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Sundial: A method for inferring image acquisition time from shadow orientation

Aerial photography and satellite imagery can be used to characterize landscape change over time and help to understand how these changes are related to climate and hydrology. Publicly available optical imagery from sources such as the United States National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) is particularly valuable in this context due to its high temporal and spatial resolution. However, the exact time an image was acquired is often unknown, which complicates, if not precludes, linking images with other types of high temporal resolution data, such as streamflow records. In this letter, we propose a ‘sundial method’ to infer image acquisition time from shadow orientation. This approach involves measuring the direction of a shadow on the image and using solar geometry calculated for the known image date and location to infer the former sun position. Time estimates for 16 Worldview satellite and six NAIP aerial images based on 407 independent measurements of shadow orientation demonstrate the sundial method had an error of 2.1 ± 3.4 min, indicating that image acquisition times can be inferred with a high degree of accuracy and precision. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the method across different object types, shadow lengths, and solar zenith angles, while also providing practical guidelines regarding the number of measurements required and errors associated with uncertainty in the image date.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗

Program activities of the U.S. Geological Survey

The mission of the Geological Survey is to collect, organize, interpret, and publish information about the nation's energy, minerals, water, and land resources; and to determine the geologic structure of the United States and develop an understanding of earth processes and hydrologic principles.

Monograph↗

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic carbon dioxide storage

In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The first year of that activity was specified for development of a methodology to estimate storage potential that could be applied uniformly to geologic formations across the United States. After its release, the methodology was to receive public comment and external expert review. An initial methodology was developed and published in March 2009 (Burruss and others, 2009), and public comments were received. The report was then sent to a panel of experts for external review. The external review report was received by the USGS in December 2009. This report is in response to those external comments and reviews and describes how the previous assessment methodology (Burruss and others, 2009) was revised. The resource that is assessed is the technically accessible storage resource, which is defined as the mass of CO 2 that can be stored in the pore volume of a storage formation. The methodology that is presented in this report is intended to be used for assessments at scales ranging from regional to subbasinal in which storage assessment units are defined on the basis of common geologic and hydrologic characteristics. The methodology does not apply to site-specific evaluation of storage resources or capacity.

Open-File Report↗

Ground-water quality in three urban areas in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, 1995

Ground-water quality is generally good in three urban areas studied in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States涌cala and Tampa, Florida, and Virginia Beach, Virginia. The hydrology of these areas differs in that Ocala has many karst depressions but virtually no surface-water features, and Tampa and Virginia Beach have numerous surface-water features, including small lakes, streams, and swamps. Samples were collected in early 1995 from 15 wells in Ocala (8 in the surficial aquifer and 7 in the Upper Floridan aquifer), 17 wells in Tampa (8 in the surficial aquifer and 9 in the Upper Floridan aquifer), and in the summer of 1995 from 15 wells in Virginia Beach (all in the surficial aquifer). In the surficial aquifer in Ocala, the major ion water type was calcium bicarbonate in five samples and mixed (no dominant ions) in three samples, with dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from 78 to 463 milligrams per liter. In Tampa, the water type was calcium bicarbonate in one sample and mixed in seven samples, with dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from 38 to 397 milligrams per liter. In Virginia Beach, water types were primarily calcium and sodium bicarbonate water, with dissolved-solids concentrations ranging from 89 to 740 milligrams per liter. The water types and dissolved-solids concentrations reflect the presence of carbonates in the surficial aquifer materials in the Ocala and Virginia Beach areas. The major ion water type was calcium bicarbonate for all 16 samples from the upper Floridan aquifer in both Florida cities. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 210 to 551 milligrams per liter in Ocala, with a median of 287 milligrams per liter, and from 187 to 362 milligrams per liter in Tampa, with a median of 244 milligrams per liter. Concentrations of nitrate nitrogen were highest in the surficial aquifer in Ocala, and one sample ex-ceeded 10 milligrams per liter, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level for drinking water. Median nitrate concentrations were 1.2 milligrams per liter in Ocala and only 0.06 and 0.05 milligram per liter in Tampa and Virginia Beach, respectively. In Florida, some background water-quality data were available for comparison. The median nitrate concentration in Ocala was much higher than the median nitrate concentration of 0.05 milligram per liter in the background data. Median nitrate concentrations were 0.33 and 0.05 milligram per liter in samples from the Upper Floridan aquifer in Ocala and Tampa, respectively, and 0.05 milligram per liter in background samples. Of the 47 pesticides and 60 volatile organic compounds analyzed, only five pesticides and five volatile organic compounds were detected. The most commonly detected pesticide was prometon, a broad-scale herbicide, detected in samples from eight wells in Ocala (at concentrations ranging from 0.009 to 1.8 micrograms per liter), three wells in Virginia Beach (at concentrations ranging from 0.19 to 10 micrograms per liter), and from one well in Tampa (0.01 microgram per liter). The most commonly detected volatile organic compound was chloroform, which was d etected four times at concentrations ranging from 0.3 to 2.2 micrograms per liter in Ocala and Tampa. Seven volatile organic compounds were detected in one sample in Virginia Beach; most were compounds associated with petroleum and coal tar.

