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573 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Light-dependent activity of deepwater sculpin (Myoxocephalus thompsonii) across substrates with and without predation risk

Light availability strongly influences predator–prey interactions in deepwater ecosystems, where visual constraints shape both foraging success and prey behavior. The behavioral response of deepwater sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) to siscowet lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush siscowet ) was studied under ecologically relevant light intensities spanning several orders of magnitude typical of daytime downwelling light in the 20–100 m depth range of Lake Superior. Trials were conducted over varying substrates (gravel, sand, and black fabric). Deepwater sculpin showed a significant preference for gravel over sand and black fabric. In the absence of siscowet, sculpin movement frequency increased as light intensity decreased. Sculpin reaction distance to siscowet was influenced by both light and substrate. Reaction distance was shortest at low light intensities, peaked at intermediate light intensities (3.05 × 10⁹ to < 6.0 × 10⁹ photons m⁻2 s⁻1), and declined again at the highest light intensities tested. In the presence of siscowet, sculpin activity was suppressed at the upper end of the light range (≥ 6.0 × 10⁹ photons m⁻2 s⁻1). The greatest increase in movement occurred between 6.0 × 10⁹ and 3.05 × 10⁹ photons m⁻2 s⁻1, which corresponded to the range where siscowet prey capture declined, suggesting sculpin exploit this low-light window to move with reduced risk. Reduced activity in the presence of predators is common among cryptic species, and our findings suggest that sculpin restrict movement at higher light levels to avoid detection by siscowet.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Design and function of the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System (ABISS) for remote sensing of lake and seabed environments

Lake and seabed environments are home to fisheries and other biota that are important to ecosystems and economies, yet these environments and the species that use them are difficult to accurately assess and monitor. Traditional benthic survey techniques, like bottom trawling used by the U.S. Geological Survey, are limited by substrate constraints, poor spatial resolution and precision, and operational depth limits, hindering accurate assessment of benthic species and habitats. In response to these limitations, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System, a camera system integrated into underwater vehicles, to capture high-resolution images of the lakebed. The system uses color and stereo cameras to collect imagery, which can be analyzed using computational methods to detect organisms and (or) characterize habitat features, such as geologic substrate types. The system has been integrated into autonomous underwater vehicles and into an underwater housing used by self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) divers. Although the engineering of the system was motivated by the need for data collection in the Great Lakes, it has potential to collect high quality data in any aqueous setting with sufficient water clarity and safe operating conditions. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System can operate across diverse depths and light conditions to map and quantify ecological patterns that were difficult or impossible to assess using traditional methods. The Autonomous Benthic Imaging and Surveying System offers the potential for accurate and precise monitoring and assessment of native benthic biota, invasive species, and habitat, potentially providing natural resource managers with improved information to support decision making about benthic resource management.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2026

Simulation of groundwater flow to evaluate hydrogeologic controls on a PFAS plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the landfill in 1998. The adjacent area to the Coakley Landfill has many water supply wells, and transport of PFAS compounds to the wells is a concern. Fracture anisotropy in the underlying bedrock aquifer complicates the understanding of PFAS transport because groundwater preferentially travels along fractures that may not align with the prevailing groundwater flow direction. In 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey began an investigation of the groundwater flow from the Coakley Landfill site. This report describes the modification of a numerical groundwater-flow model for the local area around the Coakley Landfill and summarizes findings of the investigation. In addition, this report includes a brief description of PFOA and PFOS occurrence, a discussion of model construction, evaluation of model performance through calibration, and discussion of simulation results for two periods (before and after capping). Limitations are also discussed. Results show that simulated groundwater flow moves from the Coakley Landfill to the west and north. Advective transport modeling using particle tracking shows that groundwater from the landfill discharges primarily to streams to the west and north, and a small amount is transported to distal wells. Dilution of contaminants through advection and dispersion likely plays a role in whether PFAS compounds from the landfill will be detected above laboratory reporting levels at distal wells.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2025

