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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources

Vulnerability of different Colorado Plateau land types to drivers of change

Public lands are challenged by a range of pressures—changing climate, increasing visitation, resource extraction—and their effects can span spatial scales, often crossing land management jurisdictional boundaries. Research approaches which explicitly span jurisdictions can support strategies to contend with regional pressures. We assess management-relevant drivers of change—aridification, livestock grazing, invasive species, surface disturbance, and fire—across a patchwork of land management units and agencies on the Colorado Plateau, focusing on southeastern Utah, USA. We use vulnerability analysis, first evaluating exposure to drivers across the landscape, then quantifying sensitivity to each driver across different land types, defined by mapped Ecological Site Groups, a system for classifying landscapes according to physical factors including climate, soils, and topographic setting. We address the questions: 1) how are drivers spatially distributed across the study region; and, 2) based on exposure and sensitivity, are certain land types more vulnerable to these drivers? We find that the study region has high exposure and sensitivity—and thus high vulnerability—to aridification and grazing, but low exposure and vulnerability to other drivers. Although more sensitive land types were not generally more exposed, identifying which areas are most sensitive can guide adaptive measures, like where new uses or disturbances would be least harmful and which areas could be prioritized for restoration. The method we demonstrate is a flexible tool for assessing landscape-scale impacts, is built on nationally available datasets, and can be tailored to different datasets and sensitivity metrics.

Utah↗

Integrating ecosystem resilience and resistance into decision support tools for multi-scale population management of a sagebrush indicator species

Imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of western North America are experiencing unprecedented conservation planning efforts. Advances in decision-support tools operationalize concepts of ecosystem resilience by quantitatively linking spatially explicit variation in soil and plant processes to outcomes of biotic and abiotic disturbances. However, failure to consider higher trophic-level fauna of conservation concern in these tools can hinder efforts to operationalize resilience owing to spatiotemporal lags between slower reorganization of plant and soil processes following disturbance, and faster behavioral and demographic responses of fauna to disturbance. Here, we provide multi-scale examples of decision-support tools for management and restoration actions that evaluate general resilience mapped to variation in soil moisture and temperature regimes through new lenses of habitat selection and population performance responses for an at-risk obligate species to sagebrush ecosystems, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). We then briefly describe general pathways going forward for more explicit integration of sage-grouse fitness with factors influencing variation in sagebrush resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive species (e.g., annual grasses). The intended product of these efforts is a more targeted operational definition of resilience for managers by using quantifiable metrics that help limit chances of spatiotemporal mismatches among restoration responses owing to differences in engineering resilience between sagebrush ecosystem processes and sage-grouse population dynamics. Moreover, spatial resilience can be promoted though explicit consideration of sage-grouse and sagebrush predicted responses to active and passive management treatments across space and time. We describe tools that include multi-scale geospatial overlays and simulation analyses of post-disturbance land cover recovery aimed at prioritizing primary threats to sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin in the western portion of sage-grouse range (i.e., grass-fire cycles and conifer expansion), but underlying concepts have broader application to a range of ecosystems.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

Minnesota↗

Evaluating ecological equivalence of created marshes: comparing structural indicators with stable isotope indicators of blue crab trophic support

This study sought to examine ecological equivalence of created marshes of different ages using traditional structural measures of equivalence, and tested a relatively novel approach using stable isotopes as a measure of functional equivalence. We compared soil properties, vegetation, nekton communities, and δ 13 C and δ 15 N isotope values of blue crab muscle and hepatopancreas tissue and primary producers at created (5-24 years old) and paired reference marshes in SW Louisiana. Paired contrasts indicated that created and reference marshes supported equivalent plant and nekton communities, but differed in soil characteristics. Stable isotope indicators examining blue crab food web support found that the older marshes (8 years+) were characterized by comparable trophic diversity and breadth compared to their reference marshes. Interpretation of results for the youngest site was confounded by the fact that the paired reference, which represented the desired end goal of restoration, contained a greater diversity of basal resources. Stable isotope techniques may give coastal managers an additional tool to assess functional equivalency of created marshes, as measured by trophic support, but may be limited to comparisons of marshes with similar vegetative communities and basal resources, or require the development of robust standardization techniques.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge, Maine, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge in Maine. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of four marsh management units within the refuge, totaling about 13 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to $ 1,000, and may continue to increase at a lower rate with further expenditures. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than or equal to $ 1,000 included improving nesting habitat for Ammodramus nelsoni (Nelson’s sparrow) or restoring hydrologic connections to the upper marsh in one marsh management unit (Hobart Stream West). The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in the density of nekton and of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health). The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Moosehorn National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated for implementation as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Maine↗

