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Introduction and methods of analysis for peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. Flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This chapter summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flow. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The climate data consist of monthly time series estimates of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, soil moisture storage, snow water equivalent, and runoff on a 3.1-mile by 3.1-mile grid for the conterminous United States. Statistical and graphical analyses were used to investigate potential changes in hydrology and climate. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. To examine potential causal drivers of changes, the climate data were analyzed graphically and statistically. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Mon↗

Water quality and hydrology of the Lac Vieux Desert watershed, Gogebic County, Michigan, and Vilas County, Wisconsin, 2002-04

Lac Vieux Desert is a prominent 6.6 square-mile lake that straddles the Michigan-Wisconsin border and forms the headwaters of the Wisconsin River. For generations, the Lac Vieux Desert Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians have used Lac Vieux Desert and the surrounding area for growing and harvesting wild rice, and hunting and fishing. The Lac Vieux Desert Band is concerned about the impact of lake-stage regulation on hydrology and ecology, and the impact on water quality of development along and near the shore, and recreational watercraft use and sport fishing. In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a water-resources investigation of the Lac Vieux Desert watershed in cooperation with the Lac Vieux Desert Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians. Water quality of Lac Vieux Desert is typical of many lakes in the northern United States. Trophic State Index calculations classify Lac Vieux Desert as a highly productive eutrophic lake. The pH of water in Lac Vieux Desert ranged from 6.5 to 9.5, and specific conductance ranged from 62 to 114 µs/cm. Chloride concentration was less than 1.5 mg/L, indicating little effect from septic-tank or road-salt input. Results indicate that the water can be classified as soft, with hardness concentrations reported as calcium carbonate ranging from 29 to 49 mg/L. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, and other dissolved solids ranged from 47 to 77 mg/L. Alkalinity of Lac Vieux Desert ranged from 27 to 38 mg/L. Pervasive aquatic blooms, including a bloom noted during the September 2003 sampling, are apparently common in late summer. Biological productivity at Lac Vieux Desert does not appear to have changed appreciably between 1973 and 2004. In the current study, total phosphorus concentrations ranged from 0.01 to 0.064 mg/L and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen concentrations ranged from at, or below detection limit to 0.052 mg/L. Overabundance of nutrients in Lac Vieux Desert, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, could result in considerable degradation in lake-water quality. The estimated water balance includes the following inputs from the surrounding watershed: direct precipitation (35 percent); runoff, composed of streamflow and overland flow (50 percent); and ground-water flow (15 percent). Outputs from Lac Vieux Desert include streamflow into the Wisconsin River (68 percent) and evaporation from the lake surface (32 percent). Seasonal regulation of Lac Vieux Desert outflow results in an artificially high lake stage throughout the year, except from late winter to very early spring, prior to snowmelt and runoff. Regulation of Lac Vieux Desert outflow causes Wisconsin River streamflow to be artificially low during spring and summer and artificially high in fall and winter. Recent studies indicate that lake-level regulation over the past century may have affected wild rice growth and propagation in Lac Vieux Desert. As per licensing agreement between the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Wisconsin Valley Improvement Company (operators of the dam at the outlet), the maximum lake level of Lac Vieux Desert was lowered about 0.8 feet to investigate the relation between lake-level regulation and propagation of wild rice from 2003 through 2012. Recent plantings of wild rice by the Lac Vieux Desert Band have been successful, indicating that suitable habitat and hydrologic regime were present in 2004-05.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic energy storage capacity—Natural gas storage in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs

The need for energy storage, particularly underground, where capacity and duration may far exceed battery storage technologies, is especially relevant given the increasing demands for reliable power alongside the development of intermittent renewable electricity sources. Geologic energy storage facilities already exist, and expanded use would enable storing gases such as methane and hydrogen. In 2018, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, “Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program,” recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prioritize assessing underground energy storage in geologic formations in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has since developed a methodology for assessing natural gas storage capacities in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs on a national scale. The methodology introduced in this report prescribes three approaches for calculating gas storage capacity. This methodology relies on the availability of input data, including cumulative hydrocarbon production records, reservoir petrophysical properties, and reservoir pressure data. Assessment inputs can be obtained from public, State-level databases and propriety national-scale databases, although the use of analogs could be warranted for estimating input parameters. Probabilistic assessment results are aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. The steps defined in this report are demonstrated on the Michigan Basin Province, which includes the Mississippian Sandstone Gas Play and the Clinton Structural Play. This methodology could be used to systematically and consistently assess hydrocarbon plays and provinces for natural gas storage capacity across the United States.

