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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Overstorey mortality promotes juvenile piñon pine growth during favourable weather at cooler, wetter sites

Hotter droughts have resulted in widespread tree die-off events globally, frequently leading to regeneration failure. Dry forest recovery often depends on the growth and survival of extant juvenile trees. However, it is unclear how microenvironmental changes following overstorey tree die-off affect juvenile trees, particularly in dryland systems where tree recruitment is typically limited by water availability and heat stress. We simulated an overstorey tree die-off event by girdling trees in piñon-juniper woodlands across the south-western United States. We sampled juvenile piñon pine growth from live and dead overstorey treatments across six study sites spanning a regional latitudinal gradient and local elevational gradients. We examined how juvenile branch and needle growth differed between live and dead overstorey treatments, and whether responses varied with weather conditions and juvenile tree size following overstorey mortality. We found greater juvenile branch and needle growth under dead compared with live overstorey trees for 2 years following overstorey mortality at mid- and high-elevation sites which are typically cooler and wetter than the other sites. These observed growth releases were contingent on favourable post-mortality weather conditions. Higher growth under dead overstorey occurred at sites experiencing near-average climatic water deficits compared with sites experiencing above-average climatic water deficits. Growth at all sites increased from the first to second year after overstorey mortality. Across sites, growth was unrelated to juvenile tree size. Synthesis . Our results underscore differentiation in juvenile responses to overstorey tree die-off driven by local site conditions and weather across the range of Pinus edulis . Overstorey mortality resulted in consistently higher juvenile growth only at climatically favourable sites and during favourable weather, while unmeasured microsite differences could help account for variation observed at the hottest and driest site. Results from less climatically favourable sites suggest that overstorey trees neither directly limit nor facilitate juvenile growth, though further study over longer timeframes is needed to resolve the pace and magnitude of potential recovery or decline. Overall, juvenile vigour may be promoted following overstorey mortality only in a narrow spatial (site) and temporal (weather) environmental context, suggesting additional vulnerabilities for piñon populations under more arid conditions.

Arizona, Colorado↗

USGS2010

Alexandria's Eastern Harbor, Egypt: Pollen, microscopic charcoal, and the transition from natural to human-modified basin

Pollen and microscopic charcoal examined in Holocene sediment core samples record major environmental modifications affecting Alexandria's Eastern Harbor through time. We assess whether such changes on Egypt's coastal margin were influenced primarily by natural, or natural plus human, or primarily human factors. We focus on (1) the times when pollen assemblages and microscopic charcoal content changed in the core, (2) how they changed, and (3) why this occurred. The analysis takes into account the core's stratigraphy, regional climate variability, human history, and local archaeological record. Four pollenmicroscopic charcoal zones are identified. The earliest change occurred at ca. 6000 YBP, during Egypt's earlier Predynastic (Neolithic) period, coinciding with a lithologic break from sand to muddy sand. Pollen during this time indicates a transition to a much drier climate rather than effects of human activity. The second change in pollen occurred 3600-2900 YBP, during a period of continued aridity with no lithologic variation in this core interval. Pollen (cereal taxa, agricultural weeds, grape) and a sharp increase in microscopic charcoal indicate that human activity became prevalent at least 700 y before Alexander the Great's arrival in this region, and these results highlight the transition from a largely natural climatecontrolled environment to one influenced by both climate and anthropogenic activity. The third shift up-core in pollen assemblages is dated at ca. 2300 YBP, at the boundary between a sand and mud unit. It coincides with construction by the Ptolemies of the Heptastadion between Alexandria and Pharos Island. From this time onward, harbor sediment in the nearly enclosed catchment basin indicates a near-continuous record of dominant proximal human activity. ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS1957

On the postglacial history of the Devils Lake Region, North Dakota

Devils and Stump lakes in eastern North Dakota have been diminishing in area more or less continuously since the land around them was settled in the 1880's. Desiccations similar to the current one have occurred at least once and possibly two or more times in the past and are indicated directly and indirectly by tree stumps recently uncovered as the lake water receded and by lacustrine deposits containing buried soils and vertebrate remains. The lake levels seem to respond in a very sensitive manner to slight climatic changes. Probably the present desiccation and certainly the ones in the past are the result of changes toward a drier and warmer climate. The first may have been synchronous with the Thermal Maximum. A high abandoned strand line and associated lacustrine deposits containing buried soils and vertebrate remains indicate at least one period in the postglacial past, possibly following the Thermal Maximum, that was wetter and cooler than the present. A second desiccation, more definitely established and based on the radiocarbon dating of a tree stump, occurred less than 700 years ago, possibly during the sixteenth century.

