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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS1983

Water quality of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River system, North Carolina— Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

Interpretation of water quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and the North Carolina Department of Natural Resources and Community Development, for the Yadkin-Pee Dee River system, has identified water quality variations, characterized the current condition of the river in reference to water quality standards, estimated the degree of pollution caused by man, and evaluated long-term trends in concentrations of major dissolved constituents. Three stations, Yadkin River at Yadkin College (02116500), Rocky River near Norwood (02126000), and Pee Dee River near Rockingham (02129000) have been sampled over different periods of time beginning in 1906. Overall, the ambient water quality of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River system is satisfactory for most water uses. Iron and manganese concentrations are often above desirable levels, but they are not unusually high in comparison to other North Carolina streams. Lead concentrations also periodically rise above the recommended criterion for domestic water use. Mercury concentrations frequently exceed, and pH levels fall below, the recommended criteria for protection of aquatic life. Dissolved oxygen levels, while generally good, are lowest at the Pee Dee near Rockingham, due to the station 's location not far downstream from a lake. Suspended sediment is the most significant water quality problem of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River. The major cation in the river is sodium and the major anions are bicarbonate and carbonate. Eutrophication is currently a problem in the Yadkin-Pee Dee, particularly in High Rock Lake. An estimated nutrient and sediment balance of the system indicates that lakes along the Yadkin-Pee Dee River serve as a sink for sediment, ammonia, and phosphorus. Pollution makes up approximately 59% of the total dissolved solids load of the Yadkin River at Yadkin College, 43% for the Rocky River near Norwood, and 29% for the Pee Dee River near Rockingham. Statistically significant trends show a pattern of increasing concentration of most dissolved constituents over time, with a leveling off and decline in the middle to late 1970's.

North Carolina↗

USGS2018

A 42 year inference of cloud base height trends in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico

The Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico are home to the only tropical rainforest managed by the United States Forest Service, with cloud-immersed forests historically occupying the highest elevations. However, within the past 50 yr, studies of the Luquillo cloud forest have suggested an increase in cloud base heights (CBH), although the CBH in the area was not quantified until recently. The present work uses radiosonde observations from nearby San Juan, Puerto Rico, to contextualize the present-day CBH within a 42 yr (1975−2016) proxy record and determine evidence for rising cloud base. Two key questions are addressed: (1) Can theoretical CBH calculations from San Juan provide a reasonable proxy for CBHs in the Luquillo Mountains? (2) Does a significant trend accompany the CBH lifting inferred from recent work in the region? The mean-layer lifted condensation level (MLLCL), a thermodynamic parameter expressing the altitude at which a rising air parcel reaches 100% relative humidity, serves as the proxy. The 42 yr MLLCL time series corroborates both the low CBHs claimed in the 1980s and the higher CBHs documented by recent work. When considering all available radiosonde data, statistically significant increasing CBH trends are detected for all seasons. However, when the record is standardized to correct for progressive vertical resolution improvements to radiosonde observations, recent CBH increases are more modest than initially indicated, and statistically significant increases are only apparent in the late rainfall season.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2013

Modeled distribution and abundance of a pelagic seabird reveal trends in relation to fisheries

The northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis is one of the most visible and widespread seabirds in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. However, relatively little is known about its abundance, trends, or the factors that shape its distribution. We used a long-term pelagic dataset to model changes in fulmar at-sea distribution and abundance since the mid-1970s. We used an ensemble model, based on a weighted average of generalized additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest models to estimate the pelagic distribution and density of fulmars in the waters of the Aleutian Archipelago and Bering Sea. The most important predictor variables were colony effect, sea surface temperature, distribution of fisheries, location, and primary productivity. We calculated a time series from the ratio of observed to predicted values and found that fulmar at-sea abundance declined from the 1970s to the 2000s at a rate of 0.83% (± 0.39% SE) per annum. Interpolating fulmar densities on a spatial grid through time, we found that the center of fulmar distribution in the Bering Sea has shifted north, coinciding with a northward shift in fish catches and a warming ocean. Our study shows that fisheries are an important, but not the only factor, shaping fulmar distribution and abundance trends in the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2020

Identifying Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration Trends in West Africa to Support Drought Insurance

West Africa represents a wide gradient of climates, extending from tropical conditions along the Guinea Coast to the dry deserts of the south Sahara, and it has some of the lowest income, most vulnerable populations on the planet, which increases catastrophic impacts of low and high frequency climate variability. This paper investigates low and high frequency climate variability in West African monthly and seasonal precipitation and reference evapotranspiration from the early 1980s to 2016. We examine the impact of those trends and how they interact with payouts from index insurance products. Understanding low and high frequency variability in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration at these scales can provide insight into trends during periods critical to agricultural performance across the region. For index insurance, it is important to identify low-frequency variability, which can result in radical departures between designed/planned and actual insurance payouts, especially in the later part of a 30-year period, a common climate analysis period. We find that evaporative demand and precipitation are not perfect substitutes for monitoring crop deficits and that there may be space to use both for index insurance design. We also show that low yields—aligned with the need for insurance payouts—can be predicted using classification trees that include both precipitation and reference evapotranspiration.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2017