southeastern United States↗

Hydrogeology of the upper Floridan Aquifer in the vicinity of the Marine Corps Logistics Base near Albany, Georgia

In 1995, the U.S. Navy requested that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an investigation to describe the hydrogeology of the Upper Floridan aquifer in the vicinity of the Marine Corps Logistics Base, southeast and adjacent to Albany, Georgia. The study area encompasses about 90 square miles in the Dougherty Plain District of the Coastal Plain physiographic province, in Dougherty and Worth Counties-the Marine Corps Logistics Base encompasses about 3,600 acres in the central part of the study area. The Upper Floridan aquifer is the shallowest, most widely used source of drinking water for domestic use in the Albany area. The hydrogeologic framework of this aquifer was delineated by description of the geologic and hydrogeologic units that compose the aquifer; evaluation of the lithologic and hydrologic heterogeneity of the aquifer; comparison of the geologic and hydrogeologic setting beneath the base with those of the surrounding area; and determination of ground-water-flow directions, and vertical hydraulic conductivities and gradients in the aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer is composed of the Suwannee Limestone and Ocala Limestone and is divided into an upper and lower water-bearing zone. The aquifer is confined below by the Lisbon Formation and is semi-confined above by a low-permeability clay layer in the undifferentiated overburden. The thickness of the aquifer ranges from about 165 feet in the northeastern part of the study area, to about 325 feet in the southeastern part of the study area. Based on slug tests conducted by a U.S. Navy contractor, the upper water-bearing zone has low horizontal hydraulic conductivity (0.0224 to 2.07 feet per day) and a low vertical hydraulic conductivity (0.0000227 to 0.510 feet per day); the lower water-bearing zone has a horizontal hydraulic conductivity that ranges from 0.0134 to 2.95 feet per day. Water-level hydrographs of continuously monitored wells on the Marine Corps Logistics Base show excellent correlation between ground-water level and stage of the Flint River. Ground-water-flow direction in the southwestern part of the base generally is southeast to northwest; whereas, in the northeastern part of the base, flow directions generally are east to west, as well as from west to east, thus creating a ground-water low. Ground-water flow in the larger study area generally is east to west towards the Flint River, with a major ground-water-flow path existing from the Pelham Escarpment to the Flint River and a seasonal cone of depression the size of which is dependent upon the magnitude of irrigation pumping during the summer months. Calculated vertical hydraulic gradients (based upon data from 11 well-cluster sites on the Marine Corps Logistics Base) range from 0.0016 to 0.1770 foot per foot, and generally are highest in the central and eastern parts of the base. The vertical gradient is downward at all well-cluster sites.

Georgia↗

Evaluation of catchment delineation methods for the medium-resolution National Hydrography Dataset

Different methods for determining catchments (incremental drainage areas) for stream segments of the medium-resolution (1:100,000-scale) National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The NHD is a comprehensive set of digital spatial data that contains information about surface-water features (such as lakes, ponds, streams, and rivers) of the United States. The need for NHD catchments was driven primarily by the goal to estimate NHD streamflow and velocity to support water-quality modeling. The application of catchments for this purpose also demonstrates the broader value of NHD catchments for supporting landscape characterization and analysis. Five catchment delineation methods were evaluated. Four of the methods use topographic information for the delineation of the NHD catchments. These methods include the Raster Seeding Method; two variants of a method first used in a USGS New England study-one used the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD) and the other did not-termed the 'New England Methods'; and the Outlet Matching Method. For these topographically based methods, the elevation data source was the 30-meter (m) resolution National Elevation Dataset (NED), as this was the highest resolution available for the conterminous United States and Hawaii. The fifth method evaluated, the Thiessen Polygon Method, uses distance to the nearest NHD stream segments to determine catchment boundaries. Catchments were generated using each method for NHD stream segments within six hydrologically and geographically distinct Subbasins to evaluate the applicability of the method across the United States. The five methods were evaluated by comparing the resulting catchments with the boundaries and the computed area measurements available from several verification datasets that were developed independently using manual methods. The results of the evaluation indicated that the two New England Methods provided the most accurate catchment boundaries. The New England Method with the WBD provided the most accurate results. The time and cost to implement and apply these automated methods were also considered in ultimately selecting the methods used to produce NHD catchments for the conterminous United States and Hawaii. This study was conducted by a joint USGS-USEPA team during the 2-year period that ended in September 2004. During the following 2-year period ending in the fall of 2006, the New England Methods were used to produce NHD catchments as part of a multiagency effort to generate the NHD streamflow and velocity estimates for a suite of integrated geospatial products known as 'NHDPlus.'

