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At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
USGS2010

A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems

To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need an improvedunderstanding of how tidal marsh ecosystem services will respond to sea-level rise and increased nitrogen (N) loading to coastal areas. Here we review existing literature to better understand how these interacting perturbations s will likely impact N removal by tidal marshes. We propose that the keyy factors controlling long-term changes in N removal are plant-community changes, soil accretion rates, surface-subsurface flow paths, marsh geomorphology microbial communities, and substrates for microbial reactions. Feedbacks affecting relative elevations and sediment accretion ratess will serve as dominant controls on future N removal throughout the marsh. Given marsh persistence, we hypothesize that the processes dominating N removal will vary laterally across the marsh and longitudinallyalong the estuarine gradient. In salt marsh interiors, where nitrate reduction rates are often limited by delivery of nitrate to bacterial communities, reductions in groundwater discharge due to sea level rise may trigger a net reduction in N removal. In freshwater marshes, we expect a decreasee in N removal efficiency due to increased sulfide concentrations. Sulfide encroachment will increase the relative importance of dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium and lead to greater bacterial nitrogen immobilization, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem that retains more N and is less effective at permanent N removal from the watershed. In contrast, we predict that sealevel–driven expansion of the tidal creek network and the degree of surface-subsurface exchange flux through tidal creek banks will result in greater N-removal efficiency from these locations.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Chandeleur Islands to Breton Island bathymetric and topographic datasets and operational sediment budget development: Methodology and analysis report

This study is part of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) program. The goal of the BICM program is to provide long-term data on the barrier islands of Louisiana for monitoring change and assisting in coastal management. The BICM program uses historical data and acquires new data to map and monitor shoreline position, sediment properties, topography, bathymetry, and habitat. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has collected geophysical and sedimentologic data across the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) through the BICM program and collaborative USGS projects such as the Barrier Island Evolution Research project (under CPRA contract number 2000339324, BICM2–Chandeleurs TopoBathy DEM), which builds upon the previous BICM physical assessment of the BNWR outlined in a separate report. This project uses topographic and bathymetric data from three periods (1917–1922, 2006–2007, and 2013–2015) to develop digital elevation models (DEMs), measure elevation change, and calculate sediment budgets for the barrier island system. The sediment budget analysis, derived from the volumetric change between the three periods, is necessary for understanding sediment transport dynamics along barrier islands and providing information for effective coastal management. This report describes the methods used to acquire, process, and produce these products.

Louisiana↗
USGS2015

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Maryland and Virginia↗
USGS2023

The evolution of natural and developed barriers under accelerating sea levels

Communities residing on barrier islands depend upon the ability of barriers to withstand forcings such as waves, sea-level rise, and storms, particularly under stresses from climate change. Using a barrier island evolution model, we compare barrier response to linear versus accelerating sea-level rise. Results suggest that barriers are more likely to drown under accelerating rather than linear sea-level rise. The dominant style of barrier drowning also shifts from width drowning to height drowning. When our model of barrier evolution is coupled with a myopic economic decision-making model for beach nourishment and managed retreat, the general coastal management behavior is unchanged. However, the timing and position at which interventions are made differ. Therefore, decisions based on the assumption of constant sea-level rise rates rather than increasing rates may result in actions that are detrimental to communities and potentially reduce the barrier’s ability to maintain its subaerial landform.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

Washington↗
USGS2023

Using geospatial analysis to guide marsh restoration in Chesapeake Bay and beyond

