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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Long-term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern U.S., are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. To better understand these detrimental effects, we formulate a conceptual model of dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change that integrates hypotheses on how plant species will respond to increases in temperature and drought, including how plant responses to climate are modified by landscape, soil, and plant attributes that are integral to water availability and use. We test the model through a synthesis of fifty years of repeat measurements of perennial plant species cover in large permanent plots across the Mojave Desert, one of the most water-limited ecosystems in North America. Plant species ranged in their sensitivity to precipitation in different seasons, capacity to increase in cover with high precipitation, and resistance to decrease in cover with low precipitation. Our model successfully explains how plant responses to climate are modified by biophysical attributes in the Mojave Desert. For example, deep-rooted plants were not as vulnerable to drought on soils that allowed for deep water percolation, whereas shallow-rooted plants were better buffered from drought on soils that promoted water retention near the surface. Synthesis. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding climate-vegetation relationships in the context of biophysical attributes that influence water availability and provide an important forecast of climate-change effects, including plant mortality and land degradation in dryland regions throughout the world.

California, Nevada

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Variability and trends in runoff efficiency in the conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water-year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water-year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water-year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north-central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south-central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north-central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south-central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Widespread initiation, reactivation, and acceleration of landslides in the northern California Coast Ranges due to extreme rainfall

Episodically to continuously active slow-moving landslides are driven by precipitation. Climate change, which is altering both the frequency and magnitude of precipitation world21 wide, is therefore predicted to have a major impact on landslides. Here we examine the behavior of hundreds of slow-moving landslides in northern California in response to large changes in annual precipitation that occurred between 2016 and 2018. We quantify the landslide displacement using repeat-pass radar interferometry and pixel offset tracking techniques on a novel dataset from the airborne NASA/JPL Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar. We found that 312 landslides were moving due to extreme rainfall during 2017, compared to 119 during 2016, which was the final year of a historic multi-year drought. However, with a return to below average rainfall in 2018, only 146 landslides remained in motion. The increased number of landslides during 2017 was primarily accommodated by landslides that were smaller than the landslides that remained active between 2016 and 2018. Furthermore, by examining a subset of 51 landslides, we found that 49 had increased velocities during 2017 when compared to 2016. Our results show that slow-moving landslides are sensitive to large changes in annual precipitation, particularly the smaller and thinner landslides that likely experience larger basal pore water pressure changes. Based on climate model predictions for the next century in California, which include increases in annual precipitation and increases in the frequency of dry-to-wet extremes, we hypothesize that there will be an overall increase in landslide activity.

California

Classification of freshwater ice conditions on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain using ground penetrating radar and TerraSAR-X satellite data

Arctic freshwater ecosystems have responded rapidly to climatic changes over the last half century. Lakes and rivers are experiencing a thinning of the seasonal ice cover, which may increase potential over-wintering freshwater habitat, winter water supply for industrial withdrawal, and permafrost degradation. Here, we combined the use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) and high-resolution (HR) spotlight TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite data (1.25 m resolution) to identify and characterize floating ice and grounded ice conditions in lakes, ponds, beaded stream pools, and an alluvial river channel. Classified ice conditions from the GPR and the TSX data showed excellent agreement: 90.6% for a predominantly floating ice lake, 99.7% for a grounded ice lake, 79.0% for a beaded stream course, and 92.1% for the alluvial river channel. A GIS-based analysis of 890 surface water features larger than 0.01 ha showed that 42% of the total surface water area potentially provided over-wintering habitat during the 2012/2013 winter. Lakes accounted for 89% of this area, whereas the alluvial river channel accounted for 10% and ponds and beaded stream pools each accounted for <1%. Identification of smaller landscape features such as beaded stream pools may be important because of their distribution and role in connecting other water bodies on the landscape. These findings advance techniques for detecting and knowledge associated with potential winter habitat distribution for fish and invertebrates at the local scale in a region of the Arctic with increasing stressors related to climate and land use change.

Alaska

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities.

