SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Engineering Structures”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

USGS2008

WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1982

Earthquake engineering research program in Chile

Earthquake engineering research in Chile has been carried out for more than 30 years. Systematic research is done at the university of Chile in Santiago. Other universities such as the Catholic University, university of Concepcion, and the Federico Santa Maria Technical University have begun to teach and conduct research in earthquake engineering in recent years. The fields of research at the University of Chile include the following: Theoretical and empirical characterization of strong round motion. Installation of strong-motion accelerographs. Capacity of strong ground motion to produce structural damage. Seismic risk. Seismic behavior of reinforced masonry houses and buildings. Seismic design of high-rise buildings. Soil dynamics with emphasis on soil liquefaction and soil stability.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2014

National requirements for improved elevation data

This report presents the results of surveys, structured interviews, and workshops conducted to identify key national requirements for improved elevation data for the United States and its territories, including coastlines. Organizations also identified and reported the expected economic benefits that would be realized if their requirements for improved elevation were met (appendixes 1–3). This report describes the data collection methodology and summarizes the findings. Participating organizations included 34 Federal agencies, 50 States and two territories, and a sampling of local governments, tribes, and nongovernmental orgnizations. The nongovernmental organizations included The Nature Conservancy and a sampling of private sector businesses. These data were collected in 2010-2011 as part of the National Enhanced Elevation Assessment (NEEA), a study to identify program alternatives for better meeting the Nation’s elevation data needs. NEEA tasks included the collection of national elevation requirements; analysis of the benefits and costs of meeting these requirements; assessment of emerging elevation technologies, lifecycle data management needs, and costs for managing and distributing a national-scale dataset and derived products; and candidate national elevation program alternatives that balance costs and benefits in meeting the Nation’s elevation requirements. The NEEA was sponsored by the National Digital Elevation Program (NDEP), a government coordination body with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as managing partner that includes the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), among the more than a dozen agencies and organizations. The term enhanced elevation data as used in this report refers broadly to three-dimensional measurements of land or submerged topography, built features, vegetation structure, and other landscape detail. Additional information about NEEA and its later use in the development of a 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) can be found at http://nationalmap.gov/3DEP/index.html.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Community structure of age-0 fishes in paired mainstem and created shallow-water habitats in the Lower Missouri River

Anthropogenic alterations to aquatic ecosystems have greatly reduced and homogenized riverine habitat, especially those used by larval and juvenile fishes. Creation of shallow-water habitats is used as a restoration technique in response to altered conditions in several studies globally, but only recently in the USA. In the summer of 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sampled larval and juvenile fishes at six paired sites (mainstem and constructed chute shallow-water habitats) along a section of the Missouri River between Rulo, NE and St. Louis, MO, USA. From those samples, we enumerated and identified a total of 7622 fishes representing 12 families. Community responses of fishes to created shallow-water habitats were assessed by comparisons of species richness and diversity measures between paired sites and among sampling events. Shannon entropy measures were transformed, and gamma diversity (total diversity) was partitioned into two components, alpha (within community) and beta (between community) diversity using a multiplicative decomposition method. Mantel test results suggest site location, time of sampling event and habitat type were drivers of larval and juvenile community structure. Paired t -test results indicated little to no differences in beta diversity between habitat types; however, chute habitats had significantly higher alpha and gamma diversity as well as increased abundances of Asian carp larvae when compared with mainstem shallow-water habitat. Our results not only show the importance of created shallow-water habitat in promoting stream fish diversity but also highlight the role space and time may play in future restoration and management efforts.

