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Exploring the barriers for people taking protective actions during the 2012 and 2015 New Zealand shakeout drills

To reduce future earthquake injuries and casualties, it is important that people understand how their behavior, during and immediately following earthquake shaking, exposes them to increased risk of injury or death. Research confirms that protective actions can reduce injuries and that prior training can help prepare people to take appropriate actions. In this paper, we examine barriers to participation in the ShakeOut drills in New Zealand. Through citizen science research, volunteers observed people performing the drills in 2012 and 2015. Observers reported how long it took to perform the drill and why they thought some people may not have completed it. Our findings illustrate that children, elderly, and those with both mental and physical disabilities struggled with the drill. Furthermore, embarrassment was a reported leading cause for non-participation; we recommend more inclusive messaging to address potential causes of embarrassment.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Typology development of earthquake displays in free-choice learning environments, to inform earthquake early warning education in the United States

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase engagement in preparedness behavior. The ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System helps publics prepare by warning in advance of shaking from significant earthquakes along the West Coast of the United States. ShakeAlert can minimize earthquake damage by prompting automated actions (e.g., slowing trains, shutting off water valves) and prompting personal protective actions like “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” to significantly reduce damage, injury, and loss of life. Individuals and communities must have a basic understanding of earthquake hazards, as well as an awareness of ShakeAlert technology, to know how to respond if they feel shaking or receive an alert. Currently, there is a lack of contemporary scholarship on how free-choice learning environments approach earthquake education through exhibits and displays. We analyzed a sample of existing earthquake exhibits and their themes in the United States and explored how different display types are uniquely engaging. We found that most displays did not include information about how to prepare for an earthquake or associated protective actions. From this and the development of the typology, our research posits a foundational framework for how best to incorporate place-based learning on earthquakes and early warning into centers of free-choice learning which may apply to a range of other natural hazards and will enhance public awareness and safety.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

Effects of tow transit on the efficacy of the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal Electric Dispersal Barrier System

In 2016, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers undertook a field study in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Romeoville, Illinois to determine the influence of tow transit on the efficacy of the Electric Dispersal Barrier System (EDBS) in preventing the passage of juvenile fish (total length < 100 millimeters (mm)). Dual-frequency identification sonar data showed that large schools of juvenile fish (mean school size of 120 fish; n = 19) moved upstream and crossed the electric field of an array in the EDBS concurrent with downstream-bound (downbound) loaded tows in 89.5% of trials. Smaller schools of juvenile fish (mean school size of 98 fish; n = 15) moved downstream and crossed the electric field of an array in the EDBS concurrent with upstream-bound (upbound) loaded tows in 73.3% of trials. Observed fish passages through the EDBS were always opposite to the direction of tow movement, and not associated with propeller wash. These schools were not observed to breach the EDBS in the absence of a tow and showed no signs of incapacitation in the barrier during tow passage. Loaded tows transiting the EDBS create a return current of water flowing between the tow and the canal wall that typically travels opposite the direction of tow movement, and cause a decrease in the voltage gradient of the barrier of up to 88%. Return currents and decreases in voltage gradients induced by tow passage likely contributed to the observed fish passage through the EDBS. The efficacy of the EDBS in preventing the passage of small, wild fish is compromised while tows are moving across the barrier system. In particular, downbound tows moving through the EDBS create a pathway for the upstream movement of small fish, and therefore may increase the risk of transfer of invasive fishes from the Mississippi River Basin to the Great Lakes Basin.