Global patterns of tree stem growth and stand aboveground wood production in mangrove forests

Mangrove forests provide important ecological and economic services including carbon sequestration and storage. The conservation and restoration of mangroves are expected to play an important role in mitigating climate change, and understanding the factors influencing mangrove stem growth and wood production are important in predicting and improving mangrove carbon sequestration and responses to environmental change. In this study, we collected data of individual diameter at breast height (DBH) growth rate and stand level aboveground wood production in both non-plantation (commonly termed as natural) mangroves and mangrove plantations across the world. Climatic factors, proxies of edaphic factors, as well as biological factors (e.g. mangrove species) were included as explanatory variables in the analyses to determine factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production of mangroves. Using hierarchical Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis we found interactions among environmental and biological factors in controlling mangrove tree growth rate and stand wood production. We also found different global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production between non-plantation mangroves and plantations. Climatic conditions (precipitation of driest season, precipitation seasonality) were the most important factors influencing the global pattern of tree DBH growth rate in non-plantation mangroves, with edaphic and biological characteristics also playing a role under specific climatic conditions. The global pattern of stand wood production in non-plantation mangroves was primarily determined by stand mean DBH growth rate of individual trees. However, in mangrove plantations management measures, specifically species selection and planting density, were the most important factors influencing the global patterns of tree growth rate and stand wood production. Our study provides parameters for a global estimation of long-term carbon sequestration in both non-plantation mangroves and mangrove plantations. In addition, our results help us better predict the dynamics of tree growth and carbon sequestration of non-plantation mangroves under changing climate.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Broadening benefits and anticipating tradeoffs with a proposed ecosystem service analysis framework for the US Army Corps of Engineers

Would-be adopters of ecosystem service analysis frameworks might ask, ‘Do such frameworks improve ecosystem service provision or social benefits sufficiently to compensate for any extra effort?’ Here we explore that question by retrospectively applying an ecosystem goods and services (EGS) analysis framework to a large river restoration case study conducted by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and comparing potential time costs and outcomes of traditional versus EGS-informed planning. USACE analytic methods can have a large influence on which river and wetland restoration projects are implemented in the United States because they affect which projects or project elements are eligible for federal cost-share funding. A new framework is designed for the USACE and is primarily distinguished from current procedures by adding explicit steps to document and compare tradeoffs and complementarity among all affected EGS, rather than the subset that falls within project purposes. Further, it applies economic concepts to transform ecological performance indicators into social benefit indicators, even if changes cannot be valued. We conclude that, for large multi-partner restoration projects like our case study, using the framework provides novel information on social outcomes that could be used to enhance project design, without substantially increasing scoping costs. The primary benefits of using the framework in the case study appeared to stem from early comprehensive identification of stakeholder interests that might have prevented project delays late in the process, and improving the communication of social benefits and how tradeoffs among EGS benefits were weighed during planning.

Missouri↗

Functional composition of plant communities mediates biomass effects on ecosystem service recovery across an experimental dryland restoration network

Land degradation can result in a loss of critical ecosystem services that we often seek to restore through re-establishment of desired plant communities. Trait-based approaches have the potential to target specific ecosystem services based on associations between the functional composition of plant communities and ecosystem properties that serve as indicators of those services. The effect of functional composition on ecosystem recovery may depend on the amount of restored plant biomass, itself a supporting service frequently targeted in restoration efforts. Yet, interactions between functional composition and biomass are not formally integrated into trait-based analytical frameworks. We tested the hypothesis that functional composition of plant communities both drives, and interacts with, biomass production to influence indicators of soil functioning and weed suppression across a network of degraded dryland restoration experiments. This networked approach allowed us to identify generalized effects of functional composition on ecosystem recovery across a range of dryland climate conditions. Climate had a substantial effect on ecosystem indicators, with weed cover and soil surface stability increasing in more arid climates, water infiltration increasing with precipitation, and aggregate structure increasing with less freezing. After accounting for climate effects across study sites, we found significant effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) trait values on biomass, particularly a positive effect of leaf carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and of CWM-biomass interactions on other ecosystem indicators. Cover of exotic species was reduced in restored communities with a combination of low leaf dry matter content and high biomass, soil water infiltration increased with lower specific root length and high biomass, and soil aggregate stability increased with higher root dry matter content and high biomass, among other effects. Functional diversity had no significant effects on any ecosystem indicators. Synthesis : The influence of community functional composition on ecosystem properties increases with community biomass, particularly in disturbed or low productivity systems. This suggests that active management should not only focus on trait values that optimize individual ecosystem indicators but also how those functional strategies are complementary or counter to those that increase biomass.

