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At least 703 records · Page 39Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Overview of the Mars Pathfinder Mission: Launch through landing, surface operations, data sets, and science results

Mars Pathfinder successfully landed at Ares Vallis on July 4, 1997, deployed and navigated a small rover about 100 m clockwise around the lander, and collected data from three science instruments and ten technology experiments. The mission operated for three months and returned 2.3 Gbits of data, including over 16,500 lander and 550 rover images, 16 chemical analyses of rocks and soil, and 8.5 million individual temperature, pressure and wind measurements. Path‐finder is the best known location on Mars, having been clearly identified with respect to other features on the surface by correlating five prominent horizon features and two small craters in lander images with those in high‐resolution orbiter images and in inertial space from two‐way ranging and Doppler tracking. Tracking of the lander has fixed the spin pole of Mars, determined the precession rate since Viking 20 years ago, and indicates a polar moment of inertia, which constrains a central metallic core to be between 1300 and ∼2000 km in radius. Dark rocks appear to be high in silica and geochemically similar to anorogenic andesites; lighter rocks are richer in sulfur and lower in silica, consistent with being coated with various amounts of dust. Rover and lander images show rocks with a variety of morphologies, fabrics and textures, suggesting a variety of rock types are present. Rounded pebbles and cobbles on the surface as well as rounded bumps and pits on some rocks indicate these rocks may be conglomerates (although other explanations are also possible), which almost definitely require liquid water to form and a warmer and wetter past. Air‐borne dust is composed of composite silicate particles with a small fraction of a highly magnetic mineral, interpreted to be most likely maghemite; explanations suggest iron was dissolved from crustal materials during an active hydrologic cycle with maghemite freeze dried onto silicate dust grains. Remote sensing data at a scale of a kilometer or greater and an Earth analog correctly predicted a rocky plain safe for landing and roving with a variety of rocks deposited by catstrophic floods, which are relatively dust free. The surface appears to have changed little since it formed billions of years ago, with the exception that eolian activity may have deflated the surface by ∼3–7 cm, sculpted wind tails, collected sand into dunes, and eroded ventifacts (fluted and grooved rocks). Pathfinder found a dusty lower atmosphere, early morning water ice clouds, and morning near‐surface air temperatures that changed abruptly with time and height. Small scale vortices, interpreted to be dust devils, were observed repeatedly in the afternoon by the meteorology instruments and have been imaged.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2013

The Anemomilos prediction methodology for Dst

This paper describes new capabilities for operational geomagnetic D isturbance s torm t ime (Dst) index forecasts. We present a data‐driven, deterministic algorithm called Anemomilos for forecasting Dst out to a maximum of 6 days for large, medium, and small storms, depending upon transit time to the Earth. This capability is used for operational satellite management and debris avoidance in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Anemomilos has a 15 min cadence, 1 h time granularity, 144 h prediction window (+6 days), and up to 1 h latency. A new finding is that nearly all flare events above a certain irradiance threshold, occurring within a defined solar longitude/latitude region and having sufficient estimated liftoff velocity of ejected material, will produce a geoeffective Dst perturbation. Three solar observables are used for operational Dst forecasting: flare magnitude, integrated flare irradiance through time, and event location. Magnitude is a proxy for ejecta quantity or mass and, combined with speed derived from the integrated flare irradiance, represents the kinetic energy. Speed is estimated as the line‐of‐sight velocity for events within 45° radial of solar disk center. Storms resulting from high‐speed streams emanating from coronal holes are not modeled or predicted. A new result is that solar disk, not limb, observable features are used for predictive techniques. Comparisons between Anemomilos predicted and measured Dst for every hour over 25 months in three continuous time frames between 2001 (high solar activity), 2005 (low solar activity), and 2012 (rising solar activity) are shown. The Anemomilos operational algorithm was developed for a specific customer use related to thermospheric mass density forecasting. It is an operational space weather technology breakthrough using solar disk observables to predict geomagnetically effective Dst up to several days at 1 h time granularity. Real‐time forecasts are presented at http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~sam_ops/index.html?

