Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “National Academy of Science.”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Mechanics of the Panama Canal slides

Dr. Becker visited the Canal Zone in 1913 as a geologist of the United States Geological Survey and since that time has given the problem the benefit of his study. His appointment as a member of the committee of the National Academy of Sciences has made it appropriate for his conclusions, based upon his personal observations and already reported in part to the Canal Commission, to be stated for the benefit of his associates and other American scientists and engineers.

Panama Canal↗

Selenium concentrations in leaf material from Astragalus Oxyphysus (diablo locoweed) and Atriplex Lentiformis (quail bush) in the interior Coast Ranges and the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Leaf material from selenium accumulating plants was collected and analyzed for selenium to obtain a relative indication of selenium concentrations in soils and identify sites suitable for further soil study. Selenium concentrations of 14 samples of leaf material from Astragalus oxyphysus ranged from 0.08 to 3.5 microg/g dry weight and had a median concentration of 0.25 microg/g. Five replicate samples of A. oxyphysus had a mean selenium concentration of 0.22 microg/g and a standard deviation of 0.07. Selenium concentrations of 17 samples of leaf material from Atriplex lentiformis ranged from 0.08 to 7.5 microg/g and had a median concentration of 0.35 microg/g. As a general guideline, the National Academy of Sciences recommends a maximum safe tolerance level of 2 microg/g of selenium in animal feeds. One sample of A. oxyphysus, collected in the Panoche Creek drainage, exceeded 2 mcirog/g. Three samples of A. lentiformis, collected in Klipstein Canyon, Tumey Fan, and Panoche Fan, equaled or exceeded 2 microg/g. These sites may be suitable. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Water quality in Gaines Creek and Gaines Creek Arm, Eufaula Lake, Oklahoma

Based on samples collected from May 1978 to May 1980 and analyzed for major anions, nitrogen, trace elements, phytoplankton, and bacteria, the water in Gaines Creek and the Gaines Creek arm of Eufaula Lake was similar with respect to suitability for municipal use. Water from Gaines Creek had a pH range of 5.7 to 7.6 and a maximum specific conductance of 97 microsiemens per centimeter at 25° Celsius, whereas water from the Gaines Creek arm of Eufaula Lake had a pH range of 6.0 to 9.2 and a maximum specific conductance of 260 microsiemens per centimeter at 25° Celsius. Dissolved oxygen, pH, temperature, and specific conductance values for the lake varied with depth. With the exceptions of cadmium, iron, lead, and manganese, trace-element determinations of samples were within recommended national primary and secondary drinking-water standards. When compared to the National Academy of Sciences water-quality criteria, phytoplankton and bacteria counts exceeded recommendations; however, water from either Gaines Creek or Eufaula Lake could be treated similarly and used as a municipal water supply.

Oklahoma↗

Surface-water-quality assessment of the upper Illinois River Basin in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin: Pesticides and other synthetic organic compounds in water, sediment, and biota, 1975-90

The distribution of pesticides and other synthetic organic compounds in water, sediment, and biota in the upper Illinois River Basin in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin was examined from 1987 through 1990 as part of the pilot National Water-Quality Assesssment Program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. Historical data for water and sediment collected from 1975 through 1986 were similar to data collected from 1987 through 1990. Some compounds were detected in concentrations that exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency water-quality criteria. Results from pesticide sampling at four stations in 1988 and 1989 identified several agricultural pesticides that were detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in urban areas than in agricultural areas. Results from herbicide sampling at 17 stations in the Kankakee and Iroquois River Basins in 1990 indicated that atrazine concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant level for drinking water during runoff periods. Results from sampling for volatile and semivolatile organic compounds in water indicate that, with one exception, all stations at which more than one compound was detected were within 2 miles downstream from the nearest point source. Detections at two stations in the Chicago urban area accounted for 37 percent of the total number of detections. Concentrations of tetrachloroethylene, trichloroethylene, and 1,2-dichlorethane from stations in the Des Plaines River Basin exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contaminant level for drinking water in one and two samples from the two stations in the Chicago area. Phenols and pentachlorophenols were detected most frequently in the Des Plaines River Basin where point-source discharges were common. Phenol concentrations were significantly different among the Des Plaines, Kankakee, and Fox River Basins. Phenols and pentachlorophenols never exceeded the general use and secondary contact standards. Results from a 1989 synoptic survey of semivolatile organic compounds in sediment indicate that these compounds were detected most frequently at sites in the Chicago urban area. Of the 17 stations at which 10 or more compounds were detected, 14 were located in the Des Plaines River subbasin, and 1 was on the Illinois River mainstem. As was the case with organic compounds in water, each of these sites was located within 2 miles downstream from point sources. Biota samples were collected and analyzed for organochlorines and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in 1989 and 1990. The most commonly detected compound in both years was p,p'-DDE. National Academy of Science recommendations for chlordane and dieldrin for protection of predators were exceeded in 19 and 10 samples, respectively, when the 1989 and 1990 data were combined. In the nine fish-fillet samples collected in 1989, concentrations exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fish-tissue criteria in nine fillets for p,p'-DDE and five fillets for dieldrin.

Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin↗

Density matters: Review of approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

As part of their effort to develop national ballast water discharge standards under NPDES permitting, the Office of Water requested that WED scientists identify and review existing approaches to generating organism-based discharge standards for ballast water. Six potential approaches were identified and the utility and uncertainties of each approach was evaluated. During the process of reviewing the existing approaches, the WED scientists, in conjunction with scientists at the USGS and Smithsonian Institution, developed a new approach (per capita invasion probability or "PCIP") that addresses many of the limitations of the previous methodologies. THE PCIP approach allows risk managers to generate quantitative discharge standards using historical invasion rates, ballast water discharge volumes, and ballast water organism concentrations. The statistical power of sampling ballast water for both the validation of ballast water treatment systems and ship-board compliance monitoring with the existing methods, though it should be possible to obtain sufficient samples during treatment validation. The report will go to a National Academy of Sciences expert panel that will use it in their evaluation of approaches to developing ballast water discharge standards for the Office of Water.

Report↗

The fellow speaks: Sometimes you get only one chance

I am grateful to AGU for selecting me as one of the five recipient of the 2014 Ambassador Award, which also includes election as a Union Fellow. I thank my colleague Steve Ingebritsen for nominating me. As Steve’s citation mentions my work on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, I would like to reflect on this experience. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is well documented in the report of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011). Washington Post writer John Achenbach’s (2011) book gives a behind-the-scene portrayal of the crisis and explains oil drilling technology in layman’s terms. A special feature in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (v. 109, no. 50, December 11, 2012) presents 4 perspectives and 11 research articles on “Science Applications in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Here, I will simply share my personal perspective.

