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Benthic habitat map of U.S. Coral Reef Task Force Faga‘alu Bay priority study area, Tutuila, American Samoa

The coral reef in Faga‘alu Bay, Tutuila, American Samoa, has suffered numerous natural and anthropogenic stresses. Areas once dominated by live coral are now mostly rubble surfaces covered with turf or macroalgae. In an effort to improve the health and resilience of the coral reef system, the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force selected Faga‘alu Bay as a priority study area. To support these efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey mapped nearly 1 km 2 of seafloor to depths of about 60 m. Unconsolidated sediment (predominantly sand) constitutes slightly greater than 50 percent of the seafloor in the mapped area; reef and other hardbottom potentially available for coral recruitment constitute nearly 50 percent of the mapped area. Of this potentially available hardbottom, only slightly greater than 37 percent is covered with at least 10 percent coral, which is fairly evenly distributed between the reef flat, fore reef, and offshore bank/shelf.

American Samoa

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Conference Paper

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a 1-2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.

Coral Reefs

Hydrodynamics of spur and groove formations on a coral reef

Spur and groove (SAG) formations are found on the fore reefs of many coral reefs worldwide. Although these formations are primarily present in wave‐dominated environments, their effect on wave‐driven hydrodynamics is not well understood. A two‐dimensional, depth‐averaged, phase‐resolving nonlinear Boussinesq model ( funwaveC ) was used to model hydrodynamics on a simplified SAG system. The modeling results show that the SAG formations together with shoaling waves induce a nearshore Lagrangian circulation pattern of counter‐rotating circulation cells. The mechanism driving the modeled flow is an alongshore imbalance between the pressure gradient (PG) and nonlinear wave (NLW) terms in the momentum balance. Variations in model parameters suggest the strongest factors affecting circulation include spur‐normal waves, increased wave height, weak alongshore currents, increased spur height, and decreased bottom drag. The modeled circulation is consistent with a simple scaling analysis based on the dynamical balance of NLW, PG, and bottom stress terms. Model results indicate that the SAG formations efficiently drive circulation cells when the alongshore SAG wavelength allows for the effects of diffraction to create alongshore differences in wave height without changing the mean wave angle.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Modeling fluvial sediment plumes: Impacts to coral reefs

To help guide watershed restoration to reduce the impacts to adjacent coral reefs, the United States Geological Survey and Deltares acquired and analyzed oceanographic and sedimentologic data off 5 West Maui watersheds to calibrate and validate physics-based, numerical hydrodynamic and sediment transport models of the study area. The results indicated sheltered sites are impacted by terrestrial sediment from single stream mouths, with most of the sediment delivered within hours of a flood event. Once this sediment enters the nearshore, it settles out and remains on the reef for a prolonged period. In contrast, the coral reefs along “open” sections of coastline are more exposed to waves and terrestrial sediment from multiple stream sources and the terrestrial sediment can rarely settle but instead remains in suspension, causing turbidity. These analyses underscore the importance of understanding how hydro-dynamics can lead to different sediment dynamics on coral reefs in the same region.

Conference Paper

Baseline assessments for coral reef community structure and demographics on West Maui

