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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Missouri River

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Missouri River basin

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

Operational thermal remote sensing and lava flow monitoring at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Hawaiian volcanoes are highly accessible and well monitored by ground instruments. Nevertheless, observational gaps remain and thermal satellite imagery has proven useful in Hawai‘i for providing synoptic views of activity during intervals between field visits. Here we describe the beginning of a thermal remote sensing programme at the US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Whereas expensive receiving stations have been traditionally required to achieve rapid downloading of satellite data, we exploit free, low-latency data sources on the internet for timely access to GOES, MODIS, ASTER and EO-1 ALI imagery. Automated scripts at the observatory download these data and provide a basic display of the images. Satellite data have been extremely useful for monitoring the ongoing lava flow activity on Kīlauea's East Rift Zone at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō over the past few years. A recent lava flow, named Kahauale‘a 2, was upslope from residential subdivisions for over a year. Satellite data helped track the slow advance of the flow and contributed to hazard assessments. Ongoing improvement to thermal remote sensing at HVO incorporates automated hotspot detection, effusion rate estimation and lava flow forecasting, as has been done in Italy. These improvements should be useful for monitoring future activity on Mauna Loa.

Hawaii

New insights into the Kawah Ijen hydrothermal system from geophysical data

Volcanoes with crater lakes and/or extensive hydrothermal systems pose significant challenges with respect to monitoring and forecasting eruptions, but they also provide new opportunities to enhance our understanding of magmatic–hydrothermal processes. Their lakes and hydrothermal systems serve as reservoirs for magmatic heat and fluid emissions, filtering and delaying the surface expressions of magmatic unrest and eruption, yet they also enable sampling and monitoring of geochemical tracers. Here, we describe the outcomes of a highly focused international experimental campaign and workshop carried out at Kawah Ijen volcano, Indonesia, in September 2014, designed to answer fundamental questions about how to improve monitoring and eruption forecasting at wet volcanoes.

Kawah Ijen

Subsurface controls on the development of the Cape Fear Slide Complex, central US Atlantic Margin

The Cape Fear Slide is one of the largest (>25 000 km 3 ) submarine slope failure complexes on the US Atlantic margin. Here we use a combination of new high-resolution multichannel seismic data (MCS) from the National Science Foundation Geodynamic Processes at Rifting and Subducting Margins (NSF GeoPRISMS) Community Seismic Experiment and legacy industry MCS to derive detailed stratigraphy of this slide and constrain the conditions that lead to slope instability. Limited outer-shelf and upper-slope accommodation space during the Neogene, combined with lowstand fluvial inputs and northwards Gulf Stream sediment transport, appears to have contributed to thick Miocene and Pliocene deposits that onlapped the lower slope. This resulted in burial of an upper-slope bypass zone developed from earlier erosional truncation of Paleogene strata. These deposits created a broad ramp that allowed accumulation of thick Quaternary strata across a low-gradient (<3.5°) upper slope. Upslope of one of the larger headwalls, undulating Quaternary strata appear to downlap onto a buried failure plane. Many of the nested headwalls of the upper-slope portion of slide complex are underlain by deformed strata, which may be the result of fluid migration associated with localized subsidence from salt migration. These new data and observations suggest that antecedent margin physiography, sediment loading and substrate fluid flow were key factors in preconditioning the Cape Fear slope for failure.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

Short and long-term movement of mudflows of the Mississippi River Delta Front and their known and potential impacts on oil and gas infrastructure