North Dakota↗

USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2006

Lake sturgeon population characteristics in Rainy Lake, Minnesota and Ontario

Rainy Lake contains a native population of lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens that has been largely unstudied. The aims of this study were to document the population characteristics of lake sturgeon in Rainy Lake and to relate environmental factors to year-class strength for this population. Gill-netting efforts throughout the study resulted in the capture of 322 lake sturgeon, including 50 recaptures. Lake sturgeon in Rainy Lake was relatively plump and fast growing compared with a 32-population summary. Population samples were dominated by lake sturgeon between 110 and 150 cm total length. Age–structure analysis of the samples indicated few younger (<10 years) lake sturgeon, but the smallest gill net mesh size used for sampling was 102 mm (bar measure) and would not retain small sturgeon. Few lake sturgeon older than age 50 years were captured, and maximum age of sampled fish was 59 years. Few correlations existed between lake sturgeon year-class indices and both annual and monthly climate variables, except that mean June air temperature was positively correlated with year-class strength. Analysis of Rainy Lake water elevation and resulting lake sturgeon year-class strength indices across years yielded consistent but weak negative correlations between late April and early June, when spawning of lake sturgeon occurs. The baseline data collected in this study should allow Rainy Lake biologists to establish more specific research questions in the future.

Rainy Lake↗

USGS2007

Regression models of herbicide concentrations in outflow from reservoirs in the midwestern USA, 1992-1993

Reservoirs are used to store water for public water supply, flood control, irrigation, recreation, hydropower, and wildlife habitat, but also often store undesirable substances such as herbicides. The outflow from 76 reservoirs in the midwestern USA, was sampled four times in 1992 and four times in 1993. At least one herbicide was detected in 82.6 percent of all samples, and atrazine was detected in 82.1 percent of all samples. Herbicide properties; topography, land use, herbicide use, and soil type in the contributing drainage area; residence time of water in reservoirs; and timing of inflow, release, and rainfall all can affect the concentration of herbicides in reservoirs. A GIS was used to quantify characteristics of land use, agricultural chemical use, climatic conditions, topographic character, and soil type by reservoir drainage basins. Multiple linear and logistic regression equations were used to model mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow as a function of these characteristics. Results demonstrate a strong association between mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow and herbicide use rates within associated drainage basins. Results also demonstrate the importance of including soils and basin hydrologic characteristics in models used to estimate mean herbicide concentrations.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2003

The life and scientific contributions of Lyman J. Briggs

Lyman J. Briggs (1874–1963), an early twentieth century physicist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), made many significant contributions to our understanding of soil-water and plant-water interactions. He began his career at the Bureau of Soils (BOS) in 1896. At age 23, Briggs published (1897) a description of the roles of surface tension and gravity in determining the state of static soil moisture. Concepts he presented remain central to this subject more than 100 yr later. With J.W. McLane, Briggs developed the “moisture equivalent” concept (a precursor to the idea of field capacity) and a centrifuge apparatus for measuring it. Briggs left the BOS at the end of 1905, under pressure from Milton Whitney, and moved to the Bureau of Plant Industry. Briggs' multi-state experiments with H.L. Shantz on water-use efficiencies showed that in a climate like that of the Great Plains, plants use water more productively in the cooler north than in the warmer south. In 1920, he moved from the USDA to the National Bureau of Standards (NBS), rising to Director in 1933. Among his other contributions to the American scientific community was his leadership, beginning in 1939, of a top secret committee that evolved into the Manhattan Project to develop an atomic bomb during World War II. A life-long baseball fan, Briggs at age 84, studied the speed, spin, and deflection of the curve ball, aided by manager Cookie Lavagetto and the pitching staff of the Washington Senators; he published these findings in a paper in the American Journal of Physics in 1959.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

