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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Geomorphic and sedimentary effects of modern climate change: Current and anticipated future conditions in the western United States

Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long‐lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment‐routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate‐driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western U.S. We find evidence for recent climate‐driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to non‐climatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2020

Hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is a technique that is used for extracting petroleum resources from impermeable host rocks. In this process, fluid injected under high pressure causes fractures to propagate. This technique has been transformative for the hydrocarbon industry, unlocking otherwise stranded resources; however, environmental concerns make HF controversial. One concern is HF‐induced seismicity, since fluids driven under high pressure also have the potential to reactivate faults. Controversy has inevitably followed these HF‐induced earthquakes, with economic and human losses from ground shaking at one extreme and moratoriums on resource development at the other. Here, we review the state of knowledge of this category of induced seismicity. We first cover essential background information on HF along with an overview of published induced earthquake cases to date. Expanding on this, we synthesize the common themes and interpret the origin of these commonalities, which include recurrent earthquake swarms, proximity to well bore, rapid response to stimulation, and a paucity of reported cases. Next, we discuss the unanswered questions that naturally arise from these commonalities, leading to potential research themes: consistent recognition of cases, proposed triggering mechanisms, geologically susceptible conditions, identification of operational controls, effective mitigation efforts, and science‐informed regulatory management. HF‐induced seismicity provides a unique opportunity to better understand and manage earthquake rupture processes; overall, understanding HF‐induced earthquakes is important in order to avoid extreme reactions in either direction.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2024

Dynamics, monitoring and forecasting of tephra in the atmosphere

Explosive volcanic eruptions inject hot mixtures of solid particles (tephra) and gasses into the atmosphere. Entraining ambient air, these mixtures can form plumes rising tens of kilometers until they spread laterally, forming umbrella clouds. While the largest clasts tend to settle in proximity to the volcano, the smallest fragments, commonly referred to as ash (≤2 mm in diameter), can be transported over long distances, forming volcanic clouds. Tephra plumes and clouds pose significant hazards to human society, affecting infrastructure, and human health through deposition on the ground or airborne suspension at low altitudes. Additionally, volcanic clouds are a threat to aviation, during both high-risk actions such as take-off and landing and at standard cruising altitudes. The ability to monitor and forecast tephra plumes and clouds is fundamental to mitigate the hazard associated with explosive eruptions. To that end, various monitoring techniques, ranging from ground-based instruments to sensors on-board satellites, and forecasting strategies, based on running numerical models to track the position of volcanic clouds, are efficiently employed. However, some limitations still exist, mainly due to the high unpredictability and variability of explosive eruptions, as well as the multiphase and complex nature of volcanic plumes. In the next decades, advances in monitoring and computational capabilities are expected to address these limitations and significantly improve the mitigation of the risk associated with tephra plumes and clouds.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2024

Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: Data sources, models, and future prospects

Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Review of Geophysics↗
USGS2024

Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2026

The United States Magnetotelluric Array and the National Impedance Map

The United States Magnetotelluric Array (USMTArray) data set, collected in the years 2006–2024, consists of more than 1,700 long-period magnetotelluric stations covering the entirety of the contiguous United States on a quasi-regular 70 km grid. Funding across multiple federal agencies was critical to sustaining this effort to its completion. Important components of the project included active guidance and participation from the MT community, the open and timely availability of all data, and the application of consistent instrumentation and robust data processing. Together with parallel advancement in the development of publicly available three-dimensional (3D) inversion codes, the USMTArray has revitalized the US magnetotelluric community and increased the visibility of magnetotellurics within the Earth-science community. Taken as a whole, these data are visualized as the National Impedance Map, which, together with a 3D synthesis conductivity model of the nation, reveals the electrical architecture of the contiguous US. USMTArray data are used by researchers worldwide for fundamental and applied studies, including investigations of continental architecture and evolution, estimation of hazards to critical infrastructure due to geomagnetic storms, and assessment of the nation's undiscovered geothermal and mineral resources. We here review the history and development of the project, discuss the challenges and successes in its execution, present the National Impedance Map and synthesis conductivity model, and highlight the breadth of research stemming from this rich data set.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2010

Observations at convergent margins concerning sediment subduction, subduction erosion, and the growth of continental crust