An inset groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of layering configuration on model calibration and assess managed aquifer recharge near Shellmound, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a high-resolution inset groundwater-flow model in the Mississippi Delta as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration coordinated by the Mississippi Alluvial Plain project to provide a tool that stakeholders can use to support water-resource management decisions. Groundwater withdrawals from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer have been vital to support agricultural production in the region, but substantial groundwater-level declines near Shellmound, Mississippi, have caused concerns for long-term sustainability of the aquifer. To better understand the subsurface and try to mitigate the long-term groundwater-level declines, stakeholders have undertaken actions including a Groundwater Transfer and Injection Pilot (GTIP) project using a riverbank filtration-based managed aquifer recharge approach. The pilot project consisted of extracting groundwater near the Tallahatchie River and reinjecting it into the aquifer 3 kilometers west where water levels have substantially declined. A high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey was also completed to collect electrical resistivity data to support the GTIP project and the development of the groundwater model. The inset groundwater-flow model was developed to (1) integrate the AEM data into the optimal layering configuration of the MRVA aquifer that the available observation data can support through calibration, and (2) assess the potential effect of the GTIP project on the groundwater levels. The AEM data were processed into three different layering configurations leading to the development of model A (18 layers), model B (16 layers), and model C (8 layers), all at a 100- x 100-meter cell spatial resolution using the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model 6 code with Newton-Raphson formulation. The model development process integrated recent advances in modeling, such as the incorporation of AEM data, the use of outputs from the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, and the Aquaculture and Irrigation Water-Use Model, and was facilitated by robust automation using the open-source python packages Modflow-setup and SFRmaker. Using Parameter Estimation ++ Iterative Ensemble Smoother, the three numerical groundwater-flow models (models A, B, and C) were calibrated against a set of observations, which included aquifer groundwater levels, streamflows, stream stage, and aquifer transmissivity. Results indicate that the detailed representation of MRVA aquifer layers in model A produced the best calibrated model by history matching, and the integration of data representing surficial connectivity played a key role in improving groundwater recharge and enhancing the ability of the model to match groundwater levels in the cone of depression. A forecast model simulated the managed aquifer recharge approach, and the results indicated that, given average irrigation and recharge conditions (2010–15), the GTIP project has the potential to induce groundwater-level increases of as much as 3 meters around the injection site, but a sustained increase would require repetition in subsequent years of water transfer at 2022 rates or above.

Mississippi↗
USGS2026

Non-destructive sampling of larval amphibians shows tail tissues reflect whole-body methylmercury concentrations and trophic-related differences in bioaccumulation

Mercury (Hg), and specifically methylmercury (MeHg), is a contaminant of global concern to humans and wildlife, but there is still limited understanding of its effects on many taxa. Amphibians are closely associated with water, where Hg is converted to MeHg, and high concentrations of MeHg can reduce survival of amphibians in the wild. However, limited non-lethal proxies exist for estimating MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibian larvae, which could be used to reduce destructive sampling and allow sampling of imperiled species. We evaluated whether tail clips were indicative of whole-body MeHg concentrations of larval amphibians, whether dragonflies were an effective bioindicator of Hg concentrations of larval amphibians, and compared MeHg bioaccumulation in predatory caudate (salamanders, newts) and non-predatory anuran (frogs, toads) larvae. Tail-clip and whole-body MeHg concentrations were strongly correlated, especially for caudates. There was high variability among sites and species, but caudates had higher MeHg than anurans, and MeHg concentrations of caudates and anurans were strongly correlated. Dragonflies were a weak indicator of MeHg for anurans but strong indicators for larval caudates, likely because caudates and dragonflies are carnivorous and occupy similar trophic positions. Our study revealed that sampling tails can be an effective non-destructive index of whole-body MeHg for larval amphibians and demonstrates differences in MeHg bioaccumulation related to trophic position in larval amphibians and dragonflies. All post-embryo life stages for a broad suite of amphibian species can now be sampled non-lethally for MeHg, allowing for a broader examination of population-level effects and focus on imperiled species that cannot be sampled destructively.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Arsenic and isotope concentrations in the lower Platte River valley of eastern Nebraska, early 1970s to 2023