Space Weather↗
USGS2012

Forecast model for moderate earthquakes near Parkfield, California

Earthquake instability models have possible application to earthquake forecasting because the models simulate both preseismic and coseismic changes of fault slip and ground deformation. In the forecast procedure proposed here, repeated measurements of preseismic fault slip and ground deformation constrain the values of model parameters. The early part of the model simulation corresponds to the available field data, and the subsequent part constitutes an estimate of future faulting and ground deformation. In particular, the time, location, and size of unstable faulting are estimates of the pending earthquake parameters. The forecast accuracy depends on the model realism and parameter resolution. The forecast procedure is applied to fault creep and trilateration data measured near Parkfield, California, where at least five magnitude 5.5 to 6 earthquakes have occurred regularly since 1881, the last in 1966. The quasi-static model consists of a flat vertical plane embedded in an elastic half space. Spacially variable fault slip of strike-slip sense is driven by an increasing regional shear stress but is impeded by a relatively strong patch of brittle, strain-softening fault. The field data are consistent with these approximate values of patch parameters: radius of 3 km, patch center 5 km deep and 8 km southeast of the 1966 epicenter, and maximum brittle strength of 26 bars. Fluctuations in the available field data prevent estimating the earthquake time with any more precision than use of the 21±8 year recurrence interval. However, the model may later give a more precise estimate of the earthquake time if the fault slip rate near the inferred patch increases before the earthquake, as predicted by the model.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

Minnesota↗
USGS1989

Seismic methods for determining earthquake source parameters and lithospheric structure

The seismologic methods most commonly used in studies of earthquakes and the structure of the continental lithosphere are reviewed in three main sections: earthquake source parameter determinations, the determination of earth structure using natural sources, and controlled-source seismology. The emphasis in each section is on a description of data, the principles behind the analysis techniques, and the assumptions and uncertainties in interpretation. Rather than focusing on future directions in seismology, the goal here is to summarize past and current practice as a companion to the review papers in this volume. Reliable earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanisms require seismograph locations with a broad distribution in azimuth and distance from the earthquakes; a recording within one focal depth of the epicenter provides excellent hypocentral depth control. For earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4.5, waveform modeling methods may be used to determine source parameters. The seismic moment tensor provides the most complete and accurate measure of earthquake source parameters, and offers a dynamic picture of the faulting process. Methods for determining the Earth’s structure from natural sources exist for local, regional, and teleseismic sources. One-dimensional models of structure are obtained from body and surface waves using both forward and inverse modeling. Forward-modeling methods include consideration of seismic amplitudes and waveforms, but lack the formal resolution estimates obtained with inverse methods. Two- and three-dimensional lithospheric models are derived using various inverse methods, but at present most of these methods consider only traveltimes of body waves. Controlled-source studies of the Earth’s structure are generally divided by method into seismic refraction/wide-angle reflection and seismic reflection studies. Seismic refraction profiles are usually interpreted in terms of two-dimensional structure by forward modeling of traveltimes and amplitudes. The refraction method gives excellent estimates of seismic velocities, but relatively low resolution of structure. Formal resolution estimates are not possible for models derived from forward modeling, but informal estimates can be obtained by perturbing the best-fitting model. Inversion methods for seismic refraction data for one-dimensional models are well established, and two- and three-dimensional methods, including tomography, have recently been developed. Seismic reflection data provide the highest resolution of crustal structure, and have provided many important geological insights in the past decade. The acquisition and processing of these data have been greatly advanced by the hydrocarbon exploration industry. However, reliable crustal velocity control is generally lacking, and the origin of deep crustal reflections remains unclear, resulting in nonunique interpretations. A new form of lithospheric seismology has recently emerged that combines the advantages of seismic refraction and seismic reflection profiles, and the distinction between the two methods is steadily diminishing. Major challenges for future work will be the collection of data that are more densely sampled in space, and the development of interpretation methods that provide quantitative estimates of the uncertainties in the calculated models.

