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Water-Quality Conditions of Chester Creek, Anchorage, Alaska, 1998-2001

Between October 1998 and September 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program evaluated the water-quality conditions of Chester Creek, a stream draining forest and urban settings in Anchorage, Alaska. Data collection included water, streambed sediments, lakebed sediments, and aquatic organisms samples from urban sites along the stream. Urban land use ranged from less than 1 percent of the basin above the furthest upstream site to 46 percent above the most downstream site. Findings suggest that water quality of Chester Creek declines in the downstream direction and as urbanization in the watershed increases. Water samples were collected monthly and during storms at a site near the stream's mouth (Chester Creek at Arctic Boulevard) and analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Water samples collected during water year 1999 were analyzed for selected pesticides and volatile organic compounds. Concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria were determined monthly during calendar year 2000. During winter, spring, and summer, four water samples were collected at a site upstream of urban development (South Branch of South Fork Chester Creek at Tank Trail) and five from an intermediate site (South Branch of South Fork Chester Creek at Boniface Parkway). Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, sodium, chloride, and sulfate in water increased in the downstream direction. Nitrate concentrations were similar at the three sites and all were less than the drinking-water standard. About one-quarter of the samples from the Arctic Boulevard site had concentrations of phosphorus that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guideline for preventing nuisance plant growth. Water samples collected at the Arctic Boulevard site contained concentrations of the insecticide carbaryl that exceeded the guideline for protecting aquatic life. Every water sample revealed a low concentration of volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, methyl tert-butyl ether, and chloroform. No water samples contained volatile organic compounds concentrations that exceeded any USEPA drinking-water standard or guideline. Fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations in water from the Arctic Boulevard site commonly exceeded Federal and State guidelines for water-contact recreation. Concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in streambed sediments increased in the downstream direction. Some concentrations of arsenic, chromium, lead, and zinc in sediments were at levels that can adversely affect aquatic organisms. Analysis of sediment chemistry in successive lakebed-sediment layers from Westchester Lagoon near the stream's mouth provided a record of water-quality trends since about 1970. Concentrations of lead have decreased from peak levels in the mid-1970s, most likely because of removing lead from gasoline and lower lead content in other products. However, concen-trations in recently-deposited lakebed sediments are still about 10 times greater than measured in streambed sediments at the upstream Tank Trail site. Zinc concentrations in lakebed sediments also increased in the early 1970s to levels that exceeded guidelines to protect aquatic life and have remained at elevated but variable levels. Pyrene, benz[a]anthracene, and phenanthrene in lakebed sediments also have varied in concentrations and have exceeded protection guidelines for aquatic life since the 1970s. Concentrations of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), or their by-products generally were highest in lakebed sediments deposited in the 1970s. More recent sediments have concentrations that vary widely and do not show distinct temporal trends. Tissue samples of whole slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), a non-migratory species of fish, showed con-centrations of trace elements and organic contaminants. Of the constituents analyzed, only selenium concentra-tions showed levels of potential concern for

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Environmental chemical data for perishable sediments and soils collected in New Orleans, Louisiana, and along the Louisiana Delta following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2005

In October 2005, nearly one month after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, a team of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Missouri University of Science and Technology deployed to southern Louisiana to collect perishable environmental data resulting from the impacts of these storms. Perishable samples collected for this investigation are subject to destruction or ruin by removal, mixing, or natural decay; therefore, collection is time-critical following the depositional event. A total of 238 samples of sediment, soil, and vegetation were collected to characterize chemical quality. For this analysis, 157 of the 238 samples were used to characterize trace element, iron, total organic carbon, pesticide, and polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations of deposited sediment and associated shallow soils. In decreasing order, the largest variability in trace element concentration was detected for lead, vanadium, chromium, copper, arsenic, cadmium, and mercury. Lead was determined to be the trace element of most concern because of the large concentrations present in the samples ranging from 4.50 to 551 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg). Sequential extraction analysis of lead indicate that 39.1 percent of the total lead concentration in post-hurricane sediment is associated with the iron-manganese oxide fraction. This fraction is considered extremely mobile under reducing environmental conditions, thereby making lead a potential health hazard. The presence of lead in post-hurricane sediments likely is from redistribution of pre-hurricane contaminated soils and sediments from Lake Pontchartrain and the flood control canals of New Orleans. Arsenic concentrations ranged from 0.84 to 49.1 mg/kg. Although Arsenic concentrations generally were small and consistent with other research results, all samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Human Health Medium-Specific Screening Level of 0.39 mg/kg. Mercury concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 1.30 mg/kg. Comparing the mean mercury concentration present in post-hurricane samples with regional background data from the U.S. Geological Survey National Geochemical Dataset, indicates that mercury concentrations in post-hurricane sediment generally are larger. Sequential extraction analysis of 51 samples for arsenic indicate that 54.5 percent of the total arsenic concentration is contained in the extremely mobile iron-manganese oxide fraction. Pesticide and polychlorinated biphenyl Arochlor concentrations in post-hurricane samples were small. Prometon was the most frequently detected pesticide with concentrations ranging from 2.4 to 193 micrograms per kilogram (µg/kg). Methoxychlor was present in 22 samples with a concentration ranging from 3.5 to 3,510 µg/kg. Although methoxychlor had the largest detected pesticide concentration, it was well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s High-Priority Screening Level for residential soils. Arochlor congeners were not detected for any sample above the minimum detection level of 7.9 µg/kg.

Louisiana↗

Hydrologic and geochemical evaluation of aquifer storage recovery in the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo Aquifer, Charleston, South Carolina, 1998-2002