The City of Lincoln, Nebraska, has been monitoring concentrations of arsenic in their source water and evaluating their options for treatment and removal since at least 2002. In 2022, the City of Lincoln, Nebr., with funding assistance from the Nebraska Water Sustainability Fund, began cooperating with the U.S. Geological Survey to examine arsenic concentrations in surface water and groundwater in the lower Platte River valley and the area around City of Lincoln Water System (LWS) well field. Arsenic data collected from the Platte River since 1974 were examined using the “weighted regression on time, discharge, and season” model, which compared the streamflow (also referred to as “discharge”), time of year, and season to estimate concentrations of arsenic. Annual mean arsenic concentrations modeled for more than 49 years at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., U.S. Geological Survey streamgage (station 06805500), indicated a significant increasing trend. Arsenic concentrations in the Platte River were seasonal, with the highest concentrations being observed during mid- to late summer. When seasonal patterns and streamflow were combined with arsenic concentrations in the Platte River during low streamflow conditions, groundwater contributions, which can have higher arsenic concentrations, make up a larger portion of the streamflow. Arsenic samples were collected from upstream rivers in 2022 and 2023 and were paired to analyze the arsenic contributions at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr. (station 06801000), near the City of Lincoln well field. The arsenic concentrations from the streamgage on the Platte River near Ashland, Nebr., location, were higher than the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. (station 06800500), and significantly lower than at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage on the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr.(station 06796500), indicating that the Platte River usually contributes a higher concentration of arsenic than does the Elkhorn River as they join near Ashland, Nebr. During 1991–2023, six groundwater monitoring wells were analyzed to identify trends in arsenic concentrations. Two of the six wells had a positive trend during the 33-year period. One monitoring well did not reveal a long-term trend during this period but showed a trend during 2019–23, correlating to a period when the island in the middle of the Platte River was connected to the east bank of the river when manganese reducing conditions were present and groundwater levels were declining in the well. Across all wells the oxidation and reduction (redox) condition during the time of sampling was assessed. Mixed anoxic and (or) oxic redox condition was the most common redox process and the highest sampled arsenic concentrations in monitoring wells were observed in anoxic conditions driven by manganese reduction. Groundwater arsenic concentrations had seasonal variation around the City of Lincoln well field, with higher arsenic concentrations tending to be further south in comparison to samples collected further north. Isotope samples were collected and analyzed in surface water and groundwater around the LWS well field. The samples indicate that the proportion of surface water present in the LWS production wells can be higher in the spring and lower in the summer. With higher arsenic concentrations observed in the stream water during the summer period, the LWS source water can be affected by these elevated arsenic concentrations even though the proportion of surface water is lower.

Nebraska↗
USGS2025

The impact of burial diagenesis on soil-formed minerals in paleosols using stable isotopes of phyllosilicates and carbonate clumped isotopes

To understand the effects of burial diagenesis on the stable isotope geochemistry of soil-formed clay and carbonate minerals in paleosols, samples were collected from seven cores, spanning middle- to upper-Pennsylvanian strata of the Illinois Basin, with varied maximum burial depths of 1–3 km. Mixed-layer illite-smectite and kaolinite mixtures give δ 2 H and δ 18 O values of −83 ‰ to −36 ‰ and 11.9 ‰ to 21.1 ‰ (VSMOW), respectively. After carbonates were screened petrographically for diagenetic textures using transmitted light and cathodoluminescence, measured clumped isotope Δ 47 values range from 0.504 to 0.563 ‰ (I-CDES). Resulting mineral formation temperatures for phyllosilicate mineral mixtures are 28 to 66 °C (mean = 47 °C), whereas T(Δ 47 ) estimates for calcites are 36 to 61 °C (mean = 45 °C). Calculated δ 18 O water values from which phyllosilicate minerals and calcites precipitated under isotopic equilibrium ranges from −7.1 to −1.2 ‰ and − 1.4 to +4.9 ‰, respectively. Closed and open-system phyllosilicate-fluid exchange modeling indicates that phyllosilicate alteration occurred in the presence of a low temperature brine or meteoric water and is interpreted to occur in a layer-by-layer illitization transformation. Due to the lack of diagenetic textures and positively correlated T(Δ 47 ) and δ 18 O water , calcites are interpreted to have undergone solid-state bond reordering. Despite low to moderate temperatures (<125 °C) and varying depths of shallow burial (1–3 km), solid-state transformation of phyllosilicates and calcites indicates paleosols had prolonged exposure to burial conditions which has implications for the use of paleosol minerals for paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky↗
USGS2025

Ultramafic float rocks at Jezero crater (Mars): Excavation of lower crustal rocks or mantle peridotites by impact cratering?