Functional Ecology↗

Fulfilling a paradoxical mandate: can the Environmental Water Account ensure the reliability of freshwater exports from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and simultaneously protect delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) from excessive entrainment?

The San Francisco Estuary (SFE) is often defined by its extremes. It is considered one of the most urbanized estuaries in the world (Conomos 1979, Nichols et al. 1986), and one of the most invaded estuaries in the United States, with hundreds of aquatic nonindigenous species established throughout the system (Cohen and Carlton 1995, Dill and Cordone 1997, Kimmerer and Orsi 1996). It is also one of the most managed estuaries, particularly in relation to freshwater inflow, water circulation, and water quality (Jassby and Powell 1994, CSWRCB 1995, Arthur et al. 1996, Kimmerer 2002). Despite this high level of disturbance, the SFE is one of the most valuable natural resources in the western United States (CALFED 2000). The SFE provides important habitat for numerous native plant and animal species, many of special concern, as well as several species with sport and commercial value (CALFED 2000). Conserving and restoring estuarine habitat and natural resources is a pressing and complex challenge for the responsible government agencies because human water needs continue to increase in concert with continuing urbanization of the watershed.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges, Virginia, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing tidal marsh management decisions at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges in Virginia. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of six marsh management units within the refuges, totaling about 575 hectares, and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that could be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per marsh management unit, that could maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to approximately $ 143,000, but that further expenditures may yield diminishing return on investment. Potential management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than $ 143,000 included digging runnels by hand to improve drainage from the marsh surface, breaching a road to restore natural hydrology, trapping predators to enhance nest success of tidal marsh birds, and reducing the abundance of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) to minimize their effects on marsh vegetation. The potential management benefits were derived from expected increases in number of tidal marsh obligate breeding birds, species richness of nekton, and density of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health); and an expected decrease in duration of surface flooding. The prototype presented here does not resolve management decisions; rather, it provides a framework for decision making at the Eastern Shore of Virginia and Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuges that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuges.

Virginia↗

Preserving prairies: Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of invasive annual bromes in the Northern Great Plains

Two Eurasian invasive annual brome grasses, cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) and Japanese brome ( Bromus japonicus ), are well known for their impact in steppe ecosystems of the western United States where these grasses have altered fire regimes, reduced native plant diversity and abundance, and degraded wildlife habitat. Annual bromes are also abundant in the grasslands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), but their impact and ecology are not as well studied. It is unclear whether the lessons learned from the steppe will translate to the mixed-grass prairie where native plant species are adapted to frequent fires and grazing. Developing a successful annual brome management strategy for National Park Service units and other NGP grasslands requires better understanding of (1) the impact of annual bromes on grassland condition; (2) the dynamics of these species through space and time; and (3) the relative importance of environmental factors within and outside managers' control for these spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we use vegetation monitoring data collected from 1998 to 2015 in 295 sites to relate spatiotemporal variability of annual brome grasses to grassland composition, weather, physical environmental characteristics, and ecological processes (grazing and fire). Concern about the impact of these species in NGP grasslands is warranted, as we found a decline in native species richness with increasing annual brome cover. Annual brome cover generally increased over the time of monitoring but also displayed a 3- to 5-yr cycle of reduction and resurgence. Relative cover of annual bromes in the monitored areas was best predicted by park unit, weather, extant plant community, slope grade, soil composition, and fire history. We found no evidence that grazing reduced annual brome cover, but this may be due to the relatively low grazing pressure in our study. By understanding the consequences and patterns of annual brome invasion, we will be better able to preserve and restore these grassland landscapes for future generations.