The hydrologic and geochemical effects of aquifer storage recovery were evaluated to determine the potential for supplying the city of Charleston, South Carolina, with large quantities of potable water during emergencies, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, or hard freezes. An aquifer storage recovery system, including a production well and three observation wells, was installed at a site located on the Charleston peninsula. The focus of this study was the 23.2-meter thick Tertiary-age carbonate and sand aquifer of the Santee Limestone and the Black Mingo Group, the northernmost equivalent of the Floridan aquifer system. Four cycles of injection, storage, and recovery were conducted between October 1999 and February 2002. Each cycle consisted of injecting between 6.90 and 7.19 million liters of water for storage periods of 1, 3, or 6 months. The volume of recovered water that did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary standard for chloride (250 milligrams per liter) varied from 1.48 to 2.46 million liters, which is equivalent to 21 and 34 percent of the total volume injected for the individual tests. Aquifer storage recovery testing occurred within two productive zones of the brackish Santee Limestone/Black Mingo aquifer. The individual productive zones were determined to be approximately 2 to 4 meters thick, based on borehole geophysical logs, electromagnetic flow-meter testing, and specific-conductance profiles collected within the observation wells. A transmissivity and storage coefficient of 37 meters squared per day and 3 x 10-5, respectively, were determined for the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo aquifer. Water-quality and sediment samples collected during this investigation documented baseline aquifer and injected water quality, aquifer matrix composition, and changes in injected/aquifer water quality during injection, storage, and recovery. A total of 193 water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for physical properties, major and minor ions, and nutrients. The aquifer and treated surface water were sodiumchloride and calcium/sodium-bicarbonate water types, respectively. Forty-five samples were collected and analyzed for total trihalomethane. Total trihalomethane data collected during aquifer storage recovery cycle 4 indicated that this constituent would not restrict the use of recovered water for drinking-water purposes. Analysis of six sediment samples collected from a cored well located near the aquifer storage recovery site showed that quartz and calcite were the dominant minerals in the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo aquifer. Estimated cation exchange capacity ranged from 12 to 36 milliequivalents per 100 grams in the lower section of the aquifer. A reactive transport model was developed that included two 2-meter thick layers to describe each of the production zones. The four layers composing the production zones were assigned porosities ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 and hydraulic conductivities ranging from 1 to 8.4 meters per day. Specific storage of the aquifer and confining units was estimated to be 1.5 x 10-5 meter-1. Longitudinal dispersivity of all layers was specified to be 0.5 meter. Leakage through the confining unit was estimated to be minimal and, therefore, not used in the reactive transport modeling. Inverse geochemical modeling indicates that mixing, cation exchange, and calcite dissolution are the dominant reactions that occur during aquifer storage recovery testing in the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo aquifer. Potable water injected into the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo aquifer evolved chemically by mixing with brackish background water and reaction with calcite and cation exchangers in the sediment. Reactive-transport model simulations indicated that the calcite and exchange reactions could be treated as equilibrium processes.

South Carolina↗

Water-Quality Assessment of the Yellowstone River Basin, Montana and Wyoming-Water Quality of Fixed Sites, 1999-2001

The National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an assessment in 1997 of the quality of water resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. Water-quality samples regularly were collected during 1999-2001 at 10 fixed sites on streams representing the major environmental settings of the basin. Integrator sites, which are heterogeneous in land use and geology, were established on the mainstem of the Yellowstone River (4 sites) and on three major tributaries?Clarks Fork Yellowstone River (1 site), the Bighorn River (1 site), and the Powder River (1 site). Indicator sites, which are more homogeneous in land use and geology than the integrator sites, were located on minor tributaries with important environmental settings?Soda Butte Creek in a mineral resource area (1 site), the Tongue River in a forested area (1 site), and the Little Powder River in a rangeland area (1 site). Water-quality sampling frequency generally was at least monthly and included field measurements and laboratory analyses of fecal-indicator bacteria, major ions, dissolved solids, nutrients, trace elements, pesticides, and suspended sediment. Median concentrations of fecal coliform and Escherichia coli were largest for basins that were predominantly rangeland and smallest for basins that were predominantly forested. Concentrations of fecal coliform and Escherichia coli significantly varied by season (p-value <0.001); the smallest median concentrations were during January?March and the largest median concentrations were during April?June. Fecal-coliform concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended limit for a single sample of 400 colonies per 100 milliliters in 2.6 percent of all samples. Escherichia coli concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended limit for a single sample of 298 colonies per 100 milliliters for moderate use, full-body contact recreation in 7.6 percent of all samples. Variations in water type in the basin are reflective of the diverse geologic terrain in the Yellowstone River Basin. The water type of Soda Butte Creek and the Tongue River was calcium bicarbonate. These two sites are in forested and mountainous areas where igneous rocks and Paleozoic-era and Mesozoic-era sedimentary rocks are the dominant geologic groups. The water type of the Little Powder River was sodium sulfate. The Little Powder River originates in the plains, and geology of the basin is nearly homogenous with Tertiary-period sedimentary rocks. Water type of the Yellowstone River changed from a mixed-cation bicarbonate type upstream to a mixed-cation sulfate type downstream. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from fairly dilute in Soda Butte Creek, which had a median concentration of 118 milligrams per liter, to concentrated in the Little Powder River, which had a median concentration of 2,840 milligrams per liter. Nutrient concentrations generally were small and reflect the relatively undeveloped conditions in the basin; however, some correlations were made with anthropogenic factors. Median dissolved-nitrate concentrations in all samples from the fixed sites ranged from 0.04 milligram per liter to 0.54 milligram per liter. Flow-weighted mean dissolved-nitrate concentrations were positively correlated with increasing agricultural land use and rangeland on alluvial deposits upstream from the sites and negatively correlated with increasing forested land. Ammonia concentrations generally were largest in samples collected from the Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana, which is downstream from Yellowstone National Park and receives discharge from geothermal waters that are high in ammonia. Median total-phosphorus concentrations ranged from 0.007 to 0.18 milligram per liter. Median total-phosphorus concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended goal of 0.10 milligram per liter for preventing nuisance plant growth for samples collec

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Estimation of Constituent Concentrations, Loads, and Yields in Streams of Johnson County, Northeast Kansas, Using Continuous Water-Quality Monitoring and Regression Models, October 2002 through December 2006

Johnson County is one of the most rapidly developing counties in Kansas. Population growth and expanding urban land use affect the quality of county streams, which are important for human and environmental health, water supply, recreation, and aesthetic value. This report describes estimates of streamflow and constituent concentrations, loads, and yields in relation to watershed characteristics in five Johnson County streams using continuous in-stream sensor measurements. Specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen were monitored in five watersheds from October 2002 through December 2006. These continuous data were used in conjunction with discrete water samples to develop regression models for continuously estimating concentrations of other constituents. Continuous regression-based concentrations were estimated for suspended sediment, total suspended solids, dissolved solids and selected major ions, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus species), and fecal-indicator bacteria. Continuous daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual loads were calculated from concentration estimates and streamflow. The data are used to describe differences in concentrations, loads, and yields and to explain these differences relative to watershed characteristics. Water quality at the five monitoring sites varied according to hydrologic conditions; contributing drainage area; land use (including degree of urbanization); relative contributions from point and nonpoint constituent sources; and human activity within each watershed. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations were less than the Kansas aquatic-life-support criterion of 5.0 mg/L less than 10 percent of the time at all sites except Indian Creek, which had DO concentrations less than the criterion about 15 percent of the time. Concentrations of suspended sediment, chloride (winter only), indicator bacteria, and pesticides were substantially larger during periods of increased streamflow. Suspended-sediment concentration was nearly always largest at the Mill Creek site. The Mill Creek watershed is undergoing rapid development that likely contributed to larger sustained sediment concentrations. During most of the time, the smallest sediment concentrations occurred at the Indian Creek site, the most urban of the monitored sites, likely because most of the streamflow originates from wastewater-treatment facilities located just upstream from the monitoring site. However, estimated annual suspended-sediment load and yield were largest annually at the Indian Creek site because of substantial contributions during storm runoff. At least 90 percent of the total annual sediment load in 2005?06 at all five monitoring sites occurred in less than 2 percent of the time, generally associated with large storm runoff. About 50 percent of the 2005 sediment load at the Blue River site occurred during a single 3-day storm, the equivalent of less than 1 percent of the time. Suspended-sediment concentration is statistically related to other water-quality constituents, and these relations have potential implications for implementation of best management practices because, if sediment concentrations are decreased, concentrations of sediment-associated constituents such as suspended solids, some nutrients, and bacteria will also likely decrease. Chloride concentrations were largest at the Indian and Mill Creek sites, the two most urban stream sites which also are most affected by road-salt runoff and wastewater-treatment-facility discharges. Two chloride runoff occurrences in January?February 2005 accounted for 19 percent of the total chloride load in Indian Creek in 2005. Escherichia coli density at the Indian Creek site was nearly always largest of the five sites with a median density more than double that of any other site and 15 times the density at the Blue River site which is primarily nonurban. More than 97 percent of the fecal coliform bacteria load at the Indian Creek site and near the B

