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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS1996

Elk response to the La Mesa fire and current status in the Jemez Mountains

Faunal remains in local archeological sites and historic information suggest that elk populations in the Jemez Mountains were low from ca. 1200 A.D. through ca. 1900 A.D., when they were extirpated from this region. Elk were reintroduced to the Jemez country in 1948 and 1964- 1965, and their population apparently grew exponentially, reaching 1000 animals in the 1970's and about 7000 by 1991. Elk populations in Bandelier National Monument and adjoining areas increased rapidly after the 1977 La Mesa Fire. Winter use by elk in the La Mesa Fire area, centered on Bandelier, grew from about 100 animals in .1978 to around 1500 elk by 1992. The dramatic increase in the Bandelier elk herd (an annual growth rate of 21.3% and a 3.6 year population doubling time) was due in part to the creation of about 6000 hectares of grassy winter range in and around the park by the La Mesa Fire. Some of this local population increase reflects concentration of elk into this favorable wintering habitat from surrounding portions of the Jemez Mountains. Existing data are inadequate to determine whether elk populations are still growing rapidly in the Jemez Mountains. While annual aerial surveys since 1990 in Bandelier reveal no clear population trend, a variety of observations demonstrate increasing elk use of lower elevation areas. Negative resource impacts from today's high elk populations are beginning to be widely noted across the Jemez Mountains, especially in high-use portions of the Bandelier National Monument area. Affected resources range from plant communities to soils and even archeological sites. Given the large uncertainties associated with the current data on elk populations, care should be taken to avoid further population increases until the resource impacts of this new phenomenon (large numbers of elk) can be identified, desirable population levels identified (based to a significant degree upon ecological information and resource carrying capacities, as well as social considerations), and appropriate cooperative management strategies implemented.

General Technical Report↗
USGS1989

The shiny cowbird Molothrus bonariensis in the West Indian region--Biogeographical and ecological implications

The shiny cowbird (Molthrus bonariensis), an avian brood parasite, is endemic to South America, Trinidad, and Tobago, but during the last 100 years the species has spread through the West Indies. Successful colonization by the shiny cowbird depends on the availablitiy of suitable habitats and host species. As forest fragmentation increases in the West Indies, new hosts, particularly forest species, will be parasitied. Forest fragmentation creates small patches of forests surrounded by open habitat and increases the portion of forest habitat available to cowbirds.

Book chapter↗
USGS1987

Geochemical survey maps of the wildernesses and roadless areas in the White Mountains National Forest, Coos, Grafton, and Carroll counties, New Hampshire

The Wilderness Act (Public Law 88-577, September 3, 1964) and related acts require the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines to survey certain areas on Federal lands to determine what mineral values, if any, may be present. Results must be made available to the public and be submitted to the President and the Congress. This report presents the results a geochemical survey of the Great Gulf and Presidential Range-Dry River Wilderness Areas; the Dartmouth Range, Wild River, Pemigewasset, Kinsman Mountain, Mount Wolf-Gordon Pond, Jobildunk, Carr Mountain, Sandwich Range, and the Dry River Extention (2 parcels) Roadless Areas; and the intervening and immediately surrounding areas in the White Mountain National Forest, Coos, Grafton, and Carroll Counties, New Hampshire. The Great Gulf Wilderness was established when the Wilderness Act was passed in 1964, and the Presidential Range-Dray Wiver Wilderness was established by Public Law 93-622, January 3, 1975. The Dartmouth Range, Wild River, Pemigewasset, Kinsman Mountain, Mount Wolf-Gordon Pond, Carr Mountain, and Jobildunk areas were classified as a further planning area during the Second Roadless Area Review and Evaluation (RARE II) by the U.S. Forest Service, January 1979. The White Mountain National Forest contains two established wilderness areas and ten additional RARE II roadless areas, covering a total of about 380 square miles. The location of these areas is shown on figure 1 and further information about them is contained in table 2. In order to treat all these separate areas as a single entity, they, along with the immediately surrounding areas, were combined into one study area, hereafter referred to as the study area, of about 1,300 square miles. This map is based on joint investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Office of the State Geologists of New Hampshire. The geochemical survey was conducted in the summer of 1980 and was integrated with an on-going multidisciplinary study of mineral resources of the Sherbrooke and Lewiston 1°x2° quadrangles under the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP).

