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USGS1999

New reporting procedures based on long-term method detection levels and some considerations for interpretations of water-quality data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory

This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory's approach for determining long-term method detection levels and establishing reporting levels, details relevant new reporting conventions, and provides preliminary guidance on interpreting data reported with the new conventions. At the long-term method detection level concentration, the risk of a false positive detection (analyte reported present at the long-term method detection level when not in sample) is no more than 1 percent. However, at the long-term method detection level, the risk of a false negative occurrence (analyte reported not present when present at the long-term method detection level concentration) is up to 50 percent. Because this false negative rate is too high for use as a default 'less than' reporting level, a more reliable laboratory reporting level is set at twice the determined long-term method detection level. For all methods, concentrations measured between the laboratory reporting level and the long-term method detection level will be reported as estimated concentrations. Non-detections will be censored to the laboratory reporting level. Adoption of the new reporting conventions requires a full understanding of how low-concentration data can be used and interpreted and places responsibility for using and presenting final data with the user rather than with the laboratory. Users must consider that (1) new laboratory reporting levels may differ from previously established minimum reporting levels, (2) long-term method detection levels and laboratory reporting levels may change over time, and (3) estimated concentrations are less certain than concentrations reported above the laboratory reporting level. The availability of uncensored but qualified low-concentration data for interpretation and statistical analysis is a substantial benefit to the user. A decision to censor data after they are reported from the laboratory may still be made by the user, if merited, on the basis of the intended use of the data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2009

Geophysical Interpretations of the Southern Espanola Basin, New Mexico, That Contribute to Understanding Its Hydrogeologic Framework

The southern Espanola basin consists of a westward- and northward-thickening wedge of rift fill, composed primarily of Santa Fe Group sediments, that serves as an important aquifer for the city of Santa Fe and surrounding areas. Detailed aeromagnetic surveys were flown to better understand ground-water resources in this aquifer. This report presents a synthesis of these data with gravity data and other constraints. The interpretations were accomplished using qualitative interpretation, state-of-art data analysis techniques, and two- and three-dimensional modeling. The results depict the presence of and depth to many geologic features that have hydrogeologic significance, including shallow faults, different types of igneous units, and basement rocks. The results are presented as map interpretations, geophysical profile models, and a digital surface that represents the base and thickness of Santa Fe Group sediments, as well as vector files of some volcanic features and faults.

Professional Paper↗

USGS1975

Paleotectonic investigations of the Pennsylvanian system in the United States, Part II: Interpretive summary and special features of the Pennsylvanian system

Interpretation of the paleotectonic history of the Pennsylvanian System is represented on two sets of maps, one referred to as interpretive isopach maps and the other as interpretive paleotectonic maps (pi. 15A-C). Each set includes five maps, one for each interval of the Pennsylvanian. All maps of both sets were prepared at the same scale (1:5,000,000) and are published at a scale of 1:10,000,000. Therefore direct comparisons can readily be made.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

TracerLPM (Version 1): An Excel® workbook for interpreting groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data