At ocean margins where two plates converge, the oceanic plate sinks or is subducted beneath an upper one topped by a layer of terrestrial crust. This crust is constructed of continental or island arc material. The subduction process either builds juvenile masses of terrestrial crust through arc volcanism or new areas of crust through the piling up of accretionary masses (prisms) of sedimentary deposits and fragments of thicker crustal bodies scraped off the subducting lower plate. At convergent margins, terrestrial material can also bypass the accretionary prism as a result of sediment subduction, and terrestrial matter can be removed from the upper plate by processes of subduction erosion. Sediment subduction occurs where sediment remains attached to the subducting oceanic plate and underthrusts the seaward position of the upper plate's resistive buttress (backstop) of consolidated sediment and rock. Sediment subduction occurs at two types of convergent margins: type 1 margins where accretionary prisms form and type 2 margins where little net accretion takes place. At type 2 margins (∼19,000 km in global length), effectively all incoming sediment is subducted beneath the massif of basement or framework rocks forming the landward trench slope. At accreting or type 1 margins, sediment subduction begins at the seaward position of an active buttress of consolidated accretionary material that accumulated in front of a starting or core buttress of framework rocks. Where small-to-medium-sized prisms have formed (∼16,300 km), approximately 20% of the incoming sediment is skimmed off a detachment surface or decollement and frontally accreted to the active buttress. The remaining 80% subducts beneath the buttress and may either underplate older parts of the frontal body or bypass the prism entirely and underthrust the leading edge of the margin's rock framework. At margins bordered by large prisms (∼8,200 km), roughly 70% of the incoming trench floor section is subducted beneath the frontal accretionary body and its active buttress. In rounded figures the contemporary rate of solid-volume sediment subduction at convergent ocean margins (∼43,500 km) is calculated to be 1.5 km³/yr. Correcting type 1 margins for high rates of terrigenous seafloor sedimentation during the past 30 m.y. or so sets the long-term rate of sediment subduction at 1.0 km³/yr. The bulk of the subducted material is derived directly or indirectly from continental denudation. Interstitial water currently expulsed from accreted and deeply subducted sediment and recycled to the ocean basins is estimated at 0.9 km³/yr. The thinning and truncation caused by subduction erosion of the margin's framework rock and overlying sedimentary deposits have been demonstrated at many convergent margins but only off northern Japan, central Peru, and northern Chile has sufficient information been collected to determine average or long-term rates, which range from 25 to 50 km³/m.y. per kilometer of margin. A conservative long-term rate applicable to many sectors of convergent margins is 30 km³/km/m.y. If applied to the length of type 2 margins, subduction erosion removes and transports approximately 0.6 km³/yr of upper plate material to greater depths. At various places, subduction erosion also affects sectors of type 1 margins bordered by small- to medium-sized accretionary prisms (for example, Japan and Peru), thus increasing the global rate by possibly 0.5 km³/yr to a total of 1.1 km³/yr. Little information is available to assess subduction erosion at margins bordered by large accretionary prisms. Mass balance calculations allow assessments to be made of the amount of subducted sediment that bypasses the prism and underthrusts the margin's rock framework. This subcrustally subducted sediment is estimated at 0.7 km³/yr. Combined with the range of terrestrial matter removed from the margin's rock framework by subduction erosion, the global volume of subcrustally subducted material is estimated to range from 1.3 to 1.8 km³/yr. Subcrustally subducted material is either returned to the terrestrial crust by arc-related igneous processes or crustal underplating or is lost from the crust by mantle absorption. Geochemical and isotopic data support the notion that upper mantle melting returns only a small percent of the subducted material to the terrestrial crust as arc igneous rocks. Limited areal exposures of terrestrial rocks metamorphosed at deep (>20–30 km) subcrustal pressures and temperatures imply that only a small fraction of subducted material is reattached via deep crustal underplating. Possibly, therefore much of the subducted terrestrial material is recycled to the mantle at a rate near 1.6 km³/yr, which is effectively equivalent to the commonly estimated rate at which the mantle adds juvenile igneous material to the Earth's layer of terrestrial rock.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Gas hydrates—Geological perspective and global change

Natural gas hydrates occur worldwide in polar regions, normally associated with onshore and offshore permafrost, and in sediment of outer continental and insular margins. The total amount of methane in gas hydrates likely exceeds 10 19 g of methane carbon. Three aspects of gas hydrates are important: their fossil fuel resource potential, their role as a submarine geohazard, and their effects on global climate change. Because gas hydrates represent a large amount of methane within 2000 m of the Earth's surface, they are considered to be an unconventional, unproven source of fossil fuel. Because gas hydrates are metastable, changes of pressure and temperature affect their stability. Destabilized gas hydrates beneath the seafloor lead to geologic hazards such as submarine slumps and slides, examples of which are found worldwide. Destabilized gas hydrates may also affect climate through the release of methane, a “greenhouse” gas, which may enhance global warming and be a factor in global climate change.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2010