Mudflows on the Mississippi River Delta Front (MRDF) are recognized hazards to oil and gas infrastructure in the shallow (20 – 300 m water depth) Gulf of Mexico. Preconditioning of the seafloor for failure results from high sedimentation rates coupled with slope over-steepening, under-consolidation, and abundant biogenic gas production. Catastrophic failure of production platforms and pipelines due to seafloor displacement during infrequent large hurricanes such as Camille in 1969 and Ivan in 2004, point to cyclical loading of the seafloor by waves as a primary movement trigger. Due to data limitations, the role of smaller storms and background oceanographic processes in driving seafloor movement have remained largely unconstrained, but are thought to contribute to significant seafloor change. With the aid of new high-resolution multibeam mapping and seismic reflection profiling across sections of the MRDF, several moving features within the deforming delta-front environment are investigated and potential hazards to infrastructure installed and adjacent to the region are discussed. Via repeat mapping surveys of selected areas and records of changing shipwreck locations, we highlight significant seafloor displacement across annual to decadal timescales. For example, individual blocks mapped within mudflow gullies adjacent to Southwest Pass show downslope transport of more than 80 m in a single year, while the S.S. Virginia, a 153 m-long oil tanker sunk in 1942 has been relocated and found to have moved downslope more than 400 m in 14 years, without a major hurricane (> Category 2) passing through the region.

Louisiana

The importance of nodal plane orientation diversity for earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions

Inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms are among the most accessible and reliable methods for determining crustal stress. However, the use of this method varies widely, and assumptions that underpin it are often violated, potentially compromising stress estimates. We investigate the consequences of violating the little-studied assumption that the focal mechanisms have diverse orientations. Our approach is to employ data-informed synthetic mechanisms, with nodal plane orientations defined by recent earthquake lineaments in the Midland Basin, western Texas, and rakes consistent with slip in the mapped stress field. Using both the traditional stress inversion method that assumes constant shear stress magnitudes on the causative faults as well as a recently published variable shear stress method, we show that low fault plane diversity can cause maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientation and relative principal stress magnitude (faulting regime) estimates to differ markedly from the true values. This problem is compounded for catalogs with even modest amounts of noise (≤15°) or few (e.g., 20) mechanisms. Significantly, traditional approaches for quantifying uncertainty such as the bootstrap can severely underestimate the true uncertainty under these circumstances. To remedy this, we provide simple tools to quantify nodal plane orientation diversity and stress inversion reliability.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

The Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System: A GIS-based tool for assessing groundwater resources

Groundwater is the source of drinking water for &sim;1.4 million people in the Coastal Plain Province of Maryland (USA). In addition, groundwater is essential for commercial, industrial, and agricultural uses. Approximately 0.757 &times; 109 L d &ndash;1 (200 million gallons/d) were withdrawn in 2010. As a result of decades of withdrawals from the coastal plain confined aquifers, groundwater levels have declined by as much as 70 m (230 ft) from estimated prepumping levels. Other issues posing challenges to long-term groundwater sustainability include degraded water quality from both man-made and natural sources, reduced stream base flow, land subsidence, and changing recharge patterns (drought) caused by climate change. In Maryland, groundwater supply is managed primarily by the Maryland Department of the Environment, which seeks to balance reasonable use of the resource with long-term sustainability. The chief goal of groundwater management in Maryland is to ensure safe and adequate supplies for all current and future users through the implementation of appropriate usage, planning, and conservation policies. To assist in that effort, the geographic information system (GIS)&ndash;based Maryland Coastal Plain Aquifer Information System was developed as a tool to help water managers access and visualize groundwater data for use in the evaluation of groundwater allocation and use permits. The system, contained within an ESRI ArcMap desktop environment, includes both interpreted and basic data for 16 aquifers and 14 confining units. Data map layers include aquifer and &shy;confining unit layer surfaces, aquifer extents, borehole information, hydraulic properties, time-series groundwater-level data, well records, and geophysical and lithologic logs. The aquifer and confining unit layer surfaces were generated specifically for the GIS system. The system also contains select groundwater-quality data and map layers that quantify groundwater and surface-water withdrawals. The aquifer information system can serve as a pre- and postprocessing environment for groundwater-flow models for use in water-supply planning, development, and management. The system also can be expanded to include features that evaluate constraints to groundwater development, such as insufficient available drawdown, degraded groundwater quality, insufficient aquifer yields, and well-field interference. Ultimately, the aquifer information system is intended to function as an interactive Web-based utility that provides a broad array of information related to groundwater resources in Maryland&rsquo;s coastal plain to a wide-ranging audience, including well drillers, consultants, academia, and the general public.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America