Michigan↗

Water-quality assessment of the western Lake Michigan drainages: Analysis of available information on nutrients and suspended sediment, water years 1971-90

In 1986, Congress appropriated funds for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop the pilot phase of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The long-term goals of this program are to (1) provide a nationally consistent description of current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's water resources; (2) define. long-term trends (or lack of trends) in water quality; and (3) identify, describe, and explain, as possible, the major factors that affect the observed water-quality conditions and trends. To fulfill the goals of the NAWQA program, the USGS plans to examine 60 areas (study units) across the United States during full implementation of the program. In 1991, the NAWQA program went into full implementation with the intensive investigation of 20 of these study units; one of these study units is the Western Lake Michigan Drainages (WMIC) study unit.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Digital representation of exposures of Precambrian bedrock in parts of Dickinson and Iron Counties, Michigan, and Florence and Marinette Counties, Wisconsin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a program of bedrock geologic mapping in much of the central and western Upper Peninsula of Michigan from the 1940s until the late 1990s. Geologic studies in this region are hampered by a scarcity of bedrock exposures because of a nearly continuous blanket of unconsolidated sediments resulting from glaciation of the region during the Pleistocene ice ages. The USGS mapping, done largely at a scale of 1:24,000, routinely recorded the location and extent of exposed bedrock to provide both an indication of where direct observations were made and a guide for future investigations to expedite location of observable rock exposures. The locations of outcrops were generally shown as colored or patterned overlays on printed geologic maps. Although those maps have been scanned and are available as Portable Document Format (PDF) files, no further digital portrayal of the outcrops had been done. We have conducted a prototype study of digitizing and improving locational accuracy of the outcrop locations in parts of Dickinson County, Michigan, to form a data layer that can be used with other data layers in geographic information system applications.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Predicting water quality by relating secchi-disk transparency and chlorophyll a measurements to satellite imagery for Michigan inland lakes, August 2002

Inland lakes are an important economic and environmental resource for Michigan. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality have been cooperatively monitoring the quality of selected lakes in Michigan through the Lake Water Quality Assessment program. Through this program, approximately 730 of Michigan's 11,000 inland lakes will be monitored once during this 15-year study. Targeted lakes will be sampled during spring turnover and again in late summer to characterize water quality. Because more extensive and more frequent sampling is not economically feasible in the Lake Water Quality Assessment program, the U.S. Geological Survey and Michigan Department of Environmental Quality investigate the use of satellite imagery as a means of estimating water quality in unsampled lakes. Satellite imagery has been successfully used in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and elsewhere to compute the trophic state of inland lakes from predicted secchi-disk measurements. Previous attempts of this kind in Michigan resulted in a poorer fit between observed and predicted data than was found for Minnesota or Wisconsin. This study tested whether estimates could be improved by using atmospherically corrected satellite imagery, whether a more appropriate regression model could be obtained for Michigan, and whether chlorophyll a concentrations could be reliably predicted from satellite imagery in order to compute trophic state of inland lakes. Although the atmospheric-correction did not significantly improve estimates of lake-water quality, a new regression equation was identified that consistently yielded better results than an equation obtained from the literature. A stepwise regression was used to determine an equation that accurately predicts chlorophyll a concentrations in northern Lower Michigan.