New England↗

Hydrogeologic units, contour maps, and cross sections of the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers, northeastern Oklahoma, 2020

The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (or their equivalents) are the main sources of fresh groundwater in northeastern Oklahoma. Projected total water demand of both surface water and groundwater in northeastern Oklahoma is expected to increase approximately 56 percent from 2010 to 2060. This report provides an overview of the hydrogeology of northeastern Oklahoma, with an emphasis on the hydrogeologic units composing and surrounding the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (the Western Interior Plains confining unit, the Boone aquifer, the Ozark confining unit, and the Roubidoux aquifer). This report also provides the hydrogeologic framework for an ongoing (as of 2020) hydrologic investigation to aid the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in determining the maximum annual yields of the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. As a first step of this ongoing hydrologic investigation, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, developed hydrogeologic-unit maps, contour maps for the bases of the four hydrogeologic units, and generalized cross sections to further characterize the hydrogeologic framework of the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. The contour maps illustrate the altitudes of the bases of each hydrogeologic unit. The altitude of the base of the Western Interior Plains confining unit ranged from 1,316 to −6,437 feet (ft) relative to North American Vertical Datum of 1988. The altitude of the base of the Boone aquifer ranged from 1,327 to −6,681 ft. The altitude of the base of the Ozark confining unit ranged from 1,275 to −6,720 ft. The altitude of the base of the Roubidoux aquifer ranged from 403 to −9,488 ft.