Based on observation and data from meteorites and in situ scientific missions, experiments as well as models, the Martian mantle is assumed to share some compositional and mineralogical affinity with the terrestrial mantle. However, there might be subtle differences like the Martian mantle being more ferroan. Yet, we do not have any direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock to confirm this assumption. NASA’s Perseverance rover found olivine-rich boulder-sized float rocks on the upper Jezero fan (Mars). These boulders have an ultramafic composition and their mineralogy is dominantly composed of Fo 73±3 olivine with high-Mg orthopyroxene, Cr-rich Ti-Fe oxides and minor plagioclase and high-Ca pyroxene. Microtextural and petrological analysis reveals that these minerals crystallized at equilibrium. In addition, these boulders are different from all the bedrocks analyzed by Perseverance along its traverse which are crustal igneous rocks and sediments. Comparing our data to Martian meteorites and available Mars bulk silicate models (BSM), we discuss that these boulders could represent primitive melts and/or lower crustal material, and we specifically hypothesize that they could be mantle peridotites. We propose that these putative mantle rocks could have been excavated by the succession of impacts from the shallow mantle or lower crust in the Isidis region where Jezero crater is located. These olivine-rich boulders could thereby constitute the first direct analysis of a Martian mantle rock.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2024

Editorial: From cold seeps to hydrothermal vents: Geology, chemistry, microbiology, and ecology in marine and coastal environments

This Research Topic compiles contemporary studies on cold seeps, hydrothermal vents, mud volcanoes, and related seafloor features that are associated with focused fluid emissions and the transfer of carbon, other chemical species, and sometimes heat from the geosphere to the ocean. Because these features sometimes tap fluids and gas originating kilometers below the seafloor, they provide an important window into deep processes that are otherwise inaccessible to scientists. At the shallow portion of their journey, migrating fluids nearing the seafloor contribute to a range of unique biological, physical, and chemical processes within the sediments themselves and at the sediment-water interface. Seafloor fluid emissions play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycles, ocean chemistry, and possibly even climate change. Seafloor leakage points often emit hydrocarbon gases (especially methane and CO 2 ) and are sometimes the loci for deposition of seafloor minerals that have economic value. A burgeoning area of research focuses on natural products generated at these features, seeking compounds with potential pharmaceutical or other applications. Multidisciplinary studies have become routine for characterization of seafloor fluid emission sites, attesting to the inseparability of geologic, physical, chemical, and biological processes in these settings. It is increasingly common for researchers to combine in a single research cruise: subbottom imaging and seafloor mapping; porewater and water column geochemistry and gas sampling; sediment retrieval for lithologic, biostratigraphic, and solid phase analyses; and studies of benthic and subseafloor communities at the microbial to macrofaunal scales. This multidisciplinary approach has the advantage of ensuring the spatial and temporal coincidence of surveys and samples, an important factor at highly dynamic seafloor fluid emission sites. In addition, researchers often use remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), or human-occupied vehicles (HOVs) to record video of the seafloor, compile photomosaics, collect targeted samples, and survey with high-resolution geophysical near-seafloor systems, providing a degree of detail about seafloor fluid emission sites that is unprecedented compared to most areas of the deep ocean. While rarer, long-term cabled observatories or shorter-term deployments of portable observatories are also used at some loci for seafloor fluid flux and are particularly helpful for capturing temporal variations at these dynamic features. Here we summarize the Research Topic’s contribution to multidisciplinary seafloor emission studies in the categories of cold seeps, mud volcanoes, and hydrothermal vents. Figure 1 shows the geographic distribution of the studies in this Research Topic and key features referred to in this Introduction.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2025

Mechanics and statistics of postseismic shaking

Analysis of two weeks of continuous post-seismic shaking after the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence using 4 nearby borehole seismometers reveals that continuous ground motions decay as Omori’s law in time and follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in logarithmic amplitude. The measured temporal decay in amplitudes agrees with predictions of the rate-and-state framework and indicates shaking amplitudes are proportional to the velocity of afterslip. Our ground motion-based statistical framework provides a basis to forecast shaking intensity in the minutes to hours after a large earthquake.

California↗
USGS1999

The effects of the Chesapeake Bay impact crater on the geological framework and correlation of hydrogeologic units of the lower York-James Peninsula, Virginia

This report documents the highly variable structure, stratigraphy, and buried topography of the outer rim of the Chesapeake Bay impact crater created by its impact and burial. Lithologies of cores are correlated with borehole geophysical logs to characterize the physical properties of the stratigraphic units and their geophysical signatures. The correlation between cores, well cuttings, and borehole geophysical logs is augmented with seismic-reflection data, and these data are compiled into a lithostratigraphic cross section that illustrates the geological framework of the lower York-James Peninsula and immediate surrounding areas.

