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USGS2018

Extinction risk and conservation options for Maui Parrotbill, an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Extinction rates for island birds around the world have been historically high. For forest passerines, the Hawaiian archipelago has suffered some of the highest extinction rates and reintroduction is a conservation tool that can be used to prevent the extinction of some of the remaining endangered species. Population viability analyses can be used to assess risks to vulnerable populations and evaluate the relative benefits of conservation strategies. Here we present a population viability analysis to assess the long-term viability for Maui parrotbill(s) (Kiwikiu) Pseudonestor xanthophrys, a federally endangered passerine on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Contrary to indications from population monitoring, our results indicate Maui parrotbills may be unlikely to persist beyond 25 years. Our modeling suggests female mortality as a primary factor driving this decline. To evaluate and compare management options involving captive rearing and translocation strategies we made a female-only stage-structured, meta-population simulation model. Due to the low reproductive potential of Maui parrotbills in captivity, the number of individuals (~ 20% of the global population) needed to source a reintroduction solely from captive reared birds is unrealistic. A reintroduction strategy that incorporates a minimal contribution from captivity and instead translocates mostly wild individuals was found to be the most feasible management option. Habitat is being restored on leeward east Maui, which may provide more favorable climate and habitat conditions and promote increased reproductive output. Our model provides managers with benchmarks for fecundity and survival needed to ensure reintroduction success, and highlights the importance of establishing a new population in potentially favorable habitat to ensure long-term persistence.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2012

Bird use of fields treated postharvest with two types of flooding in Tulare Basin, California

We surveyed birds on grain and non-grain fields in the Tulare Basin of California treated post-harvest with two types of flooding that varied in duration and depth of water applied (Flooded-type fields [FLD]: <1 cm-1.5 m for >1 week; Irrigated-type fields [IRG]: <1-15 cm water for <1 week at a time). Our goal was to compare use of these field types by birds to guide habitat conservation in the region. During 19 August-6 December 2005, we counted a total of 80,316 birds during 23 surveys of 5 FLD (4 wheat, 1 alfalfa) fields and 8,225 birds during 38 surveys of 33 IRG (23 cotton, 4 tomato, 3 wheat, 1 alfalfa, 1 oat, 1 fallow) fields. We recorded 14 waterfowl (13 duck, 1 goose), 29 other waterbird (coots, shorebirds, grebes, pelicans, herons, egrets, gulls, terns), and 14 non-waterbird (passerines, raptors, and vultures) species on FLD fields compared to 5 duck, 14 other waterbird, and 9 non-waterbird species on IRG fields. Species composition differed by field type; waterfowl (FLD vs. IRG, 16.2% vs. 1.3%) and other waterbirds (80.4% vs. 71.6%) comprised a greater percentage and non-waterbirds (3.5% vs. 27.1%) a lower percentage of birds on FLD than on IRG fields. The modeled density estimate of waterfowl was 108 times greater on FLD than IRG fields and 7.4 times greater on grain than non-grain fields. The density estimate of other waterbirds was 11.8 times greater on FLD than IRG fields and 4.4 times greater on grain than non-grain fields. The density estimate of non-waterbirds was 14.3 times greater on grain than non-grain fields but did not differ by flood type. Long duration (i.e., >1 week) flooding increased waterbird use of grain fields in the Tulare Basin more than in the northern Central Valley. Thus, even though water costs are high in the Tulare Basin, if net benefit to waterbirds is considered, management programs that increase availability of FLD-type fields (especially grain) in the Tulare Basin may be a cost-effective option to help meet waterbird habitat conservation goals in the Central Valley of California.

California↗

USGS2014

Exposure pathways and biological receptors: baseline data for the canyon uranium mine, Coconino County, Arizona