AGU Hydrology Section Newsletter↗

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Earth Magazine↗

1993 Annual Report: San Francisco estuary regional monitoring program for trace substances

This first annual report of the San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program contains the results of monitoring measurements made in 1993. Measurements of conventional water quality parameters and trace contaminant concentrations were made at 16 stations throughout the Estuary three times during the year: the wet period (March), during declining Delta outflow (May), and during the dry period (September). Water toxicity tests were conducted at 8 of those stations. Measurements of sediment quality and contaminant concentrations were made at the same 16 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Sediment toxicity was measured at 8 of those stations. Transplanted, bagged bivalve bioaccumulation and condition was measured at 11 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Water Monitoring. Total or near-total (dissolved + particulate, see text) arsenic, cadmium, selenium, and dissolved (0.45 µm filtered) arsenic, cadmium, copper, nickel, silver, and zinc in water were highest in the South Bay. In general, dissolved metals in water were usually lowest in the Central Bay due to ocean influences. Near-total nickel and total mercury in water were highest in the northern estuary (San Pablo and Suisun Bays). Dissolved chromium and lead were highest at the Sacramento and San Joaquin River confluence stations. Six of the ten dissolved trace metals were highest in March during high runoff. Dissolved and total arsenic, selenium, and near-total cadmium were highest in September. Concentrations of trace organic contaminants are reported for the March sampling period. Total PAHs and PCBs were highest in the South Bay, but PCBs were also high in the Napa River. Dissolved PAHs were highest in the Central Bay, and dissolved PCBs were highest in the Napa River. Total and dissolved pesticides were highest in the Sacramento River and in the Extreme South Bay. Concentrations of trace elements in water (except selenium) were usually closely related with other environmental parameters. Total or near-total metals concentrations in water were most often associated with the amount of particulate material (TSS) in the water. Dissolved concentrations were usually associated with salinity or dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content. Dissolved PAHs were well correlated with TSS, but dissolved and total trace organic contaminants were poorly correlated with other water parameters. Based on deviations from conservative mixing of fresh and salt water, three different patterns of possible sources of metals were identified in 1993. For dissolved chromium and lead, rivers and local runoff appeared to be important sources. For dissolved arsenic, cadmium, copper, and nickel year-round inputs from the South Bay appeared to be important sources. Dissolved mercury, selenium, and zinc were associated with local runoff in the South Bay during the wet period. Dissolved silver did not fit any of these patterns. Although most contaminant concentrations were below water quality objectives, several trace contaminants were above the objectives at some stations. Comparisons to water quality objectives are used as a guide for evaluation of contaminant concentrations, but there are some differences in the way the RMP data are measured and that prescribed for regulatory purposes (see text). Concentrations of 5 metals in water were above EPA or Regional Basin Plan water quality objectives at six stations (see Table 30). Most of these elevated levels occurred at the northern estuary stations. Total PCB concentrations were above EPA human health objectives at all RMP stations. The pesticides chlordane, dieldrin, and DDTs were above the EPA objectives at several RMP stations, particularly at the northern-most, and river confluence stations. Although some of the contaminant concentrations were above water quality objectives, water toxicity tests (96 hour algal growth and 48 hour bivalve larval development tests) did not indicate toxicity (sometimes inconclusive) associated with the water samples collected at any of the RMP stations in 1993. Exposure to Bay San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program Regional Monitoring Program 1993 Report ii water actually enhanced algal growth at most stations. In addition to the Estuary-wide sampling, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers were sampled upstream from their confluence. Stations in each river were sampled six times over a 6 week period of high flows. In the Sacramento River, seven of the ten dissolved metals measured had concentrations lower than those measured at the river confluence stations. Some metals concentrations in the San Joaquin River were higher, and some were lower than concentrations from the river confluence station. Metals concentrations in the Sacramento River were poorly related to river flow because the station at Rio Vista is under considerable tidal influence. In the San Joaquin River, flows were inversely related to 7 of 10 total metals concentrations. Sediment Monitoring. Concentrations of silver, mercury, and lead in sediment were highest in the South Bay. However, concentrations of most trace metals in sediments were highest in the northern estuary at stations with the finest (silt, clay) sediments. The northern estuary stations with the coarsest (sand, shell) sediments generally had the lowest metals concentrations. There were differences in concentrations of cadmium, lead, and selenium in sediments between the sampling periods, but no consistent trend as to which sampling period had higher values. In September, PAHs and PCBs in sediments were highest in the Central