Metallogeny of the Great Basin: Crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits

The Great Basin physiographic province in the Western United States contains a diverse assortment of world-class ore deposits. It currently (2006) is the world’s second leading producer of gold, contains large silver and base metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Mo, W) deposits, a variety of other important metallic (Fe, Ni, Be, REE’s, Hg, PGE) and industrial mineral (diatomite, barite, perlite, kaolinite, gallium) resources, as well as petroleum and geothermal energy resources. Ore deposits are most numerous and largest in size in linear mineral belts with complex geology. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are in the final year of a research project initiated in the fall of 2001 to increase understanding of relations between crustal evolution, fluid flow, and ore deposits in the Great Basin. Because of its substantial past and current mineral production, this region has been the focus of numerous investigations over the past century and is the site of ongoing research by industry, academia, and state agencies. A variety of geoinformatic tools was used to organize, reinterpret, and display, in space and time, the large amounts of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrologic information deemed pertinent to this problem. This information, in combination with concentrated research on (1) critical aspects of the geologic history, (2) an area in northern Nevada that encompasses the major mineral belts, and (3) important mining districts and deposits, is producing new insights about the interplay between key tectonic events, hydrothermal fluid flow, and ore genesis in mineral belts. The results suggest that the Archean to Holocene history of the Great Basin was punctuated by several tectonic events that caused fluids of different origins (sea water, basinal brine, meteoric water, metamorphic water, magmatic water) to move through the crust. Basement faults reactivated during these events localized deformation, sedimentation, magmatism, and hydrothermal fluid flow in overlying rocks to form mineral belts that contain ore deposits of different types and ages that are locally superimposed (demonstrating inheritance). Fluid flow in these systems also was influenced by the distribution of permeable lithologies and paleotopographic highs and lows. Hydrothermal fluids evolved from their initial chemistries towards compositions that reflect the ƒ O 2 and ƒ S 2 buffering capacity of, and the ligands and metals present in, the rocks (±older mineralization) through which they moved. In northern Nevada, where gold deposits are relatively common, carbonaceous, pyritic strata buffered fluids of diverse origins to H 2 S-rich compositions so they could transport gold repeatedly over Paleozoic-Cenozoic time (convergent evolution). Ore formed where metal-laden fluids encountered effective physicochemical traps. Maps of Neogene basin fill and erosion surfaces identify areas where preexisting ore deposits have been progressively exposed or concealed. Comparisons with analogous terrains and deposit types in other parts of the world provide global context. The initial findings and some of the databases, geologic maps, sections, reconstructions, hydrogeologic models, topical syntheses, regional overviews, short courses, field guides, and deposit comparisons produced by project staff and associated managers, contractors, and collaborators have been presented in numerous abstracts, symposia, USGS publications, and professional journals over the last 5 years (see the extensive bibliography). Notable among these was the 2005 Geological Society of Nevada symposium in Reno, Nevada, and the 2005 Geological Society of America annual meeting in Salt Lake City, Utah, where project results were presented to audiences from around the nation and world. The final results of the project will be submitted for publication in 2007 to appropriate USGS and professional journals. A special issue of GEOSPHERE, scheduled for publication in 2007, will be devoted to the results of this project and related work. This special issue will reach an international audience and be available worldwide on the internet. Much of the research for this project has concentrated on areas that will receive the focused attention of the mining industry in the future. As such, the data and interpretations generated by this project have direct use for land-use managers in Federal, State, and local agencies. Improved hydrogeologic models developed by this project will considerably enhance ongoing and future water resource investigations in the region. The increased understanding of when, where, and how hydrothermal systems produce significant economic deposits has direct uses for mineral exploration and for future USGS mineral resource assessments in the Great Basin and other parts of the world.