Recent restrictions on uranium mining within the Grand Canyon watershed have drawn attention to scientific data gaps in evaluating the possible effects of ore extraction to human populations as well as wildlife communities in the area. Tissue contaminant concentrations, one of the most basic data requirements to determine exposure, are not available for biota from any historical or active uranium mines in the region. The Canyon Uranium Mine is under development, providing a unique opportunity to characterize concentrations of uranium and other trace elements, as well as radiation levels in biota, found in the vicinity of the mine before ore extraction begins. Our study objectives were to identify contaminants of potential concern and critical contaminant exposure pathways for ecological receptors; conduct biological surveys to understand the local food web and refine the list of target species (ecological receptors) for contaminant analysis; and collect target species for contaminant analysis prior to the initiation of active mining. Contaminants of potential concern were identified as arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, thallium, uranium, and zinc for chemical toxicity and uranium and associated radionuclides for radiation. The conceptual exposure model identified ingestion, inhalation, absorption, and dietary transfer (bioaccumulation or bioconcentration) as critical contaminant exposure pathways. The biological survey of plants, invertebrates, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and small mammals is the first to document and provide ecological information on .200 species in and around the mine site; this study also provides critical baseline information about the local food web. Most of the species documented at the mine are common to ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa and pinyon–juniper Pinus–Juniperus spp. forests in northern Arizona and are not considered to have special conservation status by state or federal agencies; exceptions are the locally endemic Tusayan flameflower Phemeranthus validulus, the long-legged bat Myotis volans, and the Arizona bat Myotis occultus. The most common vertebrate species identified at the mine site included the Mexican spadefoot toad Spea multiplicata, plateau fence lizard Sceloporus tristichus, violetgreen swallow Tachycineta thalassina, pygmy nuthatch Sitta pygmaea, purple martin Progne subis, western bluebird Sialia mexicana, deermouse Peromyscus maniculatus, valley pocket gopher Thomomys bottae, cliff chipmunk Tamias dorsalis, black-tailed jackrabbit Lepus californicus, mule deer Odocoileus hemionus, and elk Cervus canadensis. A limited number of the most common species were collected for contaminant analysis to establish baseline contaminant and radiological concentrations prior to ore extraction. These empirical baseline data will help validate contaminant exposure pathways and potential threats from contaminant exposures to ecological receptors. Resource managers will also be able to use these data to determine the extent to which local species are exposed to chemical and radiation contamination once the mine is operational and producing ore. More broadly, these data could inform resource management decisions on mitigating chemical and radiation exposure of biota at high-grade uranium breccia pipes throughout the Grand Canyon watershed.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Roosting habitat use by sandhill cranes and waterfowl on the North and South Platte Rivers in Nebraska

Migration ecology and habitat use of spring migrating birds using the Central Platte River is a well-explored topic, yet less is known about use of the North and South Platte rivers (NSPR) in western Nebraska. The efficiency and effectiveness of conservation efforts in the NSPR could be greatly improved with access to information about where and when birds roost and landscape prioritization tools. We used aerial surveys to determine population distribution and migration phenology of sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis , Canada geese Branta canadensis , and ducks using the NSPR for roosting during the mid-February to mid-April spring migration. We used these data and geospatial information to identify important river reaches for these species and habitat covariates that discriminate between those used at lower and higher densities. We found that sandhill cranes and waterfowl generally roosted in different segments of the NSPR and, subsequently, different factors were associated with high densities. Sandhill crane density was positively correlated with distance from obstructions greater than 1 m high and negatively correlated with area of unvegetated sandbar within 1 km. Density of Canada geese and ducks was high in segments positively associated with wetland and sand pit habitats. Human disturbance variables such as roads and bridges in this rural region had little effect on identification of roosting areas used by high densities of all groups. On the basis of our results, habitat conservation efforts that specifically target sandhill cranes will not have similar positive effects on waterfowl use and distribution in the NSPR. Our identification of the most important river segments should allow managers to better target land acquisition or management resources to areas that will have the greatest effect on either waterfowl or sandhill cranes during spring migration.

Nebraska↗

USGS2015

A new panel of SNP markers for the individual identification of North American pumas

Pumas Puma concolor are one of the most studied terrestrial carnivores because of their widespread distribution, substantial ecological impacts, and conflicts with humans. Over the past decade, managing pumas has involved extensive efforts including the use of genetic methods. Microsatellites have been the most commonly used genetic markers; however, technical artifacts and little overlap of frequently used loci render large-scale comparison of puma genetic data across studies challenging. Therefore, a panel of genetic markers that can produce consistent genotypes across studies without the need for extensive calibrations is essential for range-wide genetic management of puma populations. Here, we describe the development of PumaPlex, a high-throughput assay to genotype 25 single nucleotide polymorphisms in pumas. We validated PumaPlex in 748 North American pumas Puma concolor couguar, and demonstrated its ability to generate reproducible genotypes and accurately identify individuals. Furthermore, in a test using fecal deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) samples, we found that PumaPlex produced significantly more genotypes with fewer errors than 12 microsatellite loci, 8 of which are commonly used. Our results demonstrate that PumaPlex is a valuable tool for the genetic monitoring and management of North American puma populations. Given the analytical simplicity, reproducibility, and high-throughput capability of single nucleotide polymorphisms, PumaPlex provides a standard panel of markers that promotes the comparison of genotypes across studies and independent of the genotyping technology used.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex , an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Persistence-based area prioritization for conservation: Applying occupancy and habitat threats and risks analyses