The coastal and upslope terrains of West Maui have had a long history of impacts owing to more than a century of human activities. Resource extraction, agriculture, as well as residential and resort development have caused land-based pollution that impairs water quality and adversely impact the adjacent marine ecosystem. Today, West Maui’s coral reefs are chronically impacted by the effects of land-based pollution, mainly sedimentation and nutrients, with documented losses of 30 – 75% in coral cover over the last 20 years. Nonetheless, despite their current status and levels of environmental impact, these coral reef communities represent a key local resource and a counterpoint to the overall low coral reef development levels both island- and state-wide. This is of high relevance because the occurrence of coral-rich assemblages and accreted reef complexes statewide is sparse. Only limited segments along the coastlines of Maui, Hawai‘i, Lana‘i, Moloka‘i, and Kaho‘olawe, harbor mature, fringing coral reefs; and unfortunately, many of them are seriously threatened by terrestrial runoff. This report describes the results of baseline assessment surveys of coral reef benthic structure, coral community demographics, and coral condition. These surveys are intended to provide benchmarks for continued monitoring efforts and provide a gauge for comparing and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions to reduce land-based sources of pollution in priority watersheds on West Maui. Within this context, 12 permanent, long-term monitoring sites were strategically established adjacent to the 7 primary stream drainages (Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Mahinahina, Kahana/Ka‘opala, Honokeana, Honokahua, and Honolua) within the five priority watersheds (Wahikuli, Honokōwai, Kahana, Honokahua, and Honolua). Herein, benthic cover and composition, coral demographics, and coral condition of the monitoring sites are described and contrasted in the “Benthic Characterization” and “Synthesis and Discussion” sections of this report. The baseline assessments revealed that although some areas harbor prominent coral reef structures with high live coral cover and multispecies assemblages, others are characterized by sediment-impacted corals in impoverished and species-poor communities. Mean coral cover varied widely, from 49% at Wahikuli-shallow to 4.6% at Mahinahina-shallow. Similarly, coralline algal cover averaged 12.7% at Ka‘opala and Honokeana-north, but was altogether absent at the Mahinahina sites. Macroalgae was a minor component of the benthos across all study sites, representing only up to 2.3% at Mahinahina-south, while turf algae varied considerably, from 41% at Honokeana-north to 84% at the Honokahua site. Consequently, the Benthic Substrate Ratio (BSR) also varied considerably region wide, with the highest values (≥ 1), suggesting a healthier reef condition reported for the Wahikuli, Honokeana, and Honokōwai sites; and the lowest (≤ 0.5), suggesting impairment in structure and function, recorded at the Honolua and Honokahua sites. Adult colony densities were the highest at the Wahikuli (27 col/m 2 ) but lowest at the Ka‘opala (7 col/m2 ) site. And, colony partial mortality peaked at the Ka‘opala (33%) and was the lowest at the Honokeana Bay (12%). Moreover, in-situ and derived estimates of water turbidity and sediment loading revealed that the Ka‘opala and Wahikuli stream sites ranked the highest for turbidity, whereas the Honokōwai and Ka‘opala sites ranked highest for sediment loading. Chronic and episodic terrestrial sediment stress has resulted in coral reef community demise, clearly illustrated at the Honolua, Honokahua, and Ka‘opala sites, where coral benthic cover and colony abundances ranked the lowest and levels of turf algae ranked among the highest. Left unattended, land-based pollution impacts will continue to negatively affect the coral reef communities of West Maui. And, under the current turbidity and sediment loading conditions, the coral-rich habitats in the Wahikuli and Honōkowai Watersheds are probably at greatest risk, given they harbor the most prominent and well-developed reefs in the region, characterized by the highest coral cover, colony densities, and structural complexity.