Michigan↗

Combining satellite data with ancillary data to produce a refined land-use/land-cover map

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages Study Unit, a current map of land use and land cover is needed to gain a better understanding of how land use and land cover may influence water quality. Satellite data from the Landsat Thematic Mapper provides a means to map and measure the type and amount of various land-cover types across the Study Unit and can be easily updated as changes occur in the landscape or in water quality. Translating these land cover categories to land use, however, requires the use of other thematic maps or ancillary data layers, such as wetland inventories, population data, or road networks. This report describes a process of (1) using satellite imagery to produce a land-cover map for the Fox/Wolf River basin, a portion of the Western Lake Michigan Drainages NAWQA Study Unit and (2) improving the satellite-derived land-cover map by using other thematic maps. The multiple data layers are processed in a geographic information system (GIS), and the combination provides more information than individual sources alone.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Data on polychlorinated biphenyls, dieldrin, lead, and cadmium in Wisconsin and Upper Michigan tributaries to Green Bay, July 1987 through April 1988

A reconnaissance study was conducted of 22 streams tributary to Green Bay to determine whether any of the streams contribute toxic substances to the bay. This effort was part of a comprehensive investigation of Green Bay funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Great Lakes National Program Office. The U.S. Geological Survey sampled the bottom sediments and water columns of 11 streams tributary to western Green Bay for polychlorinated biphenyls, lead, and cadmium. Four of these streams also were sampled for dieldrin, a pesticide previously used in the watershed. An additional 11 streams tributary to eastern Green Bay were sampled for dieldrin in the bottom sediment and storm runoff. Samples were collected from July 1987 through April 1988. Neither dieldrin nor cadmium was detected in any of the sampled tributaries. Detectable concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls and lead were found at only three sites. Polychorinated biphenyls (0.10 microgram per gram) and lead (10 milligrams per kilogram) were found in the bottom sediment of Duck Creek, a western-shore tributary near the city of Green Bay. Lead (10 milligrams per kilogram) also was found in the bottom sediment of the Suamico River near the mouth, about 5 miles north of Duck Creek. Lead (4 micrograms per liter) was detected in a spring-runoff sample from the Fishdam River, a tributary from upper Michigan.

Wisconsin↗

Science center capabilities to monitor and investigate Michigan’s water resources, 2016

Michigan faces many challenges related to water resources, including flooding, drought, water-quality degradation and impairment, varying water availability, watershed-management issues, stormwater management, aquatic-ecosystem impairment, and invasive species. Michigan’s water resources include approximately 36,000 miles of streams, over 11,000 inland lakes, 3,000 miles of shoreline along the Great Lakes (MDEQ, 2016), and groundwater aquifers throughout the State. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works in cooperation with local, State, and other Federal agencies, as well as tribes and universities, to provide scientific information used to manage the water resources of Michigan. To effectively assess water resources, the USGS uses standardized methods to operate streamgages, water-quality stations, and groundwater stations. The USGS also monitors water quality in lakes and reservoirs, makes periodic measurements along rivers and streams, and maintains all monitoring data in a national, quality-assured, hydrologic database. The USGS in Michigan investigates the occurrence, distribution, quantity, movement, and chemical and biological quality of surface water and groundwater statewide. Water-resource monitoring and scientific investigations are conducted statewide by USGS hydrologists, hydrologic technicians, biologists, and microbiologists who have expertise in data collection as well as various scientific specialties. A support staff consisting of computer-operations and administrative personnel provides the USGS the functionality to move science forward. Funding for USGS activities in Michigan comes from local and State agencies, other Federal agencies, direct Federal appropriations, and through the USGS Cooperative Matching Funds, which allows the USGS to partially match funding provided by local and State partners. This fact sheet provides an overview of the USGS current (2016) capabilities to monitor and study Michigan’s vast water resources. More information regarding projects by the Michigan Water Science Center (MI WSC) is available at http://mi.water.usgs.gov/ .

Michigan↗

Extraction and development of inset models in support of groundwater age calculations for glacial aquifers