Idaho, Montana

The influence of snow cover, air temperature, and groundwater flow on the active-layer thermal regime of Arctic hillslopes drained by water tracks

Permafrost in Arctic watersheds limits soil biological activity to a thin, seasonally thawed active layer that contributes water to streams. In many hillslopes, relatively wet drainage features called water tracks have distinct freeze-thaw patterns that affect groundwater flow and storage, and thus the export of heat and solutes to Arctic streams. This study uses groundwater flow and energy transport models to examine potential controls on the timing and duration of freeze–thaw conditions and the magnitude of temperature fluctuations within water tracks and their adjacent hillslopes. The simulated length of the active-layer thaw season varies by 1 month over the range of snow-cover and mean annual air-temperature scenarios simulated. The timing and duration of freezing is particularly sensitive to depth and duration of snow cover. Thus, the deeper snowpack covers that can accumulate in water tracks contribute to their more persistent thaw conditions and their ability to conduct groundwater downslope. A three-dimensional simulation shows that during the summer thaw season, the water track captures groundwater laterally from half way across the hillslope. The models presented here elucidate key mechanisms driving small-scale variation in the active-layer thermal regime of tundra hillslopes, which may be responsible for changes in drainage-network geometry and Arctic biogeochemical fluxes under a warming climate.

Alaska

Increased temperatures combined with lowered salinities differentially impact oyster size class growth and mortality

Changes in the timing and interaction of seasonal high temperatures and low salinities as predicted by climate change models could dramatically alter oyster population dynamics. Little is known explicitly about how low salinity and high temperature combinations affect spat (<25mm), seed (25–75mm), andmarket (>75mm) oyster growth and mortality. Using field and laboratory studies, this project quantified the combined effects of extremely low salinities (<5) and high temperatures (>30°C) on growth and survival of spat, seed, andmarket-sized oysters. In 2012 and 2013, hatchery-produced oysters were placed in open and closed cages at three sites in Breton Sound, LA, along a salinity gradient that typically ranged from 5 to 20. Growth and mortality were recorded monthly. Regardless of size class, oysters at the lowest salinity site (annualmean = 4.8) experienced significantly highermortality and lower growth than oysters located in higher salinity sites (annual means = 11.1 and 13.0, respectively); furthermore, all oysters in open cages at the two higher salinity sites experienced higher mortality than in closed cages, likely due to predation. To explicitly examine oyster responses to extreme low salinity and high temperature combinations, a series of laboratory studies were conducted. Oysters were placed in 18 tanks in a fully crossed temperature (25°C, 32°C) by salinity (1, 5, and 15) study with three replicates, and repeated at least twice for each oyster size class. Regardless of temperature, seed and market oysters held in low salinity tanks (salinity 1) experienced 100% mortality within 7 days. In contrast, at salinity 5, temperature significantly affected mortality; oysters in all size classes experienced greater than 50%mortality at 32°C and less than 40%mortality at 25°C. At the highest salinity tested (15), only market-sized oysters held at 32°C experienced significant mortality (>60%). These studies demonstrate that high water temperatures (>30°C) and low salinities (<5) negatively impact oyster growth and survival differentially and that high temperatures alone may negatively impact market-sized oysters. It is critical to understand the potential impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes on oyster resources to better adapt and manage for long-term sustainability.

Louisiana

A Holocene record of endogenic iron and manganese precipitation and vegetation history in a lake-fen complex in northwestern Minnesota

Little Shingobee Lake and Fen are part of the extensive network of lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee River headwaters of northwestern Minnesota, designed to study the interactions between surface and ground waters. Prior to about 11.2 cal. ka, most of these lakes and wetlands were interconnected to form glacial Lake Willobee, which apparently formed when a debris flow dammed the Shingobee River. Between 11.2 and 8.5 cal. ka, the level of Lake Willobee fell as a result of breaching of the dam, transforming the deep lake into the existing lakes and wetlands. Analyses of a 9-m core from Little Shingobee Lake (LSL-B), and lacustrine sediments under 3.3 m of peat in a 17-m core from Little Shingobee Fen (LSF-10), show that the dominant components are allogenic clastic material, and endogenic CaCO 3 and organic matter. In both cores almost all of the iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) are incorporated in endogenic minerals, presumed to be X-ray amorphous oxyhydroxide minerals, that occur in significant quantities throughout the cores; almost no Fe and Mn are contributed from detrital aluminosilicate minerals. This suggests that, for most of the Holocene, the allogenic watershed contributions to lake chemistry were minor compared to the dissolved mineral load. In addition, prior to 3.5 cal. ka, pollen zone boundaries coincide with large changes in lake-sediment mineralogy, indicating that both landscape and climate processes were linked to early- and mid-Holocene lake chemistry. The pollen time series, with sequential domination by spruce, pine, sagebrush-oak, birch-oak and, finally, white pine is typical of the region and reflects the changing location of the prairie-forest transition zone over time. These changes in vegetation had some profound effects on the geochemistry of the lake waters.