TracerLPM is an interactive Excel® (2007 or later) workbook program for evaluating groundwater age distributions from environmental tracer data by using lumped parameter models (LPMs). Lumped parameter models are mathematical models of transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configurations that account for effects of hydrodynamic dispersion or mixing within the aquifer, well bore, or discharge area. Five primary LPMs are included in the workbook: piston-flow model (PFM), exponential mixing model (EMM), exponential piston-flow model (EPM), partial exponential model (PEM), and dispersion model (DM). Binary mixing models (BMM) can be created by combining primary LPMs in various combinations. Travel time through the unsaturated zone can be included as an additional parameter. TracerLPM also allows users to enter age distributions determined from other methods, such as particle tracking results from numerical groundwater-flow models or from other LPMs not included in this program. Tracers of both young groundwater (anthropogenic atmospheric gases and isotopic substances indicating post-1940s recharge) and much older groundwater (carbon-14 and helium-4) can be interpreted simultaneously so that estimates of the groundwater age distribution for samples with a wide range of ages can be constrained. TracerLPM is organized to permit a comprehensive interpretive approach consisting of hydrogeologic conceptualization, visual examination of data and models, and best-fit parameter estimation. Groundwater age distributions can be evaluated by comparing measured and modeled tracer concentrations in two ways: (1) multiple tracers analyzed simultaneously can be evaluated against each other for concordance with modeled concentrations (tracer-tracer application) or (2) tracer time-series data can be evaluated for concordance with modeled trends (tracer-time application). Groundwater-age estimates can also be obtained for samples with a single tracer measurement at one point in time; however, prior knowledge of an appropriate LPM is required because the mean age is often non-unique. LPM output concentrations depend on model parameters and sample date. All of the LPMs have a parameter for mean age. The EPM, PEM, and DM have an additional parameter that characterizes the degree of age mixing in the sample. BMMs have a parameter for the fraction of the first component in the mixture. An LPM, together with its parameter values, provides a description of the age distribution or the fractional contribution of water for every age of recharge contained within a sample. For the PFM, the age distribution is a unit pulse at one distinct age. For the other LPMs, the age distribution can be much broader and span decades, centuries, millennia, or more. For a sample with a mixture of groundwater ages, the reported interpretation of tracer data includes the LPM name, the mean age, and the values of any other independent model parameters. TracerLPM also can be used for simulating the responses of wells, springs, streams, or other groundwater discharge receptors to nonpoint-source contaminants that are introduced in recharge, such as nitrate. This is done by combining an LPM or user-defined age distribution with information on contaminant loading at the water table. Information on historic contaminant loading can be used to help evaluate a model's ability to match real world conditions and understand observed contaminant trends, while information on future contaminant loading scenarios can be used to forecast potential contaminant trends.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2024

Visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery: A tool for land managers

Remotely sensed imagery from various collection platforms (e.g., satellites, crewed and uncrewed aircraft) are used by biologists and other conservation personnel to support management activities ranging from monitoring invasive species to assessing land cover and vegetation characteristics. Although remote sensing–based vegetation indices and models have been developed and used for some management applications, straightforward visual interpretation of imagery by on-the-ground personnel may be a pragmatic approach for obtaining time-sensitive and spatially relevant information to support and guide local management activities. Our primary objective was to qualitatively assess our ability to identify patches of target invasive plant species based on simple visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery. We also sought to compare the high-resolution imagery to widely available imagery (e.g., National Agriculture Imagery Program) to determine the efficacy of each for assessing vegetation communities and land-cover features in support of management activities. To accomplish these objectives, we obtained high-resolution imagery and visually scanned and assessed the imagery by using standard geographic information system software. We were able to differentiate patches of crownvetch Securigera varia (L.) Lassen and wild parsnip Pastinaca sativa L., but not spotted knapweed Centaurea stoebe L. or leafy spurge Euphorbia esula L. The relative success in identifying these species had a relationship to plant characteristics (e.g., flower color and morphology, height), time of year (phenology), patch size and density, and potentially site characteristics such density of the underlying vegetation (e.g., grasses), substrate color characteristics (i.e., color contrast with flowers), and physical disturbance. Our straightforward, qualitative assessment suggests that visual interpretation of high-resolution imagery, but not some lower-resolution imagery, may be an efficient and effective tool for supporting local invasive species management through activities such as monitoring known patches, identifying undetected infestations, assessing management actions, guiding field work, or prioritizing on-the-ground monitoring activities.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS1983

An interpretation of gravity and aeromagnetic surveys of the Greater Jiddah area, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

A gravity survey of the Jiddah area between lat 21°23' and 21°48' N., long 39°03' and 39°20' E., carried out in early 1977, covers an area of 744 km 2 and includes 215 stations, at an average spacing of 1.9 km. The resulting simple Bouguer gravity anomaly map shows a series of four large (7-15 mgal) gravity anomaly highs along a north-trending gravity gradient located immediately west of outcrops of Precambrian rocks. The regional Bouguer gravity anomaly field of the map area decreases eastward at an approximately constant rate of about 1.1 mgal-km-1. Several anomalies suggest northeast-trending, right-lateral strike-slip faulting throughout the area. Interpretation of the Bouguer gravity anomaly map, combined with geologic, aeromagnetic, and paleomagnetic data, leads to an interpretive model in which the gravity gradient marks the boundary zone between Precambrian continental crust to the east and oceanic sea-floor crust overlain by marine sedimentary rocks to the west. The strike-slip faults in the area are probably the landward extension of offshore Red Sea transform faults, and, because they penetrate and offset continental crust, their study may yield useful information about the mechanism of transform faulting. The gravity anomaly highs are interpreted to result from shallow intrusive bodies, probably gabbroic in composition, that are buried a few hundred meters below the surface and that are approximately 2 km thick.