Virginia↗
USGS2026

Repeated coral bleaching events have eroded reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Coral bleaching is now the primary driver of coral-reef degradation globally, threatening the persistence of coral-reef functions and the invaluable ecosystem services they support. The Florida Keys have been impacted by four severe, regional-scale coral-bleaching events, which occurred in 1997–1998, 2005, 2014–2015, and 2023. Our aim in this study was to quantify the effects of those thermal-stress events on the persistence of coral-reef structures. We leveraged long-term coral-reef monitoring data to quantify the impacts of coral bleaching on coral cover, carbonate production, and reef-accretion potential throughout the Florida Keys from 1996–2024. Our study indicates that coral bleaching drove significant declines of reef-building corals, which successively diminished regional-scale reef-accretion potential (from 1.65 ± 0.33 mm y -1 in 1996) and culminated with a regional-scale transition to net reef erosion (-0.12 ± 0.08 mm y -1 ) following the 2023 event. Coral bleaching was the primary driver of declining reef-building capacity, with the cumulative impacts of the four coral-bleaching events accounting for >75% of total declines since 1996. The 1997–1998 event alone drove ~50% of overall declines, largely due to losses of the shallow-water ecosystem engineer, Acropora palmata . More moderate impacts of thermal stress on regional reef-accretion potential in 2005 (6%) and 2014–2015 (9%) could lend some support to the hypothesis that the remaining corals were more thermally tolerant; however, the unprecedented thermal stress event in 2023 caused widespread coral-bleaching and bleaching-related mortality, and caused an additional 12% of the total decline in reef-accretion potential. Stony-coral tissue loss disease accounted for an additional 6% of the decline, with the remaining 19% unexplained. Coral bleaching has already dramatically reshaped the structure and function of coral reefs in the Florida Keys over the last three decades. With the high likelihood that thermal stress will accelerate moving forward, the persistence of Florida’s essential coral-reef functions and services is uncertain.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Petrography and mineralogy of selected pre-Middle Jurassic basement rocks beneath the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains in Florida

Florida is covered by flat-lying sedimentary strata of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains. These strata have accumulated since Middle Jurassic time. The pre-Middle Jurassic, or basement, rocks that underlie the Coastal Plain in Florida are known only from drill cores and cuttings recovered from a relatively small number of boreholes. This data report presents petrographic observations and the results of X-ray diffraction analyses of basement rocks from 18 boreholes across Florida in support of the identification, discrimination, and correlation of units for a subcrop geologic map of pre-Middle Jurassic rocks composing Florida’s sub-Coastal Plain geology.

Florida↗
USGS2026

Geologic map of the Emmons Lake volcanic center, Alaska

Introduction The Emmons Lake volcanic center is a spatially clustered group of stratovolcanoes and calderas in the southwestern part of the Alaska Peninsula, Alaska. The volcanic center is characterized by several ice- and snow-clad stratovolcanoes located within and along the margins of a nested-caldera complex that includes Emmons Lake. A shieldlike ancestral edifice (ancestral Mount Emmons) is truncated by the caldera complex and forms a broad volcanic platform around the center. The main stratovolcanoes of the Emmons Lake volcanic center are Pavlof Sister, Pavlof Volcano, Little Pavlof, Double Crater, Mount Hague, and Mount Emmons. Several small unnamed cinder cones and vents also are located within Emmons Lake volcanic center and on the east flank of Pavlof Volcano. Many of these cones and vents have been the source of the young lava flows that mantle the floor of the caldera. Pavlof Volcano, in the northeastern part of the Emmons Lake volcanic center, is one of the most historically (that is, the past about 300 years) active volcanoes in Alaska, and eruptions from Pavlof Volcano pose the greatest hazards to the region. Volcanic rocks of the Emmons Lake volcanic center overlie continental and marine sedimentary rocks of chiefly Late Jurassic to early Tertiary age. The oldest rocks in the area are those of the Naknek Formation, consisting of volcaniclastic sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate of Late Jurassic age. The southern part of the area includes rocks of the Belkofski Formation, a thick sequence of volcaniclastic sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate of middle Tertiary age. Lava flows, volcanic breccia, and fluvial volcaniclastic rocks of late Miocene age, which unconformably overlie the Belkofski Formation south of the Emmons Lake volcanic center, are primarily exposed on the islands just south of the Alaska Peninsula. The Emmons Lake volcanic center was affected multiple times by glaciation associated with the glacier expansion that characterized the Quaternary. Glaciation has played a key role in shaping the present-day landscape, and much of the eruptive history of the Emmons Lake volcanic center has involved interactions with glacier ice. Thus, a brief review of the Quaternary glacial history of the area is provided to establish the physical context for Emmons Lake volcanic center eruptive activity.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey geomagnetic variometer data: Capitalizing on seismic infrastructure

