Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Ecological Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread, diverse communities of cyanobacteria, fungi, lichens, and mosses living on soil surfaces, primarily in drylands. Biocrusts can locally govern primary production, soil fertility, hydrology, and surface energy balance, with considerable variation in these functions across alternate community states. Further, these communities have been implicated in Earth system functioning via potential influences on global biogeochemistry and climate. Biocrusts are easily destroyed by disturbances and appear to be exceptionally vulnerable to warming temperatures and altered precipitation inputs, signaling possible losses of dryland functions with global change. Despite these concerns, we lack sufficient spatiotemporal data on biocrust function, cover, and community structure to confidently assess their ecological roles across the extensive dryland biome. Here, we present the case for cross-scale research and restoration efforts coupled with remote-sensing and modeling approaches that improve our collective understanding of biocrust responses to global change and the ecological roles of these diminutive communities at global scales.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands

The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for all islands in the U.S. Caribbean, a dry bias across Puerto Rico, and a wet bias on the windward side of mountains within the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these biases, model simulations show a robust drying pattern for all islands that is generally larger for Puerto Rico (25% annual rainfall reduction for some life zones) than the U.S. Virgin Islands (12% island average). The largest precipitation reductions are found during the more convectively active afternoon and evening hours. Within Puerto Rico, the model uncertainty increases for the wetter life zones, especially for precipitation. Across the life zones, both models project unprecedented maximum and minimum temperatures that may exceed 200 days annually above the historical baseline with only small changes to the frequency of extreme rainfall. By contrast, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is no consensus on the location of the largest drying relative to the windward and leeward side of the islands. However, the models project the largest increases in maximum temperature on the southern side of St. Croix and in higher elevations of St. Thomas and St. John.

Puerto Rico↗

Assessment of existing groundwater quality data in the Green-Duwamish watershed, Washington

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided technical support to the Washington Department of Ecology (Ecology) in their assessment of the role groundwater plays in contributing pollutant loading to the Green-Duwamish River near Seattle, Washington. Ecology is developing watershed hydrology models of the Green-Duwamish watershed, and need to assign realistic contaminant concentrations to the various Hydrologic Response Units represented in their models. The USGS compiled existing groundwater quality data in the Green-Duwamish watershed, and this report summarizes results and interpretation of the dataset, including identifying data gaps and needs for further research and monitoring. The sources of existing data were the USGS’s National Water Information System, Ecology’s Environmental Information Management System, and a compilation of several studies by Leidos, a scientific research company. The water-quality parameters of interest included polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) Aroclors and congeners, phthalates, carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (cPAHs), arsenic, copper, and zinc. Results were grouped into the four subwatersheds delineated in Ecology’s hydrology models: Duwamish, Lower Green, Soos, and Upper Green. Results from the Duwamish subwatershed were further sub-divided by the USGS into the Lower Duwamish, containing land adjacent to the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site, and the Upper Duwamish, containing the remaining area of the Duwamish subwatershed. Groundwater quality data in the Lower Duwamish were treated separately because there is known contamination in this area. The availability of water quality data varied by subwatershed as follows: phthalate data was only available within the Duwamish, PCB data was available within the Duwamish and Lower Green, cPAH data was available within the Duwamish, Lower Green, and Soos, and data for arsenic, copper, and zinc were available within all four subwatersheds. More than 99 percent of the available data was within the Duwamish subwatershed, identifying a need for additional monitoring of groundwater quality in the other subwatersheds.

Washington↗

Transformative environmental governance

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources↗

Biodiversity connections—‘ties that bind’

Connectivity is a foundational concept in ecology and conservation and was the organising theme for the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Southeastern Fishes Council, a professional organisation dedicated to the study and conservation of freshwater fishes native to the southeast region of the United States (US). We introduce a Special Contribution of six papers selected from presentations at that meeting that illustrate perspectives on connections created by fish migration and dispersal, evolved life histories and habitat affinities and interspecific facilitation. Although focused on streams of the southeast US, each of these topics is broadly relevant to freshwater fish conservation, particularly with respect to causes and consequences of migratory fish depletion, population fragmentation and species declines. Many other connections relevant to the ecology and conservation of freshwater fishes remain relatively unexplored but could substantively advance conservation. We highlight the potential that species evolutionary histories, that is connections through time, reconstructed using species distributions and phylogenies may improve predictions of species responses to environmental change. Identifying species interdependencies, including undiscovered interactions that support survival or reproduction, could provide insights into how species losses may cascade as aquatic communities unravel. Finally, efforts to elucidate diverse connections between people and freshwater biodiversity, particularly where fisheries are historic and streams mostly go unnoticed, may prove essential to building public support for conservation measures. A research agenda anchored on ‘biodiversity connections’ has the potential to advance ecological understanding and public engagement, elements essential to conserving freshwater fishes.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