Minnesota

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Journal of Climate

Erosion rates at the Mars Exploration Rover landing sites and long-term climate change on Mars

Erosion rates derived from the Gusev cratered plains and the erosion of weak sulfates by saltating sand at Meridiani Planum are so slow that they argue that the present dry and desiccating environment has persisted since the Early Hesperian. In contrast, sedimentary rocks at Meridiani formed in the presence of groundwater and occasional surface water, and many Columbia Hills rocks at Gusev underwent aqueous alteration during the Late Noachian, approximately coeval with a wide variety of geomorphic indicators that indicate a wetter and likely warmer environment. Two-toned rocks, elevated ventifacts, and perched and undercut rocks indicate localized deflation of the Gusev plains and deposition of an equivalent amount of sediment into craters to form hollows, suggesting average erosion rates of ???0.03 nm/yr. Erosion of Hesperian craters, modification of Late Amazonian craters, and the concentration of hematite concretions in the soils of Meridiani yield slightly higher average erosion rates of 1-10 nm/yr in the Amazonian. These erosion rates are 2-5 orders of magnitude lower than the slowest continental denudation rates on Earth, indicating that liquid water was not an active erosional agent. Erosion rates for Meridiani just before deposition of the sulfate-rich sediments and other eroded Noachian areas are comparable with slow denudation rates on Earth that are dominated by liquid water. Available data suggest the climate change at the landing sites from wet and likely warm to dry and desiccating occurred sometime between the Late Noachian and the beginning of the Late Hesperian (3.7-3.5 Ga). Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

Prediction of ice‐free conditions for a perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lake

Although perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have middepth temperature maxima can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled the ice thickness of the west lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica, based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface

Does Lake Erie still have sufficient oxythermal habitat for cisco Coregonus artedi ?

In Lake Erie, cisco Coregonus artedi once supported one of the most valuable freshwater fisheries on earth, yet overfishing caused their eventual extirpation from the lake. With warming lake temperatures, some have questioned whether Lake Erie still contains suitable oxythermal conditions for cisco. Using published oxythermal thresholds for cisco and oxythermal profiles from Lake Erie, we sought to answer two questions critical to cisco restoration science. First, is cisco habitat still available during the most restrictive periods? Second, what is the distribution of cisco habitat during these times? Beta regression was used to determine that cisco habitat was most limited during the month of August, and that August of 2010 was the most restrictive period in the time series. We then used Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) to map the spatial extent of cisco habitat during these times. EBK maps revealed large areas of summer refugia for cisco in Lake Erie, even during the least favorable periods. Most of the Central and East Basins contain suitable habitat during the average August, yet during August of 2010, suitable conditions were limited to the eastern edge of the Central Basin and the deep waters of the East Basin. These findings align well with historical accounts of cisco landings. While suitable oxythermal habitat still exists for cisco in Lake Erie, future restoration efforts, if attempted, will partially depend on: 1) better management of nutrient inputs, 2) the realization of future climate scenarios, and 3) the ability of cisco to adapt to a changing lake.

Lake Erie

Ostracode-based reconstruction from 23,300 to about 20,250 cal yr BP of climate, and paleohydrology of a groundwater-fed pond near St. Louis, Missouri

