass eruption rate, column height, and duration dataset for volcanic eruptions

This report describes a dataset assembled and curated as part of a project funded by the Earthquake Commission Biennial Grant 20781, Towards real-time probabilistic ash deposition forecasting for Aotearoa New Zealand. This dataset compiles measured, estimated, and calculated values for volcanic eruption mass eruption rates, column heights, and durations. Data comes from 213 eruptions, with about a third from New Zealand volcanoes. 65% of eruptions have a value for all three parameters. Eruptions are further classified according to magma and eruption type to prepare for further analysis. This dataset will be used to develop prior probability density functions (PDFs) for mass eruption rate (MER), column height, and duration to quantify uncertainty in volcanological inputs with the aim of production of real-time probabilistic ashfall forecasts.

GNS Science Report

Wetland restoration in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America: A literature review

The landscape of the prairie pothole region (PPR), a grassland biome of the northern U.S. Great Plains and parts of Canada, has been greatly altered by land use since the 1800's. Conversion of grassland to cropland and drainage of wetlands has resulted in wetland losses of up to 90% in some areas. Besides the area providing critical habitat to various wildlife, breeding waterfowl, and migratory birds, its seasonal wetlands support diverse plant and invertebrate communities, play a role in flood attenuation, act as traps for nutrients. store and recharge groundwater. and are valued recreational lands. Most of the restoration of prairie potholes has only occurred since the 1980's, with few follow-up studies performed and little postrestoration monitoring of these restorations. Monitoring and research of wetland restoration in the PPR is less common relative to the number of postrestoration studies done on other wetland types in the United States. This report is a synthesis of current knowledge of restored prairie pothole wetlands and makes suggestions for future wetland restoration-related research. In order to determine the benefits of restored wetlands, it is important to better understand how closely restored wetlands in the PPR resemble their natural analogues in terms of functions and values. The report categorizes PPR literature into five general sections: wildlife, vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and physical and chemical characteristics of restored wetlands. Each of these five sections has a summary of research and is divided into two parts: an overview of research and findings and regional case studies. Most PPR studies have focused on bird and plant communities, whereas research done on the functions of restored wetlands and studies concerning less visible fauna and physical and chemical characteristics are scarce. In addition, there is a scarcity of research in the western and northern portions or the PPR; most studio to date have been conducted in Iowa. Minnesota, or South Dakota. Key Words: wetland restoration, prairie pothole region, PPR, literature review, wetland functions and values. postrestoration studies

Biological Science Report

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia

A Chronosequence Feasibility Assessment of Emergency Fire Rehabilitation Records within the Intermountain Western United States - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program - Project 08-S-08

Department of the Interior (DOI) bureaus have invested heavily (for example, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) spent more than $60 million in fiscal year 2007) in seeding vegetation for emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation of non-forested arid lands over the past 10 years. The primary objectives of these seedings commonly are to (1) reduce the post-fire dominance of non-native annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and red brome (Bromus rubens); (2) minimize the probability of recurrent fire; and (3) ultimately produce desirable vegetation characteristics (for example, ability to recover following disturbance [resilience], resistance to invasive species, and a capacity to support a diverse flora and fauna). Although these projects historically have been monitored to varying extents, land managers currently lack scientific evidence to verify whether seeding arid and semiarid lands achieves desired objectives. Given the amount of resources dedicated to post-fire seeding projects, a synthesis of information determining the factors that result in successful treatments is critically needed. Although results of recently established experiments and monitoring projects eventually will provide useful insights for the future direction of emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation programs, a chronosequence approach evaluating emergency stabilization and burned area rehabilitation treatments (both referenced hereafter as ESR treatments) over the past 30 years could provide a comprehensive assessment of treatment success across a range of regional environmental gradients. By randomly selecting a statistically robust sample from the population of historic ESR treatments in the Intermountain West, this chronosequence approach would have inference for most ecological sites in this region. The goal of this feasibility study was to compile and examine historic ESR records from BLM field offices across the Intermountain West to determine whether sufficient documentation existed for a future field-based chronosequence project. We collected ESR records and data at nine BLM field offices in four States (Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah) and examined the utility of these data for the development of a chronosequence study of post-fire seeding treatments from multiple sites and different ages (since seeding) throughout the Intermountain West. We collected records from 730 post-fire seeding projects with 1,238 individual seeding treatments. Records from each project ranged from minimal reporting of the project's occurrence to detailed documentation of planning, implementation, and monitoring. Of these 1,238 projects, we identified 468 (38 percent) that could potentially be used to implement a field-based chronosequence study. There were 206 ground-seeding treatments and 262 aerial-seeding treatments within this initial population, not including hand plantings. We also located a considerable number of additional records from other potential field offices that would be available for the chronosequence study but have yet to be compiled for this feasibility report. There are a number of potential challenges involved in going forward with a field-based chronosequence study derived from data collected at these nine BLM offices. One challenge is that not all seed mixtures in ESR project files have on-the-ground confirmation about what was sown or rates of application. Most projects, particularly records before 2000, just list the planned or purchased seed mixtures. Although this could potentially bias assessments of factors influencing establishment rates of individual species for treatments conducted before 2000, a chronosequence study would not be intended to assess success solely at the species-level. Treatment success would be evaluated based on the establishment of healthy vegetation communities, such as the abundance and density of perennial species, regardless of their lifeforms (grasses, fo

Open-File Report

Environmental DNA pilot monitoring program for invasive species and biodiversity assessments on Santa Cruz Island: Interim report, September 2025