GSA Memoirs↗
USGS2026

Near-Earth solar wind speed of fast coronal mass ejections

Using solar wind and ground magnetometer data for solar cycles 23–25, extreme-value power-law models are developed that quantify relationships between near-Earth solar wind speed and Sun-to-Earth transit times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The models of near-Earth solar wind speed, conditional on ICME transit time, are (a) approximately stable for transit times as short as 15 hr, (b) sublinear, consistent with hydrodynamic drag acting on ICMEs during transit, with linear (ballistic) models not supported by the data, (c) representative of most of the information content of the data, and (d) insensitive to the solar cycle and interplanetary preconditioning. Applying the models to the September 1859 Carrington event ( 𝑇 =17.6 hours), we estimate an ICME-average speed of 𝑉 𝑎 =102⁢1 1164 896 km/s and a 1-hr ICME-maximum speed of 𝑉 𝑚 =157⁢5 1795 1382 km/s. These estimates indicate that Carrington-class magnetic storms do not require exceptionally extreme solar wind speeds, with values lower than some previous estimates.

JGR Space Physics↗
USGS2019

Space-based imaging radar studies of U.S. volcanoes

The arrival of space-based imaging radar as a revolutionary land-surface mapping and monitoring tool little more than a quarter century ago enabled a spate of innovative volcano research worldwide. Soon after launch of European Space Agency’s ERS-1 spacecraft in 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey began SAR and InSAR studies of volcanoes in the Aleutian and Cascades arcs, in Hawai’i, and elsewhere in the western U.S. including the Yellowstone and Long Valley calderas. This paper summarizes results of that effort and presents new findings concerning: (1) prevalence of volcano deformation in the Aleutian and Cascade arcs; (2) surface-change detection and hazard assessment during eruptions at Aleutian and Hawaiian volcanoes; (3) geodetic imaging of magma storage and transport systems in Hawai’i; and (4) deformation sources and processes at the Yellowstone and Long Valley calderas. Surface deformation caused by a variety of processes is common in arc settings and could easily escape detection without systematic InSAR surveillance. Space-based SAR imaging of active lava flows and domes in remote or heavily vegetated settings, including during periods of bad weather and darkness, extends land-based monitoring capabilities and improves hazards assessments. At Kīlauea Volcano, comprehensive SAR and InSAR observations identify multiple magma storage zones beneath the summit area and along the East Rift Zone, and illuminate magma transport pathways. The same approach at Yellowstone tracks the ascent of magmatic volatiles from a mid-crustal intrusion to shallow depth and relates that process to increased hydrothermal activity at the surface. Together with recent and planned launches of highly capable imaging-radar satellites, these findings support an optimistic outlook for near-real time surveillance of volcanoes at global scale in the coming decade.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2018

Calculation of voltages in electric power transmission lines during historic geomagnetic storms: An investigation using realistic earth impedances

Commonly, one-dimensional (1-D) Earth impedances have been used to calculate the voltages induced across electric power transmission lines during geomagnetic storms under the assumption that much of the three-dimensional structure of the Earth gets smoothed when integrating along power transmission lines. We calculate the voltage across power transmission lines in the mid-Atlantic region with both regional 1-D impedances and 64 empirical 3-D impedances obtained from a magnetotelluric survey. The use of 3-D impedances produces substantially more spatial variance in the calculated voltages, with the voltages being more than an order of magnitude different, both higher and lower, than the voltages calculated utilizing regional 1-D impedances. During the March 1989 geomagnetic storm 62 transmission lines exceed 100 V when utilizing empirical 3-D impedances, whereas 16 transmission lines exceed 100 V when utilizing regional 1-D impedances. This demonstrates the importance of using realistic impedances to understand and quantify the impact that a geomagnetic storm has on power grids.

Space Weather↗
USGS2018

Pliocene erosional pulse and glacier-landscape feedbacks in the western Alaska Range

Pliocene–Pleistocene glaciation modified the topography and erosion of most middle- and high-latitude mountain belts, because the evolution of catchment topography controls long-term glacier mass balance and erosion. Hence, characterizing how erosion rates change during repeated glaciations can help test hypothesized glacier erosion-landscape feedbacks across a range of settings. To better understand how glaciations and landscapes coevolve on geologic timescales, I quantify erosion rates in the glaciated western Alaska Range with low-temperature thermochronometric data and modeling. Zircon (U–Th)/He and apatite fission track data suggest mountain-building was underway by the early Miocene. In contrast, lower-temperature apatite (U–Th)/He age-elevation and grain age-kinetic data indicate that erosion accelerated coincident with regional Pliocene glaciation ca. 4 Ma. Furthermore, erosion rates calculated within an eroding half-space indicate slow erosion at a rate ≤0.3 km/m.y. before 4.2 Ma, an initial pulse of rapid erosion at a rate of 1.0–1.6 km/m.y. during 4.2–2.9 Ma, and more moderate erosion at a rate of 0.4–0.7 km/m.y. since 2.9 Ma. The initial erosion pulse suggests a significant transient landscape adjustment to the introduction of efficient glacial erosion. The subsequent decrease in Pleistocene erosion rates is consistent with a negative feedback between continuing glaciation and glacier size/erosivity: If glacial erosion outpaces rock uplift, glacier erosion decreases over time as topography, mass balance, valley gradients, and ice flux are reduced. These findings imply that in areas of moderate rock uplift rates, the onset of local Plio–Pleistocene glaciation may have been punctuated by an initial pulse of rapid landscape change, after which change became more gradual.