Effective habitat conservation is predicated on maintaining high levels or increasing local persistence probability of the species it purports to protect. Thus, methodological approaches that improve the inferential value of local persistence are of utmost value to guide conservation planning as they inform area selection processes. Herein we used the painted bunting Passerina ciris, a species of conservation interest in North Carolina, as an illustrative case that combined single-season, single-species occupancy analyses and a threats and risk decision support tool to rank five areas of conservation interest in terms of local persistence probability. We used survey data from two seasons (2008–2009) grouped into 21 natal dispersal sampling units and land-cover data from 12 habitat classes to establish the relationship between local occupancy probability and habitat. Occupancy increased most strongly with increasing amount of maritime forest. Projections to year 2050, relative to year 2000, indicated that a potential loss of maritime forest of 200–1,300 ha, depending on the area of interest. Projected loss was lowest at Bald Head Island–Wilmington (2%) and highest at Camp Lejune (27%). Bald Head Island–Wilmington ranked highest in projected local persistence probability (0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53–0.99), whereas Top Sail–Hammocks Beach Park ranked lowest (0.28; 95% CI = 0.03–0.82). Estimates of local persistence offer decision-makers another criterion to prioritize areas for conservation and help guide efforts aimed at maintaining or enhancing local persistence. These include in situ habitat management, expanding or connecting existing areas of interest. In the future, we recommend the use of multiseason occupancy models, coupled with measures of uncertainty of land-cover projections, to strengthen inferences about local persistence, particularly useful in nonstationary landscapes driven by human activities.

North Carolina↗

USGS2021

Retention and dimensional changes of evergreen brush piles within a flood control reservoir

Brush piles (i.e., trees and large woody debris) are often installed in reservoirs to supplement fish habitat. The retention and dimensional change of brush piles after installation is important information that can be used to maximize the effectiveness of this management action. We evaluated the retention and dimensional change of 70 eastern red cedar Juniperus virginiana and bald cypress Taxodium distichum brush piles in an embayment of a drawdown reservoir up to four annual cycles of submergence and exposure. We used satellite imagery to supplement our onsite measurements of retention. We also examined spatial patterns of brush pile retention and dimensional change. Brush piles were lost at 10% per year, and their volume was lost at 14% per year. We compared our rates of brush pile retention and dimensional change with those from a holdout data set of 50 brush piles. Estimates between data sets did not differ statistically. Spatial patterns of retention and dimensional change coincided with morphological features in our study area, suggesting that retention and dimensional change is influenced by variable physical forces (e.g., wave action and flow) at installation locations. Our estimates of brush pile retention and dimensional change can be used to generally sustain desirable brush densities. For example, to maintain a fixed total volume of brush in our study embayment, roughly 23% of the total brush volume installed would need to be replaced annually. Similar research in reservoirs managed for other purposes is needed, as length and cycle of inundation could lead to variable rates of retention and dimensional change. Additionally, advancements into computer-assisted detection and volume estimation could reduce the time and effort needed to monitor brush piles.