Missouri↗

USGS2009

Research on the middle-of-receiver-spread assumption of the MASW method

The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method has been effectively used to determine near-surface shear- (S-) wave velocity. Estimating the S-wave velocity profile from Rayleigh-wave measurements is straightforward. A three-step process is required to obtain S-wave velocity profiles: acquisition of a multiple number of multichannel records along a linear survey line by use of the roll-along mode, extraction of dispersion curves of Rayleigh waves, and inversion of dispersion curves for an S-wave velocity profile for each shot gather. A pseudo-2D S-wave velocity section can be generated by aligning 1D S-wave velocity models. In this process, it is very important to understand where the inverted 1D S-wave velocity profile should be located: the midpoint of each spread (a middle-of-receiver-spread assumption) or somewhere between the source and the last receiver. In other words, the extracted dispersion curve is determined by the geophysical structure within the geophone spread or strongly affected by the source geophysical structure. In this paper, dispersion curves of synthetic datasets and a real-world example are calculated by fixing the receiver spread and changing the source location. Results demonstrate that the dispersion curves are mainly determined by structures within a receiver spread. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗

USGS1986

Regional method to assess offshore slope stability.

The slope stability of some offshore environments can be evaluated by using only conventional acoustic profiling and short-core sampling, followed by laboratory consolidation and strength testing. The test results are synthesized by using normalized-parameter techniques. The normalized data are then used to calculate the critical earthquake acceleration factors or the wave heights needed to initiate failure. These process-related parameters provide a quantitative measure of the relative stability for locations from which short cores were obtained. The method is most applicable to offshore environments of gentle relief and simple subsurface structure and is not considered a substitute for subsequent site-specific analysis. -from ASCE Publications Information

Journal of Geotechnical Engineering↗

USGS2007

Construction aggregates

Construction aggregates, primarily stone, sand and gravel, are recovered from widespread naturally occurring mineral deposits and processed for use primarily in the construction industry. They are mined, crushed, sorted by size and sold loose or combined with portland cement or asphaltic cement to make concrete products to build roads, houses, buildings, and other structures. Much smaller quantities are used in agriculture, cement manufacture, chemical and metallurgical processes, glass production and many other products.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2024

Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: Data sources, models, and future prospects

Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Review of Geophysics↗

USGS2006

Watershed Data Management (WDM) Database for Salt Creek Streamflow Simulation, DuPage County, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with DuPage County Department of Engineering, Stormwater Management Division, maintains a database of hourly meteorologic and hydrologic data for use in a near real-time streamflow simulation system, which assists in the management and operation of reservoirs and other flood-control structures in the Salt Creek watershed in DuPage County, Illinois. The majority of the precipitation data are collected from a tipping-bucket rain-gage network located in and near DuPage County. The other meteorologic data (wind speed, solar radiation, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) are collected at Argonne National Laboratory in Argonne, Illinois. Potential evapotranspiration is computed from the meteorologic data. The hydrologic data (discharge and stage) are collected at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in DuPage County. These data are stored in a Watershed Data Management (WDM) database. This report describes a version of the WDM database that was quality-assured and quality-controlled annually to ensure the datasets were complete and accurate. This version of the WDM database contains data from January 1, 1997, through September 30, 2004, and is named SEP04.WDM. This report provides a record of time periods of poor data for each precipitation dataset and describes methods used to estimate the data for the periods when data were missing, flawed, or snowfall-affected. The precipitation dataset data-filling process was changed in 2001, and both processes are described. The other meteorologic and hydrologic datasets in the database are fully described in the annual U.S. Geological Survey Water Data Report for Illinois and, therefore, are described in less detail than the precipitation datasets in this report.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California