Hawaii

Integration of coral reef ecosystem process studies and remote sensing

Worldwide, local-scale anthropogenic stress combined with global climate change is driving shifts in the state of reef benthic communities from coral-rich to micro- or macroalgal-dominated (Knowlton, 1992; Done, 1999). Such phase shifts in reef benthic communities may be either abrupt or gradual, and case studies from diverse ocean basins demonstrate that recovery, while uncertain (Hughes, 1994), typically involves progression through successional stages (Done, 1992). These transitions in benthic community structure involve changes in community metabolism, and accordingly, the holistic evaluation of associated biogeochemical variables is of great intrinsic value (Done, 1992). Effective reef management requires advance prediction of coral reef alteration in the face of anthropogenic stress and change in the global environment (Hatcher, 1997a). In practice, this goal requires techniques that can rapidly discern, at an early stage, sublethal effects that may cause long-term increases in mortality (brown, 1988; Grigg and Dollar, 1990). Such methods would improve our understanding of the differences in the population, community, and ecosystem structure, as well as function, between pristine and degraded reefs. This knowledge base could then support scientifically based management strategies (Done, 1992). Brown (1988) noted the general lack of rigor in the assessment of stress on coral reefs and suggested that more quantitative approaches than currently exist are needed to allow objective understanding of coral reef dynamics. Sensitive techniques for the timely appraisal of pollution effects or generalized endemic stress in coral reefs are sorely lacking (Grigg and Dollar, 1990; Wilkinsin, 1992). Moreover, monitoring methods based on population inventories, sclerochronology, or reproductive biology tend to myopic and may give inconsistent results. Ideally, an improved means of evaluating reef stress would discriminate mortality due to natural causes from morality to anthropogenic causes (Brown, 1988). Models of coral reef ecosystems, parameterized by process measurements and scaled in time-space using remote sensing, have the potential to address pressing research questions that are central to devising valid management strategies (Grigg el al., 1984; Hatcher, 1997b). To attain this goal, ecosystem-level models that integrate studies of physical and chemical forcing with observed biological and geological responses are required. This interdisciplinary approach to understanding reef biogeochemical dynamics can allow investigations that integrate the scales of time and space (Hatcher, 1997a), thereby enabling prediction of coral reef change (Andréfouët and Payri, 2001). In turn, prediction of holistic ecosystem function within various environmental focusing scenarios has substantial promise in mitigating future disturbance. Indeed, management of coral reefs at the ecosystem level has been suggested as the only meaningful approach to preserving coral reefs (Bohnsack and Ault, 1996; Christensen et al., 1996).

Florida

Rigorously valuing the role of coral reefs in coastal protection: An example from Maui, Hawaii, U.S.A.

The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by exposing communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous, economic terms as artificial defenses such as seawalls, and therefore often not considered in decision-making. Here we present a new methodology that combines economic, ecological, and engineering tools to provide a rigorous financial valuation of the coastal protection benefits of coral reefs off Maui, Hawaii, USA. We follow risk-based valuation guidelines to quantitatively estimate the risk reduction benefits from coral reefs in terms of annual expected benefits in economic terms. Our ultimate goal is to identify how, where, and when coral reefs provide the most flood reduction benefits under current and future climates to inform reef conservation and management priorities.

Hawaii

Shifting sands: The influence of coral reefs on shoreline erosion from short-term storm protection to long-term disequilibrium

Climate change is exacerbating shoreline erosion and flooding, posing significant risks to coastal communities. Although traditional coastal defenses such as seawalls, dykes, and breakwaters offer protection from these hazards, their high environmental and economic costs are driving interest in cost-competitive nature-based solutions. Coral reef restoration is a nature-based solution that may be particularly apt to mitigate tropical coastal flooding and shoreline erosion while providing benefits to local tourism, fisheries, and nature. However, the novelty of this field requires studies demonstrating the benefits of reefs for coastal protection. While the flood protection benefits of reefs have been well-documented, their effects on shoreline erosion are comparatively less understood. Here, we investigate the effects of coral reefs on shoreline erosion by comparing tropical beach responses at short and long timescales, as well as identifying important reef structural features influencing coastal erosion rates. Our analyses leveraged two key datasets created in this study: the first derived from a literature review on short-term shoreline erosion due to storm events, and another compiling >80 years of long-term erosion rates, bathymetry, habitat, and wave energy for the Hawaiian Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, and Maui. Our analyses reveal three key findings regarding the effects of reefs on shoreline erosion. Firstly, we find evidence for the role of reefs in mitigating shoreline erosion during storm events, with coral reef-protected beaches experiencing 97 % less beach volume loss than unprotected beaches. Secondly, a linear regression analysis demonstrates that coral reef structure and wave energy are important predictors of long-term shoreline erosion rates, explaining 34 % of the variation across the Hawaiian Islands. Consistent with prior research, we find beaches protected by coral reefs with shallow reef crests, wide reef flats, calmer offshore conditions, and positioned farther from the shore exhibit lower erosion rates than others. Finally, when comparing historical erosion rates of protected and unprotected beaches in Hawai'i, we find a seemingly incongruous pattern where coral reef-protected beaches eroded up to 2x faster than beaches without reefs. While the cause of the enhanced erosion is yet to be fully understood, a combination of coral reef structural degradation and sea-level rise is likely shifting the equilibrium profiles of reef-protected beaches inshore. These results emphasize the role of coral reefs in reducing coastal erosion during storm events while revealing contrasting erosion patterns over long timescales. Future studies would ideally broaden the scope to include various regions, utilize advanced sediment transport models, and undertake field experiments to deepen our understanding of coral reef-coupled shoreline dynamics.