Bay, but pesticides in sediments were highest in the northern estuary and Extreme South Bay. NOAA’s Median Effects Ranges (ERM) for sediments were used as a guide for evaluation of sediment contaminant concentrations. Nickel was the only trace contaminant in sediment above the ERM guidelines, and it was high at all RMP stations. These high levels are probably due to natural, geologic sources. Although sediment contaminant concentrations were below ERMs, sediment toxicity tests (10 day amphipod mortality, and 48 hour bivalve larval development in elutriates) indicated toxicity at all stations tested. Sediment factors that could have caused the toxicity were not investigated. Bivalve Bioaccumulation. Mussels, oysters, and freshwater clams were transplanted to the RMP stations to evaluate bioaccumulation of trace substances. Trace metals were bioaccumulated at nearly all RMP stations. However, arsenic, lead, and mercury did not appear to bioaccumulate. There was generally more bioaccumulation during the dry season than during the wet season. In September, PAHs, PCBs, and pesticides accumulated in all samples. Bioaccumulation of PAHs and pesticides was generally highest at the river confluence stations, and the Napa River. PCBs accumulated most at Redwood Creek. There were substantial differences in the degree of bioaccumulation among the species. Oysters appeared to accumulate higher concentrations of trace metals than the other species, especially copper, which may be a natural phenomenon. There are no established tissue contaminant standards for trace metal and organic contaminants. Therefore, comparisons to Median International Standards (MIS) for human consumption, or U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) action levels for trace organics are used to evaluate the bioaccumulation results. Concentrations of selenium were higher than MIS guidelines at all stations during the wet season. Other trace metal concentrations were higher than MIS guidelines at various stations during one or the other sampling period. However, none of the bivalves contained concentrations above the USFDA or National Academy of Sciences (NAS) guidelines for trace organic contaminants. The transplanted bivalves survived well at all stations except in the Napa River where less than 35% survived during both sampling seasons. Measures of bivalve condition (dry weight, shell volume) indicated that bivalves deployed in the Central Bay grew significantly, but those at most other stations actually lost weight. Whether these differences were due to natural causes such as salinity or food supply, or to contamination, was not determined. Pilot Studies. Two pilot monitoring studies were conducted in 1993. A pilot study of Estuary hydrography and phytoplankton was conducted by scientists from the U.S. Summary Geological Survey in Menlo Park and U.C. Davis. Water column profiles at up to 37 stations were monitored along a transect of the Estuary run monthly between the South Bay and the Delta. The primary objective of this study was to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a) characteristics of Estuary water that may influence other chemical and biological reactions. A second objective was to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. The data collected in 1993 showed the extent and duration of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the South Bay, other localized blooms in the northern estuary, the stratification and mixing associated with the entrapment zone in the northern estuary, and mixing in the Estuary resulting from the high rainfall in 1993. Knowledge of the duration and extent of these natural features of the Estuary provide context for interpretation of the RMP contaminant data collected only 3 times per year. Another pilot study of suspended sediment transport processes was conducted by the USGS in Sacramento. This study used continuous recording sensors at Point San Pablo and the Bay Bridge to measure the amount of suspended sediment in the water at mid-depth and near the bottom, as well as tide height. The objectives of this study were to estimate which factors determine suspended solids concentrations in the Central Bay and to collect time series of suspended solids that are appropriate for continuous monitoring of suspended solids and for calibration and validation of numerical models. The investigators determined that spring tides accounted for most of the variation in suspended solids concentrations at the stations monitored, not runoff from the Sacramento or San Joaquin Rivers, or semidiurnal and diurnal tides. Comparisons were also made between measurements made by the continuous recordings and the RMP samples collected during the regular monitoring cruises. The different ways of measuring TSS were generally comparable, however only 3 measurements per year as made by the RMP could not provide the information of TSS variation actually occurring in the Estuary. This information is important because as shown by the RMP data, total contaminant concentrations in Estuary water is largely dependent on the TSS in the water. This implies that the RMP measurements alone cannot determine accurately the range of contaminant concentrations without better characterizing the dynamics of TSS. The RMP Pilot Studies are important to the developing RMP because they will help put RMP measurements into the perspective of Estuary processes and mechanisms at other time scales. The studies can relate those processes to the RMP measurements and will facilitate revision of sampling design and interpretation. Summaries of other monitoring activities pertinent to regional monitoring are also included in the Report: a description of the Regional Board’s Bay Protection Studies, the Sacramento Coordinated Monitoring Program, and a wetlands monitoring plan are included.