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a regional model of Lake Michigan Basin (LMB). This report describes the construction of five MODFLOW inset models extracted from the LMB regional model and their application using the particle-tracking code MODPATH to simulate the groundwater age distribution of discharge to wells pumping from glacial deposits. The five study areas of the inset model correspond to 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins. Two of the basins are tributary to Lake Michigan from the east, two are tributary to the lake from the west, and one is just west of the western boundary of the Lake Michigan topographic basin. The inset models inherited many of the inputs to the parent LMB model, including the hydrostratigraphy and layering scheme, the hydraulic conductivity assigned to bedrock layers, recharge distribution, and water use in the form of pumping rates from glacial and bedrock wells. The construction of the inset models entailed modifying some inputs, most notably the grid spacing (reduced from cells 5,000 feet on a side in the parent LMB model to 500 feet on a side in the inset models). The refined grid spacing allowed for more precise location of pumped wells and more detailed simulation of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The glacial hydraulic conductivity values, the top bedrock surface elevation, and the surface-water network input to the inset models also were modified. The inset models are solved using the MODFLOW–NWT code, which allows for more robust handling of conditions in unconfined aquifers than previous versions of MODFLOW. Comparison of the MODFLOW inset models reveals that they incorporate a range of hydrogeologic conditions relative to the glacial part of the flow system, demonstrated by visualization and analysis of model inputs and outputs and reflected in the range of ages generated by MODPATH for existing and hypothetical glacial wells. Certain inputs and outputs are judged to be candidate predictors that, if treated statistically, may be capable of explaining much of the variance in the simulated age metrics. One example of a predictor that model results indicate strongly affects simulated age is the depth of the well open interval below the simulated water table. The strength of this example variable as an overall predictor of groundwater age and its relation to other predictors can be statistically tested through the metamodeling process. In this way the inset models are designed to serve as a training area for metamodels that estimate groundwater age in glacial wells, which in turn will contribute to ongoing studies, under the direction of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment, of contaminant susceptibility of shallow groundwater across the glacial aquifer system.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

Comparison of two precipitation gage networks in Cook County, Illinois

The Cook County Precipitation Network is a set of 25 precipitation gages established within Cook County, Illinois, on approximately a 5- to 7-mile square grid and used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help account for diversions of water from Lake Michigan to the State of Illinois. The transition from the precipitation gage network operated by the Illinois State Water Survey to the precipitation gage network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was compared for periods of overlapping data. This transition took place from May through September during the 2019 water year. The USGS was able to establish replacement precipitation gages at 17 of the 25 sites by the conclusion of the overlapping operational period. The double-mass curve method was used to compare the two networks by creating a graph of the cumulated data collected by the Illinois State Water Survey and the comparable data collected by the USGS. Breaks in the double-mass curve method are caused by a change in the relation between variables. The eight sites that were installed following the overlapping period have a gap in the recorded data; however, the slope of the line for each of the eight sites is nearly equivalent to the previous data. In general, the cumulated precipitation data from the two networks were similar. Three sites had greater than 8-percent difference in their cumulative data ratios, located at Cicero, Ping Tom Park at Chicago, and South Shore, Ill.

Illinois↗

Estimated bankfull discharge for selected Michigan rivers and regional hydraulic geometry curves for estimating bankfull characteristics in southern Michigan rivers

Regional hydraulic geometry curves are power-function equations that relate riffle dimensions and bankfull discharge to drainage-basin size. They are defined by data collected through surveys conducted at stable stream reaches and can be used to aid watershed managers, design engineers, and others involved in determination of the best course of action for an unstable stream. Hydraulic geometry curves provide a mechanism through which comparisons can be made between riffle dimensions collected at an unstable stream to those collected at stable streams within the same region. In 2005, a study was initiated to delineate regional hydraulic geometry curves for Michigan. After in-office review of 343 U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations and an extensive field reconnaissance effort, 44 stable reaches were selected for this study. Detailed surveys that included cross-sectional and longitudinal profiles and pebble counts were conducted at selected streamgages, which were distributed throughout Michigan. By use of survey data from riffle cross sections and water-surface slope, bankfull discharge was estimated and compared to flood-recurrence intervals using regional flood equations. This comparison shows that bankfull discharges in Michigan recur more frequently than every 2 years. Regional hydraulic geometry curves were developed rather than statewide curves owing to large differences in factors that control channel geometry across the State. However, after the data were subdivided according to ecoregions, it was determined that there were enough data to delineate regional hydraulic geometry curves only for the Southern Lower Michigan Ecoregion. For this ecoregion, geometry curve equations and their coefficients of determination are: Width = 8.19 x DA 0.44 ; R 2 = 0.69, Depth = 0.67 x DA 0.27 ; R 2 = 0.28, Area = 4.38 x DA 0.74 ; R 2 = 0.59, where DA is the drainage area and R 2 is the coefficient of determination. By use of discharge estimates for the Southern Lower Michigan Ecoregion, a bankfull discharge curve was delineated. The corresponding equation and its coefficient of determination are: Discharge = 4.05 x DA 0.95 ; R 2 = 0.60.