Great Basin

A history of herpetologists and herpetology in the U.S. Department of the Interior

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) has a long and distinguished history of employing herpetologists to conduct basic and applied research to better manage amphibian and reptile populations on public lands and even outside the boundaries of the United States. This history extends back over 125 years with roots in the U.S. Biological Survey, the Fish and Wildlife Service, the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service and later, the National Biological Service. In more recent times, the DOI employed more professional herpetologists than any single organization in the world, especially in the U.S. Geological Survey. In 1938, Henry Fitch was the first Interior scientist hired who conducted substantial herpetological research. William and Lucille Stickel of the Fish and Wildlife Service conducted herpetological research throughout the period from the 1940s-1980s but most DOI herpetologists were hired from 1975-80 with another hiring spike from 2000-2005. The former spike was congruent with early versions of the Endangered Species Act while the latter reflected growing recognition of global amphibian decline and the creation of the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative in DOI. Collectively, these herpetologists produced hundreds of books, scientific publications and other scholarly publications, many of which are classics in the literature. In addition, many have served as officers and on the boards of numerous scientific societies particularly those specializing in amphibian and reptile research. The DOI shows a continuing commitment to funding herpetological research by hiring young scientists to replace the aging ranks of herpetologists who started their careers in the 1970s. This commitment is critical given the global decline of both amphibians and reptiles, including those found on public lands in the United States.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2013

In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $93 million (through FY13) in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289, established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). In 2013: The DOI CSCs awarded nearly $7 million in funding to universities and other partners for climate and land-use change research. The scientific work of the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise moved toward projects that focus on &lsquo;Science Infrastructure and Capacity Building&rsquo; and &lsquo;Thematic Science&rsquo;. A permanent director, David Helweg, Ph.D., was hired for the Pacific Islands CSC (PI CSC), completing the CSC leadership team. Staff scientists were hired at the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) CSCs. Each of the eight CSCs completed the formation of regional Stakeholder Advisory Committees (SACs) and a national advisory committee (ACCCNRS) was created to oversee the NCCWSC-CSC enterprise. NCCWSC staff worked on creating a searchable public database on climate change vulnerability assessments. NCCWSC scientists authored articles in a special issue of the Ecological Society of America&rsquo;s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, which was devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems, and the consequences for people. Learn more about these achievements in The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2013 .

Circular

The Geodetic Centroid (gCent) Catalog: Global earthquake monitoring with satellite imaging geodesy

Remote sensing geodetic observations (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR] and optical correlation [“pixel tracking”]) serve an increasingly diverse and important role in earthquake monitoring and response. This study introduces the Geodetic Centroid (gCent) catalog—an earthquake catalog derived solely from space‐based geodetic observations—and analysis of 74 earthquakes ( ⁠ M W 4.3–7.4) imaged from 1 August 2019 to 01 February 2022. For gCent, we use InSAR and optical correlation observations derived from the Sentinel‐1 satellites and various publicly available optical satellites to systematically image all global earthquakes M W 5.5 or larger and shallower than 25 km, M W 7.0 or larger at any depth, and other high‐impact earthquakes or seismic events of special interest. We invert surface displacements from successfully imaged earthquakes for the location, orientation, and dimensions of a single slipping fault patch that describes the centroid characteristics of the earthquake. These centroid models, in turn, are compiled into a catalog and used in U.S. Geological Survey/Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) operational earthquake response products such as ShakeMaps and finite‐fault models. We provide a comparison of the gCent catalog to the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog to compare reported locations, depths, and magnitudes. We find that global earthquake catalogs not only generally provide reasonably comparable locations (within 10 km on average), but also they systematically overestimate depth that may have implications for earthquake shaking predictions based solely on earthquake origin information. Geodetic magnitudes are comparable to seismically inferred magnitudes, indicating that gCent models are unlikely to be systematically biased by the presence of postseismic deformation. We additionally highlight limitations of the gCent catalog induced by both the limitations of remote sensing imaging of earthquakes and our imposition of a simplified earthquake source description that does not include spatially distributed slip.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