Illinois↗

Context-dependent variation in persistence of host populations in the face of disease

Research Highlight : Valenzuela-Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R., & Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology , 00 , 1– 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13603 . Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long-term mark–recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life-history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species ( Rhinoderma darwinii ). Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease-free populations. Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context-dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

Region-wide trends of nesting ospreys in northwestern Mexico: a three-decade perspective

We used a double-sampling technique (air plus ground survey) in 2006, with partial double coverage, to estimate the present size of the Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting population in northwestern Mexico (coastal Baja California, islands in the Gulf of California, and coastal Sonora and Sinaloa). With the exception of Natividad, Cedros, and San Benitos islands along the Pacific coast of Baja California (all three excluded from our coverage in 2006 due to fog), this survey was a repeat of previous surveys conducted by us with the same protocol in 1977 and 1992/1993, allowing for estimates of regional population trends. The minimum population estimate for the area we surveyed in 2006 was 1343 nesting pairs, an 81% increase since 1977, but only a 3% increase since 1992/1993. The population on the Gulf side of Baja California generally remained stable during the three surveys (255, 236, and 252 pairs, respectively). The population of the Midriff Islands (Gulf of California in the vicinity of 29°N latitude) remained similar from 1992/1993 (308 pairs) to 2006 (289 pairs), but with notable population changes on the largest two islands (Guardian Angel: 45 to 105 pairs [133% increase]; Tiburón: 164 to 109 pairs [34% decrease]). The minimum estimated Osprey population on the Sonora mainland decreased in a manner similar to adjacent Isla Tiburón, i.e., by 26%, from 214 pairs in 1993 to 158 pairs in 2006. In contrast, the population in coastal Sinaloa, which had increased by 150% between 1977 and 1993, grew again by 58% between 1993 and 2006, from 180 to 285 pairs. Our survey confirmed previously described patterns of rapid population changes at a local level, coupled with apparent shifts in spatial distribution. The large ground-nesting population that until recently nested on two islands in San Ignacio Lagoon ( Pacific Ocean side, Baja California) was no longer present on the islands in 2006, but an equivalent number of pairs were found to the north and south of the lagoon, nesting in small towns and along adjoining overhead electric lines, with no overall change in population size for that general area (198 pairs in 1992; 199 in 2006). Use of artificial nesting structures was 4.3% in 1977 and 6.2% in 1992/1993, but jumped to 26.4% in 2006. Use of poles that support overhead electric lines poses a risk of electrocution to Ospreys and also causes power outages and fires. We recommend modification of these poles to safely accommodate Osprey nests, as has been successfully accomplished in many countries.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in at-risk institutional settings such as schools. For example, there has been limited research on how to best integrate earthquake early warning into existing emergency plans, alert systems, and drills to keep school children and personnel safe in an earthquake. To address this gap, in the spring of 2022, every school district superintendent in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington was sent a 15-min online survey. The survey assessed superintendent knowledge of ShakeAlert, preferences for alert messaging, and perceived opportunities and barriers to incorporating the system in schools. The results showed that superintendents had low awareness of ShakeAlert but held positive perceptions of the system's potential to enable life-saving protective actions. A major barrier to adoption included the perceived financial cost of implementing and maintaining the system. There were some statistically significant differences in state responses, and future research could investigate the specific needs of each state based on school district size and composition, hazard exposure, and earthquake experience. Together these findings can help inform targeted strategies to increase ShakeAlert adoption in schools and ultimately improve the safety of school children and staff during earthquakes.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington↗

Application of novel encounter and predation models to the natural behavior of slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus

Sculpins play a critical mid-trophic role in lacustrine food webs, converting production by benthic and migrating pelagic invertebrates into biomass available to higher trophic levels. Although sculpin diets and habitat choices are relatively well described, much less is known about their in situ behavior which governs trophic interactions and, in part, prey behavior. We measured the natural behavior of slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus in Lake Champlain using video data originally collected to quantify Mysis diluviana abundance in benthic habitat. After characterizing slimy sculpin movement behaviors according to body size, we incorporated these data into encounter and predation rate models at the individual and population levels, the latter based on bottom trawl data from Lake Champlain. Saltatory movement varied with body length in terms of distance traveled, duration traveled, and duration at rest, but strike distances at prey did not vary across individual sculpins. Slimy sculpin predation rate increased with depth and was limited by pursuit time rather than prey availability, and their populations exerted predation rates on Mysis up to 5 predation events/m 2 /day. Assessment of benthic predation risks affords the opportunity to test hypotheses about the role of predation risk in Mysis diel vertical migration (DVM), and DVM more broadly. Furthermore, the methods we describe here can easily be employed for other benthic fishes such as the invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus .

New York, Vermont↗

Mating behavior as a possible cause of bat fatalities at wind turbines

Bats are killed by wind turbines in North America and Europe in large numbers, yet a satisfactory explanation for this phenomenon remains elusive. Most bat fatalities at turbines thus far occur during late summer and autumn and involve species that roost in trees. In this commentary I draw on existing literature to illustrate how previous behavioral observations of the affected species might help explain these fatalities. I hypothesize that tree bats collide with turbines while engaging in mating behaviors that center on the tallest trees in a landscape, and that such behaviors stem from 2 different mating systems (resource defense polygyny and lekking). Bats use vision to move across landscapes and might react to the visual stimulus of turbines as they do to tall trees. This scenario has serious conservation and management implications. If mating bats are drawn to turbines, wind energy facilities may act as population sinks and risk may be hard to assess before turbines are built. Researchers could observe bat behavior and experimentally manipulate trees, turbines, or other tall structures to test the hypothesis that tree bats mate at the tallest trees. If this hypothesis is supported, management actions aimed at decreasing the attractiveness of turbines to tree bats may help alleviate the problem.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

A Bayesian-based system to assess wave-driven flooding hazards on coral reef-lined coasts

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, “XBNH”) was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a “Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments” (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Chemical controls for an integrated pest management program

Chemical controls ranging from natural products to synthesized chemicals are widely used in aquatic pest management activities. Chemicals can be used to lure organisms to traps or can cause direct mortality by altering the physiological function of an organism. Much of what is known about controlling pests with chemicals is from research done on terrestrial pesticides. This paper focuses on how chemicals might be used as aquatic pesticides to control or eradicate aquatic invasive species. Current control tools are described, as are new technologies designed to selectively target the pest to reduce risks to nontarget organisms and the environment.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Diversification of forest management can mitigate wind damage risk and maintain biodiversity

Mitigating future forest risks, safeguarding timber revenues and improving biodiversity are key considerations for current boreal forest management. Alternatives to rotation forestry likely have an important role, but how they will perform under a changing climate remains unclear. We used a boreal forest growth simulator to explore how variations on traditional clear-cutting, in rotation length, thinning intensity, and increasing number of remaining trees after final harvest (green tree retention), and on extent of continuous cover forestry will affect stand-level probability of wind damage, timber production, deadwood volume, and habitats for forest species. We used business-as-usual rotation forestry as a baseline and compared alternative management adaptations under the reference and two climate change scenarios. Climate change increased overall timber production and had lower impacts on biodiversity compared to management adaptations. Shortening the rotation length reduced the probability of wind damage compared to business-as-usual, but also decreased both deadwood volume and suitable habitats for our focal species. Continuous cover forestry, and management with refraining from thinnings, and extension of rotation length represent complementary approaches benefiting biodiversity, with respective effects of improving timber revenues, reducing wind damage risk, and benefiting old-growth forest structures. However, extensive application of rotation length shortening to mitigate wind damage risk may be detrimental for forest biodiversity. To safeguard forest biodiversity over the landscape, shortening of the rotation length could be complemented with widespread application of regimes promoting old-growth forest structures.