Benefits and impacts of road removal

Road removal is being used to mitigate the physical and ecological impacts of roads and to restore both public and private lands. Although many federal and state agencies and private landowners have created protocols for road removal and priorities for restoration, research has not kept pace with the rate of removal. Some research has been conducted on hydrologic and geomorphic restoration following road removal, but no studies have directly addressed restoring wildlife habitat. Road removal creates a short-term disturbance which may temporarily increase sediment loss. However, long-term monitoring and initial research have shown that road removal reduces chronic erosion and the risk of landslides. We review the hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological benefits and impacts of three methods of road removal, identify knowledge gaps, and propose questions for future research, which is urgently needed to quantify how effectively road removal restores terrestrial, riparian, and aquatic habitat and other ecosystem processes.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Top 40 priorities for science to inform conservation and management policy in the United States

To maximize the utility of research to decisionmaking, especially given limited financial resources, scientists must set priorities for their efforts. We present a list of the top 40 high-priority, multidisciplinary research questions directed toward informing some of the most important current and future decisions about management of species, communities, and ecological processes in the United States. The questions were generated by an open, inclusive process that included personal interviews with decisionmakers, broad solicitation of research needs from scientists and policymakers, and an intensive workshop that included scientifically oriented individuals responsible for managing and developing policy related to natural resources. The process differed from previous efforts to set priorities for conservation research in its focus on the engagement of decisionmakers in addition to researchers. The research priorities emphasized the importance of addressing societal context and exploration of trade-offs among alternative policies and actions, as well as more traditional questions related to ecological processes and functions.

BioScience↗

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

A recruitment niche framework for improving seed-based restoration

As larger tracts of land experience degradation, seed-based restoration (SBR) will be a primary tool to reestablish vegetation and ecosystem function. SBR has advanced in terms of technical and technological approaches, yet plant recruitment remains a major barrier in some systems, notably drylands. There is an unmet opportunity to test science-based approaches to seed mix design and application, based not only on diversity or local provenance, but on the unique recruitment strategies of species. We lay out a framework that uses a quantitative representation of species' recruitment niches to match them to targeted goals (e.g. drought or invasion resistance) and methods (e.g. precision tools and technologies) in SBR. We first describe how to quantify the recruitment niche with seed and seedling traits tied to observed recruitment responses to environmental factors. We then show how a quantified recruitment niche framework can serve as the foundation to address three major restoration challenges: (1) designing forward-looking seed mixes that increase resilience to future climate and disturbance, (2) accounting for natural recovery in SBR planning, and (3) applying precision seeding practices to maximize restoration success. Finally, we demonstrate these ideas with existing data and discuss key challenges to adoption in SBR practice. While the ideas in this framework are based in ecological theory, they will require substantial testing and refinement by scientists engaged in SBR efforts. If this framework is integrated into research agendas, we believe it has the potential to unify and advance diverse elements of seed-based restoration ecology and improve restoration outcomes.

Restoration Ecology↗

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument

Executive Summary This report summarizes results of the first comprehensive biological inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument (NM) in southern Arizona. Surveys at the monument were part of a larger effort to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates in eight National Park Service units in Arizona and New Mexico. In 2001 and 2002 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at Casa Grande Ruins NM to document the presence, and in some cases relative abundance, of species. By using repeatable study designs and standardized field techniques, which included quantified survey effort, we produced inventories that can serve as the basis for a biological monitoring program. Of the National Park Service units in the region, no other has experienced as much recent ecological change as Casa Grande Ruins NM. Once situated in a large and biologically diverse mesquite bosque near the perennially flowing Gila River, the monument is now a patch of sparse desert vegetation surrounded by urban and commercial development that is rapidly replacing agriculture as the dominant land use in the area. Roads, highways, and canals surround the monument. Development, and its associated impacts, has important implications for the plants and animals that live in the monument. The plant species list is small and the distribution and number of non-native plants appears to be increasing. Terrestrial vertebrates are also being impacted by the changing landscape, which is increasing the isolation of these populations from nearby natural areas and thereby reducing the number of species at the monument. These observations are alarming and are based on our review of previous studies, our research in the monument, and our knowledge of the biogeography and ecology of the Sonoran Desert. Together, these data suggest that the monument has lost a significant portion of its historic complement of species and these changes will likely intensify as urbanization continues. Despite isolation of the monument from nearby natural areas, we recorded noteworthy species or observations for all taxonomic groups: * Plants: night-blooming cereus * Amphibians: high abundance of Couch's spadefoot toads * Reptiles: high abundance of long-nosed snakes * Birds: 10 species of diurnal raptors including 4 species of falcons * Mammals: American badger This study is a first step in the process of compiling information about the biological resources of Casa Grande Ruins NM and surrounding areas. We recommend additional inventory and research studies, and we identify aspects of our effort that could be improved upon through application of new techniques or by extending the temporal (and possibly spatial) scope of our work.