Report↗

USGS2004

Interpretation of the Miyakejima 2000 eruption and dike emplacement using time animations of earthquakes

The seismic sequence of over 12,000 earthquakes accompanying the 2000 eruption of Miyakejima volcano has been studied by viewing time animations of the earthquakes beneath transparent topography. Seismic activity began on the evening of June 26 extending southwest from Miyakejima’s summit. A few hours later the seismicity abruptly shifted to the WNW and a submarine eruption occurred off the West Coast of Miyakejima on the morning of June 27. Phreatic eruptions at Miyakejima’s summit in July were accompanied by the formation of a new caldera. Following caldera formation explosive eruptions occurred in August. The eruption ended with minor explosions in September. The seismic activity that began with a low-magnitude swarm beneath Miyakejima grew to a major swarm with hundreds of events of M＞4 extending more than 40km WNW from Miyakejima. Lesser numbers of earthquakes occurred on two N-S trending lines extending south and north of the main seismic trend. The seismicity has been interpreted as evidence for emplacement of a massive dike on the main trend that triggered additional earthquakes on the two cross trends. Our interpretation involves more restricted dike emplacement west of Miyakejima, including the possibility of additional submarine eruption, following cracking of the Philippine Sea plate. The seismic activity associated with explosive eruptions in August helps to define Miyakejima’s magma plumbing. A shallow reservoir beneath the southwest slope is defined by concentrations of earthquakes at 4-6km depth, and a deeper source is suggested by a smaller number of earthquakes extending to 10km vertically beneath the shallow source. Seismic activity preceding and accompanying eruptions at Miyakejima’s summit are defined by seismic swarms extending from 4km depth to the surface along a path connecting the summit with the shallow reservoir. Away from Miyakejima shallow (＜1 km) earthquake swarms at minimum rates of 1 event per hour extending over several hours occur within restricted areas of diameter less than 3km and define possible additional sites of undersea eruption or intrusion. Beneath sites west of Miyakejima the seismicity at depths of less than 4km occurs earlier and toward Miyakejima, consistent with magma transport from Miyakejima’s shallow reservoir. Shallow swarms extending 15km to the WNW strongly suggest that additional intrusion and possibly eruption may have occurred on June 27-28. Between June 27 and July 12 along the main seismic trend, and beneath the shallow sites, progressively deeper earthquake swarms occur at progressively later times, a pattern inconsistent with magma transport and interpreted here as the Philippine Sea plate cracking downward. The initial shallow cracking guided magma to the June 27 undersea eruption site. Subsequent cracking to the west allowed very rapid lateral withdrawal of magma from the Miyakejima reservoir allowing a new caldera to form. The deep cracking of the plate may have triggered additional magma sources, including a deep source suggested by the modeling of regional ground deformation data.

Miyakejima↗

USGS1985

On the interpretation of satellite-derived gravity and magnetic data for studies of crustal geology and metallogenesis

Satellite-derived global gravity and magnetic maps have been shown to be useful in large-scale studies of the Earth's crust, despite the relative infancy of such studies. Numerous authors have made spatial associations of gravity or magnetic anomalies with geological provinces. Gravimetric interpretations are often made in terms of isostasy, regional variations of density, or of geodesy in general. Interpretations of satellite magnetic anomalies often base assumptions of overall crustal magnetism on concepts of the vertical and horizontal distribution of magnetic susceptibility, then make models of these assumed distributions. The opportunity of improving our satellite gravity and magnetic data through the proposed Geopotential Research Mission should considerably improve the scientific community's ability to analyze and interpret global magnetic and gravity data. As data processing techniques improve, we may expect to see even more useful results of the data.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Vegetation as a tool in the interpretation of fluvial geomorphic processes and landforms