The Geology and Petrography of Crater Lake National Park

Twenty years ago Crater Lake was unknown to the general public, but since then a knowledge of its remarkable features has been spread abroad through the press, and Congress recognized its worth as an educational feature and made it a national park by the act approved May 22, 1902. As defined in the bill, the park is 'bounded north by the parallel forty-three degrees four minutes north latitude, south by forty-two degrees forty-eight minutes north latitude, east by the meridian one hundred and twenty-two degrees west longitude, and west by the meridian one hundred and twenty-two degrees sixteen minutes west longitude, having an area of two hundred and forty-nine square miles'. The Ashland sheet of United States Geological Survey, on the scale of 4 miles to 1 inch, includes the area lying between meridians 122 deg and 123 deg and parallels 42 deg and 43 deg. This map includes the region between Ashland and Crater Lake. On account of the great scientific interest of Crater Lake a special map, known as the Crater Lake special sheet, was prepared on the scale of 1 mile to an inch, including the country immediately adjacent to Crater Lake, between meridians 122 deg and 122 deg 15' and parallels 42 deg 50' and 43 deg 4'. From these two maps the accompanying map of the Crater Lake National Park (Pl. 1) has been prepared. The two papers published here refer practically to the whole region included in the National Park. The one, Part I, treats primarily of the geology, the development of the great volcano, Mount Mazama, and its collapse, which gave birth to Crater Lake; the other, Part II, deals with the petrography, and gives a special description of the various rocks occurring in the park. Origin of the name Mount Mazama - A great impetus to the spread of information concerning Crater Lake was given by the Mazamas of Portland, Oreg., who held a meeting at the lake in August, 1896, which attracted many visitors. The principal features in the history of the lake had previously been made out, and the Mazamas, recognizing the fact that the great peak which was nearly destroyed in preparing the pit for the lake had no name, gave it the name of their own society. Upon the rim of the lake are a number of small peaks, each having its own designation. The term Mount Mazama refers to the whole rim encircling the lake. It is but a mere remnant of the once lofty peak, the real Mount Mazama, which rose far into the region of eternal snow. To get a basis for reconstructing the original Mount Mazama it is necessary to study in detail the structure and composition of its foundation, now so attractively displayed in the encircling cliffs of Crater Lake.

Oregon

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI&rsquo;s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI&rsquo;s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists&rsquo; League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program&rsquo;s development and success. The value of ARMI&rsquo;s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI&rsquo;s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI&rsquo;s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2015 annual report