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Lahar hazard zones for eruption-generated lahars in the Lassen Volcanic Center, California

Lahar deposits are found in drainages that head on or near Lassen Peak in northern California, demonstrating that these valleys are susceptible to future lahars. In general, lahars are uncommon in the Lassen region. Lassen Peak's lack of large perennial snowfields and glaciers limits its potential for lahar development, with the winter snowpack being the largest source of water for lahar generation. The most extensive lahar deposits are related to the May 1915 eruption of Lassen Peak, and evidence for pre-1915 lahars is sparse and spatially limited. The May 1915 eruption of Lassen Peak was a small-volume eruption that generated a snow and hot-rock avalanche, a pyroclastic flow, and two large and four smaller lahars. The two large lahars were generated on May 19 and 22 and inundated sections of Lost and Hat Creeks. We use 80 years of snow depth measurements from Lassen Peak to calculate average and maximum liquid water depths, 2.02 meters (m) and 3.90 m respectively, for the month of May as estimates of the 1915 lahars. These depths are multiplied by the areal extents of the eruptive deposits to calculate a water volume range, 7.05-13.6x10 6 cubic meters (m 3 ). We assume the lahars were a 50/50 mix of water and sediment and double the water volumes to provide an estimate of the 1915 lahars, 13.2-19.8x10 6 m 3 . We use a representative volume of 15x106 m 3 in the software program LAHARZ to calculate cross-sectional and planimetric areas for the 1915 lahars. The resultant lahar inundation zone reasonably portrays both of the May 1915 lahars. We use this same technique to calculate the potential for future lahars in basins that head on or near Lassen Peak. LAHARZ assumes that the total lahar volume does not change after leaving the potential energy, H/L , cone (the height of the edifice, H , down to the approximate break in slope at its base, L ); therefore, all water available to initiate a lahar is contained inside this cone. Because snow is the primary source of water for lahar generation, we assume that the maximum historical water equivalent, 3.90 m, covers the entire basin area inside the H/L cone. The product of planimetric area of each basin inside the H/L and the maximum historical water equivalent yields the maximum water volume available to generate a lahar. We then double the water volumes to approximate maximum lahar volumes. The maximum lahar volumes and an understanding of the statistical uncertainties inherent to the LAHARZ calculations guided our selection of six hypothetical volumes, 1, 3, 10, 30, 60, and 90x10 6 m 3 , to delineate concentric lahar inundation zones. The lahar inundation zones extend, in general, tens of kilometers away from Lassen Peak. The small, more-frequent lahar inundation zones (1 and 3x10 6 m 3 ) are, on average, 10 km long. The exceptions are the zones in Warner Creek and Mill Creek, which extend much further. All but one of the small, more-frequent lahar inundation zones reach outside of the Lassen Volcanic National Park boundary, and the zone in Mill Creek extends well past the park boundary. All of the medium, moderately frequent lahar inundation zones (10 and 30x10 6 m 3 ) extend past the park boundary and could potentially impact the communities of Viola and Old Station and State Highways 36 and 44, both north and west of Lassen Peak. The approximately 27-km-long on average, large, less-frequent lahar inundation zones (60 and 90x10 6 m 3 ) represent worst-case lahar scenarios that are unlikely to occur. Flood hazards continue downstream from the toes of the lahars, potentially affecting communities in the Sacramento River Valley.

California↗

Nutrients, Select Pesticides, and Suspended Sediment in the Karst Terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin, Kentucky, 2004-06

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Department of Agriculture, on nutrients, select pesticides, and suspended sediment in the karst terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin. Streamflow, nutrient, select pesticide, and suspended-sediment data were collected at seven sampling stations from 2004 through 2006. Concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate ranged from 0.21 to 4.9 milligrams per liter (mg/L) at the seven stations. The median concentration of nitrite plus nitrate for all stations sampled was 1.6 mg/L. Total phosphorus concentrations were greater than 0.1 mg/L, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended maximum concentration, in 45 percent of the samples. Concentrations of orthophosphates ranged from less than 0.006 to 0.46 mg/L. Concentrations of nutrients generally were larger during spring and summer months, corresponding to periods of increased fertilizer application on agricultural lands. Concentrations of suspended sediment ranged from 1.0 to 1,490 mg/L at the seven stations. Of the 47 pesticides analyzed, 14 were detected above the adjusted method reporting level of 0.01 micrograms per liter (mug/L). Although these pesticides were detected in water-quality samples, they generally were found at less than part-per-billion concentrations. Atrazine was the only pesticide detected at concentrations greater than U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water standard of 3 mug/L, and the maximum detected concentration was 24.6 mug/L. Loads and yields of nutrients, selected pesticides, and suspended sediment were estimated at two mainstream stations on Sinking Creek, a headwater station (Sinking Creek at Rosetta) and a station at the basin outlet (Sinking Creek near Lodiburg). Mean daily streamflow data were available for the estimation of loads and yields from a stream gage at the basin outlet station; however, only periodic instantaneous flow measurements were available for the headwaters station; mean daily flows at the headwater station were, therefore, estimated using a mathematical record-extension technique known as the Maintenance of Variance-Extension, type 1 (MOVE.1). The estimation of mean daily streamflows introduced a large amount of uncertainty into the loads and yields estimates at the headwater station. Total estimated loads of select (five most commonly detected) pesticides from the Sinking Creek Basin were about 0.01 to 1.2 percent of the estimated application, indicating pesticides possibly are retained within the watershed. Mean annual loads [(in/lb)/yr] for nutrients and suspended sediment were estimated at the two Sinking Creek mainstem sampling stations. The relation between estimated and measured instantaneous loads of nitrite plus nitrate at the Sinking Creek near Lodiburg station indicate a reasonably tight distribution over the range of loads. The model for loads of nitrite plus nitrate at the Sinking Creek at Rosetta station indicates small loads were overestimated and underestimated. Relations between estimated and measured loads of total phosphorus and orthophosphate at both Sinking Creek mainstem stations showed similar patterns to the loads of nitrite plus nitrate at each respective station. The estimated mean annual load of suspended sediment is about 14 times larger at the Sinking Creek near Lodiburg station than at the Sinking Creek near Rosetta station. Estimated yields of nutrients and suspended sediment increased from the headwater to downstream monitoring stations on Sinking Creek. This finding suggests that sources of nutrients and suspended sediment are not evenly distributed throughout the karst terrane of the Sinking Creek Basin. Yields of select pesticides generally were similar from the headwater to downstream monitoring stations. However, the estimated yield of atrazine was about five times higher at the downstream station on Sinking Creek than at the headwater station on Sinking Creek.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Use of instantaneous streamflow measurements to improve regression estimates of index flow for the summer month of lowest streamflow in Michigan