New Hampshire↗
USGS1985

Chemistry and transport of soluble humic substances in forested watersheds of the Adirondack Park, New York

Studies were conducted in conjunction with the Integrated Lake-Watershed Acidification Study (ILWAS) to examine the chemistry and leaching patterns of soluble humic substances in forested watersheds of the Adirondack region. During the summer growing season, mean dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the ILWAS watersheds ranged from 21–32 mg C l −1 in O/A horizon leachates, from 5–7 mg C l −1 in B horizon leachates, from 2–4 mg C l −1 in groundwater solutions, from 6–8 mg C l −1 in first order streams, from 3–8 mg C l −1 in lake inlets, and from 2–7 mg C l −1 in lake outlets. During the winter, mean DOC concentrations dropped significantly in the upper soil profile. Soil solutions from mixed and coniferous stands contained as much as twice the DOC concentration of lysimeter samples from hardwood stands. Results of DOC fractionation analysis showed that hydrophobia and hydrophilic acids dominate the organic solute composition of natural waters in these watersheds. Charge balance and titration results indicated that the general acid-base characteristics of the dissolved humic mixture in these natural waters can be accounted for by a model organic acid having an average p K a of 3.85, an average charge density of 4–5 μeq mg −1 C at ambient pH, and a total of 6–7 meq COOH per gram carbon.

New York↗
USGS2016

Novel and lost forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass

EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection.

Michigan, Minnesota Wisconsin↗
USGS2008

Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region

Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗
USGS2016

Testing fault growth models with low-temperature thermochronology in the northwest Basin and Range, USA

Common fault growth models diverge in predicting how faults accumulate displacement and lengthen through time. A paucity of field-based data documenting the lateral component of fault growth hinders our ability to test these models and fully understand how natural fault systems evolve. Here we outline a framework for using apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronology (AHe) to quantify the along-strike growth of faults. To test our framework, we first use a transect in the normal fault-bounded Jackson Mountains in the Nevada Basin and Range Province, then apply the new framework to the adjacent Pine Forest Range. We combine new and existing cross sections with 18 new and 16 existing AHe cooling ages to determine the spatiotemporal variability in footwall exhumation and evaluate models for fault growth. Three age-elevation transects in the Pine Forest Range show that rapid exhumation began along the range-front fault between approximately 15 and 11 Ma at rates of 0.2–0.4 km/Myr, ultimately exhuming approximately 1.5–5 km. The ages of rapid exhumation identified at each transect lie within data uncertainty, indicating concomitant onset of faulting along strike. We show that even in the case of growth by fault-segment linkage, the fault would achieve its modern length within 3–4 Myr of onset. Comparison with the Jackson Mountains highlights the inadequacies of spatially limited sampling. A constant fault-length growth model is the best explanation for our thermochronology results. We advocate that low-temperature thermochronology can be further utilized to better understand and quantify fault growth with broader implications for seismic hazard assessments and the coevolution of faulting and topography.

Tectonics↗
USGS2018

Regeneration of Salicaceae riparian forests in the Northern Hemisphere: A new framework and management tool

Human activities on floodplains have severely disrupted the regeneration of foundation riparian shrub and tree species of the Salicaceae family ( Populus and Salix spp.) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Restoration ecologists initially tackled this problem from a terrestrial perspective that emphasized planting. More recently, floodplain restoration activities have embraced an aquatic perspective, inspired by the expanding practice of managing river flows to improve river health (environmental flows) . However, riparian Salicaceae species occupy floodplain and riparian areas, which lie at the interface of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems along watercourses . Thus, their regeneration depends on a complex interaction of hydrologic and geomorphic processes that have shaped key life-cycle requirements for seedling establishment . Ultimately, restoration needs to integrate these concepts to succeed. However, while regeneration of Salicaceae is now reasonably well-understood, the literature reporting restoration actions on Salicaceae regeneration is sparse, and a specific theoretical framework is still missing. Here, we have reviewed 105 peer-reviewed published experiences in restoration of Salicaceae forests, including 91 projects in 10 world regions, to construct a decision tree to inform restoration planning through explicit links between the well-studied biophysical requirements of Salicaceae regeneration and 17 specific restoration actions, the most popular being planting (in 55% of the projects), land contouring (30%), removal of competing vegetation (30%), site selection (26%), and irrigation (24%). We also identified research gaps related to Salicaceae forest restoration and discuss alternative, innovative and feasible approaches that incorporate the human component.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2007

Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes

Ecosystem patterns and disturbance processes at one spatial scale often interact with processes at another scale, and the result of such cross-scale interactions can be nonlinear dynamics with thresholds. Examples of cross-scale pattern-process relationships and interactions among forest dieback, fire, and erosion are illustrated from northern New Mexico (USA) landscapes, where long-term studies have recently documented all of these disturbance processes. For example, environmental stress, operating on individual trees, can cause tree death that is amplified by insect mortality agents to propagate to patch and then landscape or even regional-scale forest dieback. Severe drought and unusual warmth in the southwestern USA since the late 1990s apparently exceeded species-specific physiological thresholds for multiple tree species, resulting in substantial vegetation mortality across millions of hectares of woodlands and forests in recent years. Predictions of forest dieback across spatial scales are constrained by uncertainties associated with: limited knowledge of species-specific physiological thresholds; individual and site-specific variation in these mortality thresholds; and positive feedback loops between rapidly-responding insect herbivore populations and their stressed plant hosts, sometimes resulting in nonlinear “pest” outbreak dynamics. Fire behavior also exhibits nonlinearities across spatial scales, illustrated by changes in historic fire regimes where patch-scale grazing disturbance led to regional-scale collapse of surface fire activity and subsequent recent increases in the scale of extreme fire events in New Mexico. Vegetation dieback interacts with fire activity by modifying fuel amounts and configurations at multiple spatial scales. Runoff and erosion processes are also subject to scale-dependent threshold behaviors, exemplified by ecohydrological work in semiarid New Mexico watersheds showing how declines in ground surface cover lead to non-linear increases in bare patch connectivity and thereby accelerated runoff and erosion at hillslope and watershed scales. Vegetation dieback, grazing, and fire can change land surface properties and cross-scale hydrologic connectivities, directly altering ecohydrological patterns of runoff and erosion. The interactions among disturbance processes across spatial scales can be key drivers in ecosystem dynamics, as illustrated by these studies of recent landscape changes in northern New Mexico. To better anticipate and mitigate accelerating human impacts to the planetary ecosystem at all spatial scales, improvements are needed in our conceptual and quantitative understanding of cross-scale interactions among disturbance processes.

New Mexico↗
USGS2013

Immunological markers for tolerance to avian malaria in Hawai`i `Amakihi: new tools for restoring native Hawaiian forest birds?

We evaluated three assays for non-specific or innate immune capacity to see if measurements were independent of malarial infection and capable of distinguishing malaria-tolerant, low-elevation Hawaiʽi ʽAmakihi from malaria-susceptible, high-elevation ʽAmakihi. ʽAmakihi were captured at Malama Ki Forest Reserve (20 m), Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (1800 m), and Upper Waiakea Forest Reserve (1700 m), bled for collection of plasma and packed erythrocytes for malarial diagnostics, and either transported to Kīlauea Field Station Aviary and held in captivity for 48 hours for inoculation of wing webs with phytohemagglutinin A (PHA) or released immediately in the field after collection of a blood sample. All birds were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and microscopy to determine infection status. We found no significant association between malarial infection status and degree of wing web swelling after inoculation with PHA (T = -0.174, df = 13, P = 0.864) and no association between origin of birds from low- and high-elevation populations and degree of wing web swelling (T = 0.113, df = 52, P = 0.911). Infected ʽAmakihi from low elevation had significantly higher small molecule plasma antioxidant capacity than uninfected individuals from the same population (T = -2.675, df = 21, P = 0.014), so we limited comparisons to uninfected birds. Uninfected ʽAmakihi from low elevations did not differ in small molecule plasma antioxidant capacity from uninfected ʽAmakihi from high elevation (T = -0.260, df = 46, P = 0.796). Compared to high-elevation birds, low-elevation ʽAmakihi had significantly higher titers of natural antibodies (NAb) as measured by complement-mediated lysis of rabbit erythrocytes (Mann-Whitney U = 27, X 2 = 32.332, df = 1, P < 0.0001). This innate immunological difference may be related to ability to survive malarial infection and may prove to be important for understanding possible mechanisms for the evolution of disease tolerance in Hawaiʽi’s native bird species.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the northeastern United States

SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to quantify and improve the understanding of the sources, fate, and transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in the northeastern United States. Excessive nutrients and suspended sediment from upland watersheds and tributary streams have contributed to ecological and economic degradation of northeastern surface waters. Recent efforts to reduce the flux of nutrients and suspended sediment in northeastern streams and to downstream estuaries have met with mixed results, and expected ecological improvements have been observed in some areas but not in others. Effective watershed management and restoration to improve surface-water quality are complicated by the multitude of nutrient sources in the Northeast and the multitude of natural and human landscape processes affecting the delivery of nutrients and suspended sediment from upland areas to and within surface waters. Individual models were constructed representing streamflow and the loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment from watersheds draining to the Atlantic Ocean from southern Virginia through Maine. Northeastern streams contribute 303,000 metric tons (t) of nitrogen, 25,300 t of phosphorus, and 14,700,000 t of suspended sediment, annually (on average), to waters along the Atlantic Coast of North America. Although atmospheric deposition and natural mineral erosion contribute to nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, in northeastern streams, most of the contributions are attributable to urban or agricultural sources. Within the Northeast, average yields of nutrients are therefore generally greater from densely populated or intensively cultivated areas of the mid-Atlantic region, the Hudson, Mohawk, and Connecticut River valleys, and the coastal areas of southern New England than in predominantly forested areas such as northern New England. Average upland sediment yields are similarly greater from agricultural areas than from urban or forested areas and are therefore generally greatest in areas yielding the greatest nutrients. Landscape conditions that are significant to nitrogen delivery from uplands to streams likely reflect the importance of groundwater transport in carbonate settings and of denitrification for removing nitrogen from uplands. Nitrogen losses to streams in agricultural areas are apparently mitigated by the use of cover crops but are exacerbated by the use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. The transport of phosphorus and suspended sediment from uplands to streams is greater in areas of more erodible soils but mitigated in agricultural areas with greater use of conservation tillage or no-till practices. Loads of nutrients and suspended sediment are significantly reduced within the stream network in impounded reaches, and nitrogen load is also significantly reduced in small flowing reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Operational assessment tool for forest carbon dynamics for the United States: A new spatially explicit approach linking the LUCAS and CBM-CFS3 models

Background Quantifying the carbon balance of forested ecosystems has been the subject of intense study involving the development of numerous methodological approaches. Forest inventories, processes-based biogeochemical models, and inversion methods have all been used to estimate the contribution of U.S. forests to the global terrestrial carbon sink. However, estimates have ranged widely, largely based on the approach used, and no single system is appropriate for operational carbon quantification and forecasting. We present estimates obtained using a new spatially explicit modeling framework utilizing a “gain–loss” approach, by linking the LUCAS model of land-use and land-cover change with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Results We estimated forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States stored 52.0 Pg C across all pools. Between 2001 and 2020, carbon storage increased by 2.4 Pg C at an annualized rate of 126 Tg C year −1 . Our results broadly agree with other studies using a variety of other methods to estimate the forest carbon sink. Climate variability and change was the primary driver of annual variability in the size of the net carbon sink, while land-use and land-cover change and disturbance were the primary drivers of the magnitude, reducing annual sink strength by 39%. Projections of carbon change under climate scenarios for the western U.S. find diverging estimates of carbon balance depending on the scenario. Under a moderate emissions scenario we estimated a 38% increase in the net sink of carbon, while under a high emissions scenario we estimated a reversal from a net sink to net source. Conclusions The new approach provides a fully coupled modeling framework capable of producing spatially explicit estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes under a range of historical and/or future socioeconomic, climate, and land management futures.