USGS2016

Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2020

Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States

Pacific Lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) are a native anadromous species that, like salmon, historically returned to spawn in large numbers in watersheds along the west coast of the United States (U.S.). Lamprey play a vital role in river ecosystems and are one of the oldest vertebrates that have persisted over time likely influencing the evolution of many aquatic species. Pacific Lamprey have declined in abundance and are restricted in distribution throughout Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. A key uncertainty influencing Pacific Lamprey status is the impact of climate change. We modified the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to accommodate climate predictions from the International Panel on Climate Change. Using downscaled information, we characterized changes in 15 rivers occupied by Pacific Lamprey in the western U.S. We evaluated this risk under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for two time periods (mid-century 2040–2069 and end-century 2070–2099). The CCVI scores generally increased when going from RCP 4.5 to RCP 8.5 in three Global Climate Models for both mid-century and end-century, which our analyses forecasts degraded stream temperature and hydrologic conditions under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The geographically assessed results suggest that climate change impacts to Pacific Lamprey vulnerability are magnified in highly altered rivers. If we continue to observe greenhouse gas emission levels associated with the RCP 8.5, Pacific Lamprey will be at greater risk to climate change impacts. In order to mitigate the risk from climate change toward the end of the century, additional actions will need to be prioritized to rapidly reduce the impact of these threats such as increasing flow, creating backwater habitat, restoring riparian vegetation and reducing stream disturbances. The findings revealed the patterns of vulnerability for Pacific Lamprey across their U.S. range are informative for prioritizing river restoration actions when paired with regional implementation plans.

California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho↗

USGS2016

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2005

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

California↗

USGS1990

Thermal regime of permafrost in Alaska and predicted global warming

The mean surface temperature of permafrost in Alaska has warmed locally as much as 4° C during the last century although some areas show little or no indication of a warming or cooling. There is evidence for a recent cooling, since 1983, south of Prudhoe Bay to the Brooks Range. South of the Yukon River drainage and on the south side of the Seward Peninsula, permafrost temperatures are generally within a few degree's of thawing. There is a general consensus among scientists for a climatic warming of several degrees in surface air temperatures by the middle of the next century. If this warming occurs, there will be widespread thawing of the permafrost south of the Yukon River drainage and on the south side of the Seward Peninsula in Alaska. In general, thawing of warm discontinuous permafrost would also be expected in other areas of the polar regions. This potential thawing of the permafrost could create severe environmental and engineering problems.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Flood of January 1997 in the Carson River Basin, California and Nevada

Northern California and western Nevada were devastated by floods during January 1-3, 1997. Flood waters in the Carson River Basin (fig. 1) contributed to $55 million in projected damages in Douglas County and $19.5 million in Lyon County (Reno Gazette-Journal, 1997). Flooding in Douglas and Lyon Counties was extensive along the levee and irrigation systems, and agricultural land. In Carson City, damage to public facilities was estimated at $6.4 million (Reno Gazette-Journal, 1997). In late December 1996, storms built up a large snowpack (more than 180 percent of normal) in the higher altitudes of the Sierra Nevada (Daniel Greenlee, Natural Resource Conservation Service, oral commun., 1997) and also covered the valleys along the eastern Sierra Nevada. Then, a subtropical storm system originating in the central Pacific Ocean near the Hawaiian Islands brought heavy, unseasonably warm rain to the Sierra Nevada from December 30, 1996, through January 2, 1997. During this period, the Natural Resource Conservation Service recorded 16.4 inches (provisional data; Daniel Greenlee, oral commun., 1997) of precipitation at Ebbetts Pass, Calif. (8,700 feet above sea level), and the National Weather Service recorded 3.5 inches (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center, written commun., 1997) at Minden (4,710 feet above sea level). Rain falling below about 10,000 feet depleted about 20 percent of the high-altitude snowpack and melted about 80 percent of the snowpack below about 7,000 feet.