California↗

Gas bubble disease: mortalities of coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch, in water with constant total gas pressure and different oxygen-nitrogen ratios

A review of the literature regarding gas-bubble disease can be found in a recent publication by Rucker (1972); one by the National Academy of Science (Anonymous in press); and an unpublished report by Weitkamp and Katz (1973)." Most discussions on gas-bubble disease have dealt with the inert gas, nitrogen-oxygen was given a secondary role. It is important to know the relationship of nitrogen and oxygen when we are concerned with the total gas pressure in water. Where water becomes aerated at dams or falls, oxygen and nitrogen are usually about equally saturated, however, many of the samples analyzed from the Columbia River indicate that nitrogen is often about 7% higher than oxygen when expressed as a percentage. When oxygen is removed from water by metabolic and chemical action, or when oxygen is added to the water by photosynthesis, there is a definite change in the ratio of oxygen and the inert gases (mainly nitrogen with some argon, etc.). This present study shows the effect of varying the oxygen and nitrogen ratio in water on fingerling coho salmon, Oncorh.llnchllS kislltch, while maintaining a constant total gas pressure. The primary purpose of these experiments was to determine differences in lethality of various gas ratios of oxygen and nitrogen at a constant total gas pressure of 119%. I also wished to determine whether there was a difference in susceptibility between sizes and stocks of juvenile coho. Also to be examined was the effect of reducing the oJl:ygen while holding the nitrogen constant.

Fishery Bulletin↗

Organochlorine residues in fish: National Pesticide Monitoring Program, 1970-74

As part of the National Pesticide Monitoring Program, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service analyzed organochlorine contaminant residues in fish samples collected from about 100 stations each year from 1970 to 1974. During this period, mean residues of DDT and its metabolites declined nationally but remained widespread, and high concentrations continued to be present in areas where DDT use was extensive. Results of interlaboratory crosscheck analyses supported these conclusions, despite interpretation problems posed by intercompound analytical interferences in 1970 and 1971. Temporal trends in PCB residues were less obvious. Highest PCB residues were found in the industrialized areas of the Northwest and Midwest, and traces were present at most stations. Dieldrin and endrin residues remained essentially unchanged during this period; dieldrin residues were widespread and were highest in Hawaii and in areas of the Midwest where aldrin was used extensively. Toxaphene occurrence increased; it was formerly found only in fish from streams draining cotton-farming regions, but residues were detected in 1974 samples from other areas. According to the recommendation of the National Academy of Sciences' Water Quality Criteria, organochlorine residues in freshwater fish may have represented a hazard to piscivorous fish and wildlife at 71 percent of the stations sampled in 1970 and 66 percent in 1974.

Pesticides Monitoring Journal↗

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Metallogenic belt and mineral deposit maps of northeast Asia

This report contains explanatory material and summary tables for lode mineral deposits and placer districts (Map A, sheet 1) and metallogenic belts of Northeast Asia (Maps B, C, and D on sheets 2, 3, and 4, respectively). The map region includes eastern Siberia, southeastern Russia, Mongolia, northeast China, and Japan. A large group of geologists—members of the joint international project, Major Mineral Deposits, Metallogenesis, and Tectonics of Northeast Asia—prepared the maps, tables, and introductory text. This is a cooperative project with the Russian Academy of Sciences, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Mongolian National University, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolian Technical University, Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia, Geological Research Institute, Jilin University, China Geological Survey, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Geological Survey of Japan, and U.S. Geological Survey. This report is one of a series of reports on the mineral resources, geodynamics, and metallogenesis of Northeast Asia. Companion studies include (1) a detailed geodynamics map of Northeast Asia (Parfenov and others, 2003); (2) a compilation of major mineral deposit models (Rodionov and Nokleberg, 2000; Rodionov and others, 2000); (3) a series of metallogenic belt maps (Obolenskiy and others, 2004); (4) location map of lode mineral deposits and placer districts of Northeast Asia (Ariunbileg and others, 2003b); (5) descriptions of metallogenic belts (Rodionov and others, 2004); (6) a database on significant metalliferous and selected nonmetalliferous lode deposits and selected placer districts (Ariunbileg and others, 2003a); and (7) a series of summary project publications (Ariunbileg and 74 others, 2003b).