Landsat-based trend analysis of lake dynamics across northern permafrost regions

Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here we present, a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM,ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e. upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2020

Comparing trends in modeled and observed streamflows at minimally altered basins in the United States

We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984–2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a measure of overall model fit and average bias. A higher percentage of basins, for all models, had relatively low trend differences between modeled and observed mean/ median flows than for very high or low flows such as the annual 1-day high and 7-day low flows. Mean-flow metrics also had the largest percentage of basins with relatively good overall model fit and low bias. The five statistical transfer models performed better at more basins than the process-based model. The overall model fit for all models, for mean and/or high flows, was correlated with one or more measures of basin precipitation or aridity. Our study and previous studies generally observed good model performance for high flows up to 90th or 95th percentile flows. However, we found model performance was substantially worse for more extreme flows, including 99th percentile and annual 1-day high flows; this shows the importance of including more extreme high flows in analyses of model performance.

Water↗

USGS2022

A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is a critical water resource in the southwestern United States, supplying drinking water for 40 million people in the region and water for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares of land. Extended drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) and the prospect of a warmer climate in the future pose water availability challenges for those charged with managing the river. Limited water availability in the future also may negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and wildlife that depend upon them. Water availability components of special importance in the UCOL include streamflow, salinity in groundwater and surface water, groundwater levels and storage, and the role of snow in the UCOL water cycle. This manuscript provides a review of current “state of the science” for these UCOL water availability components with a focus on identifying gaps in data, modeling, and trends in the basin. Trends provide context for evaluations of current conditions and motivation for further investigation and modeling, models allow for investigation of processes and projections of future water availability, and data support both efforts. Information summarized in this manuscript will be valuable in planning integrated assessments of water availability in the UCOL.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Trends in nonindigenous aquatic species richness in the United States reveal shifting spatial and temporal patterns of species introductions

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics underlying the introduction and spread of nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) can provide important insights into the historical drivers of biological invasions and aid in forecasting future patterns of nonindigenous species arrival and spread. Increasingly, public databases of species observation records are being used to quantify changes in NAS distributions across space and time, and are becoming an important resource for researchers, managers, and policy-makers. Here we use publicly available data to describe trends in NAS introduction and spread across the conterminous United States over more than two centuries of observation records. Available data on first records of NAS reveal significant shifts in dominance of particular introduction patterns over time, both in terms of recipient regions and likely sources. These spatiotemporal trends at the continental scale may be subject to biases associated with regional variation in sampling effort, reporting, and data curation. We therefore also examined two additional metrics, the number of individual records and the spatial coverage of those records, which are likely to be more closely associated with sampling effort. Our results suggest that broad-scale patterns may mask considerable variation across regions, time periods, and even entities contributing to NAS sampling. In some cases, observed temporal shifts in species discovery may be influenced by dramatic fluctuations in the number and spatial extent of individual observations, reflecting the possibility that shifts in sampling effort may obscure underlying rates of NAS introduction.

Aquatic Invasions↗

USGS2024

Divergent trends in distribution and abundance of landbirds in low and high elevation habitats of the Kaʻū Rainforest

Federal, state, and non-governmental partners resurveyed landbirds in the Kaʻū Rainforest on the Island of Hawai‘i in 2019. Point-transect distance sampling was conducted in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, Kaʻū Forest Reserve, Kapāpala Forest Reserve, and Kapāpala Cooperative Game Management Area. This is the first comprehensive survey of the region since 2008. Through a collaborative effort, monitoring transects were consolidated to provide a consistent, repeatable sampling frame for future surveys. We estimated landbird distribution, density, and abundance for eight surveys since 1976. Changes in species-specific densities were assessed using a log-linear regression to determine trends of the six most recent surveys since 2002. Trends were assessed in three strata: low elevation (<1,500 m), high elevation (≥1,500 m), and total survey area.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Monitoring the status and trends of the Shenandoah salamander in Shenandoah National Park

The Shenandoah salamander ( Plethodon shenandoah ) is a federally endangered salamander whose distribution is restricted to high-elevation habitats in Shenandoah National Park (SHEN). During the ranking of vital signs monitoring priorities for this park, “Federal Threatened and Endangered Species” received the 2nd highest ranking for terrestrial vital signs because of ecological, management, and policy criteria. The following protocol narrative describes the objectives and methods for monitoring the Shenandoah salamander. Because the range size and habitat occupancy are of principle interest, this protocol generates data suitable for estimating the annual proportion of occupied habitat across the species range. Objectives focus on describing the status and trends of the species distribution (i.e., spatial extent) and the proportion of the range that is occupied (i.e., density of occupied sites). To do so, monitoring sites in the core and the edge of the known range are surveyed for salamanders multiple times during both the spring and fall. The resulting data not only allow for an assessment of the status and trends of the species but also provide supporting data to assist in understanding causal drivers of population change. This monitoring protocol consists of a protocol narrative and eight standard operating procedures (SOPs) which are listed below in the Background and Objectives and are available as separate documents at irma.nps.gov.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2012