The water chemistry of a groundwater-fed sinkhole-pond near St. Louis, Missouri, and its associated climate during the last glaciation are reconstructed by comparison with autecological data of modern ostracodes from about 5,500 sites in Canada. A 4.8-m succession of fossiliferous sediment yielded ostracode assemblages that collectively are generally found today in ponds in North America including the species Cyclocypris ampla, C. laevis, Cypridopsis vidua, Candona crogmaniana, C. distincta, and C. ohioensis. Fossils of Picea needles and the ostracode Cyclocypris sharpei imply that best analog sites for the succession are in central to south-central Canada. The pond formed 23,300 ?? 400 cal yr BP when a sinkhole became plugged by a clay bed about 1 m thick. By about 20,250 cal yr BP, the pond had desiccated and was buried by loess. The sediment accumulation rate was about 0.18 cm/yr, and each sample interval (6 cm) represents a time slice of ???33 years. Data from this record provides the first fairly high resolution proxy record of the glacial paleoclimate of the mid-latitude of North America. The analog data indicate the water in the hydrologically-open spring-fed pond was less than 1 m deep. The paleoclimatic reconstructions imply gradually drier conditions and uniform, cool temperatures. The shallow water depth indicates that the temperature reconstruction is robust with mean annual temperatures (MATs) that ranged between 0.8 and 3.9??C, and mean July temperatures that ranged from 16.8 and 18.1??C. Other estimated climatic parameters include mean annual precipitation (MAP; 430 to 840 mm/yr), and moisture balance (P-E; -111 to 298 mm/yr). Compared to values measured today at St. Louis, the MAP was about 400 mm less, MAT about 10??C cooler, and P-E, about the same. These values are consistent with other published reconstructions based on modern analog analysis of fossil beetles and pollen, and paleothermometry based on amino acid racemization. The total dissolved solids (TDS) progressively increased from about 87 to 431 mg/L. Changes in TDS reflect either the balance between the relative inputs of karst groundwater and overland flow, or changes in the duration of water-rock interaction associated with the groundwater. The postulated long-term 900 ?? 200 year cyclicity of growing-season moisture and temperature, attributed to El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles, is not expressed in the reconstructed hydrologic or climatic data. This is attributed, in part, to the mediating effect on temperature by monothermic groundwater input to this flow-through system.

Journal of Paleolimnology

Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

Florida

Interannual and long-term changes in the trophic state of a multibasin lake: Effects of morphology, climate, winter aeration, and beaver activity

Little St. Germain Lake (LSG), a relatively pristine multibasin lake in Wisconsin, USA, was examined to determine how morphologic (internal), climatic (external), anthropogenic (winter aeration), and natural (beaver activity) factors affect the trophic state (phosphorus, P; chlorophyll, CHL; and Secchi depth, SD) of each of its basins. Basins intercepting the main flow and external P sources had highest P and CHL and shallowest SD. Internal loading in shallow, polymictic basins caused P and CHL to increase and SD to decrease as summer progressed. Winter aeration used to eliminate winterkill increased summer internal P loading and decreased water quality, while reductions in upstream beaver impoundments had little effect on water quality. Variations in air temperature and precipitation affected each basin differently. Warmer air temperatures increased productivity throughout the lake and decreased clarity in less eutrophic basins. Increased precipitation increased P in the basins intercepting the main flow but had little effect on the isolated deep West Bay. These relations are used to project effects of future climatic changes on LSG and other temperate lakes.

Wisconsin

Seasonal manganese transport in the hyporheic zone of a snowmelt-dominated river (East River, Colorado)

Manganese (Mn) plays a critical role in river-water quality because Mn-oxides serve as sorption sites for contaminant metals. The aim of this study is to understand the seasonal cycling of Mn in an alpine streambed that experiences large spring snowmelt events and the potential responses to changes in snowmelt timing and magnitude. To address this goal, annual variations in river-water/groundwater interaction and Mn (aq) transport were measured and modeled in the bed of East River, Colorado, USA. In observations and numerical models, oxygenated river water containing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mixes with groundwater rich in Mn (aq) in the streambed. The mixing depth increases during spring snowmelt when river discharge increases, leading to a greater DOC supply to the hyporheic zone and net respiration of Mn-oxides, despite an enhanced supply of oxygen. As groundwater upwelling resumes during the subsequent baseflow period, Mn (aq) -rich groundwater mixes with oxygenated river water, resulting in net accumulation of Mn-oxides until the bed freezes in winter. To explore potential responses of Mn transport to different climate-induced hydrological regimes, three hydrograph scenarios were numerically modeled (historic, low-snow, and storm) for the Rocky Mountain region. In a warming climate, Mn (aq) export to the river decreases, and Mn (aq) oxidation is favored in the upper streambed sediments over more of the year. One important implication is that the streambed may have an increased sorption capacity for metals over more of the year, leading to potential changes in river-water quality.

Colorado