This chapter exemplifies that vegetation can be used as a tool for geomorphic interpretation in several major ways. It presents a general overview: through dendrogeomorphic analysis (tree rings) to estimate the timing of important geomorphic events including floods and mass wasting and to estimate rates of erosion and sedimentation; through the documentation and interpretation of species distributional patterns that are established in response to prevailing hydrogeomorphic conditions; and through the role that it plays, depending on size, shape and growth form, in flow rates and subsequent erosion and deposition processes. Floods, from prolonged inundation characteristic of relatively large, low-gradient basins to high-gradient and short-period destructive events, are the most important extrinsic factor in bottomland systems. Vegetation organization, composition and plant community dynamics on river floodplains are controlled by disturbance type and scale, and biological characteristics of plants linked to resistance to disturbance, resilience and competitive ability.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Crustal structure interpreted from magnetic anomalies

In this review, we discuss publications during the last quadrennium (1987–1990) that used aeromagnetic data, marine magnetic data, satellite magnetic data, and rock magnetic and petrologic data to provide information on the sources of magnetic anomalies. Abstracts and papers by non‐U.S. authors are not described. The publications reviewed reflect increased integration of rock magnetic property and petrologic studies with magnetic anomaly interpretation studies, particularly in deep crustal magnetization, exploration for hydrocarbons, and inversion of marine magnetic anomalies. Interpretations of aeromagnetic data featuring image display techniques and using the horizontal gradient method for locating magnetization boundaries became standard. The magnetic anomaly map of North America appeared, the first such map of an entire continent. MAGSAT data contributed to the development of a new model for the magnetization of the oceanic crust. Forward modeling of sources of magnetic anomalies contributed to a wide range of geologic investigations on land, and inverse magnetic modeling techniques became popular for marine geologic investigations.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2001

Difficulties with estimating and interpreting species pools and the implications for understanding patterns of diversity

Evidence has been accumulating that species pools play a major role in regulating variations in small-scale diversity. However, our ability to unambiguously estimate and interpret species pools remains a major impediment to understanding the processes that control patterns of diversity. Two main approaches have been employed to evaluate the relationships between species pools and species diversity. The direct approach has been to estimate the actual sizes of species pools by sampling discrete areas at larger spatial scales and then relating these estimates to samples taken at smaller scales. The indirect approach has been to search for correlations between abiotic environmental factors and patterns of diversity that are indicative of gradients in species pools. Both of these approaches have substantial predictive capability but also have limitations that impair our ability to draw unambiguous interpretations about causal factors. A primary difficulty for the direct approach is in deciding which species in the larger pool of potential species are actually capable of living in a sample. In this regard, the indirect approach requires fewer assumptions and has the ability to detect previously unsuspected gradients in species pools. As with the direct approach, assessing the causes for observed gradients in species pools remains a limitation for the indirect approach. Consideration of experimental studies of potential niches suggests that it may be valuable to distinguish between potential and observed species pools if the role of competitive exclusion is to be fully assessed. This paper concludes by arguing for (1) an increased use of multivariate studies that examine the effects of species pools indirectly and (2) further experimental studies designed to determine potential species pools.

Folia Geobotanica↗

USGS2010

The role of sample preparation in interpretation of trace element concentration variability in moss bioindication studies

Trace element concentrations in plant bioindicators are often determined to assess the quality of the environment. Instrumental methods used for trace element determination require digestion of samples. There are different methods of sample preparation for trace element analysis, and the selection of the best method should be fitted for the purpose of a study. Our hypothesis is that the method of sample preparation is important for interpretation of the results. Here we compare the results of 36 element determinations performed by ICP-MS on ashed and on acid-digested (HNO 3 , H 2 O 2 ) samples of two moss species ( Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi ) collected in Alaska and in south-central Poland. We found that dry ashing of the moss samples prior to analysis resulted in considerably lower detection limits of all the elements examined. We also show that this sample preparation technique facilitated the determination of interregional and interspecies differences in the chemistry of trace elements. Compared to the Polish mosses, the Alaskan mosses displayed more positive correlations of the major rock-forming elements with ash content, reflecting those elements’ geogenic origin. Of the two moss species, P. schreberi from both Alaska and Poland was also highlighted by a larger number of positive element pair correlations. The cluster analysis suggests that the more uniform element distribution pattern of the Polish mosses primarily reflects regional air pollution sources. Our study has shown that the method of sample preparation is an important factor in statistical interpretation of the results of trace element determinations.