Oklahoma↗

Assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey began a multiyear regional assessment of groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain (NACP) aquifer system in 2010 as part of its ongoing regional assessments of groundwater availability of the principal aquifers of the Nation. The goals of this national assessment are to document effects of human activities on water levels and groundwater storage, explore climate variability effects on the regional water budget, and provide consistent and integrated information that is useful to those who use and manage the groundwater resource. As part of this nationwide assessment, the USGS evaluated available groundwater resources within the NACP aquifer system from Long Island, New York, to northeastern North Carolina. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province depends heavily on groundwater to meet agricultural, industrial, and municipal needs. The groundwater assessment of the NACP aquifer system included an evaluation of how water use has changed over time; this evaluation primarily used groundwater budgets and development of a numerical modeling tool to assess system responses to stresses from future human uses and climate trends. This assessment focused on multiple spatial and temporal scales to examine changes in groundwater pumping, storage, and water levels. The regional scale provides a broad view of the sources and demands on the system with time. The sub-regional scale provides an evaluation of the differing response of the aquifer system across geographic areas allowing for closer examination of the interaction between different aquifers and confining units and the changes in these interactions under pumping and recharge conditions in 2013 and hydrologic stresses as much as 45 years in the future. By focusing on multiple scales, water-resource managers may utilize this study to understand system response to changes as they affect the system as a whole. The NACP aquifer system extends from Long Island to northeastern North Carolina, and includes aquifers primarily within New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province forms a complex groundwater system. Although the NACP aquifer system is recognized by the U.S. Geological Survey as one of the smallest of the 66 principal aquifer systems in the Nation, it ranks 13th overall in terms of total groundwater withdrawals and is 7th in population served. Despite abundant precipitation [about 45 inches per year (in/yr)], the supply of fresh surface water in this region is limited because many of the surface waters in this area are brackish estuaries, contributing to why many communities in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province rely heavily on groundwater to meet their water needs. Increases in population and changes in land use during the past 100 years have resulted in diverse increased demands for freshwater throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province with groundwater serving as a vital source of drinking water for the nearly 20 million people who live in the region. Total groundwater withdrawal in 2013 was estimated to be about 1,300 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) and accounts for about 40 percent of the drinking water supply with the densely populated areas tending to have the highest rates of withdrawals and, therefore, being most susceptible to effects from these withdrawals over time. Water levels in many of the confined aquifers are decreasing by as much as 2 feet per year (ft/yr) in response to extensive development and subsequent increased withdrawals throughout the region. Total water-level decreases (drawdowns) are more than 100 feet (ft) in some aquifers from their predevelopment (before 1900) levels. These drawdowns extend across state lines and under the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays, creating the potential for interstate aquifer management issues. Regional water-resources managers in the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province face challenges beyond competing local domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands for water. Large changes in regional water use have made the State-level management of aquifer resources more difficult because of hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries. The northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province is underlain by a wedge of unconsolidated to partially consolidated sediments that are typically thousands of feet thick along the coastline with a maximum thickness of about 10,000 ft near the edge of the continental shelf. The NACP aquifer system consists of nine confined aquifers and nine confining units capped by an unconfined surficial aquifer that is bounded laterally from the west by the contact between Coastal Plain sediments and the upland Piedmont bedrock. This aquifer system extends to the east to the limit of the Continental Shelf, however, the boundary between fresh and saline groundwater is considered to be much closer to the shoreline and varies vertically by aquifer. Precipitation over the region for average conditions from 2005 to 2009 is about 61,800 Mgal/d, but about 70 percent of it is lost to evapotranspiration resulting in an inflow of about 19,600 Mgal/d entering the groundwater system as aquifer recharge. Most of this recharge enters the aquifer system and flows through the shallow unconfined aquifer and either discharges to streams or directly to coastal waters without reaching the deep, confined aquifer system. In addition to recharge from precipitation, other sources of water include the return of wastewater from domestic septic systems of about 240 Mgal/d, about 60 Mgal/d of water released from storage in the confined system, and about 30 Mgal/d of lateral inflow at the boundary between freshwater and saltwater in response to pumping for conditions in 2013. The outflow needed to balance the inflows was subdivided between streamflow, discharge to tidal portions of streams, and coastal discharge. The hydrologic budget developed for current [2013] conditions determined that 93 percent of the total outflow was to surface waters with about 70 percent divided evenly between streamflow and shallow coastal discharge and 23 percent as discharge to tidal waters. The remaining 7 percent of the total outflow components include withdrawals from both the surficial and confined aquifers of the groundwater system. The groundwater availability assessment of the NACP aquifer system highlights the importance of analyses at both the regional and local scales to understand how changes in land use, water use, and climate have affected groundwater resources and how these resources may change in the future. The investigation included assessments of the regional changes in water levels and budgets across State lines, the importance of considering storage change in the confining units, the response of the aquifer system to a continuation of current [2013] hydrologic stresses into the future, and the potential effects of climate change and sea-level rise on the aquifer system. The Potomac aquifer group includes two of the most widely used aquifers in the NACP aquifer system, the Potomac-Patapsco and Potomac-Patuxent regional aquifers, providing about 24 percent of the total groundwater used in the region. Withdrawals from large pumping centers in this deep, confined aquifer group have resulted in substantial decreases in water-levels across state lines, particularly between southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina as well as between southern New Jersey and northern Delaware where water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer have decreased by as much as 200 ft and 50 ft, respectively from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. This response in water levels also is reflected in changes in water budgets where, for example, about 20 percent of the total response to pumping in Virginia is met by inducing flow from adjacent States. Understanding and quantifying these hydrologic effects that extend beyond State boundaries is critical for the State- and regional-level management of aquifer resources. The cumulative storage loss from the intervening confining units throughout the entire NACP aquifer system was about 35 percent of the total storage loss from predevelopment to current [2013] conditions. In geographic areas such as Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland, and New Jersey, the water released from storage in the confining units makes up the majority of the total storage release from the groundwater system and is becoming proportionally more important over time as the surficial aquifer approaches equilibrium with respect to pumping and recharge stresses as of 2013. Storage loss from the confining units is of particular concern because, unlike in the sands that comprise the confined aquifers, water removed from the clayey confining unit sediments cannot be replenished as these units gradually compress. This non-recoverable storage loss, if great enough, can result in land subsidence where these units are thick and the release from storage is relatively large and contributes to increased concerns for sea-level rise in areas such as the lower portion of the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater usage increased dramatically in the NACP aquifer system during post-World War II era from the mid-1940s to early the 1980s, with withdrawals increasing from about 400 Mgal/d to more than 1,300 Mgal/d. Although groundwater withdrawals have been relatively constant since the early 1980s, about half of the total groundwater withdrawn from the NACP aquifer system since 1900 was withdrawn in the past 30 years. An analysis of the response of the groundwater system to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping for an additional 30 years into the future shows that the flow system continues to adjust in terms of changes in water budget components, water levels, and the boundary between freshwater and saltwater as it approaches equilibrium. The largest change in water budget components is the reduction in the amount of water released from storage. Across the entire NACP aquifer system, the reduction of storage release from 7 to 4 percent of the total water budget change is accounted for by reductions in groundwater discharge to streams and coastal waters. Locally, a similar response is calculated for each of the geographic areas except for Virginia where the amount of water released from storage accounts for about 25 percent of the total change in water budget. This finding suggests that the groundwater flow system in Virginia is not approaching equilibrium under the current [2013] stresses and, therefore, water levels will continue to decrease even if the pumping remains constant. An analysis of the change in water levels in the Potomac-Patapsco aquifer as pumping is continued 30 years into the future reveals that the largest decreases in water levels throughout the NACP aquifer system will occur in the southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina parts of the study area. It is these areas that also see the greatest potential for increased lateral movement of saline groundwater in the deep, confined portion of the groundwater flow system in response to a continuation of the current [2013] pumping rates. The potential effects of long-term climate change and variability on the hydrologic system and availability of water resources in the NACP aquifer system continue to be of serious societal concern. These concerns include the effects of changes in aquifer recharge and in sea-level rise on the groundwater flow system. An assessment of the potential effects of a prolonged drought during current [2013] pumping conditions indicated that the reductions in recharge associated with droughts, including additional irrigation withdrawals required to meet increased crop water demand, have the greatest effects on water levels and streamflows in the surficial aquifer, and changes in water levels in the confined aquifers primarily resulted from the increased withdrawals associated with increased irrigation pumping; this response was most apparent in the Delmarva Peninsula. These results suggest that water levels may not be susceptible to the effects of droughts in the confined aquifers of the NACP aquifer system not used for irrigation, unlike in the unconfined surficial aquifer. A second analysis also was conducted to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system throughout the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province because recent analyses of the relative rates of sea-level rise along the Atlantic coast indicate that the Mid-Atlantic region represents a hot spot with anomalously higher rates of sea-level rise than observed elsewhere in the United States. Groundwater levels rose from 0 to 3 ft in response to a 3-ft simulated change in sea-level position, with the largest response occurring along the shoreline and away from non-tidal streams. About 37 percent (or 10,000 square miles) of the area of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience about a 0.5-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position, whereas about 18 percent (almost 5,000 square miles) of land of the northern Atlantic Coastal Plain physiographic province may experience a 2-ft or more increase in water levels with the 3-ft increase in sea-level position. These increases in the water table are of particular concern in low-lying areas where the unsaturated (vadose) zone is already thin, thus creating concerns for groundwater inundation of subsurface infrastructure, such as basements, septic systems, and subway systems. This increase in the water table also will likely alter the distribution of groundwater discharge to surface-water bodies thus increasing groundwater flow to streams that would have otherwise discharged directly to coastal waters. Throughout the NACP aquifer system, this redistribution of groundwater discharge results in an additional 2 percent of base flow in streams. Although the increases in groundwater discharge to streams (and corresponding decreases in discharge to coastal waters) calculated for the entire NACP aquifer system and its geographic areas represent only a small increase compared with current [2013] conditions, this redistribution of groundwater discharge from the coast to streams locally can alter the delivery of freshwater input to coastal receiving waters and have ecohydrological implications on the sensitive ecosystems which rely on a balance of groundwater discharge and surface-water flow.