Coastal managers are facing imminent decisions regarding the fate of coastal wetlands, given ongoing threats to their persistence. There is a need for objective methods to identify which wetland parcels are candidates for restoration, monitoring, protection, or acquisition due to limited resources and restoration techniques. Here, we describe a new spatially comprehensive data set for Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, which includes the unvegetated-vegetated marsh ratio, elevation metrics, and sediment-based lifespan. Spatial aggregation across regions of the Bay shows a trend of increasing deterioration with proximity to the seaward boundary, coherent with conceptual models of coastal landscape response to sea-level rise. On a smaller scale, the signature of deterioration is highly variable within subsections of the Bay: fringing, peninsular, and tidal river marsh complexes each exhibit different spatial patterns with regards to proximity to the seaward edge. We then demonstrate objective methods to use these data for mapping potential management options on to the landscape, and then provide methods to estimate lifespan and potential changes in lifespan in response to restoration actions as well as future sea level rise. We account for actions that aim to increase sediment inventories, revegetate barren areas, restore hydrology, and facilitate salt marsh migration into upland areas. The distillation of robust geospatial data into simple decision-making metrics, as well as the use of those metrics to map decisions on the landscape, represents an important step towards science-based coastal management.

Chesapeake Bay area↗
USGS2013

Massachusetts shoreline change project: a GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the 2013 update

Identifying the rates and trends associated with the position of the shoreline through time presents vital information on potential impacts these changes may have on coastal populations and infrastructure, and supports informed coastal management decisions. This report publishes the historical shoreline data used to assess the scale and timing of erosion and accretion along the Massachusetts coast from New Hampshire to Rhode Island including all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket and the Elizabeth Islands. This data is an update to the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Shoreline Change Project. Shoreline positions from the past 164 years (1845 to 2009) were used to compute the shoreline change rates. These data include a combined length of 1,804 kilometers of new shoreline data derived from color orthophoto imagery collected in 2008 and 2009, and topographic lidar collected in 2007. These new shorelines have been added to previously published historic shoreline data from the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and the U.S. Geological Survey. A detailed report containing a discussion of the shoreline change data presented here and a summary of the resulting rates is available and cited at the end of the Introduction section of this report.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2018

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗
USGS2018

Assessing and communicating the impacts of climate change on the Southern California coast

Over the course of this and the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal erosion will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we currently know them. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies for projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need user-friendly planning tools based on the best available climate and coastal science. In anticipation of these climate change impacts, many communities are in the early stages of climate change adaptation planning but lack the scientific information and tools to adequately address the potential impacts. In collaboration with leading scientists worldwide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections and translate that information using sophisticated physical process models into planning-scale physical, ecological, and economic exposure, shoreline change, and impact assessments, all delivered in two simple, user-friendly, online tools. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, over 250,000 residents and nearly $40 billion in building value across Southern California could be exposed to coastal flooding from storms, sea level rise, and coastal change. Results for the other major population center in California (the greater San Francisco Bay Area) are also available but not explicitly discussed in this report. Together, CoSMoS has now assessed the exposure of 95% of the 26 million coastal residents of the State (17 million in Southern California).

California↗
USGS2023

Mapping methane reduction potential of tidal wetland restoration in the United States

Coastal wetlands can emit excess methane in cases where they are impounded and artificially freshened by structures that impede tidal exchange. We provide a new assessment of coastal methane reduction opportunities for the contiguous United States by combining multiple publicly available map layers, reassessing greenhouse gas emissions datasets, and applying scenarios informed by geospatial information system and by surveys of coastal managers. Independent accuracy assessment indicates that coastal impoundments are under-mapped at the national level by a factor of one-half. Restorations of freshwater-impounded wetlands to brackish or saline conditions have the greatest potential climate benefit of all mapped conversion opportunities, but were rarer than other potential conversion events. At the national scale we estimate potential emissions reduction for coastal wetlands to be 0.91 Teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalents year −1 , a more conservative assessment compared to previous estimates. We provide a map of 1,796 parcels with the potential for tidal re-connection.

Communications Earth & Environment↗
USGS2022

Chenier Plain region bathymetric and topographic datasets: Methodology report

The goal of the Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) program is to provide long-term data on coastal Louisiana for monitoring change and assisting in coastal management. This study (carried out under Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority contract number 2000339324, BICM2—Chenier TopoBathy DEM) builds upon the previous BICM physical assessment of the Chenier Plain region using bathymetric data from three periods (1930, 2007, and 2017) to develop digital elevation models for historical and current periods. In addition to bathymetric datasets, the study includes light detection and ranging elevation measurements along the coastline to produce elevation datasets for the 2007 and 2017 periods. This report describes the methods used to acquire, process, and produce these products.