Michigan↗

Control-structure ratings on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lockport, Illinois

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago regulate flows through control structures along the Lake Michigan lakefront and the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) for Lake Michigan diversion accounting, flood control, sanitary, and navigation purposes. This report documents the measurement and computation of flow through the Lockport Controlling Works (LCW) and the Lockport Powerhouse. This analysis aided in evaluation of the ratings at both structures, and the development of new ratings at the controlling works. The LCW structure consists of seven 30-feet (ft) wide sluice gates and is used to divert water from the CSSC and into the Des Plaines River. The flow regimes for the sluice gate included both free and submerged weir. Forty and 491 flow values from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were used to develop equations describing free- and submerged-weir flow, respectively, through the sluice gates. The equations were developed for canal headwater elevations ranging from -7.0 to -10.5 ft Chicago City Datum (CCD), and tailwater (Des Plaines River at Lockport) to headwater (CSSC-LCW-Base) ratios ranging from 0.31 to 0.66. The Lockport Powerhouse structure consists of nine 9-ft wide by 14-ft high sluice gates and two 10-ft diameter turbines. Both tailwater and no-tailwater effect flow regimes occurred during nine measurements. Also, the canal headwater elevations ranged from -2.74 to -8.45 ft CCD, and the gates were configured six different ways during the measurements.

Illinois↗

Escherichia coli monitoring and assessment in 2022 and 2023 after beach restoration at Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach, Macomb County, Michigan

Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach in Michigan has a history of closures because of elevated Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentrations in its recreational waters. To reduce closures, restoration projects were implemented in 2021 to deter waterfowl from congregating on the beach. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Michigan Department of the Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy and in collaboration with Huron-Clinton Metroparks and the Macomb County Health Department, monitored E. coli from 2022–23 in surface water, shallow groundwater, and sediment at Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach. Results were compared to data from a prerestoration (2018–19) study. A significant decrease in daily geometric mean E. coli concentrations in surface water was observed postrestoration, but the number of high concentration events increased. This resulted in more frequent beach closures postrestoration. Surface-sediment E. coli concentrations significantly decreased after restoration, and waterfowl populations generally decreased from 2021 to 2023, suggesting that the deterrence measures could be influencing E. coli concentrations in surface sediments and surface water. Groundwater E. coli concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than those in surface water and revealed no change correlated with restoration. Seepage measurements indicated that groundwater occasionally discharges into surface water, potentially providing a transport mechanism for E. coli to reach the lake. Continued monitoring and consideration of environmental factors could help to better understand the beach system.

Michigan↗

Nonstationary flood frequency analysis using regression in the north-central United States

Traditional flood frequency methods assume that the statistical properties of peak streamflow do not change with time and may not be appropriate for many areas in the north-central United States. This study examines a nonstationary flood frequency analysis method that uses ordinary least squares linear regression to estimate flood magnitudes at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages that exhibit trends and change points in a nine-State region including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Michigan. Additionally, an extension of this method is introduced, which enables nonstationary flood frequency based on a statistical relation with a stochastic climate predictor. Estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood using regression equations to adjust for conditions in 2020 were computed at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages across the study area. Regression equations used either a time index or a climate variable as the explanatory variable for changes in peak streamflow. Of 153 candidate streamgages, the assumptions of time-adjusted analyses were met at 137 streamgages. Climate-adjusted flood frequency analyses were applicable at 98 streamgages based on annual precipitation, annual temperature, or annual snowfall. Time- and climate-adjusted methods produced similar estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude at streamgages where both methods were applicable. Nonstationary estimates of the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood were primarily greater than stationary estimates in eastern North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and parts of Missouri and less than stationary estimates in Montana, western North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The largest differences between stationary and nonstationary flood estimates were in North and South Dakota and Minnesota.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗

Analysis of Water-Quality Trends for Selected Streams in the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program, Michigan, 1998-2005