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Ca↗

Probability distributions of hydraulic conductivity for the hydrogeologic units of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

The use of geologic information such as lithology and rock properties is important to constrain conceptual and numerical hydrogeologic models. This geologic information is difficult to apply explicitly to numerical modeling and analyses because it tends to be qualitative rather than quantitative. This study uses a compilation of hydraulic-conductivity measurements to derive estimates of the probability distributions for several hydrogeologic units within the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, a geologically and hydrologically complex region underlain by basin-fill sediments, volcanic, intrusive, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks. Probability distributions of hydraulic conductivity for general rock types have been studied previously; however, this study provides more detailed definition of hydrogeologic units based on lithostratigraphy, lithology, alteration, and fracturing and compares the probability distributions to the aquifer test data. Results suggest that these probability distributions can be used for studies involving, for example, numerical flow modeling, recharge, evapotranspiration, and rainfall runoff. These probability distributions can be used for such studies involving the hydrogeologic units in the region, as well as for similar rock types elsewhere. Within the study area, fracturing appears to have the greatest influence on the hydraulic conductivity of carbonate bedrock hydrogeologic units. Similar to earlier studies, we find that alteration and welding in the Tertiary volcanic rocks greatly influence hydraulic conductivity. As alteration increases, hydraulic conductivity tends to decrease. Increasing degrees of welding appears to increase hydraulic conductivity because welding increases the brittleness of the volcanic rocks, thus increasing the amount of fracturing.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Drought forecasting for streams and groundwaters in northeastern United States

Background When rainfall is lower than normal over an extended period, streamflows decline, groundwater levels fall, and hydrological drought can occur. Droughts can reduce the water available for societal needs, such as public and private drinking-water supplies, farming, and industry, and for ecological health, such as maintenance of water quality and natural ecosystems. Recent droughts in the northeastern United States have highlighted the need for new scientific tools to forecast the probability of future droughts so water managers and the public can be better prepared for these events when they happen. Two recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies provide tools that can forecast the probabilities of summer droughts for streams and the probabilities of groundwater-level declines below specified targets or thresholds. These tools provide promising methods for identifying and anticipating probable streamflow and groundwater droughts specific to the northeastern United States. USGS Water Science Centers in the northeastern United States have acted together to use these methods for numerous streamflow gages and groundwater-level monitoring wells, and to make the results of the analyses available on the world wide web. This fact sheet describes the drought forecasting techniques used in a study to predict droughts for streamflow and groundwater in the northeastern United States.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New H↗

National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. A basis for water-resource policy development

The concepts that are the basis for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program began forming in the early 1980's. By 1986, a pilot phase was initiated to test and refine assessment concepts and in 1991, the NAWQA program began a multi-year transition to a fully operational program. The goals of the program are to describe the status and trends in the quality of a large representative part of the Nation's ground- and surface-water resources and to develop an understanding of the natural and human factors affecting the quality of these resources. This information will provide a sound scientific basis upon which water resources decision making at all governmental levels can be based. To meet its goals, the program will integrate water-quality information at local, regional, and national scales. The program will be perennial and consist of two major components -- study-unit investigations and national assessment activities. Investigations of surface- and ground-water resources of major regional hydrologic systems (river basins and aquifer systems) each covering 1200 to about 60,000 square miles, will be conducted on a rotating basis for 60 study units located throughout the Nation. Key findings from these study-unit investigations will be used along with other information to provide issue-oriented water-quality assessments of regional and national interest.