Alaska↗
USGS1988

Glaciers of Antarctica

Of all the world's continents Antarctica is the coldest, the highest, and the least known. It is one and a half times the size of the United States, and on it lies 91 percent (30,109,800 km 3 ) of the estimated volume of all the ice on Earth. Because so little is known about Antarctic glaciers compared with what is known about glaciers in populated countries, satellite imagery represents a great leap forward in the provision of basic data. From the coast of Antarctica to about 81?south latitude, there are 2,514 Landsat nominal scene centers (the fixed geographic position of the intersection of orbital paths and latitudinal rows). If there were cloud-free images for all these geographic centers, only about 520 Landsat images would be needed to provide complete coverage. Because of cloud cover, however, only about 70 percent of the Landsat imaging area, or 55 percent of the continent, is covered by good quality Landsat images. To date, only about 20 percent of Antarctica has been mapped at scales of 1:250,000 or larger, but these maps do include about half of the coastline. The area of Antarctica that could be planimetrically mapped at a scale of 1:250,000 would be tripled if the available Landsat images were used in image map production. This chapter contains brief descriptions and interpretations of features seen in 62 carefully selected Landsat images or image mosaics. Images were chosen on the basis of quality and interest; for this reason they are far from evenly spaced around the continent. Space limitations allow less than 15 percent of the Landsat imaging area of Antarctica to be shown in the illustrations reproduced in this chapter. Unfortunately, a wealth of glaciological and other features of compelling interest is present in the many hundreds of images that could not be included. To help show some important features beyond the limit of Landsat coverage, and as an aid to the interpretation of certain features seen in the images, 38 oblique aerial photographs have been included. Again, these represent only a small fraction of the large number of aerial photographs now available in various national collections. The chapter is divided into five geographic sections. The first is the Transantarctic Mountains in the Ross Sea area. Some very large outlet glaciers flow from the East Antarctic ice sheet through the Transantarctic Mountains to the Ross Ice Shelf. Byrd Glacier, one of the largest in the world, drains an area of more than 1,000,000 km 2 . Next, images from the Indian Ocean sector are discussed. These include the Lambert Glacier- Amery Ice Shelf system, so large that about 25 images must be mosaicked to cover its complex system of tributary glaciers. Shirase Glacier, a tidal outlet glacier in the sector, flows at a speed of 2.5 km a -l . About 200 km inland and 200 km west of Shirase Glacier lie the Queen Fabiola ("Yamato") Mountains, whose extensive exposures of `blue ice' lay claim to being the world's most important meteorite-collecting locality, with more than 4,700 meteorite fragments discovered since 1969. The Atlantic Ocean sector is fringed by ice shelves into which flow large ice streams like Jutulstraumen, Stancomb-Wills, Slessor, and Recovery Glaciers. Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves together cover an area two-thirds the size of Texas. From the western margin of the Ronne Ice Shelf, the north-trending arc of the Antarctic Peninsula, with its fjord and alpine landscape and fringing ice shelves, stretches towards South America. The Pacific Ocean sector begins with the Ellsworth Mountains, which include the highest peaks (Vinson Massif at 4,897 m) in Antarctica. The area between the Ellsworth Mountains and the eastern margin of the Ross Ice Shelf is fringed with small ice shelves and some major outlet glaciers. One of these, Pine Island Glacier, was found from comparing 1973 and 1975 images to have an average ice-front velocity of 2.4 km a -1 . This part of Antarctica contains many dormant volcanoes; the summits of servers, such as Mount Takahe with its 8-km-wide summit caldera, protrude through the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1992