Continental United States↗
USGS2020

Geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, New Mexico, 2018

About one-quarter of the water supply for the Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, is from groundwater pumped from wells located along North Fork Eagle Creek in the National Forest System lands of the Lincoln National Forest near Alto, New Mexico. Because of concerns regarding the effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water hydrology in the North Fork Eagle Creek Basin and the effects of the 2012 Little Bear Fire, which resulted in substantial loss of vegetation in the basin, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest, has required monitoring of a portion of North Fork Eagle Creek for short-term geomorphic change as part of the permitting decision that allows for the continued pumping of the production wells. The objective of this study is to address the geomorphic monitoring requirements of the permitting decision by conducting annual geomorphic surveys of North Fork Eagle Creek along the stream reach between the North Fork Eagle Creek near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey [USGS] site 08387550) and the Eagle Creek below South Fork near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (USGS site 08387600). The monitoring of short-term geomorphic change in the stream reach began in June 2017 with surveys of select cross sections and surveys of all woody debris accumulations and pools found in the channel. In June 2018, the monitoring of short-term geomorphic change continued with another geomorphic survey of the stream reach (with some modification to the monitoring methods). The 2017 and 2018 surveys were conducted by the USGS, in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, and were the first two in a planned series of five annual geomorphic surveys. The results of the 2017 geomorphic survey were summarized and interpreted in a previous USGS Open-File Report, and the data were published in the companion data release of that report. In this report, the results of the 2018 geomorphic survey are summarized, interpreted, and compared to the results of the 2017 survey. The data from the 2018 geomorphic survey are published in the companion data release of this report. The study reach surveyed in June 2018 is 1.89 miles long, beginning about 260 feet upstream from the North Fork Eagle Creek near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station and ending at the Eagle Creek below South Fork near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station. Large sections of the study reach are characterized by intermittent streamflow, and where streamflow is normally continuous (including at the upper and lower portions of the study reach, near the streamflow-gaging stations), the streamflow typically remains less than 2 cubic feet per second throughout the year except during seasonal high flows, which most often result from rainfall during the North American monsoon months of July, August, and September or from snowmelt runoff in March, April, and May. Between the 2017 and 2018 surveys, high-flow events resulting from both rainfall (during the North American monsoon season) and snowmelt runoff (during the winter) occurred in the study reach, and those high-flow events appeared to have caused some minor and localized geomorphic changes in the study reach, which were evaluated through comparison of the 2017 and 2018 survey results. For the 2017 geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, cross sections were established and surveyed at 14 locations along the study reach, and in 2018, those same 14 cross sections were resurveyed. Comparisons of the cross-section survey results indicated that minor observable geomorphic changes had occurred in 3 of the 14 cross sections. These minor observable geomorphic changes included aggradation or degradation of surface materials by about 1–2 feet in some parts of the affected cross sections. To further assess geomorphic changes within the study reach, other features, including woody debris accumulations and pools, were surveyed in both 2017 and 2018. During the 2018 geomorphic survey, 112 distinct accumulations of woody debris and 71 pools were identified in the study reach. Charred wood or burn-marked wood was present in at least 17 of the identified woody debris accumulations (and was present in some of the woody debris accumulations identified during the 2017 survey), indicating that some of the woody debris in the channel may have been sourced from trees or forest litter that had burned during 2012 Little Bear Fire. Only 22 of the 112 woody debris accumulations identified during the 2018 survey were certain to have also been present during the 2017 survey (when 58 woody debris accumulations were identified), indicating that most of the woody debris accumulations surveyed in 2017 were likely transported during the high-flow events between the 2017 and 2018 surveys but also indicating that the flows during those events were not high enough to remove some of the more firmly anchored woody debris accumulations. Most woody debris accumulations identified in 2018 did not appear to have substantially influenced geomorphic change in the locations where they were found. However, the formation of 10 of the 71 pools identified in the study reach in 2018 appeared to have been influenced by the presence of woody debris, indicating that some woody debris accumulations may have driven local geomorphic changes. Notably, pool totals from the 2017 survey could not be accurately compared to the pool totals from the 2018 survey because of differences between the two surveys in the methods used to identify pools. Because the study began 5 years after the 2012 Little Bear Fire, and because the period and geomorphic scope of the study have so far been limited, it cannot be said that the geomorphic changes observed between the 2017 and 2018 surveys are representative of a pattern of geomorphic change following the 2012 Little Bear Fire. Though, once geomorphic changes between the 2017 and 2018 surveys can be compared with results from geomorphic surveys planned for 2019, 2020, and 2021, it may be possible to develop an understanding of the patterns in geomorphic change following the 2012 Little Bear Fire.

New Mexico↗
USGS2013

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO 2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO 2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO 2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO 2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO 2 flux ~100 g C m −2 yr −1 , for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m −2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m −2 ). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO 2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Biogeosciences↗
USGS2012

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) to greater than 500,000 m 3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m 3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m 3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

New Mexico↗