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USGS2017

Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

Early resolution of uncertainty during an epidemic outbreak can lead to rapid and efficient decision making, provided that the uncertainty affects prioritization of actions. The wide range in caseload projections for the 2014 Ebola outbreak caused great concern and debate about the utility of models. By coding and running 37 published Ebola models with five candidate interventions, we found that, despite this large variation in caseload projection, the ranking of management options was relatively consistent. Reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission were generally ranked as the two best options. Value of information (VoI) analyses show that caseloads could be reduced by 11% by resolving all model-specific uncertainties, with information about model structure accounting for 82% of this reduction and uncertainty about caseload only accounting for 12%. Our study shows that the uncertainty that is of most interest epidemiologically may not be the same as the uncertainty that is most relevant for management. If the goal is to improve management outcomes, then the focus of study should be to identify and resolve those uncertainties that most hinder the choice of an optimal intervention. Our study further shows that simplifying multiple alternative models into a smaller number of relevant groups (here, with shared structure) could streamline the decision-making process and may allow for a better integration of epidemiological modeling and decision making for policy.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS1993

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

Professional Paper↗

USGS2012

The discourses of incidents: Cougars on Mt. Elden and in Sabino Canyon, Arizona

Incidents are relatively short periods of intensified discourse that arise from public responses to symbolically important actions by public officials, and an important part of the conflict that increasingly surrounds state wildlife management in the West. In an effort to better understand incidents as a facet of this conflict, we analyzed the discourses of two incidents in Arizona that were precipitated by the intended removal of cougars by managers in response to public safety concerns. We used newspaper content, 1999–2007, to elucidate seminal patterns of public discourses and discourse coalitions as well as differences in discursive focus between incident periods and background periods. Cougars were mentioned in newspaper articles 13–33 times more often during incidents compared with background periods. State wildlife agency commissioners and hunters were part of a discourse coalition that advocated killing cougars to solve problems, blamed cougars and those who promoted the animals’ intrinsic value and sought to retain power to define and solve cougar-related problems. Personnel from affected state and federal agencies expressed a similar discourse. Environmentalists, animal protection activists, and some elected officials were of a coalition that defined “the problem” primarily in terms of people’s behaviors, including behaviors associated with current institutional arrangements. This discourse advocated decentralizing power over cougar management. The discourses reflected different preferences for the allocations of power and use of lethal versus non-lethal methods, which aligned with apparent core beliefs and participants’ enfranchisement or disenfranchisement by current state-level management power arrangements.

Arizona↗

USGS2015

Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae ), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2015

Developing a conservation strategy to maximize persistence of an endangered freshwater mussel species while considering management effectiveness and cost

We used a structured decision-making process to develop conservation strategies to increase persistence of Dwarf Wedgemussel ( Alasmidonta heterodon ) in North Carolina, USA, while accounting for uncertainty in management effectiveness and considering costs. Alternative conservation strategies were portfolios of management actions that differed by location of management actions on the landscape. Objectives of the conservation strategy were to maximize species persistence, maintain genetic diversity, maximize public support, and minimize management costs. We compared 4 conservation strategies: 1) the ‘status quo’ strategy represented current management, 2) the ‘protect the best’ strategy focused on protecting the best populations in the Tar River basin, 3) the ‘expand the distribution’ strategy focused on management of extant populations and establishment of new populations in the Neuse River basin, and 4) the ‘hybrid’ strategy combined elements of each strategy to balance conservation in the Tar and Neuse River basins. A population model informed requirements for population management, and experts projected performance of alternative strategies over a 20-y period. The optimal strategy depended on the relative value placed on competing objectives, which can vary among stakeholders. The protect the best and hybrid strategies were optimal across a wide range of relative values with 2 exceptions: 1) if minimizing management cost was of overriding concern, then status quo was optimal, or 2) if maximizing population persistence in the Neuse River basin was emphasized, then expand the distribution strategy was optimal. The optimal strategy was robust to uncertainty in management effectiveness. Overall, the structured decision process can help identify the most promising strategies for endangered species conservation that maximize conservation benefit given the constraint of limited funding.