European Journal of Forest Research↗

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Linking environmental risk assessment and communication: An experiment in co-evolving scientific and social knowledge

Dissemination of information to decision-makers and enhanced methods of public participation are often put forward as antidotes to a perceived disconnect between risk assessment and risk communication in the public domain. However, mechanisms that support both the provision of routine, timely and relevant technical knowledge to the public and meaningful opportunities for public participation in the evaluation and management of risk are few. We argue for the need to re-conceptualise the institutional context in which risk research and communication occur as one in which scientific knowledge and public understanding are co-evolutionary instead of independent or sequential. Here, we report on an experiment to promote coevolution of environmental risk assessment and risk communication through the instrumental use of a web-based platform that dynamically links expert and public discourses through common information sources, linked scenario evaluations, and opportunities for iterative dialogue. On the basis of technical feasibility, research value and public communication capacity, we conclude that there is potential for further refinement of the methodologies presented here. Copyright ?? 2008 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

International Journal of Global Environmental Issu↗

Differential exposure, duration, and sensitivity of unionoidean bivalve life stages to environmental contaminants

Freshwater mussels (superfamily Unionoidea) are in serious global decline and in urgent need of protection and conservation. The declines have been attributed to a wide array of human activities resulting in pollution and water-quality degradation, and habitat destruction and alteration. Linkages among poor water quality, pollutant sources, and mussel decline in rivers and streams have been associated with results of laboratory-based tests of specific pollutants. However, uncertainties remain about the relationship of laboratory data to actual contaminant exposure routes for various mussel species, life stages, and in the habitats occupied during these exposures. We evaluated the pathways of exposure to environmental pollutants for all 4 life stages (free glochidia, encysted glochidia, juveniles, adults) of unionoidean mussels and found that each life stage has both common and unique characteristics that contribute to observed differences in exposure and sensitivity. Free glochidia typically are exposed only briefly (e.g., seconds to days) through surface water, whereas adults sustain exposure over years to decades through surface water, pore water, sediment, and diet. Juveniles live largely burrowed in the sediment for the first 0 to 4 y of life. Thus, sediment, pore water, and diet are the predominant exposure routes for this life stage, but surface water also might contribute to exposure during certain periods and environmental conditions. The obligate parasitic stage (encysted glochidia stage) on a host fish might be exposed from surface water while partially encysted or from toxicants in host-fish tissue while fully encysted. Laboratory methods for testing for acute and chronic exposures in water have advanced, and toxicant-specific information has increased in recent years. However, additional research is needed to understand interactions of life history, habitat, and long-term exposure to contaminants through water, pore water, sediment, and diet so that the risks of environmental exposures can be properly assessed and managed. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

Mycoplasma agassizii in Morafka's desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Mexico

We conducted health evaluations of 69 wild and 22 captive Morafka's desert tortoises ( Gopherus morafkai ) in Mexico between 2005 and 2008. The wild tortoises were from 11 sites in the states of Sonora and Sinaloa, and the captive tortoises were from the state-managed Centro Ecol&oacute;gico de Sonora Zoo in Hermosillo and a private residence in the town of Alamos. We tested 88 tortoises for mycoplasmal upper respiratory tract disease (URTD) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for specific antibody and by culture and PCR for detection of Mycoplasma agassizii and Mycoplasma testudineum . Fifteen of 22 captive tortoises had one or more positive diagnostic test results for M. agassizii whereas no wild tortoises had positive tests. Tortoises with positive tests also had significantly more moderate and severe clinical signs of mycoplasmosis on beaks and nares compared to tortoises with negative tests. Captive tortoises also exhibited significantly more clinical signs of illness than did wild tortoises, including lethargy and moderate to severe ocular signs. The severity of trauma and diseases of the shell and integument did not differ significantly among tortoises by site; however, clinical signs of moderate to severe trauma and disease were more prevalent in older tortoises. Similar to research findings for other species in the genus Gopherus in the US, we found that URTD is an important disease in captive tortoises. If they escape or are released by intention or accident to the wild, captive tortoises are likely to pose risks to healthy, na&iuml;ve wild populations.