Introduction Located in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to better characterize the geology and earthquake hazards associated with the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and to help identify any evidence of active uplift on the faults bounding the Coast Ranges. Although the area immediately surrounding the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is sparsely populated, its southern segment presents a potential seismic hazard to northern California communities as far away as the San Francisco Bay region and Sacramento. There are also nearby water resources, mineral resources, and public lands used for public recreation. The Coast Ranges of northern California are a series of northwest-southeast-oriented mountain ranges and valleys located north of the San Francisco Bay region, between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Sacramento Valley to the east. The region has rugged terrain, high mountain peaks that reach more than 2,400 meters above sea level, isolated and narrow valley bottoms on which most human settlements are located, and large drainage systems that tend to follow the northwest-southeast-oriented topographic grain. The physiographic character of the region is shaped by its bedrock geology, deformational history, and active faulting. The basement rocks of the northern Coast Ranges consist of the Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex, the latter of which consists of two informal units, the Coast Range ophiolite and the Great Valley sequence. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are in structural contact along the Coast Range Fault, a regional-scale structure and fundamental crustal boundary. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are superposed by active, northwest-southeast-striking strike-slip faults that are associated with seismicity swarms. These active strike-slip faults can produce moderate to large earthquakes that have moment magnitudes of 7–8. In places, these active structures bound large ranges and valleys, suggesting that much of the modern topographic expression is the result of active deformation processes. This report contains new 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone between Clear Lake and Lake Berryessa. The map area spans 738 square kilometers in northern Napa County, southern Lake County, and parts of Yolo and Colusa Counties. The south and east borders of the map are 90 kilometers north of San Francisco and 70 kilometers west of Sacramento, respectively. The map area is within the Knoxville mining district, which has a history of mercury and gold mining dating back to the mid-19th century. The two main towns in the region, Lower Lake and Clearlake, California, are west-northwest of the map area. Approximately 71,000 people live in the cities and rural communities located within a 40-kilometer radius of the center of the map area. The bedrock geology, cross sections, and structural data presented herein are critical for evaluating the long-term evolution of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone. This work will supplement studies on local seismic hazards, liquefaction potential, landslide hazards, earthquake geology, natural resources, groundwater resources, engineering geology, and tectonic history by providing the background information for site-specific investigations on these subjects.

California↗

USGS2015

Effects of oyster harvest activities on Louisiana reef habitat and resident nekton communities

Oysters are often cited as “ecosystem engineers” because they modify their environment. Coastal Louisiana contains extensive oyster reef areas that have been harvested for decades, and whether differences in habitat functions exist between those areas and nonharvested reefs is unclear. We compared reef physical structure and resident community metrics between these 2 subtidal reef types. Harvested reefs were more fragmented and had lower densities of live eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) and hooked mussels ( Ischadium recurvum ) than the nonharvested reefs. Stable isotope values ( 13 C and 15 N) of dominant nekton species and basal food sources were used to compare food web characteristics. Nonpelagic source contributions and trophic positions of dominant species were slightly elevated at harvested sites. Oyster harvesting appeared to have decreased the number of large oysters and to have increased the percentage of reefs that were nonliving by decreasing water column filtration and benthopelagic coupling. The differences in reef matrix composition, however, had little effect on resident nekton communities. Understanding the thresholds of reef habitat areas, the oyster density or oyster size distribution below which ecosystem services may be compromised, remains key to sustainable management.

Louisiana↗

USGS1996

Comparison of damping in buildings under low-amplitude and strong motions

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of damping values and other dynamic characteristics of five buildings using strong-motion and low-amplitude (ambient vibration) data. The strong-motion dynamic characteristics of five buildings within the San Francisco Bay area are extracted from recordings of the 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE). Ambient vibration response characteristics for the same five buildings were inferred using data collected in 1990 following LPE. Additional earthquake data other than LPE for one building and ambient vibration data collected before LPE for two other buildings provide additional confirmation of the results obtained. For each building, the percentages of critical damping and the corresponding fundamental periods determined from low-amplitude test data are appreciably lower than those determined from strong-motion recordings. These differences are attributed mainly to soil-structure interaction and other non-linear behavior affecting the structures during strong shaking. Significant contribution of radiation damping to the effective damping of a specific building is discussed in detail.

Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodyn↗

USGS1996

A composite phase diagram of structure H hydrates using Schreinemakers' geometric approach

A composite phase diagram is presented for Structure H (sH) clathrate hydrates, In this work, we derived the reactions occurring among the various phases along each four-phase (Ice/Liquid water, liquid hydrocarbon, vapor, and hydrate) equilibrium line. A powerful method (though seldom used in chemical engineering) for multicomponent equilibria developed by Schreinemakers is applied to determine the relative location of all quadruple (four-phase) lines emanating from three quintuple (five-phase) points. Experimental evidence validating the approximate phase diagram is also provided. The use of Schreinemakers' rules for the development of the phase diagram is novel for hydrates, but these rules may be extended to resolve the phase space of other more complex systems commonly encountered in chemical engineering.