North Carolina↗

USGS2015

Characterization of Missouri surface waters near point sources of pollution reveals potential novel atmospheric route of exposure for bisphenol A and wastewater hormonal activity pattern

Surface water contamination by chemical pollutants increasingly threatens water quality around the world. Among the many contaminants found in surface water, there is growing concern regarding endocrine disrupting chemicals, based on their ability to interfere with some aspect of hormone action in exposed organisms, including humans. This study assessed water quality at several sites across Missouri (near wastewater treatment plants and airborne release sites of bisphenol A) based on hormone receptor activation potencies and chemical concentrationspresent in the surface water. We hypothesized that bisphenol A and ethinylestradiol would be greater in water near permitted airborne release sites and wastewater treatment plant inputs, respectively, and that these two compounds would be responsible for the majority of activities in receptor-based assays conducted with water collected near these sites. Concentrations of bisphenol A and ethinylestradiol were compared to observed receptor activities using authentic standards to assess contribution to total activities, and quantitation of a comprehensive set of wastewater compounds was performed to better characterize each site. Bisphenol A concentrations were found to be elevated in surface water near permitted airborne release sites, raising questions that airborne releases of BPA may influence nearby surface water contamination and may represent a previously underestimated source to the environment and potential for human exposure. Estrogen and androgen receptor activities of surface water samples were predictive of wastewater input, although the lower sensitivity of the ethinylestradiol ELISA relative to the very high sensitivity of the bioassay approaches did not allow a direct comparison. Wastewater-influenced sites also had elevated anti-estrogenic and anti-androgenic equivalence, while sites without wastewater discharges exhibited no antagonist activities.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2024

Challenges of implementing a multi-agency monitoring and adaptive management strategy for federally threatened Chinook salmon and steelhead trout during and after dam removal in the Elwha River

Adaptive management, a process of planning, implementing, and evaluating management strategies, is often recommended for monitoring ecological systems. However, few examples of successful implementation and retrospective case studies exist. We provide a case study of adaptively managing hatchery-assisted protection and recovery for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ) during and after the removal of two large mainstem dams in the Elwha River, WA. We summarize key aspects of the monitoring and adaptive management plan over the last decade and highlight successes, challenges, and complications during the plan’s implementation. The Elwha Monitoring and Adaptive Management Guidelines included a trigger-based system for moving through four phases of recovery that included preservation, recolonization, local adaptation, and viable natural population, each with differing levels of hatchery production as the management actions. The monitoring component of the plan has been very successful, providing critical data to guide management actions that otherwise may not have occurred and, opportunistically, provided data for other native species in the Elwha River. Implementing adaptive management provided mixed results and was at times hindered by divergent management goals among project partners, the inflexibility of the Endangered Species Act regulatory requirements as implemented for this project, and conflicting information among guidance documents. We learned that some metrics and triggers in the plan were ill-defined or too difficult to measure in the field. In some cases, the performance indicators and/or triggers were successfully modified to incorporate what was learned; however, in other cases, we were unable to revise the values due to differing opinions among partners. The ability to reach consensus on revised triggers appeared to be influenced by the recovery trajectory of the species involved. The implemented adaptive management strategy resulted in substantial collaboration and learning, which resulted in revised management strategies, but was imperfect. Sufficient long-term funding is necessary to implement a well-designed monitoring program and could benefit from including a defined leadership position to shepherd and facilitate a multi-stakeholder adaptive management program. Additionally, incorporating adaptive management into legally binding conditions under the Endangered Species Act is feasible, but requires substantial pre-planning in close coordination with regulatory agencies.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Environmental and anthropogenic drivers of contaminants in agricultural watersheds with implications for land management