Mississippi↗

USGS2016

Enhancing and restoring habitat for the desert tortoise

Habitat has changed unfavorably during the past 150 y for the desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii , a federally threatened species with declining populations in the Mojave Desert and western Sonoran Desert. To support recovery efforts, we synthesized published information on relationships of desert tortoises with three habitat features (cover sites, forage, and soil) and candidate management practices for improving these features for tortoises. In addition to their role in soil health and facilitating recruitment of annual forage plants, shrubs are used by desert tortoises for cover and as sites for burrows. Outplanting greenhouse-grown seedlings, protected from herbivory, has successfully restored (>50% survival) a variety of shrubs on disturbed desert soils. Additionally, salvaging and reapplying topsoil using effective techniques is among the more ecologically beneficial ways to initiate plant recovery after severe disturbance. Through differences in biochemical composition and digestibility, some plant species provide better-quality forage than others. Desert tortoises selectively forage on particular annual and herbaceous perennial species (e.g., legumes), and forage selection shifts during the year as different plants grow or mature. Nonnative grasses provide low-quality forage and contribute fuel to spreading wildfires, which damage or kill shrubs that tortoises use for cover. Maintaining a diverse “menu” of native annual forbs and decreasing nonnative grasses are priorities for restoring most desert tortoise habitats. Reducing herbivory by nonnative animals, carefully timing herbicide applications, and strategically augmenting annual forage plants via seeding show promise for improving tortoise forage quality. Roads, another disturbance, negatively affect habitat in numerous ways (e.g., compacting soil, altering hydrology). Techniques such as recontouring road berms to reestablish drainage patterns, vertical mulching (“planting” dead plant material), and creating barriers to prevent trespasses can assist natural recovery on decommissioned backcountry roads. Most habitat enhancement efforts to date have focused on only one factor at a time (e.g., providing fencing) and have not included proactive restoration activities (e.g., planting native species on disturbed soils). A research and management priority in recovering desert tortoise habitats is implementing an integrated set of restorative habitat enhancements (e.g., reducing nonnative plants, improving forage quality, augmenting native perennial plants, and ameliorating altered hydrology) and monitoring short- and long-term indicators of habitat condition and the responses of desert tortoises to habitat restoration.

Mojave Desert↗

USGS2016

Active season microhabitat and vegetation selection by giant gartersnakes associated with a restored marsh in California

Studies of habitat selection can reveal important patterns to guide habitat restoration and management for species of conservation concern. Giant gartersnakes Thamnophis gigas are endemic to the Central Valley of California, where >90% of their historical wetland habitat has been converted to agricultural and other uses. Information about the selection of habitats by individual giant gartersnakes would guide habitat restoration by indicating which habitat features and vegetation types are likely to be selected by these rare snakes. We examined activity patterns and selection of microhabitats and vegetation types by adult female giant gartersnakes with radiotelemetry at a site composed of rice agriculture and restored wetlands using a paired case-control study design. Adult female giant gartersnakes were 14.7 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 9.4–23.7) times more likely to be active (foraging, mating, or moving) when located in aquatic habitats than when located in terrestrial habitats. Microhabitats associated with cover—particularly emergent vegetation, terrestrial vegetation, and litter—were positively selected by giant gartersnakes. Individual giant gartersnakes varied greatly in their selection of rice and rock habitats, but varied little in their selection of open water. Tules Schoenoplectus acutus were the most strongly selected vegetation type, and duckweed Lemna spp., water-primrose Ludwigia spp., forbs, and grasses also were positively selected at the levels of availability observed at our study site. Management practices that promote the interface of water with emergent aquatic and herbaceous terrestrial vegetation will likely benefit giant gartersnakes. Given their strong selection of tules, restoration of native tule marshes will likely provide the greatest benefit to these threatened aquatic snakes.

California↗

USGS2021

Sexual dimorphism in morphology and plumage of endangered Yuma Ridgway’s Rails: A model for documenting sex

Many applications in wildlife management require knowledge of the sex of individual animals. The Yuma Ridgway's rail Rallus obsoletus yumanensis is an endangered marsh bird with monomorphic plumage and secretive behaviors, thereby complicating sex determination in field studies. We collected morphometric measurements from 270 adult Yuma Ridgway's rails and quantified the plumage and mandible color of 91 of those individuals throughout their geographic range to evaluate intersexual differences in morphology and coloration. We genetically sexed a subset of adult Yuma Ridgway's rails ( n = 101) and used these individuals to determine the optimal combination of measurements (based on discriminant function analyses) to distinguish between sexes. Males averaged significantly larger than females in all measurements, and the optimal discriminant function contained whole leg, culmen, and tail measurements and classified correctly 97.8% (95% CI: 92.5–100.0%) of genetically sexed individuals. We used two additional functions that classified correctly ≥ 95.6% of genetically sexed Yuma Ridgway's rails to assign sex to individuals with missing measurements. These simple models provide managers and researchers with a practical tool to determine the sex of Yuma Ridgway's rails based on morphometric measurements. Although color measurements were not in the most accurate discriminant functions, we quantified subtle intersexual differences in the color of mandibles and greater coverts of Yuma Ridgway's rails. These results document sex-specific patterns in coloration that allow future researchers to test hypotheses to determine the mechanisms underlying sex-based differences in plumage coloration.