Conference Paper↗

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport in the Tillamook Bay tributaries and Nehalem River basin, northwestern Oregon

This report summarizes a preliminary study of bed-material transport, vertical and lateral channel changes, and existing datasets for the Tillamook (drainage area 156 square kilometers [km 2 ]), Trask (451 km 2 ), Wilson (500 km 2 ), Kilchis (169 km 2 ), Miami (94 km 2 ), and Nehalem (2,207 km 2 ) Rivers along the northwestern Oregon coast. This study, conducted in coopera-tion with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Oregon Department of State Lands to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel mining, revealed that: Study areas along the six rivers can be divided into reaches based on tidal influence and topography. The fluvial (nontidal or dominated by riverine processes) reaches vary in length (2.4-9.3 kilometer [km]), gradient (0.0011-0.0075 meter of elevation change per meter of channel length [m/m]), and bed-material composition (a mixture of alluvium and intermittent bedrock outcrops to predominately alluvium). In fluvial reaches, unit bar area (square meter of bar area per meter of channel length [m 2 /m]) as mapped from 2009 photographs ranged from 7.1 m 2 /m on the Tillamook River to 27.9 m 2 /m on the Miami River. In tidal reaches, all six rivers flow over alluvial deposits, but have varying gradients (0.0001-0.0013 m/m) and lengths affected by tide (1.3-24.6 km). The Miami River has the steepest and shortest tidal reach and the Nehalem River has the flattest and longest tidal reach. Bars in the tidal reaches are generally composed of sand and mud. Unit bar area was greatest in the Tidal Nehalem Reach, where extensive mud flats flank the lower channel. Background factors such as valley and channel confinement, basin geology, channel slope, and tidal extent control the spatial variation in the accumulation and texture of bed material. Presently, the Upper Fluvial Wilson and Miami Reaches and Fluvial Nehalem Reach have the greatest abundance of gravel bars, likely owing to local bed-material sources in combination with decreasing channel gradient and valley confinement. Natural and human-caused disturbances such as mass movements, logging, fire, channel modifications for navigation and flood control, and gravel mining also have varying effects on channel condition, bed-material transport, and distribution and area of bars throughout the study areas and over time. Existing datasets include at least 16 and 18 sets of aerial and orthophotographs that were taken of the study areas in the Tillamook Bay tributary basins and Nehalem River basin, respectively, from 1939 to 2011. These photographs are available for future assessments of long-term changes in channel condition, bar area, and vegetation establishment patterns. High resolution Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) surveys acquired in 2007-2009 could support future quantitative analyses of channel morphology and bed-material transport in all study areas. A review of deposited and mined gravel volumes reported for instream gravel mining sites shows that bed-material deposition tends to rebuild mined bar surfaces in most years. Mean annual deposition volumes on individual bars exceeded 3,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) on Donaldson Bar on the Wilson River, Dill Bar on the Kilchis River, and Plant and Winslow Bars on the Nehalem River. Cumulative reported volumes of bed-material deposition were greatest at Donaldson and Dill Bars, totaling over 25,000 m 3 per site from 2004 to 2011. Within this period, reported cumulative mined volumes were greatest for the Donaldson, Plant, and Winslow Bars, ranging from 24,470 to 33,940 m 3 . Analysis of historical stage-streamflow data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Wilson River near Tillamook (14301500) and Nehalem River near Foss (14301000) shows that these rivers have episodically aggraded and incised, mostly following high flow events, but they do not exhibit systematic, long-term trends in bed elevation. Multiple cross sections show that channels near bridge crossings in all six study areas are dynamic with many subject to incision and aggradation as well as lateral shifts in thalweg position and bank deposition and erosion. In fluvial reaches, unit bar area declined a net 5.3-83.6 percent from 1939 to 2009. The documented reduction in bar area may be attributable to several factors, including vegetation establishment and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces, lateral channel changes and resulting alterations in sediment deposition and erosion patterns, and streamflow and/or tide differences between photographs. Other factors that may be associated with the observed reduction in bar area but not assessed in this reconnaissance level study include changes in the sediment and hydrology regimes of these rivers over the analysis period. In tidal reaches, unit bar area increased on the Tillamook and Nehalem Rivers (98.0 and 14.7 percent, respectively), but declined a net 24.2 to 83.1 percent in the other four tidal reaches. Net increases in bar area in the Tidal Tillamook and Nehalem Reaches were possibly attributable to tidal differences between the photographs as well as sediment deposition behind log booms and pile structures on the Tillamook River between 1939 and 1967. The armoring ratio (ratio of the median grain sizes of a bar's surface and subsurface layers) was 1.6 at Lower Waldron Bar on the Miami River, tentatively indicating a relative balance between transport capacity and sediment supply at this location. Armoring ratios, however, ranged from 2.4 to 5.5 at sites on the Trask, Wilson, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers; these coarse armor layers probably reflect limited bed-material supply at these sites. On the basis of mapping results, measured armoring ratios, and channel cross section surveys, preliminary conclusions are that the fluvial reaches on the Tillamook, Trask, Kilchis, and Nehalem Rivers are currently sediment supply-limited in terms of bed material - that is, the transport capacity of the channel generally exceeds the supply of bed material. The relation between transport capacity and sediment is more ambiguous for the fluvial reaches on the Wilson and Miami Rivers, but transport-limited conditions are likely for at least parts of these reaches. Some of these reaches have possibly evolved from sediment supply-limited to transport-limited over the last several decades in response to changing basin and climate conditions. Because of exceedingly low gradients, all the tidal reaches are transport-limited. Bed material in these reaches, however, is primarily sand and finer grain-size material and probably transported as suspended load from upstream reaches. These reaches will be most susceptible to watershed conditions affecting the supply and transport of fine sediment. Compared to basins on the southwestern Oregon coast, such as the Chetco and Rogue River basins, these six basins likely transport overall less gravel bed material. Although tentative in the absence of actual transport measurements, this conclusion is supported by the much lower area and frequency of bars and longer tidal reaches along all the northcoast rivers examined in this study. Previous studies suggest that the expansive and largely unvegetated bars visible in the 1939 photographs are primarily associated with voluminous sedimentation starting soon after the first Tillamook Burn fire in 1933. However, USGS studies of temporal bar trends in other Oregon coastal rivers unaffected by the Tillamook Burn show similar declines in bar area over approximately the same analysis period. In the Umpqua and Chetco River basins, historical declines in bar area are associated with long-term decreases in flood magnitude. Other factors may include changes in the type and volume of large wood and riparian vegetation. Further characterization of hydrology patterns in these basins and possible linkages with climate factors related to flood peaks, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could support inferences of expected future changes in vegetation establishment and channel planform and profile. More detailed investigations of bed-material transport rates and channel morphology would support assessments of lateral and vertical channel condition and longitudinal trends in bed material. Such assessments would be most practical for the fluvial study areas on the Wilson, Kilchis, Miami, and Nehalem Rivers and relevant to several ongoing management and ecological issues pertaining to sand and gravel transport. Tidal reaches may also be logical subjects for indepth analysis where studies would be more relevant to the deposition and transport of fine sediment (and associated channel and riparian conditions and processes) rather than coarse bed material.