If not managed properly, modern agricultural practices can alter surface and groundwater quality and drinking water resources resulting in potential negative effects on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Exposure to agriculturally derived contaminant mixtures has the potential to alter habitat quality and negatively affect fish and other aquatic organisms. Implementation of conservation practices focused on improving water quality continues to increase particularly in agricultural landscapes throughout the United States. The goal of this study was to determine the consequences of land management actions on the primary drivers of contaminant mixtures in five agricultural watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest watershed of the Atlantic Seaboard in North America where fish health issues have been documented for two decades. Surface water was collected and analyzed for 301 organic contaminants to determine the benefits of implemented best management practices (BMPs) designed to reduce nutrients and sediment to streams in also reducing contaminants in surface waters. Of the contaminants measured, herbicides (atrazine, metolachlor), phytoestrogens (formononetin, genistein, equol), cholesterol and total estrogenicity (indicator of estrogenic response) were detected frequently enough to statistically compare to seasonal flow effects, landscape variables and BMP intensity. Contaminant concentrations were often positively correlated with seasonal stream flow, although the magnitude of this effect varied by contaminant across seasons and sites. Land-use and other less utilized landscape variables including biosolids, manure and pesticide application and percent phytoestrogen producing crops were inversely related with site-average contaminant concentrations. Increased BMP intensity was negatively related to contaminant concentrations indicating potential co-benefits of BMPs for contaminant reduction in the studied watersheds. The information gained from this study will help prioritize ecologically relevant contaminant mixtures for monitoring and contributes to understanding the benefits of BMPs on improving surface water quality to better manage living resources in agricultural landscapes inside and outside the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

USGS2024

Variability in coastal habitat available for Longfin Smelt Spirinchus thaleichthys in the northeastern Pacific Ocean

An understanding of oceanographic conditions and processes important to marine animal ecology is fundamental to the development of effective management and conservation actions. Longfin Smelt ( Spirinchus thaleichthys ) is a pelagic forage fish found in coastal and estuarine waters along the Pacific coast of North America from Alaska to central California. Substantial population declines in California’s San Francisco Estuary, where Longfin Smelt are protected under California’s Endangered Species Act, have prompted extensive study of estuarine factors associated with the decline. However, coastal factors that affect up to two-thirds of the Longfin Smelt life cycle are poorly understood and may be important drivers of population dynamics. We compiled coastal observations from numerous sources to estimate the range-wide coastal marine distribution of Longfin Smelt and assess habitat factors affecting distribution in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Based on maximum entropy species distribution models, Longfin Smelt distribution was correlated with depth, distance from the nearest estuary, sea surface temperature, and sea surface chlorophyll. Longfin Smelt were found in shallow, higher productivity coastal waters closer to estuaries, with depth and temperature the most consistent factors influencing distribution. Habitat suitability was highly variable at the southern extent of the range, particularly off the California coast, and was largely driven by habitat contractions associated with warm-water conditions. Study results provide insights into the habitat and range-wide distribution of an at-risk estuarine-reliant forage fish and are the first step toward identifying processes that affect the marine portion of the Longfin Smelt life cycle.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2024

Land use and dog park associations with Escherichia coli in the Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area watershed