Louisiana↗
USGS2013

Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion on coastal populations and infrastructure and can support informed coastal management decisions. In this report, we summarize the changes in the historical positions of the shoreline of the Massachusetts coast for the 165 years from 1844 through 2009. The study area includes the Massachusetts coastal region from Salisbury to Westport, including Cape Cod, as well as Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and the Elizabeth Islands. New statewide shoreline data were developed for approximately 1,804 kilometers (1,121 miles) of shoreline using color aerial orthoimagery from 2008 and 2009 and topographic lidar from 2007. The shoreline data were integrated with existing historical shoreline data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to compute long- (about 150 years) and short-term (about 30 years) rates of shoreline change. A linear regression method was used to calculate long- and short-term rates of shoreline change at 26,510 transects along the Massachusetts coast. In locations where shoreline data were insufficient to use the linear regression method, short-term rates were calculated using an end-point method. Long-term rates of shoreline change are calculated with (LTw) and without (LTwo) shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 to examine the effect of removing these data on measured rates of change. Regionally averaged rates are used to assess the general characteristics of the two-rate computations, and we find that (1) the rates of change for both LTw and LTwo are essentially the same; (2) including more data slightly reduces the uncertainty of the rate, which is expected as the number of shorelines increases; and (3) the data for the shorelines from the 1970s and 1994 are not outliers with respect to the long-term trend. These findings are true for regional averages, but may not hold at specific transects.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2009

The emerging role of lidar remote sensing in coastal research and resource management

Knowledge of coastal elevation is an essential requirement for resource management and scientific research. Recognizing the vast potential of lidar remote sensing in coastal studies, this Special Issue includes a collection of articles intended to represent the state-of-the-art for lidar investigations of nearshore submerged and emergent ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, and hazards due to sea-level rise and severe storms. Some current applications for lidar remote sensing described in this Special Issue include bluegreen wavelength lidar used for submarine coastal benthic environments such as coral reef ecosystems, airborne lidar used for shoreline mapping and coastal change detection, and temporal waveform-resolving lidar used for vegetation mapping.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2018

Factors affecting disaster preparedness, response, and recovery using the community capitals framework

Disaster research often focuses on how and why communities are affected by a discrete extreme event. We used the community capitals framework to understand how community characteristics influence their preparedness, response to, and recovery from successive or multiple disasters using the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake and the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill as case studies. This study assesses community response to these disasters by reviewing published literature on impacts to create profiles for six communities and by identifying community capitals before and during these disasters, and throughout the long-term recovery. While the presence of rich natural capitals commonly contributed resources to pre-disaster planning and long-term recovery, restriction of resource access immediately following the disasters was detrimental to many communities. Communities with strong political, social, and financial capitals tended to fare better immediately following disasters, enabling longer-term processes of transformation or recovery. However, in some communities the oil spill undermined these capitals more than the earthquake and resulting tsunami. In understanding how use and reliance on community capitals can lead to varied recovery success from different kinds of disasters, these findings can help coastal managers and planners prepare for future disasters.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

Louisiana↗
USGS1986

Waterfowl and wetlands management in the coastal zone of the Atlantic Flyway: Meeting and summary comments

A conference on waterfowl and wetlands along the Atlantic coast of North America was held in Wilmington, Delaware in September 1986. Discussions centered around coastal impoundments and Open Marsh Water Management as methods of mosquito control and waterfowl enhancement. Single purpose management of coastal marshes, whether for mosquito control or waterfowl, may not be the most beneficial approach. Where management options are available, the management for habitat heterogeneity may be indicated.

Colonial Waterbirds↗