Recent population trends of mountain goats in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) were introduced in Washington's Olympic Mountains during the 1920s. The population subsequently increased in numbers and expanded in range, leading to concerns by the 1970s over the potential effects of non-native mountain goats on high-elevation plant communities in Olympic National Park. The National Park Service (NPS) transplanted mountain goats from the Olympic Mountains to other ranges between 1981 and 1989 as a means to manage overabundant populations, and began monitoring population trends of mountain goats in 1983. We estimated population abundance of mountain goats during 18–25 July 2011, the sixth survey of the time series, to assess current population status and responses of the population to past management. We surveyed 39 sample units, comprising 39% of the 59,615-ha survey area. We estimated a population of 344 ± 72 (90% confidence interval [CI]) mountain goats in the survey area. Retrospective analysis of the 2004 survey, accounting for differences in survey area boundaries and methods of estimating aerial detection biases, indicated that the population increased at an average annual rate of 4.9% since the last survey. That is the first population growth observed since the cessation of population control measures in 1990. We postulate that differences in population trends observed in western, eastern, and southern sections of the survey zone reflected, in part, a variable influence of climate change across the precipitation gradient in the Olympic Mountains.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s −1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s −1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

The effect of changing sea ice on wave climate trends along Alaska's central Beaufort Sea coast

Diminishing sea ice is impacting the wave field across the Arctic region. Recent observation- and model-based studies highlight the spatiotemporal influence of sea ice on offshore wave climatologies, but effects within the nearshore region are still poorly described. This study characterizes the wave climate in the central Beaufort Sea coast from 1979 to 2019 by utilizing a wave hindcast model that uses ERA5 winds, waves, and ice concentrations as input. The spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) is calibrated and validated based on more than 10 000 in situ time point measurements collected over a 13-year time period across the region, with friction variations and empirical coefficients for newly implemented empirical ice formulations for the open-water and shoulder seasons. Model results and trends are analyzed over the 41-year time period using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, including an estimate of Sen's slope. The model results show that the reduction in sea ice concentration correlates strongly with increases in average and extreme wave conditions. In particular, the open-water season extended by ∼96 d over the 41-year time period (∼2.4 d yr−1), resulting in a 5-fold increase in the yearly cumulative wave power. Moreover, the open-water season extends later into the year, resulting in relatively more open-water conditions during fall storms with high wind speeds. The later freeze-up results in an increase in the annual offshore median wave heights of 1 % yr−1 and an increase in the average number of rough wave days (defined as days when maximum wave heights exceed 2.5 m) from 1.5 in 1979 to 13.1 d in 2019. Trends in the nearshore areas deviate from the patterns offshore. Model results indicate a saturation limit for high wave heights in the shallow areas of Foggy Island Bay. Similar patterns are found for yearly cumulative wave power.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS1990

Wood duck population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been conducted yearly since 1966, and can be used to describe relative population density and trends of birds in North America north of Mexico. Wood ducks (Air sponsa) are difficult to survey using conventional waterfowl monitoring techniques, but a large portion of their range is surveyed by the BBS. Wood ducks are detected at low densities on many BBS routes, and population trends can be estimated for most regions. Populations have been increasing throughout North America since 1966, but statistically significant increases generally occurred only in the early (1966-78) part of the period. Roadside survey methodology used in the BBS has limitations that make it inefficient as a survey technique for wood ducks, and we recommend using modified methodologies that specifically survey wood duck habitat.

Book chapter↗

USGS1990

Northern bobwhite, gray partridge, and ring-necked pheasant population trends (1966-1988) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

We use North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population trends for 1966-1988 for northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), and gray partridge (Perdix perdix). Bobwhite populations have undergone widespread declines, pheasant have undergone major declines in eastern North America with mixed trends elsewhere, gray partridge have undergone primarily population increases. We present suggestions for further uses of these data.

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

Book chapter↗

USGS1983

Trends in organochlorine and mercury residues in common loon (Gavia immer) eggs from New Hampshire

Failed eggs collected from New Hampshire common loon (Gavia immer) nests in 1979 (N = 15) and 1981 (N = 21) were analyzed for organochlorines and mercury (Hg). In contrast to reports of previous samplings, DDT was not detected in any egg. PCB and DDE residues showed declining trends. Dieldrin was present at low levels in > 50% of the samples. Eggshell thickness was significantly correlated with DDE residues in the eggs of both sampling years; shell thickness is now (1981) comparable to that of museum specimens collected before 1946. Unlike organochlorine residues, Hg residues have shown no decrease in loon eggs. Percentage of loon eggs that contained > 0.5 ppm Hg increased between 1979 and 1981; 2 1981 eggs contained over 1.0 ppm Hg. Lead, zinc, cadmium, chromium and selenium also were analyzed in 1979, and residues were low and variable. Significance of these residue trends and other population factors for loons are discussed, and comparisons with residues of other loon populations in the United States and Canada are made.

Transactions of the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Co↗