A recent study in the Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (CHAT) indicated that dogs were a primary source of fecal contamination in the Chattahoochee River and that at least some of the contamination in the river was coming from locations outside of CHAT. The study herein sought to determine if dog parks in the CHAT watershed were sources of dog fecal contamination in streams within the watershed. Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) data were compiled from the Chattahoochee Riverkeeper Neighborhood Water Watch (NWW) program for sites within the CHAT watershed. Information about dog park locations within the Atlanta metropolitan area was compiled through online searches. Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, forward stepwise linear regression, and Spearman rank correlations were used to investigate the relations between seasonal E. coli levels ( E. coli concentration and the proportion of samples that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency beach action value [BAV]) and dog parks within the drainage basins. NWW sites with dog parks within the drainage basins had higher E. coli concentrations in the summer and winter, and samples exceeded the BAV more frequently in the winter than sites without dog parks within the drainage basins. Escherichia coli levels in the summer and winter were positively correlated with the number of dog parks within the drainage basins, indicating that E. coli concentrations and the frequency of BAV exceedances were seasonally higher at sites with more dog parks than at sites with fewer dog parks within the drainage basins. Escherichia coli concentrations in the summer were negatively correlated with distance to the nearest dog park in the drainage basin, indicating that sites with at least one dog park in close proximity had higher E. coli concentrations in the summer than sites for which the closest dog park was more distantly located. However, results of this study may have been influenced by the high degree of spatial autocorrelation in the data caused by overlapping drainage basins. Additionally, E. coli occurs in the gut systems of many species, so concentrations of E. coli may not represent levels of dog fecal contamination. Dog waste in residential yards and neighborhoods is a possible source of contamination in the watershed that could be investigated in future studies on sources of fecal contamination in the CHAT watershed. Utilizing dog-specific genetic markers in future studies would help reduce ambiguity in data interpretation.

Georgia↗

USGS2025

Temporal and spatial comparison of coal mine ventilation methane emissions and mitigation quantified using PRISMA satellite data and on-site measurements

Emission monitoring at the facility level (bottom-up, BU) is key for accurate reporting of coal mine methane (CMM) emissions. Recent advances in aerial and satellite observations (top-down, TD) indicate that these methods have the potential to support CMM emissions monitoring and reporting of, as well as track the effectiveness of, mitigation actions. That said, studies have shown discrepancies between BU and TD estimations. Performing TD monitoring with concurrent BU measurements at the same mines may help address the observed discrepancies and improve quantification methods to narrow the gap between BU and TD data. This paper presents a comparison of concurrent BU-TD methane emission fluxes monitored from two ventilation shafts at a southwestern Virginia, USA, longwall mine to complement the existing body of studies on satellite-based monitoring of coal mines by incorporating continuous ground-based monitoring with concurrent TD monitoring of methane emission fluxes to address the gap and provide valuable insights into temporal emission patterns. The shafts were monitored on multiple dates between 2020 and 2023. BU monitoring was performed at the exhaust fans, while TD quantifications used PRISMA hyperspectral satellite data and two different wind reanalysis datasets (i.e., GEOS-FP and ERA5). This mine also offered a unique opportunity for BU-TD comparisons before and after ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidizer operation, which was installed at one of the shafts in 2022. The results showed that TD-estimated mean fluxes were generally lower than BU data, which were attributed to quantification difficulties associated with the low albedo caused by heavy vegetation and the terrain of the area. However, despite the discrepancies in mean emissions, both the interquartile range and the data range of the distributions generally overlapped, and the estimates correctly showed the emission trends.

Virginia↗

USGS2021

Annotated bibliography of scientific research on Ventenata dubia published from 2010 to 2020