Ecosphere↗

Portfolio theory as a management tool to guide conservation and restoration of multi-stock fish populations

Habitat degradation and harvest have upset the natural buffering mechanism (i.e., portfolio effects) of many large-scale multi-stock fisheries by reducing spawning stock diversity that is vital for generating population stability and resilience. The application of portfolio theory offers a means to guide management activities by quantifying the importance of multi-stock dynamics and suggesting conservation and restoration strategies to improve naturally occurring portfolio effects. Our application of portfolio theory to Lake Erie Sander vitreus (walleye), a large population that is supported by riverine and open-lake reef spawning stocks, has shown that portfolio effects generated by annual inter-stock larval fish production are currently suboptimal when compared to potential buffering capacity. Reduced production from riverine stocks has resulted in a single open-lake reef stock dominating larval production, and in turn, high inter-annual recruitment variability during recent years. Our analyses have shown (1) a weak average correlation between annual river and reef larval production (ρ̄ = 0.24), suggesting that a natural buffering capacity exists in the population, and (2) expanded annual production of larvae (potential recruits) from riverine stocks could stabilize the fishery by dampening inter-annual recruitment variation. Ultimately, our results demonstrate how portfolio theory can be used to quantify the importance of spawning stock diversity and guide management on ecologically relevant scales (i.e., spawning stocks) leading to greater stability and resilience of multi-stock populations and fisheries.

Lake Erie↗

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

Florida↗

Mid-contract management alters conservation reserve program vegetation in the central and western United States

Disturbances such as grazing, fire, and burrowing are historically important in North American grasslands, and plans for restoring disturbance regimes are often required for successful restoration. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has become the dominant grassland restoration mechanism in many areas, and requires planned disturbances known as mid-contract management (MCM). We recorded evidence of MCM in CRP fields across a 14-state region of the western and central United States, then revisited fields after one to five years to characterize bare ground and vegetative cover and composition using edge-of-road visual surveys. We found a reduced cover of grasses up to five years after MCM, and a concomitant increased cover of flowering forbs and diversity of pollinator-friendly forbs. There was little measurable change in overall plant cover or bare ground cover between one and five years after MCM, though bare soil cover did increase slightly. Baseline tree and shrub covers were very low on average but highly variable due to outliers with high woody cover. After MCM, the presence of woody vegetation remained low and relatively constant. Grazing and haying resulted in a lower probability of noxious grass presence than mowing or disking, but haying and disking were better for inhibiting the presence of noxious forbs. These results show that MCM can be a useful tool for maintaining vegetation quality. The results also point to an important need to understand factors that influence the effects of MCM, including disturbance technique, disturbance frequency, drought, and climate.

Ecological Restoration↗

A trans-national monarch butterfly population model and implications for regional conservation priorities

1. The monarch has undergone considerable population declines over the past decade, and the governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have agreed to work together to conserve the species. 2. Given limited resources, understanding where to focus conservation action is key for widespread species like monarchs. To support planning for continental-scale monarch habitat restoration, we address the question of where restoration efforts are likely to have the largest impacts on monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus Linn.) population growth rates. 3. We present a spatially explicit demographic model simulating the multi-generational annual cycle of the eastern monarch population, and use the model to examine management scenarios, some of which focus on particular regions of North America. 4. Improving the monarch habitat in the north central or southern parts of the monarch range yields a slightly greater increase in the population growth rate than restoration in other regions. However, combining restoration efforts across multiple regions yields population growth rates above 1 with smaller simulated improvements in habitat per region than single-region strategies. 5. S ynthesis and applications: These findings suggest that conservation investment in projects across the full monarch range will be more effective than focusing on one or a few regions, and will require international cooperation across many land use categories.

Ecological Entomology↗

A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

Louisiana↗

Fire helps restore natural disturbance regime to benefit rare and endangered marsh birds endemic to the Colorado River

Large flood events were part of the historical disturbance regime within the lower basin of most large river systems around the world. Large flood events are now rare in the lower basins of most large river systems due to flood control structures. Endemic organisms that are adapted to this historical disturbance regime have become less abundant due to these dramatic changes in the hydrology and the resultant changes in vegetation structure. The Yuma Clapper Rail is a federally endangered bird that breeds in emergent marshes within the lower Colorado River basin in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. We evaluated whether prescribed fire could be used as a surrogate disturbance event to help restore historical conditions for the benefit of Yuma Clapper Rails and four sympatric marsh-dependent birds. We conducted call-broadcast surveys for marsh birds within burned and unburned (control) plots both pre-and post-burn. Fire increased the numbers of Yuma Clapper Rails and Virginia Rails, and did not affect the numbers of Black Rails, Soras, and Least Bitterns. We found no evidence that detection probability of any of the five species differed between burn and control plots. Our results suggest that prescribed fire can be used to set back succession of emergent marshlands and help mimic the natural disturbance regime in the lower Colorado River basin. Hence, prescribed fire can be used to help increase Yuma Clapper Rail populations without adversely affecting sympatric species. Implementing a coordinated long-term fire management plan within marshes of the lower Colorado River may allow regulatory agencies to remove the Yuma Clapper Rail from the endangered species list. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