The Galileo Solid-State Imaging experiment

The Solid State Imaging (SSI) experiment on the Galileo Orbiter spacecraft utilizes a high-resolution (1500 mm focal length) television camera with an 800 ?? 800 pixel virtual-phase, charge-coupled detector. It is designed to return images of Jupiter and its satellites that are characterized by a combination of sensitivity levels, spatial resolution, geometric fiedelity, and spectral range unmatched by imaging data obtained previously. The spectral range extends from approximately 375 to 1100 nm and only in the near ultra-violet region (??? 350 nm) is the spectral coverage reduced from previous missions. The camera is approximately 100 times more sensitive than those used in the Voyager mission, and, because of the nature of the satellite encounters, will produce images with approximately 100 times the ground resolution (i.e., ??? 50 m lp-1) on the Galilean satellites. We describe aspects of the detector including its sensitivity to energetic particle radiation and how the requirements for a large full-well capacity and long-term stability in operating voltages led to the choice of the virtual phase chip. The F/8.5 camera system can reach point sources of V(mag) ??? 11 with S/N ??? 10 and extended sources with surface brightness as low as 20 kR in its highest gain state and longest exposure mode. We describe the performance of the system as determined by ground calibration and the improvements that have been made to the telescope (same basic catadioptric design that was used in Mariner 10 and the Voyager high-resolution cameras) to reduce the scattered light reaching the detector. The images are linearly digitized 8-bits deep and, after flat-fielding, are cosmetically clean. Information 'preserving' and 'non-preserving' on-board data compression capabilities are outlined. A special "summation" mode, designed for use deep in the Jovian radiation belts, near Io, is also described. The detector is 'preflashed' before each exposure to ensure the photometric linearity. The dynamic range is spread over 3 gain states and an exposure range from 4.17 ms to 51.2 s. A low-level of radial, third-order, geometric distortion has been measured in the raw images that is entirely due to the optical design. The distortion is of the pincushion type and amounts to about 1.2 pixels in the corners of the images. It is expected to be very stable. We discuss the measurement objectives of the SSI experiment in the Jupiter system and emphasize their relationships to those of other experiments in the Galileo project. We outline objectives for Jupiter atmospheric science, noting the relationship of SSI data to that to be returned by experiments on the atmospheric entry Probe. We also outline SSI objectives for satellite surfaces, ring structure, and 'darkside' (e.g., aurorae, lightning, etc.) experiments. Proposed cruise measurement objectives that relate to encounters at Venus, Moon, Earth, Gaspra, and, possibly, Ida are also briefly outlined. The article concludes with a description of a 'fully distributed' data analysis system (HIIPS) that SSI team members intend to use at their home institutions. We also list the nature of systematic data products that will become available to the scientific community. Finally, we append a short 'historical' note outlining the responsibilities and roles of institutions and individuals that have been involved in the 14 year development of the SSI experiment so far. ?? 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Space Science Reviews↗
USGS2025

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗
USGS2015

Resolving bathymetry from airborne gravity along Greenland fjords

Recent glacier mass loss in Greenland has been attributed to encroaching warming waters, but knowledge of fjord bathymetry is required to investigate this mechanism. The bathymetry in many Greenland fjords is unmapped and difficult to measure. From 2010 to 2012, National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Operation IceBridge collected a unique set of airborne gravity, magnetic, radar, and lidar data along the major outlet glaciers and fjords in Greenland. We applied a consistent technique using the IceBridge gravity data to create 90 bathymetric profiles along 54 Greenland fjords. We also used this technique to recover subice topography where warm or crevassed ice prevents the radar system from imaging the bed. Here we discuss our methodology, basic assumptions and error analysis. We present the new bathymetry data and discuss observations in six major regions of Greenland covered by IceBridge. The gravity models provide a total of 1950 line kilometers of bathymetry, 875 line kilometers of subice topography, and 12 new grounding line depths.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Combining numerical and statistical models to predict storm-induced dune erosion