Sinaloa, Sonora↗

Minimal diel vertical migration and consistent zooplankton capturability in low productivity reservoirs, Oregon

Diel migrations of zooplanktons occur in marine and freshwater systems and can complicate inferences from studies. If populations perform vertical or horizontal diel migrations, daytime-only sampling can mischaracterize distributions and abundances. Zooplanktons also often display reduced capture avoidance at night and occupy areas easier to sample near the surface and away from littoral structure and the benthos. We examined zooplankton abundance, water column position and taxonomic composition during daytime and nighttime new moon periods using discrete depth sampling in oligo-mesotrophic reservoirs in Oregon, USA. These reservoirs have limited littoral structures, but support populations of zooplanktivorous fishes that we expected to drive diel vertical migrations. Contrary to our expectations, at night, most zooplankton taxa were within 2 m of their daytime distributional peak and did not display differences in abundance from day to night sampling. We consider factors that may help predict whether diel vertical migration occurs in a system. Where daytime sampling is sufficient to characterize zooplankton densities and distributions, costs and risks specific to nighttime sampling may be avoided. Improving our knowledge of zooplankton dynamics, particularly in ecosystems with limited diurnal variability, is an important part of understanding lake and reservoir food webs and can optimize the efforts of future studies.

Oregon↗

Relative abundance, seasonal occurrence, and distribution of marine birds in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Marine birds in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have long been poorly studied. Given statutory obligations to protect migratory birds and endangered species, three broad-scale vessel and aerial programs initiated since 2010 have now surveyed the entire northern Gulf. Vessel coverage alone exceeds 700 d and 74,000 km of observer effort using 300-m strip transects. We supplemented these survey data with earlier, smaller-scale studies, eBird checklists, literature reviews, and other less accessible sources to create snapshot summaries of relative abundance, seasonal occurrence, and regional distribution for 117 taxa of marine and water birds reported from the northern Gulf (113 of which were substantiated with physical evidence). Using taxonomic and functional criteria, we identified 56 taxa characteristic of open shelf, slope, and pelagic waters (federal jurisdiction), 41 taxa with primarily coastal affinities (state and federal jurisdiction), and 20 taxa of sea and diving ducks. High species richness of marine birds in the northern Gulf is attributed to (1) a temperate-to-tropical gradient facilitating diverse marine environments year-round; (2) varied geographic origins of marine bird species using the Gulf; and (3) a mostly enclosed sea basin acting as a vagrant trap for wide-ranging species. Our taxonomic list and status updates seek to bridge information gaps for marine birds now subject to accelerated commercial uses of this region's continental shelf, including newly proposed offshore wind energy development. Other applications include guiding risk and vulnerability assessments of Gulf marine birds, providing core content for seabird observer training, and prioritizing environmental impact reviews and monitoring programs in offshore energy construction and operations plans.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗

Earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the conterminous United States and its sources of uncertainty

Relatively little research has been conducted to systematically quantify the nationwide earthquake risk of gas pipelines in the US; simultaneously, national guidance is limited for operators across the country to consistently evaluate the earthquake risk of their assets. Furthermore, many challenges and uncertainties exist in a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines. As a first stage in a systematic nationwide assessment, we quantify the earthquake risk of gas transmission pipelines in the conterminous US due to strong ground shaking, including the associated uncertainties. Specifically, we integrate the US Geological Survey 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model, a logic tree–based exposure model, three different vulnerability models, and a consequence model. The results enable comparison against other risk assessment efforts, encourage more transparent deliberation regarding alternative approaches, and facilitate decisions on potentially assessing localized risks due to ground failures that require site-specific data. Based on the uncertainties approximated herein, the resulting sensitivity analyses suggest that the vulnerability model is the most influential source of uncertainty. Finally, we highlight research needs such as (1) developing more vulnerability models for regional seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines; (2) identifying, prioritizing, and measuring input pipeline attributes that are important for estimating seismic damage; and (3) better quantifying seismic hazards with their uncertainties at the national scale, for both ground failures and ground shaking.

conterminous United States↗