In Michigan, index flow Q50 is a streamflow characteristic defined as the minimum of median flows for July, August, and September. The state of Michigan uses index flow estimates to help regulate large (greater than 100,000 gallons per day) water withdrawals to prevent adverse effects on characteristic fish populations. At sites where long-term streamgages are located, index flows are computed directly from continuous streamflow records as GageQ50. In an earlier study, a multiple-regression equation was developed to estimate index flows IndxQ50 at ungaged sites. The index equation explains about 94 percent of the variability of index flows at 147 (index) streamgages by use of six explanatory variables describing soil type, aquifer transmissivity, land cover, and precipitation characteristics. This report extends the results of the previous study, by use of Monte Carlo simulations, to evaluate alternative flow estimators, DiscQ50, IntgQ50, SiteQ50, and AugmQ50. The Monte Carlo simulations treated each of the available index streamgages, in turn, as a miscellaneous site where streamflow conditions are described by one or more instantaneous measurements of flow. In the simulations, instantaneous flows were approximated by daily mean flows at the corresponding site. All estimators use information that can be obtained from instantaneous flow measurements and contemporaneous daily mean flow data from nearby long-term streamgages. The efficacy of these estimators was evaluated over a set of measurement intensities in which the number of simulated instantaneous flow measurements ranged from 1 to 100 at a site. The discrete measurement estimator DiscQ50 is based on a simple linear regression developed between information on daily mean flows at five or more streamgages near the miscellaneous site and their corresponding GageQ50 index flows. The regression relation then was used to compute a DiscQ50 estimate at the miscellaneous site by use of the simulated instantaneous flow measurement. This process was repeated to develop a set of DiscQ50 estimates for all simulated instantaneous measurements, a weighted DiscQ50 estimate was formed from this set. Results indicated that the expected value of this weighted estimate was more precise than the IndxQ50 estimate for all measurement intensities evaluated. The integrated index-flow estimator, IntgQ50, was formed by computing a weighted average of the index estimate IndxQ50 and the DiscQ50 estimate. Results indicated that the IntgQ50 estimator was more precise than the DiscQ50 estimator at low measurement intensities of one to two measurements. At greater measurement intensities, the precision of the IntgQ50 estimator converges to the DiscQ50 estimator. Neither the DiscQ50 nor the IntgQ50 estimators provided site-specific estimates. In particular, although expected values of DiscQ50 and IntgQ50 estimates converge with increasing measurement intensity, they do not necessarily converge to the site-specific value of Q50. The site estimator of flow, SiteQ50, was developed to facilitate this convergence at higher measurement intensities. This is accomplished by use of the median of simulated instantaneous flow values for each measurement intensity level. A weighted estimate of the median and information associated with the IntgQ50 estimate was used to form the SiteQ50 estimate. Initial simulations indicate that the SiteQ50 estimator generally has greater precision than the IntgQ50 estimator at measurement intensities greater than 3, however, additional analysis is needed to identify streamflow conditions under which instantaneous measurements will produce estimates that generally converge to the index flows. A preliminary augmented index regression equation was developed, which contains the index regression estimate and two additional variables associated with base-flow recession characteristics. When these recession variables were estimated as the medians of recession parameters compute

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon↗

Determination of time-of-travel, dispersion characteristics, and oxygen reaeration coefficients during low streamflows--Lower Tacony/Frankford Creek, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Time-of-travel, dispersion characteristics, and oxygen reaeration coefficients were determined by use of dye and gas tracing for a 2-mile reach of Tacony/Frankford Creek in Philadelphia, southeastern Pennsylvania. The reach frequently has concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) below the water-quality standard of 4 milligrams per liter during warm months. Several large combined sewer overflows (CSOs), including one of the largest in Philadelphia (former Wingohocking Creek), discharge to the study reach in this urbanized watershed, affecting water quality and the timing and magnitude of storm peaks. In addition, a dam that commonly results in backwater conditions and reduced natural reaeration is present a few hundred feet from the end of the study reach. Time-of-travel and reaeration data were collected under base-flow conditions in August and September 2009 for three sub-reaches from Roosevelt Boulevard (U.S. Route 1) to Castor Avenue. Determination of traveltimes to the centroid of the dye cloud were needed for calculation of the reaeration coefficients. Results of the dye study in Tacony/Frankford Creek indicate that traveltimes were affected by the presence of man-made structures, such as the large scour hole and pool developed at the outfall of the T14 CSO and the dam, both of which reduce stream velocities. Mean stream velocities during the dye-tracer tests ranged from a maximum of 0.44 to 0.04 foot per second through a large pool. The dispersion efficiency of the stream was determined from relations between normalized unit concentrations to time to peak for use in water-quality modeling. Oxygen reaeration coefficients determined by a constant rate-injection method using propane as the tracer gas were as low as 0.04 unit per hour in a long pool affected by backwater conditions behind a dam. The highest reaeration coefficient was 2.29 units per hour for a steep-gradient reach with multiple winding channels through gravel deposits, just downstream of a large scour pool developed at the outlet of the T14 CSO. Reaeration coefficients determined from the field tracer-gas method were compared to values calculated by two other methods, one that is based on theoretical equations using physical properties of the stream as variables and the other that is based on equations using the timing of measured daily maximum DO concentrations in the stream. Reaeration coefficients from the two alternate methods were most similar to values determined from the field tracer-gas method for the upstream portion of the study reach, characterized by free-flowing riffle and pools. Values of reaeration coefficients determined by the tracer-gas method were 2 to 10 times higher than values determined by 2 alternate methods for most subreaches hydraulically affected by man-made structures. In addition to the tracer gas, propane, the gas analysis also included methane, ethane, and ethene, of which only methane was measured in concentrations above a few micrograms per liter. Methane, thought to occur naturally or because of ongoing processes in the stream, was measured in concentrations ranging from 6.6 to 78 micrograms per liter; the concentrations were greatest in sub-reaches dominated by pools.