California;Nevada↗

USGS2016

Climate change and dissolved organic carbon export to the Gulf of Maine

Ongoing climate change is affecting the concentration, export (flux), and timing of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exported to the Gulf of Maine (GoM) through changes in hydrologic regime. DOC export was calculated for water years 1950 through 2013 for 20 rivers and for water years 1930 through 2013 for 14 rivers draining to the GoM. DOC export was also estimated for the 21st century based on climate and hydrologic modeling in a previously published study. DOC export was calculated by using the regression model LOADEST to fit seasonally adjusted concentration discharge (C-Q) relations. Our results are an analysis of the sensitivity of DOC export to changes in hydrologic conditions over time since land cover and vegetation were held constant over time. Despite large interannual variability, all rivers had increasing DOC export during winter and these trends were significant ( p < 0.05) in 10 out of 20 rivers for 1950 to 2013 and in 13 out of 14 rivers for 1930 to 2013. All rivers also had increasing annual export of DOC although fewer trends were statistically significant than for winter export. Projections for DOC export during the 21st century were variable depending on the climate model and greenhouse gas emission scenario that affected future river discharge through effects on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The most consistent result was a significant increase in DOC export in winter in all model-by-emission scenarios. DOC export was projected to decrease during the summer in all model-by-emission scenarios, with statistically significant decreases in half of the scenarios.

Maine↗

USGS2012

A remote sensing approach for estimating the location and rate of urban irrigation in semi-arid climates

Urban irrigation is an important component of the hydrologic cycle in many areas of the arid and semiarid western United States. This paper describes a new approach that uses readily available datasets to estimate the location and rate of urban irrigation. The approach provides a repeatable methodology at 1/3 km 2 resolution across a large urbanized area (500 km 2 ). For this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, air photos, climatic records, and a land-use map were used to: (1) identify the fraction of irrigated landscaping in urban areas, and (2) estimate the monthly rate of irrigation being applied to those areas. The area chosen for this study was the San Fernando Valley in Southern California. Identifying irrigated areas involved the use of 29 satellite images, air photos, and a land-use map. The fraction of a pixel that consists of irrigated landscaping (F irr ) was estimated using a linear-mixture model of two land-cover endmembers (selected pixels within a satellite image that represent a targeted land-cover). The two endmembers were impervious and fully-irrigated landscaping. In the San Fernando Valley, we used airport buildings, runways, and pavement to represent the impervious endmember; golf courses and parks were used to represent the fully irrigated endmember. The average F irr using all 29 satellite scenes was 44%. F irr calculated from hand-digitizing using air photos for 13 randomly selected single-family-residential neighborhoods showed similar results (42%). Estimating the rate of irrigation required identification of a third endmember: areas that consisted of urban vegetation but were not irrigated. This "nonirrigated" endmember was used to compute a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) surplus, defined as the difference between the NDVI signals of the irrigated and nonirrigated endmembers. The NDVI signals from irrigated areas remains relatively constant throughout the year, whereas the signal from nonirrigated areas rises and falls seasonally due to precipitation. The areas between airport runways were chosen to represent the nonirrigated endmember. Water-delivery records from 65 spatially-distributed single-family neighborhoods, consisting of nearly 1800 homes, were correlated with the NDVI surplus. The results show a strong exponential correlation ( r 2 = 0.94). In the absence of water-delivery records, which can be difficult to obtain, a surrogate was identified: the landscape evapotranspiration rate (ET L ). ET L was used to scale NDVI surplus (which is dimensionless) to irrigation rates using an exponential scaling function. The monthly irrigation rates calculated from satellite and climatic data compared well with irrigation rates calculated from actual water-delivery data using a paired Wilcoxan signed-rank test ( p = 0.0063). Identification of F irr at the pixel scale, along with identification of the irrigation rate for a fully-irrigated pixel, allows for mapping of urban irrigation over large areas. Maps showing the location and rate of monthly irrigation for the San Fernando study area were computed for January and August 1997.