Turbidite systems: State of the art and future directions

The study of turbidite systems covering a wide range of physical scales has led to confus ion regarding the use of certain key terms and hence a breakdown in communication between workers involved in turbidite research. There are three fundamentally different scales and types of observations derived from the study of outcrop data (ancient systems), high-resolution seismic reflection and side scan sonar data (modern systems), and multichannel seismic reflection data (modern and older buried systems). Despite the variability of scale the same terms are used to describe features that may have little in common. Consequently, turbidite system terminology has become imprecise and even misleading in some cases, thus providing impediments to developing useful predictive models for processes, depositional environments, and lateral and vertical distribution of sand bodies within turbidite systems. To address this concern, we review the principal elements critical to deepwater systems: slump scars, submarine canyons, channels, channel fill deposits, overbank deposits, and lobes and discuss some of their recognition criteria with each different type of data base. Local and regional tectonic setting, relative sea level variations, and bottom current activity are probably the main factors that control size, external geometry, internal stratal configuration, and facies characteristics of both modern and ancient turbidite systems. These factors ultimately control the timing and bounding characteristics between stages of growth of deepwater systems. If comparison of elements from different turbidite deposits using various data types is carried out at similar physical and temporal scales, predictive models eventually may be improved.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Deep-crustal seismology of continental margins

This review discusses results from recent seismic experiments at continental margins conducted by U.S. investigators as well as those by non-U. S. investigators necessary to place the results of U.S. workers into context. Continental margins may be characterized as either rifted, transform, or convergent. Rifted (or passive) margins form where continents are torn apart during continental drift. Transform margins accommodate transform plate motions along strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas fault. At convergent margins oceanic crust is being thrust beneath (or subducted under) the continental crust. All three types of margins are found in North America.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Recent advances in understanding the interaction of groundwater and surface water

The most common image of the interaction of groundwater and surface water is that of the interaction of streams with a contiguous alluvial aquifer. This type of system has been the focus of study for more than 100 years, from the work of Boussinesq (1877) to the present, and stream-aquifer interaction continues to be the most common topic of papers discussing the interaction of groundwater and surface water. However, groundwater and surface water interact in a wide variety of landscapes from alpine to coastal. Within these landscapes, ground-water systems range in scale from local to regional, and the types of surface water include streams, lakes, wetlands, and oceans. Given the broad spectrum of the topic of groundwater and surface water interaction, an overview of studies of this topic could be organized according to surface water type, landscape type, scale of hydrologic systems, or field and analytical methods. All these factors are discussed, but this paper is organized according to landscape type because of the great increase in studies of the interaction of groundwater and surface water in landscapes other than riverine systems in the last 15 years. Furthermore, discussing studies by landscape type facilitates comparison of methods and results from different geologic and climatic settings. The general landscapes discussed are mountain terrane, riverine systems, coastal terrane, hummocky terrane, and karst terrane.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Modeling of multiphase multicontaminant transport in the subsurface

This review addresses modeling of subsurface hydrological systems in which contaminants are transported in more than one fluid phase. The primary focus is on problems involving nonaqueous-phase liquids (NAPLs), a dynamic gas phase, or both, so that the unsaturated and saturated zones are both discussed. Basic research in simpler settings is included if it develops concepts that could be applied in modeling of such problems. Recent developments in practical models are reviewed, along with experimental work and theoretical issues related to the formulation of mathematical models. It will be seen that the extent of validity of the local equilibrium assumption (LEA) for component partitioning among phases is a major question influencing the direction of these formulations. Also emphasized are upscaling to macroscopic and grid lengths, and the choice and coupling of primary variables in multicomponent systems. Relations to and possible use of developments in petroleum reservoir simulation are discussed.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Recent advances in statistical methods for the estimation of sediment and nutrient transport in rivers