Open-File Report↗

WLCI researchers employ new approaches to help managers conserve deer migrations

Elk, mule deer, pronghorn antelope, moose, and bighorn sheep are iconic animals of the American West. These hooved animals, known as ungulates, commonly travel 30–60 miles between seasonal ranges. These migrations between winter and summer ranges are vital for survival and reproduction. As habitat fragmentation continues, the conservation of ungulate migration routes has received considerable attention in the West and across the globe. For example, it is estimated that many ungulate migration routes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem have already been lost. The traditional migration routes of Wyoming ungulates are threatened by unprecedented levels of energy development and by increasing levels of rural ranchette development (including fences, structures, and roads). In the past, migration corridors have been mapped based primarily on the expert opinions of state game managers, but long-term conservation of Wyoming's ungulate migration routes requires a better understanding of migration ecology and more sophisticated management tools. Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) researchers investigated the migration of a large mule deer herd across the Dad and Wild Horse winter ranges in southwest Wyoming, where 2,000 gas wells and 1,609 kilometers of pipelines and roads have been proposed for development.

Wyoming↗

The interaction of intraspecific competition and habitat on individual diet specialization: a near range-wide examination of sea otters

The quantification of individuality is a common research theme in the fields of population, community, and evolutionary ecology. The potential for individuality to arise is likely context-dependent, and the influence of habitat characteristics on its prevalence has received less attention than intraspecific competition. We examined individual diet specialization in 16 sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations from southern California to the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. Because population histories, relative densities, and habitat characteristics vary widely among sites, we could examine the effects of intraspecific competition and habitat on the prevalence of individual diet specialization. Using observed diet data, we classified half of our sites as rocky substrate habitats and the other half containing a mixture of rocky and unconsolidated (soft) sediment substrates. We used stable isotope data to quantify population- and individual-level diet variation. Among rocky substrate sites, the slope [±standard error (SE)] of the positive significant relationship between the within-individual component (WIC) and total isotopic niche width (TINW) was shallow (0.23 ± 0.07) and negatively correlated with sea otter density. In contrast, the slope of the positive WIC/TINW relationship for populations inhabiting mixed substrate habitats was much higher (0.53 ± 0.14), suggesting a low degree of individuality, irrespective of intraspecific competition. Our results show that the potential for individuality to occur as a result of increasing intraspecific competition is context-dependent and that habitat characteristics, which ultimately influence prey diversity, relative abundance, and the range of skillsets required for efficient prey procurement, are important in determining when and where individual diet specialization occurs in nature.

Oecologia↗

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Journal of Land Use Science↗

Achieving success with RISE: A widely implementable, iterative, structured process for mastering interdisciplinary team science collaborations

Scientific experts from different disciplines often struggle to mesh their specialized perspectives into the shared mindset that is needed to address difficult and persistent environmental, ecological, and societal problems. Many traditional graduate programs provide excellent research and technical skill training. However, these programs often do not teach a systematic way to learn team skills, nor do they offer a protocol for identifying and tackling increasingly integrated interdisciplinary (among disciplines) and transdisciplinary (among researchers and stakeholders) questions. As a result, professionals trained in traditional graduate programs (e.g., current graduate students and employed practitioners) may not have all of the collaborative skills needed to advance solutions to difficult scientific problems. In the present article, we illustrate a tractable, widely implementable structured process called RISE that accelerates the development of these missing skills. The RISE process (Route to Identifying, learning, and practicing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary team Skills to address difficult Environmental problems) can be used by diverse teams as a tool for research, professional interactions, or training. RISE helps professionals with different expertise learn from each other by repeatedly asking team-developed questions that are tested using an interactive quantitative tool (e.g., agent-based models, machine learning, case studies) applied to a shared problem framework and data set. Outputs from the quantitative tool are then discussed and interpreted as a team, considering all team members’ perspectives, disciplines, and expertise. After this synthesis, RISE is repeated with new questions that the team jointly identified in earlier data interpretation discussions. As a result, individual perspectives, originally informed by disciplinary training, are complemented by a shared understanding of team function and elevated interdisciplinary knowledge.