California↗

USGS1999

Stratigraphic constraints on the timing and emplacement of the Alika 2 giant Hawaiian submarine landslide

Previous work has found evidence for giant tsunami waves that impacted the coasts of Lanai, Molokai and other southern Hawaiian Islands, tentatively dated at 100 + and 200 + ka by U-series methods on uplifted coral clasts. Seafloor imaging and related work off Hawaii Island has suggested the Alika phase 2 debris avalanche as the source of the ~ 100 ka "giant wave deposits", although its precise age has been elusive. More recently, a basaltic sand bed in ODP site 842 (~ 300 km west of Hawaii) estimated at 100 ?? 20 ka has been suggested to correlate with this or another large Hawaiian landslide. Our approach to the timing and linkage of giant submarine landslides and paleo-tsunami deposits is a detailed stratigraphic survey of pelagic deposits proximal to the landslide feature, beginning with a suite of seven piston, gravity and box cores collected in the vicinity of the Alika 2 slide. We used U-series dating techniques, including excess 230 Th and 210 Pb profiling, high-resolution paleomagnetic stratigraphy, including continuous, U-channel analysis, δ 18 O stratigraphy, visual and X-ray sediment lithology, and the petrology and geochemistry of the included turbidites and ash layers. Minimum ages for the Alika phase 2a slide from detailed investigation of two of the cores are 112 ± 15 ka and 125 ± 24 ka (2σ) based on excess 230 Th dating. A less precise age for the Alika phase 1 and/or South Kona slide is 242 ± 80 ka (2σ), consistent with previous geological estimates. Oxygen isotope analyses of entrained planktonic foraminifera better constrain the Alika phase 2a maximum age at 127 ± 5 ka, which corresponds to the beginning of the stage 5e interglacial period. It is proposed that triggering of these giant landslides may be related to climate change when wetter periods increase the possibility of groundwater intrusion and consequent phreatomagmatic eruptions of shallow magma chambers. Our study indicates the contemporaneity of the Alika giant submarine landslides and distal deposits from enormous turbidity currents as well as coral clasts reported to be tsunami deposits on Lanai and Molokai through direct dating and compositional analysis of the landslide deposits.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2003

A macroscopic approach to glacier dynamics

A simple approach to glacier dynamics is explored in which there is postulated to be a relationship between area and volume with three parameters: the time for area to respond to changes in volume, a thickness scale, and an area characterizing the condition of the initial state. This approach gives a good fit to the measurements of cumulative balance and area on South Cascade Glacier from 1970-97; the area time-scale is roughly 8 years, the thickness scale about 123 m, and the 1970 area roughly 4% larger than required for adjustment with volume. Combining this relationship with a version of mass continuity expressed in terms of area and volume produces a theory of glacier area and volume response to climate in which another time constant, the volume time-scale, appears. Area and volume both respond like a damped spring and mass system. The damping of the South Cascade response is approximately critical, and the volume time-scale is roughly 48 years, six times the area time-scale. The critically damped spring and mass analogy reproduces the time dependence predicted by the more complicated traditional theory of Nye.

Journal of Glaciology↗

USGS2011

Status and trend of the Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Glacier Bay, Alaska

We conducted standardized surveys for marine birds in Glacier Bay in seven years between 1991 and 2008. From our most recent survey, a combination of line- and strip-transect methods completed in 2008, we estimated that 4981 (95% CI 1293–8670) Kittlitz’s Murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris resided in Glacier Bay during the month of June, together with 12 195 (5607–18 783) Marbled Murrelets B. marmoratus . When counts were prorated to assign unidentified Brachyramphus murrelets to species, population estimates increased to 5641 Kittlitz’s Murrelets and 13 810 Marbled Murrelets. Our surveys of bird numbers in Glacier Bay between 1991 and 2008 revealed that Kittlitz’s Murrelet declined by ≥85% during this period. Trend analysis suggested a rate of decline between -10.7% and -14.4% per year. No direct human impacts (e.g., bycatch, oil pollution, vessel disturbance) in our study area could fully account for a decline of this magnitude. Widespread declines of Brachyramphus murrelets and Harbor Seals Phoca vitulina in the Gulf of Alaska during the 1980s-1990s suggest large-scale influences on these marine predators, perhaps related to climate-mediated cycles in food supply. Other natural factors that may impact Glacier Bay populations include predation by avian and terrestrial predators, widespread glacial retreat and its effect on nesting and foraging habitats, and competition for food with marine predators whose abundance in Glacier Bay has increased markedly in recent years (Humpback Whales Megaptera novaeangliae and Steller Sea Lions Eumetopias jubatus ).

Alaska↗