Oregon↗

Preliminary hydrogeologic investigation of the Maxey Flats radioactive waste burial site, Fleming County, Kentucky

Burial trenches at the Maxey Flats radioactive waste burial site , Fleming County, Ky., cover an area of about 0.03 square mile, and are located on a plateau, about 300 to 400 feet above surrounding valleys. Although surface-water characteristics are known, little information is available regarding the ground-water hydrology of the Maxey Flats area. If transport of radionuclides from the burial site were to occur, water would probably be the principal mechanism of transport by natural means. Most base flow in streams around the burial site is from valley alluvium, and from the mantle of regolith, colluvium, and soil partially covering adjacent hills. Very little base flow is due to ground-water flow from bedrock. Most water in springs is from the mantle, rather than from bedrock. Rock units underlying the Maxey Flats area are, in descending order, the Nancy and Farmers Members of the Borden Formation, Sunbury, Bedford, and Ohio Shales, and upper part of the Crab Orchard Formation. These units are mostly shales, except for the Farmers Member, which is mostly sandstone. Total thickness of the rocks is about 320 feet. All radioactive wastes are buried in the Nancy Member. Most ground-water movement in bedrock probably occurs in fractures. The ground-water system at Maxey Flats is probably unconfined, and recharge occurs by (a) infiltration of rainfall into the mantle, and (b) vertical, unsaturated flow from the saturated regolith on hilltops to saturated zones in the Farmers Member and Ohio Shale. Data are insufficient to determine if saturated zones exist in other rock units. The upper part of the Crab Orchard Formation is probably a hydrologic boundary, with little ground-water flow through the formation. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Regression estimates for topological‐hydrograph input

Physiographic, hydrologic, and rainfall data from 18 small drainage basins in semiarid, central Wyoming were used to calibrate topological, unit‐hydrograph models for celerity, the average rate of travel of a flood wave through the basin. The data set consisted of basin characteristics and hydrologic data for the 18 basins and rainfall data for 68 storms. Calibrated values of celerity and peak discharges subsequently were regressed as a function of the basin characteristics and excess rainfall volume. Predicted values obtained in this way can be used as input for estimating hydrographs in ungaged basins. The regression models included ordinary least‐squares and seemingly unrelated regression. This latter regression model jointly estimated the celerity and peak discharge. The correlation between residuals of the celerity and peak‐discharge regressions was sufficiently large to de‐, crease the variances of estimated univariate‐model parameters.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