Pennsylvania↗

Tracking heat in the Willamette River system, Oregon

The Willamette River Basin in northwestern Oregon is home to several cold-water fish species whose habitat has been altered by the Willamette Valley Project, a system of 13 dams and reservoirs operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Water-resource managers use a variety of flow- and temperature-management strategies to ameliorate the effects of upstream Willamette Valley Project dams on the habitat and viability of these anadromous and native fish. In this study, new capabilities were added to the CE-QUAL-W2 two-dimensional flow and water-quality model to inform those flow- and temperature-management strategies by tracking the quantities and ages of water and heat from individual upstream sources to downstream locations in the Willamette River system. Specifically, the fraction of water and heat attributable to upstream dam releases or other water inputs, and the fraction of heat sourced from environmental heat fluxes across the water and sediment surfaces, were tracked and quantified in the river at all locations and times simulated by the model. Applying the updated CE-QUAL-W2 models to the Willamette River system for the months of March through October in the years 2011 (cool and wet), 2015 (hot and dry), and 2016 (warm and somewhat dry) demonstrated that the influence of upstream dam releases on downstream water temperature diminished within a few days as water moved downstream. At sites that are roughly two or more days of travel from upstream dams (Albany and downstream), the July–August fraction of riverine heat content that could be tracked back to upstream dam releases typically diminished to less than 20 percent, despite the fact that roughly 50 percent of July–August streamflow could be attributed to upstream dam releases at the same sites. In contrast, the fraction of riverine heat content that could be attributed to environmental energy fluxes continued to increase with downstream distance, from about 59 to 67 percent at Albany during July–August to 62 to 73 percent at Keizer and 68 to 79 percent at Newberg. At locations sufficiently far downstream, upstream dam releases affect water temperature mainly through a decrease in travel time (less time for environmental heat fluxes to warm the river during summer) and an increase in thermal mass (more water to dilute and buffer incoming heat fluxes) rather than through the simple transport of heat content (water temperature) released from the dams. This concept was explored not only for the baseline conditions that occurred in March–October of 2011, 2015, and 2016, but also for a hypothetical high-flow release during August 2016 and an actual high-flow release during August 2017. In these high-flow releases, an extra 2,500 cubic feet per second (roughly) was released from Dexter Dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River, and downstream effects were measured (2017, actual) and simulated (2016, hypothetical). Results of the simulations were consistent with insights gained from the baseline conditions, such that temperature changes caused by flow augmentation were substantial in upstream reaches (measured cooling of about 1.5 °C near Harrisburg [43 miles downstream] and Albany [84 miles downstream] in 2017, and cooling of about 0.5 °C near Albany in 2016) and diminished farther downstream, but still measurable (more than a few tenths of a degree Celsius) even at Newberg, which is about 154 miles downstream. The direct downstream effects of dam releases on the river heat content attributable to those releases were increased by the hypothetical flow augmentation, with increases of 20 percent at Harrisburg and 12 percent at Keizer. Even with a decreased influence of environmental energy fluxes on river heat content, however, the fraction of heat content attributable to such fluxes was still more than 50 percent at and downstream of Albany and more than 70 percent at Newberg, where the river temperature was less affected by upstream dam-release temperatures and instead was affected primarily by a decreased travel time and increased thermal mass.

Oregon↗

Hydrogeology and groundwater flow in alluvial deposits, north Summerset, South Dakota

The city of Summerset is a growing community in west South Dakota. The Sun Valley Estates subdivision in the north part of the city was developed on unconsolidated deposits surrounded by steep terrain. During years with greater than normal precipitation, particularly in 2019, groundwater levels increased in the unconsolidated deposits and caused damage to stormwater systems, sewer infrastructure, and houses with basements. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Summerset, completed a study of the hydrogeology and groundwater flow in the alluvial aquifer part of the unconsolidated deposits in north Summerset to understand the groundwater system in the area and to provide hydrogeologic information in support of future development planning. The study area included most of the Sun Valley Estates subdivision in the north part of the city of Summerset in the east Black Hills of west South Dakota. About 0.7 square mile of water-bearing alluvial deposits is included in the study area. Precipitation in the study area from 2017 to 2019 was compared to the monthly normal values at a nearby climate site. The largest departure from normal was in May 2019 with precipitation exceeding the monthly normal by about 5 inches (in.). All months in 2019, except March, exceeded the monthly normal precipitation. Cumulative departure from normal precipitation in 2019 increased from about 4 in. greater than normal in January to about 18 in. greater than normal in December. The geologic setting of the study area is characterized by the surrounding Black Hills. Unconsolidated Quaternary-age deposits overlie consolidated to partially consolidated Mesozoic-age and Paleozoic-age shales, sandstones, and limestones. Surficial deposits of alluvium and other unconsolidated deposits are the primary surficial geologic units in the study area and form the components of the alluvium hydrogeologic unit of the study area. Results from previous studies of alluvium along nearby Rapid Creek estimated hydraulic conductivity to range from 89 to 2,292 feet per day (ft/d), transmissivity to range from 1,001 to 32,083 feet squared per day, and storage coefficients to range from 0.0002 to 0.16. Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity generally decreased downstream along Rapid Creek (west to east). Slug tests were completed August 16, 2019, at two observation wells completed in the alluvial aquifer in the Sun Valley Estates subdivision to determine hydraulic conductivity. Hydraulic conductivity estimated from AQTESOLV curve-fitting analysis using the Bouwer-Rice method for all slug-in and slug-out trials from two observation wells in the study ranged from 0.20 to 0.26 ft/d for well 441318103220001 (SunValley1 well) and from 0.54 to 14 ft/d for well 441319103215701 (SunValley2 well). The mean, median, and standard deviation of all trials at both wells were 4.3 ft/d, 0.8 ft/d, and 5.6 ft/d, respectively. The extent of the alluvial aquifer was determined by geologic maps and lithologic logs. Alluvial deposits in the study area extend to about 1 mile in the north–south direction and about 1.5 miles in the southeast–northwest direction. The direction of groundwater flow was estimated using water-level records and topographic maps. The resulting potentiometric map indicated that groundwater in the alluvial aquifer under the Sun Valley Estates subdivision originates from higher elevations of the west part of the area of interest and from streams in the southeast part. Recharge and evapotranspiration estimates were results from a Soil-Water Balance model that calculated a matrix of recharge for 2019 with values ranging from 0 to 11.4 in. and an annual mean value of 5.1 in. across the study area. Soil-Water Balance-estimated potential evapotranspiration for 2019 ranged from 28.90 to 28.75 in. and the estimated annual mean was 28.86 in. across the study area. Estimated groundwater budget components for the alluvial aquifer in the area of interest included inflows and outflows. Total estimated groundwater budget components for inflows for 2019 were about 66 percent from recharge, 33 percent from streamflow, and 1 percent from inflow from adjacent aquifers. Total estimated outflows were about 99-percent evapotranspiration and less than 1-percent outflow to adjacent aquifers.

