SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Geophysical Research Letters”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress‐based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

California↗

USGS2015

Earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanisms in central Oklahoma reveal a complex system of reactivated subsurface strike-slip faulting

The sharp increase in seismicity over a broad region of central Oklahoma has raised concern regarding the source of the activity and its potential hazard to local communities and energy industry infrastructure. Since early 2010, numerous organizations have deployed temporary portable seismic stations in central Oklahoma in order to record the evolving seismicity. In this study, we apply a multiple-event relocation method to produce a catalog of 3,639 central Oklahoma earthquakes from late 2009 through 2014. RMT source parameters were determined for 195 of the largest and best-recorded earthquakes. Combining RMT results with relocated seismicity enabled us to determine the length, depth and style-of-faulting occurring on reactivated subsurface fault systems. Results show that the majority of earthquakes occur on near vertical, optimally oriented (NE-SW and NW-SE), strike-slip faults in the shallow crystalline basement. These are necessary first order observations required to assess the potential hazards of individual faults in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Unusually loud ambient noise in tidewater glacier fjords: a signal of ice melt

In glacierized fjords, the ice-ocean boundary is a physically and biologically dynamic environment that is sensitive to both glacier flow and ocean circulation. Ocean ambient noise offers insight into processes and change at the ice-ocean boundary. Here we characterize fjord ambient noise and show that the average noise levels are louder than nearly all measured natural oceanic environments (significantly louder than sea ice and non-glacierized fjords). Icy Bay, Alaska has an annual average sound pressure level of 120 dB (re 1 μPa) with a broad peak between 1000 and 3000 Hz. Bubble formation in the water column as glacier ice melts is the noise source, with variability driven by fjord circulation patterns. Measurements from two additional fjords, in Alaska and Antarctica, support that this unusually loud ambient noise in Icy Bay is representative of glacierized fjords. These high noise levels likely alter the behavior of marine mammals.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Ceres: predictions for near-surface water ice stability and implications for plume generating processes

This paper will constrain the possible sources and processes for the formation of recently observed H2O vapor plumes above the surface of the dwarf planet Ceres. Two hypotheses have been proposed: (1) cryovolcanism where the water source is the mantle and the heating source is still unknown or (2) comet-like sublimation where near-surface water ice is vaporized by seasonally increasing solar insolation. We test hypothesis #2, comet-like near-surface sublimation, by using a thermal model to examine the stability of water-ice in the near surface. For a reasonable range of physical parameters (thermal inertia, surface roughness, slopes), we find that water ice is only stable at latitudes higher than ~40-60 degrees. These results indicate that either (a) the physical properties of Ceres are unlike our expectations or (b) an alternative to comet-like sublimation, such as the cryovolcanism hypothesis, must be invoked.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. Here we use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916–2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead-time of one month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

California↗

USGS2015

Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

California↗

USGS2015

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 1980s. Changes in the wave climate—which have often been ignored in earlier assessments—were at least as important as sea level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter relative to long-term trends.

Alabama↗

USGS2015

Interpreting fluid pressure anomalies in shallow intraplate argillaceous formations

Investigations have revealed several instances of apparently isolated highs or lows in pore fluid potential in shallow (< ~ 1 km depth) argillaceous formations in intraplate settings. Formations with the pressure anomalies are distinguished by (1) smaller ratios of hydraulic conductivity to formation thickness and (2) smaller hydraulic (or pressure) diffusivities than those without anomalies. This is consistent with transient Darcian flow caused by strain at rates of ~ 10 −17 to 10 -16  s -1 , by significant perturbing events in the past 10 4 to 10 6  annum or by some combination of the two. Plausible causes include erosional downwasting, tectonic strain, and glaciation. In this conceptualization the anomalies provide constraints on formation-scale flow properties, flow history, and local geological forcing in the last 10 6  annum and in particular indicate zones of low permeability (10 −19 –10 −22  m 2 ) that could be useful for isolation of nuclear waste.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1–2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

California↗

USGS2015

Renewed inflation of Long Valley Caldera, California (2011 to 2014)

Slow inflation began at Long Valley Caldera in late 2011, coinciding with renewed swarm seismicity. Ongoing deformation is concentrated within the caldera. We analyze this deformation using a combination of GPS and InSAR (TerraSAR-X) data processed with a persistent scatterer technique. The extension rate of the dome-crossing baseline during this episode (CA99 to KRAC) is 1 cm/yr, similar to past inflation episodes (1990–1995 and 2002–2003), and about a tenth of the peak rate observed during the 1997 unrest. The current deformation is well modeled by the inflation of a prolate spheroidal magma reservoir &sim;7 km beneath the resurgent dome, with a volume change of &sim;6 × 10 6  m 3 /yr from 2011.7 through the end of 2014. The current data cannot resolve a second source, which was required to model the 1997 episode. This source appears to be in the same region as previous inflation episodes, suggesting a persistent reservoir.