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Southern California Coastal Water Research Project supported Channel Islands National Park, The Nature Conservancy’s (TNC) Santa Cruz Island Preserve, and University of California San Diego (UCSD) researchers in using environmental DNA sampling to monitor for invasive Argentine ant ( Linepithema humile ) and to describe spatial biodiversity patterns in a freshwater stream on Santa Cruz Island that is colloquially known as Cañada del Puerto Creek (hydrologic unit code 12 number 180600140201). An eDNA autosampler was deployed May 27–June 02, 2025, which filtered and preserved four 2-L water samples every 12 hours (n = 48 samples). These samples were extracted by USGS and shipped to UCSD for targeted eDNA analyses of Argentine ant. Environmental DNA sampling kits were used to filter and preserve water samples at four sites along the creek spanning ~ 5 km of stream distance. Six 1-L samples were collected at each site May 27–28 and samples were analyzed for eDNA metabarcoding using a comprehensive panel, which encompasses species across the tree of life. In these samples, eDNA from 2,134 unique taxa spanning 30 taxonomic groups (e.g., amoebas, insects, plants) were found. These sampling efforts demonstrated how eDNA autonomous and manual sampling approaches can be applied by National Park Service, TNC, and partners at scale to provide otherwise difficult and expensive to acquire information about biological threats and biodiversity.

California

Physical setting: Chapter 1 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

Lisbon Bottom consists of approximately 875 ha of river bottom along the Missouri River in Howard County, Missouri, from approximately river mile (RM) 213 to RM 219. As used in this report, the Lisbon Bottom area also includes the main channel of the Missouri River adjacent to the Lisbon Bottom and portions of the adjacent flood plain in Saline County, Missouri. Before regulation and structuring of the Missouri River, riverine areas like Lisbon Bottom were shifting mosaics of dynamic habitat patches that were created and maintained by hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Flow regulation, navigation structures, and bank-stabilization projects isolated Lisbon Bottom from the river by decreasing the magnitude and frequency with which hydrologic and geomorphic processes could alter habitat characteristics. The flood of 1993 breached agricultural levees around Lisbon Bottom, thereby reestablishing a connection to the Missouri River. Although still affected by flow regulation and the requirement to maintain navigation in the main channel, Lisbon Bottom presents the opportunity to study ecosystem processes and dynamic geomorphology in a setting that more closely mimics the natural riverine system than any other site on the navigable Lower Missouri River. The purpose of this chapter is to describe the physical setting and processes that structure the riverine ecosystem of Lisbon Bottom and similar areas of the Lower Missouri River. The description compiles available information on temporal and spatial changes at the site, including the history of channel changes and hydrology.

Missouri

A review of the effects of climate change on visitor use in US public lands and waters

Climate change is affecting recreational visitor use in U.S. public lands and waters, causing changes to visitation levels, timing of trips, activity participation, and visitor safety. This report reviews the literature on how climate change is influencing visitor use in the United States and how visitor use may be affected in the future. Our goal is to provide the current state of the literature for managers of public lands and waters and provide foundational information for the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment methodology for visitor use within the National Park Service (that may be applicable to other federal lands and waters). Specifically, we investigate how seven different climate change factors may affect visitor use on public lands and waters. These factors consist of increasing temperatures; flooding, drought, and increased variability of precipitation; decreasing snowpack and earlier spring runoff; wildfires, smoke, and air quality; coastal hazards: hurricanes and sea level rise; harmful algal blooms (HABs); and zoonotic and vector-borne disease. The current research indicates that these factors are already affecting visitors to public lands and waters and continued effects in the future are likely as the climate warms. Additionally, we summarize existing research on how visitors to U.S. public lands and waters are adapting to climate change. Throughout the review, we note where there are substantial gaps in the literature and more research would help managers respond to the effects of climate change on visitor use.

Science Report

Pacific island landbird monitoring report, Kalaupapa National Historical Park, 2021

In 2021, landbird surveys were conducted at Kalaupapa National Historical Park on the island of Molokaʻi to assess changes in species composition, distribution, and population densities since 2005. Point-transect distance sampling surveys were conducted on six transects at 50 landbird monitoring stations within an 1,834-hectare area. A total of nine landbird species were detected, with the ʻApapane ( Himatione sanguinea ) the only endemic Hawaiian species detected. Sufficient detections of six species allowed for population density and abundance estimates, which were compared to 2005 estimates using a two-sample z-test. The abundance of ʻApapane declined by 57% to 2,476 ± 729 (SE) birds in 2021 compared to 2005. Population densities of the House Finch ( Haemorhous mexicanus ), Japanese Bush Warbler ( Horornis diphone ), Warbling White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), and White-rumped Shama ( Copsychus malabaricus ) were also lower in 2021 than in 2005, but comparisons were inconclusive. Since 2005, the Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ) irrupted within the survey area to an estimated abundance of 11,088 ± 1,208 birds. The Warbling White-eye was the most abundant species, with an estimated 101,724 ± 11,692 birds. Surveyors failed to detect the Hawaiʻi ʻAmakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ), which has become increasingly rare on Molokaʻi. The federally threatened ʻIʻiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ) was last seen on Molokaʻi in 2010, further raising concerns about its potential extirpation. The Olomaʻo ( Myadestes lanaiensis ), an endemic thrush, has not been detected since 1980 and is likely extinct. These findings show the ongoing shift toward non-native bird communities and highlight the challenges of conserving native forest birds amidst widespread avian malaria transmission, introduced predators, and extensive habitat degradation.

Hawaii