Arizona, California, Nevada↗

USGS2015

Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata , white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura , Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla , collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii , Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra , black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus , and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi . The endangered Mariana crow (x̄ = 81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI = 815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba , rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae , and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca . Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

Rota↗

USGS2017

Indicator-driven conservation planning across terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine ecosystems of the south Atlantic, USA

Systematic conservation planning, a widely used approach to identify priority lands and waters, uses efficient, defensible, and transparent methods aimed at conserving biodiversity and ecological systems. Limited financial resources and competing land uses can be major impediments to conservation; therefore, participation of diverse stakeholders in the planning process is advantageous to help address broad-scale threats and challenges of the 21st century. Although a broad extent is needed to identify core areas and corridors for fish and wildlife populations, a fine-scale resolution is needed to manage for multiple, interconnected ecosystems. Here, we developed a conservation plan using a systematic approach to promote landscape-level conservation within the extent of the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Our objective was to identify the highest-ranked 30% of lands and waters within the South Atlantic deemed necessary to conserve ecological and cultural integrity for the 10 primary ecosystems of the southeastern United States. These environments varied from terrestrial, freshwater aquatic, and marine. The planning process was driven by indicators of ecosystem integrity at a 4-ha resolution. We used the program Zonation and 28 indicators to optimize the identification of lands and waters to meet the stated objective. A novel part of our study was the prioritization of multiple ecosystems, and we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach. The evaluation of indicator representation within prioritizations was a useful method to show where improvements could be made; some indicators dictated hotspots, some had a limited extent and were well represented, and others had a limited effect. Overall, we demonstrate that a broad-scale (408,276 km 2 of terrestrial and 411,239 km 2 of marine environments) conservation plan can be realized at a fine-scale resolution, which will allow implementation of the regional plan at a local level relevant to decision making.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Predicting occupancy for pygmy rabbits in Wyoming: an independent evaluation of two species distribution models

Species distribution models are an important component of natural-resource conservation planning efforts. Independent, external evaluation of their accuracy is important before they are used in management contexts. We evaluated the classification accuracy of two species distribution models designed to predict the distribution of pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis habitat in southwestern Wyoming, USA. The Nature Conservancy model was deductive and based on published information and expert opinion, whereas the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model was statistically derived using historical observation data. We randomly selected 187 evaluation survey points throughout southwestern Wyoming in areas predicted to be habitat and areas predicted to be nonhabitat for each model. The Nature Conservancy model correctly classified 39 of 77 (50.6%) unoccupied evaluation plots and 65 of 88 (73.9%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 63.3%. The Wyoming Natural Diversity Database model correctly classified 53 of 95 (55.8%) unoccupied plots and 59 of 88 (67.0%) occupied plots for an overall classification success of 61.2%. Based on 95% asymptotic confidence intervals, classification success of the two models did not differ. The models jointly classified 10.8% of the area as habitat and 47.4% of the area as nonhabitat, but were discordant in classifying the remaining 41.9% of the area. To evaluate how anthropogenic development affected model predictive success, we surveyed 120 additional plots among three density levels of gas-field road networks. Classification success declined sharply for both models as road-density level increased beyond 5 km of roads per km-squared area. Both models were more effective at predicting habitat than nonhabitat in relatively undeveloped areas, and neither was effective at accounting for the effects of gas-energy-development road networks. Resource managers who wish to know the amount of pygmy rabbit habitat present in an area or wanting to direct gas-drilling efforts away from pygmy rabbit habitat may want to consider both models in an ensemble manner, where more confidence is placed in mapped areas (i.e., pixels) for which both models agree than for areas where there is model disagreement.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Identifying the forage base and critical forage taxa for Chesapeake waterbirds

To effectively maximize the conservation value of management plans intended to capture ecosystem-wide health, it is essential to obtain an understanding of emergent patterns in dietary dynamics spanning many species. Chesapeake Bay, USA, is a critical ecosystem used annually by a diverse assortment of waterbird species, including several of conservation concern. However, the ecosystem is threatened by many ecological pressures driven largely by the dense human population of the surrounding region. These issues necessitate proactive monitoring and management efforts to track the health of ecosystems like the Chesapeake Bay. Such monitoring efforts of population dynamics require adequate data on the connections between trophic levels to understand how changes to the forage base might influence higher trophic levels, such as these diverse avian predators. However, we have historically lacked standardized quantitative data drawing these connections at the community level, as well as the relative importance of these taxa in the diet of such predators. We collated existing quantitative data on avian dietary composition to construct a database on the diets of 58 waterbird species that make use of the Chesapeake Bay. From this database, we quantified the relative importance of forage taxa to the diet of each waterbird species. Such data can enable managers to develop a comprehensive suite of forage taxa indicators whose abundance and distributions can be monitored as a proxy for ecosystem health. It is our goal that this database be harnessed as a tool to enable conservation practitioners to prioritize indicator taxa for monitoring purposes, contributing towards conservation plans that best address the health of the ecosystem at large.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2014