Dune erosion is an important aspect to consider when assessing coastal flood risk, as dune elevation loss makes the protected areas more susceptible to flooding. However, most advanced dune erosion numerical models are computationally expensive, which hinders their application in early-warning systems. Based on a combination of probabilistic and process-based numerical modeling, we develop an efficient statistical tool to predict dune erosion during storms. The analysis focuses on Dauphin Island, AL in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where we combine synthetic sea storms with a calibrated and validated XBeach model to develop and test a range of different surrogate models for their ability to predict barrier-island geometric parameters under storm conditions. Surrogate models are developed by combining the oceanographic forcing from 100 optimally sampled sea-storm events covering the entire multivariate parameter space (used as XBeach input) and associated changes in the dune system (XBeach output). We test four surrogate models using a k-fold approach for validation. All models perform well in predicting changes in dune elevation, barrier-island area, and width, but are less accurate in predicting alterations in the cross-shore locations of dune morphological features. Multivariate adaptive regression splines are identified as the best surrogate model based on their fast development and good performance, attaining a modified Mielke index of 0.81 for dune crest height. As demonstrated at Dauphin Island, our approach shows potential to be used in an operational framework to predict dune response (in particular crest elevation change) when water level and wave forecasts are available.

Alabama↗
USGS1996

Identifying coseismic subsidence in tidal-wetland stratigraphic sequences at the Cascadia subduction zone of western North America

Tidal-wetland stratigraphy reveals that great plate boundary earthquakes have caused hundreds of kilometers of coast to subside at the Cascadia subduction zone. However, determining earthquake recurrence intervals and mapping the coastal extent of past great earthquake ruptures in this region are complicated by the effects of many sedimentologic, hydrographic, and oceanographic processes that occur on the coasts of tectonically passive as well as active continental margins. Tidal-wetland stratigraphy at many Cascadia estuaries differs little from that at similar sites on passive-margin coasts where stratigraphic sequences form through nonseismic processes unrelated to coseismic land level changes. Methods developed through study of similar stratigraphic sequences in Europe provide a framework for investigating the Cascadia estuarine record. Five kinds of criteria must be evaluated when inferring regional coastal subsidence due to great plate boundary earthquakes: the suddenness and amount of submergence, the lateral extent of submerged tidal-wetland soils, the coincidence of submergence with tsunami deposits, and the degree of synchroneity of submergence events at widely spaced sites. Evaluation of such criteria at the Cascadia subduction zone indicates regional coastal subsidence during at least two great earthquakes. Evidence for a coseismic origin remains equivocal, however, for the many peat-mud contacts in Cascadia stratigraphic sequences that lack (1) contrasts in lithology or fossils indicative of more than half a meter of submergence, (2) well-studied tsunami deposits, or (3) precise ages needed for regional correlation. Paleoecologic studies of fossil assemblages are particularly important in estimating the size of sudden sea level changes recorded by abrupt peat-mud contacts and in helping to distinguish erosional and gradually formed contacts from coseismic contacts. Reconstruction of a history of great earthquakes for the Cascadia subduction zone will require rigorous application of the above criteria and many detailed investigations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2020

Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence

Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗
USGS2007

Forecast experiment: do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes?

The power law distribution of earthquake magnitudes and frequencies is a fundamental scaling relationship used for forecasting. However, can its slope (b value) be used on individual faults as a stress indicator? Some have concluded that b values drop just before large shocks. Others suggested that temporally stable low b value zones identify future large-earthquake locations. This study assesses the frequency of b value anomalies portending M ≥ 4.0 shocks versus how often they do not. I investigated M ≥ 4.0 Calaveras fault earthquakes because there have been 25 over the 37-year duration of the instrumental catalog on the most active southern half of the fault. With that relatively large sample, I conducted retrospective time and space earthquake forecasts. I calculated temporal b value changes in 5-km-radius cylindrical volumes of crust that were significant at 90% confidence, but these changes were poor forecasters of M ≥ 4.0 earthquakes. M ≥ 4.0 events were as likely to happen at times of high b values as they were at low ones. However, I could not rule out a hypothesis that spatial b value anomalies portend M ≥ 4.0 events; of 20 M ≥ 4 shocks that could be studied, 6 to 8 (depending on calculation method) occurred where b values were significantly less than the spatial mean, 1 to 2 happened above the mean, and 10 to 13 occurred within 90% confidence intervals of the mean and were thus inconclusive. Thus spatial b value variation might be a useful forecast tool, but resolution is poor, even on seismically active faults.

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