This is the eighth annual report highlighting U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science and decision-support activities conducted for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI). The activities address specific management needs identified by WLCI partner agencies. In 2015, USGS scientists continued 24 WLCI projects in 5 categories: (1) acquiring and analyzing resource-condition data to form a foundation for understanding and monitoring landscape conditions and projecting changes; (2) using new technologies to improve the scope and accuracy of landscape-scale monitoring and assessments, and applying them to monitor indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms that drive wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them to use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. Of the 24 projects, 21 were ongoing, including those that entered new phases or more in-depth lines of inquiry, 2 were new, and 1 was completed. A highlight of 2015 was the WLCI science conference sponsored by the USGS, Bureau of Land Management, and National Park Service in coordination with the Wyoming chapter of The Wildlife Society. Of 260 participants, 41 were USGS professionals representing 13 USGS science centers, field offices, and Cooperative Wildlife Research Units. Major themes of USGS presentations included using new technologies for developing more efficient research protocols for modeling and monitoring natural resources, researching effects of energy development and other land uses on wildlife species and habitats of concern, and modeling species distributions, population trends, habitat use, and effects of land-use changes. There was also a special session on the effectiveness of Wyoming’s Sage-Grouse Executive Order. Combined, USGS presentations provided WLCI partners with a wealth of information and conservation tools. The project completed in 2015 yielded an index of important agricultural lands in the WLCI region. The index improves upon existing measures of agricultural productivity and provides planners and managers with additional values to consider when making decisions about land use and conservation actions. The two new projects include an analysis of satellite imagery to quantify sagebrush productivity and mortality, and an evaluation of how groundwater and small streams interact in the upper Green River Basin. Initiated in response to concern among WLCI partners that large areas of sagebrush appear to have died recently, the sagebrush study objectives are to assess effects of these mortality events on overall sagebrush ecosystem productivity, evaluate the feasibility of using satellite imagery to detect patterns in sagebrush mortality over time, and identify factors driving these mortality events. The groundwater-streamflow interaction study is being conducted by hydrologists and fish ecologists to better understand how groundwater-streamflow interactions are affected by energy-resource development and how native fish communities are affected by these factors. Expected outcomes of both new projects will provide WLCI partners with additional information and decision-support tools. Highlights of ongoing science foundation activities included simulations of nine alternative build-out scenarios for oil and gas development and an associated online fact sheet that explains how the simulations were conducted, with an applied example for the Atlantic Rim. Also completed in 2015 was an update of the USGS online inventory of mineral resources data, and publication of a USGS uranium resource survey for the WLCI region. Combined, the outcomes of this work provide decisionmakers and managers with important baseline information for existing and (or) future planning and monitoring efforts. Terrestrial monitoring activities in 2015 emphasized the use of satellite data in combination with other technologies and field data to monitor, assess, and (or) forecast distribution patterns and (or) trends in sagebrush ecosystems, seasonal and migration stopover habitats used by mule deer and elk, and semi-arid aspen woodlands. Several professional papers detailing new monitoring models and results have been published. Combined, this and related work will help managers understand distribution patterns and trends among priority habitats, identify areas in need of restoration or conservation, and monitor the effectiveness of habitat-management actions. Aquatic monitoring activities entailed not only the new groundwater-streamflow interaction study already mentioned, but also continued monitoring with streamgages paired with nearby wells in the Green River Basin to assess groundwater effects on streamflow and surface water temperatures. A map that portrays groundwater levels and general direction of flow in the Green River Basin was published as well . Overall, outcomes of USGS hydrological research and monitoring will inform WLCI partners about water resources in the WLCI region and help to explain fish-community responses to energy-resource development. In 2015, USGS terrestrial wildlife ecologists continued to make crucial strides towards better understanding wildlife species responses to energy-resource development and other land-use changes. This body of research includes six taxa that require or heavily depend on sagebrush habitats: sage-grouse, pygmy rabbits, 3 songbird species, and mule deer. Native fish communities are also being evaluated. Approaches include modeling and mapping wildlife species distributions, abundances, and trends; using satellite and other technologies to track wildlife seasonal movements; conducting successive phases of research that build on the knowledge gained through prior phases to reveal the specific factors or thresholds that drive population- or individual-level responses to changes; and conducting population viability analyses. Additionally, wildlife habitat association models for pygmy rabbit and sage-grouse were combined with the oil and gas build-out scenarios to project species responses to alternative energy development scenarios. Outcomes of the wildlife response research are helping decisionmakers and managers identify specific factors that contribute to species population trends, the potential for spatial overlap between important wildlife habitats and proposed energy-resource development, locations of priority habitats for restoration and conservation, and more. Data and WLCI Web site management highlights of 2015 included not only ongoing software upgrades, but also an update of the datasets displayed in two of the online products developed for the WLCI effort: (1) a map of 15,532 oil and natural gas well pad scars and other features associated with oil and gas extraction, and (2) a map of oil and gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production, both for southwestern Wyoming. In addition, a map viewer was developed for a previously published map of coal and wind production in relation to sage-grouse distribution and core management areas in southwestern Wyoming. Combined, these maps place valuable decision-support tools in the hands of WLCI partners. The USGS coordination efforts on behalf of the WLCI in 2015 included significant work on planning and executing the WLCI science conference. They also included ongoing efforts to support Local Project Development Teams and the WLCI Coordination Team (CT) with developing conservation priorities and strategies, identifying priority areas for future conservation actions, supporting the evaluation and ranking of conservation projects, and evaluating the ways in which proposed habitat projects relate to WLCI priorities. In 2015, the USGS also assisted the WLCI CT with updating the WLCI Conservation Action Plan.