South Dakota↗

Turbidity and suspended sediment in the upper Esopus Creek watershed, Ulster County, New York

Suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs) and turbidity were measured for 2 to 3 years at 14 monitoring sites throughout the upper Esopus Creek watershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York State. The upper Esopus Creek watershed is part of the New York City water-supply system that supplies water to more than 9 million people every day. Turbidity, caused primarily by high concentrations of inorganic suspended particles, is a potential water-quality concern because it colors the water and can reduce the effectiveness of drinking-water disinfection. The purposes of this study were to quantify concentrations of suspended sediment and turbidity levels, to estimate suspended-sediment loads within the upper Esopus Creek watershed, and to investigate the relations between SSC and turbidity. Samples were collected at four locations along the main channel of Esopus Creek and at all of the principal tributaries. Samples were collected monthly and during storms and were analyzed for SSC and turbidity in the laboratory. Turbidity was also measured every 15 minutes at six of the sampling stations with in situ turbidity probes. The largest tributary, Stony Clove Creek, consistently produced higher SSCs and turbidity than any of the other Esopus Creek tributaries. The rest of the tributaries fell into two groups: those that produced moderate SSCs and turbidity and those that produced low SSCs and turbidity. Within those two groups the tributary that produced the highest SSCs and turbidity varied from year to year depending on the hydrologic conditions within each subwatershed. During the 3-year study, Stony Clove Creek accounted for an average of 40 percent of the annual suspended-sediment load measured at the upper Esopus Creek watershed outlet at Coldbrook, more than all of the other measured tributaries combined. The other tributaries to the upper Esopus Creek, taken together, accounted for an average of about 20 percent of the load at Coldbrook during 2010 and 2011, when most of the tributaries were sampled. Woodland Creek, the third largest tributary in the watershed, also accounted for a substantial amount of the load at Coldbrook, an average of 10 percent during the 3 years. Stony Clove Creek appeared to be a persistent source of sediment to Esopus Creek; it had the highest sediment yield (load per unit area) of all monitoring sites, including the outlet at Coldbrook. Discharge, SSC, and turbidity were strongly related at the Coldbrook site but not at every monitoring site. In general, relations between discharge and SSC and turbidity were strongest at sites with high SSCs, with the exception of Stony Clove Creek. Stony Clove Creek had high SSCs and turbidity regardless of discharge, and although concentrations and turbidity values generally increased with increasing discharge, the relation was not strong. Five of the six sites used to investigate the relations between SSC and laboratory turbidity had a coefficient of determination (r 2 ) greater than 0.7. Relations were not as strong between SSC and the turbidity measured by in situ probes because the period of record was shorter and therefore the sample sizes were smaller. Data from in situ turbidity probes were strongly related to turbidity data measured in the laboratory for all but one of the monitoring sites where the relation was strongly leveraged by one sample. Although the in situ turbidity probes appeared to provide a good surrogate for SSC and could allow more accurate calculations of suspended-sediment load than discrete suspended-sediment samples alone, more data would be required to define the regression models throughout the range in discharge, SSCs, and turbidity levels that occur at each monitoring site. Nonetheless, the in situ probes provided much greater detail about the relation between discharge and turbidity than did the grab samples and storm samples measured in the laboratory.

New York↗

Description of 2005-10 domestic water use for selected U.S. cities and guidance for estimating domestic water use

Domestic water-use and related socioeconomic and climatic data for 2005-10 were used in an analysis of 21 selected U.S. cities to describe recent domestic per capita water use, investigate variables that potentially affect domestic water use, and provide guidance for estimating domestic water use. Domestic water use may be affected by a combination of several factors. Domestic per capita water use for the selected cities ranged from a median annual average of 43 to 177 gallons per capita per day (gpcd). In terms of year-to-year variability in domestic per capita water use for the selected cities, the difference from the median ranged from &plusmn; 7 to &plusmn; 26 percent with an overall median variability of &plusmn; 14 percent. As a percentage of total annual water use, median annual domestic water use for the selected cities ranged from 33 to 71 percent with an overall median of 57 percent. Monthly production and water sales data were used to calculate daily per capita water use rates for the lowest 3 consecutive months (low-3) and the highest 3 consecutive months (high-3) of usage. Median low-3 domestic per capita water use for 16 selected cities ranged from 40 to 100 gpcd. Median high-3 domestic per capita water use for 16 selected cities ranged from 53 to 316 gpcd. In general, the median domestic water use as a percentage of the median total water use for 16 selected cities was similar for the low-3 and high-3 periods. Statistical analyses of combined data for the selected cities indicated that none of the socioeconomic variables, including cost of water, were potentially useful as determinants of domestic water use at the national level. However, specific socioeconomic variables may be useful for the estimation of domestic water use at the State or local level. Different socioeconomic variables may be useful in different States. Statistical analyses indicated that specific climatic variables may be useful for the estimation of domestic water use for some, but not all, of the selected cities. National average public supply per capita water use declined from 185 gpcd in 1990 to 171 gpcd in 2005. National average domestic delivery per capita water use declined from 105 gpcd in 1990 to 99 gpcd in 2005. Average State domestic delivery per capita water use ranged from 51 to 189 gpcd in 2005. The average annual total per capita water use in 19 selected cities that provided data for each year declined from 167 gpcd in 2006 to 145 gpcd in 2010. During this time period, average per capita water use measured during the low-3 period each year declined from 115 to 102 gpcd, and average per capita use measured during the high-3 period declined from 250 to 211 gpcd. Continued collection of data on water deliveries to domestic populations, as well as updated estimates of the population served by these deliveries, is recommended for determination of regional and temporal trends in domestic per capita water use. Declines in various measures of per capita water use have been observed in recent years for several States with municipal water use data-collection programs. Domestic self-supplied water use historically has not been metered. Estimates of self-supplied domestic water use are made using estimates of the population that is not served by public water suppliers and per capita coefficients. For 2005, the average State domestic self-supplied per capita use in the United States ranged from 50 to 206 gpcd. The median domestic self-supplied per capita use was 76 gpcd for States in which standard coefficients were used, and 98 gpcd for States in which coefficients were based on domestic deliveries from public supply. In specific areas with scarce resources or increasing numbers of households with private wells, an assessment of domestic water use may require metering of households or development of more specific per capita coefficients to estimate water demand.

California;Kansas;Mississippi;Montana;Texas;Wiscon↗

Assessment of water availability in the Osage Nation using an integrated hydrologic-flow model