Environmental Chemistry Letters↗

USGS2019

Conducting and interpreting fish telemetry studies: Considerations for researchers and resource managers

Telemetry is an increasingly common tool for studying the ecology of wild fish, with great potential to provide valuable information for management and conservation. For researchers to conduct a robust telemetry study, many essential considerations exist related to selecting the appropriate tag type, fish capture and tagging methods, tracking protocol, data processing and analyses, and interpretation of findings. For telemetry-derived knowledge to be relevant to managers and policy makers, the research approach must consider management information needs for decision-making, while end users require an understanding of telemetry technology (capabilities and limitations), its application to fisheries research and monitoring (study design), and proper interpretation of results and conclusions (considering the potential for biases and proper recognition of associated uncertainties). To help bridge this gap, we provide a set of considerations and a checklist for researchers to guide them in conducting reliable and management-relevant telemetry studies, and for managers to evaluate the reliability and relevance of telemetry studies so as to better integrate findings into management plans. These considerations include implicit assumptions, technical limitations, ethical and biological realities, analytical merits, and the relevance of study findings to decision-making processes.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS1989

The potential of paleozoic nonmarine trace fossils for paleoecological interpretations

Many Late Paleozoic environments have been interpreted as marine because of the co-occurrence of supposedly exclusively marine trace fossils. Beginning in the Late Ordovician, however, nonmarine trace-fossil diversity increased throughout the Paleozoic. This diversification of nonmarine organisms and nonmarine trace fossils was especially prevalent in Devonian and later times. Diversification of freshwater organisms is indicated by the large number of freshwater fish, arthropods, annelids and molluscs that had developed by the Carboniferous. In addition to diverse freshwater assemblages, entirely terrestrial vertebrate and invertebrate ecosystems had developed by the Devonian. This rapid diversification of freshwater and terrestrial organisms is inherently linked to development and diversification of land plants and subsequent shedding of large quantities of organic detritus in nonmarine and marginal-marine areas. Nearshore marine organisms and their larvae that are able to tolerate relatively short periods of lowered salinities will follow salt-water wedges inland during times of reduced freshwater discharge. Similarly, amphidromous marine organisms will migrate periodically inland into nonmarine environments. Undoubtedly, both of these processes were active in the Paleozoic. However, both processes are restricted to stream/distributary channels, interdistributary bays, or estuaries. Therefore, the presence of diverse trace-fossil assemblages in association with floodplain deposits is interpreted to reflect true nonmarine adaptation and diversity. Conversely, diverse trace-fossil assemblages in association with stream/distributary channel deposits, interdistributary-bay deposits, or estuarine deposits may reflect migration of salt-water wedges inland, or migration of marine organisms into freshwater environments (amphidromy), or both.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS1985

Saudi Arabian seismic-refraction profile: A traveltime interpretation of crustal and upper mantle structure

The crustal and upper mantle compressional-wave velocity structure across the southwestern Arabian Shield has been investigated by a 1000-km-long seismic refraction profile. The profile begins in Mesozoic cover rocks near Riyadh on the Arabian Platform, trends southwesterly across three major Precambrian tectonic provinces, traverses Cenozoic rocks of the coastal plain near Jizan, and terminates at the outer edge of the Farasan Bank in the southern Red Sea. More than 500 surveyed recording sites were occupied, and six shot points were used, including one in the Red Sea. Two-dimensional ray-tracing techniques, used to analyze amplitude-normalized record sections indicate that the Arabian Shield is composed, to first order, of two layers, each about 20 km thick, with average velocities of about 6.3 km/s and 7.0 km/s, respectively. West of the Shield-Red Sea margin, the crust thins to a total thickness of less than 20 km, beyond which the Red Sea shelf and coastal plain are interpreted to be underlain by oceanic crust. A major crustal inhomogeneity at the northeast end of the profile probably represents the suture zone between two crustal blocks of different composition. Elsewhere along the profile, several high-velocity anomalies in the upper crust correlate with mapped gneiss domes, the most prominent of which is the Khamis Mushayt gneiss. Based on their velocities, these domes may constitute areas where lower crustal rocks have been raised some 20 km. Two intracrustal reflectors in the center of the Shield at 13 km depth probably represent the tops of mafic intrusives. The Mohorovičić discontinuity beneath the Shield varies from a depth of 43 km and mantle velocity of 8.2 km/s in the northeast to a depth of 38 km and mantle velocity of 8.0 km/s depth in the southwest near the Shield-Red Sea transition. Two velocity discontinuities occur in the upper mantle, at 59 and 70 km depth. The crustal and upper mantle velocity structure of the Arabian Shield is interpreted as revealing a complex crust derived from the suturing of island arcs in the Precarnbrian. The Shield is currently flanked by the active spreading boundary in the Red Sea.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS1993