Integrating recent science into management decisions supports effective natural resource management and can lead to better resource outcomes. However, finding and accessing science information can be time consuming and costly. To assist in this process, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is creating a series of annotated bibliographies on topics of management concern for western lands. Previously published reports introduced a methodology for preparing annotated bibliographies to facilitate the integration of recent, peer-reviewed science into resource management decisions. Therefore, relevant text from those efforts is reproduced here to frame the presentation. Invasive annual grasses are widely distributed throughout the western United States and threaten native ecosystems by altering fire regimes, replacing native plants, and altering grazing patterns, often with tremendous associated costs. One invasive annual grass, Ventenata dubia (hereafter, ventenata), was first introduced to the United States in the 1950s and has recently been identified as a management concern. Ventenata has a wide native geographic range, from Africa to northern Europe, and could thus potentially spread widely in the United States if left unmanaged. We compiled and summarized peer-reviewed journal articles, government reports, and data products on ventenata published between January 1, 2010, and August 27, 2020. We first conducted a systematic search of three reference databases and three government databases using the search phrase: “ventenata” OR “Ventenata dubia.” We refined the initial list of products by removing (1) duplicates, (2) products not written in English, (3) publications that were not focused in North America, (4) publications that were not published as research, data products, or scientific review articles in peer-reviewed journals or as formal technical reports, and (5) products for which ventenata was not a research focus or for which the study did not present new data or findings about ventenata. We summarized each product using a consistent structure (background, objectives, methods, location, findings, and implications) and identified the management topics (for example, species and population characteristics, habitat, control and management efforts) addressed by each product. We also noted which publications included new geospatial data. The review process for this annotated bibliography included an initial internal colleague review of each summary, requesting input on each summary from an author of the original publication, and a formal peer review. Our initial searches resulted in 505 total products, of which 29 met our criteria for inclusion. Nonnative invasive plants; weed management; behavior or demographics; dispersal, spread, vectors and pathways; site-scale habitat characteristics; survival; and weed management subtopic: herbicides were the management topics most commonly addressed. The online version of this annotated bibliography will be searchable by topic, location, and year; it will also include links to each original publication, where available. The studies compiled and summarized here may inform planning and management actions that seek to maintain and restore landscapes and control nonnative invasive species across the western United States.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗

USGS2016

Evaluation of reproductive status in Atlantic Tripletail by traditional and nonlethal approaches

Reproductive biology information is an important tool for fishery management actions such as the identification of spawning areas and the development of protective size limits, bag limits, and seasons. Such information for the management of Atlantic Tripletail Lobotes surinamensis is currently limited, particularly in the western Atlantic Ocean, as information regarding the reproductive biology of this species is sparse in the published literature. To this end, we determined the reproductive status of tripletail and compared the results of a nonlethal sampling method, plasma vitellogenin (VTG) analysis, with those of two traditional (lethal) methods, gonadosomatic index (GSI) and gonad histology. A total of 223 (122 male and 101 female) tripletail were sampled over 2 years near Jekyll Island, Georgia. Gonad histology indicated that 107 (94%) of the male tripletail were in the spawning-capable reproductive phase. Female tripletail were found in all reproductive phases, but only nine (8.9%) were in the spawning-capable phase. Plasma VTG was strongly related to GSI in females ( R 2 = 0.832, n = 77), and female GSI differed significantly among reproductive phases ( p < 0.0001). The estimated length at which 50% (L50) of female tripletail reached maturity was 463 mm; however, the L50 for male tripletail could not be determined because of the lack of immature fish within the study sample. Our study provides valuable information for the management of tripletail and indicates that a nonlethal approach (plasma VTG) may be useful for differentiating developing and spawning-capable females from males and from females in other reproductive phases.

Georgia↗

USGS2024

Long-term occupancy monitoring reveals value of moderate disturbance for an open-habitat specialist, the Stephens' kangaroo rat (Dipodomys stephensi)

For species of conservation concern, long-term monitoring is vital to properly characterize changes in population distribution and abundance over time. In addition, long-term monitoring guides management decisions by informing and evaluating the efficacy of management actions. A long-term monitoring initiative for the federally threatened Stephens' Kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys stephensi, SKR) was established in 2005, across 628 hectares within Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP), San Diego, California, USA. From 2005 to 2018, we tracked trends in area occupied by SKR, trends in relative SKR densities within occupied habitat, and modeled probabilities of SKR occupancy, colonization, extinction, with habitat, climate, and disturbance covariates. Area occupied by SKR increased almost 2-fold from 2005 to 2018 on MCBCP, while density in occupied habitat increased almost 3-fold. Increased area occupied was correlated with increases in estimated density among years, indicating SKR population growth occurs by expansion into suitable habitat patches, as well as increases in numbers within occupied habitat. SKR occupancy was positively associated with gentle slopes (<10%) and moderate open ground (40–80%) and forb cover (>40%). They were more likely to colonize previously unoccupied habitat when there were moderate levels of open ground (40–80%) and low shrub cover (<20%), while more likely to go locally extinct in areas with high slopes (>10%), less open ground (<20%), and increased non-native grass cover (>40%). Additionally, probabilities of SKR occupancy and colonization were higher in areas with moderate levels of disturbance, which was positively associated with open ground and forb cover. We conclude that long-term occupancy and density monitoring is effective in informing status and trends of spatially dynamic species and that moderate habitat-based disturbance is compatible with the management of SKR.