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, covers about 2,900 square miles. The area is primarily rural with 62 percent of the land being native prairie grass, and much of the area is used for cattle ranching and extraction of petroleum and natural gas. Protection of water rights are important to the Osage Nation because of its reliance on cattle ranching and the potential for impairment of water quality by petroleum extraction. Additionally, the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area further the need for the Osage Nation to better understand its water availability. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, completed a hydrologic investigation to assess the status and availability of surface-water and groundwater resources in the Osage Nation. A transient integrated hydrologic-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey fully integrated hydrologic-flow model called the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. The integrated hydrologic-flow model, called the Osage Nation Integrated Hydrologic Model (ONIHM), was constructed and uses an orthogonal grid of 276 rows and 289 columns, and each grid cell measures 1,312.34 feet (ft; 400 meters) per side, with eight variably thick vertical layers that represented the alluvial and bedrock aquifers within the study area, including the alluvial aquifer, the Vamoosa-Ada aquifer, and the minor Pennsylvanian bedrock aquifers, and the confining units. Landscape and groundwater-flow processes were simulated for two periods: (1) the 1950–2014 period from January 1950 through September 2014 and (2) the forecast period from October 2014 through December 2099. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated past conditions using measured or estimated inputs, and the forecast-period ONIHM simulated three separate potential forecast conditions under constant dry, average, or wet climate conditions using calibrated input values from the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated by linking the Parameter Estimation software (PEST) with the MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Model. PEST uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify the best set of parameter values to minimize the difference between measured or estimated calibration targets and their simulated equivalent values (residuals). Tikhonov regularization and singular-value decomposition-assist features of PEST were used during the calibration process. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM was calibrated to 713 measured groundwater levels at 195 wells; 95,636 estimated monthly mean groundwater levels at 124 wells; 5,307 measured streamflows at 13 streamgages; and 8,679 simulated mean monthly streamflows at 10 streamgages extracted from a surface-water model by adjusting 231 parameters. The estimated groundwater-level observations and streamflows were included as observations to improve the spatial and temporal density of observation targets during calibration. The best set of parameter values obtained during the calibration process of the 1950–2014 model was then used as the input parameter values for the forecast model simulations. A comparison of the calibration targets to their corresponding simulated values indicated that the model adequately reproduced streamflows and groundwater levels for some streamgages and wells and underestimated streamflows and groundwater levels at other locations. Measured and simulated streamflows correlated adequately with a coefficient of determination of 0.938, as did water levels with a coefficient of determination of 0.795. The 1950–2014 period ONIHM underestimated certain groundwater levels and streamflows, but generally measured or estimated calibration targets correlated well with simulated equivalents, which indicated that the model can adequately simulate the response of the hydrologic system to stresses in the 1950–2014 and forecast periods. In the 1950–2014 period ONIHM, the calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity for layer 1 alluvial aquifer was 30.7 feet per day, and the seven lower layers had a calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity of less than 3.3 feet per day. The mean calibrated groundwater-level residual was 16.6 ft, and the mean calibrated streamflow residual of the Arkansas River at Ralston, Oklahoma, streamgage (U.S. Geological Survey station 07152500) was within 6 percent (373 cubic feet per second) of mean measured streamflow for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The ONIHM simulated landscape fluxes of precipitation; groundwater applied by irrigation wells; evapotranspiration from precipitation, groundwater, and irrigation; runoff from precipitation; and deep percolation from precipitation. The largest loss of water from the landscape was evapotranspiration from precipitation with a calibrated mean annual outflow of 32 inches (in.): mean annual precipitation was about 36 in. Calibrated mean annual runoff and deep percolation (recharge to the water table) rates were 4.7 inches per year (in/yr) and 0.70 in/yr, respectively, for the 1950–2014 period ONIHM. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM groundwater fluxes included net farm net recharge (calculated as the difference between the inflow of recharge to the water table and the outflow of evapotranspiration from the water table such that negative values indicate that evapotranspiration from the water table was greater than deep percolation [recharge to the water table] and vice versa). Net farm net recharge was the largest flux from the groundwater system with a mean annual net outflow of 153.4 cubic feet per second. Stream leakage was the largest flux to the groundwater system with a mean annual net inflow of 152.5 cubic feet per second, indicating that, on average, the groundwater/surface-water interaction was a “losing” system where stream water leaked into the subsurface and recharged the water table. Simulated monthly trends demonstrated that net stream leakage was the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system for 10 of the 12 months; for the other 2 months (January and March), farm net recharge (January) and net storage (March) were the largest inflow to the groundwater-flow system. A saline groundwater interface map was created for the study and compared to the water levels from the final stress period of the 1950–2014 model to identify the presence of fresh/marginal groundwater throughout the study area. Fresh/marginal groundwater was characterized as groundwater with less than 1,500 milligrams per liter of total dissolved solids. Fresh/marginal groundwater thickness ranged from 0 to 438.2 ft within the study area. The thickest regions of fresh/marginal groundwater were in the eastern part of the study area near Sand Creek, Bird Creek, and Hominy Creek and in the Arkansas River alluvial aquifer in the region downstream from the Arkansas River at Ralston, Okla. Like the 1950–2014 model, forecast model results for the landscape indicated that transpiration from precipitation was the largest flux out of the landscape for all three forecasts, constituting 77, 73, and 58 percent of precipitation for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. The dry and average forecast landscape fluxes demonstrated similar trends and magnitudes, whereas the wet forecast landscape fluxes indicated the largest changes compared to the average forecast fluxes. Most notably, runoff increased from a mean of 1.1 and 1.6 in/yr for the dry and average forecasts, respectively, to 10 in/yr for the wet forecast. Similar changes occurred for the other wet forecast landscape fluxes. The calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM simulated three forecasts to assess the effects of potential climatic changes on the hydrologic system from October 2014 to December 2099. The three forecasts simulated theoretical dry, average, and wet conditions using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets from selected years in the calibrated 1950–2014 period ONIHM. Annual precipitation amounts were 26.89, 35.47, and 50.73 in. for the dry, average, and wet forecasts, respectively. Groundwater-flow component forecast results indicated that stream leakage is always a net inflow to the groundwater-flow system for dry, average, and wet conditions, meaning the study area stream network is always predominantly a “losing” regime where stream water infiltrates into the underlying aquifer. Storage was only a net outflow from the groundwater-flow system and indicated a replenishment to groundwater storage that resulted in an increase in groundwater levels only during the wet forecast. Further, these gains in groundwater storage for the wet forecast occurred only during February through June. Mean fresh/marginal groundwater saturated thicknesses were 125 and 126 ft for the dry and average forecast conditions, respectively, and wet forecast average thickness was 145 ft and ranged from 0 to 443 ft. The spatial extents of fresh/marginal groundwater at the end of the dry, average, and wet forecast model periods (December 2099) did not change substantially from the end of the 1950–2014 model period (September 2014).