BioScience↗

Invasive species management restores a plant-pollinator mutualism in Hawaii

1.The management and removal of invasive species may give rise to unanticipated changes in plant–pollinator mutualisms because they can alter the composition and functioning of plant–pollinator interactions in a variety of ways. To utilize a functional approach for invasive species management, we examined the restoration of plant–pollinator mutualisms following the large-scale removal of an invasive nectar thief and arthropod predator, Vespula pensylvanica. 2.We reduced V. pensylvanica populations in large plots managed over multiple years to examine the response of plant–pollinator mutualisms and the fruit production of a functionally important endemic Hawaiian tree species, Metrosideros polymorpha. To integrate knowledge of the invader's behaviour and the plant's mating system, we determined the efficacy of V. pensylvanica as a pollinator of M. polymorpha and quantified the dependence of M. polymorpha on animal pollination (e.g. level of self-compatibility and pollen limitation). 3.The reduction of V. pensylvanica in managed sites, when compared to unmanaged sites, resulted in a significant increase in the visitation rates of effective bee pollinators (e.g. introduced Apis mellifera and native Hylaeus spp.) and in the fruit production of M. polymorpha. 4.Apis mellifera, following the management of V. pensylvanica, appears to be acting as a substitute pollinator for M. polymorpha, replacing extinct or threatened bird and bee species in our study system. 5.Synthesis and applications. Fruit production of the native M. polymorpha was increased after management of the invasive pollinator predator V. pensylvanica; however, the main pollinators were no longer native but introduced. This research thus demonstrates the diverse impacts of introduced species on ecological function and the ambiguous role they play in restoration. We recommend incorporating ecological function and context into invasive species management as this approach may enable conservation managers to simultaneously minimize the negative and maximize the positive impacts (e.g. taxon substitution) of introduced species. Such novel restoration approaches are needed, especially in highly degraded ecosystems.

Hawai'i↗

A new groundwater energy transport model for the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator

Heat transport in the subsurface is an important aspect of research related to the effects of a warming climate on ecological services (i.e., cold-water refugia); the development of geothermal resources for energy banking schemes (i.e., aquifer thermal energy storage [ATES]); and the effects of temperature on other aspects of groundwater quality, such as nutrient cycling. Historically, simulation of heat transport using the MODFLOW groundwater simulator and related codes was performed by scaling the input parameters of a solute-transport model to emulate heat transport. However, that approach required additional pre- and post-processing of input and output and could not account for the variation in effective thermal storage and transport properties during transient, unsaturated flow, for example. True heat-transport capabilities in the context of MODFLOW were first introduced in a variant called USG-Transport. More recently, a new groundwater energy-transport (GWE) model type has been added to MODFLOW 6, the core version of the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator. GWE supports the simulation of heat transport on structured or unstructured grids as well as within and between features of advanced packages that represent streams, lakes, multi-aquifer wells, and the unsaturated zone. GWE is integrated within MODFLOW 6 and is accessible through the FloPy Python package and the MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API). An example simulation demonstrates conduction between grid cells through both the water and the solid aquifer material, including thermal bleeding from saturated overburden cells into a groundwater flow field.

Groundwater↗

Ecovoltaic solar energy development creates novel microclimate, temperature, and soil moisture patterns under solar panels in a warm desert

Background: As solar energy development expands in desert regions, new installation practices and solar technologies seek to balance ecosystem conservation and energy generation (ecovoltaics). The Gemini Solar Project, a large ecovoltaic facility located in the northeastern Mojave Desert, employed low impact installation methods to reduce disturbance of the desert ecosystem within arrays of bifacial panels mounted on solar tracking systems. We evaluated microclimate and environmental conditions across five locations: four within-facility microsites (underneath solar panels, east and west panel driplines, and interspaces between panel rows) and one in the undisturbed desert outside the facility. Results: Under panel microsites experienced lower solar radiation and evaporative demand than panel driplines, and driplines experienced lower solar radiation and evaporative demand than interspaces and undisturbed desert outside the facility. Air temperature was similar among microsites, whereas soil surface temperature was highest in interspaces and lower in under-panel and dripline microsites due to diurnal panel shading. Soil temperature was higher under panels compared to interspaces from March to September and lower in other months, and higher during daytime and lower at nighttime periods. Panel tracking and the more frequent occurrence of afternoon precipitation promoted higher soil moisture in west driplines. Water redistribution was also influenced by soil hydraulic conductivity—deep soils experienced greater west dripline soil moisture, whereas shallow soils experienced surface water pooling and greater soil moisture in the west dripline and under solar panels. Conclusions: Gemini’s ecovoltaic design promotes microclimate heterogeneity, moderating some environmental conditions while intensifying others, and often differing from fixed panel facilities with higher disturbance. This research provides critical information to balance renewable energy expansion and ecological function in warm deserts.

Nevada↗

Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region’s ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Amazon River, Mazagão watershed↗