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Geomagnetism Program is collaborating with the Earthquake Hazards Program and Global Seismographic Network Program to densify magnetic field observations. This collaboration focuses on the installation of magnetometers, or magnetic variometers, at existing seismic stations. Along with improving the density of space weather observations for hazard monitoring, these data can be used to correct colocated magnetic field induced noise in seismic data. Such corrections are especially useful during time periods of large magnetic storms where the magnetic field‐induced instrument noise can be of similar amplitude to earthquake ground‐motion records.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

Evaluation of stream capture related to groundwater pumping, middle Humboldt River Basin, Nevada

Historical, future, and potential stream capture from groundwater pumping in the middle Humboldt River Basin (MHRB), Nevada, is estimated using a calibrated numerical groundwater flow model. The model was developed to estimate (1) stream capture, which is the change in flux between the groundwater system and the Humboldt River and tributaries, and (2) change in streamflow, which is the change in streamflow estimated for the Imlay gage on the Humboldt River (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historical stream capture for water years (WYs) 1961–2015 is estimated using recorded and estimated groundwater pumping during that period. Future (predictive) stream capture was based on historical stresses (WYs 1961–2015) using a scenario that simulated non-mine pumping from WY 2015 at a uniform rate for 100 years into the future. Potential stream capture throughout the middle Humboldt River Basin from groundwater pumping during varying durations of time are presented in a series of capture maps. Maps also are presented that show the potential to capture from groundwater evapotranspiration, as well as the storage changes for pumping duration of 100 years. Estimates of historical stream capture from the mainstem Humboldt River during the early 1960s are less than 400 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) when groundwater withdrawals and pumping rates were relatively small compared to more recent times. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, groundwater withdrawals increased and estimated historical stream capture also increased from about 4,000 acre-ft/yr in the late 1980s and early 1990s to as much as 18,800 acre-feet (acre-ft) in WY 1998. In WY 2015, estimated historical stream capture declined to about 13,000 acre-ft because of decreasing groundwater withdrawals and lower streamflow during the drought of WYs 2012–15, resulting in less stream water available for capture. Stream capture was estimated for 100 years into the future based on WY 2015 non-mine pumping rates and mine-dewatering activity through WY 2015. Stream capture is forecast to increase to about 23,000 acre-ft/yr, and streamflow in the Humboldt River could decrease by as much as 19,000 acre-ft/yr. Pumping for mine-dewatering and the associated discharge of that water affects streamflow in the Humboldt River at Imlay, Nevada (U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 10333000). Historically, from WYs 1991 to 2015, streamflow was greater at Imlay gage during active mine-dewatering from mine-water discharge operations and increased by as much as 105,000 acre-ft in WY 1998. The increase was attributed mostly to the discharge of groundwater from mine-related dewatering operations directly into the mainstem Humboldt River or its tributaries, with some of this increase associated with return flows from discharge to rapid infiltration basins. Results indicate that streamflow at Imlay gage is expected to decrease by as much as 1,600 acre-ft/yr 30 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. The streamflow reductions at the Imlay gage are expected to then decrease to around 500 acre-ft/yr, 100 years after mine-related pumping and discharge are discontinued. Potential capture maps were produced for pumping durations of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Capture map results indicate that areas of greater potential stream capture occur adjacent to the Humboldt River and for upstream tributaries areas north of the Humboldt River.

Nevada↗
USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

To assess risks associated with advanced technologies’ supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed mineral “criticality” assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. Previous work developed subjective supply risk indicators to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and trading partners’ political stability, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies export barrier probability using an ensemble of machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables, including prior barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. The Supplementary Data File provides export barrier probability estimates for each analyzed country-commodity pair, enabling a direct, quantitative, objective contribution to assessing mineral criticality, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

Resources, Conservation, and Recycling↗
USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

As demand for advanced technologies rises, mineral commodities will increase in geopolitical importance. To assess risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed "criticality" assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. In previous work, subjective supply risk indicators were developed to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and political stability of trading partners, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies trade barrier probability using an ensemble of several machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables such as prior trade barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in the high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. This approach enables a direct, quantitative, objective approach to assessing trade barrier probability, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

SSRN↗