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

Streamflow monitoring and statistics for development of water rights claims for Wild and Scenic Rivers, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), collected streamflow data in 2012 and estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated "Wild," "Scenic," or "Recreational" under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim in autumn 2012 to protect federally designated "outstanding remarkable values" in the stream segments. BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20 and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull streamflow are important streamflow thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Prior to this study, streamflow statistics estimated using available datasets and tools for the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness were inaccurate for use in the water rights claim. Streamflow measurements were made at varying intervals during February–September 2012 at 14 monitoring sites; 2 of the monitoring sites were equipped with telemetered streamgaging equipment. Synthetic streamflow records were created for 11 of the 14 monitoring sites using a partial‑record method or a drainage-area-ratio method. Streamflow records were obtained directly from an operating, long-term streamgage at one monitoring site, and from discontinued streamgages at two monitoring sites. For 10 sites analyzed using the partial-record method, discrete measurements were related to daily mean streamflow at a nearby, telemetered “index” streamgage. Resulting regression equations were used to estimate daily mean and annual peak streamflow at the monitoring sites during the full period of record for the index sites. A synthetic streamflow record for Sheep Creek was developed using a drainage-area-ratio method, because measured streamflows did not relate well to any index site to allow use of the partial-record method. The synthetic and actual daily mean streamflow records were used to estimate daily mean streamflow that was exceeded 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time (80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedances) for bimonthly and annual periods. Bankfull streamflow statistics were calculated by fitting the synthetic and actual annual peak streamflow records to a log Pearson Type III distribution using Bulletin 17B guidelines in the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ) for the regressions between the monitoring and index sites ranged from 0.74 for Wickahoney Creek to 0.98 for the West Fork Bruneau River and Deep Creek. Confidence in computed streamflow statistics is highest among other sites for the East Fork Owyhee River and the West Fork Bruneau River on the basis of regression statistics, visual fit of the related data, and the range and number of streamflow measurements. Streamflow statistics for sites with the greatest uncertainty included Big Jacks, Little Jacks, Cottonwood, Wickahoney, and Sheep Creeks. The uncertainty in computed streamflow statistics was due to a number of factors which included the distance of index sites relative to monitoring sites, relatively low streamflow conditions that occurred during the study, and the limited number and range of streamflow measurements. However, the computed streamflow statistics are considered the best possible estimates given available datasets in the remote study area. Streamflow measurements over a wider range of hydrologic and climatic conditions would improve the relations between streamflow characteristics at monitoring and index sites. Additionally, field surveys are needed to verify if the streamflows selected for the water rights claims are sufficient for maintaining outstanding remarkable values in the Wild and Scenic rivers included in the study.

Idaho;Nevada;Oregon↗

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is representative of the increased development of the last 20 years (1989–2008). The two different land- and water-use conditions were used as surrogates for development to determine whether there have been changes in low-flow statistics as a result of changes in development over time. The State was divided into two low-flow regression regions, the Coastal Plain and the non-coastal region, in order to improve the accuracy of the regression equations. The left-censored parametric survival regression method was used for the analyses to account for streamgages and partial-record stations that had zero flow values for some of the statistics. The average standard error of estimate for the 348 regression equations ranged from 16 to 340 percent. These regression equations and basin characteristics are presented in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web-based geographic information system application. This tool allows users to click on an ungaged site on a stream in New Jersey and get the estimated flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Additionally, the user can click on a streamgage or partial-record station and get the “at-site” streamflow statistics. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect the use of the stream by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to water managers who deal with problems related to municipal and industrial water supply, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of wastewater.

New Jersey↗

Critical minerals in subduction-related magmatic-hydrothermal systems of the United States

During the World War and Cold War eras (1910s–1990s), domestic consumption of numerous mineral commodities relied increasingly on imported supplies. Consumption reliance has since expanded to include 50 “critical minerals” (elements and mineral commodities) that are mostly to entirely imported and subject to curtailment by suppliers or supply chain disruption. New domestic supplies of critical minerals are being pursued by mining companies and by several federal departments and agencies. Information on domestic deposits and resources of critical minerals is being compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program, which has organized investigations by mineral system, deposit type, and commodity. Production, reserves, resources, and inventories of 21 critical minerals in domestic magmatic-hydrothermal deposits related to subduction-generated magmatism, and in tailings, slag, slimes, and electrolyte from copper concentrators, smelters, and refineries that processed some deposits, are largely restricted to Western States and Alaska. The critical mineral commodities Al, Sb, As, Bi, Co, fluorite, Ga, Ge, In, Mn, Ni, Nb, Pd, Pt, potash, Re, Ta, Te, Sn, W, and V are variably concentrated in porphyry/skarn copper-(molybdenum), skarn-replacement-vein (S-R-V) tungsten, polymetallic sulfide S-R-V intermediate sulfidation (IS), high-sulfidation gold-silver, low-sulfidation gold-silver, and lithocap alunite deposit types. These deposit types occur in porphyry copper-molybdenum-gold, alkalic porphyry, porphyry tin (granite related), and reduced intrusion-related mineral systems. Production, reserves, and resources of Co, Ni, Nb, Pd, Pt, Ta, Sn, and V in subduction-related deposits in Western States are insignificant to small, mostly equivalent to months to a few years of recent annual domestic consumption (2016–2020). Significant inventories, equivalent to 2 or more years of consumption of aluminum, antimony, potash, and tungsten in unmined S-R-V tungsten, polymetallic sulfide S-R-V-IS, and lithocap alunite deposits vary from approximately 2 to 8 years. Several decades of consumption of arsenic, bismuth, fluorite, gallium, germanium, and indium exist in some polymetallic sulfide S-R-V-IS and lithocap alunite deposit types. Based on concentrations of critical minerals in reserves, resources, drill holes, and deposit domains (ore types), and in captive refinery records, the largest domestic inventories of Sb, As, Bi, Re, and Te, and possibly Ga, Ge, In, Sn, and W, are in porphyry copper-molybdenum (Cu-Mo) deposits in Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona, and in interim products of processing porphyry Cu-Mo deposit ores for recovery of copper and molybdenum. Concentrations of critical minerals in archival specimens and sample collections, although somewhat biased by collection and conservation decisions and categorization, are broadly proportionate to those in reserves, resources, and drill holes. These concentrations imply significant inventories of some critical minerals in deposits for which production, resources, and refinery records are unavailable or incomplete. Because of the large masses of ores mined and processed annually (hundreds of millions of metric tons) and in reserves and resources (hundreds of millions of metric tons to billions of metric tons), calculated inventories of critical minerals in porphyry Cu-Mo deposits are equivalent to decades and centuries of recent consumption. However, these inventories should not be considered consumable supplies without reserve definition and development of economically viable mining plans and recovery techniques. An expeditious strategy for elimination or reduction of import reliance is recovery, and improved recovery efficiency, of Sb, As, Bi, Re, and Te, and possibly Ga, Ge, In, Ni, Sn, Ti, and W; during concentration and refining of copper and molybdenum minerals in ores of operating porphyry Cu-Mo mines; and in unmined porphyry Cu-Mo resources. These chalcophile, siderophile, and lithophile critical minerals, often undetectable in ore, are concentrated (hundreds of parts per million to percents) in slimes and electrolyte during copper electrorefining or could be recovered, in part, during sulfide concentration and smelting. Other than rhenium (recovered during molybdenum refining) and tellurium, all have been routinely discarded. Subsidization (for example, commodity price guarantees, tax credits, recovery technology development), political initiative, and (or) sustained market favorability could support new production of critical mineral commodities from subduction-related magmatic-hydrothermal deposits in Western States. In addition, insufficient domestic refining capacity could relegate the large inventories of critical minerals in porphyry Cu-Mo reserves and resources (for example, Pebble, Alaska; Resolution and Copper World [Rosemont], Arizona) to exportation in concentrates and importation insecurity, fortifying their present status.

Scientific Investigations Report↗