California↗

USGS2021

Characterizing downstream migration timing of American Eels using commercial catch data in the Penobscot and Delaware rivers

Adult “silver-phase” American Eels Anguilla rostrata were a focus of commercial fisheries in the 1970s and 1980s, but stocks have been depleted due to many anthropogenic factors. One significant source of mortality occurs during the downstream migration of eels when passing through turbines at hydroelectric facilities. We sought to construct a model to predict eel migration timing to inform optimization of mitigation actions that might reduce mortality. We utilized commercial catch collected from 16 tributaries in the Penobscot River watershed, Maine (2–10 years), and the Delaware River, New York (31 years). A Bayesian hierarchical approach was used to model the relationship between the timing of silver eel capture and environmental conditions that are known to be related to their movements (i.e., river discharge, water temperature, and lunar cycle). Among river systems, daily catch was associated with higher-than-average flows, temperatures of 7–22°C, and new lunar phase cycles. A cross-validation approach to evaluate the ability of the models to make predictions for new data demonstrated a greater ability (higher R 2 values) to predict weekly eel catch (0.01–0.92) compared to daily eel catch (0.00–0.42). In addition, we examined the model’s ability to forecast migration events by applying posterior simulations to make predictions of eel catch by ordinal date. Predicted daily eel catch generally followed the trend of observed daily catch and was stronger for the Delaware River ( R 2 = 0.67) than for Souadabscook Stream, Maine ( R 2 = 0.07). Sharp pulses in observed catch were not reflected by the predicted catch. Additionally, variability observed among rivers suggests that site-specific modeling may be advantageous (and necessary) to capture local conditions, thereby improving predictive power. More broadly, our work highlights a novel use of fishery-dependent data in a Bayesian modeling framework to predict intervals of risk for migrating fish.

Maine, New York↗

USGS2017

Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗

USGS2025

Biologging to identify nesting and non-nesting emergences for four species of imperiled sea turtles

Quantifying sea turtle nesting behavior is essential for recovery planning and evaluating management actions. Traditional monitoring approaches, based on nest counts from beach surveys, can misclassify non-nesting emergences, obscure true fecundity, and underestimate clutch frequency, metrics that directly influence population models and regulatory decisions. Here, we demonstrate that high-resolution acceleration data loggers (ADLs) can reliably discriminate nesting from non-nesting emergences across four imperiled species of sea turtles at sites in the Gulf of America, southeast USA, and Caribbean. From 60 recovered ADL deployments on green ( Chelonia mydas ; N = 10), hawksbill ( Eretmochelys imbricata ; N = 7), Kemp’s ridley ( Lepidochelys kempii ; N = 21), and loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ; N = 22) lasting on average 17.5 ± 8.7 days (range 2–43 days), we identified 54 nesting events and 76 non-nesting emergences, with >97% accuracy when compared to direct observations. These data provide the first observer-validated, species-specific behavioral signatures of nesting phases and reveal correlations between egg-laying duration and clutch size. All non-nesting emergences occurred within 72 hours of subsequent nesting, allowing managers to anticipate nest deposition windows. By refining inter-nesting intervals and fecundity estimates, ADLs offer a practical path to reduce error in clutch frequency estimates. The integration of ADL-derived algorithms with satellite-transmitting tags would enable the remote, real-time monitoring of nesting activity, creating a system for the remote monitoring of inter-nesting intervals and nest fecundity that are crucial to quantify the impacts of climate change and other threats to sea turtle nesting habitat.

Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Texas↗