Nature-Based Solutions

Multi-scale remote sensing of coral reefs

In this chapter we present how both direct and indirect remote sensing can be integrated to address two major coral reef applications - coral bleaching and assessment of biodiversity. This approach reflects the current non-linear integration of remote sensing for environmental assessment of coral reefs, resulting from a rapid increase in available sensors, processing methods and interdisciplinary collaborations (Andréfouët and Riegl, 2004). Moreover, this approach has greatly benefited from recent collaborations of once independent investigations (e.g., benthic ecology, remote sensing, and numerical modeling).

Florida

Tropical and subtropical coral reefs

Global declines in coral cover persist, owing to increasing ocean temperatures associated with climate change, continued coastal development, pollution, sedimentation, diseases and the destruction and overextraction of marine resources (through fishing and coral harvesting). These stressors have an impact on coral biodiversity, reef-associated fauna and the architectural complexity of reef frameworks, compromising the food security and livelihoods of the millions of people who depend on these ecosystems (virtually certain, well established). The frequency and severity of disturbances caused by heatwaves, disease outbreaks and tropical storms have increased (virtually certain, established but incomplete), curtailing the recovery time between such disturbances. This pattern is projected to continue on its current trajectory (at best) or accelerate (very likely). The ecosystem services provided by coral reefs are substantial, not only in terms of biodiversity, but also in terms of direct economic benefits (including coastal protection, livelihoods for millions and nurseries for commercial species), as well as less tangible benefits, such as cultural and aesthetic (intrinsic) value (virtually certain, well established). Conservation, restoration and regeneration efforts are under way on a global scale, but few initiatives are implemented on a long-term, sustainable basis, with socioeconomic considerations, such as livelihoods, taken into account (virtually certain, well established). A wide range of approaches and tools is being developed, many of which are designed to mitigate or halt reef declines. These are often restricted to local reef-wide projects, however, and the potential for upscaling is sometimes criticized (unresolved). Documented results are also almost always undermined by a clear disconnect between these and other policy decisions, such as the extraction and burning of fossil fuels and coastal development (likely). Regardless of scalability concerns, all programmes need to be embedded within a broader evidence-based conservation framework. Global efforts are required to facilitate reef ecosystem survival and continued function by reducing emissions and ongoing climate change (virtually certain, established but incomplete). The reefs of today will not be the reefs of tomorrow (virtually certain) and shifting baselines need to be considered when setting objectives with respect to conservation, restoration and regeneration (virtually certain, established but incomplete).

Report

Action plan for restoration of coral reef coastal protection services: Case study example and workbook

This report was prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Office of Research and Development, as part of the Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) research program, with support from Tetra Tech, Inc., and in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and The Nature Conservancy. The ACE research program provides scientific information and tools to support USEPA’s commitment to clean air, clean water and sustainable natural resources, even as environmental conditions change. A key component of this is the development of sound science to support adaptation. Adaptation involves preparing for and adjusting to the effects of climate change and its interactions with other global and local stressors. Because these effects are diverse, interactive, and difficult to predict, adapting management of natural resources in this context can be very challenging. Coral reefs—which provide valued ecosystem services such as fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism—are threatened by the effects of increased sea surface temperatures, sea level rise, and intensifying storms. These large-scale stressors are interacting with local stressors such as pollution, overfishing, and recreational misuse to drive ongoing and accelerating declines in coral reef ecosystems. Thus, there is a rising urgency to design and implement climate change adaptation measures that will enable reef resilience in the face of these changes. This includes accounting for, and adjusting to, the combined effects of climate change and local stressors in coral reef protection and restoration efforts. The action plan, example case study, and workbook found in this report demonstrate a structured process for integrating climate-smart design considerations into restoration planning using A Manager’s Guide to Coral Reef Restoration Planning and Design. The focus is a hypothetical coral reef restoration project that has a goal of recovering nature-based coastal protection services using restoration interventions. The intent is to provide readers with a completed example of how to use the Guide workbook to inform a draft action plan, centering on the topic of coastal protection as a burgeoning area of interest in coral reef science and management communities. The information in this hypothetical case study is not intended for direct use; rather, it provides a starting point for more detailed planning that would occur in specific places. And while a full review of the current literature on reef restoration methods is outside the scope of this report, readers are encouraged to use the examples herein as well as in the Guide as a jumping-off point for exploring the rapidly growing body of information on methods, techniques, successes, failures, monitoring challenges and future directions of coral reef restoration in a changing world. The workbook, together with the action plan, can serve as a valuable record of the planning thought process as well as a living document for adaptive management, to be updated through time as improved information becomes available.