Asia↗

Tigers and their prey: Predicting carnivore densities from prey abundance

The goal of ecology is to understand interactions that determine the distribution and abundance of organisms. In principle, ecologists should be able to identify a small number of limiting resources for a species of interest, estimate densities of these resources at different locations across the landscape, and then use these estimates to predict the density of the focal species at these locations. In practice, however, development of functional relationships between abundances of species and their resources has proven extremely difficult, and examples of such predictive ability are very rare. Ecological studies of prey requirements of tigers Panthera tigris led us to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting tiger density as a function of prey density. We tested our model using data from a landscape-scale long-term (1995-2003) field study that estimated tiger and prey densities in 11 ecologically diverse sites across India. We used field techniques and analytical methods that specifically addressed sampling and detectability, two issues that frequently present problems in macroecological studies of animal populations. Estimated densities of ungulate prey ranged between 5.3 and 63.8 animals per km 2 . Estimated tiger densities (3.2-16.8 tigers per 100 km 2 ) were reasonably consistent with model predictions. The results provide evidence of a functional relationship between abundances of large carnivores and their prey under a wide range of ecological conditions. In addition to generating important insights into carnivore ecology and conservation, the study provides a potentially useful model for the rigorous conduct of macroecological science.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Light and flow regimes regulate the metabolism of rivers

Mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation drive much of the variation in productivity across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems but do not explain variation in gross primary productivity (GPP) or ecosystem respiration (ER) in flowing waters. We document substantial variation in the magnitude and seasonality of GPP and ER across 222 US rivers. In contrast to their terrestrial counterparts, most river ecosystems respire far more carbon than they fix and have less pronounced and consistent seasonality in their metabolic rates. We find that variation in annual solar energy inputs and stability of flows are the primary drivers of GPP and ER across rivers. A classification schema based on these drivers advances river science and informs management.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Recent and future declines of a historically widespread pollinator linked to climate, land cover, and pesticides

The acute decline in global biodiversity includes not only the loss of rare species, but also the rapid collapse of common species across many different taxa. The loss of pollinating insects is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic values these species provide. The western bumble bee ( Bombus occidentalis ) was once common in western North America, but this species has become increasingly rare through much of its range. To understand potential mechanisms driving these declines, we used Bayesian occupancy models to investigate the effects of climate and land cover from 1998 to 2020, pesticide use from 2008 to 2014, and projected expected occupancy under three future scenarios. Using 14,457 surveys across 2.8 million km 2 in the western United States, we found strong negative relationships between increasing temperature and drought on occupancy and identified neonicotinoids as the pesticides of greatest negative influence across our study region. The mean predicted occupancy declined by 57% from 1998 to 2020, ranging from 15 to 83% declines across 16 ecoregions. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we found continued declines in nearly half of the ecoregions by the 2050s and mean declines of 93% under the most severe scenario across all ecoregions. This assessment underscores the tenuous future of B. occidentalis and demonstrates the scale of stressors likely contributing to rapid loss of related pollinator species throughout the globe. Scaled-up, international species-monitoring schemes and improved integration of data from formal surveys and community science will substantively improve the understanding of stressors and bumble bee population trends.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Opinion: Why we need a centralized repository for isotopic data

Stable isotopes encode and integrate the origin of matter; thus, their analysis offers tremendous potential to address questions across diverse scientific disciplines ( 1 , 2 ). Indeed, the broad applicability of stable isotopes, coupled with advancements in high-throughput analysis, have created a scientific field that is growing exponentially, and generating data at a rate paralleling the explosive rise of DNA sequencing and genomics ( 3 ). Centralized data repositories, such as GenBank, have become increasingly important as a means for archiving information, and “Big Data” analytics of these resources are revolutionizing science and everyday life.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response

This introduction to the Special Feature presents the context for science during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, summarizes how scientific knowledge was integrated across disciplines and statutory responsibilities, identifies areas where scientific information was accurate and where it was not, and considers lessons learned and recommendations for future research and response. Scientific information was integrated within and across federal and state agencies, with input from nongovernmental scientists, across a diverse portfolio of needs—stopping the flow of oil, estimating the amount of oil, capturing and recovering the oil, tracking and forecasting surface oil, protecting coastal and oceanic wildlife and habitat, managing fisheries, and protecting the safety of seafood. Disciplines involved included atmospheric, oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecological, health, biological, and chemical sciences, physics, geology, and mechanical and chemical engineering. Platforms ranged from satellites and planes to ships, buoys, gliders, and remotely operated vehicles to laboratories and computer simulations. The unprecedented response effort depended directly on intense and extensive scientific and engineering data, information, and advice. Many valuable lessons were learned that should be applied to future events.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