Fluid Phase Equilibria↗

USGS2017

A computational fluid dynamics modeling study of guide walls for downstream fish passage

A partial-depth, impermeable guidance structure (or guide wall) for downstream fish passage is typically constructed as a series of panels attached to a floating boom and anchored across a water body (e.g. river channel, reservoir, or power canal). The downstream terminus of the wall is generally located nearby to a fish bypass structure. If guidance is successful, the fish will avoid entrainment in a dangerous intake structure (i.e. turbine intakes) while passing from the headpond to the tailwater of a hydroelectric facility through a safer passage route (i.e. the bypass). The goal of this study is to determine the combination of guide wall design parameters that will most likely increase the chance of surface-oriented fish being successfully guided to the bypass. To evaluate the flow field immediately upstream of a guide wall, a parameterized computational fluid dynamics model of an idealized power canal was constructed in © ANSYS Fluent v 14.5 (ANSYS Inc., 2012). The design parameters investigated were the angle and depth of the guide wall and the average approach velocity in the power canal. Results call attention to the importance of the downward to sweeping flow ratio and demonstrate how a change in guide wall depth and angle can affect this important hydraulic cue to out-migrating fish. The key findings indicate that a guide wall set at a small angle (15° is the minimum in this study) and deep enough such that sweeping flow dominant conditions prevail within the expected vertical distribution of fish approaching the structure will produce hydraulic conditions that are more likely to result in effective passage.

Ecological Engineering↗

USGS2020

Development of a global seismic risk model

Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2018

Bedrock geologic map of the Lisbon quadrangle, and parts of the Sugar Hill and East Haverhill quadrangles, Grafton County, New Hampshire

The bedrock geologic map of the Lisbon quadrangle, and parts of the Sugar Hill and East Haverhill quadrangles, Grafton County, New Hampshire, covers an area of approximately 73 square miles (189 square kilometers) in west-central New Hampshire. This map was created as part of a larger effort to produce a new bedrock geologic map of Vermont through the collection of field data at a scale of 1:24,000. A large part of the map area consists of the Bronson Hill anticlinorium, a post-Early Devonian structure that is cored by metamorphosed Cambrian to Devonian sedimentary, volcanic, and plutonic rocks. The Bronson Hill anticlinorium is the apex of the Middle Ordovician to earliest-Silurian Bronson Hill magmatic arc that contains the Ammonoosuc Volcanics, Partridge Formation, and Oliverian Plutonic Suite, and extends from Maine, through western New Hampshire (down the eastern side of the Connecticut River), through southern New England to Long Island Sound. The deformed and partially eroded arc is locally overlain by a relatively thin Silurian section of metasedimentary rocks (Clough Quartzite and Fitch Formation) that thickens to the east. The Silurian section near Littleton is disconformably overlain by a thicker, Lower Devonian section that includes mostly metasedimentary and minor metavolcanic rocks of the Littleton Formation. The Bronson Hill anticlinorium is bisected by a series of northeast-southwest trending Mesozoic normal faults. Primarily among them is the steeply northwest-dipping Ammonoosuc fault that divides older and younger units (lower and upper sections) of the Ammonoosuc Volcanics. The Ammonoosuc Volcanics are lithologically complex and predominantly include interlayered and interfingered rhyolitic to basaltic volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, as well as lesser amounts of slate, phyllite, ironstone, chert, sandstone, and pelite. The Albee Formation underlies the Ammonoosuc Volcanics and is predominantly composed of interbedded metamorphosed sandstone, siltstone, and phyllite. During the Late Ordovician, a series of arc-related plutons intruded the Ammonoosuc Volcanics including the Moody Ledge pluton and the Scrag granite of Billings (1937). Subsequent plutonism related to the Acadian orogeny occurred after volcanism and deposition resulted in the Littleton Formation during the Late Devonian, including the intrusion of the Haverhill pluton and French Pond Granite found in the southern part of the map. This report consists of a geologic map and an online geographic information systems database that includes contacts of bedrock geologic units, faults, outcrops, and structural geologic information. The geologic map is intended to serve as a foundation for applying geologic information to problems involving land use decisions, groundwater availability and quality, earth resources such as natural aggregate for construction, assessment of natural hazards, and engineering and environmental studies for waste disposal sites and construction projects.