Brood surveys and hunter observations used to predict gobbling activity wild turkeys in Mississippi

The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks utilize data from turkey hunter observations and brood surveys from across the state to manage wild turkey Meleagris gallopavo populations. Since 1995, hunters have collected gobbling and jake observation data, while the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks' personnel and cooperating wildlife managers of several natural resource agencies throughout the state have collected brood survey data. Both sources of data serve to forecast poult recruitment and gobbling activity. The objective of this study was to evaluate if these data can serve as a viable predictor of gobbling activity. We used three mixed models to investigate the relationship between the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior and the total number of poults per hens 2 y prior (model 1), number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior (model 2), the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting and the total number poults per total hens observed 2 y prior (model 3) using data from 1995 to 2008 among five wild turkey management regions encompassing the state. We incorporated region as a random effect to account for spatial variation. We found the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior correlated with the total number of poults per total hens observed 2 y prior. We also found the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting correlated with the number of jakes observed per hour of hunting 1 y prior. Additionally, we found that the total poults per total hens observed 2 y prior was correlated to the number of gobblers heard per hour of hunting. Our results show promise for using indices of gobbling activity, jake observations, and brood surveys to estimate gobbling activity.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Accounting for surveyor effort in large-scale monitoring programs

Accounting for errors in wildlife surveys is necessary for reliable status assessments and quantification of uncertainty in estimates of population size. We apply a hierarchical log-linear Poisson regression model that accounts for multiple sources of variability in count data collected for the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program during 2010–2014. In some large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., Christmas Bird Count) there are diminishing returns in numbers counted as survey effort increases; therefore, we also explore the need to account for variable survey duration as a proxy for effort. In general, we found a high degree of concordance between counts and effort-adjusted estimates of relative abundance from the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program ( x̄ difference = 0.02%; 0.25% SD). We suggest that the model-based adjustments were small because there is only a weak asymptotic relationship with effort and count. Whereas effort adjustments are reasonable and effective when applied to count data from plots of standardized area, such adjustments may not be necessary when the area of sample units is not standardized and surveyor effort increases with number of birds present. That is, large units require more effort only when there are many birds present. The general framework we implemented to evaluate effects of varying survey effort applies to a wide variety of wildlife monitoring efforts.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Quantile equivalence to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives

Equivalence estimated with linear quantile regression was used to evaluate compliance with habitat management objectives at Arapaho National Wildlife Refuge based on monitoring data collected in upland (5,781 ha; n = 511 transects) and riparian and meadow (2,856 ha, n = 389 transects) habitats from 2005 to 2008. Quantiles were used because the management objectives specified proportions of the habitat area that needed to comply with vegetation criteria. The linear model was used to obtain estimates that were averaged across 4 y. The equivalence testing framework allowed us to interpret confidence intervals for estimated proportions with respect to intervals of vegetative criteria (equivalence regions) in either a liberal, benefit-of-doubt or conservative, fail-safe approach associated with minimizing alternative risks. Simple Boolean conditional arguments were used to combine the quantile equivalence results for individual vegetation components into a joint statement for the multivariable management objectives. For example, management objective 2A required at least 809 ha of upland habitat with a shrub composition ≥0.70 sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), 20–30% canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height, ≥20% canopy cover of grasses, and ≥10% canopy cover of forbs on average over 4 y. Shrub composition and canopy cover of grass each were readily met on >3,000 ha under either conservative or liberal interpretations of sampling variability. However, there were only 809–1,214 ha (conservative to liberal) with ≥10% forb canopy cover and 405–1,098 ha with 20–30% canopy cover of sagebrush ≥25 cm in height. Only 91–180 ha of uplands simultaneously met criteria for all four components, primarily because canopy cover of sagebrush and forbs was inversely related when considered at the spatial scale (30 m) of a sample transect. We demonstrate how the quantile equivalence analyses also can help refine the numerical specification of habitat objectives and explore specification of spatial scales for objectives with respect to sampling scales used to evaluate those objectives.

Colorado↗