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began a long-term monitoring program to evaluate the water quality of most watersheds in Michigan. Major goals of this Water-Chemistry Monitoring Program were to identify streams exceeding or not meeting State or Federal water-quality standards and to assess if constituent concentrations reflecting water quality in these streams were increasing or decreasing over time. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2005 were analyzed to identify potential trends. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 31 sites across Michigan, 28 of which had sufficient data to analyze for trends. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test within the computer program ESTREND. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the state was for chloride. Chloride trends were detected at 8 of the 28 sites; trends at 7 sites were increasing and the trend at 1 site was decreasing. Although no trends were detected for various nitrogen species or phosphorus, these constituents were detected at levels greater than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommendations for nutrients in water. The results of the trend analysis will help to establish a baseline to evaluate future changes in water quality in Michigan streams.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Screening for the Pesticides Atrazine, Chlorpyrifos, Diazinon, Metolachlor, and Simazine in Selected Michigan Streams, March-November 2005

From March through November 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), did a statewide screening to aid in understanding the occurrence and distribution of selected pesticides in Michigan streams. Stream-water samples were collected from 23 sites throughout Michigan. In all, 320 water samples were analyzed by use of rapid immunoassay methods for the herbicides atrazine, metolachlor, and simazine and the insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. On one occasion (June, 2005), atrazine concentrations exceeded the Michigan water-quality value (7.3 micrograms per liter) at the Black River in St. Clair County. Neither chlorpyrifos nor diazinon was detected during April through September. MDEQ detected chlorpyrifos in streams throughout the state in November. Herbicide concentrations were highest in samples influenced by intensive agriculture; however, median herbicide concentrations were similar among agricultural and urban sites. Concentrations of herbicides were very low to undetected in undeveloped areas. Seasonal patterns were also evident during the sampling period. Increased concentrations generally occurred in late spring to early summer. At 11 sites, daily sampling was done every day for 5 days following a rainfall after herbicide application in the area. Substantial changes in concentrations of herbicides - greater than tenfold from the previous day - were observed during the daily sampling. No consistent relation was found between concentration and streamflow. Results of this study may be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive pesticide monitoring study for the State of Michigan.

Michigan↗

Combined-sewer overflow data and methods of sample collection for selected sites, Detroit, Michigan

The discharge of untreated sewage is illegal in Michigan unless permitted under Act 245 due to public health concerns. In October, 1992, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR, now the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality) issued a discharge permit to Detroit authorizing discharge from the City's 78 combined-sewer overflows (CSOs), and requiring that a long-term control plan be developed to achieve mandated waterquality standards in receiving waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) issued a national CSO policy in April, 1994, which requires (1) operational improvements of existing systems to minimize discharges and prevent their occurrence in dry weather; (2) publicly operated treatment works (POTW) to characterize the frequency and volume of discharges; and (3) construction of CSO discharge control projects where necessary. In 1993, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD) and MDNR, Surface Water Quality Division, to address part of the technical data requirements for requirement 2. The USGS scope of services for this interdisciplinary, multiagency investigation consisted of collection, compilation, and interpretation of the necessary hydrologic data, and documentation of results. In addition to USGS personnel, personnel from DWSD assisted with the field collection of samples and in alerting USGS personnel to CSO effluent discharges. From October 1, 1994 through December 31, 1995, four CSOs discharging to the Detroit River in Detroit, Michigan (figure 1) were monitored to characterize storm-related water quantity and quality. Water velocity, stage, and precipitation were measured continuously and recorded at 5-minute intervals. Water-quality samples were collected at discrete times during storms and analyzed for inorganic and organic pollutants. Discharges were sampled between 30 and 78 times for inorganic pollutants, and between 14 and 22 times for organic pollutants, depending on the site. These samples represented between 8 and 17 storms during which one or more of the four selected CSOs discharged. The monitored pollutants included fecal coliform, fecal streptococci, and Escherichia coli; antimony, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, total chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, manganese, mercury, nickel, silver, thallium and zinc; and polychlorinated biphenyl congeners, volatile organic compounds, and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. Metal and non-metal inorganic pollutants were detected at all sites. Many organic pollutants were not detected at all.

Michigan↗