Comparison of the petrography, palynology and paleobotany of the Stockton coal bed, West Virginia and implications for paleoenvironmental interpretations

The Stockton coal bed (Middle Pennsylvanian) is a relatively high ash coal composed primarily of moderately thin banded, sparsely thin banded, and nonbanded coal (splint and cannel coal). Comparisons of petrographic, palynologic, and paleobotanic data gathered from the same sample sets from a single column of the Stockton coal bed indicate that compositional correspondences among the sets exist regardless of coal type. Some correspondences are believed to exist because of original plant constituents and others because of the paleoenvironment of peat formation. Using some combination of these data is critical when interpreting paleoenvironmental conditions because (1) a direct correspondence is lacking between many of the data and (2) each of the three data sets provides a unique and important perspective on the paleomire. The Stockton paleomire in the area of this study supported a diverse flora that consisted of both small and arboreous lycopsids, small ferns and tree ferns, calamites, cordaites, and pteridosperms. There appear to have been two successions of Lycospora spore-dominated, vitrinite-rich, liptinite-poor peat formation, which were followed by inertinite-rich peat formation marked by a tree fern-dominant spore assemblage and abundant unidentifiable plant tissues. These are interpreted to be two water-laden or topogenous peat formational stages followed by slightly domed, better drained peat formation.

West Virginia↗

USGS2019

When the earth doesn’t stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges. We conducted research to better understand aftershock information needs for agencies and the public, and how people interpreted and responded to such information. We found that a wide range of information was needed from basic facts about aftershocks through to more technical information, and in different formats (e.g. maps, tables, graphs, text, analogies). Information needs also evolved throughout the sequence, and differed depending on people’s roles and experiences, and the phase of impact, response and recovery communities were in. Interpretation of aftershock information was influenced by a variety of factors including how understandable and relevant the information was, whether people had prior knowledge or experience of aftershocks, whether the information was personalised or contextualised, emotions and feelings, credibility and trust, and external influences. Given that such a diversity of evolving information is required, it is imperative that geoscientists strategize how to provide such information before a significant earthquake occurs.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2022

Explainable machine learning improves interpretability in the predictive modeling of biological stream conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Anthropogenic alterations have resulted in widespread degradation of stream conditions. To aid in stream restoration and management, baseline estimates of conditions and improved explanation of factors driving their degradation are needed. We used random forests to model biological conditions using a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity for small, non-tidal streams (upstream area ≤200 km 2 ) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) of the mid-Atlantic coast of North America. We utilized several global and local model interpretation tools to improve average and site-specific model inferences, respectively. The model was used to predict condition for 95,867 individual catchments for eight periods (2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2019). Predicted conditions were classified as Poor, FairGood, or Uncertain to align with management needs and individual reach lengths and catchment areas were summed by condition class for the CBW for each period. Global permutation and local Shapley importance values indicated percent of forest, development, and agriculture in upstream catchments had strong impacts on predictions. Development and agriculture negatively influenced stream condition for model average (partial dependence [PD] and accumulated local effect [ALE] plots) and local (individual condition expectation and Shapley value plots) levels. Friedman's H-statistic indicated large overall interactions for these three land covers, and bivariate global plots (PD and ALE) supported interactions among agriculture and development. Total stream length and catchment area predicted in FairGood conditions decreased then increased over the 19-years (length/area: 66.6/65.4% in 2001, 66.3/65.2% in 2011, and 66.6/65.4% in 2019). Examination of individual catchment predictions between 2001 and 2019 showed those predicted to have the largest decreases in condition had large increases in development; whereas catchments predicted to exhibit the largest increases in condition showed moderate increases in forest cover. Use of global and local interpretative methods together with watershed-wide and individual catchment predictions support conservation practitioners that need to identify widespread and localized patterns, especially acknowledging that management actions typically take place at individual-reach scales.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