EPA Report

Fluorescence-based classification of Caribbean coral reef organisms and substrates

A diverse group of coral reef organisms, representing several phyla, possess fluorescent pigments. We investigated the potential of using the characteristic fluorescence emission spectra of these pigments to enable unsupervised, optical classification of coral reef habitats. We compiled a library of characteristic fluorescence spectra through in situ and laboratory measurements from a variety of specimens throughout the Caribbean. Because fluorescent pigments are not species-specific, the spectral library is organized in terms of 15 functional groups. We investigated the spectral separability of the functional groups in terms of the number of wavebands required to distinguish between them, using the similarity measures Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), Spectral Information Divergence (SID), SID-SAM mixed measure, and Mahalanobis distance. This set of measures represents geometric, stochastic, joint geometric-stochastic, and statistical approaches to classifying spectra. Our hyperspectral fluorescence data were used to generate sets of 4-, 6-, and 8-waveband spectra, including random variations in relative signal amplitude, spectral peak shifts, and water-column attenuation. Each set consisted of 2 different band definitions: ‘optimally-picked’ and ‘evenly-spaced.’ The optimally-picked wavebands were chosen to coincide with as many peaks as possible in the functional group spectra. Reference libraries were formed from half of the spectra in each set and used for training purposes. Average classification accuracies ranged from 76.3% for SAM with 4 evenly-spaced wavebands to 93.8% for Mahalanobis distance with 8 evenly-spaced wavebands. The Mahalanobis distance consistently outperformed the other measures. In a second test, empirically-measured spectra were classified using the same reference libraries and the Mahalanobis distance for just the 8 evenly-spaced waveband case. Average classification accuracies were 84% and 87%, corresponding to the extremes in modeled water-column attenuation. The classification results from both tests indicate that a high degree of separability among the 15 fluorescent-spectra functional groups is possible using only a modest number of spectral bands.

PLoS ONE

Hurricanes, coral reefs and rainforests: resistance, ruin and recovery in the Caribbean

The coexistence of hurricanes, coral reefs, and rainforests in the Caribbean demonstrates that highly structured ecosystems with great diversity can flourish in spite of recurring exposure to intense destructive energy. Coral reefs develop in response to wave energy and resist hurricanes largely by virtue of their structural strength. Limited fetch also protects some reefs from fully developed hurricane waves. While storms may produce dramatic local reef damage, they appear to have little impact on the ability of coral reefs to provide food or habitat for fish and other animals. Rainforests experience an enormous increase in wind energy during hurricanes with dramatic structural changes in the vegetation. The resulting changes in forest microclimate are larger than those on reefs and the loss of fruit, leaves, cover, and microclimate has a great impact on animal populations. Recovery of many aspects of rainforest structure and function is rapid, though there may be long-term changes in species composition. While resistance and repair have maintained reefs and rainforests in the past, human impacts may threaten their ability to survive.