New Hampshire↗

USGS2018

Bedrock geologic map of the Miles Pond and Concord quadrangles, Essex and Caledonia Counties, Vermont, and Grafton County, New Hampshire

The bedrock geologic map of the Miles Pond and Concord quadrangles covers an area of approximately 107 square miles (276 square kilometers) in east-central Vermont and adjacent New Hampshire, north of and along the Connecticut River. This map was created as part of a larger effort to produce a new bedrock geologic map of Vermont through the collection of field data at a scale of 1:24,000. The majority of the map area consists of the Bronson Hill anticlinorium, a post-Early Devonian structure that is cored by metamorphosed Cambrian to Silurian sedimentary, volcanic, and plutonic rocks. A major feature on the map is the Monroe fault, interpreted to be a west-directed, steeply dipping Late Devonian (Acadian) thrust fault. To the west of the Monroe fault, rocks of the Connecticut Valley-Gaspé trough dominate and consist primarily of metamorphosed Silurian and Devonian sedimentary rocks. To the north, the Victory pluton intrudes the Bronson Hill anticlinorium. The Bronson Hill anticlinorium consists of the metamorphosed Albee Formation, the Ammonoosuc Volcanics, the Comerford Intrusive Complex, the Highlandcroft Granodiorite, and the Joselin Turn tonalite. The Albee Formation is an interlayered, feldspathic metasandstone and pelite that is locally sulfidic. Much of the deformed metasandstone is tectonically pinstriped. In places, one can see compositional layering that was transposed by a steeply southeast-dipping foliation. The Ammonoosuc Volcanics are lithologically complex and predominantly include interlayered and interfingered rhyolitic to basaltic volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks, as well as lesser amounts of siltstone, phyllite, graywacke, and grit. The Comerford Intrusive Complex crops out east of the Monroe fault and consists of metamorphosed gabbro, diorite, tonalite, aplitic tonalite, and crosscutting diabase dikes. Abundant mafic dikes from the Comerford Intrusive Complex intruded the Albee Formation and Ammonoosuc Volcanics east of the Monroe fault. The Highlandcroft Granodiorite and Joslin Turn tonalite plutons intruded during the Middle to Late Ordovician. West of the Monroe fault, the Connecticut Valley-Gaspé trough consists of the Silurian and Devonian Waits River and Gile Mountain Formations. The Waits River Formation is a carbonaceous muscovite-biotite-quartz (±garnet) phyllite containing abundant beds of micaceous quartz-rich limestone. The Gile Mountain Formation consists of interlayered metasandstone and graphitic (and commonly sulfidic) slate, along with minor calcareous metasandstone and ironstone. Graded bedding is common in the Gile Mountain Formation. Rocks of the Devonian New Hampshire Plutonic Suite intruded as plutons, dikes, and sills. The largest of these is the Victory pluton, which consists of weakly foliated, biotite granite and granodiorite. The Victory pluton also intruded a large part of the Albee Formation to the north. This report consists of a geologic map and an online geographic information systems database that includes contacts of bedrock geologic units, faults, outcrops, and structural geologic information. The geologic map is intended to serve as a foundation for applying geologic information to problems involving land use decisions, groundwater availability and quality, earth resources such as natural aggregate for construction, assessment of natural hazards, and engineering and environmental studies for waste disposal sites and construction projects.

New Hampshire, Vermont↗

USGS2002

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level 1 , which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake. Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