California↗

USGS2015

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Mountain glaciers comprise a small and widely distributed fraction of the world's terrestrial ice, yet their rapid losses presently drive a large percentage of the cryosphere's contribution to sea level rise. Regional mass balance assessments are challenging over large glacier populations due to remote and rugged geography, variable response of individual glaciers to climate change, and episodic calving losses from tidewater glaciers. In Alaska, we use airborne altimetry from 116 glaciers to estimate a regional mass balance of −75 ± 11 Gt yr −1 (1994–2013). Our glacier sample is spatially well distributed, yet pervasive variability in mass balances obscures geospatial and climatic relationships. However, for the first time, these data allow the partitioning of regional mass balance by glacier type. We find that tidewater glaciers are losing mass at substantially slower rates than other glaciers in Alaska and collectively contribute to only 6% of the regional mass loss.

Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon Territory↗

USGS2015

Isolated cases of remote dynamic triggering in Canada detected using cataloged earthquakes combined with a matched-filter approach

Here we search for dynamically triggered earthquakes in Canada following global main shocks between 2004 and 2014 with M S  > 6, depth < 100 km, and estimated peak ground velocity > 0.2 cm/s. We use the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) earthquake catalog to calculate β statistical values in 1° × 1° bins in 10 day windows before and after the main shocks. The statistical analysis suggests that triggering may occur near Vancouver Island, along the border of the Yukon and Northwest Territories, in western Alberta, western Ontario, and the Charlevoix seismic zone. We also search for triggering in Alberta where denser seismic station coverage renders regional earthquake catalogs with lower completeness thresholds. We find remote triggering in Alberta associated with three main shocks using a matched-filter approach on continuous waveform data. The increased number of local earthquakes following the passage of main shock surface waves suggests local faults may be in a critically stressed state.

Alberta↗

USGS2015

Ocean circulation and biogeochemistry moderate interannual and decadal surface water pH changes in the Sargasso Sea

The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis . Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO 2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO 2 alone.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

California↗

USGS2015

Subglacial discharge at tidewater glaciers revealed by seismic tremor

Subglacial discharge influences glacier basal motion and erodes and redeposits sediment. At tidewater glacier termini, discharge drives submarine terminus melting, affects fjord circulation, and is a central component of proglacial marine ecosystems. However, our present inability to track subglacial discharge and its variability significantly hinders our understanding of these processes. Here we report observations of hourly to seasonal variations in 1.5–10 Hz seismic tremor that strongly correlate with subglacial discharge but not with basal motion, weather, or discrete icequakes. Our data demonstrate that vigorous discharge occurs from tidewater glaciers during summer, in spite of fast basal motion that could limit the formation of subglacial conduits, and then abates during winter. Furthermore, tremor observations and a melt model demonstrate that drainage efficiency of tidewater glaciers evolves seasonally. Glaciohydraulic tremor provides a means by which to quantify subglacial discharge variations and offers a promising window into otherwise obscured glacierized environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Removal of terrestrial DOC in aquatic ecosystems of a temperate river network

Surface waters play a potentially important role in the global carbon balance. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes are a major transfer of terrestrial carbon to river systems, and the fate of DOC in aquatic systems is poorly constrained. We used a unique combination of spatially distributed sampling of three DOC fractions throughout a river network and modeling to quantify the net removal of terrestrial DOC during a summer base flow period. We found that aquatic reactivity of terrestrial DOC leading to net loss is low, closer to conservative chloride than to reactive nitrogen. Net removal occurred mainly from the hydrophobic organic acid fraction, while hydrophilic and transphilic acids showed no net change, indicating that partitioning of bulk DOC into different fractions is critical for understanding terrestrial DOC removal. These findings suggest that river systems may have only a modest ability to alter the amounts of terrestrial DOC delivered to coastal zones.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2015

Reactivated faulting near Cushing, Oklahoma: Increased potential for a triggered earthquake in an area of United States strategic infrastructure

In October 2014 two moderate-sized earthquakes ( Mw 4.0 and 4.3) struck south of Cushing, Oklahoma, below the largest crude oil storage facility in the world. Combined analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes and regional moment tensor focal mechanisms indicate reactivation of a subsurface unnamed and unmapped left-lateral strike-slip fault. Coulomb failure stress change calculations using the relocated seismicity and slip distribution determined from regional moment tensors, allow for the possibility that the Wilzetta-Whitetail fault zone south of Cushing, Oklahoma, could produce a large, damaging earthquake comparable to the 2011 Prague event. Resultant very strong shaking levels (MMI VII) in the epicentral region present the possibility of this potential earthquake causing moderate to heavy damage to national strategic infrastructure and local communities.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

Larger aftershocks happen farther away: nonseparability of magnitude and spatial distributions of aftershocks

Aftershocks may be driven by stress concentrations left by the main shock rupture or by elastic stress transfer to adjacent fault sections or strands. Aftershocks that occur within the initial rupture may be limited in size, because the scale of the stress concentrations should be smaller than the primary rupture itself. On the other hand, aftershocks that occur on adjacent fault segments outside the primary rupture may have no such size limitation. Here we use high-precision double-difference relocated earthquake catalogs to demonstrate that larger aftershocks occur farther away than smaller aftershocks, when measured from the centroid of early aftershock activity—a proxy for the initial rupture. Aftershocks as large as or larger than the initiating event nucleate almost exclusively in the outer regions of the aftershock zone. This observation is interpreted as a signature of elastic rebound in the earthquake catalog and can be used to improve forecasting of large aftershocks.

Geophysical Research Letters↗