Ambio

Coral reef evolution on rapidly subsiding margins

A series of well-developed submerged coral reefs are preserved in the Huon Gulf (Papua New Guinea) and around Hawaii. Despite different tectonics settings, both regions have experienced rapid subsidence (2-6??m/ka) over the last 500??ka. Rapid subsidence, combined with eustatic sea-level changes, is responsible for repeated drowning and backstepping of coral reefs over this period. Because we can place quantitative constraints on these systems (i.e., reef drowning age, eustatic sea-level changes, subsidence rates, accretion rates, basement substrates, and paleobathymetry), these areas represent unique natural laboratories for exploring the roles of tectonics, reef accretion, and eustatic sea-level changes in controlling the evolution of individual reefs, as well as backstepping of the entire system. A review of new and existing bathymetric, radiometric, sedimentary facies and numerical modeling data indicate that these reefs have had long, complex growth histories and that they are highly sensitive, recording drowning not only during major deglaciations, but also during high-frequency, small-amplitude interstadial and deglacial meltwater pulse events. Analysis of five generalized sedimentary facies shows that reef drowning is characterized by a distinct biological and sedimentary sequence. Observational and numerical modeling data indicate that on precessional (20??ka) and sub-orbital timescales, the rate and amplitude of eustatic sea-level changes are critical in controlling initiation, growth, drowning or sub-aerial exposure, subsequent re-initiation, and final drowning. However, over longer timescales (> 100-500??ka) continued tectonic subsidence and basement substrate morphology influence broad scale reef morphology and backstepping geometries. Drilling of these reefs will yield greatly expanded stratigraphic sections compared with similar reefs on slowly subsiding, stable and uplifting margins, and thus they represent a unique archive of sea-level and climate changes, as well as a record of the response of coral reefs to these changes over the last six glacial cycles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change

Foraminifera as bioindicators in coral reef assessment and monitoring: The foram index

Coral reef communities are threatened worldwide. Resource managers urgently need indicators of the biological condition of reef environments that can relate data acquired through remote-sensing, water-quality and benthic-community monitoring to stress responses in reef organisms. The "FORAM" (Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring) Index (FI) is based on 30 years of research on reef sediments and reef-dwelling larger foraminifers. These shelled protists are ideal indicator organisms because: ??? Foraminifers are widely used as environmental and paleoenvironmental indicators in many contexts; ??? Reef-building, zooxanthellate corals and foraminifers with algal symbionts have similar water-quality requirements; ??? The relatively short life spans of foraminifers as compared with long-lived colonial corals facilitate differentiation between long-term water-quality decline and episodic stress events; ??? Foraminifers are relatively small and abundant, permitting statistically significant sample sizes to be collected quickly and relatively inexpensively, ideally as a component of comprehensive monitoring programs; and ??? Collection of foraminifers has minimal impact on reef resources. USEPA guidelines for ecological indicators are used to evaluate the FI. Data required are foraminiferal assemblages from surface sediments of reef-associated environments. The FI provides resource managers with a simple procedure for determining the suitability of benthic environments for communities dominated by algal symbiotic organisms. The FI can be applied independently, or incorporated into existing or planned monitoring efforts. The simple calculations require limited computer capabilities and therefore can be applied readily to reef-associated environments worldwide. In addition, the foraminiferal shells collected can be subjected to morphometric and geochemical analyses in areas of suspected heavy-metal pollution, and the data sets for the index can be used with other monitoring data in detailed multidimensional assessments.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Crustal subsidence rate off Hawaii determined from 234U/238U ages of drowned coral reefs

A series of submerged coral reefs off northwestern Hawaii was formed during (largely glacial) intervals when the rate of local sea-level rise was less than the maximum upward growth rate of the reefs. Mass-spectrometric 234 U/ 238 U ages for samples from six such reefs range from 17 to 475 ka and indicate that this part of the Hawaiian Ridge has been subsiding at a roughly uniform rate of 2.6 mm/yr for the past 475 ka. The 234 U/ 238 U ages are in general agreement with model ages of reef drowning (based on estimates of paleo-sea-level stands derived from oxygen-isotope ratios of deep-sea sediments), but there are disagreements in detail. The high attainable precision (±10 ka or better on samples younger than ∼800 ka), large applicable age range, relative robustness against open-system behavior, and ease of analysis for this technique hold great promise for future applications of dating of 50-1000 ka coral.

Hawaii

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [C OMBO (“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. C OMBO calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running C OMBO under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.

Climatic Change