Wyoming

Recent faulting in the Gulf of Santa Catalina: San Diego to Dana Point

We interpret seismic-reflection profiles to determine the location and offset mode of Quaternary offshore faults beneath the Gulf of Santa Catalina in the inner California Continental Borderland. These faults are primarily northwest-trending, right-lateral, strike-slip faults, and are in the offshore Rose Canyon-Newport-Inglewood, Coronado Bank, Palos Verdes, and San Diego Trough fault zones. In addition we describe a suite of faults imaged at the base of the continental slope between Dana Point and Del Mar, California. Our new interpretations are based on high-resolution, multichannel seismic (MCS), as well as very high resolution Huntec and GeoPulse seismic-reflection profiles collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from 1998 to 2000 and MCS data collected by WesternGeco in 1975 and 1981, which have recently been made publicly available. Between La Jolla and Newport Beach, California, the Rose Canyon and Newport-Inglewood fault zones are multistranded and generally underlie the shelf break. The Rose Canyon fault zone has a more northerly strike; a left bend in the fault zone is required to connect with the Newport-Inglewood fault zone. A prominent active anticline at mid-slope depths (300-400 m) is imaged seaward of where the Rose Canyon fault zone merges with the Newport-Inglewood fault zone. The Coronado Bank fault zone is a steeply dipping, northwest-trending zone consisting of multiple strands that are imaged from south of the U.S.-Mexico border to offshore of San Mateo Point. South of the La Jolla fan valley, the Coronado Bank fault zone is primarily transtensional; this section of the fault zone ends at the La Jolla fan valley in a series of horsetail splays. The northern section of the Coronado Bank fault zone is less well developed. North of the La Jolla fan valley, the Coronado Bank fault zone forms a positive flower structure that can be mapped at least as far north as Oceanside, a distance of ??35 km. However, north of Oceanside, the Coronado Bank fault zone is more discontinuous and in places has no strong physiographic expression. The San Diego Trough fault zone consists of one or two well-defined linear fault strands that cut through the center of the San Diego Trough and strike N30??W. North of the La Jolla fan valley, this fault zone steps to the west and is composed of up to four fault strands. At the base of the continental slope, faults that show recency of movement include the San Onofre fault and reverse, oblique-slip faulting associated with the San Mateo and Carlsbad faults. In addition, the low-angle Oceanside detachment fault is imaged beneath much of the continental slope, although reflectors associated with the detachment are more prominent in the area directly offshore of San Mateo Point. North of San Mateo Point, the Oceanside fault is imaged as a northeast-dipping detachment surface with prominent folds deforming hanging-wall strata. South of San Mateo point, reflectors associated with the Oceanside detachment are often discontinuous with variable dip as imaged in WesternGeco MCS data. Recent motion along the Oceanside detachment as a reactivated thrust fault appears to be limited primarily to the area between Dana and San Mateo Points. Farther south, offshore of Carlsbad, an additional area of folding associated with the Carlsbad fault also is imaged near the base of the slope. These folds coincide with the intersection of a narrow subsurface ridge that trends at a high angle to and intersects the base of the continental slope. The complex pattern of faulting observed along the base of the continental slope associated with the San Mateo, San Onofre, and Carlsbad fault zones may be the result of block rotation. We propose that the clockwise rotation of a small crustal block between the Newport-Inglewood-Rose Canyon and Coronado Bank fault zones accounts for the localized enhanced folding along the Gulf of Santa Catalina margin. Prominent subsurface basement ridges imaged offshore of Dana Point m

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America