This paper reviews advances in methods for estimating fluvial transport of suspended sediment and nutrients. Research from the past four years, mostly dealing with estimating monthly and annual loads, is emphasized. However, because this topic has not appeared in previous IUGG reports, some research prior to 1990 is included. The motivation for studying sediment transport has shifted during the past few decades. In addition to its role in filling reservoirs and channels, sediment is increasingly recognized as an important part of fluvial ecosystems and estuarine wetlands. Many groups want information about sediment transport [ Bollman , 1992]: Scientists trying to understand benthic biology and catchment hydrology; citizens and policy-makers concerned about environmental impacts (e.g. impacts of logging [ Beschta , 1978] or snow-fences [ Sturges , 1992]); government regulators considering the effectiveness of programs to protect in-stream habitat and downstream waterbodies; and resource managers seeking to restore wetlands.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Interslab earthquakes and phase changes in subducting lithosphere

At 0033 UT on 9 June 1994, a great deep earthquake occurred 635 km beneath the Amazonian rain forest of northern Bolivia. The deep rupture of this record-setting magnitude 8.3 shock lasted about a minute [Harvard University Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue]. The seismic strain release of this single event, as indicated by its seismic moment, was greater than the total strain release for all deep earthquakes in the Harvard CMT catalogue during the previous 17 years of its coverage of global seismicity. Incredibly, ground motion was felt as far north as Seattle, Washington and Toronto, Canada. Evidently, it occurred within the subducting Nazca plate that is descending beneath South America. This earthquake reminds us of the sometimes grand scale of deep seismic failure and of the need to consider more closely the physical processes that accompany slab descent and, in particular, how such earthquakes may reflect the inner workings of slabs.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Magnetic records of climate change

Sediments deposited on the sea floor, on lake bottoms, as well as on land as accumulations of windblown silt (loess) and as ancient soils (paleosols) formed in the loess possess many different properties that record past changes in climate. Geologically recoverable information on paleoclimate includes changes in global temperature as it may affect global ice volume and thus temperature of sea water, net precipitation, storm intensity (wind speed) and frequency, as well as wind direction. Such information further contributes to interpretations about changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. As such, the understanding of past climatic changes can provide baselines of natural climatic fluctuations as related to those that may be induced or influenced by human activities.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Recent advances in simulation-optimization groundwater management modeling

In recent years, the aquifer simulation model has been combined with techniques of optimization to address important groundwater management problems. The combined simulation and optimization model accounts for the complex behavior of the groundwater system and identifies the best management strategy under consideration of the management objectives and constraints. Simulation-optimization groundwater management models have been developed for a variety of applications, such as restoration of contaminated groundwater, control of aquifer hydraulics, allocation of ground and surface water resources, and evaluation of groundwater policies [see reviews by Gorelick , 1983, 1990; Yeh , 1992; Ahlfeld and Heidari , 1994; Bredehoeft et al , 1994]. Gorelick [1983] divides groundwater management models into three categories: groundwater hydraulic management, groundwater quality management, and groundwater policy evaluation and allocation. This review focuses in detail on the recent advances made in groundwater hydraulic and groundwater quality management modeling, which encompasses most of the aquifer management work done in the past four years. For a review of recent research in groundwater policy evaluation and allocation, see Bredehoeft et al . [1994].

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Earthquake geodesy and hazard monitoring

Catastrophic events such as major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions result when the earth's crust fails in response to accumulated deformation. The accumulation of deformation results from ongoing processes such as aseismic deformation of subcrustal rock associated with relative plate motions, or the ascent of magma through a volcanic plumbing system. Geodetic measurements document the crustal deformation leading to these failures and the deformation resulting from them, providing unique insight into the physical processes involved. By virtue of the space and time domains of ground deformation detected with geodetic measurements, geodesy is a useful tool in monitoring active tectonic and volcanic regimes. For a wide range of natural events including earthquakes, aseismic fault motions, and volcanic events, geodetic measurements constrain physical models of the processes that cause such events. Because these geodetic studies probe the underlying processes leading to and culminating in catastrophic natural events, many such studies are directly applicable to earthquake and volcano hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2012

Volcano seismology, hazards assessment

The last few years have seen several impressive examples of seismic monitoring at volcanoes to provide warnings that have saved lives and property. Changes in the rates and character of volcanic earthquakes provided precursory signs to explosive eruptions of moderate size at Redoubt volcano (Alaska), Mount Unzen (Japan), Mount Spurr (Alaska), and Rabaul caldera (Papua New Guinea), as well as the large eruption at Mount Pinatubo (Philippines). In all these cases, information was successfully communicated and put to practical use through broadcasts of public warnings prior to the eruptions and evacuations were initiated for the volcanoes located in populated areas. At Mount Pinatubo, probably thousands and possibly tens of thousands of lives were saved.

Reviews of Geophysics↗