Controls on nitrogen flux in alpine/subalpine watersheds of Colorado

High‐altitude watersheds in the Front Range of Colorado show symptoms of advanced stages of nitrogen excess, despite having less nitrogen in atmospheric deposition than other regions where watersheds retain nitrogen. In two alpine/subalpine subbasins of the Loch Vale watershed, atmospheric deposition of NO 3 − plus NH 4 + was 3.2–5.5 kg N ha −1 , and watershed export was 1.8–3.9 kg N ha −1 for water years 1992–1997. Annual N export increased in years with greater input of N, but most of the additional N was retained in the watershed, indicating that parts of the ecosystem are nitrogen‐limited. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were greatest in subsurface water of talus landscapes, where mineralization and nitrification augment high rates of atmospheric deposition of N. Tundra landscapes had moderately high DIN concentrations, whereas forest and wetland landscapes had low concentrations, indicating little export of nitrogen from these landscapes. Between the two subbasins the catchment of Icy Brook had greater retention of nitrogen than that of Andrews Creek because of landscape and hydrologic characteristics that favor greater N assimilation in both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These results suggest that export of N from alpine/subalpine watersheds is caused by a combination of direct flushing of N from atmospheric deposition and release of N from ecosystem biogeochemical processes (N cycling). Sensitivity of alpine ecosystems in the western United States to atmospheric deposition of N is a function of landscape heterogeneity, hydrologic flow paths, and climatic extremes that limit primary productivity and microbial activity, which, in turn, control retention and release of nitrogen. Conceptual and mechanistic models of N excess that have been developed for forested ecosystems need to be modified in order to predict the response of alpine ecosystems to future changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of N.

Water Resources Research↗

Identifying climate-resistant vernal pools: Hydrologic refugia for amphibian reproduction under droughts and climate change

Vernal pools of the northeastern United States provide important breeding habitat for amphibians but may be sensitive to droughts and climate change. These seasonal wetlands typically fill by early spring and dry by mid-to-late summer. Because climate change may produce earlier and stronger growing-season evapotranspiration combined with increasing droughts and shifts in precipitation timing, management concerns include the possibility that some pools will increasingly become dry earlier in the year, potentially interfering with amphibian life-cycle completion. In this context, a subset of pools that continue to provide wetland habitat later into the year under relatively dry conditions might function as ecohydrologic refugia, potentially supporting species persistence even as summer conditions become warmer and droughts more frequent. We used approximately 3,000 field observations of inundation from 449 pools to train machine-learning models that predict the likelihood of pool inundation based on pool size, day of the year, climate conditions, short-term weather patterns, and soil, geologic, and landcover attributes. Models were then used to generate predictions of pool wetness across five seasonal time points, three short-term weather scenarios, and four sets of downscaled climate projections. Model outputs are available through a website allowing users to choose the inundation thresholds, time points, weather scenarios, and future climate projections most relevant to their management needs. Together with long-term monitoring of individual pools at the site scale, this regional-scale study can support amphibian conservation by helping to identify which pools may be most likely to function as ecohydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change.

Ecohydrology↗

United States Geological Survey: Programs in Utah

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been collecting hydrologic data relating to the occurrence, quantity, and quality of water resources in Utah since 1889. The USGS maintains a network of about 200 gaging stations on rivers, streams, lakes, and reservoirs in Utah and parts of Wyoming, Idaho, and Arizona and monitors about 1,100 wells throughout the State (fig. 1). Within this network, water-quality samples are collected at 15 surface-water sites and about 185 wells. Additional water-quality samples are collected throughout Utah as part of investigative studies in which the hydrology of specific areas is examined.

Utah↗

Estimating quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale for the conterminous United States

The quantitative estimation of the quick-flow runoff component of streamflow is required for many hydrologic applications. Estimation at the monthly timescale and national spatial scale would be particularly useful for national water availability modeling. This paper reviews a sample of commonly used equations for quick-flow runoff, including several currently in use in continental-scale models. The review shows the wide range of equation forms or heuristics currently in use to predict quick-flow runoff, the limited spatial scale over which these equations are often developed or calibrated, and the scarcity of well-tested equations available for quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale. Data were gathered from a set of 1301 gaged watersheds across the United States to test a range of equations from the literature, along with several alternative equations, to assess and compare their performance in predicting quick-flow runoff at the monthly timescale. The highest-performing equation was selected for application to monthly maps of explanatory variables to produce monthly quick-flow runoff water budget contribution maps. This equation is a regression against precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, surficial geology type, and slope data. Its application indicates that average quick-flow runoff across the conterminous United States in the winter exceeds that in the summer by up to a factor of three. The monthly maps were explored and evaluated for the timespan of 2000-2015. The comparison of equation forms and produced monthly maps will be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and monitoring applications.

Journal of Hydrology↗